Bayesian approach to assessing population differences in genetic risk of disease with application to prostate cancer.

Population differences in risk of disease are common, but the potential genetic basis for these differences is not well understood. A standard approach is to compare genetic risk across populations by testing for mean differences in polygenic scores, but existing studies that use this approach do not account for statistical noise in effect estimates (i.e., the GWAS betas) that arise due to the finite sample size of GWAS training data. Here, we show using Bayesian polygenic score methods that the level of uncertainty in estimates of genetic risk differences across populations is highly dependent on the GWAS training sample size, the polygenicity (number of causal variants), and genetic distance (FST) between the populations considered. We derive a Wald test for formally assessing the difference in genetic risk across populations, which we show to have calibrated type 1 error rates under a simplified assumption that all SNPs are independent, which we achieve in practise using linkage disequilibrium (LD) pruning. We further provide closed-form expressions for assessing the uncertainty in estimates of relative genetic risk across populations under the special case of an infinitesimal genetic architecture. We suggest that for many complex traits and diseases, particularly those with more polygenic architectures, current GWAS sample sizes are insufficient to detect moderate differences in genetic risk across populations, though more substantial differences in relative genetic risk (relative risk > 1.5) can be detected. We show that conventional approaches that do not account for sampling error from the training sample, such as using a simple t-test, have very high type 1 error rates. When applying our approach to prostate cancer, we demonstrate a higher genetic risk in African Ancestry men, with lower risk in men of European followed by East Asian ancestry.

Body mass index stratified meta-analysis of genome-wide association studies of polycystic ovary syndrome in women of European ancestry.

BACKGROUND: Polycystic ovary syndrome (PCOS) is a complex multifactorial disorder with a substantial genetic component. However, the clinical manifestations of PCOS are heterogeneous with notable differences between lean and obese women, implying a different pathophysiology manifesting in differential body mass index (BMI). We performed a meta-analysis of genome-wide association study (GWAS) data from six well-characterised cohorts, using a case-control study design stratified by BMI, aiming to identify genetic variants associated with lean and overweight/obese PCOS subtypes. RESULTS: The study comprised 254,588 women (5,937 cases and 248,651 controls) from individual studies performed in Australia, Estonia, Finland, the Netherlands and United States of America, and separated according to three BMI stratifications (lean, overweight and obese). Genome-wide association analyses were performed for each stratification within each cohort, with the data for each BMI group meta-analysed using METAL software. Almost half of the total study population (47%, n = 119,584) were of lean BMI (≤ 25 kg/m2). Two genome-wide significant loci were identified for lean PCOS, led by rs12000707 within DENND1A (P = 1.55 × 10-12) and rs2228260 within XBP1 (P = 3.68 × 10-8). One additional locus, LINC02905, was highlighted as significantly associated with lean PCOS through gene-based analyses (P = 1.76 × 10-6). There were no significant loci observed for the overweight or obese sub-strata when analysed separately, however, when these strata were combined, an association signal led by rs569675099 within DENND1A reached genome-wide significance (P = 3.22 × 10-9) and a gene-based association was identified with ERBB4 (P = 1.59 × 10-6). Nineteen of 28 signals identified in previous GWAS, were replicated with consistent allelic effect in the lean stratum. There were less replicated signals in the overweight and obese groups, and only 4 SNPs were replicated in each of the three BMI strata. CONCLUSIONS: Genetic variation at the XBP1, LINC02905 and ERBB4 loci were associated with PCOS within unique BMI strata, while DENND1A demonstrated associations across multiple strata, providing evidence of both distinct and shared genetic features between lean and overweight/obese PCOS-affected women. This study demonstrated that PCOS-affected women with contrasting body weight are not only phenotypically distinct but also show variation in genetic architecture; lean PCOS women typically display elevated gonadotrophin ratios, lower insulin resistance, higher androgen levels, including adrenal androgens, and more favourable lipid profiles. Overall, these findings add to the growing body of evidence supporting a genetic basis for PCOS as well as differences in genetic patterns relevant to PCOS BMI-subtype.

Examining intergenerational risk factors for conduct problems using polygenic scores in the Norwegian Mother, Father and Child Cohort Study.

