Uncovering physical activity trade-offs in transportation policy: A spatial agent-based model of Bogotá, Colombia.

BACKGROUND: Transportation policies can impact health outcomes while simultaneously promoting social equity and environmental sustainability. We developed an agent-based model (ABM) to simulate the impacts of fare subsidies and congestion taxes on commuter decision-making and travel patterns. We report effects on mode share, travel time and transport-related physical activity (PA), including the variability of effects by socioeconomic strata (SES), and the trade-offs that may need to be considered in the implementation of these policies in a context with high levels of necessity-based physical activity. METHODS: The ABM design was informed by local stakeholder engagement. The demographic and spatial characteristics of the in-silico city, and its residents, were informed by local surveys and empirical studies. We used ridership and travel time data from the 2019 Bogotá Household Travel Survey to calibrate and validate the model by SES. We then explored the impacts of fare subsidy and congestion tax policy scenarios. RESULTS: Our model reproduced commuting patterns observed in Bogotá, including substantial necessity-based walking for transportation. At the city-level, congestion taxes fractionally reduced car use, including among mid-to-high SES groups but not among low SES commuters. Neither travel times nor physical activity levels were impacted at the city level or by SES. Comparatively, fare subsidies promoted city-level public transportation (PT) ridership, particularly under a 'free-fare' scenario, largely through reductions in walking trips. 'Free fare' policies also led to a large reduction in very long walking times and an overall reduction in the commuting-based attainment of physical activity guidelines. Differential effects were observed by SES, with free fares promoting PT ridership primarily among low-and-middle SES groups. These shifts to PT reduced median walking times among all SES groups, particularly low-SES groups. Moreover, the proportion of low-to-mid SES commuters meeting weekly physical activity recommendations decreased under the 'freefare' policy, with no change observed among high-SES groups. CONCLUSIONS: Transport policies can differentially impact SES-level disparities in necessity-based walking and travel times. Understanding these impacts is critical in shaping transportation policies that balance the dual aims of reducing SES-level disparities in travel time (and time poverty) and the promotion of choice-based physical activity.

Trends in the contribution of greenhouse gas emissions from food and beverage purchases in Mexico: 1989-2020.

BACKGROUND: Assessing the trends in dietary GHGE considering the social patterning is critical for understanding the role that food systems have played and will play in global emissions in countries of the global south. Our aim is to describe dietary greenhouse gas emissions (GHGE) trends (overall and by food group) using data from household food purchase surveys from 1989 to 2020 in Mexico, overall and by education levels and urbanicity. METHODS: We used cross-sectional data from 16 rounds of Mexico's National Income and Expenditure Survey, a nationally representative survey. The sample size ranged from 11,051 in 1989 to 88,398 in 2020. We estimated the mean total GHGE per adult-equivalent per day (kg CO2-eq/ad-eq/d) for every survey year. Then, we estimated the relative GHGE contribution by food group for each household. These same analyses were conducted stratifying by education and urbanicity. RESULTS: The mean total GHGE increased from 3.70 (95%CI: 3.57, 3.82) to 4.90 (95% CI 4.62, 5.18) kg CO2-eq/ad-eq/d between 1989 and 2014 and stayed stable between 4.63 (95% CI: 4.53, 4.72) and 4.89 (95% CI: 4.81, 4.96) kg CO2-eq/ad-eq/d from 2016 onwards. In 1989, beef (19.89%, 95% CI: 19.18, 20.59), dairy (16.87%, 95% CI: 16.30, 17.42)), corn (9.61%, 95% CI: 9.00, 10.22), legumes (7.03%, 95% CI: 6.59, 7.46), and beverages (6.99%, 95% CI: 6.66, 7.32) had the highest relative contribution to food GHGE; by 2020, beef was the top contributor (17.68%, 95%CI: 17.46, 17.89) followed by fast food (14.17%, 95% CI: 13.90, 14.43), dairy (11.21%, 95%CI: 11.06, 11.36), beverages (10.09%, 95%CI: 9.94, 10.23), and chicken (10.04%, 95%CI: 9.90, 10.17). Households with higher education levels and those in more urbanized areas contributed more to dietary GHGE across the full period. However, households with lower education levels and those in rural areas had the highest increase in these emissions from 1989 to 2020. CONCLUSIONS: Our results provide insights into the food groups in which the 2023 Mexican Dietary Guidelines may require to focus on improving human and planetary health.

