A narrative review of lifestyle management guidelines for metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease.

BACKGROUND AIMS: Metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease (MASLD) management guidelines have been published worldwide; we aimed to summarize, categorize and compare their lifestyle intervention recommendations. APPROACH RESULTS: We searched MASLD/nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) management guidelines published between 1 January 2013 and 31 June 2024 via databases including PubMed/MEDLINE, Cochrane, and CINAHL. In total, 35 qualifying guidelines were included in the final analysis. Guideline recommendations were categorized into five domains (i.e., weight reduction goals, physical activity, nutrition, alcohol, and tobacco smoking) and were ranked based on how frequently they appeared. A recommendation was defined as widely adopted if recommended in ≥24 (≥66.6%) of the guidelines. These included increase physical activity; reduce body weight by 7-10% to improve steatohepatitis and/or fibrosis; restrict caloric intake; undertake 150-300 or 75-150 minutes/week of moderate or vigorous-intensity physical activity, respectively; and decrease consumption of commercially produced fructose. The least mentioned topics, in ≤9 of the guidelines, evaluated environmental determinants of health, mental health, referring patients for psychological or cognitive behavioral therapy, using digital health interventions (DHIs), and assessing patients' social determinants of health. CONCLUSIONS: Most guidelines recommend weight reduction through physical activity and improving nutrition, as these have proven positive effects on health outcomes when sustained. However, gaps regarding mental health and the social and environmental determinants of MASLD were found. To optimize behavioral modifications and treatment, we recommend carrying out studies that will provide further evidence on social support, environmental factors, and mental health, and further exploring DHIs.

Increased risk of chronic kidney disease and mortality in a cohort of people diagnosed with metabolic dysfunction associated steatotic liver disease with hepatic fibrosis.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Metabolic dysfunction associated steatotic liver disease (MASLD) increases the risk of incident chronic kidney disease (CKD). However, the relative risk of CKD associated with increasing hepatic fibrosis, and consequent mortality risk, remains underexplored in real-world cohorts. In this study, we sought to establish whether hepatic fibrosis is associated with increased CKD risk and explore differences in mortality risk in a cohort of people living with MASLD, contingent on liver fibrosis and CKD status. METHODS: This was an observational study of people who underwent routine liver function testing in Tayside, Scotland. MASLD was defined as: elevated ALT (>30 U/L) or GGT (>73 U/L); presence of diabetes, and/or hypertension, and/or obesity; weekly alcohol consumption <14 units (112g (+/-8g) alcohol); and negative screen for other aetiologies. Data was collected from digital health records. We used log-binomial models to quantify the risk of CKD among those with and without fibrosis, and Cox regression models to estimate differences in mortality risk dependent on fibrosis and CKD. RESULTS: In our cohort (n = 2,046), 1,448 (70.8%) people had MASLD without fibrosis and 598 (29.2%) with fibrosis; 161 (11.1%) and 117 (19.6%) respectively also had CKD. After excluding individuals with structural, autoimmune, or malignant CKD (n = 22), liver fibrosis (n = 593; 18.9% with CKD) was associated with increased CKD risk (aRR = 1.31, 1.04-1.64, p = 0.021). Increased mortality risk was observed for those with liver fibrosis (aHR = 2.30, 1.49-3.56, p = <0.001) and was higher again among people with both fibrosis and CKD (aHR = 5.07, 3.07-8.39, p = <0.014). CONCLUSIONS: Liver fibrosis was an independent risk factor for CKD in this cohort of people living with MASLD. Furthermore, those with MASLD with liver fibrosis had higher risk for mortality and this risk was further elevated among those with co-morbid CKD. Given the increased risk of CKD, and consequent mortality risk, among people living with MASLD fibrosis, renal function screening should be considered within liver health surveillance programmes and guidelines.