The aetiology of conduct problems involves a combination of genetic and environmental factors, many of which are inherently linked to parental characteristics given parents' central role in children's lives across development. It is important to disentangle to what extent links between parental heritable characteristics and children's behaviour are due to transmission of genetic risk or due to parental indirect genetic influences via the environment (i.e., genetic nurture). We used 31,290 genotyped mother-father-child trios from the Norwegian Mother, Father and Child Cohort Study (MoBa), testing genetic transmission and genetic nurture effects on conduct problems using 13 polygenic scores (PGS) spanning psychiatric conditions, substance use, education-related factors, and other risk factors. Maternal or self-reports of conduct problems at ages 8 and 14 years were available for up to 15,477 children. We found significant genetic transmission effects on conduct problems for 12 out of 13 PGS at age 8 years (strongest association: PGS for smoking, ß = 0.07, 95% confidence interval = [0.05, 0.08]) and for 4 out of 13 PGS at age 14 years (strongest association: PGS for externalising problems, ß = 0.08, 95% confidence interval = [0.05, 0.11]). Conversely, we did not find genetic nurture effects for conduct problems using our selection of PGS. Our findings provide evidence for genetic transmission in the association between parental characteristics and child conduct problems. Our results may also indicate that genetic nurture via traits indexed by our polygenic scores is of limited aetiological importance for conduct problems-though effects of small magnitude or effects via parental traits not captured by the included PGS remain a possibility.

Genome-wide association study of thyroid-stimulating hormone highlights new genes, pathways and associations with thyroid disease.

Thyroid hormones play a critical role in regulation of multiple physiological functions and thyroid dysfunction is associated with substantial morbidity. Here, we use electronic health records to undertake a genome-wide association study of thyroid-stimulating hormone (TSH) levels, with a total sample size of 247,107. We identify 158 novel genetic associations, more than doubling the number of known associations with TSH, and implicate 112 putative causal genes, of which 76 are not previously implicated. A polygenic score for TSH is associated with TSH levels in African, South Asian, East Asian, Middle Eastern and admixed American ancestries, and associated with hypothyroidism and other thyroid disease in South Asians. In Europeans, the TSH polygenic score is associated with thyroid disease, including thyroid cancer and age-of-onset of hypothyroidism and hyperthyroidism. We develop pathway-specific genetic risk scores for TSH levels and use these in phenome-wide association studies to identify potential consequences of pathway perturbation. Together, these findings demonstrate the potential utility of genetic associations to inform future therapeutics and risk prediction for thyroid diseases.

Reassessing the association of MUC5B with survival in idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis.

A variant in the mucin 5B gene (MUC5B) is strongly associated with the risk of idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis. However, the same variant is associated with increased survival time. Previous work suggested that this may be explained by index event bias, with the true effect being to decrease survival. Here, we reassessed this claim using more recent methods and datasets. We found that the statistical assumptions of the previous analysis did not hold, and instead, we applied recent methods of corrected weighted least squares, MR-RAPS and Slope-hunter to both the previous data and an updated consortium meta-analysis. However, these analyses did not yield robust evidence for increased or decreased survival. In simulations of a true effect of decreased survival, we did not observe any realistic scenario in which index event bias led to an observed effect of increased survival. We therefore regard as unsafe the claim that MUC5B has a true effect of decreased survival. Alternative explanations should be sought to explain the observed association with increased survival.

Family Matters: Germline Testing in Thoracic Cancers.

