[Forecasting the burden of disease from diabetes under the scenarios of specific risk factors control in China in 2030].

Objective: To forecast mortality, age-standardized mortality, and probability of premature mortality from diabetes, and to simulate the impact of controlling risk factors by 2030 in China. Methods: We simulated the burden of disease from diabetes in six scenarios according to the development goals of risk factors control by the WHO and Chinese government. Based on the theory of comparative risk assessment and the estimates of the burden of disease for China from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015, we used the proportional change model to project the number of deaths, age-standardized mortality, and probability of premature mortality from diabetes under different scenarios of risk factors control in 2030. Results: If the trends in exposures to risk factors from 1990 to 2015 continued. Mortality, age-standardized mortality, and probability of premature mortality from diabetes would increase to 32.57/100 000, 17.32/100 000, and 0.84% by 2030, respectively. During that time, mortality, age-standardized mortality and probability of premature mortality for males would all be higher than for females. If the goals of controlling risk factors were all achieved, the number of deaths from diabetes in 2030 would decrease by 62.10% compared to the predicted numbers based on the historical trends in exposure to risk factors, and the probability of premature mortality would drop to 0.29%. If only the exposure to a single risk factor were achieved by 2030, high fasting plasma glucose control would have the greatest impact on diabetes, resulting in a 56.00% reduction in deaths compared to the predicted numbers based on the historical trends, followed by high BMI (4.92%), smoking (0.65%), and low physical activity (0.53%). Conclusions: Risk factors control plays an important role in reducing the number of deaths, age-standardized mortality rate, and probability of premature mortality from diabetes. We suggest taking comprehensive measures to control relevant risk factors for certain populations and regions, to achieve the goal of reducing the burden of disease from diabetes as expected.

[Potential short-term effects of tobacco control scheme under various application scenarios of tobacco control measures across the globe: a Meta-analysis].

Objective: based on summarizing the simulation and prediction of tobacco control measures across the globe and sorting out the various scenarios of tobacco control measures, the potential short-term effects of seven tobacco control measures in different scenarios were systematically analyzed. Methods: Until April 2022, PubMed, Embase, EconLit, PsychINFO, and CINAHL databases were used to retrieve literature about tobacco control measures simulation and prediction models across the globe. Inclusion and exclusion criteria were strictly followed. Meta-analysis for the potential short-term effects of seven tobacco control measures in different scenarios was performed using the R software. Results: A total of 22 papers covering 16 countries were selected. Five studies were conducted in the United States, three in Mexico, and two in Italy. There were all papers with the measures to tax increases, smoke-free air laws, and mass media campaigns, 21 papers with youth access restrictions, 20 with marketing restrictions, and 19 with cessation treatment programs and health warnings. The tax increases had diverse influences on the price elasticity of different age groups. The price elasticity in the age group 15-17 years was the highest, which was 0.044 (95%CI: 0.038-0.051). The potential short-term effects of smoke-free air laws in workplaces were higher than in restaurants and other indoor public places. The effects of youth access restrictions were greater in the age group <16 years than in the age group 16-17. The stronger the implementation of other measures, the greater the potential short-term effects. A comparison of seven tobacco control measures showed that the cessation treatment programs increase in cessation rate was the highest, 0.404 (95%CI: 0.357-0.456). The reduction in smoking rate and reduction in initiation rate of youth access restrictions strongly enforced and publicized was the highest in the age group <16 years, 0.292 (95%CI: 0.269-0.315), and 0.292 (95%CI: 0.270-0.316). Conclusions: The potential short-term effects of seven tobacco control measures in different scenarios were evaluated more accurately and objectively through Meta-analysis. In the short term, cessation treatment programs will substantially increase smoking cessation rates, and strong youth access enforcement will sharply reduce smoking and initiation rates among adolescents under 16. These results also offer strong data-related support for the simulation and prediction of tobacco control measures in China and other countries.

[Predictions of achievement of Sustainable Development Goal to reduce age-standardized mortality rate of four major non-communicable diseases by 2030 in China].

