Predicting pregnancy chances leading to term live birth in oligo/anovulatory women diagnosed with PCOS.

RESEARCH QUESTION: Which patient features predict the time to pregnancy (TTP) leading to term live birth in infertile women diagnosed with polycystic ovary syndrome (PCOS)? DESIGN: Prospective cohort follow-up study was completed, in which initial standardized phenotyping was conducted at two Dutch university medical centres from January 2004 to January 2014. Data were linked to the Netherlands Perinatal Registry to obtain pregnancy outcomes for each participant. All women underwent treatment according to a standardized protocol, starting with ovulation induction as first-line treatment. Predictors of pregnancies (leading to term live births) during the first year after PCOS diagnosis were evaluated. RESULTS: A total of 1779 consecutive women diagnosed with PCOS between January 2004 and January 2014 were included. In the first year following screening, 659 (37%) women with PCOS attained a pregnancy leading to term birth (≥37 weeks of gestational age). A higher chance of pregnancy was associated with race, smoking, body mass index (BMI), insulin, total testosterone and sex hormone-binding globulin (SHBG) concentrations (c-statistic = 0.59). CONCLUSIONS: Predictors of an increased chance of a live birth include White race, no current smoking, lower BMI, insulin and total testosterone concentrations, and higher SHBG concentrations. This study presents a nomogram to predict the chances of achieving a pregnancy (leading to a term live birth) within 1 year of treatment.

Long-term effectiveness of dual CFTR modulator treatment of cystic fibrosis.

Background: Although short-term efficacy of lumacaftor/ivacaftor and tezacaftor/ivacaftor is clearly established in clinical trials, data on long-term effectiveness is limited. This registry-based cohort study assessed real-world longitudinal outcomes of F508del-homozygous people with cystic fibrosis (pwCF) ≥12 years, up to 3 years after the introduction of dual cystic fibrosis transmembrane conductance regulator (CFTR) modulators. Methods: Annual data (2010-2019) were retrieved from the Dutch Cystic Fibrosis Registry. Longitudinal trends of per cent predicted forced expiratory volume in 1 s (FEV1 % pred) decline, body mass index (BMI), BMI Z-score and intravenous antibiotic treatment duration before and after CFTR modulator initiation were assessed with linear and negative binomial mixed models. Results: We included 401 participants (41.9% female, baseline age 24.5 years (IQR 18.0-31.5 years), baseline mean±sd FEV1 70.5±23.4% pred). FEV1 decline improved from -1.36% pred per year to -0.48% pred per year after modulator initiation (change: 0.88% pred, 95% CI: 0.35-1.39%, p=0.001). This change was even 1.40% pred per year (95% CI: -0.0001-2.82%, p=0.050) higher in participants with baseline FEV1 <40% pred. In adults, annual BMI trend was not altered (change: 0.10 kg·m-2·year-1, 95% CI:-0.01-0.21, p=0.079). Annual BMI Z-score in children reversed from -0.08 per year before modulator treatment to 0.06 per year afterwards (change: 0.14 per year, 95% CI: 0.06-0.22, p<0.001). Intravenous antibiotic treatment duration showed a three-fold reduction in the first year after modulator initiation (incidence rate ratios (IRR): 0.28, 95% CI: 0.19-0.40, p<0.001), but the annual trend did not change in the subsequent years (IRR: 1.19, 95% CI: 0.94-1.50, p=0.153). Conclusion: Long-term effectiveness of dual CFTR modulator therapies on FEV1 decline, BMI and intravenous antibiotic treatment duration is less pronounced in a real-world setting than in clinical trials and varies considerably between pwCF and different baseline FEV1 levels.

Individual treatment effect estimation in the presence of unobserved confounding using proxies: a cohort study in stage III non-small cell lung cancer.

Randomized Controlled Trials (RCT) are the gold standard for estimating treatment effects but some important situations in cancer care require treatment effect estimates from observational data. We developed "Proxy based individual treatment effect modeling in cancer" (PROTECT) to estimate treatment effects from observational data when there are unobserved confounders, but proxy measurements of these confounders exist. We identified an unobserved confounder in observational cancer research: overall fitness. Proxy measurements of overall fitness exist like performance score, but the fitness as observed by the treating physician is unavailable for research. PROTECT reconstructs the distribution of the unobserved confounder based on these proxy measurements to estimate the treatment effect. PROTECT was applied to an observational cohort of 504 stage III non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) patients, treated with concurrent chemoradiation or sequential chemoradiation. Whereas conventional confounding adjustment methods seemed to overestimate the treatment effect, PROTECT provided credible treatment effect estimates.

Forskolin-induced organoid swelling is associated with long-term cystic fibrosis disease progression.

