Breast cancer risk assessment for prescription of Menopausal Hormone Therapy in women who have a family history of breast cancer.

Background Menopausal Hormone Therapy (MHT) can alleviate menopausal symptoms but is associated with increased risk of breast cancer (BC). MHT prescription should be preceded by individualised risk/benefit evaluation; however, data outlining the impact of family history alongside different MHT therapeutic approaches are lacking. Aim To quantify the risks associated with MHT use in women with varying BC family histories of i) developing and ii) dying from BC. Design and setting An epidemiological modelling study (UK women). Method We used i) background risks of BC by age and family history, ii) relative risks for BC associated with MHT use, and iii) 10-year BC-specific net mortality rates to model the risk of developing and dying from BC between the ages of 50 and 80 in women with four different BC family history profiles: 'average', 'modest', 'intermediate', and 'strong'. Results For a woman of 'average' family history taking no MHT, the cumulative BC risk (age 50-80) is 9.8%, and the risk of dying from the BC is 1.7%. Five years' exposure to combined-cyclical MHT (age 50-55) increases these risks to 11.0% and 1.8%, respectively. For a woman with a 'strong' family history taking no MHT, the cumulative BC risk is 19.6%, and the risk of dying is 3.2%. With 5 years of MHT (age 50-55), this increases to 22.4% and 3.5%. Conclusion Both family history and MHT are associated with increased risk of BC. Estimates of the risks associated with MHT for women with different family histories can support decision-making around MHT prescription.

Breast density prediction from low and standard dose mammograms using deep learning: effect of image resolution and model training approach on prediction quality.

Purpose. To improve breast cancer risk prediction for young women, we have developed deep learning methods to estimate mammographic density from low dose mammograms taken at approximately 1/10th of the usual dose. We investigate the quality and reliability of the density scores produced on low dose mammograms focussing on how image resolution and levels of training affect the low dose predictions.Methods. Deep learning models are developed and tested, with two feature extraction methods and an end-to-end trained method, on five different resolutions of 15,290 standard dose and simulated low dose mammograms with known labels. The models are further tested on a dataset with 296 matching standard and real low dose images allowing performance on the low dose images to be ascertained.Results. Prediction quality on standard and simulated low dose images compared to labels is similar for all equivalent model training and image resolution versions. Increasing resolution results in improved performance of both feature extraction methods for standard and simulated low dose images, while the trained models show high performance across the resolutions. For the trained models the Spearman rank correlation coefficient between predictions of standard and low dose images at low resolution is 0.951 (0.937 to 0.960) and at the highest resolution 0.956 (0.942 to 0.965). If pairs of model predictions are averaged, similarity increases.Conclusions. Deep learning mammographic density predictions on low dose mammograms are highly correlated with standard dose equivalents for feature extraction and end-to-end approaches across multiple image resolutions. Deep learning models can reliably make high quality mammographic density predictions on low dose mammograms.

Incidences of colorectal adenomas and cancers under colonoscopy surveillance suggest an accelerated "Big Bang" pathway to CRC in three of the four Lynch syndromes.

BACKGROUND: Colorectal cancers (CRCs) in the Lynch syndromes have been assumed to emerge through an accelerated adenoma-carcinoma pathway. In this model adenomas with deficient mismatch repair have an increased probability of acquiring additional cancer driver mutation(s) resulting in more rapid progression to malignancy. If this model was accurate, the success of colonoscopy in preventing CRC would be a function of the intervals between colonoscopies and mean sojourn time of detectable adenomas. Contrary to expectations, colonoscopy did not decrease incidence of CRC in the Lynch syndromes and shorter colonoscopy intervals have not been effective in reducing CRC incidence. The prospective Lynch Syndrome Database (PLSD) was designed to examine these issues in carriers of pathogenic variants of the mis-match repair (path_MMR) genes. MATERIALS AND METHODS: We examined the CRC and colorectal adenoma incidences in 3,574 path_MLH1, path_MSH2, path_MSH6 and path_PMS2 carriers subjected to regular colonoscopy with polypectomy, and considered the results based on sojourn times and stochastic probability paradigms. RESULTS: Most of the path_MMR carriers in each genetic group had no adenomas. There was no association between incidences of CRC and the presence of adenomas. There was no CRC observed in path_PMS2 carriers. CONCLUSIONS: Colonoscopy prevented CRC in path_PMS2 carriers but not in the others. Our findings are consistent with colonoscopy surveillance blocking the adenoma-carcinoma pathway by removing identified adenomas which might otherwise become CRCs. However, in the other carriers most CRCs likely arised from dMMR cells in the crypts that have an increased mutation rate with increased stochastic chaotic probabilities for mutations. Therefore, this mechanism, that may be associated with no or only a short sojourn time of MSI tumours as adenomas, could explain the findings in our previous and current reports.

