Long-term cardiovascular risks and the impact of statin treatment on socioeconomic inequalities: a microsimulation model.

BACKGROUND: UK cardiovascular disease (CVD) incidence and mortality have declined in recent decades but socioeconomic inequalities persist. AIM: To present a new CVD model, and project health outcomes and the impact of guideline-recommended statin treatment across quintiles of socioeconomic deprivation in the UK. DESIGN AND SETTING: A lifetime microsimulation model was developed using 117 896 participants in 16 statin trials, 501 854 UK Biobank (UKB) participants, and quality-of-life data from national health surveys. METHOD: A CVD microsimulation model was developed using risk equations for myocardial infarction, stroke, coronary revascularisation, cancer, and vascular and non-vascular death, estimated using trial data. The authors calibrated and further developed this model in the UKB cohort, including further characteristics and a diabetes risk equation, and validated the model in UKB and Whitehall II cohorts. The model was used to predict CVD incidence, life expectancy, quality-adjusted life years (QALYs), and the impact of UK guideline-recommended statin treatment across socioeconomic deprivation quintiles. RESULTS: Age, sex, socioeconomic deprivation, smoking, hypertension, diabetes, and cardiovascular events were key CVD risk determinants. Model-predicted event rates corresponded well to observed rates across participant categories. The model projected strong gradients in remaining life expectancy, with 4-5-year (5-8 QALYs) gaps between the least and most socioeconomically deprived quintiles. Guideline-recommended statin treatment was projected to increase QALYs, with larger gains in quintiles of higher deprivation. CONCLUSION: The study demonstrated the potential of guideline-recommended statin treatment to reduce socioeconomic inequalities. This CVD model is a novel resource for individualised long-term projections of health outcomes of CVD treatments.

Angiotensin receptor blockers and ß blockers in Marfan syndrome: an individual patient data meta-analysis of randomised trials.

BACKGROUND: Angiotensin receptor blockers (ARBs) and ß blockers are widely used in the treatment of Marfan syndrome to try to reduce the rate of progressive aortic root enlargement characteristic of this condition, but their separate and joint effects are uncertain. We aimed to determine these effects in a collaborative individual patient data meta-analysis of randomised trials of these treatments. METHODS: In this meta-analysis, we identified relevant trials of patients with Marfan syndrome by systematically searching MEDLINE, Embase, and CENTRAL from database inception to Nov 2, 2021. Trials were eligible if they involved a randomised comparison of an ARB versus control or an ARB versus ß blocker. We used individual patient data from patients with no prior aortic surgery to estimate the effects of: ARB versus control (placebo or open control); ARB versus ß blocker; and indirectly, ß blocker versus control. The primary endpoint was the annual rate of change of body surface area-adjusted aortic root dimension Z score, measured at the sinuses of Valsalva. FINDINGS: We identified ten potentially eligible trials including 1836 patients from our search, from which seven trials and 1442 patients were eligible for inclusion in our main analyses. Four trials involving 676 eligible participants compared ARB with control. During a median follow-up of 3 years, allocation to ARB approximately halved the annual rate of change in the aortic root Z score (mean annual increase 0·07 [SE 0·02] ARB vs 0·13 [SE 0·02] control; absolute difference -0·07 [95% CI -0·12 to -0·01]; p=0·012). Prespecified secondary subgroup analyses showed that the effects of ARB were particularly large in those with pathogenic variants in fibrillin-1, compared with those without such variants (heterogeneity p=0·0050), and there was no evidence to suggest that the effect of ARB varied with ß-blocker use (heterogeneity p=0·54). Three trials involving 766 eligible participants compared ARBs with ß blockers. During a median follow-up of 3 years, the annual change in the aortic root Z score was similar in the two groups (annual increase -0·08 [SE 0·03] in ARB groups vs -0·11 [SE 0·02] in ß-blocker groups; absolute difference 0·03 [95% CI -0·05 to 0·10]; p=0·48). Thus, indirectly, the difference in the annual change in the aortic root Z score between ß blockers and control was -0·09 (95% CI -0·18 to 0·00; p=0·042). INTERPRETATION: In people with Marfan syndrome and no previous aortic surgery, ARBs reduced the rate of increase of the aortic root Z score by about one half, including among those taking a ß blocker. The effects of ß blockers were similar to those of ARBs. Assuming additivity, combination therapy with both ARBs and ß blockers from the time of diagnosis would provide even greater reductions in the rate of aortic enlargement than either treatment alone, which, if maintained over a number of years, would be expected to lead to a delay in the need for aortic surgery. FUNDING: Marfan Foundation, the Oxford British Heart Foundation Centre for Research Excellence, and the UK Medical Research Council.