RATIONALE: Cystic fibrosis (CF) is a monogenic life-shortening disease associated with highly variable individual disease progression which is difficult to predict. Here we assessed the association of forskolin-induced swelling (FIS) of patient-derived organoids with long-term CF disease progression in multiple organs and compared FIS with the golden standard biomarker sweat chloride concentration (SCC). METHODS: We retrieved 9-year longitudinal clinical data from the Dutch CF Registry of 173 people with mutations in the cystic fibrosis transmembrane conductance regulator (CFTR) gene. Individual CFTR function was defined by FIS, measured as the relative size increase of intestinal organoids after stimulation with 0.8 µM forskolin, quantified as area under the curve (AUC). We used linear mixed-effect models and multivariable logistic regression to estimate the association of FIS with long-term forced expiratory volume in 1 s % predicted (FEV1pp) decline and development of pancreatic insufficiency, CF-related liver disease and diabetes. Within these models, FIS was compared with SCC. RESULTS: FIS was strongly associated with longitudinal changes of lung function, with an estimated difference in annual FEV1pp decline of 0.32% (95% CI 0.11-0.54%; p=0.004) per 1000-point change in AUC. Moreover, increasing FIS levels were associated with lower odds of developing pancreatic insufficiency (adjusted OR 0.18, 95% CI 0.07-0.46; p<0.001), CF-related liver disease (adjusted OR 0.18, 95% CI 0.06-0.54; p=0.002) and diabetes (adjusted OR 0.34, 95% CI 0.12-0.97; p=0.044). These associations were absent for SCC. CONCLUSION: This study exemplifies the prognostic value of a patient-derived organoid-based biomarker within a clinical setting, which is especially important for people carrying rare CFTR mutations with unclear clinical consequences.

Systematic review of statistical methods for safety data in malaria chemoprevention in pregnancy trials.

BACKGROUND: Drug safety assessments in clinical trials present unique analytical challenges. Some of these include adjusting for individual follow-up time, repeated measurements of multiple outcomes and missing data among others. Furthermore, pre-specifying appropriate analysis becomes difficult as some safety endpoints are unexpected. Although existing guidelines such as CONSORT encourage thorough reporting of adverse events (AEs) in clinical trials, they provide limited details for safety data analysis. The limited guidelines may influence suboptimal analysis by failing to account for some analysis challenges above. A typical example where such challenges exist are trials of anti-malarial drugs for malaria prevention during pregnancy. Lack of proper standardized evaluation of the safety of antimalarial drugs has limited the ability to draw conclusions about safety. Therefore, a systematic review was conducted to establish the current practice in statistical analysis for preventive antimalarial drug safety in pregnancy. METHODS: The search included five databases (PubMed, Embase, Scopus, Malaria in Pregnancy Library and Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials) to identify original English articles reporting Phase III randomized controlled trials (RCTs) on anti-malarial drugs for malaria prevention in pregnancy published from January 2010 to July 2019. RESULTS: Eighteen trials were included in this review that collected multiple longitudinal safety outcomes including AEs. Statistical analysis and reporting of the safety outcomes in all the trials used descriptive statistics; proportions/counts (n = 18, 100%) and mean/median (n = 2, 11.1%). Results presentation included tabular (n = 16, 88.9%) and text description (n = 2, 11.1%). Univariate inferential methods were reported in most trials (n = 16, 88.9%); including Chi square/Fisher's exact test (n = 12, 66.7%), t test (n = 2, 11.1%) and Mann-Whitney/Wilcoxon test (n = 1, 5.6%). Multivariable methods, including Poisson and negative binomial were reported in few trials (n = 3, 16.7%). Assessment of a potential link between missing efficacy data and safety outcomes was not reported in any of the trials that reported efficacy missing data (n = 7, 38.9%). CONCLUSION: The review demonstrated that statistical analysis of safety data in anti-malarial drugs for malarial chemoprevention in pregnancy RCTs is inadequate. The analyses insufficiently account for multiple safety outcomes potential dependence, follow-up time and informative missing data which can compromise anti-malarial drug safety evidence development, based on the available data.

Cardiometabolic health in offspring of women with PCOS compared to healthy controls: a systematic review and individual participant data meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: Women diagnosed with polycystic ovary syndrome (PCOS) suffer from an unfavorable cardiometabolic risk profile, which is already established by child-bearing age. OBJECTIVE AND RATIONALE: The aim of this systematic review along with an individual participant data meta-analysis is to evaluate whether cardiometabolic features in the offspring (females and males aged 1-18 years) of women with PCOS (OPCOS) are less favorable compared to the offspring of healthy controls. SEARCH METHODS: PubMed, Embase and gray literature databases were searched by three authors independently (M.N.G., M.A.W and J.C.) (last updated on 1 February 2018). Relevant key terms such as 'offspring' and 'PCOS' were combined. Outcomes were age-specific standardized scores of various cardiometabolic parameters: BMI, blood pressure, glucose, insulin, lipid profile and the sum scores of various cardiometabolic features (metabolic sum score). Linear mixed models were used for analyses with standardized beta (ß) as outcome. OUTCOMES: Nine relevant observational studies could be identified, which jointly included 1367 children: OPCOS and controls, originating from the Netherlands, Chile and the USA. After excluding neonates, duplicate records and follow-up screenings, a total of 885 subjects remained. In adjusted analyses, we observed that OPCOS (n = 298) exhibited increased plasma levels of fasting insulin (ß = 0.21(95%CI: 0.01-0.41), P = 0.05), insulin-resistance (ß = 0.21(95%CI: 0.01-0.42), P = 0.04), triglycerides (ß = 0.19(95%CI: 0.02-0.36), P = 0.03) and high-density lipoprotein (HDL)-cholesterol concentrations (ß = 0.31(95%CI: 0.08-0.54), P < 0.01), but a reduced birthweight (ß = -116(95%CI: -195 to 38), P < 0.01) compared to controls (n = 587). After correction for multiple testing, however, differences in insulin and triglycerides lost their statistical significance. Interaction tests for sex revealed differences between males and females when comparing OPCOS versus controls. A higher 2-hour fasting insulin was observed among female OPCOS versus female controls (estimated difference for females (ßf) = 0.45(95%CI: 0.07 to 0.83)) compared to the estimated difference between males ((ßm) = -0.20(95%CI: -0.58 to 0.19)), with interaction-test: P = 0.03. Low-density lipoprotein-cholesterol differences in OPCOS versus controls were lower among females (ßf = -0.39(95%CI: -0.62 to 0.16)), but comparable between male OPCOS and male controls (ßm = 0.27(95%CI: -0.03 to 0.57)), with interaction-test: P < 0.01. Total cholesterol differences in OPCOS versus controls were also lower in females compared to the difference in male OPCOS and male controls (ßf = -0.31(95%CI: -0.57 to 0.06), ßm = 0.28(95%CI: -0.01 to 0.56), interaction-test: P = 0.01). The difference in HDL-cholesterol among female OPCOS versus controls (ßf = 0.53(95%CI: 0.18-0.88)) was larger compared to the estimated mean difference among OPCOS males and the male controls (ßm = 0.13(95%CI: -0.05-0.31), interaction-test: P < 0.01). Interaction test in metabolic sum score revealed a significant difference between females (OPCOS versus controls) and males (OPCOS versus controls); however, sub analyses performed in both sexes separately did not reveal a difference among females (OPCOS versus controls: ßf = -0.14(95%CI: -1.05 to 0.77)) or males (OPCOS versus controls: ßm = 0.85(95%CI: -0.10 to 1.79)), with P-value < 0.01. WIDER IMPLICATIONS: We observed subtle signs of altered cardiometabolic health in OPCOS. Therefore, the unfavorable cardiovascular profile of women with PCOS at childbearing age may-next to a genetic predisposition-influence the health of their offspring. Sensitivity analyses revealed that these differences were predominantly observed among female offspring aged between 1 and 18 years. Moreover, studies with minimal risk of bias should elucidate the influence of a PCOS diagnosis in mothers on both sexes during fetal development and subsequently during childhood.