BRCA awareness and testing experience in the UK Jewish population: a qualitative study.

BACKGROUND: 1 in 40 UK Jewish individuals carry a pathogenic variant in BRCA1/BRCA2. Traditional testing criteria miss half of carriers, and so population genetic testing is being piloted for Jewish people in England. There has been no qualitative research into the factors influencing BRCA awareness and testing experience in this group. This study aimed to explore these and inform improvements for the implementation of population genetic testing. METHODS: Qualitative study of UK Jewish adults who have undergone BRCA testing. We conducted one-to-one semistructured interviews via telephone or video call using a predefined topic guide, until sufficient information power was reached. Interviews were audio-recorded, transcribed verbatim and interpreted using applied thematic analysis. RESULTS: 32 individuals were interviewed (28 carriers, 4 non-carriers). We interpreted five themes intersecting across six time points of the testing pathway: (1) individual differences regarding personal/family history of cancer, demographics and personal attitudes/approach; (2) healthcare professionals' support; (3) pathway access and integration; (4) nature of family/partner relationships; and (5) Jewish community factors. Testing was largely triggered by connecting information to a personal/family history of cancer. No participants reported decision regret, although there was huge variation in satisfaction. Suggestions were given around increasing UK Jewish community awareness, making information and support services personally relevant and proactive case management of carriers. CONCLUSIONS: There is a need to improve UK Jewish community BRCA awareness and to highlight personal relevance of testing for individuals without a personal/family history of cancer. Traditional testing criteria caused multiple issues regarding test access and experience. Carriers want information and support services tailored to their individual circumstances.

Postpartum Breast Cancer and Survival in Women With Germline BRCA Pathogenic Variants.

Importance: In young-onset breast cancer (YOBC), a diagnosis within 5 to 10 years of childbirth is associated with increased mortality. Women with germline BRCA1/2 pathogenic variants (PVs) are more likely to be diagnosed with BC at younger ages, but the impact of childbirth on mortality is unknown. Objective: To determine whether time between most recent childbirth and BC diagnosis is associated with mortality among patients with YOBC and germline BRCA1/2 PVs. Design, Setting, and Participants: This prospective cohort study included women with germline BRCA1/2 PVs diagnosed with stage I to III BC at age 45 years or younger between 1950 and 2021 in the United Kingdom, who were followed up until November 2021. Data were analyzed from December 3, 2021, to November 29, 2023. Exposure: Time between most recent childbirth and subsequent BC diagnosis, with recent childbirth defined as 0 to less than 10 years, further delineated to 0 to less than 5 years and 5 to less than 10 years. Main Outcomes and Measures: The primary outcome was all-cause mortality, censored at 20 years after YOBC diagnosis. Mortality of nulliparous women was compared with the recent post partum groups and the 10 or more years post partum group. Cox proportional hazards regression analyses were adjusted for age, tumor stage, and further stratified by tumor estrogen receptor (ER) and BRCA gene status. Results: Among 903 women with BRCA PVs (mean [SD] age at diagnosis, 34.7 [6.1] years; mean [SD] follow-up, 10.8 [9.8] years), 419 received a BC diagnosis 0 to less than 10 years after childbirth, including 228 women diagnosed less than 5 years after childbirth and 191 women diagnosed 5 to less than 10 years after childbirth. Increased all-cause mortality was observed in women diagnosed within 5 to less than 10 years post partum (hazard ratio [HR], 1.56 [95% CI, 1.05-2.30]) compared with nulliparous women and women diagnosed 10 or more years after childbirth, suggesting a transient duration of postpartum risk. Risk of mortality was greater for women with ER-positive BC in the less than 5 years post partum group (HR, 2.35 [95% CI, 1.02-5.42]) and ER-negative BC in the 5 to less than 10 years post partum group (HR, 3.12 [95% CI, 1.22-7.97]) compared with the nulliparous group. Delineated by BRCA1 or BRCA2, mortality in the 5 to less than 10 years post partum group was significantly increased, but only for BRCA1 carriers (HR, 2.03 [95% CI, 1.15-3.58]). Conclusions and Relevance: These findings suggest that YOBC with germline BRCA PVs was associated with increased risk for all-cause mortality if diagnosed within 10 years after last childbirth, with risk highest for ER-positive BC diagnosed less than 5 years post partum, and for ER-negative BC diagnosed 5 to less than 10 years post partum. BRCA1 carriers were at highest risk for poor prognosis when diagnosed at 5 to less than 10 years post partum. No such associations were observed for BRCA2 carriers. These results should inform genetic counseling, prevention, and treatment strategies for BRCA PV carriers.

Pathogenic variant detection rate varies considerably in male breast cancer families and sporadic cases: minimal additional contribution beyond BRCA2, BRCA1 and CHEK2.