Mortality in People with Type 2 Diabetes Following SARS-CoV-2 Infection: A Population Level Analysis of Potential Risk Factors.

INTRODUCTION: Research is ongoing to increase our understanding of how much a previous diagnosis of type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) affects someone's risk of becoming seriously unwell following a COVID-19 infection. In this study we set out to determine the relative likelihood of death following COVID-19 infection in people with T2DM when compared to those without T2DM. This was conducted as an urban population study and based in the UK. METHODS: Analysis of electronic health record data was performed relating to people living in the Greater Manchester conurbation (population 2.82 million) who had a recorded diagnosis of T2DM and subsequent COVID-19 confirmed infection. Each individual with T2DM (n = 13,807) was matched with three COVID-19-infected non-diabetes controls (n = 39,583). Data were extracted from the Greater Manchester Care Record (GMCR) database for the period 1 January 2020 to 30 June 2021. Social disadvantage was assessed through Townsend scores. Death rates were compared in people with T2DM to their respective non-diabetes controls; potential predictive factors influencing the relative likelihood of admission were ascertained using univariable and multivariable logistic regression. RESULTS: For individuals with T2DM, their mortality rate after a COVID-19 positive test was 7.7% vs 6.0% in matched controls; the relative risk (RR) of death was 1.28. From univariate analysis performed within the group of individuals with T2DM, the likelihood of death following a COVID-19 recorded infection was lower in people taking metformin, a sodium-glucose cotransporter 2 inhibitor (SGLT2i) or a glucagon-like peptide 1 (GLP-1) agonist. Estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) and hypertension were associated with increased mortality and had odds ratios of 0.96 (95% confidence interval 0.96-0.97) and 1.92 (95% confidence interval 1.68-2.20), respectively. Likelihood of death following a COVID-19 infection was also higher in those people with a diagnosis of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) or severe enduring mental illness but not with asthma, and in people taking aspirin/clopidogrel/insulin. Smoking in people with T2DM significantly increased mortality rate (odds ratio of 1.46; 95% confidence interval 1.29-1.65). In a combined analysis of patients with T2DM and controls, multiple regression modelling indicated that the factors independently relating to a higher likelihood of death (accounting for 26% of variance) were T2DM, age, male gender and social deprivation (higher Townsend score). CONCLUSION: Following confirmed infection with COVID-19 a number of factors are associated with mortality in individuals with T2DM. Prescription of metformin, SGLT2is or GLP-1 agonists and non-smoking status appeared to be associated with a reduced the risk of death for people with T2DM. Age, male sex and social disadvantage are associated with an increased risk of death.

The Postprandial Glycaemic and Hormonal Responses Following the Ingestion of a Novel, Ready-to-Drink Shot Containing a Low Dose of Whey Protein in Centrally Obese and Lean Adult Males: A Randomised Controlled Trial.

