Evaluating methods for risk prediction of Covid-19 mortality in nursing home residents before and after vaccine availability: a retrospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND: SARS-CoV-2 vaccines are effective in reducing hospitalization, COVID-19 symptoms, and COVID-19 mortality for nursing home (NH) residents. We sought to compare the accuracy of various machine learning models, examine changes to model performance, and identify resident characteristics that have the strongest associations with 30-day COVID-19 mortality, before and after vaccine availability. METHODS: We conducted a population-based retrospective cohort study analyzing data from all NH facilities across Ontario, Canada. We included all residents diagnosed with SARS-CoV-2 and living in NHs between March 2020 and July 2021. We employed five machine learning algorithms to predict COVID-19 mortality, including logistic regression, LASSO regression, classification and regression trees (CART), random forests, and gradient boosted trees. The discriminative performance of the models was evaluated using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) for each model using 10-fold cross-validation. Model calibration was determined through evaluation of calibration slopes. Variable importance was calculated by repeatedly and randomly permutating the values of each predictor in the dataset and re-evaluating the model's performance. RESULTS: A total of 14,977 NH residents and 20 resident characteristics were included in the model. The cross-validated AUCs were similar across algorithms and ranged from 0.64 to 0.67. Gradient boosted trees and logistic regression had an AUC of 0.67 pre- and post-vaccine availability. CART had the lowest discrimination ability with an AUC of 0.64 pre-vaccine availability, and 0.65 post-vaccine availability. The most influential resident characteristics, irrespective of vaccine availability, included advanced age (≥ 75 years), health instability, functional and cognitive status, sex (male), and polypharmacy. CONCLUSIONS: The predictive accuracy and discrimination exhibited by all five examined machine learning algorithms were similar. Both logistic regression and gradient boosted trees exhibit comparable performance and display slight superiority over other machine learning algorithms. We observed consistent model performance both before and after vaccine availability. The influence of resident characteristics on COVID-19 mortality remained consistent across time periods, suggesting that changes to pre-vaccination screening practices for high-risk individuals are effective in the post-vaccination era.

Potentially Modifiable Risk Factors for Dementia and Mild Cognitive Impairment: An Umbrella Review and Meta-Analysis.

INTRODUCTION: The prevalence of mild and major neurocognitive disorders (NCDs), also referred to as mild cognitive impairment and dementia, is rising globally. The prevention of NCDs is a major global public health interest. We sought to synthesize the literature on potentially modifiable risk factors for NCDs. METHODS: We conducted an umbrella review using a systematic search across multiple databases to identify relevant systematic reviews and meta-analyses. Eligible reviews examined potentially modifiable risk factors for mild or major NCDs. We used a random-effects multi-level meta-analytic approach to synthesize risk ratios for each risk factor while accounting for overlap in the reviews. We further examined risk factors for major NCD due to two common etiologies: Alzheimer's disease and vascular dementia. RESULTS: A total of 45 reviews with 212 meta-analyses were synthesized. We identified fourteen broadly defined modifiable risk factors that were significantly associated with these disorders: alcohol consumption, body weight, depression, diabetes mellitus, diet, hypertension, less education, physical inactivity, sensory loss, sleep disturbance, smoking, social isolation, traumatic brain injury, and vitamin D deficiency. All 14 factors were associated with the risk of major NCD, and five were associated with mild NCD. We found considerably less research for vascular dementia and mild NCD. CONCLUSION: Our review quantifies the risk associated with 14 potentially modifiable risk factors for mild and major NCDs, including several factors infrequently included in dementia action plans. Prevention strategies should consider approaches that reduce the incidence and severity of these risk factors through health promotion, identification, and early management.

Effect of a Mobile Phone Intervention on Quitting Smoking in a Young Adult Population of Smokers: Randomized Controlled Trial.