Coronary artery calcification in middle-aged women with premature ovarian insufficiency.

OBJECTIVE: Women with premature ovarian insufficiency (POI) enter menopause before age 40. Early menopause was associated with increased risk for coronary artery disease (CAD), death from cardiovascular disease and all-cause mortality. We compared the prevalence of CAD between middle-aged women on average 10 years following the initial POI diagnosis, with a population-based cohort. DESIGN: Cross-sectional case-control study. PARTICIPANTS: Women from two Dutch University Medical Centers above 45 years of age previously diagnosed with POI (n = 98) were selected and compared with age- and race-matched controls from the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis (MESA). MEASUREMENTS: The primary outcome was detectable coronary artery calcium (CAC) determined by coronary computed tomography (CCT). RESULTS: Women with POI had significantly higher blood pressure, cholesterol and glucose, despite lower BMI compared to controls. Similar proportions of detectable CAC (CAC score >0 Agatston Units) were observed in women with POI and controls (POI n = 16 (16%), controls n = 52 (18%), P = 0.40 and Padj  = 0.93). In women with POI separately, we were not able to identify associations between CVD risk factors and CAC. The following CVD risk factors in controls were positively associated with CAC: age, diabetes mellitus, hypertension and LDL cholesterol. HRT use was negatively associated with CAC in controls. CONCLUSIONS: The presence of CAC did not differ significantly in women with POI around 50 years of age, compared to an age- and race-matched control group. We observe no increased calcified coronary disease in POI patients, despite the presence of unfavourable cardiovascular risk factors in these women.

Can Menopause Prediction Be Improved With Multiple AMH Measurements? Results From the Prospective Doetinchem Cohort Study.

CONTEXT: Anti-Müllerian hormone (AMH) levels are used worldwide as a screening tool for the duration of the female reproductive lifespan. Although AMH levels are associated with age at menopause, individual predictions of menopause with a single AMH measurement are unreliable. OBJECTIVE: This study investigated whether individual AMH decline patterns can improve the prediction of menopause compared with a single measurement. DESIGN: The study population comprised 2434 premenopausal women from the population-based Doetinchem Cohort Study. Participants were followed up every 5 years for a total of 20 years, and AMH was measured in 6699 plasma samples with the picoAMH assay. Longitudinal statistical modeling was combined with time varying Cox modeling, to integrate multiple AMH measurements per woman. RESULTS: The mean age at menopause was 50 years, and 7.4% of the women who reached menopause during follow-up did so before age 45 years. For a 25-year-old, the AMH decline rate between ages 20 and 25 years increased the C-statistic of menopause prediction from 0.64 to 0.69. Beyond that age, the AMH decline rate did not improve predictions of menopause or early menopause. For women younger than age 30 years, for whom menopause prediction is arguably most relevant, the models underestimated the risk of early menopause. CONCLUSION: These results suggest that knowledge of the AMH decline rate does not improve the prediction of menopause. Based on the low discriminative ability and underestimation of the risk of early menopause, the use of AMH as a screening method for the timing of menopause cannot currently be advocated.

Sample size considerations and predictive performance of multinomial logistic prediction models.

Multinomial Logistic Regression (MLR) has been advocated for developing clinical prediction models that distinguish between three or more unordered outcomes. We present a full-factorial simulation study to examine the predictive performance of MLR models in relation to the relative size of outcome categories, number of predictors and the number of events per variable. It is shown that MLR estimated by Maximum Likelihood yields overfitted prediction models in small to medium sized data. In most cases, the calibration and overall predictive performance of the multinomial prediction model is improved by using penalized MLR. Our simulation study also highlights the importance of events per variable in the multinomial context as well as the total sample size. As expected, our study demonstrates the need for optimism correction of the predictive performance measures when developing the multinomial logistic prediction model. We recommend the use of penalized MLR when prediction models are developed in small data sets or in medium sized data sets with a small total sample size (ie, when the sizes of the outcome categories are balanced). Finally, we present a case study in which we illustrate the development and validation of penalized and unpenalized multinomial prediction models for predicting malignancy of ovarian cancer.