Most thoracic cancers arise via a series of stepwise somatic alterations driven by a well-defined carcinogen (ie, tobacco or asbestos for lung cancer and mesothelioma, respectively). A small proportion can emerge on a background of pathogenic germline variants (PGVs), which have the property of heritability. In general, PGVs may be initially suspected on the basis of the presence of specific clinical features. Such gene × environment interactions significantly increase the risk of developing lung cancer (1.5- to 3.2-fold). PGVs have been discovered involving the actionable driver oncogene, epidermal growth factor receptor (EGFR), with an EGFR T790M PGV rate of 0.3%-0.9% in the nonsquamous non-small-cell lung cancer subtype. Its appearance during routine somatic DNA sequencing in those patients who have not had a previous tyrosine kinase inhibitor should raise suspicion. In patients with sporadic mesothelioma, BAP1 is the most frequently mutated tumor driver, with a PGV rate between 2.8% and 8%, associated with a favorable prognosis. BAP1 PGVs accelerate mesothelioma tumorigenesis after asbestos exposure in preclinical models and may be partly predicted by clinical criteria. At present, routine germline genetic testing for thoracic cancers is not a standard practice. Expert genetic counseling is, therefore, required for patients who carry a PGV. Ongoing studies aim to better understand the natural history of patients harboring PGVs to underpin future cancer prevention, precise counseling, and cancer management with the goal of improving the quality and length of life.

Adjusting for collider bias in genetic association studies using instrumental variable methods.

Genome-wide association studies have provided many genetic markers that can be used as instrumental variables to adjust for confounding in epidemiological studies. Recently, the principle has been applied to other forms of bias in observational studies, especially collider bias that arises when conditioning or stratifying on a variable that is associated with the outcome of interest. An important case is in studies of disease progression and survival. Here, we clarify the links between the genetic instrumental variable methods proposed for this problem and the established methods of Mendelian randomisation developed to account for confounding. We highlight the critical importance of weak instrument bias in this context and describe a corrected weighted least-squares procedure as a simple approach to reduce this bias. We illustrate the range of available methods on two data examples. The first, waist-hip ratio adjusted for body-mass index, entails statistical adjustment for a quantitative trait. The second, smoking cessation, is a stratified analysis conditional on having initiated smoking. In both cases, we find little effect of collider bias on the primary association results, but this may propagate into more substantial effects on further analyses such as polygenic risk scoring and Mendelian randomisation.

Applying Mendelian randomization to appraise causality in relationships between nutrition and cancer.

Dietary factors are assumed to play an important role in cancer risk, apparent in consensus recommendations for cancer prevention that promote nutritional changes. However, the evidence in this field has been generated predominantly through observational studies, which may result in biased effect estimates because of confounding, exposure misclassification, and reverse causality. With major geographical differences and rapid changes in cancer incidence over time, it is crucial to establish which of the observational associations reflect causality and to identify novel risk factors as these may be modified to prevent the onset of cancer and reduce its progression. Mendelian randomization (MR) uses the special properties of germline genetic variation to strengthen causal inference regarding potentially modifiable exposures and disease risk. MR can be implemented through instrumental variable (IV) analysis and, when robustly performed, is generally less prone to confounding, reverse causation and measurement error than conventional observational methods and has different sources of bias (discussed in detail below). It is increasingly used to facilitate causal inference in epidemiology and provides an opportunity to explore the effects of nutritional exposures on cancer incidence and progression in a cost-effective and timely manner. Here, we introduce the concept of MR and discuss its current application in understanding the impact of nutritional factors (e.g., any measure of diet and nutritional intake, circulating biomarkers, patterns, preference or behaviour) on cancer aetiology and, thus, opportunities for MR to contribute to the development of nutritional recommendations and policies for cancer prevention. We provide applied examples of MR studies examining the role of nutritional factors in cancer to illustrate how this method can be used to help prioritise or deprioritise the evaluation of specific nutritional factors as intervention targets in randomised controlled trials. We describe possible biases when using MR, and methodological developments aimed at investigating and potentially overcoming these biases when present. Lastly, we consider the use of MR in identifying causally relevant nutritional risk factors for various cancers in different regions across the world, given notable geographical differences in some cancers. We also discuss how MR results could be translated into further research and policy. We conclude that findings from MR studies, which corroborate those from other well-conducted studies with different and orthogonal biases, are poised to substantially improve our understanding of nutritional influences on cancer. For such corroboration, there is a requirement for an interdisciplinary and collaborative approach to investigate risk factors for cancer incidence and progression.

The WID-BC-index identifies women with primary poor prognostic breast cancer based on DNA methylation in cervical samples.

