Time-to-event estimands and loss to follow-up in oncology in light of the estimands guidance.

Time-to-event estimands are central to many oncology clinical trials. The estimands framework (addendum to the ICH E9 guideline) calls for precisely defining the treatment effect of interest to align with the clinical question of interest and requires predefining the handling of intercurrent events (ICEs) that occur after treatment initiation and "affect either the interpretation or the existence of the measurements associated with the clinical question of interest." We discuss a practical problem in clinical trial design and execution, that is, in some clinical contexts it is not feasible to systematically follow patients to an event of interest. Loss to follow-up in the presence of intercurrent events can affect the meaning and interpretation of the study results. We provide recommendations for trial design, stressing the need for close alignment of the clinical question of interest and study design, impact on data collection, and other practical implications. When patients cannot be systematically followed, compromise may be necessary to select the best available estimand that can be feasibly estimated under the circumstances. We discuss the use of sensitivity and supplementary analyses to examine assumptions of interest.

Defining estimands for efficacy assessment in single arm phase 1b or phase 2 clinical trials in oncology early development.

The addendum of the ICH E9 guideline on the statistical principles for clinical trials introduced the estimand framework. The framework is designed to strengthen the dialog between different stakeholders, to introduce greater clarity in the clinical trial objectives and to provide alignment between the estimand and statistical analysis. Estimand framework related publications thus far have mainly focused on randomized clinical trials. The intention of the Early Development Estimand Nexus (EDEN), a task force of the cross-industry Oncology Estimand Working Group (www.oncoestimand.org), is to apply it to single arms Phase 1b or Phase 2 trials designed to detect a treatment-related efficacy signal, typically measured by objective response rate. Key recommendations regarding the estimand attributes include that in a single arm early clinical trial, the treatment attribute should start when the first dose is received by the participant. Focusing on the estimation of an absolute effect, the population-level summary measure should reflect only the property used for the estimation. Another major component introduced in the ICH E9 addendum is the definition of intercurrent events and the associated possible ways to handle them. Different strategies reflect different clinical questions of interest that can be answered based on the journeys an individual subject can take during a trial. We provide detailed strategy recommendations for intercurrent events typically seen in early-stage oncology. We highlight where implicit assumptions should be made transparent as whenever follow-up is suspended, a while-on-treatment strategy is implied.

Association of Baseline and Pharmacodynamic Biomarkers With Outcomes in Patients Treated With the PD-1 Inhibitor Budigalimab.

Budigalimab, a novel anti-PD-1 monoclonal antibody, demonstrated efficacy and biomarker pharmacodynamics in patients with head and neck squamous cell carcinoma (HNSCC) or non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) consistent with those reported by other PD-1 inhibitors. Herein are presented additional outcomes of biomarker analyses from the phase 1 study of budigalimab monotherapy in patients with HNSCC and NSCLC (NCT03000257). PD-1 inhibitor naive patients with advanced HNSCC (n=41) or NSCLC (n=40) received budigalimab intravenously at 250 mg every 2 weeks (Q2W) or 500 mg Q4W until progression. Archival tumor specimens were evaluated by immunohistochemistry for CD8 and tumor PD-1 ligand 1 (PD-L1) expression, RNA, and whole-exome sequencing. Serum and whole blood samples were acquired at baseline and at select on-treatment time points. As of October 2019, best overall response of 15% in HNSCC and 18% in NSCLC was observed in all treated patients; both cohorts reported responses in PD-L1+ and PD-L1- tumors. Treatment with budigalimab was associated with increases in multiple soluble biomarkers including interferon gamma-induced chemokines. Expanded overall T-cell counts, total CD8 T-cell counts, and percentages of CD8+CD45RA-CD62L- effector memory T cells were observed at cycle 1, day 15 in responders. Univariate analysis demonstrated an association between prolonged progression-free survival and higher tumor mutational burden/neoantigen load, smaller tumor size, lower platelet-lymphocyte ratios, lower CCL23, lower colony-stimulating factor 1, and lower interleukin-6 levels at baseline. The biomarker analysis presented herein identified additional early pharmacodynamic biomarkers associated with anti-PD-1 activity and improved clinical responses to budigalimab in patients with advanced HNSCC and NSCLC.