Long-term risk factors for developing Barrett's oesophagus in patients with gastro-oesophageal reflux disease: a longitudinal cohort study.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Several characteristics are known to affect the risk of Barrett's oesophagus (BO) in the general population, with symptomatic gastro-oesophageal reflux disease (GORD) being a critical risk factor. In this study, we examined factors that influence BO development in people living with GORD. DESIGN: People living with GORD were recruited from an endoscopy unit with lifestyle, medical and prescribing history collected. Logistic regression analysis was undertaken to assess the effects of multiple parameters on the likelihood of developing BO. RESULTS: 1197 participants were recruited. Most were Caucasian (n=1188, 99%), had no formal educational qualifications (n=714; 59.6%) and lived with overweight (mean body mass index >25 kg/m2). Many lived in areas of least socioeconomic resource (n=568; 47.4%). 139 (11.6%) had BO at baseline. In adjusted baseline analysis (n=1197), male sex (adjusted OR, aOR 2.04 (95% CI 1.92 to 4.12), p≤0.001), increasing age (aOR 1.03 (95% CI 1.01 to 1.04), p≤0.0001) and proton pump inhibitor use (aOR 3.03 (95% CI 1.80 to 5.13), p≤0.0001) were associated with higher odds of BO. At follow-up (n=363), 22 (6.1%) participants developed BO; male sex (aOR 3.18 (95% CI 1.28 to 7.86), p=0.012), pack-years cigarettes smoked (aOR 1.04 (95% CI 1.00 to 1.08), p=0.046) and increased alcohol intake (aOR 1.02 (95% CI 1.00 to 1.04), p=0.013), were associated with increased odds of BO. CONCLUSION: Male sex, pack-years cigarettes smoked, and increasing alcohol intake, were independently associated with increased odds of developing BO over 20-year follow-up. These results align with research linking male sex and smoking with BO and extend this by implicating the potential role of alcohol in developing BO, which may require communication through public health messaging.

Implementation of a liver health check in people with type 2 diabetes.

As morbidity and mortality related to potentially preventable liver diseases are on the rise globally, early detection of liver fibrosis offers a window of opportunity to prevent disease progression. Early detection of non-alcoholic fatty liver disease allows for initiation and reinforcement of guidance on bodyweight management, risk stratification for advanced liver fibrosis, and treatment optimisation of diabetes and other metabolic complications. Identification of alcohol-related liver disease provides the opportunity to support patients with detoxification and abstinence programmes. In all patient groups, identification of cirrhosis ensures that patients are enrolled in surveillance programmes for hepatocellular carcinoma and portal hypertension. When considering early detection strategies, success can be achieved from applying ad-hoc screening for liver fibrosis in established frameworks of care. Patients with type 2 diabetes are an important group to consider case findings of advanced liver fibrosis and cirrhosis, as up to 19% have advanced fibrosis (which is ten times higher than the general population) and almost 70% have non-alcoholic fatty liver disease. Additionally, patients with type 2 diabetes with alcohol use disorders have the highest proportion of liver-related morbidity of people with type 2 diabetes generally. Patients with type 2 diabetes receive an annual diabetes review as part of their routine clinical care, in which the health of many organs are considered. Yet, liver health is seldom included in this review. This Viewpoint argues that augmenting the existing risk stratification strategy with an additional liver health check provides the opportunity to detect advanced liver fibrosis, thereby opening a window for early interventions to prevent end-stage liver disease and its complications, including hepatocellular carcinoma.

IκBζ is an essential mediator of immunity to oropharyngeal candidiasis.

Fungal infections are a global threat; yet, there are no licensed vaccines to any fungal pathogens. Th17 cells mediate immunity to Candida albicans, particularly oropharyngeal candidiasis (OPC), but essential downstream mechanisms remain unclear. In the murine model of OPC, IκBζ (Nfkbiz, a non-canonical NF-κB transcription factor) was upregulated in an interleukin (IL)-17-dependent manner and was essential to prevent candidiasis. Deletion of Nfkbiz rendered mice highly susceptible to OPC. IκBζ was dispensable in hematopoietic cells and acted partially in the suprabasal oral epithelium to control OPC. One prominent IκBζ-dependent gene target was ß-defensin 3 (BD3) (Defb3), an essential antimicrobial peptide. Human oral epithelial cells required IκBζ for IL-17-mediated induction of BD2 (DEFB4A, human ortholog of mouse Defb3) through binding to the DEFB4A promoter. Unexpectedly, IκBζ regulated the transcription factor Egr3, which was essential for C. albicans induction of BD2/DEFB4A. Accordingly, IκBζ and Egr3 comprise an antifungal signaling hub mediating mucosal defense against oral candidiasis.

