Facilitating Safe Discharge Through Predicting Disease Progression in Moderate Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19): A Prospective Cohort Study to Develop and Validate a Clinical Prediction Model in Resource-Limited Settings.

BACKGROUND: In locations where few people have received coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) vaccines, health systems remain vulnerable to surges in severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infections. Tools to identify patients suitable for community-based management are urgently needed. METHODS: We prospectively recruited adults presenting to 2 hospitals in India with moderate symptoms of laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 to develop and validate a clinical prediction model to rule out progression to supplemental oxygen requirement. The primary outcome was defined as any of the following: SpO2 < 94%; respiratory rate > 30 BPM; SpO2/FiO2 < 400; or death. We specified a priori that each model would contain three clinical parameters (age, sex, and SpO2) and 1 of 7 shortlisted biochemical biomarkers measurable using commercially available rapid tests (C-reactive protein [CRP], D-dimer, interleukin 6 [IL-6], neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio [NLR], procalcitonin [PCT], soluble triggering receptor expressed on myeloid cell-1 [sTREM-1], or soluble urokinase plasminogen activator receptor [suPAR]), to ensure the models would be suitable for resource-limited settings. We evaluated discrimination, calibration, and clinical utility of the models in a held-out temporal external validation cohort. RESULTS: In total, 426 participants were recruited, of whom 89 (21.0%) met the primary outcome; 257 participants comprised the development cohort, and 166 comprised the validation cohort. The 3 models containing NLR, suPAR, or IL-6 demonstrated promising discrimination (c-statistics: 0.72-0.74) and calibration (calibration slopes: 1.01-1.05) in the validation cohort and provided greater utility than a model containing the clinical parameters alone. CONCLUSIONS: We present 3 clinical prediction models that could help clinicians identify patients with moderate COVID-19 suitable for community-based management. The models are readily implementable and of particular relevance for locations with limited resources.

Distinguishing bacterial versus non-bacterial causes of febrile illness - A systematic review of host biomarkers.

BACKGROUND: Acute febrile illnesses (AFIs) represent a major disease burden globally; however, the paucity of reliable, rapid point-of-care testing makes their diagnosis difficult. A simple tool for distinguishing bacterial versus non-bacterial infections would radically improve patient management and reduce indiscriminate antibiotic use. Diagnostic tests based on host biomarkers can play an important role here, and a target product profile (TPP) was developed to guide development. OBJECTIVES: To qualitatively evaluate host biomarkers that can distinguish bacterial from non-bacterial causes of AFI. DATA SOURCES: The PubMed database was systematically searched for relevant studies published between 2015 and 2019. STUDY ELIGIBILITY CRITERIA: Studies comparing diagnostic performances of host biomarkers in patients with bacterial versus non-bacterial infections were included. PARTICIPANTS: Studies involving human participants and/or human samples were included. METHODS: We collected information following PRISMA (Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses) guidelines. A risk of bias assessment was performed, based on a modified QUADAS-2 (Quality Assessment of Diagnostic Accuracy Score 2). RESULTS: We identified 1107 publications. Following screening, 55 publications were included, with 265 biomarker entries. Entries mostly comprised protein biomarkers (58.9%), followed by haematological, RNA, and metabolite biomarkers (15.5%, 8.7%, 12.5%). Sensitivity/specificity was reported for 45.7% of biomarker entries. We assessed a high overall risk of bias for most entries (75.8%). In studies with low/medium risk of bias, four biomarker entries tested in blood samples had sensitivity/specificity of more than 0.90/0.80. Only 12 additional biomarker entries were identified with sensitivity/specificity of more than 0.65/0.65. CONCLUSIONS: Most recently assessed biomarkers represent well-known biomarkers, e.g. C-reactive protein and procalcitonin. Some protein biomarkers with the highest reported performances include a combined biomarker signature (CRP, IP-10, and TRAIL) and human neutrophil lipocalin (HNL). Few new biomarkers are in the pipeline; however, some RNA signatures show promise. Further high-quality studies are needed to confirm these findings.

Aetiology of acute febrile illness among children attending a tertiary hospital in southern Ethiopia.

