Structural Predictors of Lung Function Decline in Young Smokers with Normal Spirometry.

Rationale: Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) due to tobacco smoking commonly presents when extensive lung damage has occurred. Objectives: We hypothesized that structural change would be detected early in the natural history of COPD and would relate to loss of lung function with time. Methods: We recruited 431 current smokers (median age, 39 yr; 16 pack-years smoked) and recorded symptoms using the COPD Assessment Test (CAT), spirometry, and quantitative thoracic computed tomography (QCT) scans at study entry. These scan results were compared with those from 67 never-smoking control subjects. Three hundred sixty-eight participants were followed every six months with measurement of postbronchodilator spirometry for a median of 32 months. The rate of FEV1 decline, adjusted for current smoking status, age, and sex, was related to the initial QCT appearances and symptoms, measured using the CAT. Measurements and Main Results: There were no material differences in demography or subjective CT appearances between the young smokers and control subjects, but 55.7% of the former had CAT scores greater than 10, and 24.2% reported chronic bronchitis. QCT assessments of disease probability-defined functional small airway disease, ground-glass opacification, bronchovascular prominence, and ratio of small blood vessel volume to total pulmonary vessel volume were increased compared with control subjects and were all associated with a faster FEV1 decline, as was a higher CAT score. Conclusions: Radiological abnormalities on CT are already established in young smokers with normal lung function and are associated with FEV1 loss independently of the impact of symptoms. Structural abnormalities are present early in the natural history of COPD and are markers of disease progression. Clinical trial registered with www.clinicaltrials.gov (NCT03480347).

Phenotyping asthma with airflow obstruction in middle-aged and older adults: a CADSET clinical research collaboration.

BACKGROUND: The prevalence and clinical profile of asthma with airflow obstruction (AO) remain uncertain. We aimed to phenotype AO in population- and clinic-based cohorts. METHODS: This cross-sectional multicohort study included adults ≥50 years from nine CADSET cohorts with spirometry data (N=69 789). AO was defined as ever diagnosed asthma with pre-BD or post-BD FEV1/FVC <0.7 in population-based and clinic-based cohorts, respectively. Clinical characteristics and comorbidities of AO were compared with asthma without airflow obstruction (asthma-only) and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) without asthma history (COPD-only). ORs for comorbidities adjusted for age, sex, smoking status and body mass index (BMI) were meta-analysed using a random effects model. RESULTS: The prevalence of AO was 2.1% (95% CI 2.0% to 2.2%) in population-based, 21.1% (95% CI 18.6% to 23.8%) in asthma-based and 16.9% (95% CI 15.8% to 17.9%) in COPD-based cohorts. AO patients had more often clinically relevant dyspnoea (modified Medical Research Council score ≥2) than asthma-only (+14.4 and +14.7 percentage points) and COPD-only (+24.0 and +5.0 percentage points) in population-based and clinic-based cohorts, respectively. AO patients had more often elevated blood eosinophil counts (>300 cells/µL), although only significant in population-based cohorts. Compared with asthma-only, AO patients were more often men, current smokers, with a lower BMI, had less often obesity and had more often chronic bronchitis. Compared with COPD-only, AO patients were younger, less often current smokers and had less pack-years. In the general population, AO patients had a higher risk of coronary artery disease than asthma-only and COPD-only (OR=2.09 (95% CI 1.26 to 3.47) and OR=1.89 (95% CI 1.10 to 3.24), respectively) and of depression (OR=1.41 (95% CI 1.19 to 1.67)), osteoporosis (OR=2.30 (95% CI 1.43 to 3.72)) and gastro-oesophageal reflux disease (OR=1.68 (95% CI 1.06 to 2.68)) than COPD-only, independent of age, sex, smoking status and BMI. CONCLUSIONS: AO is a relatively prevalent respiratory phenotype associated with more dyspnoea and a higher risk of coronary artery disease and elevated blood eosinophil counts in the general population compared with both asthma-only and COPD-only.

Changes in lung function in European adults born between 1884 and 1996 and implications for the diagnosis of lung disease: a cross-sectional analysis of ten population-based studies.

