Characteristics and outcomes of an international cohort of 600 000 hospitalized patients with COVID-19.

BACKGROUND: We describe demographic features, treatments and clinical outcomes in the International Severe Acute Respiratory and emerging Infection Consortium (ISARIC) COVID-19 cohort, one of the world's largest international, standardized data sets concerning hospitalized patients. METHODS: The data set analysed includes COVID-19 patients hospitalized between January 2020 and January 2022 in 52 countries. We investigated how symptoms on admission, co-morbidities, risk factors and treatments varied by age, sex and other characteristics. We used Cox regression models to investigate associations between demographics, symptoms, co-morbidities and other factors with risk of death, admission to an intensive care unit (ICU) and invasive mechanical ventilation (IMV). RESULTS: Data were available for 689 572 patients with laboratory-confirmed (91.1%) or clinically diagnosed (8.9%) SARS-CoV-2 infection from 52 countries. Age [adjusted hazard ratio per 10 years 1.49 (95% CI 1.48, 1.49)] and male sex [1.23 (1.21, 1.24)] were associated with a higher risk of death. Rates of admission to an ICU and use of IMV increased with age up to age 60 years then dropped. Symptoms, co-morbidities and treatments varied by age and had varied associations with clinical outcomes. The case-fatality ratio varied by country partly due to differences in the clinical characteristics of recruited patients and was on average 21.5%. CONCLUSIONS: Age was the strongest determinant of risk of death, with a ∼30-fold difference between the oldest and youngest groups; each of the co-morbidities included was associated with up to an almost 2-fold increase in risk. Smoking and obesity were also associated with a higher risk of death. The size of our international database and the standardized data collection method make this study a comprehensive international description of COVID-19 clinical features. Our findings may inform strategies that involve prioritization of patients hospitalized with COVID-19 who have a higher risk of death.

The J-IDEA Pandemic Planner: A Framework for Implementing Hospital Provision Interventions During the COVID-19 Pandemic.

BACKGROUND: Planning for extreme surges in demand for hospital care of patients requiring urgent life-saving treatment for coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), while retaining capacity for other emergency conditions, is one of the most challenging tasks faced by health care providers and policymakers during the pandemic. Health systems must be well-prepared to cope with large and sudden changes in demand by implementing interventions to ensure adequate access to care. We developed the first planning tool for the COVID-19 pandemic to account for how hospital provision interventions (such as cancelling elective surgery, setting up field hospitals, or hiring retired staff) will affect the capacity of hospitals to provide life-saving care. METHODS: We conducted a review of interventions implemented or considered in 12 European countries in March to April 2020, an evaluation of their impact on capacity, and a review of key parameters in the care of COVID-19 patients. This information was used to develop a planner capable of estimating the impact of specific interventions on doctors, nurses, beds, and respiratory support equipment. We applied this to a scenario-based case study of 1 intervention, the set-up of field hospitals in England, under varying levels of COVID-19 patients. RESULTS: The Abdul Latif Jameel Institute for Disease and Emergency Analytics pandemic planner is a hospital planning tool that allows hospital administrators, policymakers, and other decision-makers to calculate the amount of capacity in terms of beds, staff, and crucial medical equipment obtained by implementing the interventions. Flexible assumptions on baseline capacity, the number of hospitalizations, staff-to-beds ratios, and staff absences due to COVID-19 make the planner adaptable to multiple settings. The results of the case study show that while field hospitals alleviate the burden on the number of beds available, this intervention is futile unless the deficit of critical care nurses is addressed first. DISCUSSION: The tool supports decision-makers in delivering a fast and effective response to the pandemic. The unique contribution of the planner is that it allows users to compare the impact of interventions that change some or all inputs.

Suppression of a SARS-CoV-2 outbreak in the Italian municipality of Vo'.