Mortality rates among patients successfully treated for hepatitis C in the era of interferon-free antivirals: population based cohort study.

OBJECTIVES: To quantify mortality rates for patients successfully treated for hepatitis C in the era of interferon-free, direct acting antivirals and compare these rates with those of the general population. DESIGN: Population based cohort study. SETTING: British Columbia, Scotland, and England (England cohort consists of patients with cirrhosis only). PARTICIPANTS: 21 790 people who were successfully treated for hepatitis C in the era of interferon-free antivirals (2014-19). Participants were divided into three liver disease severity groups: people without cirrhosis (pre-cirrhosis), those with compensated cirrhosis, and those with end stage liver disease. Follow-up started 12 weeks after antiviral treatment completion and ended on date of death or 31 December 2019. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Crude and age-sex standardised mortality rates, and standardised mortality ratio comparing the number of deaths with that of the general population, adjusting for age, sex, and year. Poisson regression was used to identify factors associated with all cause mortality rates. RESULTS: 1572 (7%) participants died during follow-up. The leading causes of death were drug related mortality (n=383, 24%), liver failure (n=286, 18%), and liver cancer (n=250, 16%). Crude all cause mortality rates (deaths per 1000 person years) were 31.4 (95% confidence interval 29.3 to 33.7), 22.7 (20.7 to 25.0), and 39.6 (35.4 to 44.3) for cohorts from British Columbia, Scotland, and England, respectively. All cause mortality was considerably higher than the rate for the general population across all disease severity groups and settings; for example, all cause mortality was three times higher among people without cirrhosis in British Columbia (standardised mortality ratio 2.96, 95% confidence interval 2.71 to 3.23; P<0.001) and more than 10 times higher for patients with end stage liver disease in British Columbia (13.61, 11.94 to 15.49; P<0.001). In regression analyses, older age, recent substance misuse, alcohol misuse, and comorbidities were associated with higher mortality rates. CONCLUSION: Mortality rates among people successfully treated for hepatitis C in the era of interferon-free, direct acting antivirals are high compared with the general population. Drug and liver related causes of death were the main drivers of excess mortality. These findings highlight the need for continued support and follow-up after successful treatment for hepatitis C to maximise the impact of direct acting antivirals.

Systematic review: the role of frailty in advanced chronic liver disease.

BACKGROUND: Frailty is a known predictor of outcome and mortality in patients undergoing liver transplantation. However, most patients remain unsuitable transplant candidates. It is not yet known if the assessment of frailty in non-transplant candidates can aid prognostication. AIM: To collate and interrogate the various frailty tools presently used to predict mortality in the non-transplant cirrhosis setting. METHODS: A comprehensive review of MEDLINE and EMBASE databases for articles published from inception to March 2022 was undertaken, excluding those where patients underwent transplantation or had hepatocellular carcinoma. RESULTS: We identified 12 observational cohort studies, featuring 9 frailty indices. These were from various global healthcare settings and of fair or good quality. Most were objective tools utilising clinician-based assessments. All frailty scores predicted prognosis, with variability in the method of application, and utilisation in long- or short-term mortality. Three studies directly compared different indices in the same population. There was some evidence that simple tools could perform as well, if not better, than more complex, time-consuming scores. CONCLUSIONS: Various frailty tools can reproducibly evaluate mortality in patients with cirrhosis who are ineligible for transplant. However, further prospective head-to-head comparative studies are needed. In addition to determining model utility, studies should focus on important relative considerations which may limit widespread implementation including, ease of use and limited resources, given the global disparity of liver care provision. These tools may positively identify specific patient cohorts at risk of impending deterioration, thereby stratifying those patients likely to benefit from early integration with palliative care.