BACKGROUND: During the past century, socioeconomic and scientific advances have resulted in changes in the health and physique of European populations. Accompanying improvements in lung function, if unrecognised, could result in the misclassification of lung function measurements and misdiagnosis of lung diseases. We therefore investigated changes in population lung function with birth year across the past century, accounting for increasing population height, and examined how such changes might influence the interpretation of lung function measurements. METHODS: In our analyses of cross-sectional data from ten European population-based studies, we included individuals aged 20-94 years who were born between 1884 and 1996, regardless of previous respiratory diagnoses or symptoms. FEV1, forced vital capacity (FVC), height, weight, and smoking behaviour were measured between 1965 and 2016. We used meta-regression to investigate how FEV1 and FVC (adjusting for age, study, height, sex, smoking status, smoking pack-years, and weight) and the FEV1/FVC ratio (adjusting for age, study, sex, and smoking status) changed with birth year. Using estimates from these models, we graphically explored how mean lung function values would be expected to progressively deviate from predicted values. To substantiate our findings, we used linear regression to investigate how the FEV1 and FVC values predicted by 32 reference equations published between 1961 and 2015 changed with estimated birth year. FINDINGS: Across the ten included studies, we included 243 465 European participants (mean age 51·4 years, 95% CI 51·4-51·5) in our analysis, of whom 136 275 (56·0%) were female and 107 190 (44·0%) were male. After full adjustment, FEV1 increased by 4·8 mL/birth year (95% CI 2·6-7·0; p<0·0001) and FVC increased by 8·8 mL/birth year (5·7-12·0; p<0·0001). Birth year-related increases in the FEV1 and FVC values predicted by published reference equations corroborated these findings. This height-independent increase in FEV1 and FVC across the last century will have caused mean population values to progressively exceed previously predicted values. However, the population mean adjusted FEV1/FVC ratio decreased by 0·11 per 100 birth years (95% CI 0·09-0·14; p<0·0001). INTERPRETATION: If current diagnostic criteria remain unchanged, the identified shifts in European values will allow the easier fulfilment of diagnostic criteria for lung diseases such as chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, but the systematic underestimation of lung disease severity. FUNDING: The European Respiratory Society, AstraZeneca, Chiesi Farmaceutici, GlaxoSmithKline, Menarini, and Sanofi-Genzyme.

Spirometric phenotypes from early childhood to young adulthood: a Chronic Airway Disease Early Stratification study.

BACKGROUND: The prevalences of obstructive and restrictive spirometric phenotypes, and their relation to early-life risk factors from childhood to young adulthood remain poorly understood. The aim was to explore these phenotypes and associations with well-known respiratory risk factors across ages and populations in European cohorts. METHODS: We studied 49 334 participants from 14 population-based cohorts in different age groups (≤10, >10-15, >15-20, >20-25 years, and overall, 5-25 years). The obstructive phenotype was defined as forced expiratory volume in 1 s (FEV1)/forced vital capacity (FVC) z-score less than the lower limit of normal (LLN), whereas the restrictive phenotype was defined as FEV1/FVC z-score ≥LLN, and FVC z-score

Inflammatory Endotype-associated Airway Microbiome in Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease Clinical Stability and Exacerbations: A Multicohort Longitudinal Analysis.

Rationale: Understanding the role of the airway microbiome in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) inflammatory endotypes may help to develop microbiome-based diagnostic and therapeutic approaches. Objectives: To understand the association of the airway microbiome with neutrophilic and eosinophilic COPD at stability and during exacerbations. Methods: An integrative analysis was performed on 1,706 sputum samples collected longitudinally from 510 patients with COPD recruited at four UK sites of the BEAT-COPD (Biomarkers to Target Antibiotic and Systemic COPD), COPDMAP (Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease Medical Research Council/Association of the British Pharmaceutical Industry), and AERIS (Acute Exacerbation and Respiratory Infections in COPD) cohorts. The microbiome was analyzed using COPDMAP and AERIS as a discovery data set and BEAT-COPD as a validation data set. Measurements and Main Results: The airway microbiome in neutrophilic COPD was heterogeneous, with two primary community types differentiated by the predominance of Haemophilus. The Haemophilus-predominant subgroup had elevated sputum IL-1ß and TNFα (tumor necrosis factor α) and was relatively stable over time. The other neutrophilic subgroup with a balanced microbiome profile had elevated sputum and serum IL-17A and was temporally dynamic. Patients in this state at stability were susceptible to the greatest microbiome shifts during exacerbations. This subgroup can temporally switch to both neutrophilic Haemophilus-predominant and eosinophilic states that were otherwise mutually exclusive. Time-series analysis on the microbiome showed that the temporal trajectories of Campylobacter and Granulicatella were indicative of intrapatient switches from neutrophilic to eosinophilic inflammation, in track with patient sputum eosinophilia over time. Network analysis revealed distinct host-microbiome interaction patterns among neutrophilic Haemophilus-predominant, neutrophilic balanced microbiome, and eosinophilic subgroups. Conclusions: The airway microbiome can stratify neutrophilic COPD into subgroups that justify different therapies. Neutrophilic and eosinophilic COPD are interchangeable in some patients. Monitoring temporal variability of the airway microbiome may track patient inflammatory status over time.

