Effect of comorbidity and multimorbidity on adherence to follow-up recommendations among long-term breast cancer survivors.

OBJECTIVES: To study the impact of comorbidities, multimorbidity, and multimorbidity clusters on adherence to recommended follow-up guidelines among long-term breast cancer survivors. STUDY DESIGN: Retrospective cohort study based on 2078 women diagnosed with breast cancer from 2000 to 2006 and followed up from 2012 to 2016. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Adherence to breast cancer follow-up recommendations (annual medical visit and imaging) was determined. Comorbidities were classified as acute/chronic. Multimorbidity was defined as the presence of two or more chronic comorbidities aside from breast cancer. Five multimorbidity clusters were considered. Multivariate logistic regression models were fitted to determine the relationship between adherence to recommendations and the presence of comorbidities and multimorbidity, considering both sociodemographic and clinical characteristics. RESULTS: Overall adherence to recommendations was 79.5 %. Adherence was lower among long-term breast cancer survivors with no comorbidities (75.8 %). Among multimorbidity clusters, adherence was highest in the anxiety and fractures cluster (84.3 %) and was lowest in the musculoskeletal and cardiovascular cluster (76.4 %). In adjusted multivariate models, multimorbidity was associated with higher levels of adherence (OR = 1.52 95 %CI 1.16-1.99), and adherence was highest in the metabolic and degenerative cluster (OR = 2.2 95 %CI 1.4-3.5). CONCLUSION: Adherence to follow-up recommendations was higher among long-term breast cancer survivors with multimorbidity than among those without. Adherence also differed by multimorbidity cluster. These results suggest suboptimal adherence to the current follow-up recommendations in certain groups, suggesting the need to adapt clinical practice guidelines to reflect patients' comorbidities and different characteristics.

Impact of Detection Mode in a Large Cohort of Women Taking Part in a Breast Screening Program.

Objective: The aim of this study was to evaluate the existing survival rate and clinical-pathological differences among patients with breast cancer detected by mammographic screening. Materials and Methods: This multicenter cohort study examined 1,248 patients who took part in a national screening program for the early detection of breast cancer over an eight-year period. Results: Of the two patient subgroups (interval and screening), we found significant differences in the distribution of prognostic factors, with interval cases presenting at a lower mean age (p = 0.002), with higher percentages of human epidermal growth factor receptor 2 (HER-2) or triple negative and lower percentages of luminal A or luminal B carcinomas (p = 0.001), advanced stages (p<0.001), lower hormone receptor expression (p<0.001), poorer differentiation (p<0.001) and lower survival (p<0.001). Among the screening group, patients with tumors detected during the first screening round had a significantly lower mean age (p<0.001), a lower frequency of comorbidities (p = 0.038) and a lower tendency (p<0.1) to be diagnosed as triple negative breast carcinomas than incident cases. Conclusion: Our results highlight that breast tumors detected during the first screening round are frequently characterized by a more benign phenotype than the rest of the screening subgroups, which could be of help when stratifying the risk of death and selecting the best treatment option for each patient.

Adherence of long-term breast cancer survivors to follow-up care guidelines: a study based on real-world data from the SURBCAN cohort.

PURPOSE: To identify adherence to follow-up recommendations in long-term breast cancer survivors (LTBCS) of the SURBCAN cohort and to identify its determinants, using real-world data. METHODS: We conducted a retrospective study using electronic health records from 2012 to 2016 of women diagnosed with incident breast cancer in Spain between 2000 and 2006 and surviving at least 5 years. Adherence to basic follow-up recommendations, adherence according to risk of recurrence, and overall adherence were calculated based on attendance at medical appointments and imaging surveillance, by year of survivorship. Logistic regression models were fitted to depict the association between adherence and its determinants. RESULTS: A total of 2079 LTBCS were followed up for a median of 4.97 years. Of them, 23.6% had survived ≥ 10 years at baseline. We estimated that 79.5% of LTBCS were overall adherent to at least one visit and one imaging test. Adherence to recommendations decreased over time and no differences were found according to recurrence risk. Determinants of better overall adherence were diagnosis in middle age (50-69 years old), living in a more-deprived area, having fewer years of survival, receiving primary treatment, and being alive at the end of follow-up. CONCLUSION: We identified women apparently not complying with surveillance visits and tests. Special attention should be paid to the youngest and eldest women at diagnosis and to those with longer survival.

