Differences in Prediagnostic Serum Metabolomic and Lipidomic Profiles Between Cirrhosis Patients with and without Incident Hepatocellular Carcinoma.

Background: Early detection of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is crucial for improving patient outcomes, but we lack robust clinical biomarkers. This study aimed to identify a metabolite and/or lipid panel for early HCC detection. Methods: We developed a high-resolution liquid chromatography mass spectrometry (LC-MS)-based profiling platform and evaluated differences in the global metabolome and lipidome between 28 pre-diagnostic serum samples from patients with cirrhosis who subsequently developed HCC (cases) and 30 samples from patients with cirrhosis and no HCC (controls). We linked differentially expressed metabolites and lipids to their associated genes, proteins, and transcriptomic signatures in publicly available datasets. We used machine learning models to identify a minimal panel to distinguish between cases and controls. Results: Among cases compared with controls, 124 metabolites and 246 lipids were upregulated, while 208 metabolites and 73 lipids were downregulated. The top upregulated metabolites were glycoursodeoxycholic acid, 5-methyltetrahydrofolic acid, octanoyl-coenzyme A, and glycocholic acid. Elevated lipids comprised glycerol lipids, cardiolipin, and phosphatidylethanolamine, whereas suppressed lipids included oxidized phosphatidylcholine and lysophospholipids. There was an overlap between differentially expressed metabolites and lipids and previously published transcriptomic signatures, illustrating an association with liver disease severity. A panel of 12 metabolites that distinguished between cases and controls with an area under the receiver operating curve of 0.98 for the support vector machine (interquartile range, 0.9-1). Conclusion: Using prediagnostic serum samples, we identified a promising metabolites panel that accurately identifies patients with cirrhosis who progressed to HCC. Further validation of this panel is required.

GLP-1 Receptor Agonists and Risk for Cirrhosis and Related Complications in Patients With Metabolic Dysfunction-Associated Steatotic Liver Disease.

Importance: Metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease (MASLD) is an increasing cause of cirrhosis. Glucagon-like peptide 1 receptor agonists (GLP-1 RAs) are effective in improving liver inflammation in patients with MASLD. Objective: To determine whether use of GLP-1 RAs is associated with lower risk of developing cirrhosis and its complications, including decompensation and hepatocellular cancer (HCC), among patients with MASLD. Design, Setting, and Participants: This retrospective cohort study with an active comparator, new-user design used data from the national Veterans Health Administration Corporate Data Warehouse and Central Cancer Registry. Patients with MASLD and diabetes who were seen at 130 Veterans Health Administration hospitals and associated ambulatory clinics and who initiated either a GLP-1 RA or dipeptidyl peptidase 4 inhibitor (DPP-4i) between January 1, 2006, and June 30, 2022, were included. Patients were followed up from baseline until one of the study outcomes or the end of the study period (December 31, 2022), whichever came first. Exposures: Each GLP-1 RA new user was propensity score matched in 1:1 ratio to a patient who initiated a DPP-4i during the same month. Separate analyses were conducted among patients without and with cirrhosis at baseline. Main Outcomes and Measures: For patients without cirrhosis, the primary outcome was progression to cirrhosis defined by validated diagnoses codes or a noninvasive marker of liver fibrosis, and secondary outcomes were cirrhosis complications defined both as a composite and individual complications, including decompensation, HCC, or liver transplant, and all-cause mortality. For patients with cirrhosis, the primary outcome was a composite outcome of cirrhosis complications, and secondary outcomes were decompensation, HCC, and all-cause mortality. Results: Of 16 058 patients who initiated GLP-1 RAs, 14 606 did not have cirrhosis (mean [SD] age, 60.56 [10.31] years; 13 015 [89.1%] male), and 1452 had cirrhosis (mean [SD] age, 66.99 [7.09] years; 1360 [93.7%] male) at baseline. These patients were matched to an equal number of patients who initiated a DPP-4i. In patients without cirrhosis, GLP-1 RA use, compared with DPP-4i use, was associated with a lower risk of cirrhosis (9.98 vs 11.10 events per 1000 person-years; hazard ratio [HR], 0.86; 95% CI, 0.75-0.98). Similar results were seen for the secondary outcomes. GLP-1 RA use, compared with DPP-4i use, was associated with a lower risk of the composite outcome of cirrhosis complications (1.89 vs 2.55 events per 1000 person-years; HR, 0.78; 95% CI, 0.59-1.04) and mortality (21.77 vs 24.43 events per 1000 person-years; HR, 0.89; 95% CI, 0.81-0.98). There were no associations between GLP-1 RA use and outcomes in patients with cirrhosis. Conclusions and Relevance: In this cohort study, GLP-1 RA use was associated with a lower risk of progression to cirrhosis and mortality among patients with MASLD and diabetes. The protective association was not seen in patients with existing cirrhosis, underscoring the importance of treatment earlier in the disease course.