Genetic and non-genetic factors contribute to breast cancer development. An epigenome-based signature capturing these components in easily accessible samples could identify women at risk. Here, we analyse the DNA methylome in 2,818 cervical, 357 and 227 matched buccal and blood samples respectively, and 42 breast tissue samples from women with and without breast cancer. Utilising cervical liquid-based cytology samples, we develop the DNA methylation-based Women's risk IDentification for Breast Cancer index (WID-BC-index) that identifies women with breast cancer with an AUROC (Area Under the Receiver Operator Characteristic) of 0.84 (95% CI: 0.80-0.88) and 0.81 (95% CI: 0.76-0.86) in internal and external validation sets, respectively. CpGs at progesterone receptor binding sites hypomethylated in normal breast tissue of women with breast cancer or in BRCA mutation carriers are also hypomethylated in cervical samples of women with poor prognostic breast cancer. Our data indicate that a systemic epigenetic programming defect is highly prevalent in women who develop breast cancer. Further studies validating the WID-BC-index may enable clinical implementation for monitoring breast cancer risk.

A robust method for collider bias correction in conditional genome-wide association studies.

Estimated genetic associations with prognosis, or conditional on a phenotype (e.g. disease incidence), may be affected by collider bias, whereby conditioning on the phenotype induces associations between causes of the phenotype and prognosis. We propose a method, 'Slope-Hunter', that uses model-based clustering to identify and utilise the class of variants only affecting the phenotype to estimate the adjustment factor, assuming this class explains more variation in the phenotype than any other variant classes. Simulation studies show that our approach eliminates the bias and outperforms alternatives even in the presence of genetic correlation. In a study of fasting blood insulin levels (FI) conditional on body mass index, we eliminate paradoxical associations of the underweight loci: COBLLI; PPARG with increased FI, and reveal an association for the locus rs1421085 (FTO). In an analysis of a case-only study for breast cancer mortality, a single region remains associated with more pronounced results.

Interaction of Cigarette Smoking and Polygenic Risk Score on Reduced Lung Function.

Importance: The risk of airflow limitation and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) is influenced by combinations of cigarette smoking and genetic susceptibility, yet it remains unclear whether gene-by-smoking interactions are associated with quantitative measures of lung function. Objective: To assess the interaction of cigarette smoking and polygenic risk score in association with reduced lung function. Design, Setting, and Participants: This UK Biobank cohort study included UK citizens of European ancestry aged 40 to 69 years with genetic and spirometry data passing quality control metrics. Data was analyzed from July 2020 to March 2021. Exposures: PRS of combined forced expiratory volume in 1 second (FEV1) and percent of forced vital capacity exhaled in the first second (FEV1/FVC), self-reported pack-years of smoking, ever- vs never-smoking status, and current- vs former- or never-smoking status. Main Outcomes and Measures: FEV1/FVC was the primary outcome. Models were used to test for interactions with models, including the main effects of PRS, different smoking variables, and their cross-product terms. The association between pack-years of smoking and FEV1/FVC were compared for those in the highest vs lowest decile of estimated genetic risk for low lung function. Results: We included 319 730 individuals, of whom 24 915 (8%) had moderate-to-severe COPD cases, and 44.4% were men. Participants had a mean (SD) age 56.5 of (8.02) years. The PRS and pack-years were significantly associated with lower FEV1/FVC (PRS: ß, -0.03; 95% CI, -0.031 to -0.03; pack-years: ß, -0.0064; 95% CI, -0.0064 to -0.0063) and the interaction term (ß, -0.0028; 95% CI, -0.0029 to -0.0026). A stepwise increment in estimated effect sizes for these interaction terms was observed per 10 pack-years of smoking exposure. The interaction of PRS with 11 to 20, 31 to 40, and more than 50 pack-years categories were ß (interaction) -0.0038 (95% CI, -0.0046 to -0.0031); -0.013 (95% CI, -0.014 to -0.012); and -0.017 (95% CI, -0.019 to -0.016), respectively. There was evidence of significant interaction between PRS with ever- or never- smoking status (ß, interaction; -0.0064; 95% CI, -0.0068 to -0.0060) and current or not-current smoking (ß, interaction; -0.0091; 95% CI, -0.0097 to -0.0084). For any given level of pack-years of smoking exposure, FEV1/FVC was significantly lower for individuals in the tenth decile (ie, highest risk) than the first decile (ie, lowest risk) of genetic risk. For every 20 pack-years of smoking, those in the tenth decile compared with the first decile of genetic risk showed nearly a 2-fold reduction in FEV1/FVC. Conclusions and Relevance: COPD is characterized by diminished lung function, and our analyses suggest there is substantial interaction between genome-wide PRS and smoking exposures. While smoking was associated with decreased lung function across all genetic risk categories, the associations were strongest in individuals with higher estimated genetic risk.