Pre-Conception Characteristics Predict Obstetrical and Neonatal Outcomes in Women With Polycystic Ovary Syndrome.

Context: Women with polycystic ovary syndrome (PCOS) are at increased risk for obstetric and perinatal complications. At present, it is unknown how characteristics of PCOS relate to the likelihood of these complications. Objective: To evaluate which preconception features are associated with obstetric and perinatal disease among infertile women with PCOS. Design: Data from two prospective cohort studies completed from January 2004 until January 2014 were linked to Dutch Perinatal national registry outcomes. Setting: Two Dutch university medical centers. Participants: 2768 women diagnosed with PCOS were included. Participants underwent an extensive standardized preconception screening. Exclusion criteria included: age <18 years or >45 years, language barrier, or failure to meet PCOS criteria. Interventions: None. Main Outcome Measures: Outcome measures were obtained from the Dutch Perinatal national registry and included: preeclampsia, preterm delivery, small for gestational age (SGA), low Apgar score, and any adverse outcome. Results: 1715 (62% of participants) women with PCOS were identified as undergoing a pregnancy with live birth after screening. In fully adjusted models, prepregnancy free androgen index was associated with subsequent preeclampsia [OR (95% CI), 1.1 (1.0 to 1.1)]. Fasting glucose [1.4 (1.2 to 1.7)] and testosterone [1.5 (1.2 to 1.7)] predicted preterm delivery. Fasting insulin [1.003 (1.001 to 1.005)], and testosterone [1.2 (1.1 to 1.4)] predicted any adverse outcome. SGA was only predicted by features nonspecific to PCOS. Conclusions: Primary disease characteristics of PCOS, chiefly hyperandrogenism and impaired glucose tolerance, predict suboptimal obstetric and neonatal outcomes. Increased surveillance during pregnancy should focus on women with PCOS and these features to help mitigate disease risk.

Estrogen deprivation and cardiovascular disease risk in primary ovarian insufficiency.

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the association between estrogen (E) exposure and deficiency and cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk among women with primary ovarian insufficiency (POI). DESIGN: Cross-sectional study conducted between 1996 and 2016. SETTING: Tertiary referral centers. PATIENT(S): A total of 385 women with POI, defined by amenorrhea and FSH levels ≥40 IU/L before 40 years of age, were recruited. INTERVENTION(S): None. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE(S): Women underwent a standardized intake questionnaire including data on menstrual cyclicity. Lifetime E exposure and E-free period were assessed. Serum was analyzed for endocrine and CVD profiles. The Framingham 30-year risk of CVD was calculated. RESULT(S): Lifetime E exposure (mean ± SD) was 19.3 ± 7.0 years, E-free period was 3.1 ± 4.1 years, and age at screening was 34.8 ± 7.4 years. In multivariate models E-free interval associated positively with estimated risk of hard and general CVD events (ß 0.18 [95% confidence interval 0.08, 0.29]; 0.20 [0.05, 0.35], respectively), and lifetime E exposure associated negatively with estimated risk of hard and general CVD events (-0.15 [-0.24, -0.05]; -0.16 [-0.29, -0.03], respectively), as well as low density lipoprotein cholesterol (-0.03 [-0.06, 0.00]) and non-high density lipoprotein cholesterol (-0.04 [-0.07, 0.00]). CONCLUSION(S): Prolonged E deprivation is associated with an increased estimated risk of CVD, whereas prolonged E exposure is associated with a reduced estimated risk. These results support the policy of early and continued use of E replacement therapy in women with POI. CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: NCT0230904.

Cardiovascular and Metabolic Health of 74 Children From Women Previously Diagnosed With Polycystic Ovary Syndrome in Comparison With a Population-Based Reference Cohort.

Women with polycystic ovary syndrome (PCOS) have compromised cardiovascular health profiles and an increased risk of pregnancy complications. In order to evaluate potential consequences, we aim to compare the cardiovascular and metabolic health of the children from women with PCOS with a population-based reference cohort. We included children from women with PCOS between the age of 2.5 to 4 years (n = 42) and 6 to 8 years (n = 32). The reference groups consisted of 168 (3-4 years old) and 130 children (7-8 years old). In an extensive cardiovascular screening program, we measured anthropometrics and blood pressure (all children), heart function and vascular rigidity (young children), metabolic laboratory assessment and carotid intima thickness (old age-group). Results showed that young PCOS offspring have a significantly lower diastolic blood pressure (ß = 2.3 [95% confidence interval, CI: 0.5-4.0]) and higher aortic pulse pressure (ß = -1.4 [95% CI: -2.5 to -0.2]), compared to the reference population. Furthermore, a higher left ventricle internal diameter but a lower tissue Doppler imaging of the right wall in systole compared to the reference group was found. Older offspring of women with PCOS presented with a significantly lower breast and abdominal circumference, but higher triglycerides (ß = -0.1 [95% CI: -0.2 to -0.1]), LDL-cholesterol (ß = -0.4 [95% CI: -0.6 to -0.1]), and higher carotid intima-media thickness (ß = -31.7 [95% CI: -46.6 to -16.9]) compared to the reference group. In conclusion, we observe subtle but distinct cardiovascular and metabolic abnormalities already at an early age in PCOS offspring compared to a population-based reference group, despite a lower diastolic blood pressure, breast, and abdominal circumference. These preliminary findings require confirmation in independent data sets.