Commuter's personal exposure to air pollutants after the implementation of a cable car for public transport: Results of the natural experiment TrUST.

Commuters in urban settlements are frequently exposed to high concentrations of air pollutants due to their proximity to mobile sources, making exposure to traffic-related air pollutants an important public health issue. Recent trends in urban transport towards zero- and low-tailpipe emission alternatives will likely result in decreased exposure to air pollutants. The TrUST (Urban transformations and health) study offers a unique opportunity to understand the impacts of a new cable car (TransMiCable) in underserved communities within Bogotá, Colombia. The aims of this study are to assess the personal exposure to fine particulate matter (PM2.5), equivalent Black Carbon (eBC), and Carbon Monoxide (CO) in transport micro-environments and to estimate the inhaled dose per trip during mandatory multimodal trips before and after the implementation of the TransMiCable. We collected personal exposure data for Bus-Rapid-Transit (BRT) feeder buses, regular buses, informal transport, pedestrians, and TransMiCable. TransMiCable showed lower exposure concentration compared to BRT feeder and regular buses (PM2.5: 23.6 vs. 87.0 µg m-3 (P ≤ 0.001) and eBC: 5.2 vs. 28.2 µg m-3 (P ≤ 0.001), respectively). The mean concentration of PM2.5 and eBC inside the TransMiCable cabins were 62 % and 82 % lower than the mean concentrations in buses. Furthermore, using a Monte Carlo simulation model, we found that including the TransMiCable as a feeder is related to a 54.4 µg/trip reduction in PM2.5 inhaled dose and 35.8 µg/trip in eBC per trip. Those changes represent a 27 % and 34 % reduction in an inhaled dose per trip, respectively. Our results show that PM2.5, eBC, and CO inhaled dose for TransMiCable users is reduced due to lower exposure concentration inside its cabins and shorter travel time. The implementation of a cable car in Bogotá is likely to reduce air pollution exposure in transport micro-environments used by vulnerable populations living in semi-informal settlements.

Inequalities by Income in the Prevalence of Cardiovascular Disease and Its Risk Factors in the Adult Population of Catalonia.

Background Understanding the magnitude of cardiovascular disease (CVD) inequalities is the first step toward addressing them. The linkage of socioeconomic and clinical data in universal health care settings provides critical information to characterize CVD inequalities. Methods and Results We employed a prospective cohort design using electronic health records data from all residents of Catalonia aged 18+ between January and December of 2019 (N=6 332 228). We calculated age-adjusted sex-specific prevalence of 5 CVD risk factors (diabetes, hypertension, hyperlipidemia, obesity, and smoking), and 4 CVDs (coronary heart disease, cerebrovascular disease, atrial fibrillation, and heart failure). We categorized income into high, moderate, low, and very low according to individual income (tied to prescription copayments) and receipt of welfare support. We found large inequalities in CVD and CVD risk factors among men and women. CVD risk factors with the largest inequalities were diabetes, smoking, and obesity, with prevalence rates 2- or 3-fold higher for those with very low (versus high) income. CVDs with the largest inequalities were cerebrovascular disease and heart failure, with prevalence rates 2 to 4 times higher for men and women with very low (versus high) income. Inequalities varied by age, peaking at midlife (30-50 years) for most diseases, while decreasing gradually with age for smoking. Conclusions We found wide and heterogeneous inequalities by income in 5 CVD risk factors and 4 CVD. Our findings in a region with a high-quality public health care system and universal coverage stress that strong equity-promoting policies are necessary to reduce disparities in CVD.

DNA Methylation Mediates the Association Between Individual and Neighborhood Social Disadvantage and Cardiovascular Risk Factors.

