Natural history of periodontitis: Disease progression and tooth loss over 40 years.

OBJECTIVES: To assess long-term attachment and periodontitis-related tooth loss (PTL) in untreated periodontal disease over 40 years. MATERIAL AND METHODS: Data originated from the natural history of periodontitis study in Sri Lankan tea labourers first examined in 1970. In 2010, 75 subjects (15.6%) of the original cohort were re-examined. RESULTS: PTL over 40 years varied between 0 and 28 teeth (mean 13.1). Four subjects presented with no PTL, while 12 were edentulous. Logistic regression revealed attachment loss as a statistically significant covariate for PTL (p < .004). Markov chain analysis showed that smoking and calculus were associated with disease initiation and that calculus, plaque, and gingivitis were associated with loss of attachment and progression to advanced disease. Mean attachment loss <1.81 mm at the age of 30 yielded highest sensitivity and specificity (0.71) to allocate subjects into a cohort with a dentition of at least 20 teeth at 60 years of age. CONCLUSIONS: These results highlight the importance of treating early periodontitis along with smoking cessation, in those under 30 years of age. They further show that calculus removal, plaque control, and the control of gingivitis are essential in preventing disease progression, further loss of attachment and ultimately tooth loss.

The Influence of Triclosan on Biomarkers of Cardiovascular Risk in Patients in the Cardiovascular and Periodontal Study (CAPS): A Randomized Controlled Trial.

BACKGROUND: Triclosan toothpaste is effective in controlling plaque and gingivitis and slowing progression of periodontitis; however, its influence on inflammatory biomarkers of cardiovascular disease (CVD), as well as on kidney and liver function, is unknown. METHODS: Patients recruited from the Cardiovascular Unit at Prince Charles Hospital, Brisbane, Australia, were randomized to triclosan (n = 193) or placebo (n = 190) groups and assessed for total cholesterol (TC), high density lipoprotein (HDL) and low density lipoprotein (LDL) cholesterol, triglycerides, C-reactive protein, erythrocyte sedimentation rate (ESR), hemoglobin, total white cell count (WCC), estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR), and liver function enzymes, annually for 5 years. A standard mixed model for each marker included group, sex, age, hypertension, diabetes, periodontal status, statin and anti-inflammatory drug use, and smoking as covariates. Changes in eGFR, WCC, and ESR were further analyzed using transition modeling. RESULTS: Triclosan toothpaste led to a greater decrease in TC (P = 0.03), LDL cholesterol (P = 0.04), and HDL cholesterol (P = 0.05) than placebo toothpaste. ESR increased at a slower rate in the triclosan group (P ≈ 0.06) and was less likely to increase and more likely to improve in males on statins but not anti-inflammatory drugs in the triclosan group versus the placebo group. Markov modeling of the binary response for eGFR (greater than or less than/equal to the baseline median value) showed that patients with diabetes in the placebo group were significantly (P ≈ 0.05) more likely to deteriorate than either patients with diabetes in the triclosan group or patients without diabetes in each group. CONCLUSIONS: These data suggest that triclosan toothpaste may influence some inflammatory biomarkers of CVD, but not kidney or liver function. However, it is unclear if this influence is clinically significant.

Prediction of age at menopause from assessment of ovarian reserve may be improved by using body mass index and smoking status.

OBJECTIVE: Menopause is the consequence of exhaustion of the ovarian follicular pool. AMH, an indirect hormonal marker of ovarian reserve, has been recently proposed as a predictor for age at menopause. Since BMI and smoking status are relevant independent factors associated with age at menopause we evaluated whether a model including all three of these variables could improve AMH-based prediction of age at menopause. METHODS: In the present cohort study, participants were 375 eumenorrheic women aged 19-44 years and a sample of 2,635 Italian menopausal women. AMH values were obtained from the eumenorrheic women. RESULTS: Regression analysis of the AMH data showed that a quadratic function of age provided a good description of these data plotted on a logarithmic scale, with a distribution of residual deviates that was not normal but showed significant left-skewness. Under the hypothesis that menopause can be predicted by AMH dropping below a critical threshold, a model predicting menopausal age was constructed from the AMH regression model and applied to the data on menopause. With the AMH threshold dependent on the covariates BMI and smoking status, the effects of these covariates were shown to be highly significant. CONCLUSIONS: In the present study we confirmed the good level of conformity between the distributions of observed and AMH-predicted ages at menopause, and showed that using BMI and smoking status as additional variables improves AMH-based prediction of age at menopause.

The clinical course of chronic periodontitis: V. Predictive factors in periodontal disease.

BACKGROUND: The factors associated with initial periodontitis are not well understood and cannot be identified by cross-sectional studies. AIM: To identify the factors associated with the initiation of chronic periodontitis using ante-dependence modelling. MATERIAL AND METHODS: A 26-year longitudinal study of the natural history of periodontitis served as the basis for the study. In 1969, 565 Norwegian men aged 16-34 years were surveyed. Subsequent surveys were performed in 1971, 1973, 1975, 1981, 1988 and finally in 1995, with 223 remaining subjects. Plaque (PlI), gingival (GI) and calculus indices (CI) and loss of attachment (LoA) were recorded. Ante-dependence modelling using a Markov chain enabled the results of this sequence of examinations to be analysed longitudinally, taking into account serial dependence, describing temporal changes in patients' levels of disease and allowing for both progression and regression between disease categories. RESULTS: With age, the rate of disease regression decreased. Increasing calculus accumulation and smoking increased the rate of disease progression, while increasing GI increased the rate of regression. CONCLUSIONS: Increased mean CI and smoking were significant predictive covariates for progression, while increased mean GI and younger age predicted regression of initial periodontitis.