Use of health services among long-term breast cancer survivors in Spain: longitudinal study based on real-world data.

PURPOSE: This study aimed to evaluate health service utilization in Spain among long-term breast cancer survivors and to compare it with that among women with no history of breast cancer. METHODS: Study based on the SURBCAN cohort includes a sample of long-term breast cancer survivors and a sample of women without breast cancer from 5 Spanish regions. Healthcare utilization was assessed through primary care, hospital visits, and tests during the follow-up period (2012 to 2016) by using electronic health records. Annual contact rates to healthcare services were calculated, and crude and multivariate count models were fitted to estimate the adjusted relative risk of healthcare services use. RESULTS: Data were obtained from 19,328 women, including 6512 long-term breast cancer survivors. Healthcare use was higher among breast cancer survivors (20.9 vs 16.6; p < 0.0001) and decreased from >10 years of survival. Breast cancer survivors who underwent a mastectomy were more likely to have a primary care visit (RR = 3.10 95% CI 3.08-3.11). Five to ten years survivors were more likely to have hospital inpatient visits and imaging test compared to women without breast cancer (RRa = 1.35 95% CI 1.30-1.39 and RRa = 1.27 95% CI 1.25-1.29 respectively). CONCLUSION: This study shows higher use of health services in long-term breast cancer survivors than in women without breast cancer regardless of survival time. IMPLICATIONS FOR CANCER SURVIVORS: These results help to estimate the health resources needed for the growing group of breast cancer survivors and to identify risk factors that drive higher use of health services.

Multimorbidity clusters among long-term breast cancer survivors in Spain: Results of the SURBCAN study.

The disease management of long-term breast cancer survivors (BCS) is hampered by the scarce knowledge of multimorbidity patterns. The aim of our study was to identify multimorbidity clusters among long-term BCS and assess their impact on mortality and health services use. We conducted a retrospective study using electronic health records of 6512 BCS from Spain surviving at least 5 years. Hierarchical cluster analysis was used to identify groups of similar patients based on their chronic diagnoses, which were assessed using the Clinical Classifications Software. As a result, multimorbidity clusters were obtained, clinically defined and named according to the comorbidities with higher observed/expected prevalence ratios. Multivariable Cox and negative binomial regression models were fitted to estimate overall mortality risk and probability of contacting health services according to the clusters identified. 83.7% of BCS presented multimorbidity, essential hypertension (34.5%) and obesity and other metabolic disorders (27.4%) being the most prevalent chronic diseases at the beginning of follow-up. Five multimorbidity clusters were identified: C1-unspecific (29.9%), C2-metabolic and neurodegenerative (28.3%), C3-anxiety and fractures (9.7%), C4-musculoskeletal and cardiovascular (9.6%) and C5-thyroid disorders (5.3%). All clusters except C5-thyroid disorders were associated with higher mortality compared to BCS without comorbidities. The risk of mortality in C4 was increased by 64% (adjusted hazard ratio 1.64, 95% confidence interval 1.52-2.07). Stratified analysis showed an increased risk of death among BCS with 5 to 10 years of survival in all clusters. These results help to identify subgroups of long-term BCS with specific needs and mortality risks and to guide BCS clinical practice regarding multimorbidity.

Developing and validating an individualized breast cancer risk prediction model for women attending breast cancer screening.

BACKGROUND: Several studies have proposed personalized strategies based on women's individual breast cancer risk to improve the effectiveness of breast cancer screening. We designed and internally validated an individualized risk prediction model for women eligible for mammography screening. METHODS: Retrospective cohort study of 121,969 women aged 50 to 69 years, screened at the long-standing population-based screening program in Spain between 1995 and 2015 and followed up until 2017. We used partly conditional Cox proportional hazards regression to estimate the adjusted hazard ratios (aHR) and individual risks for age, family history of breast cancer, previous benign breast disease, and previous mammographic features. We internally validated our model with the expected-to-observed ratio and the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve. RESULTS: During a mean follow-up of 7.5 years, 2,058 women were diagnosed with breast cancer. All three risk factors were strongly associated with breast cancer risk, with the highest risk being found among women with family history of breast cancer (aHR: 1.67), a proliferative benign breast disease (aHR: 3.02) and previous calcifications (aHR: 2.52). The model was well calibrated overall (expected-to-observed ratio ranging from 0.99 at 2 years to 1.02 at 20 years) but slightly overestimated the risk in women with proliferative benign breast disease. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve ranged from 58.7% to 64.7%, depending of the time horizon selected. CONCLUSIONS: We developed a risk prediction model to estimate the short- and long-term risk of breast cancer in women eligible for mammography screening using information routinely reported at screening participation. The model could help to guiding individualized screening strategies aimed at improving the risk-benefit balance of mammography screening programs.