How to Effectively Monitor Aging Patients with Chronic Hepatitis B: A Review.

Hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection is a major global public health challenge associated with significant morbidity and mortality. Due to worldwide population aging, HBV infection in the elderly will become increasingly prevalent. Effective universal vaccination programs exist but these are largely targeted towards the younger population. Therefore, the elderly population remains at risk of higher disease burden. New diagnoses of HBV infection in the elderly are usually asymptomatic chronic infections which increases their risk of developing cirrhosis, hepatocellular carcinoma, and liver disease-related mortality, especially if left untreated. Physiological changes and the increasing prevalence of multimorbidity associated with aging also potentially worsen outcomes in elderly patients with chronic HBV infection. Therefore, this cohort of patients should be monitored closely and effectively. Current international clinical practice guidelines unfortunately do not provide hard treatment endpoints specific to elderly patients with chronic HBV infection. Management of these patients is complex and requires an individualized approach. Multiple factors such as physiological changes, comorbidities, compliance, treatment tolerability and efficacy, burden of treatment, and realistic treatment goals need to be considered. Shared decision-making between patient and clinician is essential to ensure that the final decision for or against treatment aligns with the patient's values and preferences. This review article aims to summarize the monitoring and management of chronic HBV infection in the aging population.

Explainable Preoperative Automated Machine Learning Prediction Model for Cardiac Surgery-Associated Acute Kidney Injury.

BACKGROUND: We aimed to develop and validate an automated machine learning (autoML) prediction model for cardiac surgery-associated acute kidney injury (CSA-AKI). METHODS: Using 69 preoperative variables, we developed several models to predict post-operative AKI in adult patients undergoing cardiac surgery. Models included autoML and non-autoML types, including decision tree (DT), random forest (RF), extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost), and artificial neural network (ANN), as well as a logistic regression prediction model. We then compared model performance using area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) and assessed model calibration using Brier score on the independent testing dataset. RESULTS: The incidence of CSA-AKI was 36%. Stacked ensemble autoML had the highest predictive performance among autoML models, and was chosen for comparison with other non-autoML and multivariable logistic regression models. The autoML had the highest AUROC (0.79), followed by RF (0.78), XGBoost (0.77), multivariable logistic regression (0.77), ANN (0.75), and DT (0.64). The autoML had comparable AUROC with RF and outperformed the other models. The autoML was well-calibrated. The Brier score for autoML, RF, DT, XGBoost, ANN, and multivariable logistic regression was 0.18, 0.18, 0.21, 0.19, 0.19, and 0.18, respectively. We applied SHAP and LIME algorithms to our autoML prediction model to extract an explanation of the variables that drive patient-specific predictions of CSA-AKI. CONCLUSION: We were able to present a preoperative autoML prediction model for CSA-AKI that provided high predictive performance that was comparable to RF and superior to other ML and multivariable logistic regression models. The novel approaches of the proposed explainable preoperative autoML prediction model for CSA-AKI may guide clinicians in advancing individualized medicine plans for patients under cardiac surgery.

Comparing Predicted Probability of Hepatocellular Carcinoma in Patients With Cirrhosis With the General Population: An Opportunity to Improve Risk Communication?

INTRODUCTION: Risk scores estimating a patient's probability of a hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) diagnosis are abundant but are difficult to interpret in isolation. We compared the predicted HCC probability for individuals with cirrhosis and cured hepatitis C with the general population (GP). METHODS: All patients with cirrhosis achieving sustained viral response (SVR) in Scotland by April 2018 were included (N = 1,803). The predicted 3-year probability of HCC at time of SVR achievement was determined using the aMAP prognostic model. GP data on the total number of incident HCCs in Scotland, stratified by demographics, were obtained from Public Health Scotland. Predicted HCC risk of cirrhosis SVR patients was compared with GP incidence using 2 metrics: (i) incidence ratio: i.e., 3-year predicted probability for a given patient divided by the 3-year probability in GP for the equivalent demographic group and (ii) absolute risk difference: the 3-year predicted probability minus the 3-year probability in the GP. RESULTS: The mean predicted 3-year HCC probability among cirrhosis SVR patients was 3.64% (range: 0.012%-36.12%). Conversely, the 3-year HCC probability in the GP was much lower, ranging from <0.0001% to 0.25% depending on demographics. The mean incidence ratio was 410, ranging from 5 to >10,000. The mean absolute risk difference was 3.61%, ranging from 0.012% to 35.9%. An online HCC-GP comparison calculator for use by patients/clinicians is available at https://thrive-svr.shinyapps.io/RShiny/ . DISCUSSION: Comparing a patient's predicted HCC probability with the GP is feasible and may help clinicians communicate risk information and encourage screening uptake.