First-in-human phase 1 study of budigalimab, an anti-PD-1 inhibitor, in patients with non-small cell lung cancer and head and neck squamous cell carcinoma.

BACKGROUND: Budigalimab is a humanized, recombinant immunoglobulin G1 monoclonal antibody targeting programmed cell death protein 1 (PD-1). We present the safety, efficacy, pharmacokinetic (PK), and pharmacodynamic data from patients enrolled in the head and neck squamous cell carcinoma (HNSCC) and non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) expansion cohorts of the phase 1 first-in-human study of budigalimab monotherapy (NCT03000257; registered 15 December 2016). PATIENTS AND METHODS: Patients with recurrent/metastatic HNSCC or locally advanced/metastatic NSCLC naive to PD-1/PD-1-ligand inhibitors were enrolled; patients were not selected on the basis of oncogene driver mutations or PD-L1 status. Budigalimab was administered at 250 mg intravenously Q2W or 500 mg intravenously Q4W until disease progression/unacceptable toxicity. The primary endpoints were safety and PK; the secondary endpoint was efficacy. Exploratory endpoints included biomarker assessments. RESULTS: In total, 81 patients were enrolled (HNSCC: N = 41 [PD-L1 positive: n = 19]; NSCLC: N = 40 [PD-L1 positive: n = 16]); median treatment duration was 72 days (range, 1-617) and 71 days (range, 1-490) for the HNSCC and NSCLC cohorts, respectively. The most frequent grade ≥ 3 treatment-emergent adverse event was anemia (HNSCC: n = 9, 22%; NSCLC: n = 5, 13%). Both dosing regimens had comparable drug exposure and increased interferon gamma-induced chemokines, monokine induced by gamma interferon, and interferon-gamma-inducible protein 10. Objective response rates were 13% (90% CI, 5.1-24.5) in the HNSCC cohort and 19% (90% CI, 9.2-32.6) in the NSCLC cohort. Median progression-free survival was 3.6 months (95% CI, 1.7-4.7) and 1.9 months (95% CI, 1.7-3.7) in the HNSCC and NSCLC cohorts. CONCLUSIONS: The safety, efficacy and biomarker profiles of budigalimab are similar to other PD-1 inhibitors. Development of budigalimab in combination with novel anticancer agents is ongoing.

Safety, pharmacokinetics, and efficacy of budigalimab with rovalpituzumab tesirine in patients with small cell lung cancer.

BACKGROUND: Agents targeting programmed cell death protein 1 (PD-1) have been approved as monotherapy for patients with small cell lung cancer (SCLC). In preclinical models, the combined targeting of PD-1 and delta-like protein 3 resulted in enhanced antitumor activity. Herein, we report results from the expansion arm of study NCT03000257 evaluating the combination of the anti-PD-1 antibody budigalimab and the targeted antibody-drug conjugate rovalpituzumab tesirine (Rova-T) in patients with previously treated SCLC. MATERIALS AND METHODS: This expansion arm of a multicenter, open-label, multi-arm, first-in-human phase 1 clinical trial enrolled adult patients with progressive SCLC. The primary objective was to assess safety and tolerability. Patients received budigalimab 375 mg via intravenous infusion every 3 weeks, and Rova-T was administered as a dose of 0.3 mg/kg intravenously, on day 1 of the first and third 3-week cycle. RESULTS: As of October 2019, 31 patients with SCLC were enrolled and treated with budigalimab plus Rova-T. The combination was tolerated, with the most common treatment-emergent adverse events (in >30%) being pleural effusion, fatigue, and cough. The overall response rate was 24.1%, with one confirmed complete response and six confirmed partial responses. The overall response rate in patients with high delta-like protein 3 expression was similar (21.1%). The median progression-free survival was 3.48 months. CONCLUSION: Combination therapy with budigalimab and Rova-T had promising efficacy and appeared to be tolerated in patients with SCLC. Although Rova-T development has been discontinued, development of budigalimab combined with other anticancer agents is ongoing. CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: NCT03000257 Statement on originality of the work The manuscript represents original work and has not been submitted for publication elsewhere nor previously published. Statement of prior presentation Data from this study were previously presented at the European Society for Medical Oncology (ESMO) Congress 2019.