Exposure to Light at Night and Risk of Cancer: A Systematic Review, Meta-Analysis, and Data Synthesis.

BACKGROUND: Emerging interest surrounds the role of environmental factors, notably exposure to light at night (LAN), as a potential cause of cancer. The aim of this study was to conduct a systematic review and, if possible, meta-analysis of observational studies on LAN and cancer risk of multiple types. METHODS: A systematic literature search in PubMed, Web of Science, and Embase, spanning from inception to May 2023, was conducted. Studies focusing on the association between LAN exposure and cancer risk in adult populations were included. We used random effects models to calculate pooled risk estimates (RR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI). We assessed study quality using the Risk of Bias in Non-randomized Studies of Interventions. RESULTS: Among 8492 initially identified studies, 26 met the inclusion criteria (13 were case-control and 13 were cohort studies). These studies were published from 2001 to 2023 and assessed diverse cancer types in North America, Asia, Europe, and Australia. Except for breast cancer, there was a paucity of site-specific cancer studies. In the meta-analysis of 19 breast cancer studies, higher exposure to indoor (summary RR, 1.08; 95% CI 1.01-1.15) and outdoor (summary RR, 1.10; 95% CI, 1.04-1.15) LAN were associated with increased risk. After excluding one low-quality study, the results were unchanged. CONCLUSIONS: We found a positive association between LAN exposure and breast cancer risk in women. However, data are lacking for other cancer types, and further studies are required to better understand the role of LAN on cancer.

Defining and Understanding Diagnostic Delays Among Pancreatic Cancer Patients: A Retrospective Cohort Study.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Pancreatic cancer is a lethal cancer of increasing incidence, presenting with several clinically detectable signals allowing for earlier diagnosis. However, there are limited data related to diagnostic process, including prevalence of diagnostic delays and their contributing factors. We aimed to develop a standardized definition of diagnostic delay, evaluate its prevalence, and identify its contributing factors among pancreatic cancer patients. METHODS: We convened an expert panel who defined diagnostic delay among pancreatic cancer patients. We then conducted a retrospective cohort study among pancreatic adenocarcinoma patients consecutively diagnosed from 2007 to 2019 at a tertiary care Veterans Affairs medical center. We manually reviewed diagnostic delay instances for contributing factors. Secondary analyses, using multivariate logistic regression and Cox proportional hazards models, explored associations between diagnostic delays and cancer outcomes. RESULTS: Diagnostic delay was defined as cancer diagnosis made ≥60 days after first clinical presence of predefined red flag(s). Among 197 pancreatic adenocarcinoma patients, 38.6% experienced a diagnostic delay. Among delay cases, the most common primary contributing factor was related to the patient-provider encounter (44.7% with lack of recognition of objective weight loss). Patients with delays were more likely to be diagnosed at advanced stage disease (adjusted odds ratio, 1.62; 95% confidence interval, 0.79-3.30) and less likely to receive potentially curative treatment (adjusted odds ratio, 0.72; 95% confidence interval, 0.28-1.84), although these trends did not reach statistical significance. CONCLUSIONS: Over one-third of pancreatic cancer patients experienced a diagnostic delay, mostly due to inadequate recognition of red flag findings. Results can inform targeted interventions to reduce preventable diagnostic delays among pancreatic cancer patients.

