A narrative review of lifestyle management guidelines for metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease.

BACKGROUND AIMS: Metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease (MASLD) management guidelines have been published worldwide; we aimed to summarize, categorize and compare their lifestyle intervention recommendations. APPROACH RESULTS: We searched MASLD/nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) management guidelines published between 1 January 2013 and 31 June 2024 via databases including PubMed/MEDLINE, Cochrane, and CINAHL. In total, 35 qualifying guidelines were included in the final analysis. Guideline recommendations were categorized into five domains (i.e., weight reduction goals, physical activity, nutrition, alcohol, and tobacco smoking) and were ranked based on how frequently they appeared. A recommendation was defined as widely adopted if recommended in ≥24 (≥66.6%) of the guidelines. These included increase physical activity; reduce body weight by 7-10% to improve steatohepatitis and/or fibrosis; restrict caloric intake; undertake 150-300 or 75-150 minutes/week of moderate or vigorous-intensity physical activity, respectively; and decrease consumption of commercially produced fructose. The least mentioned topics, in ≤9 of the guidelines, evaluated environmental determinants of health, mental health, referring patients for psychological or cognitive behavioral therapy, using digital health interventions (DHIs), and assessing patients' social determinants of health. CONCLUSIONS: Most guidelines recommend weight reduction through physical activity and improving nutrition, as these have proven positive effects on health outcomes when sustained. However, gaps regarding mental health and the social and environmental determinants of MASLD were found. To optimize behavioral modifications and treatment, we recommend carrying out studies that will provide further evidence on social support, environmental factors, and mental health, and further exploring DHIs.

Increased risk of chronic kidney disease and mortality in a cohort of people diagnosed with metabolic dysfunction associated steatotic liver disease with hepatic fibrosis.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Metabolic dysfunction associated steatotic liver disease (MASLD) increases the risk of incident chronic kidney disease (CKD). However, the relative risk of CKD associated with increasing hepatic fibrosis, and consequent mortality risk, remains underexplored in real-world cohorts. In this study, we sought to establish whether hepatic fibrosis is associated with increased CKD risk and explore differences in mortality risk in a cohort of people living with MASLD, contingent on liver fibrosis and CKD status. METHODS: This was an observational study of people who underwent routine liver function testing in Tayside, Scotland. MASLD was defined as: elevated ALT (>30 U/L) or GGT (>73 U/L); presence of diabetes, and/or hypertension, and/or obesity; weekly alcohol consumption <14 units (112g (+/-8g) alcohol); and negative screen for other aetiologies. Data was collected from digital health records. We used log-binomial models to quantify the risk of CKD among those with and without fibrosis, and Cox regression models to estimate differences in mortality risk dependent on fibrosis and CKD. RESULTS: In our cohort (n = 2,046), 1,448 (70.8%) people had MASLD without fibrosis and 598 (29.2%) with fibrosis; 161 (11.1%) and 117 (19.6%) respectively also had CKD. After excluding individuals with structural, autoimmune, or malignant CKD (n = 22), liver fibrosis (n = 593; 18.9% with CKD) was associated with increased CKD risk (aRR = 1.31, 1.04-1.64, p = 0.021). Increased mortality risk was observed for those with liver fibrosis (aHR = 2.30, 1.49-3.56, p = <0.001) and was higher again among people with both fibrosis and CKD (aHR = 5.07, 3.07-8.39, p = <0.014). CONCLUSIONS: Liver fibrosis was an independent risk factor for CKD in this cohort of people living with MASLD. Furthermore, those with MASLD with liver fibrosis had higher risk for mortality and this risk was further elevated among those with co-morbid CKD. Given the increased risk of CKD, and consequent mortality risk, among people living with MASLD fibrosis, renal function screening should be considered within liver health surveillance programmes and guidelines.