Model Informed Dosing Regimen and Phase I Results of the Anti-PD-1 Antibody Budigalimab (ABBV-181).

Budigalimab is a humanized, recombinant, Fc mutated IgG1 monoclonal antibody targeting programmed cell death 1 (PD-1) receptor, currently in phase I clinical trials. The safety, efficacy, pharmacokinetics (PKs), pharmacodynamics (PDs), and budigalimab dose selection from monotherapy dose escalation and multihistology expansion cohorts were evaluated in patients with previously treated advanced solid tumors who received budigalimab at 1, 3, or 10 mg/kg intravenously every 2 weeks (Q2W) in dose escalation, including Japanese patients that received 3 and 10 mg/kg Q2W. PK modeling and PK/PD assessments informed the dosing regimen in expansion phase using data from body-weight-based dosing in the escalation phase, based on which patients in the multihistology expansion cohort received flat doses of 250 mg Q2W or 500 mg every four weeks (Q4W). Immune-related adverse events (AEs) were reported in 11 of 59 patients (18.6%), of which 1 of 59 (1.7%) was considered grade ≥ 3 and the safety profile of budigalimab was consistent with other PD-1 targeting agents. No treatment-related grade 5 AEs were reported. Four responses per Response Evaluation Criteria in Solid Tumors (RECIST) version 1.1 were reported in the dose escalation cohort and none in the multihistology expansion cohort. PK of budigalimab was approximately dose proportional and sustained > 99% peripheral PD-1 receptor saturation was observed by 2 hours postdosing, across doses. PK/PD and safety profiles were comparable between Japanese and Western patients, and exposure-safety analyses did not indicate any trends. Observed PK and PD-1 receptor saturation were consistent with model predictions for flat doses and less frequent regimens, validating the early application of PK modeling and PK/PD assessments to inform the recommended dose and regimen, following dose escalation.

Assessing the Impact of COVID-19 on the Clinical Trial Objective and Analysis of Oncology Clinical Trials-Application of the Estimand Framework.

Abstract-Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) outbreak has rapidly evolved into a global pandemic. The impact of COVID-19 on patient journeys in oncology represents a new risk to interpretation of trial results and its broad applicability for future clinical practice. We identify key intercurrent events (ICEs) that may occur due to COVID-19 in oncology clinical trials with a focus on time-to-event endpoints and discuss considerations pertaining to the other estimand attributes introduced in the ICH E9 addendum. We propose strategies to handle COVID-19 related ICEs, depending on their relationship with malignancy and treatment and the interpretability of data after them. We argue that the clinical trial objective from a world without COVID-19 pandemic remains valid. The estimand framework provides a common language to discuss the impact of COVID-19 in a structured and transparent manner. This demonstrates that the applicability of the framework may even go beyond what it was initially intended for.

Disseminated Tumor Cells in the Bone Marrow of Patients with Operable Primary Breast Cancer: Prognostic Impact in Immunophenotypic Subgroups and Clinical Implication for Bisphosphonate Treatment.