HES V2.0 outperforms GALAD for detection of HCC: A phase 3 biomarker study in the United States.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: The original hepatocellular carcinoma early detection screening (HES) score, which combines alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) with age, alanine aminotransferase, and platelets, has better performance than AFP alone for early HCC detection. We have developed HES V2.0 by adding AFP-L3 and des-gamma-carboxy prothrombin to the score and compared its performance to GALAD and ASAP scores among patients with cirrhosis. APPROACH AND RESULTS: We conducted a prospective-specimen collection, retrospective-blinded-evaluation phase 3 biomarker cohort study in patients with cirrhosis enrolled in imaging and AFP surveillance. True-positive rate (TPR)/sensitivity and false-positive rate for any or early HCC were calculated for GALAD, ASAP, and HES V2.0 scores within 6, 12, and 24 months of HCC diagnosis. We calculated the AUROC curve and estimated TPR based on an optimal threshold at a fixed false-positive rate of 10%. We analyzed 2331 patients, of whom 125 developed HCC (71% in the early stages). For any HCC, HES V2.0 had higher TPR than GALAD overall (+7.2%), at 6 months (+3.6%), at 12 months (+7.2%), and 24 months (+13.0%) before HCC diagnosis. HES V2.0 had higher TPR than ASAP for all time points (+5.9% to +12.0%). For early HCC, HES V2.0 had higher sensitivity/TPR than GALAD overall (+6.7%), at 12 months (+6.3%), and 24 months (+14.6%) but not at 6 months (+0.0%) and higher than ASAP for all time points (+13.4% to +18.0%). CONCLUSIONS: In a prospective cohort study, HES V2.0 had a significantly higher performance for identifying new HCC, including early stage, than GALAD or ASAP.

PNPLA3, Obesity, and Heavy Alcohol Use in Cirrhosis Patients May Exert a Synergistic Increase Hepatocellular Carcinoma Risk.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: In patients with cirrhosis, continued heavy alcohol consumption and obesity may increase risk of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). We examined whether germline susceptibility to hepatic steatosis not only independently predisposes to HCC but may also act synergistically with other risk factors. METHODS: We analyzed data from 1911 patients in 2 multicenter prospective cohort studies in the United States. We classified patients according to alcohol consumption (current heavy vs not current heavy), obesity (body mass index ≥30 vs <30 kg/m2), and PNPLA3 I148M variant status (carrier of at least one G risk allele vs noncarrier). We examined the independent and joint effects of these risk factors on risk of developing HCC using Cox regression with competing risks. RESULTS: Mean age was 59.6 years, 64.3% were male, 28.7% were Hispanic, 18.3% were non-Hispanic Black, 50.9% were obese, 6.2% had current heavy alcohol consumption, and 58.4% harbored at least 1 PNPLA3 G-allele. One hundred sixteen patients developed HCC. Compared with PNPLA3 noncarriers without heavy alcohol consumption, HCC risk was 2.65-fold higher (hazard ratio [HR], 2.65; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.20-5.86) for carriers who had current heavy alcohol consumption. Compared with noncarrier patients without obesity, HCC risk was higher (HR, 2.40; 95% CI, 1.33-4.31) for carrier patients who were obese. PNPLA3 and alcohol consumption effect was stronger among patients with viral etiology of cirrhosis (HR, 3.42; 95% CI, 1.31-8.90). PNPLA3 improved 1-year risk prediction for HCC when added to a clinical risk model. CONCLUSIONS: The PNPLA3 variant may help refine risk stratification for HCC in patients with cirrhosis with heavy alcohol consumption or obesity who may need specific preventive measures.

An Electronic Health Record Model for Predicting Risk of Hepatic Fibrosis in Primary Care Patients.