BACKGROUND: The diagnosis of non-malarial aetiologies, which now represent the majority of febrile illnesses, has remained problematic in settings with limited laboratory capacity. We aimed to describe common aetiologies of acute febrile illness among children in a setting where malaria transmission has declined. METHODS: A prospective cross-sectional study was conducted among children aged at least 2 months and under 13 years presenting with fever (temperature of ≥37.5 °C or a history of fever in the past 48 h) to Hawassa Comprehensive Specialized Hospital, southern Ethiopia, from May 2018 through February 2019. Clinical and demographic data were gathered for consecutive participants, and malaria microscopy, HIV testing, and blood and urine cultures were performed regardless of clinical presentation. Additionally, stool analyses (culture and rotavirus/adenovirus RDT) and throat swab for group A Streptococcus (GAS) and urine Streptococcus pneumoniae were performed by RDTs for children with specific conditions. The antimicrobial susceptibility of bacterial isolates was determined using disc diffusion method. RESULTS: During the study period 433 children were recruited, median age 20 months (range, 2 months - 12 years) and 178 (41.1%) female. Malaria was diagnosed in 14 (3.2%) of 431 children, and 3 (0.7%) had HIV infection. Bacteraemia or fungaemia was detected in 27 (6.4%) of 421 blood cultures, with Staphylococcus aureus isolated in 16 (3.8%). Urinary tract infections (UTIs) were detected in 74 (18.4%) of 402, with Escherichia coli isolated in 37 (9.2%). Among 56 children whose stool specimens were tested, 14 (25%) were positive for rotavirus, 1 (1.8%) for Salmonella Paratyphi A, and 1 (1.8%) for Shigella dysenteriae. Among those with respiratory symptoms, a throat swab test for GAS and urine test for S. pneumoniae were positive in 28 (15.8%) of 177 and 31 (17.0%) of 182, respectively. No test was positive for a pathogen in 266 (61.4%) of 433 participants. Bacterial isolates were frequently resistant to ampicillin, trimethoprim-sulfamethoxazole, tetracycline, and amoxicillin and clavulanic acid. CONCLUSION: Our results showed low proportions of malaria and bacteraemia among febrile children. In contrast, the frequent detection of UTI emphasize the need to support enhanced diagnostic capacity to ensure appropriate antimicrobial intervention.

Routine laboratory testing to determine if a patient has COVID-19.

