Treatment methods for cervical intraepithelial neoplasia in England: A cost-effectiveness analysis.

OBJECTIVE: To compare the cost-effectiveness of different treatments for cervical intraepithelial neoplasia (CIN). DESIGN: A cost-effectiveness analysis based on data available in the literature and expert opinion. SETTING: England. POPULATION: Women treated for CIN. METHODS: We developed a decision-analytic model to simulate the clinical course of 1000 women who received local treatment for CIN and were followed up for 10 years after treatment. In the model we considered surgical complications as well as oncological and reproductive outcomes over the 10-year period. The costs calculated were those incurred by the National Health Service (NHS) of England. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Cost per one CIN2+ recurrence averted (oncological outcome); cost per one preterm birth averted (reproductive outcome); overall cost per one adverse oncological or reproductive outcome averted. RESULTS: For young women of reproductive age, large loop excision of the transformation zone (LLETZ) was the most cost-effective treatment overall at all willingness-to-pay thresholds. For postmenopausal women, LLETZ remained the most cost-effective treatment up to a threshold of £31,500, but laser conisation became the most cost-effective treatment above that threshold. CONCLUSIONS: LLETZ is the most cost-effective treatment for both younger and older women. However, for older women, more radical excision with laser conisation could also be considered if the NHS is willing to spend more than £31,500 to avert one CIN2+ recurrence.

Imiquimod for Cervical and Vaginal Intraepithelial Neoplasia: A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis.

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the treatment efficacy and the risk of adverse events of imiquimod for cervical intraepithelial neoplasia (CIN) and vaginal intraepithelial neoplasia (VAIN), compared with placebo or no intervention. DATA SOURCES: We searched Cochrane, PubMed, ISRCTN registry, ClinicalTrials.gov , and the World Health Organization International Clinical Trials Registry Platform up to November 23, 2022. METHODS OF STUDY SELECTION: We included randomized controlled trials and prospective nonrandomized studies with control arms that investigated the efficacy of imiquimod for histologically confirmed CIN or VAIN. The primary outcomes were histologic regression of the disease (primary efficacy outcome) and treatment discontinuation due to side effects (primary safety outcome). We estimated pooled odds ratios (ORs) of imiquimod, compared with placebo or no intervention. We also conducted a meta-analysis of the proportions of patients with adverse events in the imiquimod arms. TABULATION, INTEGRATION, AND RESULTS: Four studies contributed to the pooled OR for the primary efficacy outcome. An additional four studies were available for meta-analyses of proportions in the imiquimod arm. Imiquimod was associated with increased probability of regression (pooled OR 4.05, 95% CI 2.08-7.89). Pooled OR for CIN in the three studies was 4.27 (95% CI 2.11-8.66); results of one study were available for VAIN (OR, 2.67, 95% CI 0.36-19.71). Pooled probability for primary safety outcome in the imiquimod arm was 0.07 (95% CI 0.03-0.14). The pooled probabilities (95% CI) of secondary outcomes were 0.51 (0.20-0.81) for fever, 0.53 (0.31-0.73) for arthralgia or myalgia, 0.31 (0.18-0.47) for abdominal pain, 0.28 (0.09-0.61) for abnormal vaginal discharge or genital bleeding, 0.48 (0.16-0.82) for vulvovaginal pain, and 0.02 (0.01-0.06) for vaginal ulceration. CONCLUSION: Imiquimod was found to be effective for CIN, whereas data on VAIN were limited. Although local and systemic complications are common, treatment discontinuation is infrequent. Thus, imiquimod is potentially an alternative therapy to surgery for CIN. SYSTEMATIC REVIEW REGISTRATION: PROSPERO, CRD42022377982.