BACKGROUND: Male breast cancer (MBC) affects around 1 in 1000 men and is known to have a higher underlying component of high and moderate risk gene pathogenic variants (PVs) than female breast cancer, particularly in BRCA2. However, most studies only report overall detection rates without assessing detailed family history. METHODS: We reviewed germline testing in 204 families including at least one MBC for BRCA1, BRCA2, CHEK2 c.1100DelC and an extended panel in 93 of these families. Individuals had MBC (n=118), female breast cancer (FBC)(n=80), ovarian cancer (n=3) or prostate cancer-(n=3). Prior probability of having a BRCA1/2 PV was assessed using the Manchester Scoring System (MSS). RESULTS: In the 204 families, BRCA2 was the major contributor, with 51 (25%) having PVs, followed by BRCA1 and CHEK2, with five each (2.45%) but no additional PVs identified, including in families with high genetic likelihood on MSS. Detection rates were 85.7% (12/14) in MSS ≥40 and 65.5% with MSS 30-39 but only 12.8% (6/47) for sporadic breast cancer. PV rates were low and divided equally between BRCA1/2 and CHEK2. CONCLUSION: As expected, BRCA2 PVs predominate in MBC families with rates 10-fold those in CHEK2 and BRCA1. The MSS is an effective tool in assessing the likelihood of BRCA1/2 PVs.

Venous thromboembolism chemical prophylaxis after skull base surgery.

PURPOSE: There is no guidance surrounding postoperative venous thromboembolism (VTE) prophylaxis using pharmacological agents (chemoprophylaxis) in patients undergoing skull base surgery. The aim of this study was to compare VTE and intracranial haematoma rates after skull base surgery in patients treated with/without chemoprophylaxis. METHODS: Review of prospective quaternary centre database including adults undergoing first-time skull base surgery (2009-2020). VTE was defined as deep vein thrombosis (DVT) and pulmonary embolism (PE) within 6 months of surgery. Multivariate logistic regression was used to determine factors predictive of postoperative intracranial haematoma/VTE. Propensity score matching (PSM) was used in group comparisons. RESULTS: One thousand five hundred fifty-one patients were included with a median age of 52 years (range 16-89 years) and female predominance (62%). Postoperative chemoprophylaxis was used in 81% of patients at a median of 1 day postoperatively. There were 12 VTE events (1.2%), and the use of chemoprophylaxis did not negate the risk of VTE entirely (p > 0.99) and was highest on/after postoperative day 6 (9/12 VTE events). There were 18 intracranial haematomas (0.8%), and after PSM, chemoprophylaxis did not significantly increase the risk of an intracranial haematoma (p > 0.99). Patients administered chemoprophylaxis from postoperative days 1 and 2 had similar rates of intracranial haematomas (p = 0.60) and VTE (p = 0.60), affirmed in PSM. CONCLUSION: Postoperative chemoprophylaxis represents a relatively safe strategy in patients undergoing skull base surgery. We advocate a personalised approach to chemoprophylaxis and recommend it on postoperative days 1 or 2 when indicated.

Large-scale genome-wide association study of 398,238 women unveils seven novel loci associated with high-grade serous epithelial ovarian cancer risk.

Background: Nineteen genomic regions have been associated with high-grade serous ovarian cancer (HGSOC). We used data from the Ovarian Cancer Association Consortium (OCAC), Consortium of Investigators of Modifiers of BRCA1/BRCA2 (CIMBA), UK Biobank (UKBB), and FinnGen to identify novel HGSOC susceptibility loci and develop polygenic scores (PGS). Methods: We analyzed >22 million variants for 398,238 women. Associations were assessed separately by consortium and meta-analysed. OCAC and CIMBA data were used to develop PGS which were trained on FinnGen data and validated in UKBB and BioBank Japan. Results: Eight novel variants were associated with HGSOC risk. An interesting discovery biologically was finding that TP53 3'-UTR SNP rs78378222 was associated with HGSOC (per T allele relative risk (RR)=1.44, 95%CI:1.28-1.62, P=1.76×10-9). The optimal PGS included 64,518 variants and was associated with an odds ratio of 1.46 (95%CI:1.37-1.54) per standard deviation in the UKBB validation (AUROC curve=0.61, 95%CI:0.59-0.62). Conclusions: This study represents the largest GWAS for HGSOC to date. The results highlight that improvements in imputation reference panels and increased sample sizes can identify HGSOC associated variants that previously went undetected, resulting in improved PGS. The use of updated PGS in cancer risk prediction algorithms will then improve personalized risk prediction for HGSOC.

Cascade screening in HBOC and Lynch syndrome: guidelines and procedures in a UK centre.