Factors that Influence Treatment Delay for Patients with Breast Cancer.

INTRODUCTION: The diagnosis or treatment of breast cancer is sometimes delayed. A lengthy delay may have a negative psychological impact on patients. The aim of our study was to evaluate the sociodemographic, clinical and pathological factors associated with delay in the provision of surgical treatment for localised breast cancer, in a prospective cohort of patients. METHODS: This observational, prospective, multicentre study was conducted in ten hospitals belonging to the Spanish national public health system, located in four Autonomous Communities (regions). The study included 1236 patients, diagnosed through a screening programme or found to be symptomatic, between April 2013 and May 2015. The study variables analysed included each patient's personal history, care situation, tumour history and data on the surgical intervention, pathological anatomy, hospital admission and follow-up. Treatment delay was defined as more than 30 days elapsed between biopsy and surgery. RESULTS: Over half of the study population experienced surgical treatment delay. This delay was greater for patients with no formal education and among widows, persons not requiring assistance for usual activities, those experiencing anxiety or depression, those who had a high BMI or an above-average number of comorbidities, those who were symptomatic, who did not receive NMR spectroscopy, who presented a histology other than infiltrating ductal carcinoma or who had poorly differentiated carcinomas. CONCLUSIONS: Certain sociodemographic and clinical variables are associated with surgical treatment delay. This study identifies factors that influence surgical delays, highlighting the importance of preventing these factors and of raising awareness among the population at risk and among health personnel.

Readmissions and complications in breast ductal carcinoma in situ: A retrospective study comparing screen- and non-screen-detected patients.

OBJECTIVE: Population-wide mammographic screening programs aim to reduce breast cancer mortality. However, a broad view of the harms and benefits of these programs is necessary to favor informed decisions, especially in the earliest stages of the disease. Here, we compare the outcomes of patients diagnosed with breast ductal carcinoma in situ in participants and non-participants of a population-based mammographic screening program. METHODS: A retrospective cohort study of all patients diagnosed with breast ductal carcinoma in situ between 2000 and 2010 within a single hospital. A total of 211 patients were included, and the median follow-up was 8.4 years. The effect of detection mode (screen-detected and non-screen-detected) on breast cancer recurrences, readmissions, and complications was evaluated through multivariate logistic regression analysis. RESULTS: In the majority of women, breast ductal carcinoma in situ was screen-detected (63.5%). Screen-detected breast ductal carcinoma in situ was smaller in size compared to those non-screen-detected (57.53% < 20 mm versus 78.03%, p = 0.002). Overall, breast-conserving surgery was the most frequent surgery (86.26%); however, mastectomy was higher in non-screen-detected breast ductal carcinoma in situ (20.78% versus 9.7%, p = 0.024). Readmissions for mastectomy were more frequent in non-screen-detected breast ductal carcinoma in situ. Psychological complications, such as fatigue, anxiety, and depression, had a prevalence of 15% within our cohort. Risk of readmissions and complications was higher within the non-screen-detected group, as evidenced by an odds ratio = 6.25 (95% confidence interval = 1.95-19.99) for readmissions and an odds ratio = 2.41 (95% confidence interval = 1.95-4.86) for complications. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings indicate that women with breast ductal carcinoma in situ breast cancer diagnosed through population-based breast cancer screening program experience a lower risk of readmissions and complications than those diagnosed outside these programs. These findings can help aid women and health professionals make informed decisions regarding screening.

Use of real-world data to study health services utilisation and comorbidities in long-term breast cancer survivors (the SURBCAN study): study protocol for a longitudinal population-based cohort study.