Comparative effectiveness and risk of preterm birth of local treatments for cervical intraepithelial neoplasia and stage IA1 cervical cancer: a systematic review and network meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: The trade-off between comparative effectiveness and reproductive morbidity of different treatment methods for cervical intraepithelial neoplasia (CIN) remains unclear. We aimed to determine the risks of treatment failure and preterm birth associated with various treatment techniques. METHODS: In this systematic review and network meta-analysis, we searched MEDLINE, Embase, and the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials database for randomised and non-randomised studies reporting on oncological or reproductive outcomes after CIN treatments from database inception until March 9, 2022, without language restrictions. We included studies of women with CIN, glandular intraepithelial neoplasia, or stage IA1 cervical cancer treated with excision (cold knife conisation [CKC], laser conisation, and large loop excision of the transformation zone [LLETZ]) or ablation (radical diathermy, laser ablation, cold coagulation, and cryotherapy). We excluded women treated with hysterectomy. The primary outcomes were any treatment failure (defined as any abnormal histology or cytology) and preterm birth (<37 weeks of gestation). The network for preterm birth also included women with untreated CIN (untreated colposcopy group). The main reference group was LLETZ for treatment failure and the untreated colposcopy group for preterm birth. For randomised controlled trials, we extracted group-level summary data, and for observational studies, we extracted relative treatment effect estimates adjusted for potential confounders, when available, and we did random-effects network meta-analyses to obtain odds ratios (ORs) with 95% CIs. We assessed within-study and across-study risk of bias using Cochrane tools. This systematic review is registered with PROSPERO, CRD42018115495 and CRD42018115508. FINDINGS: 7880 potential citations were identified for the outcome of treatment failure and 4107 for the outcome of preterm birth. After screening and removal of duplicates, the network for treatment failure included 19 240 participants across 71 studies (25 randomised) and the network for preterm birth included 68 817 participants across 29 studies (two randomised). Compared with LLETZ, risk of treatment failure was reduced for other excisional methods (laser conisation: OR 0·59 [95% CI 0·44-0·79] and CKC: 0·63 [0·50-0·81]) and increased for laser ablation (1·69 [1·27-2·24]) and cryotherapy (1·84 [1·33-2·56]). No differences were found for the comparison of cold coagulation versus LLETZ (1·09 [0·68-1·74]) but direct data were based on two small studies only. Compared with the untreated colposcopy group, risk of preterm birth was increased for all excisional techniques (CKC: 2·27 [1·70-3·02]; laser conisation: 1·77 [1·29-2·43]; and LLETZ: 1·37 [1·16-1·62]), whereas no differences were found for ablative methods (laser ablation: 1·05 [0·78-1·41]; cryotherapy: 1·01 [0·35-2·92]; and cold coagulation: 0·67 [0·02-29·15]). The evidence was based mostly on observational studies with their inherent risks of bias, and the credibility of many comparisons was low. INTERPRETATION: More radical excisional techniques reduce the risk of treatment failure but increase the risk of subsequent preterm birth. Although there is uncertainty, ablative treatments probably do not increase risk of preterm birth, but are associated with higher failure rates than excisional techniques. Although we found LLETZ to have balanced effectiveness and reproductive morbidity, treatment choice should rely on a woman's age, size and location of lesion, and future family planning. FUNDING: National Institute for Health and Care Research: Research for Patient Benefit.

Bayesian models for aggregate and individual patient data component network meta-analysis.

Network meta-analysis can synthesize evidence from studies comparing multiple treatments for the same disease. Sometimes the treatments of a network are complex interventions, comprising several independent components in different combinations. A component network meta-analysis (CNMA) can be used to analyze such data and can in principle disentangle the individual effect of each component. However, components may interact with each other, either synergistically or antagonistically. Deciding which interactions, if any, to include in a CNMA model may be difficult, especially for large networks with many components. In this article, we present two Bayesian CNMA models that can be used to identify prominent interactions between components. Our models utilize Bayesian variable selection methods, namely the stochastic search variable selection and the Bayesian LASSO, and can benefit from the inclusion of prior information about important interactions. Moreover, we extend these models to combine data from studies providing aggregate information and studies providing individual patient data (IPD). We illustrate our models in practice using three real datasets, from studies in panic disorder, depression, and multiple myeloma. Finally, we describe methods for developing web-applications that can utilize results from an IPD-CNMA, to allow for personalized estimates of relative treatment effects given a patient's characteristics.

Hypofractionated radiotherapy for newly diagnosed elderly glioblastoma patients: A systematic review and network meta-analysis.