Long-term risk factors for developing Barrett's oesophagus in patients with gastro-oesophageal reflux disease: a longitudinal cohort study.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Several characteristics are known to affect the risk of Barrett's oesophagus (BO) in the general population, with symptomatic gastro-oesophageal reflux disease (GORD) being a critical risk factor. In this study, we examined factors that influence BO development in people living with GORD. DESIGN: People living with GORD were recruited from an endoscopy unit with lifestyle, medical and prescribing history collected. Logistic regression analysis was undertaken to assess the effects of multiple parameters on the likelihood of developing BO. RESULTS: 1197 participants were recruited. Most were Caucasian (n=1188, 99%), had no formal educational qualifications (n=714; 59.6%) and lived with overweight (mean body mass index >25 kg/m2). Many lived in areas of least socioeconomic resource (n=568; 47.4%). 139 (11.6%) had BO at baseline. In adjusted baseline analysis (n=1197), male sex (adjusted OR, aOR 2.04 (95% CI 1.92 to 4.12), p≤0.001), increasing age (aOR 1.03 (95% CI 1.01 to 1.04), p≤0.0001) and proton pump inhibitor use (aOR 3.03 (95% CI 1.80 to 5.13), p≤0.0001) were associated with higher odds of BO. At follow-up (n=363), 22 (6.1%) participants developed BO; male sex (aOR 3.18 (95% CI 1.28 to 7.86), p=0.012), pack-years cigarettes smoked (aOR 1.04 (95% CI 1.00 to 1.08), p=0.046) and increased alcohol intake (aOR 1.02 (95% CI 1.00 to 1.04), p=0.013), were associated with increased odds of BO. CONCLUSION: Male sex, pack-years cigarettes smoked, and increasing alcohol intake, were independently associated with increased odds of developing BO over 20-year follow-up. These results align with research linking male sex and smoking with BO and extend this by implicating the potential role of alcohol in developing BO, which may require communication through public health messaging.

Implementation of a liver health check in people with type 2 diabetes.

As morbidity and mortality related to potentially preventable liver diseases are on the rise globally, early detection of liver fibrosis offers a window of opportunity to prevent disease progression. Early detection of non-alcoholic fatty liver disease allows for initiation and reinforcement of guidance on bodyweight management, risk stratification for advanced liver fibrosis, and treatment optimisation of diabetes and other metabolic complications. Identification of alcohol-related liver disease provides the opportunity to support patients with detoxification and abstinence programmes. In all patient groups, identification of cirrhosis ensures that patients are enrolled in surveillance programmes for hepatocellular carcinoma and portal hypertension. When considering early detection strategies, success can be achieved from applying ad-hoc screening for liver fibrosis in established frameworks of care. Patients with type 2 diabetes are an important group to consider case findings of advanced liver fibrosis and cirrhosis, as up to 19% have advanced fibrosis (which is ten times higher than the general population) and almost 70% have non-alcoholic fatty liver disease. Additionally, patients with type 2 diabetes with alcohol use disorders have the highest proportion of liver-related morbidity of people with type 2 diabetes generally. Patients with type 2 diabetes receive an annual diabetes review as part of their routine clinical care, in which the health of many organs are considered. Yet, liver health is seldom included in this review. This Viewpoint argues that augmenting the existing risk stratification strategy with an additional liver health check provides the opportunity to detect advanced liver fibrosis, thereby opening a window for early interventions to prevent end-stage liver disease and its complications, including hepatocellular carcinoma.

Mortality rates among patients successfully treated for hepatitis C in the era of interferon-free antivirals: population based cohort study.