In the 33 years since the first diagnostic cancer predisposition gene (CPG) tests in the Manchester Centre for Genomic Medicine, there has been substantial changes in the identification of index cases and cascade testing for at-risk family members. National guidelines in England and Wales are usually determined from the National Institute of healthcare Evidence and these have impacted on the thresholds for testing BRCA1/2 in Hereditary Breast Ovarian Cancer (HBOC) and in determining that all cases of colorectal and endometrial cancer should undergo screening for Lynch syndrome. Gaps for testing other CPGs relevant to HBOC have been filled by the UK Cancer Genetics Group and CanGene-CanVar project (web ref. https://www.cangene-canvaruk.org/ ). We present time trends (1990-2020) of identification of index cases with germline CPG variants and numbers of subsequent cascade tests, for BRCA1, BRCA2, and the Lynch genes (MLH1, MSH2, MSH6 and PMS2). For BRCA1/2 there was a definite increase in the proportion of index cases with ovarian cancer only and pre-symptomatic index tests both doubling from 16 to 32% and 3.2 to > 8% respectively. A mean of 1.73-1.74 additional family tests were generated for each BRCA1/2 index case within 2 years. Overall close to one positive cascade test was generated per index case resulting in > 1000 risk reducing surgery operations. In Lynch syndrome slightly more cascade tests were performed in the first two years potentially reflecting the increased actionability in males with 42.2% of pre-symptomatic tests in males compared to 25.8% in BRCA1/2 (p < 0.0001).

Improved sensitivity for detection of pathogenic variants in familial NF2-related schwannomatosis.

PURPOSE: To determine the impact of additional genetic screening techniques on the rate of detection of pathogenic variants leading to familial NF2-related schwannomatosis. METHODS: We conducted genetic screening of a cohort of 168 second-generation individuals meeting the clinical criteria for NF2-related schwannomatosis. In addition to the current clinical screening techniques, targeted next-generation sequencing (NGS) and multiplex ligation-dependent probe amplification analysis, we applied additional genetic screening techniques, including karyotype and RNA analysis. For characterisation of a complex structural variant, we also performed long-read sequencing analysis. RESULTS: Additional genetic analysis resulted in increased sensitivity of detection of pathogenic variants from 87% to 95% in our second-generation NF2-related schwannomatosis cohort. A number of pathogenic variants identified through extended analysis had been previously observed after NGS analysis but had been overlooked or classified as variants of uncertain significance. CONCLUSION: Our study indicates there is added value in performing additional genetic analysis for detection of pathogenic variants that are difficult to identify with current clinical genetic screening methods. In particular, RNA analysis is valuable for accurate classification of non-canonical splicing variants. Karyotype analysis and whole genome sequencing analysis are of particular value for identification of large and/or complex structural variants, with additional advantages in the use of long-read sequencing techniques.

The heterogeneous cancer phenotype of individuals with biallelic germline pathogenic variants in CHEK2.

PURPOSE: Females with biallelic CHEK2 germline pathogenic variants (gPVs) more often develop multiple breast cancers than individuals with monoallelic CHEK2 gPVs. This study is aimed at expanding the knowledge on the occurrence of other malignancies. METHODS: Exome sequencing of individuals who developed multiple primary malignancies identified 3 individuals with the CHEK2 (NM_007194.4) c.1100del p.(Thr367MetfsTer15) loss-of-function gPV in a biallelic state. We collected the phenotypes of an additional cohort of individuals with CHEK2 biallelic gPVs (n = 291). RESULTS: In total, 157 individuals (53.4%; 157/294 individuals) developed ≥1 (pre)malignancy. The most common (pre)malignancies next to breast cancer were colorectal- (n = 19), thyroid- (n = 19), and prostate (pre)malignancies (n = 12). Females with biallelic CHEK2 loss-of-function gPVs more frequently developed ≥2 (pre)malignancies and at an earlier age compared with females biallelic for the CHEK2 c.470T>C p.(Ile157Thr) missense variant. Furthermore, 26 males (31%; 26/84 males) with CHEK2 biallelic gPVs developed ≥1 (pre)malignancies of 15 origins. CONCLUSION: Our study suggests that CHEK2 biallelic gPVs likely increase the susceptibility to develop multiple malignancies in various tissues, both in females and males. However, it is possible that a substantial proportion of individuals with CHEK2 biallelic gPVs is missed as diagnostic testing for CHEK2 often is limited to individuals who developed breast cancer.

Differences in polygenic score distributions in European ancestry populations: implications for breast cancer risk prediction.