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate different hypofractionated radiotherapy (HRT) regimens for newly diagnosed elderly glioblastoma (GBM) patients. METHODS: We performed a systematic review with network meta-analysis (NMA), including searches on CENTRAL, Medline, EMBASE, CINAHL, clinical trial databases and manual search. Only randomized clinical trials (RCTs) were included. Primary outcomes: overall survival (OS) and adverse events (AE). Secondary outcomes: progression-free-survival (PFS) and quality of life (QoL). We used the Cochrane Risk of Bias (RoB) table for assessing individual studies and CINeMA for evaluating the certainty of the final body of evidence. RESULTS: Four RCTs (499 patients) were included. For OS, the estimates from NMA did not provide strong evidence of a difference between the HRTs: 40 Gray (Gy) versus 45 Gy (HR: 0.89; CI 95%: 0.42, 1.91); 34 Gy versus 45 Gy (HR: 0.85; CI 95% 0.43, 1.70); 25 Gy versus 45 Gy (HR: 0.81; CI 95% 0.32, 2.02); 34 Gy versus 40 Gy (HR: 0.95; CI 95% 0.57, 1.61); and 25 Gy versus 34 Gy (HR: 0.95; CI 95% 0.46, 1.97). We performed qualitative synthesis for AE and QoL due to data scarcity and clinical heterogeneity among studies. The four studies reported a similar QoL (assessed by different methods) between arms. One RCT reported grade ≥ 3 AE, with no evidence of a difference between arms. PFS was reported in one study (25 Gy versus 40 Gy), with no evidence of a difference between arms. CONCLUSION: This review found no evidence of a difference between the evaluated HRTs for efficacy and safety.

Immunodeficiency and Cancer in 3.5 Million People Living With Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV): The South African HIV Cancer Match Study.

BACKGROUND: We analyzed associations between immunodeficiency and cancer incidence in a nationwide cohort of people living with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV; PLWH) in South Africa. METHODS: We used data from the South African HIV Cancer Match Study built on HIV-related laboratory measurements from the National Health Laboratory Services and cancer records from the National Cancer Registry. We evaluated associations between time-updated CD4 cell count and cancer incidence rates using Cox proportional hazards models. We reported adjusted hazard ratios (aHRs) over a grid of CD4 values and estimated the aHR per 100 CD4 cells/µL decrease. RESULTS: Of 3 532 266 PLWH, 15 078 developed cancer. The most common cancers were cervical cancer (4150 cases), Kaposi sarcoma (2262 cases), and non-Hodgkin lymphoma (1060 cases). The association between lower CD4 cell count and higher cancer incidence rates was strongest for conjunctival cancer (aHR per 100 CD4 cells/µL decrease: 1.46; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.38-1.54), Kaposi sarcoma (aHR, 1.23; 95% CI, 1.20-1.26), and non-Hodgkin lymphoma (aHR, 1.18; 95% CI, 1.14-1.22). Among infection-unrelated cancers, lower CD4 cell counts were associated with higher incidence rates of esophageal cancer (aHR, 1.06; 95% CI, 1.00-1.11) but not breast, lung, or prostate cancer. CONCLUSIONS: Lower CD4 cell counts were associated with an increased risk of developing various infection-related cancers among PLWH. Reducing HIV-induced immunodeficiency may be a potent cancer-prevention strategy among PLWH in sub-Saharan Africa, a region heavily burdened by cancers attributable to infections.

The Comparative Efficacy of Chlorhexidine Gluconate and Povidone-iodine Antiseptics for the Prevention of Infection in Clean Surgery: A Systematic Review and Network Meta-analysis.

OBJECTIVE: There is uncertainty around preoperative skin antisepsis in clean surgery. Network meta-analysis provides more precise estimates than standard pairwise meta-analysis and can rank interventions by efficacy, to better inform clinical decisions. BACKGROUND: Infection is the most common and costly complication of surgery. The relative efficacy of CHG and PVI based skin antiseptics in clean surgery remains unclear. METHODS: We searched for randomized or nonrandomized studies comparing the effect of different preparations of CHG and PVI on the dichotomous outcome of surgical site infection. We included studies of adults undergoing clean surgery. We excluded studies concerning indwelling vascular catheters, blood sampling, combination antiseptics or sequential applications of different antiseptics. We performed a network meta-analysis to estimate the relative efficacy of interventions using relative risks (RR). RESULTS: We included 17 studies comparing 5 antiseptics in 14,593 individuals. The overall rate of surgical site infection was 3%. Alcoholic CHG 4%-5% was ranked as the most effective antiseptic as it halved the risk of surgical site infection when compared to aqueous PVI [RR 0.49 (95% confidence interval 0.24, 1.02)] and also to alcoholic PVI, although uncertainty was larger [RR 0.51 (95% confidence interval 0.21, 1.27)]. Adverse events related to antiseptic application were only observed with patients exposed to PVI. CONCLUSIONS: Alcoholic formulations of 4%-5% CHG seem to be safe and twice as effective as PVI (alcoholic or aqueous solutions) in preventing infection after clean surgery in adults. Our findings concur with the literature on contaminated and clean-contaminated surgery, and endorse guidelines worldwide which advocate the use of alcoholic CHG for preoperative skin antisepsis. REGISTRATION: PROSPERO ID CRD42018113001.

