Predictive value of clinical and laboratory features for the main febrile diseases in children living in Tanzania: A prospective observational study.

BACKGROUND: To construct evidence-based guidelines for management of febrile illness, it is essential to identify clinical predictors for the main causes of fever, either to diagnose the disease when no laboratory test is available or to better target testing when a test is available. The objective was to investigate clinical predictors of several diseases in a cohort of febrile children attending outpatient clinics in Tanzania, whose diagnoses have been established after extensive clinical and laboratory workup. METHOD: From April to December 2008, 1005 consecutive children aged 2 months to 10 years with temperature ≥38°C attending two outpatient clinics in Dar es Salaam were included. Demographic characteristics, symptoms and signs, comorbidities, full blood count and liver enzyme level were investigated by bi- and multi-variate analyses (Chan, et al., 2008). To evaluate accuracy of combined predictors to construct algorithms, classification and regression tree (CART) analyses were also performed. RESULTS: 62 variables were studied. Between 4 and 15 significant predictors to rule in (aLR+>1) or rule out (aLR+<1) the disease were found in the multivariate analysis for the 7 more frequent outcomes. For malaria, the strongest predictor was temperature ≥40°C (aLR+8.4, 95%CI 4.7-15), for typhoid abdominal tenderness (5.9,2.5-11), for urinary tract infection (UTI) age ≥3 years (0.20,0-0.50), for radiological pneumonia abnormal chest auscultation (4.3,2.8-6.1), for acute HHV6 infection dehydration (0.18,0-0.75), for bacterial disease (any type) chest indrawing (19,8.2-60) and for viral disease (any type) jaundice (0.28,0.16-0.41). Other clinically relevant and easy to assess predictors were also found: malaria could be ruled in by recent travel, typhoid by jaundice, radiological pneumonia by very fast breathing and UTI by fever duration of ≥4 days. The CART model for malaria included temperature, travel, jaundice and hepatomegaly (sensitivity 80%, specificity 64%); typhoid: age ≥2 years, jaundice, abdominal tenderness and adenopathy (46%,93%); UTI: age <2 years, temperature ≥40°C, low weight and pale nails (20%,96%); radiological pneumonia: very fast breathing, chest indrawing and leukocytosis (38%,97%); acute HHV6 infection: less than 2 years old, (no) dehydration, (no) jaundice and (no) rash (86%,51%); bacterial disease: chest indrawing, chronic condition, temperature ≥39.7°c and fever duration >3 days (45%,83%); viral disease: runny nose, cough and age <2 years (68%,76%). CONCLUSION: A better understanding of the relative performance of these predictors might be of great help for clinicians to be able to better decide when to test, treat, refer or simply observe a sick child, in order to decrease morbidity and mortality, but also to avoid unnecessary antimicrobial prescription. These predictors have been used to construct a new algorithm for the management of childhood illnesses called ALMANACH.

Safety and immunogenicity of a chimpanzee adenovirus-vectored Ebola vaccine in healthy adults: a randomised, double-blind, placebo-controlled, dose-finding, phase 1/2a study.

BACKGROUND: The ongoing Ebola outbreak led to accelerated efforts to test vaccine candidates. On the basis of a request by WHO, we aimed to assess the safety and immunogenicity of the monovalent, recombinant, chimpanzee adenovirus type-3 vector-based Ebola Zaire vaccine (ChAd3-EBO-Z). METHODS: We did this randomised, double-blind, placebo-controlled, dose-finding, phase 1/2a trial at the Centre Hospitalier Universitaire Vaudois, Lausanne, Switzerland. Participants (aged 18-65 years) were randomly assigned (2:2:1), via two computer-generated randomisation lists for individuals potentially deployed in endemic areas and those not deployed, to receive a single intramuscular dose of high-dose vaccine (5 × 10(10) viral particles), low-dose vaccine (2·5 × 10(10) viral particles), or placebo. Deployed participants were allocated to only the vaccine groups. Group allocation was concealed from non-deployed participants, investigators, and outcome assessors. The safety evaluation was not masked for potentially deployed participants, who were therefore not included in the safety analysis for comparison between the vaccine doses and placebo, but were pooled with the non-deployed group to compare immunogenicity. The main objectives were safety and immunogenicity of ChAd3-EBO-Z. We did analysis by intention to treat. This trial is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, number NCT02289027. FINDINGS: Between Oct 24, 2014, and June 22, 2015, we randomly assigned 120 participants, of whom 18 (15%) were potentially deployed and 102 (85%) were non-deployed, to receive high-dose vaccine (n=49), low-dose vaccine (n=51), or placebo (n=20). Participants were followed up for 6 months. No vaccine-related serious adverse events were reported. We recorded local adverse events in 30 (75%) of 40 participants in the high-dose group, 33 (79%) of 42 participants in the low-dose group, and five (25%) of 20 participants in the placebo group. Fatigue or malaise was the most common systemic adverse event, reported in 25 (62%) participants in the high-dose group, 25 (60%) participants in the low-dose group, and five (25%) participants in the placebo group, followed by headache, reported in 23 (57%), 25 (60%), and three (15%) participants, respectively. Fever occurred 24 h after injection in 12 (30%) participants in the high-dose group and 11 (26%) participants in the low-dose group versus one (5%) participant in the placebo group. Geometric mean concentrations of IgG antibodies against Ebola glycoprotein peaked on day 28 at 51 µg/mL (95% CI 41·1-63·3) in the high-dose group, 44·9 µg/mL (25·8-56·3) in the low-dose group, and 5·2 µg/mL (3·5-7·6) in the placebo group, with respective response rates of 96% (95% CI 85·7-99·5), 96% (86·5-99·5), and 5% (0·1-24·9). Geometric mean concentrations decreased by day 180 to 25·5 µg/mL (95% CI 20·6-31·5) in the high-dose group, 22·1 µg/mL (19·3-28·6) in the low-dose group, and 3·2 µg/mL (2·4-4·9) in the placebo group. 28 (57%) participants given high-dose vaccine and 31 (61%) participants given low-dose vaccine developed glycoprotein-specific CD4 cell responses, and 33 (67%) and 35 (69%), respectively, developed CD8 responses. INTERPRETATION: ChAd3-EBO-Z was safe and well tolerated, although mild to moderate systemic adverse events were common. A single dose was immunogenic in almost all vaccine recipients. Antibody responses were still significantly present at 6 months. There was no significant difference between doses for safety and immunogenicity outcomes. This acceptable safety profile provides a reliable basis to proceed with phase 2 and phase 3 efficacy trials in Africa. FUNDING: Swiss State Secretariat for Education, Research and Innovation (SERI), through the EU Horizon 2020 Research and Innovation Programme.