BACKGROUND: Disseminated tumor cells (DTC) in the bone marrow (BM) of primary breast cancer (BC) patients are a promising surrogate marker of micrometastatic spread and an independent predictor of poor prognosis for disease-free survival (DFS) and overall survival (OS). The present study aims to analyze DTCs as an independent prognostic factor for DFS/OS in tumor biology and bisphosphonate treatment. METHODS: A total of 504 patients with operable primary BC and a median observation time of 72.3 months [lower quartile (LQ) 58.1; upper quartile (UQ) 82.8] have been included. DTCs were detected via immunohistochemistry as MUC-1 positive cells in the BM of 59.13 % (298 of 504) of the patients. The immunophenotyping of cancer cells was achieved immunohistochemically as well. RESULTS: For luminal A/B carcinoma patients, we observed a significant benefit of BM DTC negativity with respect to DFS (luminal A, P = 0.0498; luminal B, P = 0.0224). In triple-negative patients, DTC-negative BM was associated with a longer OS (P = 0.0326). In a multivariate Cox survival analysis relating to DFS and OS, the DTC status was identified as an independent prognostic factor for DFS in luminal A/B BC (P = 0.0071). A multivariate Cox survival analysis among DTC-positive patients with luminal immunophenotype showed bisphosphonate application (P = 0.0326) to be an independent prognostic factor for DFS. CONCLUSIONS: The findings of our multivariate analyses reveal BM DTC positivity as an independent risk factor for DFS particularly in luminal A/B BC patients. This might be a novel criterion for the identification of candidates most likely to benefit from additional adjuvant therapy possibly including bisphosphonates.

Inflammation-adapted liver stiffness values for improved fibrosis staging in patients with hepatitis C virus and alcoholic liver disease.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: It is well known that inflammation increases liver stiffness (LS) in patients with chronic hepatitis C (HCV) and alcoholic liver disease (ALD) independent of fibrosis stage, but no inflammation-adapted cut-off values have been settled so far. An early identification of rapid fibrosers, however, is essential to decide whom to treat first with the novel but expensive antiviral drugs. METHODS: Liver stiffness, biopsy-proven fibrosis stages F0-F4 (METAVIR or Kleiner score) and routine laboratory parameters were studied in 2068 patients with HCV (n = 1391) and ALD (n = 677). RESULTS: Among the routine parameters for liver damage, AST correlated best with LS (HCV: r = 0.54, P < 0.0001 and ALD: r = 0.34, P < 0.0001). In the absence of elevated transaminases, cut-off values were almost identical between HCV and ALD for F1-2, F3 and F4 (HCV: 5.1, 9.0 and 11.9 kPa vs ALD: 4.9, 8.1 and 10.5 kPa). These cut-off values increased exponentially as a function of median AST level. The impact of AST on LS was higher in lobular-pronounced ALD as compared to portal tract-localized HCV. Most notably, Cohen's weighted Kappa displayed an improved agreement of the novel AST-dependent cut-off values with histological fibrosis stage both for HCV (0.68 vs 0.65) and ALD (0.80 vs 0.76). CONCLUSIONS: The novel AST-adapted cut-off values improve non-invasive fibrosis staging in HCV and ALD and may be also applied to other liver diseases. Especially in HCV, they could help to decide whom to treat first with the novel but expensive antiviral drugs.

Methods for proper handling of overrunning and underrunning in phase II designs for oncology trials.

Phase II studies in oncology are frequently conducted as two-stage single-arm trials with a binary endpoint indicating tumor response. As a common feature of these designs, the sample sizes of the two stages and the decision rules for the interim and the final analysis have to be pre-specified and adhered to strictly during the course of the trial in order to assure control of the type I error rate. In practice, however, the attained sample sizes often deviate from the planned ones leading to the situation of overrunning or underrunning. The currently available approaches to deal with this problem are either based on assumptions that are rarely met in practice or do not guarantee that the significance level is kept. However, strict control of the type I error rate plays an important role also for single-arm cancer trials, as they are frequently a fundamental part of the registration information. We propose a general methodology that allows handling both unintentional and intentional overrunning and underrunning while strictly controlling the type I error rate. Application of the proposed procedure and some of its characteristics are illustrated with a real phase II oncology trial.