Comparative fertility and pregnancy outcomes after local treatment for cervical intraepithelial neoplasia and stage 1a1 cervical cancer: protocol for a systematic review and network meta-analysis from the CIRCLE group.

INTRODUCTION: There are several local treatment methods for cervical intraepithelial neoplasia that remove or ablate a cone-shaped part of the uterine cervix. There is evidence to suggest that these increase the risk of preterm birth (PTB) and that this is higher for techniques that remove larger parts of the cervix, although the data are conflicting. We present a protocol for a systematic review and network meta-analysis (NMA) that will update the evidence and compare all treatments in terms of fertility and pregnancy complications. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: We will search electronic databases (CENTRAL, MEDLINE, EMBASE) from inception till October 2019, in order to identify randomised controlled trials (RCTs) and cohort studies comparing the fertility and pregnancy outcomes among different excisional and ablative treatment techniques and/or to untreated controls. The primary outcome will be PTB (<37 weeks). Secondary outcomes will include severe or extreme PTB, prelabour rupture of membranes, low birth weight (<2500 g), neonatal intensive care unit admission, perinatal mortality, total pregnancy rates, first and second trimester miscarriage. We will search for published and unpublished studies in electronic databases, trial registries and we will hand-search references of published papers. We will assess the risk of bias in RCTs and cohort studies using tools developed by the Cochrane collaboration. Two investigators will independently assess the eligibility, abstract the data and assess the risk of bias of the identified studies. For each outcome, we will perform a meta-analysis for each treatment comparison and an NMA once the transitivity assumption holds, using the OR for dichotomous data. We will use CINeMA (Confidence in Network meta-analysis) to assess the quality of the evidence for the primary outcome. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: Ethical approval is not required. Results will be disseminated to academic beneficiaries, medical practitioners, patients and the public. PROSPERO REGISTRATION NUMBER: CRD42018115495.

Comparative efficacy and complication rates after local treatment for cervical intraepithelial neoplasia and stage 1a1 cervical cancer: protocol for a systematic review and network meta-analysis from the CIRCLE Group.

INTRODUCTION: Local treatments for cervical intraepithelial neoplasia (CIN) and microinvasive disease remove or ablate a cone-shaped part of the uterine cervix containing the abnormal cells. A trend toward less radical techniques has raised concerns that this may adversely impact the rates of precancerous and cancerous recurrence. However, there has been no strong evidence to support such claims. We hereby describe a protocol of a systematic review and network meta-analysis that will update the evidence and compare all relevant treatments in terms of efficacy and complications. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: Literature searches in electronic databases (CENTRAL, MEDLINE, EMBASE) or trial registries will identify published and unpublished randomised controlled trials (RCTs) and cohort studies comparing the efficacy and complications among different excisional and ablative techniques. The excisional techniques include cold knife, laser or Fischer cone, large loop or needle excision of the transformation zone and the ablative radical point diathermy, cryotherapy, cold coagulation or laser ablation. The primary outcome will be residual/recurrent disease defined as abnormal histology or cytology of any grade, while secondary outcomes will include treatment failure rates defined as high-grade histology or cytology, histologically confirmed CIN1+ or histologically confirmed CIN2+, human papillomavirus positivity rates, involved margins rates, bleeding and cervical stenosis rates. We will assess the risk of bias in RCTs and observational studies using tools developed by the Cochrane Collaboration. Two authors will independently assess study eligibility, abstract the data and assess the risk of bias. Random-effects meta-analyses and network meta-analyses will be conducted using the OR for dichotomous outcomes and the mean difference for continuous outcomes. The quality of the evidence for the primary outcome will be assessed using the CINeMA (Confidence In Network Meta-Analysis) tool. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: Ethical approval is not required. We will disseminate findings to clinicians, policy-makers, patients and the public. PROSPERO REGISTRATION NUMBER: CRD42018115508.

Prediction of Real-World Drug Effectiveness Prelaunch: Case Study in Rheumatoid Arthritis.