Radiation Exposure Perturbs IL-17RA-Mediated Immunity Leading to Changes in Neutrophil Responses That Increase Susceptibility to Oropharyngeal Candidiasis.

Fungal infections caused by Candida albicans are a serious problem for immunocompromised individuals, including those undergoing radiotherapy for head and neck cancers. Targeted irradiation causes inflammatory dysregulation and damage to the oral mucosa that can be exacerbated by candidiasis. Post-irradiation the cytokine interleukin-17 (IL-17) protects the oral mucosae by promoting oral epithelial regeneration and balancing the oral immune cell populations, which leads to the eventual healing of the tissue. IL-17 signaling is also critical for the antifungal response during oropharyngeal candidiasis (OPC). Yet, the benefit of IL-17 during other forms of candidiasis, such as vulvovaginal candidiasis, is not straightforward. Therefore, it was important to determine the role of IL-17 during OPC associated with radiation-induced inflammatory damage. To answer this question, we exposed Il17ra-/- and wild-type mice to head-neck irradiation (HNI) and OPC to determine if the IL-17 signaling pathway was still protective against C. albicans. HNI increased susceptibility to OPC, and in Il17ra-/- mice, the mucosal damage and fungal burden were elevated compared to control mice. Intriguingly, neutrophil influx was increased in Il17ra-/- mice, yet these cells had reduced capacity to phagocytose C. albicans and failed to clear OPC compared to immunocompetent mice. These findings suggest that radiotherapy not only causes physical damage to the oral cavity but also skews immune mediators, leading to increased susceptibility to oropharyngeal candidiasis.

Thrombocytosis and abnormal liver enzymes: A trigger for investigation of underlying malignancy.

BACKGROUND: Thrombocytosis is often an incidental finding in primary care with a range of causes. Despite evidence of a strong association between thrombocytosis and malignancy, guidelines for investigating thrombocytosis in the absence of red flag symptoms remain unclear. A novel automated system of laboratory analysis, intelligent Liver Function Testing (iLFT), launched in Tayside in 2018 and has identified a patient group with thrombocytosis and abnormal liver test (LFT) results. This study analysed the outcome of these patients and investigated the use of thrombocytosis combined with LFTs in predicting risk of cancer. METHODS AND FINDINGS: Between August 2018 and August 2020, 6792 patients underwent iLFT, with 246 found to have both thrombocytosis and at least one abnormal LFT. A random case-matched control group of 492 iLFT patients with normal platelet count and at least one abnormal LFT was created. 7.7% (95% CI 4.7-11.8%) of patients with thrombocytosis had cancer compared to 2.0% (1.0-3.7%) of controls. Patients <40 years or with pre-existing causes of thrombocytosis were then excluded. Subsequent analysis revealed a 10.8% (6.6-16.3%) incidence of cancer in thrombocytosis patients (n = 176) compared to 2.5% (1.2-4.6%, p = 0.00014) in patients with normal platelet count (PLT) (n = 398). When thrombocytosis is combined with elevated alkaline phosphatase (ALP), there is a positive predictive value (PPV) of 20% for cancer. These rules were subsequently applied to a validation cohort of 71,652 patients, of whom 458 had thrombocytosis and elevated ALP. There was a 30.6% cancer incidence, confirming the strong predictive value of the combined test of PLT and ALP. CONCLUSIONS: These findings suggest a substantial increased risk of cancer in patients with thrombocytosis and raised ALP. This could be developed as an adjunct to current investigation algorithms, highlighting high-risk patients and prompting further investigation (such as computed tomography scans) where indicated.