BACKGROUND: Specific diagnostic tests to detect severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) and resulting COVID-19 disease are not always available and take time to obtain results. Routine laboratory markers such as white blood cell count, measures of anticoagulation, C-reactive protein (CRP) and procalcitonin, are used to assess the clinical status of a patient. These laboratory tests may be useful for the triage of people with potential COVID-19 to prioritize them for different levels of treatment, especially in situations where time and resources are limited. OBJECTIVES: To assess the diagnostic accuracy of routine laboratory testing as a triage test to determine if a person has COVID-19. SEARCH METHODS: On 4 May 2020 we undertook electronic searches in the Cochrane COVID-19 Study Register and the COVID-19 Living Evidence Database from the University of Bern, which is updated daily with published articles from PubMed and Embase and with preprints from medRxiv and bioRxiv. In addition, we checked repositories of COVID-19 publications. We did not apply any language restrictions. SELECTION CRITERIA: We included both case-control designs and consecutive series of patients that assessed the diagnostic accuracy of routine laboratory testing as a triage test to determine if a person has COVID-19. The reference standard could be reverse transcriptase polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) alone; RT-PCR plus clinical expertise or and imaging; repeated RT-PCR several days apart or from different samples; WHO and other case definitions; and any other reference standard used by the study authors. DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS: Two review authors independently extracted data from each included study. They also assessed the methodological quality of the studies, using QUADAS-2. We used the 'NLMIXED' procedure in SAS 9.4 for the hierarchical summary receiver operating characteristic (HSROC) meta-analyses of tests for which we included four or more studies. To facilitate interpretation of results, for each meta-analysis we estimated summary sensitivity at the points on the SROC curve that corresponded to the median and interquartile range boundaries of specificities in the included studies. MAIN RESULTS: We included 21 studies in this review, including 14,126 COVID-19 patients and 56,585 non-COVID-19 patients in total. Studies evaluated a total of 67 different laboratory tests. Although we were interested in the diagnotic accuracy of routine tests for COVID-19, the included studies used detection of SARS-CoV-2 infection through RT-PCR as reference standard. There was considerable heterogeneity between tests, threshold values and the settings in which they were applied. For some tests a positive result was defined as a decrease compared to normal vaues, for other tests a positive result was defined as an increase, and for some tests both increase and decrease may have indicated test positivity. None of the studies had either low risk of bias on all domains or low concerns for applicability for all domains. Only three of the tests evaluated had a summary sensitivity and specificity over 50%. These were: increase in interleukin-6, increase in C-reactive protein and lymphocyte count decrease. Blood count Eleven studies evaluated a decrease in white blood cell count, with a median specificity of 93% and a summary sensitivity of 25% (95% CI 8.0% to 27%; very low-certainty evidence). The 15 studies that evaluated an increase in white blood cell count had a lower median specificity and a lower corresponding sensitivity. Four studies evaluated a decrease in neutrophil count. Their median specificity was 93%, corresponding to a summary sensitivity of 10% (95% CI 1.0% to 56%; low-certainty evidence). The 11 studies that evaluated an increase in neutrophil count had a lower median specificity and a lower corresponding sensitivity. The summary sensitivity of an increase in neutrophil percentage (4 studies) was 59% (95% CI 1.0% to 100%) at median specificity (38%; very low-certainty evidence). The summary sensitivity of an increase in monocyte count (4 studies) was 13% (95% CI 6.0% to 26%) at median specificity (73%; very low-certainty evidence). The summary sensitivity of a decrease in lymphocyte count (13 studies) was 64% (95% CI 28% to 89%) at median specificity (53%; low-certainty evidence). Four studies that evaluated a decrease in lymphocyte percentage showed a lower median specificity and lower corresponding sensitivity. The summary sensitivity of a decrease in platelets (4 studies) was 19% (95% CI 10% to 32%) at median specificity (88%; low-certainty evidence). Liver function tests The summary sensitivity of an increase in alanine aminotransferase (9 studies) was 12% (95% CI 3% to 34%) at median specificity (92%; low-certainty evidence). The summary sensitivity of an increase in aspartate aminotransferase (7 studies) was 29% (95% CI 17% to 45%) at median specificity (81%) (low-certainty evidence). The summary sensitivity of a decrease in albumin (4 studies) was 21% (95% CI 3% to 67%) at median specificity (66%; low-certainty evidence). The summary sensitivity of an increase in total bilirubin (4 studies) was 12% (95% CI 3.0% to 34%) at median specificity (92%; very low-certainty evidence). Markers of inflammation The summary sensitivity of an increase in CRP (14 studies) was 66% (95% CI 55% to 75%) at median specificity (44%; very low-certainty evidence). The summary sensitivity of an increase in procalcitonin (6 studies) was 3% (95% CI 1% to 19%) at median specificity (86%; very low-certainty evidence). The summary sensitivity of an increase in IL-6 (four studies) was 73% (95% CI 36% to 93%) at median specificity (58%) (very low-certainty evidence). Other biomarkers The summary sensitivity of an increase in creatine kinase (5 studies) was 11% (95% CI 6% to 19%) at median specificity (94%) (low-certainty evidence). The summary sensitivity of an increase in serum creatinine (four studies) was 7% (95% CI 1% to 37%) at median specificity (91%; low-certainty evidence). The summary sensitivity of an increase in lactate dehydrogenase (4 studies) was 25% (95% CI 15% to 38%) at median specificity (72%; very low-certainty evidence). AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS: Although these tests give an indication about the general health status of patients and some tests may be specific indicators for inflammatory processes, none of the tests we investigated are useful for accurately ruling in or ruling out COVID-19 on their own. Studies were done in specific hospitalized populations, and future studies should consider non-hospital settings to evaluate how these tests would perform in people with milder symptoms.

Cost-Effectiveness Analysis of Sex-Stratified Plasmodium vivax Treatment Strategies Using Available G6PD Diagnostics to Accelerate Access to Radical Cure.