INTRODUCTION: Breast cancer has become a chronic disease due to survival improvement and the need to monitor the side effects of treatment and the disease itself. The aim of the SURBCAN study is to describe comorbidity, healthcare services use and adherence to preventive recommendations in long-term breast cancer survivors and to compare them with those in women without this diagnosis in order to improve and adapt the care response to this group of survivors. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: Population-based retrospective cohort study using real-world data from cancer registries and linked electronic medical records in five Spanish regions. Long-term breast cancer survivors diagnosed between 2000 and 2006 will be identified and matched by age and administrative health area with women without this diagnosis. Sociodemographic and clinical variables including comorbidities and variables on the use of health services between 2012 and 2016 will be obtained from databases in primary and hospital care. Health services use will be assessed through the annual number of visits to primary care professionals and to specialists and through annual imaging and laboratory tests. Factors associated with healthcare utilisation and comorbidities will be analysed using multilevel logistic regression models. Recruitment started in December 2018. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: This study was approved by the Ethics Committee of Parc de Salut Mar. The results of the study will be published in a peer-reviewed journal and will be presented at national and international scientific conferences and at patient associations. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: This protocol is registered in Clinical Trials.gov (identifier: NCT03846999).

Impact of comorbidity on the short- and medium-term risk of revision in total hip and knee arthroplasty.

BACKGROUND: The impact of comorbidity on the risk of revision in patients undergoing Total Knee arthroplasty (TKA) and Total Hip Arthroplasty (THA) is not currently well known. The aim of this study was to analyze the impact of comorbidity on the risk of revision in TKA and THA. METHODS: Patients recorded in the Catalan Arthroplasty Register (RACat) between 01/01/2005 and 31/12/2016 undergoing TKA (n = 49,701) and THA (n = 17,923) caused by osteoarthritis were included. As main explanatory factors, comorbidity burden was assessed by the Elixhauser index, categorized, and specific comorbidities from the index were taken into account. Descriptive analyses for comorbidity burden and specific conditions were done. Additionally, incidence at 1 and 5 years' follow-up was calculated, and adjusted Competing Risks models were fitted. RESULTS: A higher incidence of revision was observed when the number of comorbidities was high, both at 1 and 5 years for THA, but only at 1 year for TKA. Of the specific conditions, only obesity was related to the incidence of revision at 1 year in both joints, and at 5 years in TKA. The risk of revision was related to deficiency anemia and liver diseases in TKA, while in THA, it was related to peripheral vascular disorders, metastatic cancer and psychoses. CONCLUSIONS: Different conditions, depending on the joint, might be related to higher revision rates. This information could be relevant for clinical decision-making, patient-specific information and improving the results of both TKA and THA.

Tumour characteristics and survivorship in a cohort of breast cancer: the MCC-Spain study.

PURPOSE: The objective of this study is to analyse the relative survival with breast cancer in women diagnosed after new treatments were generalised and to ascertain the current effect that tumour characteristics such as grade, stage or subtype have on survival as well as the new AJCC-pathological prognostic score. METHODS: The breast cancer MCC-Spain follow-up study is a prospective cohort study of 1685 incident breast cancer cases. Women between 20 and 85 years old were recruited between the years 2008 and 2013 in 18 hospitals located in 10 Spanish provinces and they have been followed until 2017/2018. Relative survival was estimated after 3, 5 and 8 years of follow-up using Ederer II method. In addition, Weibull regression adjusted by age, hospital, grade and stage was used to investigate prognosis factors. RESULTS: Among components of TNM staging system, tumour size greater than 50 mm (i.e. T3 or T4) more than doubled the risk of dying, while N3 nodal involvement and presence of metastasis had a huge effect on mortality. The AJCC pathological prognostic score strongly correlated with survival; thus, hazard ratios increased as the score rose, being 2.31, 4.00, 4.94, 7.92, 2.26, 14.9 and 58.9 for scores IB, IIA, IIB, IIIA, IIIB, IIIC and IV, respectively. CONCLUSION: Both TNM staging and histological/molecular biomarkers are associated with overall survival in Spanish women with breast cancer; when both are combined in the AJCC pathological prognosis score, the prognostic value improved with risk indices that increased rapidly as the pathological prognosis score increased.