Identification of differentially expressed peptides in high-throughput proteomics data.

With the advent of high-throughput proteomics, the type and amount of data pose a significant challenge to statistical approaches used to validate current quantitative analysis. Whereas many studies focus on the analysis at the protein level, the analysis of peptide-level data provides insight into changes at the sub-protein level, including splice variants, isoforms and a range of post-translational modifications. Statistical evaluation of liquid chromatography-mass spectrometry/mass spectrometry peptide-based label-free differential data is most commonly performed using a t-test or analysis of variance, often after the application of data imputation to reduce the number of missing values. In high-throughput proteomics, statistical analysis methods and imputation techniques are difficult to evaluate, given the lack of gold standard data sets. Here, we use experimental and resampled data to evaluate the performance of four statistical analysis methods and the added value of imputation, for different numbers of biological replicates. We find that three or four replicates are the minimum requirement for high-throughput data analysis and confident assignment of significant changes. Data imputation does increase sensitivity in some cases, but leads to a much higher actual false discovery rate. Additionally, we find that empirical Bayes method (limma) achieves the highest sensitivity, and we thus recommend its use for performing differential expression analysis at the peptide level.

Individualized versus standard FSH dosing in women starting IVF/ICSI: an RCT. Part 2: The predicted hyper responder.

STUDY QUESTION: Does a reduced FSH dose in women with a predicted hyper response, apparent from a high antral follicle count (AFC), who are scheduled for IVF/ICSI lead to a different outcome with respect to cumulative live birth rate and safety? SUMMARY ANSWER: Although in women with a predicted hyper response (AFC > 15) undergoing IVF/ICSI a reduced FSH dose (100 IU per day) results in similar cumulative live birth rates and a lower occurrence of any grade of ovarian hyperstimulation syndrome (OHSS) as compared to a standard dose (150 IU/day), a higher first cycle cancellation rate and similar severe OHSS rate were observed. WHAT IS KNOWN ALREADY: Excessive ovarian response to controlled ovarian stimulation (COS) for IVF/ICSI may result in increased rates of cycle cancellation, the occurrence of OHSS and suboptimal live birth rates. In women scheduled for IVF/ICSI, an ovarian reserve test (ORT) can be used to predict response to COS. No consensus has been reached on whether ORT-based FSH dosing improves effectiveness and safety in women with a predicted hyper response. STUDY DESIGN SIZE, DURATION: Between May 2011 and May 2014, we performed an open-label, multicentre RCT in women with regular menstrual cycles and an AFC > 15. Women with polycystic ovary syndrome (Rotterdam criteria) were excluded. The primary outcome was ongoing pregnancy achieved within 18 months after randomization and resulting in a live birth. Secondary outcomes included the occurrence of OHSS and cost-effectiveness. Since this RCT was embedded in a cohort study assessing over 1500 women, we expected to randomize 300 predicted hyper responders. PARTICIPANTS/MATERIALS, SETTING, METHODS: Women with an AFC > 15 were randomized to an FSH dose of 100 IU or 150 IU/day. In both groups, dose adjustment was allowed in subsequent cycles (maximum 25 IU in the reduced and 50 IU in the standard group) based on pre-specified criteria. Both effectiveness and cost-effectiveness were evaluated from an intention-to-treat perspective. MAIN RESULTS AND THE ROLE OF CHANCE: We randomized 255 women to a daily FSH dose of 100 IU and 266 women to a daily FSH dose of 150 IU. The cumulative live birth rate was 66.3% (169/255) in the reduced versus 69.5% (185/266) in the standard group (relative risk (RR) 0.95 [95%CI, 0.85-1.07], P = 0.423). The occurrence of any grade of OHSS was lower after a lower FSH dose (5.2% versus 11.8%, RR 0.44 [95%CI, 0.28-0.71], P = 0.001), but the occurrence of severe OHSS did not differ (1.3% versus 1.1%, RR 1.25 [95%CI, 0.38-4.07], P = 0.728). As dose reduction was not less expensive (€4.622 versus €4.714, delta costs/woman €92 [95%CI, -479-325]), there was no dominant strategy in the economic analysis. LIMITATIONS, REASONS FOR CAUTION: Despite our training programme, the AFC might have suffered from inter-observer variation. Although strict cancellation criteria were provided, selective cancelling in the reduced dose group (for poor response in particular) cannot be excluded as observers were not blinded for the FSH dose and small dose adjustments were allowed in subsequent cycles. However, as first cycle live birth rates did not differ from the cumulative results, the open design probably did not mask a potential benefit for the reduced dosing group. As this RCT was embedded in a larger cohort study, the power in this study was unavoidably lower than it should be. Participants had a relatively low BMI from an international perspective, which may limit generalization of the findings. WIDER IMPLICATIONS OF THE FINDINGS: In women with a predicted hyper response scheduled for IVF/ICSI, a reduced FSH dose does not affect live birth rates. A lower FSH dose did reduce the incidence of mild and moderate OHSS, but had no impact on severe OHSS. Future research into ORT-based dosing in women with a predicted hyper response should compare various safety management strategies and should be powered on a clinically relevant safety outcome while assessing non-inferiority towards live birth rates. STUDY FUNDING/COMPETING INTEREST(S): This trial was funded by The Netherlands Organization for Health Research and Development (ZonMW, Project Number 171102020). SCO, TCvT and HLT received an unrestricted research grant from Merck Serono (the Netherlands). CBL receives grants from Merck, Ferring and Guerbet. BWJM is supported by a NHMRC Practitioner Fellowship (GNT1082548) and reports consultancy for OvsEva, Merck and Guerbet. FJMB receives monetary compensation as a member of the external advisory board for Ferring pharmaceutics BV and Merck Serono for consultancy work for Gedeon Richter (Belgium) and Roche Diagnostics (Switzerland) and for a research cooperation with Ansh Labs (USA). All other authors have nothing to declare. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: Registered at the ICMJE-recognized Dutch Trial Registry (www.trialregister.nl). Registration number: NTR2657. TRIAL REGISTRATION DATE: 20 December 2010. DATE OF FIRST PATIENT'S ENROLMENT: 12 May 2011.

