Prediction of postpartum hemorrhage in women with gestational hypertension or mild preeclampsia at term.

OBJECTIVE: To assess whether postpartum hemorrhage can be predicted in women with gestational hypertension or mild preeclampsia at term. DESIGN: A cohort study in which we used data from our multicentre randomized controlled trial (HYPITAT trial). SETTING: The study was conducted in 38 hospitals in the Netherlands between 2005 and 2008. POPULATION: Women with gestational hypertension or mild preeclampsia at term (n = 1132). METHODS: An antepartum model (model A) and an antepartum/intrapartum model (model B) were created using logistic regression. The predictive capacity of the models was assessed with receiver operating characteristic analysis and calibration. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE: Postpartum hemorrhage, defined as blood loss >1000 mL within 24 h after delivery. RESULTS: Postpartum hemorrhage occurred in 118 (10.4%) women. Maternal age (odds ratio 1.03), prepregnancy body mass index (odds ratio 0.96), and women with preeclampsia (odds ratio 1.5) were independent antepartum prognostic variables of postpartum hemorrhage. Intrapartum variables incorporated in the model were gestational age at delivery (odds ratio 1.2), duration of dilatation stage (odds ratio 1.1), and episiotomy (odds ratio 1.5). Model A and model B showed moderate discrimination, with areas under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.59 (95% confidence interval 0.53-0.64) and 0.64 (95% confidence interval 0.59-0.70), respectively. Calibration was moderate for model A (Hosmer-Lemeshow p = 0.26) but better for model B (Hosmer-Lemeshow p = 0.36). The rates of postpartum hemorrhage ranged from 4% (lowest 10%) to 22% (highest 10%). CONCLUSION: In the assessment of performance of a prediction model, calibration is more important than discriminative capacity. Our prediction model shows that for women with gestational hypertension or mild preeclampsia at term, distinction between low and high risk of developing postpartum hemorrhage is possible when antepartum and intrapartum variables are combined.

SIMPLE: implementation of recommendations from international evidence-based guidelines on caesarean sections in the Netherlands. Protocol for a controlled before and after study.

BACKGROUND: Caesarean section (CS) rates are rising worldwide. In the Netherlands, the most significant rise is observed in healthy women with a singleton in vertex position between 37 and 42 weeks gestation, whereas it is doubtful whether an improved outcome for the mother or her child was obtained. It can be hypothesized that evidence-based guidelines on CS are not implemented sufficiently. Therefore, the present study has the following objectives: to develop quality indicators on the decision to perform a CS based on key recommendations from national and international guidelines; to use the quality indicators in order to gain insight into actual adherence of Dutch gynaecologists to guideline recommendations on the performance of a CS; to explore barriers and facilitators that have a direct effect on guideline application regarding CS; and to develop, execute, and evaluate a strategy in order to reduce the CS incidence for a similar neonatal outcome (based on the information gathered in the second and third objectives). METHODS: An independent expert panel of Dutch gynaecologists and midwives will develop a set of quality indicators on the decision to perform a CS. These indicators will be used to measure current care in 20 hospitals with a population of 1,000 women who delivered by CS, and a random selection of 1,000 women who delivered vaginally in the same period. Furthermore, by interviewing healthcare professionals and patients, the barriers and facilitators that may influence the decision to perform a CS will be measured. Based on the results, a tailor-made implementation strategy will be developed and tested in a controlled before-and-after study in 12 hospitals (six intervention, six control hospitals) with regard to effectiveness, experiences, and costs. DISCUSSION: This study will offer insight into the current CS care and into the hindering and facilitating factors influencing obstetrical policy on CS. Furthermore, it will allow definition of patient categories or situations in which a tailor-made implementation strategy will most likely be meaningful and cost effective, without negatively affecting the outcome for mother and child. TRIAL REGISTRATION: http://www.clinicaltrials.gov: NCT01261676.