On 21 February 2020, a resident of the municipality of Vo', a small town near Padua (Italy), died of pneumonia due to severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection1. This was the first coronavirus disease 19 (COVID-19)-related death detected in Italy since the detection of SARS-CoV-2 in the Chinese city of Wuhan, Hubei province2. In response, the regional authorities imposed the lockdown of the whole municipality for 14 days3. Here we collected information on the demography, clinical presentation, hospitalization, contact network and the presence of SARS-CoV-2 infection in nasopharyngeal swabs for 85.9% and 71.5% of the population of Vo' at two consecutive time points. From the first survey, which was conducted around the time the town lockdown started, we found a prevalence of infection of 2.6% (95% confidence interval (CI): 2.1-3.3%). From the second survey, which was conducted at the end of the lockdown, we found a prevalence of 1.2% (95% CI: 0.8-1.8%). Notably, 42.5% (95% CI: 31.5-54.6%) of the confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infections detected across the two surveys were asymptomatic (that is, did not have symptoms at the time of swab testing and did not develop symptoms afterwards). The mean serial interval was 7.2 days (95% CI: 5.9-9.6). We found no statistically significant difference in the viral load of symptomatic versus asymptomatic infections (P = 0.62 and 0.74 for E and RdRp genes, respectively, exact Wilcoxon-Mann-Whitney test). This study sheds light on the frequency of asymptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection, their infectivity (as measured by the viral load) and provides insights into its transmission dynamics and the efficacy of the implemented control measures.

A latent Markov modelling approach to the evaluation of circulating cathodic antigen strips for schistosomiasis diagnosis pre- and post-praziquantel treatment in Uganda.

Regular treatment with praziquantel (PZQ) is the strategy for human schistosomiasis control aiming to prevent morbidity in later life. With the recent resolution on schistosomiasis elimination by the 65th World Health Assembly, appropriate diagnostic tools to inform interventions are keys to their success. We present a discrete Markov chains modelling framework that deals with the longitudinal study design and the measurement error in the diagnostic methods under study. A longitudinal detailed dataset from Uganda, in which one or two doses of PZQ treatment were provided, was analyzed through Latent Markov Models (LMMs). The aim was to evaluate the diagnostic accuracy of Circulating Cathodic Antigen (CCA) and of double Kato-Katz (KK) faecal slides over three consecutive days for Schistosoma mansoni infection simultaneously by age group at baseline and at two follow-up times post treatment. Diagnostic test sensitivities and specificities and the true underlying infection prevalence over time as well as the probabilities of transitions between infected and uninfected states are provided. The estimated transition probability matrices provide parsimonious yet important insights into the re-infection and cure rates in the two age groups. We show that the CCA diagnostic performance remained constant after PZQ treatment and that this test was overall more sensitive but less specific than single-day double KK for the diagnosis of S. mansoni infection. The probability of clearing infection from baseline to 9 weeks was higher among those who received two PZQ doses compared to one PZQ dose for both age groups, with much higher re-infection rates among children compared to adolescents and adults. We recommend LMMs as a useful methodology for monitoring and evaluation and treatment decision research as well as CCA for mapping surveys of S. mansoni infection, although additional diagnostic tools should be incorporated in schistosomiasis elimination programs.

Low diversity Cryptococcus neoformans variety grubii multilocus sequence types from Thailand are consistent with an ancestral African origin.

The global burden of HIV-associated cryptococcal meningitis is estimated at nearly one million cases per year, causing up to a third of all AIDS-related deaths. Molecular epidemiology constitutes the main methodology for understanding the factors underpinning the emergence of this understudied, yet increasingly important, group of pathogenic fungi. Cryptococcus species are notable in the degree that virulence differs amongst lineages, and highly-virulent emerging lineages are changing patterns of human disease both temporally and spatially. Cryptococcus neoformans variety grubii (Cng, serotype A) constitutes the most ubiquitous cause of cryptococcal meningitis worldwide, however patterns of molecular diversity are understudied across some regions experiencing significant burdens of disease. We compared 183 clinical and environmental isolates of Cng from one such region, Thailand, Southeast Asia, against a global MLST database of 77 Cng isolates. Population genetic analyses showed that Thailand isolates from 11 provinces were highly homogenous, consisting of the same genetic background (globally known as VNI) and exhibiting only ten nearly identical sequence types (STs), with three (STs 44, 45 and 46) dominating our sample. This population contains significantly less diversity when compared against the global population of Cng, specifically Africa. Genetic diversity in Cng was significantly subdivided at the continental level with nearly half (47%) of the global STs unique to a genetically diverse and recombining population in Botswana. These patterns of diversity, when combined with evidence from haplotypic networks and coalescent analyses of global populations, are highly suggestive of an expansion of the Cng VNI clade out of Africa, leading to a limited number of genotypes founding the Asian populations. Divergence time testing estimates the time to the most common ancestor between the African and Asian populations to be 6,920 years ago (95% HPD 122.96 - 27,177.76). Further high-density sampling of global Cng STs is now necessary to resolve the temporal sequence underlying the global emergence of this human pathogen.