Low socioeconomic status (SES) and living in a disadvantaged neighborhood are associated with poor cardiovascular health. Multiple lines of evidence have linked DNA methylation to both cardiovascular risk factors and social disadvantage indicators. However, limited research has investigated the role of DNA methylation in mediating the associations of individual- and neighborhood-level disadvantage with multiple cardiovascular risk factors in large, multi-ethnic, population-based cohorts. We examined whether disadvantage at the individual level (childhood and adult SES) and neighborhood level (summary neighborhood SES as assessed by Census data and social environment as assessed by perceptions of aesthetic quality, safety, and social cohesion) were associated with 11 cardiovascular risk factors including measures of obesity, diabetes, lipids, and hypertension in 1,154 participants from the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis (MESA). For significant associations, we conducted epigenome-wide mediation analysis to identify methylation sites mediating the relationship between individual/neighborhood disadvantage and cardiovascular risk factors using the JT-Comp method that assesses sparse mediation effects under a composite null hypothesis. In models adjusting for age, sex, race/ethnicity, smoking, medication use, and genetic principal components of ancestry, epigenetic mediation was detected for the associations of adult SES with body mass index (BMI), insulin, and high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C), as well as for the association between neighborhood socioeconomic disadvantage and HDL-C at FDR q < 0.05. The 410 CpG mediators identified for the SES-BMI association were enriched for CpGs associated with gene expression (expression quantitative trait methylation loci, or eQTMs), and corresponding genes were enriched in antigen processing and presentation pathways. For cardiovascular risk factors other than BMI, most of the epigenetic mediators lost significance after controlling for BMI. However, 43 methylation sites showed evidence of mediating the neighborhood socioeconomic disadvantage and HDL-C association after BMI adjustment. The identified mediators were enriched for eQTMs, and corresponding genes were enriched in inflammatory and apoptotic pathways. Our findings support the hypothesis that DNA methylation acts as a mediator between individual- and neighborhood-level disadvantage and cardiovascular risk factors, and shed light on the potential underlying epigenetic pathways. Future studies are needed to fully elucidate the biological mechanisms that link social disadvantage to poor cardiovascular health.

Urban social determinants of non-communicable diseases risk factors in Argentina.

We examined associations of individual-, neighborhood- and city-level education -as proxies of SES at different levels-, with diabetes, hypertension, obesity, smoking and binge drinking (non-communicable disease risk factors -NCD/RF) among Argentinian adults. We estimated mixed models based on 21,415 individuals from the 2013 National Survey of Risk Factors, living in 2,698 neighborhoods and 33 cities. Gradients by individual-level education differed by gender and NCD/RF, and some were modified by city education. In addition, we identified contextual effects of neighborhood and city education on some NCD/RF. Urban efforts to tackle NCD/RF in Argentina should be context- and gender-sensitive, and mainly focused on socially disadvantaged groups.

Educational inequalities, urbanicity and levels of non-communicable diseases risk factors: evaluating trends in Argentina (2005-2013).

BACKGROUND: We investigated a) whether urbanicity is associated with individual-level non-communicable diseases (NCD) risk factors and whether urbanicity modifies trends over time in risk factors; and (b) whether educational inequalities in NCD risk factors change over time or are modified by province urbanicity. METHODS: We used data from three large national surveys on NCD risk factors (Encuesta Nacional de Factores de Riesgo; ENFR2005-2009-2013) conducted in urban areas of Argentina (n = 108,489). We used gender-stratified logistic random-intercept models (individuals nested within provinces) to determine adjusted associations of self-reported individual NCD risk factors (hypertension, diabetes, obesity, and current smoking) with education and urbanicity. RESULTS: In both men and women, the prevalence of obesity and diabetes increased over time but smoking decreased. Hypertension prevalence increased over time in men. Higher urbanicity was associated with higher odds of smoking and lower odds of hypertension in women but was not associated with NCD risk factors in men. Obesity increased more over time in more compared to less urbanized provinces (in men) while smoking decreased more over time in less urbanized provinces. All risk factors had a higher prevalence in persons with lower education (stronger in women than in men), except for diabetes in men and smoking in women. Educational inequalities in obesity (in men) and hypertension (in men and women) became stronger over time, while an initial inverse social gradient in smoking for women reverted and became similar to other risk factors over time. In general, the inverse associations of education with the risk factors became stronger with increasing levels of province urbanicity. CONCLUSION: Increasing prevalence of diabetes and obesity over time and growing inequities by education highlight the need for policies aimed at reducing NCD risk factors among lower socioeconomic populations in urban environments in Argentina.

Associations between everyday discrimination and sleep quality and duration among African-Americans over time in the Jackson Heart Study.