The 313-variant polygenic risk score (PRS313) provides a promising tool for breast cancer risk prediction. However, evaluation of the PRS313 across different European populations which could influence risk estimation has not been performed. Here, we explored the distribution of PRS313 across European populations using genotype data from 94,072 females without breast cancer, of European-ancestry from 21 countries participating in the Breast Cancer Association Consortium (BCAC) and 225,105 female participants from the UK Biobank. The mean PRS313 differed markedly across European countries, being highest in south-eastern Europe and lowest in north-western Europe. Using the overall European PRS313 distribution to categorise individuals leads to overestimation and underestimation of risk in some individuals from south-eastern and north-western countries, respectively. Adjustment for principal components explained most of the observed heterogeneity in mean PRS. Country-specific PRS distributions may be used to calibrate risk categories in individuals from different countries.

Cost-Effectiveness of Gene-Specific Prevention Strategies for Ovarian and Breast Cancer.

Importance: Pathogenic variants (PVs) in BRCA1, BRCA2, PALB2, RAD51C, RAD51D, and BRIP1 cancer susceptibility genes (CSGs) confer an increased ovarian cancer (OC) risk, with BRCA1, BRCA2, PALB2, RAD51C, and RAD51D PVs also conferring an elevated breast cancer (BC) risk. Risk-reducing surgery, medical prevention, and BC surveillance offer the opportunity to prevent cancers and deaths, but their cost-effectiveness for individual CSGs remains poorly addressed. Objective: To estimate the cost-effectiveness of prevention strategies for OC and BC among individuals carrying PVs in the previously listed CSGs. Design, Setting, and Participants: In this economic evaluation, a decision-analytic Markov model evaluated the cost-effectiveness of risk-reducing salpingo-oophorectomy (RRSO) and, where relevant, risk-reducing mastectomy (RRM) compared with nonsurgical interventions (including BC surveillance and medical prevention for increased BC risk) from December 1, 2022, to August 31, 2023. The analysis took a UK payer perspective with a lifetime horizon. The simulated cohort consisted of women aged 30 years who carried BRCA1, BRCA2, PALB2, RAD51C, RAD51D, or BRIP1 PVs. Appropriate sensitivity and scenario analyses were performed. Exposures: CSG-specific interventions, including RRSO at age 35 to 50 years with or without BC surveillance and medical prevention (ie, tamoxifen or anastrozole) from age 30 or 40 years, RRM at age 30 to 40 years, both RRSO and RRM, BC surveillance and medical prevention, or no intervention. Main Outcomes and Measures: The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) was calculated as incremental cost per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) gained. OC and BC cases and deaths were estimated. Results: In the simulated cohort of women aged 30 years with no cancer, undergoing both RRSO and RRM was most cost-effective for individuals carrying BRCA1 (RRM at age 30 years; RRSO at age 35 years), BRCA2 (RRM at age 35 years; RRSO at age 40 years), and PALB2 (RRM at age 40 years; RRSO at age 45 years) PVs. The corresponding ICERs were -£1942/QALY (-$2680/QALY), -£89/QALY (-$123/QALY), and £2381/QALY ($3286/QALY), respectively. RRSO at age 45 years was cost-effective for RAD51C, RAD51D, and BRIP1 PV carriers compared with nonsurgical strategies. The corresponding ICERs were £962/QALY ($1328/QALY), £771/QALY ($1064/QALY), and £2355/QALY ($3250/QALY), respectively. The most cost-effective preventive strategy per 1000 PV carriers could prevent 923 OC and BC cases and 302 deaths among those carrying BRCA1; 686 OC and BC cases and 170 deaths for BRCA2; 464 OC and BC cases and 130 deaths for PALB2; 102 OC cases and 64 deaths for RAD51C; 118 OC cases and 76 deaths for RAD51D; and 55 OC cases and 37 deaths for BRIP1. Probabilistic sensitivity analysis indicated both RRSO and RRM were most cost-effective in 96.5%, 89.2%, and 84.8% of simulations for BRCA1, BRCA2, and PALB2 PVs, respectively, while RRSO was cost-effective in approximately 100% of simulations for RAD51C, RAD51D, and BRIP1 PVs. Conclusions and Relevance: In this cost-effectiveness study, RRSO with or without RRM at varying optimal ages was cost-effective compared with nonsurgical strategies for individuals who carried BRCA1, BRCA2, PALB2, RAD51C, RAD51D, or BRIP1 PVs. These findings support personalizing risk-reducing surgery and guideline recommendations for individual CSG-specific OC and BC risk management.

Cancer Precision-Prevention trial of Metformin in adults with Li Fraumeni syndrome (MILI) undergoing yearly MRI surveillance: a randomised controlled trial protocol.