BACKGROUND: One challenge for primary care providers caring for patients with nonalcoholic fatty liver disease is to identify those at the highest risk for clinically significant liver disease. AIM: To derive a risk stratification tool using variables from structured electronic health record (EHR) data for use in populations which are disproportionately affected with obesity and diabetes. METHODS: We used data from 344 participants who underwent Fibroscan examination to measure liver fat and liver stiffness measurement [LSM]. Using two approaches, multivariable logistic regression and random forest classification, we assessed risk factors for any hepatic fibrosis (LSM > 7 kPa) and significant hepatic fibrosis (> 8 kPa). Possible predictors included data from the EHR for age, gender, diabetes, hypertension, FIB-4, body mass index (BMI), LDL, HDL, and triglycerides. RESULTS: Of 344 patients (56.4% women), 34 had any hepatic fibrosis, and 15 significant hepatic fibrosis. Three variables (BMI, FIB-4, diabetes) were identified from both approaches. When we used variable cut-offs defined by Youden's index, the final model predicting any hepatic fibrosis had an AUC of 0.75 (95% CI 0.67-0.84), NPV of 91.5% and PPV of 40.0%. The final model with variable categories based on standard clinical thresholds (i.e., BMI ≥ 30 kg/m2; FIB-4 ≥ 1.45) had lower discriminatory ability (AUC 0.65), but higher PPV (50.0%) and similar NPV (91.3%). We observed similar findings for predicting significant hepatic fibrosis. CONCLUSIONS: Our results demonstrate that standard thresholds for clinical risk factors/biomarkers may need to be modified for greater discriminatory ability among populations with high prevalence of obesity and diabetes.

Hepatocellular and extrahepatic cancer risk in people with non-alcoholic fatty liver disease.

Non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) is the most common chronic liver disease worldwide. Much of the recognised health-care burden occurs in the minority of people with NAFLD who progress towards cirrhosis and require specialist follow-up, including risk stratification and hepatocellular carcinoma surveillance. NAFLD is projected to become the leading global cause of cirrhosis and hepatocellular carcinoma, but the frequency of non-cirrhotic hepatocellular carcinoma provides a challenge to existing surveillance strategies. Deaths from extrahepatic cancers far exceed those from hepatocellular carcinoma in NAFLD. Unlike hepatocellular carcinoma, the increased extrahepatic cancer risk in NAFLD is not dependent on liver fibrosis stage. Given that almost 30% of the world's adult population has NAFLD, extrahepatic cancer could represent a substantial health and economic issue. In this Review, we discuss current knowledge and controversies regarding hepatocellular carcinoma risk stratification and surveillance practices in people with NAFLD. We also assess the associations of extrahepatic cancers with NAFLD and their relevance both in the clinic and the wider community.

The Impact of Race on Pancreatic Cancer Treatment and Survival in the Nationwide Veterans Affairs Healthcare System.

OBJECTIVES: Among patients with pancreatic cancer, studies show racial disparities at multiple steps of the cancer care pathway. Access to healthcare is a frequently cited cause of these disparities. It remains unclear if racial disparities exist in an integrated, equal access public system such as the Veterans Affairs healthcare system. METHODS: We identified all patients diagnosed with pancreatic adenocarcinoma in the national Veterans Affairs Central Cancer Registry from January 2010 to December 2018. We examined the independent association between race and 3 endpoints: stage at diagnosis, receipt of treatment, and survival while adjusting for sociodemographic factors and medical comorbidities. RESULTS: We identified 8529 patients with pancreatic adenocarcinoma, of whom 79.5% were White and 20.5% were Black. Black patients were 19% more likely to have late-stage disease and 25% less likely to undergo surgical resection. Black patients had 13% higher mortality risk compared with White patients after adjusting for sociodemographic characteristics and medical comorbidities. This difference in mortality was no longer statistically significant after additionally adjusting for cancer stage and receipt of potentially curative treatment. CONCLUSIONS: Equal access to healthcare might have reduced but failed to eliminate disparities. Dedicated efforts are needed to understand reasons underlying these disparities in an attempt to close these persistent gaps.

Improving Adherence to Clinical Practice Guidelines for Managing Gastric Intestinal Metaplasia Among Gastroenterologists at a US Academic Institution.