The sputum microbiome is distinct between COPD and health, independent of smoking history.

BACKGROUND: Airway bacterial dysbiosis is a feature of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). However, there is limited comparative data of the lung microbiome between healthy smokers, non-smokers and COPD. METHODS: We compared the 16S rRNA gene-based sputum microbiome generated from pair-ended Illumina sequencing of 124 healthy subjects (28 smokers and 96 non-smokers with normal lung function), with single stable samples from 218 COPD subjects collected from three UK clinical centres as part of the COPDMAP consortium. RESULTS: In healthy subjects Firmicutes, Bacteroidetes and Actinobacteria were the major phyla constituting 88% of the total reads, and Streptococcus, Veillonella, Prevotella, Actinomyces and Rothia were the dominant genera. Haemophilus formed only 3% of the healthy microbiome. In contrast, Proteobacteria was the most dominant phylum accounting for 50% of the microbiome in COPD subjects, with Haemophilus and Moraxella at genus level contributing 25 and 3% respectively. There were no differences in the microbiome profile within healthy and COPD subgroups when stratified based on smoking history. Principal coordinate analysis on operational taxonomic units showed two distinct clusters, representative of healthy and COPD subjects (PERMANOVA, p = 0·001). CONCLUSION: The healthy and COPD sputum microbiomes are distinct and independent of smoking history. Our results underline the important role for Gammaproteobacteria in COPD.

Immunological and Inflammatory Biomarkers of Susceptibility and Severity in Adult Respiratory Syncytial Virus Infections.

BACKGROUND: Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) is the most common cause of bronchiolitis in young infants. However, it is also a significant pathogen in older adults. Validated biomarkers of RSV disease severity would benefit diagnostics, treatment decisions, and prophylactic interventions. This review summarizes knowledge of biomarkers for RSV disease in adults. METHODS: A literature review was performed using Ovid Medline, Embase, Global health, Scopus, and Web of Science for articles published 1946-October 2016. Nine articles were identified plus 9 from other sources. RESULTS: From observational studies of natural infection and challenge studies in volunteers, biomarkers of RSV susceptibility or disease severity in adults were: (1) lower anti-RSV neutralizing antibodies, where neutralizing antibody (and local IgA) may be a correlate of susceptibility/severity; (2) RSV-specific CD8+ T cells in bronchoalveolar lavage fluid preinfection (subjects with higher levels had less severe illness); and (3) elevated interleukin-6 (IL-6), IL-8, and myeloperoxidase levels in the airway are indicative of severe infection. CONCLUSIONS: Factors determining susceptibility to and severity of RSV disease in adults have not been well defined. Respiratory mucosal antibodies and CD8+ T cells appear to contribute to preventing infection and modulation of disease severity. Studies of RSV pathogenesis in at-risk populations are needed.

Increased vulnerability of COPD patient groups to urban climate in view of global warming.

PURPOSE: Patients with COPD show an increase in acute exacerbations (AECOPD) during the cold season as well as during heat waves in the summer months. Due to global climate changes, extreme weather conditions are likely to occur more frequently in the future. The goal of this study was to identify patient groups most at risk of exacerbations during the four seasons of the year and to determine at which temperature threshold the daily hospital admissions due to AECOPD increase during the summer. PATIENTS AND METHODS: We analyzed retrospective demographic and medical data of 990 patients, who were hospitalized for AECOPD in Berlin, Germany. The cases were grouped into the following cohorts: "spring" (admission between March and May), "summer" (June - August), "autumn" (September - November), and "winter" (December - February). AECOPD hospital admissions from 2006 and 2010 were grouped into a "hot summer" cohort and cases from 2011 and 2012 into a "cold summer" data-set. Climate data were obtained from the German Meteorological Office. RESULTS: Patients hospitalized for a COPD exacerbation during winter were significantly older than summertime patients (P=0.040) and also thinner than patients exacerbating in spring (P=0.042). COPD exacerbations during hot summer periods happened more often to patients with a history of myocardial infarction (P=0.014) or active smokers (P=0.011). An AECOPD during colder summers occurred in patients with a higher Charlson index, who suffered in increased numbers from peripheral vascular diseases (P=0.016) or tumors (P=0.004). Summertime hospital admissions increased above a daily minimum temperature of 18.3°C (P=0.006). CONCLUSION: The identification of COPD patient groups most at risk for climate related exacerbations enables climate-adapted prevention through patient guidance and treatment. In view of global climate changes, discovering vulnerabilities and implementing adaptive measures will be of growing importance.