Purpose: Elevated postprandial glycaemia [PPG] increases the risk of cardiometabolic complications in insulin-resistant, centrally obese individuals. Therefore, strategies that improve PPG are of importance for this population. Consuming large doses of whey protein [WP] before meals reduces PPG by delaying gastric emptying and stimulating the secretion of the incretin peptides, glucose-dependent insulinotropic polypeptide [GIP] and glucagon-like peptide 1 [GLP-1]. It is unclear if these effects are observed after smaller amounts of WP and what impact central adiposity has on these gastrointestinal processes. Methods: In a randomised-crossover design, 12 lean and 12 centrally obese adult males performed two 240 min mixed-meal tests, ~5-10 d apart. After an overnight fast, participants consumed a novel, ready-to-drink WP shot (15 g) or volume-matched water (100 ml; PLA) 10 min before a mixed-nutrient meal. Gastric emptying was estimated by oral acetaminophen absorbance. Interval blood samples were collected to measure glucose, insulin, GIP, GLP-1, and acetaminophen. Results: WP reduced PPG area under the curve [AUC0-60] by 13 and 18.2% in the centrally obese and lean cohorts, respectively (both p <0.001). In both groups, the reduction in PPG was accompanied by a two-three-fold increase in GLP-1 and delayed gastric emptying. Despite similar GLP-1 responses during PLA, GLP-1 secretion during the WP trial was ~27% lower in centrally obese individuals compared to lean (p = 0.001). In lean participants, WP increased the GLP-1ACTIVE/TOTAL ratio comparative to PLA (p = 0.004), indicative of reduced GLP-1 degradation. Conversely, no treatment effects for GLP-1ACTIVE/TOTAL were seen in obese subjects. Conclusion: Pre-meal ingestion of a novel, ready-to-drink WP shot containing just 15 g of dietary protein reduced PPG in lean and centrally obese males. However, an attenuated GLP-1 response to mealtime WP and increased incretin degradation might impact the efficacy of nutritional strategies utilising the actions of GLP-1 to regulate PPG in centrally obese populations. Whether these defects are caused by an individual's insulin resistance, their obese state, or other obesity-related ailments needs further investigation. Clinical Trial Registration: ISRCTN.com, identifier [ISRCTN95281775]. https://www.isrctn.com/.

The effect of dietary phytochemicals on nuclear factor erythroid 2-related factor 2 (Nrf2) activation: a systematic review of human intervention trials.

We conducted a systematic review of human trials examining the effects of dietary phytochemicals on Nrf2 activation. In accordance with the PRISMA guidelines, Medline, Embase and CAB abstracts were searched for articles from inception until March 2020. Studies in adult humans that measured Nrf2 activation (gene or protein expression changes) following ingestion of a phytochemical, either alone or in combination were included. The study was pre-registered on the Prospero database (Registration Number: CRD42020176121). Twenty-nine full-texts were retrieved and reviewed for analysis; of these, eighteen were included in the systematic review. Most of the included participants were healthy, obese or type 2 diabetics. Study quality was assessed using the Cochrane Collaboration Risk of Bias Assessment tool. Twelve different compounds were examined in the included studies: curcumin, resveratrol and sulforaphane were the most common (n = 3 each). Approximately half of the studies reported increases in Nrf2 activation (n = 10); however, many were of poor quality and had an unclear or high risk of bias. There is currently limited evidence that phytochemicals activate Nrf2 in humans. Well controlled human intervention trials are needed to corroborate the findings from in vitro and animal studies.

Zinc-alpha2-glycoprotein, dysglycaemia and insulin resistance: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