OBJECTIVES: To quantify mortality rates for patients successfully treated for hepatitis C in the era of interferon-free, direct acting antivirals and compare these rates with those of the general population. DESIGN: Population based cohort study. SETTING: British Columbia, Scotland, and England (England cohort consists of patients with cirrhosis only). PARTICIPANTS: 21 790 people who were successfully treated for hepatitis C in the era of interferon-free antivirals (2014-19). Participants were divided into three liver disease severity groups: people without cirrhosis (pre-cirrhosis), those with compensated cirrhosis, and those with end stage liver disease. Follow-up started 12 weeks after antiviral treatment completion and ended on date of death or 31 December 2019. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Crude and age-sex standardised mortality rates, and standardised mortality ratio comparing the number of deaths with that of the general population, adjusting for age, sex, and year. Poisson regression was used to identify factors associated with all cause mortality rates. RESULTS: 1572 (7%) participants died during follow-up. The leading causes of death were drug related mortality (n=383, 24%), liver failure (n=286, 18%), and liver cancer (n=250, 16%). Crude all cause mortality rates (deaths per 1000 person years) were 31.4 (95% confidence interval 29.3 to 33.7), 22.7 (20.7 to 25.0), and 39.6 (35.4 to 44.3) for cohorts from British Columbia, Scotland, and England, respectively. All cause mortality was considerably higher than the rate for the general population across all disease severity groups and settings; for example, all cause mortality was three times higher among people without cirrhosis in British Columbia (standardised mortality ratio 2.96, 95% confidence interval 2.71 to 3.23; P<0.001) and more than 10 times higher for patients with end stage liver disease in British Columbia (13.61, 11.94 to 15.49; P<0.001). In regression analyses, older age, recent substance misuse, alcohol misuse, and comorbidities were associated with higher mortality rates. CONCLUSION: Mortality rates among people successfully treated for hepatitis C in the era of interferon-free, direct acting antivirals are high compared with the general population. Drug and liver related causes of death were the main drivers of excess mortality. These findings highlight the need for continued support and follow-up after successful treatment for hepatitis C to maximise the impact of direct acting antivirals.

Systematic review: the role of frailty in advanced chronic liver disease.

BACKGROUND: Frailty is a known predictor of outcome and mortality in patients undergoing liver transplantation. However, most patients remain unsuitable transplant candidates. It is not yet known if the assessment of frailty in non-transplant candidates can aid prognostication. AIM: To collate and interrogate the various frailty tools presently used to predict mortality in the non-transplant cirrhosis setting. METHODS: A comprehensive review of MEDLINE and EMBASE databases for articles published from inception to March 2022 was undertaken, excluding those where patients underwent transplantation or had hepatocellular carcinoma. RESULTS: We identified 12 observational cohort studies, featuring 9 frailty indices. These were from various global healthcare settings and of fair or good quality. Most were objective tools utilising clinician-based assessments. All frailty scores predicted prognosis, with variability in the method of application, and utilisation in long- or short-term mortality. Three studies directly compared different indices in the same population. There was some evidence that simple tools could perform as well, if not better, than more complex, time-consuming scores. CONCLUSIONS: Various frailty tools can reproducibly evaluate mortality in patients with cirrhosis who are ineligible for transplant. However, further prospective head-to-head comparative studies are needed. In addition to determining model utility, studies should focus on important relative considerations which may limit widespread implementation including, ease of use and limited resources, given the global disparity of liver care provision. These tools may positively identify specific patient cohorts at risk of impending deterioration, thereby stratifying those patients likely to benefit from early integration with palliative care.

How to Effectively Monitor Aging Patients with Chronic Hepatitis B: A Review.

Hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection is a major global public health challenge associated with significant morbidity and mortality. Due to worldwide population aging, HBV infection in the elderly will become increasingly prevalent. Effective universal vaccination programs exist but these are largely targeted towards the younger population. Therefore, the elderly population remains at risk of higher disease burden. New diagnoses of HBV infection in the elderly are usually asymptomatic chronic infections which increases their risk of developing cirrhosis, hepatocellular carcinoma, and liver disease-related mortality, especially if left untreated. Physiological changes and the increasing prevalence of multimorbidity associated with aging also potentially worsen outcomes in elderly patients with chronic HBV infection. Therefore, this cohort of patients should be monitored closely and effectively. Current international clinical practice guidelines unfortunately do not provide hard treatment endpoints specific to elderly patients with chronic HBV infection. Management of these patients is complex and requires an individualized approach. Multiple factors such as physiological changes, comorbidities, compliance, treatment tolerability and efficacy, burden of treatment, and realistic treatment goals need to be considered. Shared decision-making between patient and clinician is essential to ensure that the final decision for or against treatment aligns with the patient's values and preferences. This review article aims to summarize the monitoring and management of chronic HBV infection in the aging population.

Comparing Predicted Probability of Hepatocellular Carcinoma in Patients With Cirrhosis With the General Population: An Opportunity to Improve Risk Communication?