Individualized versus standard FSH dosing in women starting IVF/ICSI: an RCT. Part 1: The predicted poor responder.

STUDY QUESTION: Does an increased FSH dose result in higher cumulative live birth rates in women with a predicted poor ovarian response, apparent from a low antral follicle count (AFC), scheduled for IVF or ICSI? SUMMARY ANSWER: In women with a predicted poor ovarian response (AFC < 11) undergoing IVF/ICSI, an increased FSH dose (225/450 IU/day) does not improve cumulative live birth rates as compared to a standard dose (150 IU/day). WHAT IS KNOWN ALREADY: In women scheduled for IVF/ICSI, an ovarian reserve test (ORT) can predict ovarian response to stimulation. The FSH starting dose is often adjusted based on the ORT from the belief that it will improve live birth rates. However, the existing RCTs on this topic, most of which show no benefit, are underpowered. STUDY DESIGN, SIZE, DURATION: Between May 2011 and May 2014, we performed an open-label multicentre RCT in women with an AFC < 11 (Dutch Trial Register NTR2657). The primary outcome was ongoing pregnancy achieved within 18 months after randomization and resulting in a live birth. We needed 300 women to assess whether an increased dose strategy would increase the cumulative live birth rate from 25 to 40% (two-sided alpha-error 0.05, power 80%). PARTICIPANTS/MATERIALS, SETTING, METHODS: Women with an AFC ≤ 7 were randomized to an FSH dose of 450 IU/day or 150 IU/day, and women with an AFC 8-10 were randomized to 225 IU or 150 IU/day. In the standard group, dose adjustment was allowed in subsequent cycles based on pre-specified criteria. Both effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of the strategies were evaluated from an intention-to-treat perspective. MAIN RESULTS AND THE ROLE OF CHANCE: In total, 511 women were randomized, 234 with an AFC ≤ 7 and 277 with an AFC 8-10. The cumulative live birth rate for increased versus standard dosing was 42.4% (106/250) versus 44.8% (117/261), respectively [relative risk (RR): 0.95 (95%CI, 0.78-1.15), P = 0.58]. As an increased dose strategy was more expensive [delta costs/woman: €1099 (95%CI, 562-1591)], standard FSH dosing was the dominant strategy in our economic analysis. LIMITATIONS, REASONS FOR CAUTION: Despite our training programme, the AFC might have suffered from inter-observer variation. As this open study permitted small dose adjustments between cycles, potential selective cancelling of cycles in women treated with 150 IU could have influenced the cumulative results. However, since first cycle live birth rates point in the same direction we consider it unlikely that the open design masked a potential benefit for the individualized strategy. WIDER IMPLICATIONS OF THE FINDINGS: Since an increased dose in women scheduled for IVF/ICSI with a predicted poor response (AFC < 11) does not improve live birth rates and is more expensive, we recommend using a standard dose of 150 IU/day in these women. STUDY FUNDING/COMPETING INTEREST(S): This study was funded by The Netherlands Organisation for Health Research and Development (ZonMW number 171102020). T.C.T., H.L.T. and S.C.O. received an unrestricted personal grant from Merck BV. H.R.V. receives monetary compensation as a member on an external advisory board for Ferring pharmaceutical BV. B.W.J.M. is supported by a NHMRC Practitioner Fellowship (GNT1082548) and reports consultancy for OvsEva, Merck and Guerbet. F.J.M.B. receives monetary compensation as a member of the external advisory board for Ferring pharmaceutics BV (the Netherlands) and Merck Serono (the Netherlands) for consultancy work for Gedeon Richter (Belgium) and Roche Diagnostics on automated AMH assay development (Switzerland) and for a research cooperation with Ansh Labs (USA). All other authors have nothing to declare. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: Registered at the ICMJE-recognized Dutch Trial Registry (www.trialregister.nl). Registration number NTR2657. TRIAL REGISTRATION DATE: 20 December 2010. DATE OF FIRST PATIENT'S ENROLMENT: 12 May 2011.

Increased rates of complications in singleton pregnancies of women previously diagnosed with polycystic ovary syndrome predominantly in the hyperandrogenic phenotype.