Combined Impact of Smoking and Early-Life Exposures on Adult Lung Function Trajectories.

RATIONALE: Both adverse early-life exposures and adult smoking can negatively influence adult lung function trajectory, but few studies consider how the impact of early-life exposures may be modified by subsequent smoking. METHODS: The Medical Research Council National Survey of Health and Development is a nationally representative cohort, initially of 5,362 individuals, followed since enrollment at birth in March 1946. Using data collected prospectively across life and multilevel modeling, we investigated how the relationships between early-life exposures (infant lower respiratory infection, manual social class, home overcrowding, and pollution exposure) and FEV1 and FVC trajectories between ages 43 and 60-64 years were influenced by smoking behavior. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: Among 2,172 individuals, there were synergistic interactions of smoking with infant respiratory infection (P = 0.04) and early-life home overcrowding (P = 0.009), for FEV1 at 43 years. Within smoker-stratified models, there were FEV1 deficits among ever-smokers associated with infant lower respiratory infection (-108.2 ml; P = 0.001) and home overcrowding (-89.2 ml; P = 0.002), which were not evident among never-smokers (-15.9 ml; P = 0.69 and -13.7 ml; P = 0.70, respectively). FVC modeling, including 1,960 individuals, yielded similar results. FEV1 decline was greater in smokers (P < 0.001), but there was no effect of any early-life exposure on FEV1 decline. Neither smoking nor early-life exposures were associated with FVC decline. CONCLUSIONS: Besides accelerating adult FEV1 decline, cigarette smoking also modifies how early-life exposures impact on both midlife FEV1 and FVC. These findings are consistent with smoking impairing pulmonary development during adolescence or early adulthood, thereby preventing catch-up from earlier acquired deficits.

The Presence of Chronic Mucus Hypersecretion across Adult Life in Relation to Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease Development.

RATIONALE: Chronic mucus hypersecretion (CMH) is common among smokers and is associated with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease development and progression. OBJECTIVES: To understand how the relationships between smoking, CMH, and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease develop during adult life, and facilitate earlier disease detection and intervention. METHODS: We analyzed data on CMH, smoking, and lung function prospectively collected by the Medical Research Council National Survey of Health and Development, a nationally representative British cohort followed since birth in 1946. We analyzed the longitudinal relationships between smoking and CMH, how symptoms during life related to airflow limitation at 60-64 years, and how CMH duration between ages 43 and 60-64 years related to concurrent FEV1 decline. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: From 5,362 individuals enrolled at birth, 4,427 contributed data between ages 20 and 64 years (52% male; 63% ever-smoker). Among smokers CMH prevalence escalated between ages 36 and 43 from 7.6 ± 2.0% to 13.0 ± 2.6%. At these ages, symptoms were associated with a higher risk of subsequent airflow limitation (odds ratio [95% confidence interval], 3.70 [1.62-8.45] and 4.11 [1.85-9.13], respectively). Across adult life, CMH followed a dynamic remitting-relapsing course. Symptom prevalence following smoking cessation returned to levels seen among never-smokers. The longer CMH was present across three occasions (ages 43, 53, and 60-64 yr), the greater the concurrent FEV1 decline, corresponding to an additional decrement of 3.6 ± 2.5 ml/yr per occasion that CMH was present (P = 0.005). CONCLUSIONS: CMH among middle-aged smokers represents an early developmental phase of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. Smoking-related CMH usually resolves following smoking cessation but the longer its duration the greater the FEV1 lost, suggesting the course of CMH across adult life may reflect the underlying course of airway disease activity.