Performance of adaptive designs for single-armed phase II oncology trials.

When planning a single-armed clinical trial with binary endpoint, the sample size is determined such that the desired power is achieved for a single value of the target rate. However, there is usually some uncertainty with respect to the true treatment effect. It is therefore more realistic to specify an interval for the possible true rate to accommodate this uncertainty. For this situation, we examine comprehensively the overall performance of various Phase II oncology designs and sample size recalculation strategies. The methods and results of our investigations can be used to identify the most appropriate approach for a specific clinical trial situation at hand. Application is illustrated with a clinical trial in rectal cancer.

Optimal adaptive two-stage designs for phase II cancer clinical trials.

In oncology, single-arm two-stage designs with binary endpoint are widely applied in phase II for the development of cytotoxic cancer therapies. Simon's optimal design with prefixed sample sizes in both stages minimizes the expected sample size under the null hypothesis and is one of the most popular designs. The search algorithms that are currently used to identify phase II designs showing prespecified characteristics are computationally intensive. For this reason, most authors impose restrictions on their search procedure. However, it remains unclear to what extent this approach influences the optimality of the resulting designs. This article describes an extension to fixed sample size phase II designs by allowing the sample size of stage two to depend on the number of responses observed in the first stage. Furthermore, we present a more efficient numerical algorithm that allows for an exhaustive search of designs. Comparisons between designs presented in the literature and the proposed optimal adaptive designs show that while the improvements are generally moderate, notable reductions in the average sample size can be achieved for specific parameter constellations when applying the new method and search strategy.

Prognostic value of disseminated tumor cells in the bone marrow of patients with operable primary breast cancer: a long-term follow-up study.

BACKGROUND: Detection of disseminated tumor cells (DTC) in primary breast cancer (BC) patients' bone marrow (BM) seems to be a surrogate marker of tumor spread and an independent prognostic factor for disease-free and overall survival. METHODS: Here we present the largest single-center cohort of patients (n = 1378) with the longest observation time (median 82.0 months). Immunocytochemical staining was performed using murine monoclonal antibody 2E11 with the avidin-biotin complex technique. RESULTS: At primary surgery, 49 % of patients showed MUC-1 positive cells inside their BM. Patients without BM DTC had significantly more often T1-tumors (P = 0.007) with less often affected axillary lymph nodes (P < 0.001). We observed a significantly higher incidence of distant metastases in DTC positive patients (P < 0.001). This leads to a reduced disease-free survival (P < 0.0001). Furthermore, in DTC positive patients there was a higher mortality rate and, accordingly, a reduced overall survival (P < 0.0001). CONCLUSIONS: Due to the presence of BM DTC, patients with a clinically poorer outcome can be identified at primary surgery. We therefore suggest that DTC analysis can be used as a prognostic factor and monitoring tool in clinical trials. Future study concepts relating to DTC should aim at identification of BC patients who may profit from adjuvant systemic therapy.

Expression of haematogenous and lymphogenous chemokine receptors and their ligands on uveal melanoma in association with liver metastasis.

PURPOSE: Chemokine receptors and their ligands are involved in a number of cell processes, including normal cell trafficking as well as metastasis in cancer. During metastasis, they are thought to play a role in determining cancer cell distribution and target organs. The aim of this study was to examine the expression of the chemokine receptors CXCR4, CCR7 and CCR10 as well as their respective chemokine ligands (CXCL12, CCL19, CCL27) in human uveal melanomas. METHODS: Seventy formalin-fixed paraffin-embedded uveal melanoma specimens from patients treated in 1996-1997 were examined using immunohistochemistry and evaluated using an immune reactive score (IRS). RESULTS: The chemokine receptors CXCR4, CCR7 and CCR10 were primarily expressed in the cytoplasm of uveal melanoma cells, with CXCR4 (average IRS 8.2) and CCR7 (average IRS 5.7) showing the strongest expression, respectively. The chemokine ligand CCL19 demonstrated a moderate expression (average IRS 5.3), whereas the expression of receptor CCR10 (average IRS of 3.4), ligand CCL27 (average IRS 2.5) and ligand CXCL12 (average IRS 0.6) by uveal melanoma cells was low. A significant association between liver metastases and chemokine expression was found for CCR7 expression (p = 0.037) only. Comparison of liver metastasis and choroid uveal melanoma (35.3%, n = 12 of 34) versus ciliary body involvement (72.7%, n = 8 of 11) was significant (p = 0.030). CONCLUSION: Chemokine receptors are more strongly expressed on uveal melanoma cells than their ligands. Our results show new aspects of the metastatic process in uveal melanoma.