Impact of past obstetric history and cervical excision on preterm birth rate.

INTRODUCTION: To determine the impact on preterm birth (PTB) of a history of large loop excision of the transformation zone (LLETZ)-alone compared with a history of previous preterm birth-alone (PPTB) or a history of both (LLETZ+PPTB). Secondary analyses were performed to evaluate the impact of antenatal interventions, depth of cervical excision, and patient risk factors on PTB rate in each cohort. MATERIAL AND METHODS: A retrospective observational cohort study of women referred to a tertiary Antenatal Prematurity Prevention Clinic with a history of LLETZ, PPTB, or LLETZ+PPTB. Information was collated from routinely collected clinical data on patient demographics, previous obstetric history, LLETZ dimensions, antenatal investigations/interventions, and gestation at delivery. RESULTS: A total of 1231 women with singleton pregnancies were included, 543 with history of LLETZ-alone, 607 with a history of PPTB-alone and 81 with a history of LLETZ+PPTB. PTB rates were 8.8% in the LLETZ-alone group, which mirrored the PTB rate in the local background obstetric population (8.9%) compared with 28.7% in the PPTB-alone and 37.0% in the LLETZ+PPTB cohorts. PTB rates were higher in LLETZ cohorts treated with antenatal intervention (cervical cerclage or progesterone pessary) and there was no evidence of an effect of intervention on risk of PTB in post-excision patients with identified shortened mid-trimester cervical length. Logistic regression modeling identified PPTB as a strong predictor of recurrent PTB. Excision depth was correlated with gestation at delivery in the LLETZ-alone group (r = -0.183, p < 0.01) although this only reached statistical significance at depths of 20 mm or more (odds ratio [OR] 3.40, 95% CI 1.04-1.11, p = 0.04). Depth of excision was not correlated with delivery gestation in the LLETZ+PPTB group (r = -0.031, p = 0.82). CONCLUSIONS: PPTB has a greater impact on subsequent PTB risk compared with depth of cervical excisional treatment. The value and nature of antenatal interventions should be investigated in the post-excision population.

Genome-wide analysis of thyroid function in Australian adolescents highlights SERPINA7 and NCOA3.

OBJECTIVE: Genetic factors underpin the narrow intraindividual variability of thyroid function, although precise contributions of environmental vs genetic factors remain uncertain. We sought to clarify the heritability of thyroid function traits and thyroid peroxidase antibody (TPOAb) positivity and identify single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) contributing to the trait variance. METHODS: Heritability of thyroid-stimulating hormone (TSH), free T4 (fT4), free T3 (fT3) and TPOAb in a cohort of 2854 euthyroid, dizygous and monozygous twins (age range 11.9-16.9 years) from the Brisbane Longitudinal Twin Study (BLTS) was assessed using structural equation modelling. A genome-wide analysis was conducted on 2832 of these individuals across 7 522 526 SNPs as well as gene-based association analyses. Replication analysis of the association results was performed in the Raine Study (n = 1115) followed by meta-analysis to maximise power for discovery. RESULTS: Heritability of thyroid function parameters in the BLTS was 70.8% (95% CI: 66.7-74.9%) for TSH, 67.5% (59.8-75.3%) for fT4, 59.7% (54.4-65.0%) for fT3 and 48.8% (40.6-56.9%) for TPOAb. The genome-wide association study (GWAS) in the discovery cohort identified a novel association between rs2026401 upstream of NCOA3 and TPOAb. GWAS meta-analysis found associations between TPOAb and rs445219, also near NCOA3, and fT3 and rs12687280 near SERPINA7. Gene-based association analysis highlighted SERPINA7 for fT3 and NPAS3 for fT4. CONCLUSION: Our findings resolve former contention regarding heritability estimates of thyroid function traits and TPOAb positivity. GWAS and gene-based association analysis identified variants accounting for a component of this heritability.