Metabolic dysfunction-related liver disease as a risk factor for cancer.

OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study was to investigate the association between obesity, diabetes and metabolic related liver dysfunction and the incidence of cancer. DESIGN: This study was conducted with health record data available from the National Health Service in Tayside and Fife. Genetics of Diabetes Audit and Research Tayside, Scotland (GoDARTS), Scottish Health Research Register (SHARE) and Tayside and Fife diabetics, three Scottish cohorts of 13 695, 62 438 and 16 312 patients, respectively, were analysed in this study. Participants in GoDARTS were a volunteer sample, with half having type 2 diabetes mellitus(T2DM). SHARE was a volunteer sample. Tayside and Fife diabetics was a population-level cohort. Metabolic dysfunction-related liver disease (MDLD) was defined using alanine transaminase measurements, and individuals with alternative causes of liver disease (alcohol abuse, viruses, etc) were excluded from the analysis. RESULTS: MDLD associated with increased cancer incidence with a HR of 1.31 in a Cox proportional hazards model adjusted for sex, type 2 diabetes, body mass index(BMI), and smoking status (95% CI 1.27 to 1.35, p<0.0001). This was replicated in two further cohorts, and similar associations with cancer incidence were found for Fatty Liver Index (FLI), Fibrosis-4 Index (FIB-4) and non-alcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH). Homozygous carriers of the common non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) risk-variant PNPLA3 rs738409 had increased risk of cancer. (HR=1.27 (1.02 to 1.58), p=3.1×10 -2). BMI was not independently associated with cancer incidence when MDLD was included as a covariate. CONCLUSION: MDLD, FLI, FIB-4 and NASH associated with increased risk of cancer incidence and death. NAFLD may be a major component of the relationship between obesity and cancer incidence.

Cohort study: Apparent redundancy of fibrosis assessment in young persons with HCV; development of realistic approaches to break the paradigm.

INTRODUCTION AND OBJECTIVES: Hepatitis C Virus (HCV) is a blood-borne, hepatotropic RNA virus causing both acute and chronic infection. Chronic HCV infection predisposes individuals to liver fibrosis, cirrhosis and hepatocellular carcinoma. Staging of fibrosis prior to treatment to determine either treatment choice or required follow up, is standard practice. However, this often acts as a barrier to treatment initiation. We sought to validate the hypothesis that those individuals; mono-infected with HCV, ≤35 years of age; with no additional hepatic insult were unlikely to have significant fibrosis. METHODS: We performed a retrospective analysis of a Hepatitis C Virus database; with collation of relevant basic demographics including age, sex and baseline Transient Elastography measurements pre-treatment. Additionally, we compared the reliability of biochemical fibrosis scores with corresponding transient elastography scores. RESULTS: Our results support the hypothesis that those individuals with chronic HCV ≤35 years old, with no additional risk for fibrogenesis did not have significant liver fibrosis within our cohort. CONCLUSION: Patients ≤35 years old likely do not necessitate fibrosis assessment prior to Direct Acting Antiviral (DAA) treatment in the absence of other significant risk factors for fibrosis. Given the emerging evidence that DAA treatment results in a significant decrease in all-cause mortality and hepatocellular carcinoma development, treatment of those with chronic HCV represents a global priority.

Advances and Emerging Therapies in the Treatment of Non-alcoholic Steatohepatitis.

Non-alcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH) now represents one of the most prevalent forms of cirrhosis and hepatocellular carcinoma. A number of treatment agents have undergone assessment in humans following promising results in animal models. Currently, about 50 therapeutic agents are in various stages of development. Recently, however, there have been a number of exciting and positive developments in this landscape, although there are inherent challenges ahead. In this article, we review the aetiological and pathological basis of NASH progression and describe putative targets for current therapies. We also discuss some of the likely future directions and difficulties around this complex and challenging disease paradigm.