OBJECTIVE: To study the presence of several maternal and neonatal complications in a cohort of women with hyperandrogenic as well as normoandrogenic polycystic ovary syndrome (PCOS) and women with PCOS who received different fertility treatments. DESIGN: Prospective multicenter cohort study. SETTING: Hospitals and midwifery practices. PATIENT(S): One hundred and eighty-eight women with PCOS and singleton pregnancies (study group) and 2,889 women with a naturally conceived singleton pregnancy (reference group). INTERVENTION(S): Observational study. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE(S): Maternal and neonatal pregnancy complications. RESULT(S): Women with PCOS had a statistically significantly increased risk of developing gestational diabetes (adjusted odds ratio [AOR] 4.15; 95% confidence interval [CI], 2.07-8.33) compared with the reference group, and their infants were more often born small for gestational age (AOR 3.76; 95% CI, 1.69-8.35). In a subgroup analysis, maternal complications were statistically significantly more often present in women with hyperandrogenic (defined as a free androgen index >4.5) PCOS (n = 76; 40% of all PCOS women) compared with those with normoandrogenic PCOS (n = 97; 52% of all PCOS women) (45% vs. 24%; P=.003); no statistically significant differences were observed between these groups regarding neonatal complications. CONCLUSION(S): Women with PCOS have an increased risk of maternal and neonatal pregnancy complications, especially women with the hyperandrogenic phenotype. CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: NCT00821379.

Meta-analysis approach as a gene selection method in class prediction: does it improve model performance? A case study in acute myeloid leukemia.

BACKGROUND: Aggregating gene expression data across experiments via meta-analysis is expected to increase the precision of the effect estimates and to increase the statistical power to detect a certain fold change. This study evaluates the potential benefit of using a meta-analysis approach as a gene selection method prior to predictive modeling in gene expression data. RESULTS: Six raw datasets from different gene expression experiments in acute myeloid leukemia (AML) and 11 different classification methods were used to build classification models to classify samples as either AML or healthy control. First, the classification models were trained on gene expression data from single experiments using conventional supervised variable selection and externally validated with the other five gene expression datasets (referred to as the individual-classification approach). Next, gene selection was performed through meta-analysis on four datasets, and predictive models were trained with the selected genes on the fifth dataset and validated on the sixth dataset. For some datasets, gene selection through meta-analysis helped classification models to achieve higher performance as compared to predictive modeling based on a single dataset; but for others, there was no major improvement. Synthetic datasets were generated from nine simulation scenarios. The effect of sample size, fold change and pairwise correlation between differentially expressed (DE) genes on the difference between MA- and individual-classification model was evaluated. The fold change and pairwise correlation significantly contributed to the difference in performance between the two methods. The gene selection via meta-analysis approach was more effective when it was conducted using a set of data with low fold change and high pairwise correlation on the DE genes. CONCLUSION: Gene selection through meta-analysis on previously published studies potentially improves the performance of a predictive model on a given gene expression data.

Anti-Müllerian Hormone Trajectories Are Associated With Cardiovascular Disease in Women: Results From the Doetinchem Cohort Study.

BACKGROUND: Earlier age at menopause is widely considered to be associated with an increased risk of cardiovascular disease. However, the underlying mechanisms of this relationship remain undetermined. Indications suggest that anti-Müllerian hormone (AMH), an ovarian reserve marker, plays a physiological role outside of the reproductive system. Therefore, we investigated whether longitudinal AMH decline trajectories are associated with an increased risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD) occurrence. METHODS: This study included 3108 female participants between 20 and 60 years of age at baseline of the population-based Doetinchem Cohort. Participants completed ≥1 of 5 consecutive quinquennial visits between 1987 and 2010, resulting in a total follow-up time of 20 years. AMH was measured in 8507 stored plasma samples. Information on total CVD, stroke, and coronary heart disease was obtained through a hospital discharge registry linkage. The association of AMH trajectories with CVD was quantified with joint modeling, with adjustment for age, smoking, oral contraceptive use, body mass index, menopausal status, postmenopausal hormone therapy use, diastolic blood pressure, total cholesterol, high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, and glucose levels. RESULTS: By the end of follow-up, 8.2% of the women had suffered from CVD, 4.9% had suffered from coronary heart disease, and 2.6% had experienced a stroke. After adjustment, each ng/mL lower logAMH level was associated with a 21% higher risk of CVD (hazard ratio, 1.21; 95% confidence interval, 1.07-1.36) and a 26% higher risk of coronary heart disease (hazard ratio, 1.25; 95% confidence interval, 1.08-1.46). Each additional ng/mL/year decrease of logAMH was associated with a significantly higher risk of CVD (hazard ratio, 1.46; 95% confidence interval, 1.14-1.87) and coronary heart disease (hazard ratio, 1.56; 95% confidence interval, 1.15-2.12). No association between AMH and stroke was found. CONCLUSIONS: These results indicate that AMH trajectories in women are independently associated with CVD risk. Therefore, we postulate that the decline of circulating AMH levels may be part of the pathophysiology of the increased cardiovascular risk of earlier menopause. Confirmation of this association and elucidation of its underlying mechanisms are needed to place these results in a clinical perspective.

Endocrine and cardiometabolic cord blood characteristics of offspring born to mothers with and without polycystic ovary syndrome.