INTRODUCTION: Risk scores estimating a patient's probability of a hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) diagnosis are abundant but are difficult to interpret in isolation. We compared the predicted HCC probability for individuals with cirrhosis and cured hepatitis C with the general population (GP). METHODS: All patients with cirrhosis achieving sustained viral response (SVR) in Scotland by April 2018 were included (N = 1,803). The predicted 3-year probability of HCC at time of SVR achievement was determined using the aMAP prognostic model. GP data on the total number of incident HCCs in Scotland, stratified by demographics, were obtained from Public Health Scotland. Predicted HCC risk of cirrhosis SVR patients was compared with GP incidence using 2 metrics: (i) incidence ratio: i.e., 3-year predicted probability for a given patient divided by the 3-year probability in GP for the equivalent demographic group and (ii) absolute risk difference: the 3-year predicted probability minus the 3-year probability in the GP. RESULTS: The mean predicted 3-year HCC probability among cirrhosis SVR patients was 3.64% (range: 0.012%-36.12%). Conversely, the 3-year HCC probability in the GP was much lower, ranging from <0.0001% to 0.25% depending on demographics. The mean incidence ratio was 410, ranging from 5 to >10,000. The mean absolute risk difference was 3.61%, ranging from 0.012% to 35.9%. An online HCC-GP comparison calculator for use by patients/clinicians is available at https://thrive-svr.shinyapps.io/RShiny/ . DISCUSSION: Comparing a patient's predicted HCC probability with the GP is feasible and may help clinicians communicate risk information and encourage screening uptake.

Thrombocytosis and abnormal liver enzymes: A trigger for investigation of underlying malignancy.

BACKGROUND: Thrombocytosis is often an incidental finding in primary care with a range of causes. Despite evidence of a strong association between thrombocytosis and malignancy, guidelines for investigating thrombocytosis in the absence of red flag symptoms remain unclear. A novel automated system of laboratory analysis, intelligent Liver Function Testing (iLFT), launched in Tayside in 2018 and has identified a patient group with thrombocytosis and abnormal liver test (LFT) results. This study analysed the outcome of these patients and investigated the use of thrombocytosis combined with LFTs in predicting risk of cancer. METHODS AND FINDINGS: Between August 2018 and August 2020, 6792 patients underwent iLFT, with 246 found to have both thrombocytosis and at least one abnormal LFT. A random case-matched control group of 492 iLFT patients with normal platelet count and at least one abnormal LFT was created. 7.7% (95% CI 4.7-11.8%) of patients with thrombocytosis had cancer compared to 2.0% (1.0-3.7%) of controls. Patients <40 years or with pre-existing causes of thrombocytosis were then excluded. Subsequent analysis revealed a 10.8% (6.6-16.3%) incidence of cancer in thrombocytosis patients (n = 176) compared to 2.5% (1.2-4.6%, p = 0.00014) in patients with normal platelet count (PLT) (n = 398). When thrombocytosis is combined with elevated alkaline phosphatase (ALP), there is a positive predictive value (PPV) of 20% for cancer. These rules were subsequently applied to a validation cohort of 71,652 patients, of whom 458 had thrombocytosis and elevated ALP. There was a 30.6% cancer incidence, confirming the strong predictive value of the combined test of PLT and ALP. CONCLUSIONS: These findings suggest a substantial increased risk of cancer in patients with thrombocytosis and raised ALP. This could be developed as an adjunct to current investigation algorithms, highlighting high-risk patients and prompting further investigation (such as computed tomography scans) where indicated.

Metabolic dysfunction-related liver disease as a risk factor for cancer.

OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study was to investigate the association between obesity, diabetes and metabolic related liver dysfunction and the incidence of cancer. DESIGN: This study was conducted with health record data available from the National Health Service in Tayside and Fife. Genetics of Diabetes Audit and Research Tayside, Scotland (GoDARTS), Scottish Health Research Register (SHARE) and Tayside and Fife diabetics, three Scottish cohorts of 13 695, 62 438 and 16 312 patients, respectively, were analysed in this study. Participants in GoDARTS were a volunteer sample, with half having type 2 diabetes mellitus(T2DM). SHARE was a volunteer sample. Tayside and Fife diabetics was a population-level cohort. Metabolic dysfunction-related liver disease (MDLD) was defined using alanine transaminase measurements, and individuals with alternative causes of liver disease (alcohol abuse, viruses, etc) were excluded from the analysis. RESULTS: MDLD associated with increased cancer incidence with a HR of 1.31 in a Cox proportional hazards model adjusted for sex, type 2 diabetes, body mass index(BMI), and smoking status (95% CI 1.27 to 1.35, p<0.0001). This was replicated in two further cohorts, and similar associations with cancer incidence were found for Fatty Liver Index (FLI), Fibrosis-4 Index (FIB-4) and non-alcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH). Homozygous carriers of the common non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) risk-variant PNPLA3 rs738409 had increased risk of cancer. (HR=1.27 (1.02 to 1.58), p=3.1×10 -2). BMI was not independently associated with cancer incidence when MDLD was included as a covariate. CONCLUSION: MDLD, FLI, FIB-4 and NASH associated with increased risk of cancer incidence and death. NAFLD may be a major component of the relationship between obesity and cancer incidence.

Advances and Emerging Therapies in the Treatment of Non-alcoholic Steatohepatitis.

Non-alcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH) now represents one of the most prevalent forms of cirrhosis and hepatocellular carcinoma. A number of treatment agents have undergone assessment in humans following promising results in animal models. Currently, about 50 therapeutic agents are in various stages of development. Recently, however, there have been a number of exciting and positive developments in this landscape, although there are inherent challenges ahead. In this article, we review the aetiological and pathological basis of NASH progression and describe putative targets for current therapies. We also discuss some of the likely future directions and difficulties around this complex and challenging disease paradigm.

Declining incidence of hepatitis C related hepatocellular carcinoma in the era of interferon-free therapies: A population-based cohort study.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: The impact of interferon (IFN)-free therapies on the epidemiology of hepatitis C virus (HCV) related hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is not well understood at a population level. Our goal was to bridge this evidence gap. METHODS: This study included all patients in Scotland with chronic HCV and a diagnosis of cirrhosis during 1999-2019. Incident cases of HCC, episodes of curative HCC therapy, and HCC-related deaths were identified through linkage to nationwide registries. Three time periods were examined: 1999-2010 (pegylated interferon-ribavirin [PIR]); 2011-2013 (First-generation DAA); and 2014-2019 (IFN-free era). We used regression modelling to determine time trends for (i) number diagnosed and living with HCV cirrhosis, (ii) HCC cumulative incidence, (iii) HCC curative treatment uptake and (iv) post-HCC mortality. RESULTS: 3347 cirrhosis patients were identified of which 381 (11.4%) developed HCC. After HCC diagnosis, 140 (36.7%) received curative HCC treatment and there were 202 deaths from HCC. The average annual number of patients diagnosed and living with HCV cirrhosis was approximately seven times higher in the IFN-free versus the PIR era, whereas the number of incident HCCs was four times higher. However, the cumulative incidence of HCC was significantly lower in the IFN-free versus PIR era (sdHR: 0.65; 95%CI:0.47-0.88; P = .006). Among HCC patients, diagnosis in the IFN-free era was not associated with improved uptake of curative treatment (aOR:1.18; 95%CI:0.69-2.01; P = .54), or reduced post-HCC mortality (sdHR: 0.74; 95%CI:0.53-1.05; P = .09). CONCLUSIONS: The cumulative incidence of HCC is declining in HCV cirrhosis patients, but uptake of curative HCC therapy and post-HCC survival remains suboptimal.

Gamma-Glutamyl Transferase (γ-GT) - an old dog with new tricks?