STUDY OBJECTIVES: African-Americans have a high burden of poor sleep, yet, psychosocial determinants (e.g. discrimination) are understudied. We investigated longitudinal associations between everyday discrimination and sleep quality and duration among African-Americans (N = 3404) in the Jackson Heart Study. METHODS: At Exam 1 (2000-2004) and Exam 3 (2008-2013), participants completed the Everyday Discrimination Scale, rated their sleep quality (1 = poor to 5 = excellent), and self-reported hours of sleep. A subset of participants (N = 762) underwent 7-day actigraphy to objectively measure sleep duration and sleep quality (Sleep Exam 2012-2016). Changes in discrimination were defined as low stable (reference), increasing, decreasing, and high stable. Within-person changes in sleep from Exam 1 to Exam 3 were regressed on change in discrimination from Exam 1 to Exam 3 while adjusting for age, sex, education, income, employment, physical activity, smoking, body mass index, social support, and stress. RESULTS: At Exam 1, the mean age was 54.1 (12.0) years; 64% were female, mean sleep quality was 3.0 (1.1) and 54% were short sleepers. The distribution of the discrimination change trajectories were 54.1% low stable, 13.5% increasing, 14.6% decreasing, and 17.7% were high stable. Participants who were in the increasing (vs. low stable) discrimination group had greater decrease in sleep quality. There was no association between change in discrimination and change in sleep duration. Among Sleep Exam participants, higher discrimination was cross-sectionally associated with shorter self-reported sleep duration, independent of stress. CONCLUSION: Discrimination is a unique stressor for African-Americans; thus, future research should identify interventions to reduce the burden of discrimination on sleep quality.

The role of perceived discrimination in predicting changes in health behaviours among African Americans in the Jackson Heart Study.

BACKGROUND: This study examined whether perceived discrimination was associated with health behaviours over time and whether associations of discrimination with behaviours varied by attribution of discrimination. METHODS: Multinomial logistic regression was used to estimate ORs and CIs for the associations of discrimination (everyday, lifetime, stress from lifetime discrimination) with health behaviours (cigarette smoking, alcohol use) over time among 3050 African Americans in the Jackson Heart Study from visit 1 (2000-2004) to visit 3 (2009-2013). Smoking status was classified as persistent current, persistent former, persistent never, current to former and former/never to current smokers. Alcohol use status was classified as persistent heavy, persistent moderate/none, heavy to moderate/none and moderate/none to heavy alcohol users. RESULTS: Higher everyday discrimination was associated with persistent current smoking (OR per SD higher discrimination 1.26, 95% CI 1.11,1.43) and with persistent former smoking (high vs low OR 1.32, 95% CI 1.02,1.70) relative to persistent never smoking. Similar findings were observed for lifetime discrimination and persistent current smoking (high vs low OR 1.85, 95% CI 1.15,2.95) and with persistent former smoking (high vs low OR 1.45, 95% CI 1.06,1.98). Participants reporting lifetime discrimination as very stressful compared with not stressful were more likely to be persistent former smokers (OR 1.44, 95% CI 1.04,1.99). Associations did not vary by discrimination attribution. CONCLUSION: Discrimination did not predict changes in smoking status or alcohol use. Discrimination was associated with persistent current smoking status, which may provide a plausible mechanism through which discrimination impacts the health of African Americans.

Life expectancy and mortality in 363 cities of Latin America.

The concept of a so-called urban advantage in health ignores the possibility of heterogeneity in health outcomes across cities. Using a harmonized dataset from the SALURBAL project, we describe variability and predictors of life expectancy and proportionate mortality in 363 cities across nine Latin American countries. Life expectancy differed substantially across cities within the same country. Cause-specific mortality also varied across cities, with some causes of death (unintentional and violent injuries and deaths) showing large variation within countries, whereas other causes of death (communicable, maternal, neonatal and nutritional, cancer, cardiovascular disease and other noncommunicable diseases) varied substantially between countries. In multivariable mixed models, higher levels of education, water access and sanitation and less overcrowding were associated with longer life expectancy, a relatively lower proportion of communicable, maternal, neonatal and nutritional deaths and a higher proportion of deaths from cancer, cardiovascular disease and other noncommunicable diseases. These results highlight considerable heterogeneity in life expectancy and causes of death across cities of Latin America, revealing modifiable factors that could be amenable to urban policies aimed toward improving urban health in Latin America and more generally in other urban environments.