Trends in management and outcomes of COPD patients in primary care, 2000-2009: a retrospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Since the introduction of the Quality and Outcomes framework, there has been some evidence of improvement in the management of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) patients in the United Kingdom through increasing rates of smoking cessation advice and immunisations against influenza. However, it is unknown whether disease-specific management criteria, disease outcomes and diagnosis have improved. AIMS: To describe changes in the management and outcomes of patients with COPD in UK general practice between 2000 and 2009. METHODS: The study was done on a retrospective cohort using data from The Health Improvement Network UK primary care database. We calculated age at diagnosis of COPD and death, total number of short-term oral corticosteroid courses and consultations, and proportion of patients with very severe COPD and on triple inhaled therapy for each year between 2000 and 2009. RESULTS: We identified 92,576 patients with COPD. The mean age at COPD diagnosis decreased from 68.1 years in 2000 to 66.7 years in 2009. The mean age at death increased from 78.2 years in 2000 to 78.8 years in 2009. The number of prescribed courses of oral corticosteroids increased from 0.6 in 2000 to 0.8 in 2009. The number of consultations increased from 9.4 in 2004 to 11.3 in 2009. The risk of having very severe COPD decreased from 9.4% in 2004 to 6.8% in 2009. The likelihood of patients with very severe COPD receiving triple therapy increased from 25% in 2004 to 59% in 2009. CONCLUSIONS: The trends suggest that management and outcomes observed in patients with COPD may have improved since the year 2000.

Human rhinovirus infection during naturally occurring COPD exacerbations.

Human rhinovirus (HRV) infection is an important trigger of exacerbations of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) but its role in determining exacerbation frequency phenotype or the time-course of HRV infection in naturally occurring exacerbations is unknown. Sputum samples from 77 patients were analysed by real-time quantitative PCR for both HRV (388 samples), and Streptococcus pneumoniae, Haemophilus influenzae and Moraxella catarrhalis (89 samples). Patients recorded worsening of respiratory symptoms on daily diary cards, from which exacerbations were identified. HRV prevalence and load at exacerbation presentation were significantly higher than in the stable state (prevalence 53.3% versus 17.2%, respectively; p<0.001) but 0% by day 35 post-exacerbation. HRV load was higher in patients with cold symptoms (p=0.046) or sore throats (p=0.006) than those without. 73% of bacterium-negative but HRV-positive exacerbations were bacterium-positive by day 14. Patients with HRV detected at exacerbation had a higher exacerbation frequency (interquartile range) of 3.01 (2.02-5.30) per year compared with patients without HRV (2.51 (2.00-3.51)) (p=0.038). HRV prevalence and load increased at COPD exacerbation, and resolved during recovery. Frequent exacerbators were more likely to experience HRV infection. Secondary bacterial infection is common after HRV infection, and provides a possible mechanism for exacerbation recurrence and a potential target for novel therapies.

Cardiovascular risk, myocardial injury, and exacerbations of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease.

RATIONALE: Patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) have elevated cardiovascular risk, and myocardial injury is common during severe exacerbations. Little is known about the prevalence, magnitude, and underlying mechanisms of cardiovascular risk in community-treated exacerbations. OBJECTIVES: To investigate how COPD exacerbations and exacerbation frequency impact cardiovascular risk and myocardial injury, and whether this is related to airway infection and inflammation. METHODS: We prospectively measured arterial stiffness (aortic pulse wave velocity [aPWV]) and cardiac biomarkers in 98 patients with stable COPD. Fifty-five patients had paired stable and exacerbation assessments, repeated at Days 3, 7, 14, and 35 during recovery. Airway infection was identified using polymerase chain reaction. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: COPD exacerbation frequency was related to stable-state arterial stiffness (rho = 0.209; P = 0.040). Frequent exacerbators had greater aPWV than infrequent exacerbators (mean ± SD aPWV, 11.4 ± 2.1 vs. 10.3 ± 2.0 ms(-1); P = 0.025). Arterial stiffness rose by an average of 1.2 ms(-1) (11.1%) from stable state to exacerbation (n = 55) and fell slowly during recovery. In those with airway infection at exacerbation (n = 24) this rise was greater (1.4 ± 1.6 vs. 0.7 ± 1.3 ms(-1); P = 0.048); prolonged; and related to sputum IL-6 (rho = 0.753; P < 0.001). Increases in cardiac biomarkers at exacerbation were higher in those with ischemic heart disease (n = 12) than those without (n = 43) (mean ± SD increase in troponin T, 0.011 ± 0.009 vs. 0.003 ± 0.006 µg/L, P = 0.003; N-terminal pro-brain natriuretic peptide, 38.1 ± 37.7 vs. 5.9 ± 12.3 pg/ml, P < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: Frequent COPD exacerbators have greater arterial stiffness than infrequent exacerbators. Arterial stiffness rises acutely during COPD exacerbations, particularly with airway infection. Increases in arterial stiffness are related to inflammation, and are slow to recover. Myocardial injury is common and clinically significant during COPD exacerbations, particularly in those with underlying ischemic heart disease.

