Temporal Trends in Noncardiovascular Morbidity and Mortality Following Acute Myocardial Infarction.

BACKGROUND: Due to improved management, diagnosis, and care of myocardial infarction (MI), patients may now survive long enough to increasingly develop serious noncardiovascular conditions. OBJECTIVES: This study aimed to test this hypothesis by investigating the temporal trends in noncardiovascular morbidity and mortality following MI. METHODS: We conducted a registry-based nationwide cohort study of all Danish patients with MI during 2000 to 2017. Outcomes were cardiovascular and noncardiovascular mortality, incident cancer, incident renal disease, and severe infectious disease. RESULTS: From 2000 to 2017, 136,293 consecutive patients were identified (63.2% men, median age 69 years). The 1-year risk of cardiovascular mortality between 2000 to 2002 and 2015 to 2017 decreased from 18.4% to 7.6%, whereas noncardiovascular mortality decreased from 5.8% to 5.0%. This corresponded to an increase in the proportion of total 1-year mortality attributed to noncardiovascular causes from 24.1% to 39.5%. Furthermore, increases in 1-year risk of incident cancer (1.9%-2.4%), incident renal disease (1.0%-1.6%), and infectious disease (5.5%-9.1%) were observed (all P trend <0.01). In analyses standardized for changes in patient characteristics, the increased risk of cancer in 2015 to 2017 compared with 2000 to 2002 was no longer significant (standardized risk ratios for cancer: 0.99 [95% CI: 0.91-1.07]; renal disease: 1.28 [95% CI: 1.15-1.41]; infectious disease: 1.28 [95% CI: 1.23-1.34]). CONCLUSIONS: Although cardiovascular mortality following MI improved substantially during 2000 to 2017, the risk of noncardiovascular morbidity increased. Moreover, noncardiovascular causes constitute an increasing proportion of post-MI mortality. These findings suggest that further attention on noncardiovascular outcomes is warranted in guidelines and clinical practice and should be considered in the design of future clinical trials.

High risk of rehospitalization within one year following a pulmonary embolism-Insights from the Danish nationwide registries from 2000-2020.

AIM: To identify the absolute risk, causes and factors associated with rehospitalization within 1 year of discharge with a pulmonary embolism (PE). METHODS AND RESULTS: Using the Danish nationwide registries, all patients admitted with a first-time PE between 2000 and 2020 and discharged alive were included. Subsequent hospitalizations were categorized and crude cumulative incidences, were used to estimate the absolute risk (AR) of any rehospitalization and specific causes of rehospitalizations. Risk factors for rehospitalization were investigated using cause specific Cox regression models.A total of 55 201 patients were identified. The median age of the study population was 70 years (inter quartile range: 59;79), and the most prevalent comorbidities were cancer (29.3%) and ischemic heart disease (12.7%). The 1-year AR of any rehospitalization after discharge with a PE was 48.6% (95% confidence interval (CI); 48.2%-48.8%). The most common cause for being rehospitalized was due to respiratory disease (1-year AR: 9.5% (95% CI: 9.3%-9.8%)), followed by cardiovascular disease (1-year AR: 6.3% (95% CI: 5.9%-6.5%)), cancer (1-year AR: 6.0% (95% CI: 5.8%-6.4%)), venous thromboembolism (1-year AR: 5.2% (95% CI: 5.0%-5.2%)), and symptom diagnoses (1-year AR: 5.2% (95%CI: 5.0%-5.4%)). Factors that were associated with an increased risk of rehospitalization were cancer, liver disease, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, chronic kidney disease, and immobilization. CONCLUSION: Patients with PE have a high risk of rehospitalization, with almost half of patients being rehospitalized within 1 year. Identification of high-risk patients may help target interventions aiming at reducing the risk of rehospitalization.

Lifetime risk of comorbidity in patients with simple congenital heart disease: a Danish nationwide study.

AIMS: In a continuously ageing population of patients with congenital heart disease (CHD), understanding the long-term risk of morbidity is crucial. The aim of this study was to compare the lifetime risks of developing comorbidities in patients with simple CHD and matched controls. METHODS AND RESULTS: Using the Danish nationwide registers spanning from 1977 to 2018, simple CHD cases were defined as isolated atrial septal defect (ASD), ventricular septal defect (VSD), pulmonary stenosis, or patent ductus arteriosus in patients surviving until at least 5 years of age. There were 10 controls identified per case. Reported were absolute lifetime risks and lifetime risk differences (between patients with simple CHD and controls) of incident comorbidities stratified by groups and specific cardiovascular comorbidities. Of the included 17 157 individuals with simple CHD, the largest subgroups were ASD (37.7%) and VSD (33.9%), and 52% were females. The median follow-up time for patients with CHD was 21.2 years (interquartile range: 9.4-39.0) and for controls, 19.8 years (9.0-37.0). The lifetime risks for the investigated comorbidities were higher and appeared overall at younger ages for simple CHD compared with controls, except for neoplasms and chronic kidney disease. The lifetime risk difference among the comorbidity groups was highest for neurological disease (male: 15.2%, female: 11.3%), pulmonary disease (male: 9.1%, female: 11.7%), and among the specific comorbidities for stroke (male: 18.9%, female: 11.4%). The overall risk of stroke in patients with simple CHD was mainly driven by ASD (male: 28.9%, female: 17.5%), while the risks of myocardial infarction and heart failure were driven by VSD. The associated lifetime risks of stroke, myocardial infarction, and heart failure in both sexes were smaller in invasively treated patients compared with untreated patients with simple CHD. CONCLUSION: Patients with simple CHD had increased lifetime risks of all comorbidities compared with matched controls, except for neoplasms and chronic kidney disease. These findings highlight the need for increased attention towards early management of comorbidity risk factors.

Prediction of first cardiovascular disease event in 2.9 million individuals using Danish administrative healthcare data: a nationwide, registry-based derivation and validation study.

Aims: The aim of this study was to derive and validate a risk prediction model with nationwide coverage to predict the individual and population-level risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD). Methods and results: All 2.98 million Danish residents aged 30-85 years free of CVD were included on 1 January 2014 and followed through 31 December 2018 using nationwide administrative healthcare registries. Model predictors and outcome were pre-specified. Predictors were age, sex, education, use of antithrombotic, blood pressure-lowering, glucose-lowering, or lipid-lowering drugs, and a smoking proxy of smoking-cessation drug use or chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. Outcome was 5-year risk of first CVD event, a combination of ischaemic heart disease, heart failure, peripheral artery disease, stroke, or cardiovascular death. Predictions were computed using cause-specific Cox regression models. The final model fitted in the full data was internally-externally validated in each Danish Region. The model was well-calibrated in all regions. Area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) and Brier scores ranged from 76.3% to 79.6% and 3.3 to 4.4. The model was superior to an age-sex benchmark model with differences in AUC and Brier scores ranging from 1.2% to 1.5% and -0.02 to -0.03. Average predicted risks in each Danish municipality ranged from 2.8% to 5.9%. Predicted risks for a 66-year old ranged from 2.6% to 25.3%. Personalized predicted risks across ages 30-85 were presented in an online calculator (https://hjerteforeningen.shinyapps.io/cvd-risk-manuscript/). Conclusion: A CVD risk prediction model based solely on nationwide administrative registry data provided accurate prediction of personal and population-level 5-year first CVD event risk in the Danish population. This may inform clinical and public health primary prevention efforts.