BACKGROUND: Digital mobile technology presents a promising medium for reaching young adults with smoking cessation interventions because they are the heaviest users of this technology. OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study was to determine the efficacy of an evidence-informed smartphone app for smoking cessation, Crush the Crave (CTC), on reducing smoking prevalence among young adult smokers in comparison with an evidence-informed self-help guide, On the Road to Quitting (OnRQ). METHODS: A parallel, double-blind, randomized controlled trial with 2 arms was conducted in Canada to evaluate CTC. In total, 1599 young adult smokers (aged 19 to 29 years) intending to quit smoking in the next 30 days were recruited online and randomized to receive CTC or the control condition OnRQ for a period of 6 months. The primary outcome measure was self-reported continuous abstinence at the 6-month follow-up. RESULTS: Overall follow-up rates were 57.41% (918/1599) and 60.48% (967/1599) at 3 and 6 months, respectively. Moreover, 45.34% (725/1599) of participants completed baseline, 3-, and 6-month follow-up. Intention-to-treat analysis (last observation carried forward) showed that continuous abstinence (N=1599) at 6 months was not significantly different at 7.8% (64/820) for CTC versus 9.2% (72/779) for OnRQ (odds ratio; OR 0.83, 95% CI 0.59-1.18). Similarly, 30-day point prevalence abstinence at 6 months was not significantly different at 14.4% (118/820) and 16.9% (132/779) for CTC and OnRQ, respectively (OR 0.82, 95% CI 0.63-1.08). However, these rates of abstinence were favorable compared with unassisted 30-day quit rates of 11.5% among young adults. Secondary measures of quit attempts and the number of cigarettes smoked per day at 6-month follow-up did not reveal any significant differences between groups. For those who completed the 6-month follow-up, 85.1% (359/422) of young adult smokers downloaded CTC as compared with 81.8% (346/423) of OnRQ, χ21(N=845)=1.6, P=.23. Furthermore, OnRQ participants reported significantly higher levels of overall satisfaction (mean 3.3 [SD 1.1] vs mean 2.6 [SD 1.3]; t644=6.87, P<.001), perceived helpfulness (mean 5.8 [SD 2.4] vs mean 4.3 [SD 2.6], t657=8.0, P<.001), and frequency of use (mean 3.6 [SD 1.2] vs mean 3.2 [SD 1.1], t683=5.7, P<.001) compared with CTC participants. CONCLUSIONS: CTC was feasible for delivering cessation support but was not superior to a self-help guide in helping motivated young adults to quit smoking. CTC will benefit from further formative research to address satisfaction and usage. As smartphone apps may not serve as useful alternatives to printed self-help guides, there is a need to conduct further research to understand how digital mobile technology smoking cessation interventions for smoking cessation can be improved. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov NCT01983150; http://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT01983150 (Archived by WebCite at http://www.webcitation.org/6VGyc0W0i).

Crush the Crave: Development and Formative Evaluation of a Smartphone App for Smoking Cessation.

BACKGROUND: Emerging evidence supports the use of smartphone apps for smoking cessation, especially in young adults given their high smoking rates and high smartphone ownership rates. Although evaluative evidence is encouraging for supporting smoking cessation, there remains a paucity of research describing the design and development processes of mobile health (mHealth) interventions. OBJECTIVE: The aim of this paper was to describe the process of developing Crush the Crave (CTC), an evidence-informed app to support smoking cessation in young adults, and the results of a formative evaluation of app usage behavior, as part of a broader program of research that seeks to establish the effectiveness of the CTC app. METHODS: The Spiral Technology Action Research (STAR) 5-cycle model (listen, plan, do, act, and study) was employed to guide the development, implementation, and dissemination of CTC. The approach to development and formative evaluation included focus groups with young adult smokers (n=78) across 2 phases, analysis of the content of existing apps, 2 sessions with content experts, and Google Analytics to assess user behavior during a 12-month pilot. RESULTS: LISTEN-focus groups revealed young adult smoker preferences of (1) positive reinforcement, (2) personalization, (3) social support, (4) quit support, (5) tracking the behavior, and (6) tracking quit benefits. PLAN-informed by evidence for smoking cessation, young adult preferences and an assessment of popular cessation apps, content experts produced a mind map and a storyboard describing app content and structure. DO-focus groups with young adult smokers provided feedback on the first version of the app with opinions on content and suggestions for improvement such as providing alerts and distractions from craving. ACT-refinements were made, and app content was organized using the 4 key design components informed by principles of persuasive technology for behavior change: credibility, task support, dialogue support, and social support. CTC was launched in April 2013 and piloted from the period July 2013 to June 2014 where 1987 Android users had 18,567 sessions, resulting in 59,384 page views and 89.58% (1780/1987) of users returning within the same day to use CTC. STUDY-a pragmatic randomized controlled trial of CTC was launched in August 2014 to demonstrate that including mHealth technology as a population-based intervention can help young adult smokers to quit. The results of this phase will be presented in a subsequent publication. CONCLUSIONS: CTC is one of the first smoking cessation apps designed to meet the needs of young adult smokers. The development was informed by the inclusion of young adults in the design and the systematic application of multiple stakeholder input, scientific evidence, and theory. The STAR model approach was followed from the beginning of intervention development, which should facilitate optimization of mHealth interventions in the future. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov NCT01983150; http://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT01983150 (Archived by WebCite at http://www.webcitation.org/6VGyc0W0i).