Factors associated with change in exacerbation frequency in COPD.

BACKGROUND: Patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) can be categorized as having frequent (FE) or infrequent (IE) exacerbations depending on whether they respectively experience two or more, or one or zero exacerbations per year. Although most patients do not change category from year to year, some will, and the factors associated with this behaviour have not been examined. METHODS: 1832 patients completing two year follow-up in the Evaluation of COPD Longitudinally to Identify Predictive Surrogate End-points (ECLIPSE) study were examined at baseline and then yearly. Exacerbations were defined by health care utilisation. Patient characteristics compared between those patients who did or did not change exacerbation category from year 1 to year 2. FINDINGS: Between years 1 and 2, 221 patients (17%) changed from IE to FE and 210 patients (39%) from FE to IE. More severe disease was associated with changing from IE to FE and less severe disease from FE to IE. Over the preceding year, small falls in FEV1 and 6-minute walking distance were associated with changing from IE to FE, and small falls in platelet count associated with changing from FE to IE. CONCLUSION: No parameter clearly predicts an imminent change in exacerbation frequency category. TRIAL REGISTRATION: SCO104960, clinicaltrials.gov identifier NCT00292552.

Influence of season on exacerbation characteristics in patients with COPD.

BACKGROUND: Patients with COPD experience more frequent exacerbations in the winter. However, little is known about the impact of the seasons on exacerbation characteristics. METHODS: Between November 1, 1995, and November 1, 2009, 307 patients in the London COPD cohort (196 men; age, mean, 68.1 years [SD, 8.4]; FEV(1), mean, 1.12 L [SD, 0.46]; FEV(1), mean, % predicted, 44.4% [SD, 16.1]) recorded their increase in daily symptoms and time outdoors for a median of 1,021 days (interquartile range [IQR], 631-1,576). Exacerbation was identified as ≥ 2 consecutive days with an increase in two different symptoms. RESULTS: There were 1,052 exacerbations in the cold seasons (November to February), of which 42.5% and 50.6% were patients who had coryzal and cough symptoms, respectively, compared with 676 exacerbations in the warm seasons (May to August), of which 31.4% and 45.4% were in patients who had coryzal and cough symptoms, respectively (P < .05). The exacerbation recovery period was longer in the cold seasons (10 days; IQR, 6-19) compared with the warm seasons (9 days; IQR, 5-16; P < .005). The decrease in outdoor activity during exacerbation, relative to a pre-exacerbation period (-14 to -8 days), was greater in the cold seasons (-0.50 h/d; IQR, -1.1 to 0) than in the warm seasons (-0.26 h/d; IQR, -0.88 to 0.18; P = .048). In the cold seasons, 8.4% of exacerbations resulted in patients who were hospitalized, compared with 4.6% of exacerbations in the warm seasons (P = .005). CONCLUSIONS: Exacerbations are more severe between November and February. This contributes to the increased morbidity during the winter seasons.

SERPINA1 11478G→A variant, serum α1-antitrypsin, exacerbation frequency and FEV1 decline in COPD.