BACKGROUND: Li-Fraumeni syndrome (LFS) is a rare autosomal dominant disease caused by inherited or de novo germline pathogenic variants in TP53. Individuals with LFS have a 70-100% lifetime risk of developing cancer. The current standard of care involves annual surveillance with whole-body and brain MRI (WB-MRI) and clinical review; however, there are no chemoprevention agents licensed for individuals with LFS. Preclinical studies in LFS murine models show that the anti-diabetic drug metformin is chemopreventive and, in a pilot intervention trial, short-term use of metformin was well-tolerated in adults with LFS. However, metformin's mechanism of anticancer activity in this context is unclear. METHODS: Metformin in adults with Li-Fraumeni syndrome (MILI) is a Precision-Prevention phase II open-labelled unblinded randomised clinical trial in which 224 adults aged ≥ 16 years with LFS are randomised 1:1 to oral metformin (up to 2 mg daily) plus annual MRI surveillance or annual MRI surveillance alone for up to 5 years. The primary endpoint is to compare cumulative cancer-free survival up to 5 years (60 months) from randomisation between the intervention (metformin) and control (no metformin) arms. Secondary endpoints include a comparison of cumulative tumour-free survival at 5 years, overall survival at 5 years and clinical characteristics of emerging cancers between trial arms. Safety, toxicity and acceptability of metformin; impact of metformin on quality of life; and impact of baseline lifestyle risk factors on cancer incidence will be assessed. Exploratory end-points will evaluate the mechanism of action of metformin as a cancer preventative, identify biomarkers of response or carcinogenesis and assess WB-MRI performance as a diagnostic tool for detecting cancers in participants with LFS by assessing yield and diagnostic accuracy of WB-MRI. DISCUSSION: Alongside a parallel MILI study being conducted by collaborators at the National Cancer Institute (NCI), MILI is the first prevention trial to be conducted in this high-risk group. The MILI study provides a unique opportunity to evaluate the efficacy of metformin as a chemopreventive alongside exploring its mechanism of anticancer action and the biological process of mutated P53-driven tumourigenesis. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ISRCTN16699730. Registered on 28 November 2022. URL: https://www.isrctn.com/ EudraCT/CTIS number 2022-000165-41.

Feasibility and acceptability of offering breast cancer risk assessment to general population women aged 30-39 years: a mixed-methods study protocol.

INTRODUCTION: Breast cancer incidence starts to increase exponentially when women reach 30-39 years, hence before they are eligible for breast cancer screening. The introduction of breast cancer risk assessment for this age group could lead to those at higher risk receiving benefits of earlier screening and preventive strategies. Currently, risk assessment is limited to women with a family history of breast cancer only. The Breast CANcer Risk Assessment in Younger women (BCAN-RAY) study is evaluating a comprehensive breast cancer risk assessment strategy for women aged 30-39 years incorporating a questionnaire of breast cancer risk factors, low-dose mammography to assess breast density and polygenic risk. This study will assess the feasibility and acceptability of the BCAN-RAY risk assessment strategy. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: This study involves women undergoing risk assessment as part of the BCAN-RAY case-control study (n=750). They will be aged 30-39 years without a strong family history of breast cancer and invited to participate via general practice. A comparison of uptake rates by socioeconomic status and ethnicity between women who participated in the BCAN-RAY study and women who declined participation will be conducted. All participants will be asked to complete self-report questionnaires to assess key potential harms including increased state anxiety (State Trait Anxiety Inventory), cancer worry (Lerman Cancer Worry Scale) and satisfaction with the decision to participate (Decision Regret Scale), alongside potential benefits such as feeling more informed about breast cancer risk. A subsample of approximately 24 women (12 at average risk and 12 at increased risk) will additionally participate in semistructured interviews to understand the acceptability of the risk assessment strategy and identify any changes needed to it to increase uptake. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: Ethical approval was granted by North West-Greater Manchester West Research Ethics Committee (reference: 22/NW/0268). Study results will be disseminated through peer-reviewed journals, conference presentations and charitable organisations. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: NCT05305963.

Effect of baseline oestradiol serum concentration on the efficacy of anastrozole for preventing breast cancer in postmenopausal women at high risk: a case-control study of the IBIS-II prevention trial.