Gamma-Glutamyl Transferase (γGT) is a key transferase involved in the transpeptidation of functional gamma-glutamyl groups to various receptor moieties. It performs important roles in antioxidant defence mechanisms, particularly glutathione recycling, xenobiotic metabolism, but analogously may also have a pro-oxidant role. γGT is very sensitive for the diagnosis of liver injury, although it has poor specificity for particular aetiologies. It has been used to reflect temporal changes as a form of monitoring depending on aetiology. Given its cellular role in antioxidant function, it has been investigated as a surrogate biomarker of oxidative stress. It has also been found to be a predictor of mortality across a spectra of non-hepatic disease pathologies, from metabolic and cardiovascular risk to chronic kidney disease and neoplasia. Similarly, it also remains of interest to the insurance industry given an apparent ability to predict mortality, in addition to a historical interest from law enforcement as a marker of chronic alcohol ingestion. Here, we review some of the unique characteristics of this important enzyme, previously considered as a mere specific marker of liver dysfunction, but now with clear extra-hepatic implications and novel applications and utility.

Competing Risk Bias in Prognostic Models Predicting Hepatocellular Carcinoma Occurrence: Impact on Clinical Decision-making.

Background and Aims: Existing models predicting hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) occurrence do not account for competing risk events and, thus, may overestimate the probability of HCC. Our goal was to quantify this bias for patients with cirrhosis and cured hepatitis C. Methods: We analyzed a nationwide cohort of patients with cirrhosis and cured hepatitis C infection from Scotland. Two HCC prognostic models were developed: (1) a Cox regression model ignoring competing risk events and (2) a Fine-Gray regression model accounting for non-HCC mortality as a competing risk. Both models included the same set of prognostic factors used by previously developed HCC prognostic models. Two predictions were calculated for each patient: first, the 3-year probability of HCC predicted by model 1 and second, the 3-year probability of HCC predicted by model 2. Results: The study population comprised 1629 patients with cirrhosis and cured HCV, followed for 3.8 years on average. A total of 82 incident HCC events and 159 competing risk events (ie, non-HCC deaths) were observed. The mean predicted 3-year probability of HCC was 3.37% for model 1 (Cox) and 3.24% for model 2 (Fine-Gray). For most patients (76%), the difference in the 3-year probability of HCC predicted by model 1 and model 2 was minimal (ie, within 0 to ±0.3%). A total of 2.6% of patients had a large discrepancy exceeding 2%; however, these were all patients with a 3-year probability exceeding >5% in both models. Conclusion: Prognostic models that ignore competing risks do overestimate the future probability of developing HCC. However, the degree of overestimation-and the way it is patterned-means that the impact on HCC screening decisions is likely to be modest.

Study protocol: a multicentre, open-label, parallel-group, phase 2, randomised controlled trial of autologous macrophage therapy for liver cirrhosis (MATCH).

INTRODUCTION: Liver cirrhosis is a growing global healthcare challenge. Cirrhosis is characterised by severe liver fibrosis, organ dysfunction and complications related to portal hypertension. There are no licensed antifibrotic or proregenerative medicines and liver transplantation is a scarce resource. Hepatic macrophages can promote both liver fibrogenesis and fibrosis regression. The safety and feasibility of peripheral infusion of ex vivo matured autologous monocyte-derived macrophages in patients with compensated cirrhosis has been demonstrated. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: The efficacy of autologous macrophage therapy, compared with standard medical care, will be investigated in a cohort of adult patients with compensated cirrhosis in a multicentre, open-label, parallel-group, phase 2, randomised controlled trial. The primary outcome is the change in Model for End-Stage Liver Disease score at 90 days. The trial will provide the first high-quality examination of the efficacy of autologous macrophage therapy in improving liver function, non-invasive fibrosis markers and other clinical outcomes in patients with compensated cirrhosis. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: The trial will be conducted according to the ethical principles of the Declaration of Helsinki 2013 and has been approved by Scotland A Research Ethics Committee (reference 15/SS/0121), National Health Service Lothian Research and Development department and the Medicine and Health Care Regulatory Agency-UK. Final results will be presented in peer-reviewed journals and at relevant conferences. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBERS: ISRCTN10368050 and EudraCT; reference 2015-000963-15.

Evaluating and communicating hepatitis C cascades of care data in Tayside, Scotland: A journey towards elimination.