To systematically review the current literature investigating associations between zinc-alpha2-glycoprotein (ZAG) and dysglycaemia (including type 2 diabetes (T2DM), poly-cystic-ovary syndrome (PCOS), pre-diabetes or insulin resistance). This included relationships between ZAG and continuous measures of insulin and glucose. Additionally, we performed a meta-analysis to estimate the extent that ZAG differs between individuals with or without dysglycaemia; whilst examining the potential influence of adiposity. A systematic search was performed on four databases for studies on circulating ZAG concentrations in adult human populations, comparing healthy controls to individuals with dysglycaemia. Key characteristics, including the mean ZAG concentrations (mg∙L-1), and any correlational statistics between ZAG and continuous measures of glucose, glycated haemoglobin (HbA1c) or insulin were extracted. Meta-analyses were performed to compare metabolically healthy controls to cases, and on studies that compared controls and cases considered overweight or obese (body mass index (BMI) ≥25 kg.m2). 1575 papers were identified and 14 studies (16 cohorts) were considered eligible for inclusion. Circulating ZAG was lower in individuals with dysglycaemia compared to metabolically healthy controls (-4.14 [-8.17, -0.11] mg.L-1; I2 = 98.5%; p < 0.001). When using data from only studies with overweight or obese groups with or without dysglycaemia (three studies (four cohorts); pooled n = 332), the difference in circulating ZAG was no longer significant (-0.30 [-3.67, 3.07] mg. L-1; I2 = 28.0%; p = 0.225). These data suggest that ZAG may be implicated in dysglycaemia, although there was significant heterogeneity across different studies and the mediating effect of adiposity cannot be excluded. Therefore, more research is needed before robust conclusions can be drawn.

Effects of gastroprotectant drugs for the prevention and treatment of peptic ulcer disease and its complications: a meta-analysis of randomised trials.

BACKGROUND: Gastroprotectant drugs are used for the prevention and treatment of peptic ulcer disease and might reduce its associated complications, but reliable estimates of the effects of gastroprotectants in different clinical settings are scarce. We aimed to examine the effects of proton-pump inhibitors (PPIs), prostaglandin analogues, and histamine-2 receptor antagonists (H2RAs) in different clinical circumstances by doing meta-analyses of tabular data from all relevant unconfounded randomised trials of gastroprotectant drugs. METHODS: We searched MEDLINE and Embase from Jan 1, 1950, to Dec 31, 2015, to identify unconfounded, randomised trials of a gastroprotectant drug (defined as a PPI, prostaglandin analogue, or H2RA) versus control, or versus another gastroprotectant. Two independent researchers reviewed the search results and extracted the prespecified outcomes and key characteristics for each trial. We did meta-analyses of the effects of gastroprotectant drugs on ulcer development, bleeding, and mortality overall, according to the class of gastroprotectant, and according to the individual drug within a gastroprotectant class. FINDINGS: We identified comparisons of gastroprotectant versus control in 849 trials (142 485 participants): 580 prevention trials (110 626 participants), 233 healing trials (24 033 participants), and 36 trials for the treatment of acute upper gastrointestinal bleeding (7826 participants). Comparisons of one gastroprotectant drug versus another were available in 345 trials (64 905 participants), comprising 160 prevention trials (32 959 participants), 167 healing trials (28 306 participants), and 18 trials for treatment of acute upper gastrointestinal bleeding (3640 participants). The median number of patients in each trial was 78 (IQR 44·0-210·5) and the median duration was 1·4 months (0·9-2·8). In prevention trials, gastroprotectant drugs reduced development of endoscopic ulcers (odds ratio [OR] 0·27, 95% CI 0·25-0·29; p<0·0001), symptomatic ulcers (0·25, 0·22-0·29; p<0·0001), and upper gastrointestinal bleeding (0·40, 0·32-0·50; p<0·0001), but did not significantly reduce mortality (0·85, 0·69-1·04; p=0·11). Larger proportional reductions in upper gastrointestinal bleeding were observed for PPIs than for other gastroprotectant drugs (PPIs 0·21, 99% CI 0·12-0·36; prostaglandin analogues 0·63, 0·35-1·12; H2RAs 0·49, 0·30-0·80; phet=0·0005). Gastroprotectant drugs were effective in preventing bleeding irrespective of the use of non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (phet=0·56). In healing trials, gastroprotectants increased endoscopic ulcer healing (3·49, 95% CI 3·28-3·72; p<0·0001), with PPIs more effective (5·22, 99% CI 4·00-6·80) than prostaglandin analogues (2·27, 1·91-2·70) and H2RAs (3·80, 3·44-4·20; phet<0·0001). In trials among patients with acute bleeding, gastroprotectants reduced further bleeding (OR 0·68, 95% CI 0·60-0·78; p<0·0001), blood transfusion (0·75, 0·65-0·88; p=0·0003), further endoscopic intervention (0·56, 0·45-0·70; p<0·0001), and surgery (0·72, 0·61-0·84; p<0·0001), but did not significantly reduce mortality (OR 0·90, 0·72-1·11; p=0·31). PPIs had larger protective effects than did H2RAs for further bleeding (phet=0·0107) and blood transfusion (phet=0·0130). INTERPRETATION: Gastroprotectants, in particular PPIs, reduce the risk of peptic ulcer disease and its complications and promote healing of peptic ulcers in a wide range of clinical circumstances. However, this meta-analysis might have overestimated the benefits owing to small study bias. FUNDING: UK Medical Research Council and the British Heart Foundation.