The impact of single versus mixed schistosome species infections on liver, spleen and bladder morbidity within Malian children pre- and post-praziquantel treatment.

BACKGROUND: In the developing world co-infections and polyparasitism within humans appear to be the rule rather than the exception, be it any combination of inter-specific and/or inter- and intra-Genera mixed infections. Mixed infections might generate synergistic or antagonistic interactions and thereby clinically affect individuals and/or impact parasite epidemiology. METHODS: The current study uniquely assesses both Schistosoma mansoni- and Schistosoma haematobium-related morbidity of the liver and the bladder as assessed by ultrasound as well as spleen and liver morbidity through clinical exams. The impact of praziquantel (PZQ) treatment on such potential inter-specific schistosome interactions and resulting morbidity using uniquely detailed longitudinal data (pre- and one year post-PZQ treatment) arising from the National Schistosomiasis Control Program in three areas of Mali: Ségou, Koulikoro and Bamako, is also evaluated. At baseline, data were collected from up to 2196 children (aged 7-14 years), 844 of which were infected with S. haematobium only, 124 with S. mansoni only and 477 with both. Follow-up data were collected from up to 1265 children. RESULTS: Results suggested lower liver morbidity in mixed compared to single S. mansoni infections and higher bladder morbidity in mixed compared to single S. haematobium infections. Single S. haematobium or S. mansoni infections were also associated with liver and spleen morbidity whilst only single S. haematobium infections were associated with bladder morbidity in these children (light S. haematobium infection OR: 4.3, p < 0.001 and heavy S. haematobium infection OR: 19, p < 0.001). PZQ treatment contributed to the regression of some of the forms of such morbidities. CONCLUSIONS: Whilst the precise biological mechanisms for these observations remain to be ascertained, the results illustrate the importance of considering mixed species infections in any analyses of parasite-induced morbidity, including that for the proposed Disability Adjusted Life Years (DALYs) revised estimates of schistosomiasis morbidity.

Schistosoma haematobium infection and morbidity before and after large-scale administration of praziquantel in Burkina Faso.

BACKGROUND: In sub-Saharan Africa, 112 million people are infected with Schistosoma haematobium, with the most intense infections in children 5-15 years old. METHODS: We describe a longitudinal epidemiological study that evaluates the relationship between S. haematobium infection and associated morbidity in children before and after the large-scale administration of praziquantel for schistosomiasis and albendazole for soil-transmitted helminths. RESULTS: At baseline, higher intensities of S. haematobium infection were observed in children with anemia and/or severe microhematuria, but there was no apparent association between the risk of undernutrition and intensity of S. haematobium infection. Significant reductions in the prevalence and intensity of S. haematobium infection 1 year after treatment were, however, observed. Children who benefited the most from anthelmintic treatment in terms of increased hemoglobin concentrations were those who had anemia at baseline and those with highly positive microhematuria scores at baseline. CONCLUSIONS: This study suggests that even a single round of mass chemotherapy can have a substantial impact on S. haematobium infection and its associated morbidity in children.

Comparison of the risks of atherosclerotic events versus death from other causes associated with antiretroviral use.