Objective: To predicate whether China can achieve the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) 3.4.1 to reduce the age-standardized mortality rate of four major non-communicable diseases (NCDs) in residents aged 30-70 years by 2030 based on the trend of the mortality from 1990 to 2019. Methods: We collected the mortality data on cardiovascular diseases, cancers, chronic respiratory diseases, and diabetes by age, gender and year in China from the Global Disease Burden Study 2019 (GBD2019). The age-period-cohort (APC) Bayesian model was applied for modeling the age-standardized mortality rate of four major NCDs in China during 2020-2030 according to the trend of the mortality during 1990-2019, and comparing the predicted value in 2030 with the observed value in 2015 to evaluate the possibility of achieving SDGs 3.4.1. Results: The age-standardized mortality rate of the four major NCDs in China showed a downward trend during 1990-2019. It is predicted that the number of death of the four NCDs in Chinese residents aged 30-70 years would increase from 2.96 million in 2020 to 3.19 million in 2030, while the age-standardized mortality rate would decrease from 308.49/100 000 in 2020 to 277.80/100 000 in 2030. The age-standardized mortality rate in 2030 would only decrease by 15.94% (18.73% for males and 14.31% for females) compared with 330.46/100 000 in 2015, with a 25.09% decrease for cardiovascular diseases, 4.76% for cancers, 37.21% for chronic respiratory diseases, and unchanged for diabetes. Conclusion: Although the age-standardized mortality rate of four major NCDs declined from 1990 to 2019 in China, it is difficult to achieve the SDGs of a 1/3 mortality rate reduction by 2030 according to the current declining trend, suggesting more active and effective efforts for NCD prevention and control are needed.

[Prediction on the burden of disease of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease and simulation of the effectiveness of controlling risk factors in China by 2030].

Objective: To forecast the burden of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) in China by 2030 and evaluate the effectiveness of controlling risk factors based on the predictive model. Methods: Based on the relationship between the death of COPD and exposure to risk factors and the theory of comparative risk assessment, we used the estimates of the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015 (GBD2015) for China, targets for controlling risk factors, and proportion change model to project the number of deaths, standardized mortality rate, and probability of premature mortality from chronic respiratory diseases by 2030 in different scenarios and to evaluate the impact of controlling the included risk factors to the disease burden of COPD in 2030. Results: If the trends in exposure to risk factors from 1990 to 2015 continued, the number of deaths and the mortality for COPD would be 1.06 million and 73.85 per 100 000 population in China by 2030, respectively, with an increase of 15.81% and 10.69% compared to those in 2015. Compared to 2015, the age-standardized mortality rate would decrease by 38.88%, and the premature mortality would reduce by 52.73% by 2030. If the smoking rate and fine particulate matter (PM2.5) concentration separately achieve their control targets by 2030, there would be 0.34 and 0.27 million deaths that could be avoided compared to the predicted numbers based on the natural trends in exposure to risk factors and the probability of premature death would reduce to 0.59% and 0.52%, respectively. If the control targets of all included risk factors were achieved by 2030, a total of 0.53 million deaths would be averted, and the probability of premature death would decrease to 0.44%. Conclusions: If the exposures to risk factors continued as showed from 1990 to 2015, the number of deaths and mortality for COPD would increase by 2030 compared to 2015, and the standardized mortality and the probability of premature death would decrease significantly, which would achieve the targets of preventing and controlling COPD. If the exposure to the included risk factors all achieved the targets by 2030, the burden of COPD would be reduced, suggesting that the control of tobacco use and air pollution should be enhanced to prevent and control COPD.

[Prediction of disease burden caused by malignant cancer in the context of risk factor control in China, 2030].

