A dynamic prognostic model to predict survival in post-polycythemia vera myelofibrosis.

Post-polycythemia vera myelofibrosis (post-PV MF) is a late evolution of PV. In 647 patients with PV, we found that leukocytosis leukocyte count>(15x10(9)/L) at diagnosis is a risk factor for the evolution of post-PV MF. In a series of 68 patients who developed post-PV MF, median survival was 5.7 years. Hemoglobin level less than 100 g/L (10 g/dL) at diagnosis of post-PV MF was an independent risk factor for survival. The course of post-PV MF, however, is a dynamic process that implies a progressive worsening of clinical parameters. Using a multivariate Cox proportional hazard regression with time-dependent covariates, we found that a dynamic score based on hemoglobin level less than 100 g/L (10 g/dL), platelet count less than 100x10(9)/L, and leukocyte count more than 30x10(9)/L is useful to predict survival at any time from diagnosis of post-PV MF. The resulting hazard ratio of the score was 4.2 (95% CI: 2.4-7.7; P<.001), meaning a 4.2-fold worsening of survival for each risk factor acquired during follow up. In conclusion, leukocytosis at diagnosis of PV is a risk factor for evolution in post-PV MF. A dynamic score based on hemoglobin level, and platelet and leukocyte count predicts survival at any time from diagnosis of post-PV MF.

Familial chronic myeloproliferative disorders: clinical phenotype and evidence of disease anticipation.

PURPOSE: Chronic myeloproliferative disorders (CMDs) have sporadic occurrence. However, familial clustering is reported. The purpose of this study was to assess the prevalence and the clinical phenotype of familial CMDs, and to study the anticipation of disease onset in successive generations. PATIENTS AND METHODS: Among 458 patients with apparently sporadic CMDs, an interview-based investigation of family history was performed to identify familial cases. The clinical phenotype of familial CMDs was compared with that of sporadic CMDs. Anticipation was studied evaluating age at diagnosis and telomere length in successive generations. RESULTS: Among 458 patients with apparently sporadic CMDs, the prevalence of familial cases was 7.6% (35 pedigrees; 75 patients). Kolmogorov-Smirnov and two-tailed Fisher's exact tests did not demonstrate significant differences in clinical presentation between patients with familial and sporadic CMDs. Within 544 person-years of follow-up, patients with familial CMDs developed similar complications and disease evolutions as those with sporadic CMDs. The comparison of second-generation and first-generation patients showed a significantly younger age at diagnosis (Wilcoxon matched-pair test, P = .001) and a significantly higher age-dependent hazard of CMD onset (Nelson-Aalen method, P < .001) in patients of the second generation. A significant shortening of telomere length was highlighted in offspring compared with parent (P = .043). CONCLUSION: This study indicates that a thorough investigation of family history should be part of the initial work-up of patients with CMDs. Patients with familial CMDs show the same clinical features and suffer the same complications as patients with sporadic disease. Age distribution between parent and offspring and telomere length shortening provide evidence of disease anticipation.