Declining incidence of hepatitis C related hepatocellular carcinoma in the era of interferon-free therapies: A population-based cohort study.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: The impact of interferon (IFN)-free therapies on the epidemiology of hepatitis C virus (HCV) related hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is not well understood at a population level. Our goal was to bridge this evidence gap. METHODS: This study included all patients in Scotland with chronic HCV and a diagnosis of cirrhosis during 1999-2019. Incident cases of HCC, episodes of curative HCC therapy, and HCC-related deaths were identified through linkage to nationwide registries. Three time periods were examined: 1999-2010 (pegylated interferon-ribavirin [PIR]); 2011-2013 (First-generation DAA); and 2014-2019 (IFN-free era). We used regression modelling to determine time trends for (i) number diagnosed and living with HCV cirrhosis, (ii) HCC cumulative incidence, (iii) HCC curative treatment uptake and (iv) post-HCC mortality. RESULTS: 3347 cirrhosis patients were identified of which 381 (11.4%) developed HCC. After HCC diagnosis, 140 (36.7%) received curative HCC treatment and there were 202 deaths from HCC. The average annual number of patients diagnosed and living with HCV cirrhosis was approximately seven times higher in the IFN-free versus the PIR era, whereas the number of incident HCCs was four times higher. However, the cumulative incidence of HCC was significantly lower in the IFN-free versus PIR era (sdHR: 0.65; 95%CI:0.47-0.88; P = .006). Among HCC patients, diagnosis in the IFN-free era was not associated with improved uptake of curative treatment (aOR:1.18; 95%CI:0.69-2.01; P = .54), or reduced post-HCC mortality (sdHR: 0.74; 95%CI:0.53-1.05; P = .09). CONCLUSIONS: The cumulative incidence of HCC is declining in HCV cirrhosis patients, but uptake of curative HCC therapy and post-HCC survival remains suboptimal.

Gamma-Glutamyl Transferase (γ-GT) - an old dog with new tricks?

Gamma-Glutamyl Transferase (γGT) is a key transferase involved in the transpeptidation of functional gamma-glutamyl groups to various receptor moieties. It performs important roles in antioxidant defence mechanisms, particularly glutathione recycling, xenobiotic metabolism, but analogously may also have a pro-oxidant role. γGT is very sensitive for the diagnosis of liver injury, although it has poor specificity for particular aetiologies. It has been used to reflect temporal changes as a form of monitoring depending on aetiology. Given its cellular role in antioxidant function, it has been investigated as a surrogate biomarker of oxidative stress. It has also been found to be a predictor of mortality across a spectra of non-hepatic disease pathologies, from metabolic and cardiovascular risk to chronic kidney disease and neoplasia. Similarly, it also remains of interest to the insurance industry given an apparent ability to predict mortality, in addition to a historical interest from law enforcement as a marker of chronic alcohol ingestion. Here, we review some of the unique characteristics of this important enzyme, previously considered as a mere specific marker of liver dysfunction, but now with clear extra-hepatic implications and novel applications and utility.

Competing Risk Bias in Prognostic Models Predicting Hepatocellular Carcinoma Occurrence: Impact on Clinical Decision-making.

Background and Aims: Existing models predicting hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) occurrence do not account for competing risk events and, thus, may overestimate the probability of HCC. Our goal was to quantify this bias for patients with cirrhosis and cured hepatitis C. Methods: We analyzed a nationwide cohort of patients with cirrhosis and cured hepatitis C infection from Scotland. Two HCC prognostic models were developed: (1) a Cox regression model ignoring competing risk events and (2) a Fine-Gray regression model accounting for non-HCC mortality as a competing risk. Both models included the same set of prognostic factors used by previously developed HCC prognostic models. Two predictions were calculated for each patient: first, the 3-year probability of HCC predicted by model 1 and second, the 3-year probability of HCC predicted by model 2. Results: The study population comprised 1629 patients with cirrhosis and cured HCV, followed for 3.8 years on average. A total of 82 incident HCC events and 159 competing risk events (ie, non-HCC deaths) were observed. The mean predicted 3-year probability of HCC was 3.37% for model 1 (Cox) and 3.24% for model 2 (Fine-Gray). For most patients (76%), the difference in the 3-year probability of HCC predicted by model 1 and model 2 was minimal (ie, within 0 to ±0.3%). A total of 2.6% of patients had a large discrepancy exceeding 2%; however, these were all patients with a 3-year probability exceeding >5% in both models. Conclusion: Prognostic models that ignore competing risks do overestimate the future probability of developing HCC. However, the degree of overestimation-and the way it is patterned-means that the impact on HCC screening decisions is likely to be modest.