A qualitative study of tobacco interventions for LGBTQ+ youth and young adults: overarching themes and key learnings.

BACKGROUND: Smoking prevalence is very high among lesbian, gay, bisexual, transgendered and queer (LGBTQ+) youth and young adults (YYA) compared to non-LGBTQ+ YYA. A knowledge gap exists on culturally appropriate and effective prevention and cessation efforts for members of this diverse community, as limited interventions have been developed with and for this population, and there are very few studies determining the impact of these interventions. This study identifies the most salient elements of LGBTQ+ cessation and prevention interventions from the perspective of LGBTQ+ YYA. METHODS: Three descriptions of interventions tailored for LGBTQ+ YYA (group cessation counselling, social marketing, and a mobile phone app with social media incorporated), were shared with LGBTQ+ YYA via 24 focus groups with 204 participants in Toronto and Ottawa, Canada. Open-ended questions focused on their feelings, likes and dislikes, and concerns about the culturally modified intervention descriptions. Framework analysis was used to identify overarching themes across all three intervention descriptions. RESULTS: The data revealed eight overarching themes across all three intervention descriptions. Smoking cessation and prevention interventions should have the following key attributes: 1) be LGBTQ+ - specific; 2) be accessible in terms of location, time, availability, and cost; 3) be inclusive, relatable, and highlight diversity; 4) incorporate LGBTQ+ peer support and counselling services; 5) integrate other activities beyond smoking; 6) be positive, motivational, uplifting, and empowering; 7) provide concrete coping mechanisms; and 8) integrate rewards and incentives. CONCLUSIONS: LGBTQ+ YYA focus group participants expressed a desire for an intervention that can incorporate these key elements. The mobile phone app and social media campaign were noted as potential interventions that could include all the essential elements.

LGBTQ Youth and Young Adult Perspectives on a Culturally Tailored Group Smoking Cessation Program.

INTRODUCTION: The prevalence of smoking among LGBTQ youth and young adults (YYAs) is much higher than that of non-LGBTQ young people. The current study explored LGBTQ YYA perceptions of a culturally tailored group smoking cessation counselling program, along with how the intervention could be improved. METHODS: We conducted focus groups (n = 24) with 204 LGBTQ YYAs in Toronto and Ottawa, Canada. Open-ended questions focused on their feelings, likes and dislikes, concerns and additional ideas for a culturally tailored group cessation counselling intervention. Focus group transcripts were coded thematically and analyzed. RESULTS: Overall, YYAs were ambivalent towards the concept of a culturally tailored, group cessation counselling program. Although several participants were attracted to the LGBTQ friendly and social benefits of such a program (eg, good support system), many also had concerns. Particularly, the possibility that other group members might trigger them to smoke was a frequently stated issue. Focus group members also noted lack of motivation to attend the group, and that the group program may be inaccessible depending on where and when the program was offered. Several suggestions were made as to how to ameliorate the expressed issues related to inaccessibility or lack of attractiveness. CONCLUSIONS: This study is among the first to gain the perspectives of LGBTQ YYAs on culturally tailored group cessation strategies in Canada. We identified components of group cessation programs that are both favored and not favored among LGBTQ YYAs, as well as suggestions as to how to make group cessation programs more appealing. IMPLICATIONS: This study is particularly relevant as smoking cessation programs are one of the most commonly offered and published cessation interventions for the LGBTQ community, yet little is understood in terms of preferences of LGBTQ YYA smokers. Given the disparity in the prevalence of smoking among LGBTQ young people compared to their non-LGBTQ peers, research on effective intervention strategies for this population is needed. Findings from this study can assist practitioners and researchers in designing interventions.