Role of road traffic accidents and other traumatic events in the onset of chronic widespread pain: Results from a population-based prospective study.

OBJECTIVE: To determine the relationship between physically traumatic events and the onset of chronic widespread pain (CWP). METHODS: This was a case-control study nested within a large prospective cohort. CWP was determined, by questionnaire, as per the American College of Rheumatology fibromyalgia classification criteria. Data were also collected on psychological health, health behavior, and sleep problems. Participants without CWP were then followed up at 4 years, and (new-onset) CWP was determined in the same manner. At followup, participants were also asked to report whether they had experienced any of a series of physically traumatic events between baseline and followup. RESULTS: A total of 2,069 individuals (46.6%) participated at followup, and 241 of these individuals (11.6%) reported CWP. More than one-third of the study population reported at least 1 physically traumatic event; although these individuals were more likely to develop CWP, this relationship was completely attenuated after adjustment for confounding (odds ratio 1.01, 95% confidence interval 0.73-1.40). However, there was some evidence to suggest that involvement in a road traffic accident, specifically, may confer an increase in the risk of CWP onset. CONCLUSION: This study provides support for the "at risk" phenotype hypothesis, where individuals characterized by poorer health and psychological variables may be predisposed to develop CWP following a traumatic trigger. However, although this has been seen with road traffic accidents, it is not the case with other events. Future research should examine what is peculiar about an accident, or about one's reaction to it, that confers this increase in the risk of CWP onset.

No evidence for a role of the catechol-O-methyltransferase pain sensitivity haplotypes in chronic widespread pain.

OBJECTIVES: The aim of this study was to investigate the association between the catechol-O-methyltransferase (COMT) 'pain sensitivity' haplotypes and chronic widespread pain (CWP) in two distinct cohorts. METHODS: Cases of CWP and controls free of pain were selected from two population-based studies: the Epidemiology of Functional Disorders study (EPIFUND) (UK) and the European Male Ageing Study (European). The number of cases and controls were 164 and 172, and 204 and 935, respectively. Identical American College of Rheumatology criteria were used in both studies to ascertain CWP status. The EPIFUND study had three time points and cases were classified as subjects with CWP at two or three time points and controls as those free of pain at all three time points. Four single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNP): rs6269, rs4633, rs4818 and rs4680 (V158M) were genotyped using Sequenom technology. Allele and genotype frequencies were compared and haplotype analysis was conducted using PLINK software. RESULTS: No differences in allele or genotype frequencies for any of the four SNP were observed between cases and controls for either cohort. Haplotype analysis also showed no difference in the frequency of haplotypes between cases and controls. CONCLUSIONS: There was no evidence of association between the COMT 'pain sensitivity' haplotypes and CWP in two population-based cohorts.