BACKGROUND: Studies considering the risk of atherosclerotic disease (AtD) associated with the use of HAART have reported inconsistent results. METHODS: Data on antiretroviral therapy (ART) use, risk factors for cardiovascular disease (CVD), AtD and death from other causes in 18 603 HIV-infected patients from two established cohorts were evaluated. The relative hazards of AtD and death from other causes were calculated using a proportional hazards competing risks framework. The impact of protease inhibitor (PI)-containing, non-nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitor (NNRTI)-containing or PI + NNRTI-containing regimens on these outcomes were compared to nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitor (NRTI)-only regimens or stopping therapy, adjusting for known CVD risk factors. RESULTS: In 77 480 person-years of follow-up (median duration 3.49 years) there were 318 AtD events including 92 myocardial infarctions and 2044 deaths. Older age, hypertension, diabetes mellitus, having smoked and HIV disease stage were significantly associated with increased risk of AtD. PI- and NNRTI-containing regimens significantly reduced the joint risk of either AtD or death from other causes compared to NRTI-only or stopping therapy [hazard ratio (HR) for PI-containing ART, 0.76, 95% confidence interval (CI), 0.73-0.78, P< 0.001; NNRTI-containing ART, 0.69, 95% CI, 0.65-0.74; P< 0.001). PI-containing ART was associated with a borderline significant increased risk of myocardial infarction (cause-specific HR for PI-containing ART 1.19, 95% CI, 1.01-1.40, P = 0.04) but not with increased risk of AtD compared to NRTI-only regimens or stopping therapy (cause-specific HR for PI-containing ART, 1.03, 95% CI, 0.95-1.13, P = 0.44). CONCLUSIONS: Overall benefits of PI- and NNRTI-based ART in reducing mortality significantly outweigh any risks of AtD in the "short-term" follow-up of this study. Traditional cardiac risk factors play an important role in determining AtD risk status.

Morbidity indicators of Schistosoma mansoni: relationship between infection and anemia in Ugandan schoolchildren before and after praziquantel and albendazole chemotherapy.

The potential relationship between Schistosoma mansoni and anemia was examined using data obtained by the Schistosomiasis Control Initiative (SCI) before (baseline) and 1 year after (follow-up) a chemotherapeutic treatment program in Uganda. Changes in hemoglobin (Hb) levels in 2,788 children in relation to their schistosomiasis and/or hookworm infection intensity category and baseline anemia status were analyzed. At baseline, significant predictors of childhood anemia were intensities of S. mansoni and hookworm infection. At follow-up, moderate or heavy hookworm as well as heavy S. mansoni infections were important. Children heavily infected with S. mansoni or hookworm had significantly lower Hb counts at baseline compared with those not infected. Among anemic children at the baseline survey, a significant increase in Hb counts of 0.834 g/dL after treatment was found. Our results suggest that anemia is associated with schistosomiasis and hookworm in Ugandan children and that such anemia shows a significant improvement after chemotherapy.

Creating and validating an algorithm to measure AIDS mortality in the adult population using verbal autopsy.

BACKGROUND: Vital registration and cause of death reporting is incomplete in the countries in which the HIV epidemic is most severe. A reliable tool that is independent of HIV status is needed for measuring the frequency of AIDS deaths and ultimately the impact of antiretroviral therapy on mortality. METHODS AND FINDINGS: A verbal autopsy questionnaire was administered to caregivers of 381 adults of known HIV status who died between 1998 and 2003 in Manicaland, eastern Zimbabwe. Individuals who were HIV positive and did not die in an accident or during childbirth (74%; n = 282) were considered to have died of AIDS in the gold standard. Verbal autopsies were randomly allocated to a training dataset (n = 279) to generate classification criteria or a test dataset (n = 102) to verify criteria. A rule-based algorithm created to minimise false positives had a specificity of 66% and a sensitivity of 76%. Eight predictors (weight loss, wasting, jaundice, herpes zoster, presence of abscesses or sores, oral candidiasis, acute respiratory tract infections, and vaginal tumours) were included in the algorithm. In the test dataset of verbal autopsies, 69% of deaths were correctly classified as AIDS/non-AIDS, and it was not necessary to invoke a differential diagnosis of tuberculosis. Presence of any one of these criteria gave a post-test probability of AIDS death of 0.84. CONCLUSIONS: Analysis of verbal autopsy data in this rural Zimbabwean population revealed a distinct pattern of signs and symptoms associated with AIDS mortality. Using these signs and symptoms, demographic surveillance data on AIDS deaths may allow for the estimation of AIDS mortality and even HIV prevalence.