Resection of the primary tumour versus no resection prior to systemic therapy in patients with colon cancer and synchronous unresectable metastases (UICC stage IV): SYNCHRONOUS--a randomised controlled multicentre trial (ISRCTN30964555).

BACKGROUND: Currently, it remains unclear, if patients with colon cancer and synchronous unresectable metastases who present without severe symptoms should undergo resection of the primary tumour prior to systemic chemotherapy. Resection of the primary tumour may be associated with significant morbidity and delays the beginning of chemotherapy. However, it may prevent local symptoms and may, moreover, prolong survival as has been demonstrated in patients with metastatic renal cell carcinoma. It is the aim of the present randomised controlled trial to evaluate the efficacy of primary tumour resection prior to systemic chemotherapy to prolong survival in patients with newly diagnosed colon cancer who are not amenable to curative therapy. METHODS/DESIGN: The SYNCHRONOUS trial is a multicentre, randomised, controlled, superiority trial with a two-group parallel design. Colon cancer patients with synchronous unresectable metastases are eligible for inclusion. Exclusion criteria are primary tumour-related symptoms, inability to tolerate surgery and/or systemic chemotherapy and history of another primary cancer. Resection of the primary tumour as well as systemic chemotherapy is provided according to the standards of the participating institution. The primary endpoint is overall survival that is assessed with a minimum follow-up of 36 months. Furthermore, it is the objective of the trial to assess the safety of both treatment strategies as well as quality of life. DISCUSSION: The SYNCHRONOUS trial is a multicentre, randomised, controlled trial to assess the efficacy and safety of primary tumour resection before beginning of systemic chemotherapy in patients with metastatic colon cancer not amenable to curative therapy. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ISRCTN30964555.

Adaptive designs for single-arm phase II trials in oncology.

Clinical phase II trials in oncology are conducted to determine whether the activity of a new anticancer treatment is promising enough to merit further investigation. Two-stage designs are commonly used for this situation to allow for early termination. Designs proposed in the literature so far have the common drawback that the sample sizes for the two stages have to be specified in the protocol and have to be adhered to strictly during the course of the trial. As a consequence, designs that allow a higher extent of flexibility are desirable. In this article, we propose a new adaptive method that allows an arbitrary modification of the sample size of the second stage using the results of the interim analysis or external information while controlling the type I error rate. If the sample size is not changed during the trial, the proposed design shows very similar characteristics to the optimal two-stage design proposed by Chang et al. (Biometrics 1987; 43:865-874). However, the new design allows the use of mid-course information for the planning of the second stage, thus meeting practical requirements when performing clinical phase II trials in oncology.

Improving the flexibility and efficiency of phase II designs for oncology trials.

Phase II trials in oncology are usually conducted as single-arm two-stage designs with binary endpoints. Currently available adaptive design methods are tailored to comparative studies with continuous test statistics. Direct transfer of these methods to discrete test statistics results in conservative procedures and, therefore, in a loss in power. We propose a method based on the conditional error function principle that directly accounts for the discreteness of the outcome. It is shown how application of the method can be used to construct new phase II designs that are more efficient as compared to currently applied designs and that allow flexible mid-course design modifications. The proposed method is illustrated with a variety of frequently used phase II designs.