Objective: To predict the number of deaths, standardized mortality and probability of premature mortality caused by malignant cancer in the context of risk factor control at different levels in China in 2030, and assess the possibility of achieving the target of reducing the probability of premature mortality of malignant cancer. Methods: According to the risk factor control standard for malignant cancer used both at home and abroad, the results of China from Global Burden of Disease Study 2015 were used to calculate the population attributable fraction of the risk factors. Based on the comparative risk assessment theory, the deaths of malignant cancer were classified as attributable deaths and un-attributable deaths. Proportional change model was used to predict risk factor exposure and un-attributable deaths of malignant cancer in the future, then the number of deaths, standardized mortality rate and probability of premature mortality of malignant cancer in 2030 was estimated. Data analyses were performed by using software R 3.6.1. Results: If the risk factor exposure level during 1990-2015 remains, the number of deaths, standardized mortality rate, and probability of premature mortality of malignant cancer would increase to 3.62 million, 153.96/100 000 and 8.92% by 2030, respectively. If the risk factor exposure control level meets the requirement, the probability of premature mortality from cancer in people aged 30-70 years would drop to 7.57% by 2030. Conclusions: The control of risk factor exposure will play an important role in reducing deaths, standardized mortality rate and probability of premature mortality of malignant cancer. But more efforts are needed to achieve the goals of Health China Action.

[Association between physical activity and risk of stroke among adults aged 40 years and above: a prospective cohort study].

Objective: To examine the effect of physical activity (PA) on the incident risk of stroke among adults aged 40 years and above. Methods: The baseline data including PA and demographic characteristics were obtained from the Adult Chronic Disease Surveillance with population representativeness in Ningbo in 2015. The follow-up data of interested health outcomes from 2015 to 2019 were retrieved from a population-based Integrated Noncommunicable Disease Collaborative Management System in Ningbo. The two databases were matched to form a queue. PA was divided into three levels of low-intensity, moderate-intensity, and vigorous-intensity according to the metabolic equivalents (METs) spent per week. Cox regression model was used to calculate the hazard ratio (HR) and 95% confidence interval. Results: A total of 3 353 subjects were included at baseline survey in 2015. Until Dec 31, 2019, there had been 31 stroke events had occurred since then, with accumulative incidence rate of 242/100 000, and an average follow-up time of (50.28±2.54) months. When adjusted for gender, age, education level, smoking status, alcohol consumption, BMI and hypertension, multivariate Cox regression analysis showed that greater PA was associated with a 37.9% reduction of incidence of stroke (HR=0.621,95%CI:0.393-0.983). Compared with those who had low-intensity PA, those who were with vigorous-intensity. PA appeared associated with a 63.1% decrease in the incidence of stroke (HR=0.369, 95%CI: 0.139-0.976). However, there was no statistical significance with moderate-intensity PA (HR=0.712,95%CI:0.323-1.569), noticed. Conclusions: Greater PA is likely to reduce the incidence of stroke. Our findings indicated that people should be encouraged to increase the PA level and developing a healthy supportive environment in the community.

[Efficacy and safety of paclitaxel liposomes compared to paclitaxel combined with platinum in concurrent chemoradiotherapy for unresectable cervical carcinoma: a Meta-analysis].

Objective: To explore the efficacy and safety of paclitaxel liposomes compared to paclitaxel with platinum in concurrent chemoradiotherapy for unresectable cervical carcinoma. Methods: SinoMed, CNKI, WanFang MED ONLINE, VIP, PubMed, MEDLINE, Cochrane Library, Embase and ClinicalTrials.gov were searched to collect the papers or clinical studies of paclitaxel liposomes and paclitaxel combined with platinum in concurrent chemoradiotherapy for unresectable cervical carcinoma from the inception to January 15th 2021 in Chinese and English. Two independent reviewers screened the literatures, extracted the data and assessed the bias of the included studies. Meta-analysis was performed using RevMan 5.4 and R software. Results: Totally 9 papers involving 666 patients with unresectable cervical carcinoma were included. The results of meta-analysis indicated that compared to paclitaxel combined with platinum in concurrent chemoradiotherapy for unresectable cervical carcinoma, paclitaxel liposomes combined with platinum exhibited superiority in near-term efficacy (complete response + partial response) [81.4%(272/334) vs 68.7%(228/332), RR=1.19; 95% CI: 1.09, 1.29, P=0.000 1]; substantially decreased the incidence rates of blood system disorders [myelosuppressio, 50.3%(168/334)vs 65.1%(216/332)], gastrointestinal disorders [34.4%(115/334) vs 55.1%(183/332)], alopecia [42.2%(94/223)vs 63.3%(140/221)], allergic reaction [11.6% (23/198)vs 27.6%(54/196), P≤0.000 1], peripheral neuritis [43.0%(52/121) vs 54.9%(67/122)], or joint and muscle pain [20.3%(16/79) vs 34.6%(28/81), P<0.050 0]. Conclusion: Compared to paclitaxel combined with platinum in concurrent chemoradiotherapy for unresectable cervical carcinoma, paclitaxel liposomes is superior in near-term efficacy, and exhibits better safety.