Tobacco use cessation interventions for lesbian, gay, bisexual, transgender and queer youth and young adults: A scoping review.

Smoking prevalence among LGBTQ + youth and young adults is alarmingly high compared to their non-LGBTQ + peers. The purpose of the scoping review was to assess the current state of smoking prevention and cessation intervention research for LGBTQ + youth and young adults, identify and describe these interventions and their effectiveness, and identify gaps in both practice and research. A search for published literature was conducted in PubMed, Scopus, CINAHL, PsychInfo, and LGBT Life, as well as an in-depth search of the grey literature. All English articles published or written between January 2000 and February 2016 were extracted. The search identified 24 records, of which 21 were included; 11 from peer reviewed sources and 10 from the grey literature. Of these 21, only one study targeted young adults and only one study had smoking prevention as an objective. Records were extracted into evidence tables using a modified PICO framework and a narrative synthesis was conducted. The evidence to date is drawn from methodologically weak studies; however, group cessation counselling demonstrates high quit rates and community-based programs have been implemented, although very little evidence of outcomes exist. Better-controlled research studies are needed and limited evidence exists to guide implementation of interventions for LGBTQ + youth and young adults. This scoping review identified a large research gap in the area of prevention and cessation interventions for LGBTQ youth and young adults. There is a need for effective, community-informed, and engaged interventions specific to LGBTQ + youth and young adults for the prevention and cessation of tobacco.

Perceptions Toward a Smoking Cessation App Targeting LGBTQ+ Youth and Young Adults: A Qualitative Framework Analysis of Focus Groups.

BACKGROUND: The prevalence of smoking among lesbian, gay, bisexual, trans, queer, and other sexual minority (LGBTQ+) youth and young adults (YYA) is significantly higher compared with that among non-LGBTQ+ persons. However, in the past, interventions were primarily group cessation classes that targeted LGBTQ+ persons of all ages. mHealth interventions offer an alternate and modern intervention platform for this subpopulation and may be of particular interest for young LGBTQ+ persons. OBJECTIVE: This study explored LGBTQ+ YYA (the potential users') perceptions of a culturally tailored mobile app for smoking cessation. Specifically, we sought to understand what LGBTQ+ YYA like and dislike about this potential cessation tool, along with how such interventions could be improved. METHODS: We conducted 24 focus groups with 204 LGBTQ+ YYA (aged 16-29 years) in Toronto and Ottawa, Canada. Participants reflected on how an app might support LGBTQ+ persons with smoking cessation. Participants indicated their feelings, likes and dislikes, concerns, and additional ideas for culturally tailored smoking cessation apps. Framework analysis was used to code transcripts and identify the overarching themes. RESULTS: Study findings suggested that LGBTQ+ YYA were eager about using culturally tailored mobile apps for smoking cessation. Accessibility, monitoring and tracking, connecting with community members, tailoring, connecting with social networks, and personalization were key reasons that were valued for a mobile app cessation program. However, concerns were raised about individual privacy and that not all individuals had access to a mobile phone, users might lose interest quickly, an app would need to be marketed effectively, and app users might cheat and lie about progress to themselves. Participants highlighted that the addition of distractions, rewards, notifications, and Web-based and print versions of the app would be extremely useful to mitigate some of their concerns. CONCLUSIONS: This study provided insight into the perspectives of LGBTQ+ YYA on a smoking cessation intervention delivered through a mobile app. The findings suggested a number of components of a mobile app that were valued and those that were concerning, as well as suggestions on how to make a mobile app cessation program successful. App development for this subpopulation should take into consideration the opinions of the intended users and involve them in the development and evaluation of mobile-based smoking cessation programs.