Mortality risk comparing walking pace to handgrip strength and a healthy lifestyle: A UK Biobank study.

AIMS: Brisk walking and a greater muscle strength have been associated with a longer life; whether these associations are influenced by other lifestyle behaviours, however, is less well known. METHODS: Information on usual walking pace (self-defined as slow, steady/average, or brisk), dynamometer-assessed handgrip strength, lifestyle behaviours (physical activity, TV viewing, diet, alcohol intake, sleep and smoking) and body mass index was collected at baseline in 450,888 UK Biobank study participants. We estimated 10-year standardised survival for individual and combined lifestyle behaviours and body mass index across levels of walking pace and handgrip strength. RESULTS: Over a median follow-up of 7.0 years, 3808 (1.6%) deaths in women and 6783 (3.2%) in men occurred. Brisk walkers had a survival advantage over slow walkers, irrespective of the degree of engagement in other lifestyle behaviours, except for smoking. Estimated 10-year survival was higher in brisk walkers who otherwise engaged in an unhealthy lifestyle compared to slow walkers who engaged in an otherwise healthy lifestyle: 97.1% (95% confidence interval: 96.9-97.3) vs 95.0% (94.6-95.4) in women; 94.8% (94.7-95.0) vs 93.7% (93.3-94.2) in men. Body mass index modified the association between walking pace and survival in men, with the largest survival benefits of brisk walking observed in underweight participants. Compared to walking pace, for handgrip strength there was more overlap in 10-year survival across lifestyle behaviours. CONCLUSION: Except for smoking, brisk walkers with an otherwise unhealthy lifestyle have a lower mortality risk than slow walkers with an otherwise healthy lifestyle.

Genetic overlap and causal associations between smoking behaviours and mental health.

Cigarette smoking is a modifiable behaviour associated with mental health. We investigated the degree of genetic overlap between smoking behaviours and psychiatric traits and disorders, and whether genetic associations exist beyond genetic influences shared with confounding variables (cannabis and alcohol use, risk-taking and insomnia). Second, we investigated the presence of causal associations between smoking initiation and psychiatric traits and disorders. We found significant genetic correlations between smoking and psychiatric disorders and adult psychotic experiences. When genetic influences on known covariates were controlled for, genetic associations between most smoking behaviours and schizophrenia and depression endured (but not with bipolar disorder or most psychotic experiences). Mendelian randomization results supported a causal role of smoking initiation on psychiatric disorders and adolescent cognitive and negative psychotic experiences, although not consistently across all sensitivity analyses. In conclusion, smoking and psychiatric disorders share genetic influences that cannot be attributed to covariates such as risk-taking, insomnia or other substance use. As such, there may be some common genetic pathways underlying smoking and psychiatric disorders. In addition, smoking may play a causal role in vulnerability for mental illness.

Clonal architecture in mesothelioma is prognostic and shapes the tumour microenvironment.

Malignant Pleural Mesothelioma (MPM) is typically diagnosed 20-50 years after exposure to asbestos and evolves along an unknown evolutionary trajectory. To elucidate this path, we conducted multi-regional exome sequencing of 90 tumour samples from 22 MPMs acquired at surgery. Here we show that exomic intratumour heterogeneity varies widely across the cohort. Phylogenetic tree topology ranges from linear to highly branched, reflecting a steep gradient of genomic instability. Using transfer learning, we detect repeated evolution, resolving 5 clusters that are prognostic, with temporally ordered clonal drivers. BAP1/-3p21 and FBXW7/-chr4 events are always early clonal. In contrast, NF2/-22q events, leading to Hippo pathway inactivation are predominantly late clonal, positively selected, and when subclonal, exhibit parallel evolution indicating an evolutionary constraint. Very late somatic alteration of NF2/22q occurred in one patient 12 years after surgery. Clonal architecture and evolutionary clusters dictate MPM inflammation and immune evasion. These results reveal potentially drugable evolutionary bottlenecking in MPM, and an impact of clonal architecture on shaping the immune landscape, with potential to dictate the clinical response to immune checkpoint inhibition.