Chronic hepatitis C virus (HCV) is one of the leading causes of liver cirrhosis and hepatocellular carcinoma. The WHO 2030 Elimination Goals require each country to evaluate their response to their epidemics. This can be achieved by visualization of cascades of care, depicting how infected cases move through disease control stages. However, methods of displaying data are debated and lack practical application. This project proposes a new way of codifying and displaying HCV data using Tayside as a case study. 1464 cases of active HCV infections in Tayside from 2015 to 2019 were analysed from NHS Tayside's HCV Database. Variables were evaluated to create a systematic coding framework that was then used to code each patient's diagnosis, treatment and cure status each year from 2015 to 2019. Graphical representation of the data in the form of a stacked clustered bar chart demonstrates general trends and conversion rates. For example, Tayside has seen an increase in diagnosis-to-cure rates from 18% to 49% (2015-2019). This method also demonstrates the portion of newly and previously diagnosed people accessing treatment, those with unsuccessful or incomplete treatments, completed treatments with unconfirmed cure, and the number of deaths and relocations. In conclusion, this project proposes a novel way of displaying cascades of care data that relays yearly snapshots of an epidemic, cumulative progression over time, nuanced information of each stage and progression towards elimination targets. This method can be meaningfully used to improve local service planning, knowledge exchange across health systems and reporting to bodies like the WHO.

Effectiveness of the use of implementation intentions on reduction of substance use: A meta-analysis.

OBJECTIVE: Background: Substance use, such as alcohol drinking, tobacco smoking and illicit drug use, have been associated with severe health conditions and an annual estimated 12 % of all deaths worldwide. Implementation intentions are self-regulatory processes which help achieve health-related behaviour change. OBJECTIVES: To investigate the effectiveness of forming implementation intentions to reduce substance use. DESIGN: Data sources: PsycINFO, MEDLINE, Psychology and Behavioural Science Collection, clinicaltrials.gov, UK Clinical Trials Gateway, Reference lists. INCLUSION CRITERIA: RCT of substance users forming implementation intentions to reduce consumption (active or passive control condition present). STUDY APPRAISAL AND SYNTHESIS METHODS: the SIGN checklist for RCT quality was used for quality appraisal, data was extracted by two reviewers. RESULTS: Twenty-one studies were included in the meta-analysis. The overall effect size for alcohol use was g = 0.31 (95 % CI: 0.21, 0.42), p < .001; for tobacco smoking g = 0.31 (CI: 0.12, 0.5), p = .002; no studies were retrieved for the use of implementation intentions on illicit drug use. CONCLUSION: This review suggests that implementation intention interventions are effective in reducing some forms of substance use (alcohol use and tobacco smoking), albeit revealing small effect sizes, among the general population and students in secondary and higher education. Review registration number: CRD42018116170.

Eradicating hepatitis C: Are novel screening strategies for people who inject drugs cost-effective?

BACKGROUND: In developed countries, people who inject drugs (PWID) have a high prevalence of hepatitis C virus (HCV), yet they are often under-diagnosed. The World Health Organization has set 2030 as a target year for HCV elimination. To meet this target, improving screening in convenient community settings in order to reach infected undiagnosed individuals is a priority. This study assesses the cost-effectiveness of alternative novel strategies for diagnosing HCV infection in PWID. METHODS: A cost-effectiveness analysis was undertaken to compare HCV screening at needle exchange centres, substance misuse services and at community pharmacies, with the standard practice of detection during general practitioners' consultations. A decision tree model was developed to assess the incremental cost per positive diagnosis, and a Markov model explored the net monetary benefit (NMB) and the cost per Quality Adjusted Life Years (QALYs) gained over a lifetime horizon. RESULTS: Needle exchange services provided a 7.45-fold increase in detecting positive individuals and an incremental cost of £12,336 per QALY gained against current practice (NMB £163,827), making this the most cost-effective strategy over a lifetime horizon. Screening at substance misuse services and pharmacies was cost-effective only at a £30,000/QALY threshold. With a 24% discount to HCV treatment list prices, all three screening strategies become cost-effective at £20,000/QALY. CONCLUSIONS: Targeting PWID populations with screening at needle exchange services is a highly cost-effective strategy for reaching undiagnosed HCV patients. When applying realistic discounts to list prices of drug treatments, all three strategies were highly cost-effective from a UK NHS perspective. All of these strategies have the potential to make a cost-effective contribution to the eradication of HCV by 2030.