Factors associated with readmissions in women participating in screening programs and treated for breast cancer: a retrospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND: We aimed to identify the risk factors associated with early, late and long-term readmissions in women diagnosed with breast cancer participating in screening programs. METHODS: We performed a multicenter cohort study of 1055 women aged 50-69 years participating in Spanish screening programs, diagnosed with breast cancer between 2000 and 2009, and followed up to 2014. Readmission was defined as a hospital admission related to the disease and/or treatment complications, and was classified as early (< 30 days), late (30 days-1 year), or long-term readmission (> 1 year). We used logistic regression to estimate the adjusted odds ratios (aOR), and 95% confidence intervals (95% CI) to explore the factors associated with early, late and long-term readmissions, adjusting by women's and tumor characteristics, detection mode, treatments received, and surgical and medical complications. RESULTS: Among the women included, early readmission occurred in 76 (7.2%), late readmission in 87 (8.2%), long-term readmission in 71 (6.7%), and no readmission in 821 (77.8%). Surgical complications were associated with an increased risk of early readmissions (aOR = 3.62; 95%CI: 1.27-10.29), and medical complications with late readmissions (aOR = 8.72; 95%CI: 2.83-26.86) and long-term readmissions (aOR = 4.79; 95%CI: 1.41-16.31). CONCLUSION: Our results suggest that the presence of surgical or medical complications increases readmission risk, taking into account the detection mode and treatments received. Identifying early complications related to an increased risk of readmission could be useful to adapt the management of patients and reduce further readmissions. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.govIdentifier: NCT03165006. Registration date: May 22, 2017 (Retrospectively registered).

Exploring the Role of Breast Density on Cancer Prognosis among Women Attending Population-Based Screening Programmes.

BACKGROUND: Our aim was to assess the role of breast density on breast cancer mortality and recurrences, considering patient and tumour characteristics and the treatments received among women attending population-based screening programmes. METHODS: We conducted a retrospective cohort study among women aged 50-69 years attending population-based screening programmes, diagnosed with invasive breast cancer between 2000 and 2009, and followed up to 2014. Breast density was categorised as low density (≤25% dense tissue), intermediate density (25-50%), and high density (≥50%). Cox proportional hazards regression models were fitted to estimate the adjusted hazard ratios (aHR) and 95% confidence intervals (95% CI) for death and recurrences, adjusting by patient characteristics, mode of detection (screen-detected vs. interval cancer), and tumour features. RESULTS: The percentage of deaths and recurrences was higher among women with intermediate- and high-density breasts than among women with low-density breasts (p=0.011 for death; p=0.037 for recurrences). Adjusted Cox proportional hazards regression models revealed that women with intermediate- and high-density breasts had a higher risk of death than women with low-density breasts, being statistically significant for intermediate densities (aHR = 2.19 [95% CI: 1.16-4.13], aHR = 1.44 [95% CI: 0.67-3.1], respectively). No association was found between breast density and recurrences. CONCLUSIONS: Breast density was associated with a higher risk of death, but not of recurrences, among women participating in breast cancer screening. These findings reinforce the need to improve screening sensitivity among women with dense breasts and to routinely assess breast density, not only for its role as a risk factor for breast cancer but also for its potential influence on cancer prognosis.

Personalized breast cancer screening strategies: A systematic review and quality assessment.

BACKGROUND: The effectiveness of breast cancer screening is still under debate. Our objective was to systematically review studies assessing personalized breast cancer screening strategies based on women's individual risk and to conduct a risk of bias assessment. METHODS: We followed the standard methods of The Cochrane Collaboration and PRISMA declaration and searched the MEDLINE, EMBASE and Clinical Trials databases for studies published in English. The quality of the studies was assessed using the ISPOR-AMCP-NPC Questionnaire and The Cochrane Risk of Bias Tool. Two independent reviewers screened full texts and evaluated the risk of bias. RESULTS: Out of the 1533 initially retrieved citations, we included 13 studies. Three studies were randomized controlled trials, while nine were mathematical modeling studies, and one was an observational pilot study. The trials are in the recruitment phase and have not yet reported their results. All three trials used breast density and age to define risk groups, and two of them included family history, previous biopsies, and genetic information. Among the mathematical modeling studies, the main risk factors used to define risk groups were breast density, age, family history, and previous biopsies. Six studies used genetic information to define risk groups. The most common outcome measures were the gain in quality-adjusted life years (QALY), absolute costs, and incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER), while the main outcome in the observational study was the detection rate. In all models, personalized screening strategies were shown to be effective. The randomized trials were of good quality. The modeling studies showed moderate risk of bias but there was wide variability across studies. The observational study showed a low risk of bias but its utility was moderate due to its pilot design and its relatively small scale. CONCLUSIONS: There is some evidence of the effectiveness of screening personalization in terms of QUALYs and ICER from the modeling studies and the observational study. However, evidence is lacking on feasibility and acceptance by the target population. REVIEW REGISTRATION: PROSPERO: CRD42018110483.