BACKGROUND: Clinical guidelines reserve endoscopic surveillance after a gastric intestinal metaplasia (GIM) diagnosis for high-risk patients. However, it is unclear how closely guidelines are followed in clinical practice. We examined the effectiveness of a standardized protocol for the management of GIM among gastroenterologists at a US hospital. METHODS: This was a preintervention and postintervention study, which included developing a protocol and education of gastroenterologists on GIM management. For the preintervention study, 50 patients with GIM were randomly selected from a histopathology database at the Houston VA Hospital between January 2016 and December 2019. For the postintervention study, we assessed change in GIM management in a cohort of 50 patients with GIM between April 2020 and January 2021 and surveyed 10 gastroenterologists. The durability of the intervention was assessed in a cohort of 50 GIM patients diagnosed between April 2021 and July 2021. RESULTS: In the preintervention cohort, GIM location was specified (antrum and corpus separated) in 11 patients (22%), and Helicobacter pylori testing was recommended in 11 of 26 patients (42%) without previous testing. Gastric mapping biopsies were recommended in 14% and surveillance endoscopy in 2%. In the postintervention cohort, gastric biopsy location was specified in 45 patients (90%, P <0.001) and H. pylori testing was recommended in 26 of 27 patients without prior testing (96%, P <0.001). Because gastric biopsy location was known in 90% of patients ( P <0.001), gastric mapping was not necessary, and surveillance endoscopy was recommended in 42% ( P <0.001). One year after the intervention, all metrics remained elevated compared with the preintervention cohort. CONCLUSIONS: GIM management guidelines are not consistently followed. A protocol for GIM management and education of gastroenterologists increased adherence to H. pylori testing and GIM surveillance recommendations.

Evolving Concepts in Helicobacter pylori Management.

Helicobacter pylori is the most common chronic bacterial infection worldwide and the most significant risk factor for gastric cancer, which remains a leading cause of cancer-related death globally. H pylori and gastric cancer continue to disproportionately impact racial and ethnic minority and immigrant groups in the United States. The approach to H pylori case-finding thus far has relied on opportunistic testing based on symptoms or high-risk indicators, such as racial or ethnic background and family history. However, this approach misses a substantial proportion of individuals infected with H pylori who remain at risk for gastric cancer because most infections remain clinically silent. Moreover, individuals with chronic H pylori infection are at risk for gastric preneoplastic lesions, which are also asymptomatic and only reliably diagnosed using endoscopy and biopsy. Thus, to make a significant impact in gastric cancer prevention, a systematic approach is needed to better identify individuals at highest risk of both H pylori infection and its complications, including gastric preneoplasia and cancer. The approach to H pylori eradication must also be optimized given sharply decreasing rates of successful eradication with commonly used therapies and increasing antimicrobial resistance. With growing acceptance that H pylori should be managed as an infectious disease and the increasing availability of susceptibility testing, we now have the momentum to abandon empirical therapies demonstrated to have inadequate eradication rates. Molecular-based susceptibility profiling facilitates selection of a personalized eradication regimen without necessitating an invasive procedure. An improved approach to H pylori eradication coupled with population-level programs for screening and treatment could be an effective and efficient strategy to prevent gastric cancer, especially in minority and potentially marginalized populations that bear the heaviest burden of H pylori infection and its complications.

Recent Trends in the Incidence of Gastric Cancer in the United States.

BACKGROUND: Gastric cancer (GC) incidence rates overall in the United States have declined over recent decades and are predicted to continue declining. However, there have been mixed recent findings regarding the potential stabilization of rates and potential divergent trends by age group. We used the most recent cancer data for the United States and examined trends in GC between 1992 and 2019, overall and in important subgroups of the population. METHODS: Age-adjusted GC incidence rates and trends in adults 20 years or older were calculated using data from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) 12 program. Secular trends were examined overall and by age group, sex, race/ethnicity, SEER registry, and tumor location. We used joinpoint regression to compute annual percent changes, average annual percent changes, and associated 95% CI. RESULTS: GC rates decreased by 1.23% annually from 1992 to 2019. Despite overall decreases, GC incidence rates increased for age groups below 50 years, predominately driven by noncardia GC (74.3% of all GCs). Cardia GC (26.7% of GC) rates decreased in all age groups except for 80 to 84 years. Overall GC rates decreased for both sexes, all races, and for all SEER registry regions, with the largest decreases occurring in males, Asians and Pacific Islanders, and in Hawaii. Age-period-cohort analysis revealed that birth cohorts before 1940 and after 1980 both had increased rates of GC compared with the reference birth cohort of 1955. CONCLUSION: GC rates overall have continued to decline through 2019, despite increases in the rate of noncardia GC for younger age groups.