Life Course Socioeconomic Status and Hypertension in African American Adults: The Jackson Heart Study.

BACKGROUND: Limited research has examined the association of life-course socioeconomic status (SES) with hypertension prevalence and incidence in a large cohort of African Americans. METHODS: Among 4,761 participants from the Jackson Heart Study (JHS), we examined the association of SES indicators with prevalent and incident hypertension. We used multivariable Poisson regression to estimate prevalence ratios (PR, 95% confidence interval-CI) of baseline (2000-2004) hypertension by adult (education, income, occupation, wealth) and childhood (mother's education) SES. Cox proportional hazards regression was used to estimate hazard ratios (HR, 95% CI) of incident hypertension by adult and childhood SES (2005-2013; 7.21 median years of follow-up). We also examined the association of childhood-to-adult SES mobility (parent-to-adult education) with prevalent and incident hypertension. Model 1 adjusted for age and sex. Model 2 added waist circumference, behaviors (smoking, alcohol, physical activity, diet), and diabetes prevalence. RESULTS: High (vs. low) adult SES measures were associated with a lower prevalence of hypertension, with the exception of having a college degree and upper-middle income (PR: 1.04, 95% CI: 1.01, 1.07; PR: 1.05, 95% CI: 1.01, 1.09, respectively). Higher childhood SES was associated with a lower prevalence and risk of hypertension (PR: 0.83, 95%: CI 0.75, 0.91; HR: 0.76, 95% CI: 0.65, 0.89, respectively). Upward mobility and consistent high SES (vs. consistent low SES) from childhood to adulthood was associated with a greater prevalence, but lower incidence of hypertension. CONCLUSION: Efforts to prevent hypertension among African Americans should consider childhood and current SES status.

Obstructive sleep apnea, nighttime arousals, and leukocyte telomere length: the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis.

STUDY OBJECTIVES: Sleep disturbances and sleep apnea are associated with increased vulnerability to age-related disease, altering molecular pathways affecting biological aging. Telomere length captures one component of biological aging. We evaluated whether objectively assessed sleep and sleep apnea relate to leukocyte telomere length (LTL) in the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis (MESA). METHODS: Men and women aged 44-84 years (n = 672) from the MESA Stress and MESA Sleep studies underwent polysomnography and 7 day actigraphy (at Exam 5) and assessment of LTL (at baseline [Exam 1] and about 10 years later [Exam 5]). RESULTS: General linear models adjusting for age, sex, race/ethnicity, BMI, physical activity, and smoking found that severe obstructive sleep apnea (OSA; apnea-hypopnea index > 30) was cross-sectionally associated with shorter LTL (p = 0.007). Modest associations of shorter LTL with less rapid eye movement sleep, more stage 1 sleep, wake after sleep onset >30 min, and long sleep duration were found, but these effects were diminished after adjusting for lifestyle and OSA. Exploratory analyses found that higher arousal index at Exam 5 was associated with greater LTL decline over the prior 10 years (p = 0.004). CONCLUSIONS: OSA was associated with shorter LTL. Individuals with high-arousal frequency had greater leukocyte telomere attrition over the prior decade. These findings suggest that sleep apnea and sleep fragmentation are associated with accelerated biological aging.

Sex and ethnicity modify the associations between individual and contextual socioeconomic indicators and ideal cardiovascular health: MESA study.

BACKGROUND: Low socioeconomic status (SES) is associated with cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk, but its association with different markers of SES may be heterogeneous by sex and race/ethnicity. METHODS: We have examined the relationships of four SES markers (education, family income, occupation and neighborhood SES) to ideal cardiovascular health (ICH), an index formed by seven variables. A total of 6792 cohort participants from six regions in the USA: Baltimore City and Baltimore County, MD; Chicago, IL; Forsyth County, NC; Los Angeles County, CA; New York, NY; and St. Paul, MN of the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis (MESA) (52.8% women) were recruited at baseline (2000-2) and included in the present analysis. RESULTS: ICH was classified as poor, intermediate or ideal. Level of education was significantly and inversely associated with ICH in non-Hispanic White men and women, in Chinese-American and Hispanic American men and African-American women. Family income was inversely and significantly associated with poor ICH in African-American men only. CONCLUSIONS: We conclude that the strength of the associations between some SES markers and ICH differ between sexes and race/ethnic groups.