OBJECTIVE: To compare the endocrine and cardiometabolic cord blood characteristics of offspring of mothers with polycystic ovary syndrome (PCOS) with those of healthy controls. DESIGN: Cross-sectional case control study. SETTING: University medical centers. PATIENT(S): Offspring from mothers with PCOS (n = 61) and healthy controls (n = 82). INTERVENTION(S): Cord blood withdrawal from neonates. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE(S): Cord blood estradiol, androstenedione, dehydroepiandrosterone sulfate (DHEAS), testosterone, sex hormone-binding globulin, free androgen index (FAI), insulin, total cholesterol, low-density lipoprotein cholesterol, high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, triglycerides, c-reactive protein, adiponectin, and leptin. RESULT(S): Androstenedione and leptin concentrations were increased in the offspring of women with PCOS compared with the controls: androstenedione median 2.9 (interquartile range [IQR] 2.3-3.9) nmol/L vs. 2.2 [IQR 1.6-2.7] nmol/L; and leptin median 13.6 [IQR 8.3-22.9] µg/L vs. 9.8 [IQR 6.0-16.5] µg/L. After adjusting for maternal and pregnancy-related confounders (such as maternal age, gestational age, birth weight), androstenedione appeared associated with PCOS in both male (relative change 1.36 [1.04; 1.78]) and female offspring (relative change 1.40 [1.08; 1.82]). Similarly, in male offspring the leptin concentrations appeared associated with PCOS after correction for confounders (relative change 1.55 [1.12; 2.14]). After correction for multiple testing, these associations attenuated. CONCLUSION(S): Observed results suggest that androstenedione concentrations are increased in the cord blood of male and female offspring of women with PCOS, although this requires confirmation. This finding would support the hypothesis that a maternal hyperandrogenic environment during pregnancy in women with PCOS may predispose their offspring to fetal hyperandrogenism. The potential associations between fetal hyperandrogenism and long-term health effects remain to be elucidated. CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: NCT00821379.

Serum AMH levels in healthy women from BRCA1/2 mutated families: are they reduced?

STUDY QUESTION: Do BRCA1/2 mutation carriers have a compromised ovarian reserve compared to proven non-carriers, based on serum anti-Müllerian hormone (AMH) levels? SUMMARY ANSWER: BRCA1/2 mutation carriers do not show a lower serum AMH level in comparison to proven non-carriers, after adjustment for potential confounders. WHAT IS KNOWN ALREADY: It has been suggested that the BRCA genes play a role in the process of ovarian reserve depletion, although previous studies have shown inconsistent results regarding the association between serum AMH levels and BRCA mutation status. Hence, it is yet unclear whether BRCA1/2 mutation carriers may indeed be at risk of a reduced reproductive lifespan. STUDY DESIGN, SIZE, DURATION: A multicenter, cross-sectional study was performed between January 2012 and February 2015 in 255 women. We needed to include 120 BRCA1/2 mutation carriers and 120 proven non-carriers to demonstrate a difference in AMH levels of 0.40 µg/l (SD ± 0.12 µg/l, two-sided alpha-error 0.05, power 80%). PARTICIPANTS/MATERIALS, SETTING, METHOD: Healthy women aged 18-45 years who were referred to the Clinical Genetics Department and applied for predictive BRCA1/2 testing because of a familial BRCA1/2 mutation were asked to participate. A cross-sectional assessment was performed by measuring serum AMH levels and filling out a questionnaire. Multivariate linear regression analyses adjusted for age, current smoking and current hormonal contraceptive use were performed on log-transformed serum AMH levels. MAIN RESULTS AND THE ROLE OF CHANCE: Out of 823 potentially eligible women, 421 (51.2%) were willing to participate, and of those, 166 (39%) did not meet our inclusion criteria. Two hundred and fifty-five women were available for analyses; 124 BRCA1/2 mutation carriers and 131 proven non-carriers. The median [range] AMH level in carriers was 1.90 µg/l [0.11-19.00] compared to 1.80 µg/l [0.11-10.00] in non-carriers (P = 0.34). Adjusted linear regression analysis revealed no reduction in AMH level in the carriers (relative change = 0.98 (95%CI, 0.77-1.22); P = 0.76). LIMITATIONS, REASONS FOR CAUTION: Participants were relatively young. Power was insufficient to analyze BRCA1 and BRCA2 mutation carriers separately. AMH levels may have been influenced by the use of hormonal contraceptives, though similar proportions of carriers and non-carriers were current users and adjustments were made to correct for potential confounding in our analysis. WIDER IMPLICATIONS OF THE FINDINGS: Limitations of the current analysis and limitations of the existing literature argue for prospective, well-controlled follow-up studies with recurrent AMH measurements to determine whether carriers might be at risk for low ovarian reserve and to definitively guide care. STUDY FUNDING/COMPETING INTERESTS: This study was partially financially supported by a personal grant for Inge A.P. Derks-Smeets, kindly provided by the Dutch Cancer Society (Grant Number UM 2011-5249). Theodora C. van Tilborg, Inge A.P. Derks-Smeets, Anna M.E. Bos, Jan C. Oosterwijk, Christine E. de Die-Smulders, Lizet E. van der Kolk, Wendy A.G. van Zelst-Stams, Maria E. Velthuizen, Marinus J.C. Eijkemans and Margreet G.E.M. Ausems have nothing to disclose. Ron J. van Golde has received unrestricted research grants from Ferring and Merck Serono, outside the submitted work. Annemieke Hoek received an unrestricted educational grant from Ferring pharmaceutical BV, The Netherlands and a speaker's fee for post graduate education from MSD pharmaceutical company, outside the submitted work. Joop S.E. Laven has received unrestricted research grants from Ferring, Merck Serono, Merck Sharpe & Dome, Organon, and Schering Plough, outside the submitted work. Frank J.M. Broekmans is a member of the external advisory board for Merck Serono (The Netherlands), outside the submitted work. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: NTR no. 4324.