[Trend on mortalities in all-cause and chronic non-communicable diseases among the labor force population in China, 2007-2016].

Objective: To analyze the trends on mortalities of all-cause and deaths caused by chronic and non-communicable diseases (NCDs) among Chinese labor force population during 2007 to 2016. Methods: Data on cause-of-death that collected from the National Mortality Surveillance System was used to analyze the age and area-related specific crude mortality rates, age-standardized mortality rates and component ratios of NCDs, among the Chinese labor force population, during 2007 to 2016. Trend of crude mortality rates and mortality component ratios of the three major diseases (infectious diseases, maternal and infant diseases, nutritional deficiency diseases; NCDs; injuries) were analyzed. Age-standardized mortality of cancer, COPD, cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases were also analyzed by gender. Age-standardized mortality was calculated based on the Year 2010 Population Census of China. Joinpoint regression model was used to obtain annual percentage change and 95%CI was set for assessing the trend. Results: In 2016, the age-standardized all-cause mortality rate was 217.23 per 100 000 among the Chinese labor force population, but decreased by -2.8% (95%CI: -3.8%- -1.7%) annually from 2007 to 2016. The gap between different gender and regions gradually narrowed. The proportion of deaths caused by NCDs increased annually by 0.8% (95%CI: 0.7%-0.9%). The age-standardized mortality rate of NCDs appeared as 171.89/100 000, among the Chinese labor force population in 2016, showing a downward trend by -2.4% (95%CI:-3.3% - -1.4%). However, in females, there appeared the greatest decrease, with an average annual change of -3.3% (95%CI:-4.0% - -2.5%). Diseases as cancer, COPD, cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases all showed downward trends in the whole country, with an average range of -2.0% (95%CI: -2.6%--1.3%), -8.0% (95%CI: -8.9% - -7.1%), -1.5% (95%CI: -2.9% - -0.1%), -2.3% (95%CI: -2.8% - -1.8%) in a ten-year period, respectively. Conclusion: All-cause and age-standardized mortality rates caused by NCDs among Chinese labor force population were decreasing during 2007 to 2016. However, the constituent ratios appeared increasing, year by year. Close attention needs to be paid on NCDs which affecting the health of the labor force population in China.

[Disease burden for gynecological disease in China, 2016].

Objective: To assess the disease burden for gynecological disease in China in 2016. Methods: Data were extracted from the global burden of disease study 2016 (GBD 2016) . The burden of gynecological disease among age groups and provinces groups was assessed by prevalence rate, mortality rate, years lived with disability (YLD) , years of life lost due to premature mortality (YLL) and disability-adjusted life years (DALY) . An average world population age-structure for the period 2010-2035 was adopted to calculate age-standardized rates. Results: In 2016, the prevalence rate of gynecological disease in women aged 15 years and above in China was 24.94%, of which was 36.71% to women of childbearing age. The number of DALY from gynecological disease was 2 727 637.82 life years in 2016, with the DALY rate was 411.12/100 000 and standardized DALY rate was 341.80/100 000. The first three gynecological diseases with highest DALY and DALY rate among Chinese women aged ≥15 years were premenstrual syndrome (815 004.64 life years, 122.84/100 000) , uterine fibroids (281 976.67 life years, 42.5/100 000) and endometriosis (154 792.89 life years, 23.33/100 000) . The DALY caused by gynecological disease in Guangdong (220 871.19 life years) , Shandong (190 968.72 life years) , Henan (171 273.92 life years) , Jiangsu (168 404.27 life years) and Sichuan (144 358.5 life years) were higher than other provinces. The standardized DALY rate attributable to gynecological disease were highest in Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region (404.00/100 000) , Shanghai (394.90/100 000) , Heilongjiang (382.00/100 000) , Beijing (365.70/100 000) and Jiangsu (357.50/100 000). Conclusions: Gynecological disease is a great threat to women's reproductive health. Effective measures should be taken to address the issue, especially to women of childbearing age.