BACKGROUND: Decision makers often need to assess the real-world effectiveness of new drugs prelaunch, when phase II/III randomized controlled trials (RCTs) but no other data are available. OBJECTIVE: To develop a method to predict drug effectiveness prelaunch and to apply it in a case study in rheumatoid arthritis (RA). METHODS: The approach 1) identifies a market-approved treatment ( S) currently used in a target population similar to that of the new drug ( N); 2) quantifies the impact of treatment, prognostic factors, and effect modifiers on clinical outcome; 3) determines the characteristics of patients likely to receive N in routine care; and 4) predicts treatment outcome in simulated patients with these characteristics. Sources of evidence include expert opinion, RCTs, and observational studies. The framework relies on generalized linear models. RESULTS: The case study assessed the effectiveness of tocilizumab (TCZ), a biologic disease-modifying antirheumatic drug (DMARD), combined with conventional DMARDs, compared to conventional DMARDs alone. Rituximab (RTX) combined with conventional DMARDs was identified as treatment S. Individual participant data from 2 RCTs and 2 national registries were analyzed. The model predicted the 6-month changes in the Disease Activity Score 28 (DAS28) accurately: the mean change was -2.101 (standard deviation [SD] = 1.494) in the simulated patients receiving TCZ and conventional DMARDs compared to -1.873 (SD = 1.220) in retrospectively assessed observational data. It was -0.792 (SD = 1.499) in registry patients treated with conventional DMARDs. CONCLUSION: The approach performed well in the RA case study, but further work is required to better define its strengths and limitations.

Second-generation antipsychotic drugs and short-term mortality: a systematic review and meta-analysis of placebo-controlled randomised controlled trials.

BACKGROUND: Acutely occurring, life-threatening side-effects of antipsychotic drugs might contribute to the reduced life expectancy observed in patients with severe mental disorders. We aimed to assess this hypothesis by doing a systematic review and meta-analysis of deaths occurring in placebo-controlled trials of antipsychotic drugs. METHODS: For this systematic review and meta-analysis, we included randomised controlled trials comparing second-generation antipsychotics with placebo across several diagnostic categories. We searched MEDLINE, EMBASE, Cochrane CENTRAL, BIOSIS, PsycINFO, PubMed, ClinicalTrials.gov, and WHO ICTRP from inception (the last search was done on Jan 21, 2017), and contacted pharmaceutical companies and regulatory authorities for further eligible trials. We examined mortality from any cause (the primary outcome) and mortality from natural causes, suicide, and other non-natural causes. We synthesised the results with odds ratios (ORs) in a common-effects meta-analysis. We investigated the effects of age, diagnostic category, sex, study duration, antipsychotic drug used, drug dose, and polypharmacy in subgroup and meta-regression analyses. This study is registered with PROSPERO, number CRD42016033930. FINDINGS: We identified 596 randomised controlled trials published between 1978 and 2017, comprising 108 747 participants. 352 studies (comprising 84 988 participants) with mortality data available constituted the main dataset for our meta-analysis. 207 (0·4%) deaths were reported in 53 804 patients on an antipsychotic drug and 99 (0·3%) deaths in 31 184 patients on placebo. 300 (85%) of 352 trials were 13 weeks (3 months) or shorter in duration (median 6 weeks; IQR 4-10). We found no evidence of a difference between antipsychotic drugs and placebo in mortality by any cause (OR 1·19; 95% CI 0·93-1·53), from natural causes (1·29; 0·85-1·94), from suicide (1·15; 0·47-2·81), and from other non-natural causes (1·55; 0·66-3·63). Most subgroup and meta-regression analyses did not indicate any important effect moderators. The exceptions were increased mortality in patients with dementia (OR 1·56; 95% CI 1·10-2·21), in elderly patients (1·38; 1·01-1·89), in aripiprazole-treated patients (2·20; 1·00-4·86), and in studies with a higher proportion of women (regression coefficient 0·025; 95% credible interval 0·010-0·040). However, the effects in elderly patients, aripiprazole-treated patients, and women were mainly based on the included dementia trials. For patients with schizophrenia there was no evidence of an increased mortality risk (OR 0·69; 95% CI 0·35-1·35). INTERPRETATION: Overall, and for the main indication of schizophrenia, there is no evidence from randomised trials that antipsychotic drugs increase mortality. However, vulnerable populations (particularly patients with dementia) might be at increased risk. This meta-analysis could only address acute treatment effects leading to death in the short-term, and not long-term effects of antipsychotic drugs on mortality. FUNDING: German Ministry of Education and Research.