Concurrence of inflammatory bowel disease with multiple sclerosis or Hodgkin lymphoma.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Epidemiologic evidence suggests that Hodgkin lymphoma (HL) and multiple sclerosis (MS) share a common set of risk factors with Crohn's disease (CD) and ulcerative colitis (UC). It was hypothesized that such shared risk factors would lead to clustering of the 4 diagnoses in the same patients. METHODS: All patients with HL, MS, CD, or UC were identified in the veterans population from 2016-2020 and the Medicare population from 1986 to 1989. In a case-control study, the observed concurrences amongst these 4 diagnoses were compared with their expected frequencies in the overall veterans or Medicare population during the same time period by calculating odds ratios (OR) with their 95% confidence intervals (CI). RESULTS: The study included 6 million veterans and 35 million Medicare patients. In the veterans population, inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) was significantly associated with a concurrent diagnosis of HL (OR: 1.40, 95% CI: 1.15-1.71) and MS (1.34, 1.19-1.50). In the Medicare population, IBD was also significantly associated with HL (1.84, 1.07-3.17) and MS (2.31, 1.59-3.35). Similar trends were observed in CD or UC when analyzed separately in both datasets. In the veterans population, adjustment for the potentially confounding influence of ethnicity, sex, and age left all OR values largely unaffected and statistically significant. CONCLUSION: The concurrence of IBD with HL or MS could reflect on a common pathway in the etiology or pathogenesis of these 4 diseases.

Gastric Cancer Risk in Patients with Long-Term Use of Proton Pump Inhibitors: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis of Observational and Interventional Studies.

BACKGROUND: A growing number of studies that differ in design, quality, and results report an association between the use of proton pump inhibitors (PPIs) and the risk of gastric cancer (GC). We conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis, when possible, of observational and interventional studies examining PPI use and risk of GC. METHODS: We followed the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses guidelines. We identified studies fully published in English through January 2023 using MeSH and non-MeSH keywords. We used random effects models to calculate pooled risk estimates with 95% confidence interval (CI) between PPI use and overall GC, cardia GC, and non-cardia GC. We estimated heterogeneity (I2) among studies. We examined the effect of study design and quality, GC site, H. pylori infection, and PPI duration. We assessed quality using the Newcastle-Ottawa Quality Assessment Scale and Risk Of Bias In Non-randomized Studies of Interventions. RESULTS: We identified 15 observational studies, of which 13 were included in the meta-analysis (six cohort and seven case-control). There was a modest 1.67-fold increase in overall GC risk (95% CI 1.39, 2.00) and no increase in cardia GC risk [odds ratio (OR) 1.12; 95% CI 0.80, 1.56] with PPI use. However, there was high heterogeneity (I2 = 61.3%, p = 0.004) among studies. All but one study had at least moderate risk of bias. In the six studies accounting for H. pylori, GC risk associated with PPI use increased slightly (OR 1.78; 95% CI 1.25, 2.52). Duration response was not reported consistently to allow pooled estimates. We identified only one interventional randomized controlled study that included GC as an outcome of interest, and it did not show increased GC risk. CONCLUSIONS: The overall available evidence is not supportive of a meaningful change in GC risk, either cardia or non-cardia, with PPI use.