Association of psychosocial factors with leukocyte telomere length among African Americans in the Jackson Heart Study.

Leukocyte telomere length (LTL) is a biomarker of cellular aging. African Americans report more stress than other groups; however, the association of psychosocial stressors with biological aging among African Americans remains unclear. The current study evaluated the association of psychosocial factors (negative affect and stressors) with LTL in a large sample of African American men and women (n = 2,516) from the Jackson Heart Study. Using multivariable linear regression, we examined the sex-specific associations of psychosocial factors (cynical distrust, anger in and out, depressive symptoms, negative affect summary scores, global stress, weekly stress, major life events, and stress summary scores) with LTL. Model 1 adjusted for demographics and education. Model 2 adjusted for model 1, smoking, alcohol intake, physical activity, diabetes, hypertension, and high-sensitivity C-reactive protein. Among women, high (vs. low) cynical distrust was associated with shorter mean LTL in model 1 (b = -0.12; p = 0.039). Additionally, high (vs. low) anger out and expressed negative affect summary scores were associated with shorter LTL among women after full adjustment (b = -0.13; p = 0.011; b = -0.12, p = 0.031, respectively). High levels of cynical distrust, anger out, and negative affect summary scores may be risk factors for shorter LTL, particularly among African-American women.

Exploring the emergence and evolution of population patterns of leisure-time physical activity through agent-based modelling.

INTRODUCTION: Most interventions aiming to promote leisure-time physical activity (LTPA) at population level showed small or null effects. Approaching the problem from a systems science perspective may shed light on the reasons for these results. We developed an agent-based model to explore how the interactions between psychological attributes and built and social environments may lead to the emergence and evolution of LTPA patterns among adults. METHODS: The modeling process consisted of four stages: (1) conceptual model development, (2) formulation of the agent-based model, (3) parametrization and calibration, and (4) consistency and sensitivity analyses. The model represents a stylized community containing two types of agents: persons and LTPA sites. Persons interact with each other (proximal network and perceived community) and with the built environment (LTPA sites) over time. Decision-making is based on the person's intention to practice LTPA, conditioned to the perceived environment. Each iteration is equivalent to one week and we assessed a period of 10 years. RESULTS: The model was able to reproduce population temporal trends of intention and LTPA reported in the literature. Sensitivity analyses indicated that population patterns and trends of intention and LTPA were highly influenced by the relationship between a person's behavior in the preceding week and his current intention, the person's access to built and social environment, and the density of LTPA sites. CONCLUSIONS: The proposed agent-based model is suitable to explore the emergence and evolution of LTPA patterns among adults, considering the dynamic interaction between individuals' psychological attributes and the built and social environments in which they live. The model is available at https://doi.org/10.17605/OSF.IO/J2KAS .

Longitudinal Analysis of Long-Term Air Pollution Levels and Blood Pressure: A Cautionary Tale from the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis.

BACKGROUND: Air pollution exposures are hypothesized to impact blood pressure, yet few longitudinal studies exist, their findings are inconsistent, and different adjustments have been made for potentially distinct confounding by calendar time and age. OBJECTIVE: We aimed to investigate the associations of long- and short-term [Formula: see text] and [Formula: see text] concentrations with systolic and diastolic blood pressures and incident hypertension while also accounting for potential confounding by age and time. METHODS: Between 2000 and 2012, Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis participants were measured for systolic and diastolic blood pressure at five exams. We estimated annual average and daily [Formula: see text] and [Formula: see text] concentrations for 6,569 participants using spatiotemporal models and measurements, respectively. Associations of exposures with blood pressure corrected for medication were studied using mixed-effects models. Incident hypertension was examined with Cox regression. We adjusted all models for sex, race/ethnicity, socioeconomic status, smoking, physical activity, diet, season, and site. We compared associations from models adjusting for time-varying age with those that adjusted for both time-varying age and calendar time. RESULTS: We observed decreases in pollution and blood pressures (adjusted for age and medication) over time. Strong, positive associations of long- and short-term exposures with blood pressure were found only in models with adjustment for time-varying age but not adjustment for both time-varying age and calendar time. For example, [Formula: see text] higher annual average [Formula: see text] concentrations were associated with 2.7 (95% CI: 1.5, 4.0) and [Formula: see text] (95% CI: [Formula: see text] 1.0) mmHg in systolic blood pressure with and without additional adjustment for time, respectively. Associations with incident hypertension were similarly weakened by additional adjustment for time. Sensitivity analyses indicated that air pollution did not likely cause the temporal trends in blood pressure. CONCLUSIONS: In contrast to experimental evidence, we found no associations between long- or short-term exposures to air pollution and blood pressure after accounting for both time-varying age and calendar time. This research suggests that careful consideration of both age and time is needed in longitudinal studies with trending exposures. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP2966.