Tafenoquine has been licensed for the single-dose radical cure of Plasmodium vivax in adults; however, it is only recommended in patients with > 70% of normal glucose-6-phosphate dehydrogenase (G6PD) activity. Because this may hinder widespread use, we investigated sex-based treatment strategies in which all adult patients are tested with a qualitative G6PD rapid diagnostic test (RDT). Glucose-6-phosphate dehydrogenase normal males are prescribed tafenoquine in all three strategies, whereas G6PD normal females are prescribed either a low-dose 14-day primaquine regimen (PQ14, total dose 3.5 mg/kg) or a high-dose 7-day primaquine regimen (PQ7, total dose 7 mg/kg), or referred to a healthcare facility for quantitative G6PD testing before prescribing tafenoquine. Patients testing G6PD deficient are prescribed a weekly course of primaquine for 8 weeks. We compared the cost-effectiveness of these three strategies to usual care in four countries using a decision tree model. Usual care in Ethiopia does not include radical cure, whereas Afghanistan, Indonesia, and Vietnam prescribe PQ14 without G6PD screening. The cost per disability-adjusted life-year (DALY) averted was expressed through incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs). Compared with usual care, the ICERs for a sex-based treatment strategy with PQ7 for females from a healthcare provider perspective were $127 per DALY averted in Vietnam, $466 in Ethiopia, $1,089 in Afghanistan, and $4,443 in Indonesia. The PQ14 and referral options cost more while averting fewer DALYs than PQ7. This study provides an alternative cost-effective mode of rolling out tafenoquine in areas where initial testing with only a G6PD RDT is feasible.

Effect of point-of-care C-reactive protein testing on antibiotic prescription in febrile patients attending primary care in Thailand and Myanmar: an open-label, randomised, controlled trial.

BACKGROUND: In southeast Asia, antibiotic prescription in febrile patients attending primary care is common, and a probable contributor to the high burden of antimicrobial resistance. The objective of this trial was to explore whether C-reactive protein (CRP) testing at point of care could rationalise antibiotic prescription in primary care, comparing two proposed thresholds to classify CRP concentrations as low or high to guide antibiotic treatment. METHODS: We did a multicentre, open-label, randomised, controlled trial in participants aged at least 1 year with a documented fever or a chief complaint of fever (regardless of previous antibiotic intake and comorbidities other than malignancies) recruited from six public primary care units in Thailand and three primary care clinics and one outpatient department in Myanmar. Individuals were randomly assigned using a computer-based randomisation system at a ratio of 1:1:1 to either the control group or one of two CRP testing groups, which used thresholds of 20 mg/L (group A) or 40 mg/L CRP (group B) to guide antibiotic prescription. Health-care providers were masked to allocation between the two intervention groups but not to the control group. The primary outcome was the prescription of any antibiotic from day 0 to day 5 and the proportion of patients who were prescribed an antibiotic when CRP concentrations were above and below the 20 mg/L or 40 mg/L thresholds. The primary outcome was analysed in the intention-to-treat and per-protocol populations. The trial is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, number NCT02758821, and is now completed. FINDINGS: Between June 8, 2016, and Aug 25, 2017, we recruited 2410 patients, of whom 803 patients were randomly assigned to CRP group A, 800 to CRP group B, and 807 to the control group. 598 patients in CRP group A, 593 in CRP group B, and 767 in the control group had follow-up data for both day 5 and day 14 and had been prescribed antibiotics (or not) in accordance with test results (per-protocol population). During the trial, 318 (39%) of 807 patients in the control group were prescribed an antibiotic by day 5, compared with 290 (36%) of 803 patients in CRP group A and 275 (34%) of 800 in CRP group B. The adjusted odds ratio (aOR) of 0·80 (95% CI 0·65-0·98) and risk difference of -5·0 percentage points (95% CI -9·7 to -0·3) between group B and the control group were significant, although lower than anticipated, whereas the reduction in prescribing in group A compared with the control group was not significant (aOR 0·86 [0·70-1·06]; risk difference -3·3 percentage points [-8·0 to 1·4]). Patients with high CRP concentrations in both intervention groups were more likely to be prescribed an antibiotic than in the control group (CRP ≥20 mg/L: group A vs control group, p<0·0001; CRP ≥40 mg/L: group B vs control group, p<0·0001), and those with low CRP concentrations were more likely to have an antibiotic withheld (CRP <20 mg/L: group A vs control group, p<0·0001; CRP <40 mg/L: group B vs control group, p<0·0001). 24 serious adverse events were recorded, consisting of 23 hospital admissions and one death, which occurred in CRP group A. Only one serious adverse event was thought to be possibly related to the study (a hospital admission in CRP group A). INTERPRETATION: In febrile patients attending primary care, testing for CRP at point of care with a threshold of 40 mg/L resulted in a modest but significant reduction in antibiotic prescribing, with patients with high CRP being more likely to be prescribed an antibiotic, and no evidence of a difference in clinical outcomes. This study extends the evidence base from lower-income settings supporting the use of CRP tests to rationalise antibiotic use in primary care patients with an acute febrile illness. A key limitation of this study is the individual rather than cluster randomised study design which might have resulted in contamination between the study groups, reducing the effect size of the intervention. FUNDING: Wellcome Trust Institutional Strategic Support Fund grant (105605/Z/14/Z) and Foundation for Innovative New Diagnostics (FIND) funding from the Australian Government.