Risk Stratification Model for Hepatocellular Cancer in Patients With Cirrhosis.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: The available risk stratification indices for hepatocellular cancer (HCC) have limited applicability. We developed and externally validated an HCC risk stratification index in U.S. cohorts of patients with cirrhosis. METHODS: We used data from 2 prospective U.S. cohorts to develop the risk index. Patients with cirrhosis were enrolled from 8 centers and followed until development of HCC, death, or December 31, 2021. We identified an optimal set of predictors with the highest discriminatory ability (C-index) for HCC. The predictors were refit using competing risk regression and its predictive performance was evaluated using the area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve (AUROC). External validation was performed in a cohort of 21,550 patients with cirrhosis seen in the U.S Veterans Affairs system between 2018 and 2019 with follow-up through 2021. RESULTS: We developed the model in 2431 patients (mean age 60 years, 31% women, 24% cured hepatitis C, 16% alcoholic liver disease, and 29% nonalcoholic fatty liver disease). The selected model had a C-index of 0.77 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.73-0.81), and the predictors were age, sex, smoking, alcohol use, body mass index, etiology, α-fetoprotein, albumin, alanine aminotransferase, and platelet levels. The AUROCs were 0.75 (95% CI, 0.65-0.85) at 1 year and 0.77 (95% CI, 0.71-0.83) at 2 years, and the model was well calibrated. In the external validation cohort, the AUROC at 2 years was 0.70 with excellent calibration. CONCLUSION: The risk index, including objective and routinely available risk factors, can differentiate patients with cirrhosis who will develop HCC and help guide discussions regarding HCC surveillance and prevention. Future studies are needed for additional external validation and refinement of risk stratification.

Validation of a pre-endoscopy risk score for predicting the presence of gastric intestinal metaplasia in a U.S. population.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Surveillance of gastric intestinal metaplasia (GIM) may lead to early gastric cancer detection. Our purpose was to externally validate a predictive model for endoscopic GIM previously developed in a veteran population in a second U.S. METHODS: We previously developed a pre-endoscopy risk model for detection of GIM using 423 GIM cases and 1796 control subjects from the Houston Veterans Affairs Hospital. The model included sex, age, race/ethnicity, smoking, and Helicobacter pylori infection with an area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve (AUROC) of .73 for GIM and .82 for extensive GIM. We validated this model in a second cohort of patients from 6 Catholic Health Initiative (CHI)-St Luke's hospitals (Houston, Tex, USA) from January to December 2017. Cases were defined as having GIM on any gastric biopsy sample and extensive GIM as involving both the antrum and corpus. We further optimized the model by pooling both cohorts and assessing discrimination using AUROC. RESULTS: The risk model was validated in 215 GIM cases (55 with extensive GIM) and 2469 control subjects. Cases were older than control subjects (59.8 vs 54.7 years) with more nonwhites (59.1% vs 42.0%) and H pylori infections (23.7% vs 10.9%). The model applied to the CHI-St Luke's cohort had an AUROC of .62 (95% confidence interval [CI], .57-.66) for predicting GIM and of .71 (95% CI, .63-.79) for predicting extensive GIM. When the Veterans Affairs and CHI-St Luke's cohorts were pooled, discrimination of both models improved (GIM vs extensive GIM AUROC: .74 vs .82). CONCLUSIONS: A pre-endoscopy risk prediction model was validated and updated using a second U.S. cohort with robust discrimination for endoscopic GIM. This model should be evaluated in other U.S. populations to risk-stratify patients for endoscopic GIM screening.

Prevention of Hepatocellular Carcinoma (HCC). White Paper of the Texas Collaborative Center for Hepatocellular Cancer (TeCH) Multi-stakeholder Conference.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Texas has the highest age-adjusted incidence rate of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in the United States. The Cancer Prevention and Research Institute of Texas has funded the Texas Collaborative Center for Hepatocellular Cancer (TeCH) to facilitate HCC research, education, and advocacy activities with the overall goal of reducing HCC mortality in Texas through coordination, collaboration, and advocacy. METHODS: On September 17, 2022, TeCH co-sponsored a multi-stakeholder conference on HCC with the Baker Institute Center for Health and Biosciences. This conference was attended by HCC researchers, policy makers, payers, members from pharmaceutical industry and patient advocacy groups in and outside of Texas. This report summarizes the results of the conference. RESULTS: The goal of this meeting was to identify different strategies for preventing HCC and evaluate their readiness for implementation. CONCLUSIONS: We call for a statewide (1) viral hepatitis elimination program; (2) program to increase nonalcoholic steatohepatitis and obesity awareness; (3) research program to develop health care models that integrate alcohol associated liver disease treatment and treatment for alcohol use disorder; and (4) demonstration projects to evaluate the effectiveness of identifying and linking patient with advanced fibrosis and cirrhosis to clinical care.