BACKGROUND: The α(1)-antitrypsin 11478G→A polymorphism may be associated with attenuated acute α(1)-antitrypsin responses. It was hypothesised that patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) and this mutation have accelerated lung function decline. OBJECTIVE: To assess whether the 11478G→A polymorphism is associated with attenuated α(1)-antitrypsin responses at COPD exacerbation, and therefore accelerated lung function decline. METHODS: Lung function decline by genotype was examined in the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing (ELSA; n=1805) and Whitehall II (n=2733) studies. 204 patients with COPD were genotyped in the London cohort and serum α(1)-antitrypsin concentration was measured at baseline and (n=92) exacerbation. RESULTS: The 11478G→A genotype frequencies did not vary between COPD cases and controls, or between COPD frequent and infrequent exacerbators. Subjects with the rare A allele experienced more rapid lung function decline in the Whitehall II (A vs non-A: 16 vs 4 ml/year p=0.02) but not ELSA (29 vs 34 ml/year, p=0.46) or London cohorts (26 vs 38 ml/year, p=0.06). Decline was not greater in frequent exacerbator A versus non-A carriers (20 vs 24 ml/year, p=0.58). Upregulation of α(1)-antitrypsin at exacerbation was not demonstrated, even in patients homozygous for the common allele (median exacerbation change -0.07 g/l 11478GG, p=0.87 and -0.09 g/l 11478AA/GA, p=0.92; p=0.90 for difference). In patients with the A allele, there was no correlation between serum α(1)-antitrypsin and serum interleukin 6 (IL-6) concentrations. CONCLUSION: The 11478G→A α(1)-antitrypsin polymorphism is not associated with increased risk of developing COPD, nor accelerated lung function decline. Serum α(1)-antitrypsin may not be upregulated early at COPD exacerbation. In patients with the 11478G→A polymorphism there was no relationship between the serum α(1)-antitrypsin and serum IL-6 concentrations.

Serum IP-10 as a biomarker of human rhinovirus infection at exacerbation of COPD.

BACKGROUND: Human rhinovirus (HRV) is the most frequent virus associated with COPD exacerbations. Viral infections increase exacerbation severity and likelihood of hospitalization. As ease of sampling blood makes serum a more practical marker than sputum, we investigated whether changes in serum interferon-gamma-inducible protein 10 (IP-10) from baseline to exacerbation were higher in airway HRV-positive exacerbations and whether IP-10 levels related to HRV load. METHODS: One hundred thirty-six patients with COPD and 70 controls were included over 2 years and 72 exacerbations sampled. HRV positivity and load were determined by reverse transcriptase-polymerase chain reaction in nasopharyngeal swabs and/or sputum at baseline and exacerbation. IP-10 was measured by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay in serum and compared with HRV load. RESULTS: At baseline, serum IP-10 was higher in patients with COPD than controls; medians were 149.4 pg/mL (103-215) and 111.7 pg/mL (82-178), P = .02. The presence of HRV at baseline did not increase IP-10: patients with COPD, 166.9 pg/mL (110-240) and 149.4 pg/mL (103-215), P = .30; controls, 136.4 pg/mL (77-204) and 111.7 pg/mL (82-178), P = .53. IP-10 increased significantly from baseline to exacerbation in HRV-positive exacerbations: 154.9 pg/mL (114.0-195.1) to 207.5 pg/mL (142.1-333.5), P = .009. There was no change in IP-10 between baseline and exacerbation in HRV-negative exacerbations: 168.3 pg/mL (94.3-249.8) and 175.6 pg/mL (107.2-290.4), P = .49. At exacerbation, IP-10 correlated with sputum viral load: rho = 0.48; P = .02. In receiver operating characteristics analysis, the combination of IP-10 and coryzal symptoms gave an area under the curve of 0.82 (95% CI, 0.74-0.90). CONCLUSIONS: IP-10 increases from baseline to exacerbation in HRV-positive exacerbations and correlates with sputum HRV load. Serum IP-10 may be useful as a novel marker for these events.

Derivation and validation of a composite index of severity in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease: the DOSE Index.

RATIONALE: Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) is increasingly recognized as a multicomponent disease with systemic consequences and effects on quality of life. Single measures such as lung function provide a limited reflection of how the disease affects patients. Composite measures have the potential to account for many of the facets of COPD. OBJECTIVES: To derive and validate a multicomponent assessment tool of COPD severity that is applicable to all patients and health care settings. METHODS: The index was derived using data from 375 patients with COPD in primary care. Regression analysis led to a model explaining 48% of the variance in health status as measured by the Clinical COPD Questionnaire with four components: dyspnea (D), airflow obstruction (O), smoking status (S), and exacerbation frequency (E). The DOSE Index was validated in cross-sectional and longitudinal samples in various health care settings in Holland, Japan, and the United Kingdom. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: The DOSE Index correlated with health status in all data sets. A high DOSE Index score (> or = 4) was associated with a greater risk of hospital admission (odds ratio, 8.3 [4.1-17]) or respiratory failure (odds ratio, 7.8 [3.4-18.3]). The index predicted exacerbations in the subsequent year (P < or = 0.014). CONCLUSIONS: The DOSE Index is a simple, valid tool for assessing the severity of COPD. The index is related to a range of clinically important outcomes such as health care consumption and predicts future events.