Real-world impact following initiation of interferon-free hepatitis C regimens on liver-related outcomes and all-cause mortality among patients with compensated cirrhosis.

Few studies have investigated clinical outcomes among patients with cirrhosis who were treated with interferon (IFN)-free direct-acting antiviral (DAA). We aimed to quantify treatment impact on first decompensated cirrhosis hospital admission, first hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) admission, liver-related mortality and all-cause mortality among a national cohort of cirrhotic patients. Through record linkage between Scotland's HCV Clinical Database and inpatient/day-case hospitalization and deaths records, a study population comprising chronic HCV-infected patients with compensated cirrhosis and initiated on IFN-free DAA between 1 March 2013 and 31 March 2018 was analysed. Cox regression evaluated the association of each clinical outcome with time-dependent treatment status (on treatment, responder, nonresponder or noncompliant), adjusting for patient factors including Child-Pugh class. Among the study population (n = 1073) involving 1809 years of follow-up, 75 (7.0%) died (39 from liver-related causes), 47 progressed to decompensated cirrhosis, and 28 developed HCC. Compared with nonresponders, treatment response (96% among those attending their 12 weeks post-treatment SVR test) was associated with a reduced relative risk of decompensated cirrhosis (hazard ratio [HR] = 0.14; 95% CI: 0.05-0.39), HCC (HR = 0.17; 95% CI: 0.04-0.79), liver-related death (HR = 0.13; 95% CI: 0.05-0.34) and all-cause mortality (HR = 0.30; 95% CI: 0.12-0.76). Compared with responders, noncompliant patients had an increased risk of liver-related (HR = 6.73; 95% CI: 2.99-15.1) and all-cause (HR = 5.45; 95% CI: 3.07-9.68) mortality. For HCV patients with cirrhosis, a treatment response was associated with a lower risk of severe liver complications and improved survival. Our findings suggest additional effort is warranted to address the higher mortality among the minority of cirrhotic patients who do not comply with DAA treatment or associated RNA testing.

A systematic review and meta-analysis of community and primary-care-based hepatitis C testing and treatment services that employ direct acting antiviral drug treatments.

BACKGROUND: Direct Acting Antiviral (DAAs) drugs have a much lower burden of treatment and monitoring requirements than regimens containing interferon and ribavirin, and a much higher efficacy in treating hepatitis C (HCV). These characteristics mean that initiating treatment and obtaining a virological cure (Sustained Viral response, SVR) on completion of treatment, in non-specialist environments should be feasible. We investigated the English-language literature evaluating community and primary care-based pathways using DAAs to treat HCV infection. METHODS: Databases (Cinahl; Embase; Medline; PsycINFO; PubMed) were searched for studies of treatment with DAAs in non-specialist settings to achieve SVR. Relevant studies were identified including those containing a comparison between a community and specialist services where available. A narrative synthesis and linked meta-analysis were performed on suitable studies with a strength of evidence assessment (GRADE). RESULTS: Seventeen studies fulfilled the inclusion criteria: five from Australia; two from Canada; two from UK and eight from USA. Seven studies demonstrated use of DAAs in primary care environments; four studies evaluated integrated systems linking specialists with primary care providers; three studies evaluated services in locations providing care to people who inject drugs; two studies evaluated delivery in pharmacies; and one evaluated delivery through telemedicine. Sixteen studies recorded treatment uptake. Patient numbers varied from around 60 participants with pathway studies to several thousand in two large database studies. Most studies recruited less than 500 patients. Five studies reported reduced SVR rates from an intention-to-treat analysis perspective because of loss to follow-up before the final confirmatory SVR test. GRADE assessments were made for uptake of HCV treatment (medium); completion of HCV treatment (low) and achievement of SVR at 12 weeks (medium). CONCLUSION: Services sited in community settings are feasible and can deliver increased uptake of treatment. Such clinics are able to demonstrate similar SVR rates to published studies and real-world clinics in secondary care. Stronger study designs are needed to confirm the precision of effect size seen in current studies. Prospero: CRD42017069873.