Study protocol: a multicentre, open-label, parallel-group, phase 2, randomised controlled trial of autologous macrophage therapy for liver cirrhosis (MATCH).

INTRODUCTION: Liver cirrhosis is a growing global healthcare challenge. Cirrhosis is characterised by severe liver fibrosis, organ dysfunction and complications related to portal hypertension. There are no licensed antifibrotic or proregenerative medicines and liver transplantation is a scarce resource. Hepatic macrophages can promote both liver fibrogenesis and fibrosis regression. The safety and feasibility of peripheral infusion of ex vivo matured autologous monocyte-derived macrophages in patients with compensated cirrhosis has been demonstrated. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: The efficacy of autologous macrophage therapy, compared with standard medical care, will be investigated in a cohort of adult patients with compensated cirrhosis in a multicentre, open-label, parallel-group, phase 2, randomised controlled trial. The primary outcome is the change in Model for End-Stage Liver Disease score at 90 days. The trial will provide the first high-quality examination of the efficacy of autologous macrophage therapy in improving liver function, non-invasive fibrosis markers and other clinical outcomes in patients with compensated cirrhosis. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: The trial will be conducted according to the ethical principles of the Declaration of Helsinki 2013 and has been approved by Scotland A Research Ethics Committee (reference 15/SS/0121), National Health Service Lothian Research and Development department and the Medicine and Health Care Regulatory Agency-UK. Final results will be presented in peer-reviewed journals and at relevant conferences. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBERS: ISRCTN10368050 and EudraCT; reference 2015-000963-15.

Machine Learning Consensus Clustering Approach for Patients with Lactic Acidosis in Intensive Care Units.

BACKGROUND: Lactic acidosis is a heterogeneous condition with multiple underlying causes and associated outcomes. The use of multi-dimensional patient data to subtype lactic acidosis can personalize patient care. Machine learning consensus clustering may identify lactic acidosis subgroups with unique clinical profiles and outcomes. METHODS: We used the Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care III database to abstract electronic medical record data from patients admitted to intensive care units (ICU) in a tertiary care hospital in the United States. We included patients who developed lactic acidosis (defined as serum lactate ≥ 4 mmol/L) within 48 h of ICU admission. We performed consensus clustering analysis based on patient characteristics, comorbidities, vital signs, organ supports, and laboratory data to identify clinically distinct lactic acidosis subgroups. We calculated standardized mean differences to show key subgroup features. We compared outcomes among subgroups. RESULTS: We identified 1919 patients with lactic acidosis. The algorithm revealed three best unique lactic acidosis subgroups based on patient variables. Cluster 1 (n = 554) was characterized by old age, elective admission to cardiac surgery ICU, vasopressor use, mechanical ventilation use, and higher pH and serum bicarbonate. Cluster 2 (n = 815) was characterized by young age, admission to trauma/surgical ICU with higher blood pressure, lower comorbidity burden, lower severity index, and less vasopressor use. Cluster 3 (n = 550) was characterized by admission to medical ICU, history of liver disease and coagulopathy, acute kidney injury, lower blood pressure, higher comorbidity burden, higher severity index, higher serum lactate, and lower pH and serum bicarbonate. Cluster 3 had the worst outcomes, while cluster 1 had the most favorable outcomes in terms of persistent lactic acidosis and mortality. CONCLUSIONS: Consensus clustering analysis synthesized the pattern of clinical and laboratory data to reveal clinically distinct lactic acidosis subgroups with different outcomes.