BACKGROUND: An increased risk of breast cancer is associated with high serum concentrations of oestradiol and testosterone in postmenopausal women, but little is known about how these hormones affect response to endocrine therapy for breast cancer prevention or treatment. We aimed to assess the effects of serum oestradiol and testosterone concentrations on the efficacy of the aromatase inhibitor anastrozole for the prevention of breast cancer in postmenopausal women at high risk. METHODS: In this case-control study we used data from the IBIS-II prevention trial, a randomised, controlled, double-blind trial in postmenopausal women aged 40-70 years at high risk of breast cancer, conducted in 153 breast cancer treatment centres across 18 countries. In the trial, women were randomly assigned (1:1) to receive anastrozole (1 mg/day, orally) or placebo daily for 5 years. In this pre-planned case-control study, the primary analysis was the effect of the baseline oestradiol to sex hormone binding globulin (SHBG) ratio (oestradiol-SHBG ratio) on the development of all breast cancers, including ductal carcinoma in situ (the primary endpoint in the trial). Cases were participants in whom breast cancer was reported after trial entry and until the cutoff on Oct 22, 2019, and who had valid blood samples and no use of hormone replacement therapy within 3 months of trial entry or during the trial. For each case, two controls without breast cancer were selected at random, matched on treatment group, age (within 2 years), and follow-up time (at least that of the matching case). For each treatment group, we applied a multinominal logistic regression likelihood-ratio trend test to assess what change in the proportion of cases was associated with a one-quartile change in hormone ratio. Controls were used only to determine quartile cutoffs. Profile likelihood 95% CIs were used to indicate the precision of estimates. A secondary analysis also investigated the effect of the baseline testosterone-SHBG ratio on breast cancer development. We also assessed relative benefit of anastrozole versus placebo (calculated as 1 - the ratio of breast cancer cases in the anastrozole group to cases in the placebo group). The trial was registered with ISRCTN (number ISRCTN31488319) and completed recruitment on Jan 31, 2012, but long-term follow-up is ongoing. FINDINGS: 3864 women were recruited into the trial between Feb 2, 2003, and Jan 31, 2012, and randomly assigned to receive anastrozole (n=1920) or placebo (n=1944). Median follow-up time was 131 months (IQR 106-156), during which 85 (4·4%) cases of breast cancer in the anastrozole group and 165 (8·5%) in the placebo group were identified. No data on gender, race, or ethnicity were collected. After exclusions, the case-control study included 212 participants from the anastrozole group (72 cases, 140 controls) and 416 from the placebo group (142 cases, 274 controls). A trend of increasing breast cancer risk with increasing oestradiol-SHBG ratio was found in the placebo group (trend per quartile 1·25 [95% CI 1·08 to 1·45], p=0·0033), but not in the anastrozole group (1·06 [0·86 to 1·30], p=0·60). A weaker effect was seen for the testosterone-SHBG ratio in the placebo group (trend 1·21 [1·05 to 1·41], p=0·011), but again not in the anastrozole group (trend 1·18 [0·96 to 1·46], p=0·11). A relative benefit of anastrozole was seen in quartile 2 (0·55 [95% CI 0·13 to 0·78]), quartile 3 (0·54 [0·22 to 0·74], and quartile 4 (0·56 [0·23 to 0·76]) of oestradiol-SHBG ratio, but not in quartile 1 (0·18 [-0·60 to 0·59]). INTERPRETATION: These results suggest that serum hormones should be measured more routinely and integrated into risk management decisions. Measuring serum hormone concentrations is inexpensive and might help clinicians differentiate which women will benefit most from an aromatase inhibitor. FUNDING: Cancer Research UK, National Health and Medical Research Council (Australia), Breast Cancer Research Foundation, and DaCosta Fund.

Recommendations for the collection and annotation of biosamples for analysis of biomarkers in neurofibromatosis and schwannomatosis clinical trials.

INTRODUCTION: Neurofibromatosis 1 and schwannomatosis are characterized by potential lifelong morbidity and life-threatening complications. To date, however, diagnostic and predictive biomarkers are an unmet need in this patient population. The inclusion of biomarker discovery correlatives in neurofibromatosis 1/schwannomatosis clinical trials enables study of low-incidence disease. The implementation of a common data model would further enhance biomarker discovery by enabling effective concatenation of data from multiple studies. METHODS: The Response Evaluation in Neurofibromatosis and Schwannomatosis biomarker working group reviewed published data on emerging trends in neurofibromatosis 1 and schwannomatosis biomarker research and developed recommendations in a series of consensus meetings. RESULTS: Liquid biopsy has emerged as a promising assay for neurofibromatosis 1/schwannomatosis biomarker discovery and validation. In addition, we review recommendations for a range of biomarkers in clinical trials, neurofibromatosis 1/schwannomatosis-specific data annotations, and common data models for data integration. CONCLUSION: These Response Evaluation in Neurofibromatosis and Schwannomatosis consensus guidelines are intended to provide best practices for the inclusion of biomarker studies in neurofibromatosis 1/schwannomatosis clinical trials, data, and sample annotation and to lay a framework for data harmonization and concatenation between trials.

Germline testing of BRCA1, BRCA2, PALB2 and CHEK2 c.1100delC in 1514 triple negative familial and isolated breast cancers from a single centre, with extended testing of ATM, RAD51C and RAD51D in over 400.