Polygenic risk scores in cardiovascular risk prediction: A cohort study and modelling analyses.

BACKGROUND: Polygenic risk scores (PRSs) can stratify populations into cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk groups. We aimed to quantify the potential advantage of adding information on PRSs to conventional risk factors in the primary prevention of CVD. METHODS AND FINDINGS: Using data from UK Biobank on 306,654 individuals without a history of CVD and not on lipid-lowering treatments (mean age [SD]: 56.0 [8.0] years; females: 57%; median follow-up: 8.1 years), we calculated measures of risk discrimination and reclassification upon addition of PRSs to risk factors in a conventional risk prediction model (i.e., age, sex, systolic blood pressure, smoking status, history of diabetes, and total and high-density lipoprotein cholesterol). We then modelled the implications of initiating guideline-recommended statin therapy in a primary care setting using incidence rates from 2.1 million individuals from the Clinical Practice Research Datalink. The C-index, a measure of risk discrimination, was 0.710 (95% CI 0.703-0.717) for a CVD prediction model containing conventional risk predictors alone. Addition of information on PRSs increased the C-index by 0.012 (95% CI 0.009-0.015), and resulted in continuous net reclassification improvements of about 10% and 12% in cases and non-cases, respectively. If a PRS were assessed in the entire UK primary care population aged 40-75 years, assuming that statin therapy would be initiated in accordance with the UK National Institute for Health and Care Excellence guidelines (i.e., for persons with a predicted risk of ≥10% and for those with certain other risk factors, such as diabetes, irrespective of their 10-year predicted risk), then it could help prevent 1 additional CVD event for approximately every 5,750 individuals screened. By contrast, targeted assessment only among people at intermediate (i.e., 5% to <10%) 10-year CVD risk could help prevent 1 additional CVD event for approximately every 340 individuals screened. Such a targeted strategy could help prevent 7% more CVD events than conventional risk prediction alone. Potential gains afforded by assessment of PRSs on top of conventional risk factors would be about 1.5-fold greater than those provided by assessment of C-reactive protein, a plasma biomarker included in some risk prediction guidelines. Potential limitations of this study include its restriction to European ancestry participants and a lack of health economic evaluation. CONCLUSIONS: Our results suggest that addition of PRSs to conventional risk factors can modestly enhance prediction of first-onset CVD and could translate into population health benefits if used at scale.

Relative contributions of family history and a polygenic risk score on COPD and related outcomes: COPDGene and ECLIPSE studies.

INTRODUCTION: Family history is a risk factor for chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). We previously developed a COPD risk score from genome-wide genetic markers (Polygenic Risk Score, PRS). Whether the PRS and family history provide complementary or redundant information for predicting COPD and related outcomes is unknown. METHODS: We assessed the predictive capacity of family history and PRS on COPD and COPD-related outcomes in non-Hispanic white (NHW) and African American (AA) subjects from COPDGene and ECLIPSE studies. We also performed interaction and mediation analyses. RESULTS: In COPDGene, family history and PRS were significantly associated with COPD in a single model (PFamHx <0.0001; PPRS<0.0001). Similar trends were seen in ECLIPSE. The area under the receiver operator characteristic curve for a model containing family history and PRS was significantly higher than a model with PRS (p=0.00035) in NHWs and a model with family history (p<0.0001) alone in NHWs and AAs. Both family history and PRS were significantly associated with measures of quantitative emphysema and airway thickness. There was a weakly positive interaction between family history and the PRS under the additive, but not multiplicative scale in NHWs (relative excess risk due to interaction=0.48, p=0.04). Mediation analyses found that a significant proportion of the effect of family history on COPD was mediated through PRS in NHWs (16.5%, 95% CI 9.4% to 24.3%), but not AAs. CONCLUSION: Family history and the PRS provide complementary information for predicting COPD and related outcomes. Future studies can address the impact of obtaining both measures in clinical practice.