Impact of adjuvant chemotherapy on the survival of patients with breast cancer diagnosed by screening.

The aim of this study is to determine the survival of patients with breast cancer treated with adjuvant chemotherapy (ACh) after the diagnosis by screening, taking comorbidity into account. This multicenter cohort study examined a population of patients taking part in four national screening programs for the early detection of breast cancer (localized or locally advanced), during the period 2000-2008. Of the 1248 cancers detected, 266 were prevalent (21.3%), 633 were incident (50.7%), and 349 were interval (27.9%). No significant differences were detected between the three groups in terms of the distribution of comorbidity according to the CCI. After a median follow-up of 102 months, 22.1% of the patients with interval cancer had died. The corresponding figures for the incident and prevalent cancers were 10.4% and 7.9%, respectively (P < .001). The adjusted Cox regression analysis by the stage, CCI and group revealed no differences in the risk of recurrence between the different groups according to the ACh performed. However, there were significant differences in the overall survival; for the interval cancer group without ACh, the risk of death was higher (Hazard ratio: 2.5 [1.0-6.2]) than for the other two groups. However, for the prevalent and incident groups that did not receive ACh, there was no greater risk of death. This study shows that adjuvant chemotherapy seems to benefit patients with interval breast cancer, who have a poorer prognosis than those with prevalent or incident cancer. However, the role of ACh is unclear with respect to prevalent and incident cancers when comorbidity is taken into account.

Cost-Effectiveness of the Screening for the Primary Prevention of Fragility Hip Fracture in Spain Using FRAX®.

To assess the cost-effectiveness of the primary prevention of fragility hip fractures through opportunistic risk-based screening using FRAX® among women aged 70 to 89 years, and the subsequent treatment with alendronate in women at high-risk, from the Spanish national health system perspective. We performed a discrete-event simulation model. Women were categorized in low, intermediate and high-risk of fragility hip fracture through screening based on the FRAX® risk assessment tool score (Spanish version). Low-risk women received lifestyle recommendations whereas the high-risk group was assigned to alendronate treatment. For women at intermediate-risk, treatment decision was based on a recalculated score considering bone mineral density (BMD). The cost-effectiveness analysis tested six scenarios defined by different FRAX® cut-off values assessing the incremental costs per averted fracture in 20 years. Deterministic sensitivity analysis was performed. We included a random sample of 5146 women obtained from a Spanish cohort of women referred for BMD. The most cost-effective intervention had an Incremental Cost-effectiveness Ratio (ICER) of 57,390 € per averted hip fracture and consisted of using the FRAX® score without BMD and treating women with a score higher than 5%. The ICER exceeded the acceptability threshold of 25,000 € in all the scenarios. Sensitivity analysis based on time to fracture, treatment efficacy, adherence to treatment and cost of dependence resulted in ICERs ranging from 39,216 € to 254,400 €. An ICER of 24,970 € was obtained when alendronate cost was reduced to 1.13 € per month. The use of FRAX® as screening tool followed by alendronate treatment is not cost-effective in senior women in Spain. Other primary preventions strategies are advisable.

A systematic review and quality assessment of individualised breast cancer risk prediction models.

BACKGROUND: Individualised breast cancer risk prediction models may be key for planning risk-based screening approaches. Our aim was to conduct a systematic review and quality assessment of these models addressed to women in the general population. METHODS: We followed the Cochrane Collaboration methods searching in Medline, EMBASE and The Cochrane Library databases up to February 2018. We included studies reporting a model to estimate the individualised risk of breast cancer in women in the general population. Study quality was assessed by two independent reviewers. Results are narratively summarised. RESULTS: We included 24 studies out of the 2976 citations initially retrieved. Twenty studies were based on four models, the Breast Cancer Risk Assessment Tool (BCRAT), the Breast Cancer Surveillance Consortium (BCSC), the Rosner & Colditz model, and the International Breast Cancer Intervention Study (IBIS), whereas four studies addressed other original models. Four of the studies included genetic information. The quality of the studies was moderate with some limitations in the discriminative power and data inputs. A maximum AUROC value of 0.71 was reported in the study conducted in a screening context. CONCLUSION: Individualised risk prediction models are promising tools for implementing risk-based screening policies. However, it is a challenge to recommend any of them since they need further improvement in their quality and discriminatory capacity.

Evaluation of the effectiveness of hip and knee implant models used in Catalonia: a protocol for a prospective registry-based study.