BACKGROUND: The identification of germline pathogenic gene variants (PGVs) in triple negative breast cancer (TNBC) is important to inform further primary cancer risk reduction and TNBC treatment strategies. We therefore investigated the contribution of breast cancer associated PGVs to familial and isolated invasive TNBC. METHODS: Outcomes of germline BRCA1, BRCA2 and CHEK2_c.1100delC testing were recorded in 1514 women (743-isolated, 771-familial), and for PALB2 in 846 women (541-isolated, 305-familial), with TNBC and smaller numbers for additional genes. Breast cancer free controls were identified from Predicting Risk Of Cancer At Screening and BRIDGES (Breast cancer RIsk after Diagnostic GEne Sequencing) studies. RESULTS: BRCA1_PGVs were detected in 52 isolated (7.0%) and 195 (25.3%) familial cases (isolated-OR=58.9, 95% CI: 16.6 to 247.0), BRCA2_PGVs in 21 (2.8%) isolated and 67 (8.7%) familial cases (isolated-OR=5.0, 95% CI: 2.3 to 11.2), PALB2_PGVs in 9 (1.7%) isolated and 12 (3.9%) familial cases (isolated-OR=8.8, 95% CI: 2.5 to 30.4) and CHEK2_c.1100delC in 0 isolated and 3 (0.45%) familial cases (isolated-OR=0.0, 95% CI: 0.00 to 2.11). BRCA1_PGV detection rate was >10% for all familial TNBC age groups and significantly higher for younger diagnoses (familial: <50 years, n=165/538 (30.7%); ≥50 years, n=30/233 (12.9%); p<0.0001). Women with a G3_TNBC were more likely to have a BRCA1_PGV as compared with a BRCA2 or PALB2_PGV (p<0.0001). 0/743 isolated TNBC had the CHEK2_c.1100delC PGV and 0/305 any ATM_PGV, but 2/240 (0.83%) had a RAD51D_PGV. CONCLUSION: PGVs in BRCA1 are associated with G3_TNBCs. Familial TNBCs and isolated TNBCs <30 years have a >10% likelihood of a PGV in BRCA1. BRCA1_PGVs are associated with younger age of familial TNBC. There was no evidence for any increased risk of TNBC with CHEK2 or ATM PGVs.

Predicting risk of endometrial cancer in asymptomatic women (PRECISION): Model development and external validation.

OBJECTIVES: Develop an endometrial cancer risk prediction model and externally validate it for UK primary care use. DESIGN: Cohort study. SETTING: The UK Biobank was used for model development and a linked primary (Clinical Practice Research Datalink, CPRD) and secondary care (HES), mortality (ONS) and cancer register (NRCAS) dataset was used for external validation. POPULATION: Women aged 45-60 years with no history of endometrial cancer or hysterectomy. METHODS: Model development was performed using a flexible parametric survival model and stepwise backward selection aiming to minimise the Akaike information criterion. Model performance on external validation was assessed through flexible calibration plots, calculation of the expected to observed ratio and C-statistic and decision curve analysis. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Endometrial cancer diagnosis within 1-10 years of the index date. RESULTS: Model development included 222 031 women (902 incident endometrial cancer cases) and external validation 3 094 371 women (8585 endometrial cancer cases). The final model (with equation provided) incorporated age, body mass index, waist circumference, age at menarche, menopause and last birth, hormone replacement, tamoxifen and oral contraceptive pill use, type 2 diabetes, smoking and family history of bowel cancer. It was well calibrated on external validation (calibration slope 1.14, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.11-1.17, E/O 1.03, 95% CI 1.01-1.05), with moderate/good discrimination (C-statistic 0.70, 95% CI 0.69-0.70) and had improved net benefit compared with previously developed models. CONCLUSIONS: The Predicting risk of endometrial cancer in asymptomatic women model (PRECISION), using easily measurable anthropometric, reproductive, personal and family history, accurately quantifies a woman's 10-year risk of endometrial cancer. Its use could determine eligibility for primary endometrial cancer prevention trials and for targeted resource allocation in UK general practices.

Artificial Intelligence for Image-Based Breast Cancer Risk Prediction Using Attention.

Accurate prediction of individual breast cancer risk paves the way for personalised prevention and early detection. The incorporation of genetic information and breast density has been shown to improve predictions for existing models, but detailed image-based features are yet to be included despite correlating with risk. Complex information can be extracted from mammograms using deep-learning algorithms, however, this is a challenging area of research, partly due to the lack of data within the field, and partly due to the computational burden. We propose an attention-based Multiple Instance Learning (MIL) model that can make accurate, short-term risk predictions from mammograms taken prior to the detection of cancer at full resolution. Current screen-detected cancers are mixed in with priors during model development to promote the detection of features associated with risk specifically and features associated with cancer formation, in addition to alleviating data scarcity issues. MAI-risk achieves an AUC of 0.747 [0.711, 0.783] in cancer-free screening mammograms of women who went on to develop a screen-detected or interval cancer between 5 and 55 months, outperforming both IBIS (AUC 0.594 [0.557, 0.633]) and VAS (AUC 0.649 [0.614, 0.683]) alone when accounting for established clinical risk factors.