Neorickettsia sennetsu as a Neglected Cause of Fever in South-East Asia.

Neorickettsia sennetsu infection is rarely recognized, with less than 100 globally reported patients over the last 50 years. The disease is thought to be contracted by eating raw fish, a staple of many South-East Asian cuisines. In 2009, the first patient with sennetsu was identified in the Lao PDR (Laos), raising the question as to how common this organism and related species are in patients presenting with fever. We investigated the frequency of N. sennetsu infection at hospitals in diverse areas of Laos. Consenting febrile hospital inpatients from central (Vientiane: n = 1,013), northern (Luang Namtha: n = 453) and southern (Salavan: n = 171) Laos were screened by PCR for N. sennetsu, if no previous positive direct diagnostic test was available. A PCR-restriction fragment length polymorphism assay was developed to differentiate between N. sennetsu, Ehrlichia chaffeensis and Anaplasma phagocytophilum. To allow more detailed studies of N. sennetsu, culture was successfully established using a reference strain (ATCC VR-367), identifying a canine-macrophage cell line (DH82) to be most suitable to visually identify infection. After screening, N. sennetsu was identified and sequence confirmed in four (4/1,637; 0.2%) Lao patients. Despite the previously identified high seroprevalence of N. sennetsu antibodies in the Lao population (~17%), acute N. sennetsu infection with sufficient clinical signs to prompt hospitalization appears to be rare. The reservoir, zoonotic cycle and pathogenicity of N. sennetsu remain unclear and require further investigations.

Case report: Actinomycetoma caused by Nocardia aobensis from Lao PDR with favourable outcome after short-term antibiotic treatment.

BACKGROUND: Mycetoma is a neglected, chronic, localized, progressively destructive, granulomatous infection caused either by fungi (eumycetoma) or by aerobic actinomycetes (actinomycetoma). It is characterized by a triad of painless subcutaneous mass, multiple sinuses and discharge containing grains. Mycetoma commonly affects young men aged between 20 and 40 years with low socioeconomic status, particularly farmers and herdsmen. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: A 30 year-old male farmer from an ethnic minority in Phin District, Savannakhet Province, Lao PDR (Laos) developed a painless swelling with multiple draining sinuses of his right foot over a period of approximately 3 years. X-ray of the right foot showed osteolysis of tarsals and metatarsals. Aerobic culture of sinus discharge yielded large numbers of Staphylococcus aureus and a slow growing Gram-positive rod. The organism was subsequently identified as Nocardia aobensis by 16S ribosomal RNA gene sequencing. The patient received antimicrobial treatment with amikacin and trimethoprim-sulfamethoxazole according to consensus treatment guidelines. Although slight improvement was noted the patient left the hospital after 14 days and did not take any more antibiotics. Over the following 22 weeks the swelling of his foot subsequently diminished together with healing of discharging sinuses. CONCLUSION: This is the first published case of Actinomycetoma caused by Nocardia aobensis and the second case of Actinomycetoma from Laos. A treatment course of only 14 days with amikacin and trimethoprim-sulfamethoxazole was apparently sufficient to cure the infection, although long-term treatment up to one year is currently recommended. Treatment trials or prospective descriptions of outcome for actinomycetoma should investigate treatment efficacy for the different members of Actinomycetales, particularly Nocardia spp., with short-term and long-term treatment courses.