[On National Demonstration Areas: a cluster analysis].

Objective: To understand the 'backward' provinces and the relatively poor work among the construction of National Demonstration Area, so as to promote communication and future visions among different regions. Methods: Methods on Cluster analysis were used to compare the development of National Demonstration Area in different provinces, including the coverage of National Demonstration Area and the scores of non-communicable disease (NCDs) prevention and control work based on a standardized indicating system. Results: According to the results from the construction of National Demonstration Area, all the 29 provinces and the Xinjiang Production and Construction Corps (except Tibet and Qinghai) were classified into 6 categories: Shanghai; Beijing, Zhejiang, Chongqing; Tianjin, Shandong, Guangdong and Xinjiang Production and Construction Corps; Hebei, Fujian, Hubei, Jiangsu, Liaoning, Xinjiang, Hunan and Guangxi; Shanxi, Jilin, Henan, Hainan,Sichuan, Anhui and Jiangxi; Inner Mongolia, Shaanxi, Ningxia, Guizhou, Yunnan, Gansu and Heilongjiang. Based on the scores gathered from this study, 24 items that representing the achievements from the NCDs prevention and control endeavor were classified into 4 categories: Manpower, special day on NCD, information materials development, policy/strategy support, financial support, mass media, enabled environment, community fitness campaign, health promotion for children and teenage, institutional structure and patient self-management; healthy diet, risk factors on NCDs surveillance, tobacco control and community diagnosis; intervention of high-risk groups, identification of high-risk groups, reporting system on cardiovascular and cerebrovascular events, popularization of basic public health service, workplace intervention programs, construction of demonstration units and mortality surveillance; oral hygiene and tumor registration. Contents including oral hygiene, tumor registration, intervention on high-risk groups, identification of high-risk population, reporting system on cardiovascular and cerebrovascular events, popularization of basic public health service, workplace intervention programs, construction of demonstration units and mortality surveillance were discerned as the relatively weak areas in the construction programs of National Demonstration Area. Conclusions: Western regions, especially in some remote provinces had the poorest performance during the construction of National Demonstration Area. Programs regarding chronic disease surveillance, identification and intervention on high-risk groups showed the lowest scores and these outcome-oriented tasks should be further focused on, during the next term of review, in these areas.

Determination of the binding affinity of different human papillomavirus E7 proteins for the tumour suppressor pRb by a plate-binding assay.

A plate-binding assay was developed to quantify the affinity of the E7 oncoprotein from different human papillomavirus (HPV) types for the tumour suppressor pRb. The method is highly reproducible, sensitive and easy to handle. It could be easily adapted for the quantitative study of other interacting proteins and for screenings of inhibitors of protein/protein interactions. The pRb-binding affinity of six different E7 proteins has been quantified. The K(D) values vary from approximately 4.5x10(-9) M for HPV16 E7 to more than 1x10(-7) M for HPV10 and HPV48 E7. Point mutation C24G in the high affinity pRb-binding domain of HPV16 E7 results in a 3-fold affinity reduction. The data indicate that the high affinity pRb-binding domain of E7, LXCXE, is essential for the association between the viral and cellular proteins. However, other E7 domain(s), which appear(s) not to be present in all E7s, contribute to stabilize the E7-pRb association.