BACKGROUND: Monitoring results regarding the effectiveness of knee and hip arthroplasties may be useful at the clinical, economic and patient level and help reduce the number of prosthesis revisions. In Spain, and specifically in Catalonia, there is currently no systematic monitoring of the different prosthesis models available on the market. Within this context, the aim of the project presented in this protocol is to evaluate the short- and medium-term effectiveness of knee and hip models implanted in Catalonia and to identify where the results could be better or worse than expected. METHODS: A prospective observational design will be drawn up based on data from a population-based arthroplasty register for hip and knee replacements that includes data from 53 of the 61 public hospitals in Catalonia. The knee and hip prosthesis models used will be identified and classified according to the type of prosthesis, fixation and, in total hip replacements, the bearing surface. For the data analysis, two methodological approaches will be used sequentially: first, an approach based on a survival analysis, followed by an approach based on standardised revision ratios and funnel plots. Following the analyses, a panel of experts will evaluate the results to identify possible sources of bias. Lastly, those models with results better or worse than expected compared to those from the comparison group will be valued, and strengths and difficulties for routine implementation of this methodology within the Catalan Arthroplasty Register will be identified. DISCUSSION: The study presented in this protocol will allow us to identify the hip and knee prosthesis models whose results might be better or worse than expected. This information could have a potential impact at the patient, orthopaedic surgeon, healthcare manager, decision-making and industry levels, both in the short term and in the medium and long term.

External validation of the PREDICT tool in Spanish women with breast cancer participating in population-based screening programmes.

RATIONALE, AIMS, AND OBJECTIVES: To externally validate the PREDICT tool in a cohort of women participating in a population-based breast cancer screening programme who were diagnosed with breast cancer between 2000 and 2008 in Spain. METHODS: A total of 535 women were included in the validation study. We calculated predicted 5-year survival using the beta values from the development of the PREDICT model and predicted and observed events for a given risk groups. Model fit, discrimination, and calibration were evaluated. Seeking to improve the model, we also explored the impact on discrimination of the inclusion of additional variables, not in the PREDICT algorithm. RESULTS: In patients who were oestrogen receptor (ER) positive (negative), PREDICT overestimated (underestimated) the 5-year overall survival in all the subgroups studied. Analysis of model performance showed good calibration but modest discrimination (C-index, 0.697 [ER negative] and 0.768 [ER positive]). When updating the model, no additional variables were found to be significant in ER-negative patients, but for ER-positive patients, concurrent liver disease was a significant factor, its inclusion improving model discrimination (C-index, 0.817). CONCLUSIONS: The PREDICT tool does not discriminate well in our population considering only the variables of the original algorithm. More accurate tools are needed to obtain a better discrimination.

Survival and Disease-Free Survival by Breast Density and Phenotype in Interval Breast Cancers.

Background: We aimed to evaluate survival and disease-free survival in different subtypes of interval cancers by breast density, taking into account clinical and biological characteristics.Methods: We included 374 invasive breast tumors (195 screen-detected cancers; 179 interval cancers, classified into true interval, false-negatives, occult tumors and minimal-sign cancers) diagnosed in women ages 50-69 years undergoing biennial screening from 2000-2009, followed up to 2014. Breast density was categorized into non-dense (<25% dense tissue) and mixed dense breasts (≥25%). Survival curves were generated by the Kaplan-Meier method and compared by the log-rank test. Cox proportional hazard regression models were computed to estimate the adjusted hazard ratios (aHRs) and 95% confidence intervals (95% CIs) for death and recurrences by comparing women with interval and true interval cancers versus women with screen-detected cancers, controlling for tumor and patient characteristics. All analyses were stratified by breast density.Results: Interval cancers were detected in younger women, at more advanced stages, in denser breasts and showed a higher proportion of triple-negative cancers, especially among true interval cancers. Women with interval cancer and non-dense breasts had an aHR for death of 3.40 (95% CI, 0.92-12.62). Women with true interval cancers detected in non-dense breasts had the highest adjusted risk of death (aHR, 6.55; 95% CI, 1.37-31.39).Conclusions: Women with true interval cancer in non-dense breasts had a higher risk of death than women with screen-detected cancers.Impact: These results support the advisability of routinely collecting information on breast density, both for further tailoring of screening strategies and as a prognostic factor for diagnosed breast cancers. Cancer Epidemiol Biomarkers Prev; 27(8); 908-16. ©2018 AACR.