The Association between Caffeine Intake and the Colonic Mucosa-Associated Gut Microbiota in Humans-A Preliminary Investigation.

We examined the association between caffeine and coffee intake and the community composition and structure of colonic microbiota. A total of 34 polyp-free adults donated 97 colonic biopsies. Microbial DNA was sequenced for the 16S rRNA gene V4 region. The amplicon sequence variant was assigned using DADA2 and SILVA. Food consumption was ascertained using a food frequency questionnaire. We compared the relative abundance of taxonomies by low (<82.9 mg) vs. high (≥82.9 mg) caffeine intake and by never or <2 cups vs. 2 cups vs. ≥3 cups coffee intake. False discovery rate-adjusted p values (q values) <0.05 indicated statistical significance. Multivariable negative binomial regression models were used to estimate the incidence rate ratio and its 95% confidence interval of having a non-zero count of certain bacteria by intake level. Higher caffeine and coffee intake was related to higher alpha diversity (Shannon index p < 0.001), higher relative abundance of Faecalibacterium and Alistipes, and lower relative abundance of Erysipelatoclostridium (q values < 0.05). After adjustment of vitamin B2 in multivariate analysis, the significant inverse association between Erysipelatoclostridium count and caffeine intake remained statistically significant. Our preliminary study could not evaluate other prebiotics in coffee.

Nonalcoholic steatohepatitis-related hepatocellular carcinoma: pathogenesis and treatment.

Nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD), including its more severe manifestation, nonalcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH), has a global prevalence of 20-25% and is a major public health problem. Its incidence is increasing in parallel to the rise in obesity, diabetes and metabolic syndrome. Progression from NASH to NASH-related hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) (~2% of cases per year) is influenced by many factors, including the tissue and immune microenvironment, germline mutations in PNPLA3, and the microbiome. NASH-HCC has unique molecular and immune traits compared with other aetiologies of HCC and is equally prevalent in men and women. Comorbidities associated with NASH, such as obesity and diabetes mellitus, can prevent the implementation of potentially curative therapies in certain patients; nonetheless, outcomes are similar in patients who receive treatment. NASH-HCC at the early to intermediate stages is managed with surgery and locoregional therapies, whereas advanced HCC is treated with systemic therapies, including anti-angiogenic therapies and immune-checkpoint inhibitors. In this Review, we present the latest knowledge of the pathogenic mechanisms and clinical management of NASH-HCC. We discuss data highlighting the controversy over varying responses to immune-checkpoint inhibitors according to underlying aetiology and suggest that the future of NASH-HCC management lies in improved surveillance, targeted combination therapies to overcome immune evasion, and identifying biomarkers to recognize treatment responders.

Global burden of gastric cancer: epidemiological trends, risk factors, screening and prevention.

Gastric cancer remains a major cause of cancer-related mortality worldwide. The temporal trends for this malignancy, however, are dynamic, and reports from the past decade indicate important declines in some regions and demographic groups, as well as a few notable exceptions in which gastric cancer rates are either stable or increasing. Two main anatomical subtypes of gastric cancer exist, non-cardia and cardia, with different temporal trends and risk factors (such as obesity and reflux for cardia gastric cancer and Helicobacter pylori infection for non-cardia gastric cancer). Shifts in the distribution of anatomical locations have been detected in several high-incidence regions. H. pylori is an important aetiological factor for gastric cancer; importantly, the anticipated long-term findings from studies examining the effect of H. pylori eradication on the risk of (re)developing gastric cancer have emerged in the past few years. In this Review, we highlight the latest trends in incidence and mortality using an evidence-based approach. We make the best possible inferences, including clinical and public health inference, on the basis of the quality of the evidence available, and highlight burning questions as well as gaps in knowledge and public health practice that need to be addressed to reduce gastric cancer burden worldwide.