Examining the Role of Neighborhood-Level Foreclosure in Smoking and Alcohol Use Among Older Adults in the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis.

The US Great Recession resulted in an alarming number of home foreclosures that weakened the social and physical environment of thousands of neighborhoods. Few studies have evaluated whether these neighborhood changes were related to changes in individual behaviors. We examined the relationship between changes in neighborhood-level home foreclosure within a quarter-mile (0.4-km) buffer of the residence and changes in cigarette smoking and alcohol use among 3,807 adults enrolled in the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis during 2005-2012, using econometric individual-level fixed-effects models. Increases in neighborhood-level foreclosure were associated with small decreases in the number of cigarettes smoked per day (mean difference = -0.08, 95% confidence interval: -0.11, -0.04) and small increases in the number of alcoholic beverages consumed per week (mean difference = 0.11, 95% confidence interval: 0.05, 0.17). Neighborhood-level foreclosure may not uniformly influence high-risk behaviors. The impact of home foreclosure on adult drinking should be further explored, given its potentially negative implications for health.

Cardiovascular Risk Factors, Depression, and Alcohol Consumption During Joblessness and During Recessions Among Young Adults in CARDIA.

Research has shown that recessions are associated with lower cardiovascular mortality, but unemployed individuals have a higher risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD) or death. We used data from 8 consecutive examinations (1985-2011) of the Coronary Artery Risk Development in Young Adults (CARDIA) cohort, modeled in fixed-effect panel regressions, to investigate simultaneously the associations of CVD risk factors with the employment status of individuals and the macroeconomic conditions prevalent in the state where the individual lives. We found that unemployed individuals had lower levels of blood pressure, high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, and physical activity, and they had significantly higher depression scores, but they were similar to their counterparts in smoking status, alcohol consumption, low-density lipoprotein cholesterol levels, body mass index, and waist circumference. A 1-percentage-point higher unemployment rate at the state level was associated with lower systolic (-0.41 mm Hg, 95% CI: -0.65, -0.17) and diastolic (-0.19, 95% CI: -0.39, 0.01) blood pressure, higher physical activity levels, higher depressive symptom scores, lower waist circumference, and less smoking. We conclude that levels of CVD risk factors tend to improve during recessions, but mental health tends to deteriorate. Unemployed individuals are significantly more depressed, and they likely have lower levels of physical activity and high-density lipoprotein cholesterol.

FPCA-based method to select optimal sampling schedules that capture between-subject variability in longitudinal studies.

A critical component of longitudinal study design involves determining the sampling schedule. Criteria for optimal design often focus on accurate estimation of the mean profile, although capturing the between-subject variance of the longitudinal process is also important since variance patterns may be associated with covariates of interest or predict future outcomes. Existing design approaches have limited applicability when one wishes to optimize sampling schedules to capture between-individual variability. We propose an approach to derive optimal sampling schedules based on functional principal component analysis (FPCA), which separately characterizes the mean and the variability of longitudinal profiles and leads to a parsimonious representation of the temporal pattern of the variability. Simulation studies show that the new design approach performs equally well compared to an existing approach based on parametric mixed model (PMM) when a PMM is adequate for the data, and outperforms the PMM-based approach otherwise. We use the methods to design studies aiming to characterize daily salivary cortisol profiles and identify the optimal days within the menstrual cycle when urinary progesterone should be measured.