Clustering long-term health conditions among 67728 people with multimorbidity using electronic health records in Scotland.

There is still limited understanding of how chronic conditions co-occur in patients with multimorbidity and what are the consequences for patients and the health care system. Most reported clusters of conditions have not considered the demographic characteristics of these patients during the clustering process. The study used data for all registered patients that were resident in Fife or Tayside, Scotland and aged 25 years or more on 1st January 2000 and who were followed up until 31st December 2018. We used linked demographic information, and secondary care electronic health records from 1st January 2000. Individuals with at least two of the 31 Elixhauser Comorbidity Index conditions were identified as having multimorbidity. Market basket analysis was used to cluster the conditions for the whole population and then repeatedly stratified by age, sex and deprivation. 318,235 individuals were included in the analysis, with 67,728 (21·3%) having multimorbidity. We identified five distinct clusters of conditions in the population with multimorbidity: alcohol misuse, cancer, obesity, renal failure, and heart failure. Clusters of long-term conditions differed by age, sex and socioeconomic deprivation, with some clusters not present for specific strata and others including additional conditions. These findings highlight the importance of considering demographic factors during both clustering analysis and intervention planning for individuals with multiple long-term conditions. By taking these factors into account, the healthcare system may be better equipped to develop tailored interventions that address the needs of complex patients.

Maternal multimorbidity and preterm birth in Scotland: an observational record-linkage study.

BACKGROUND: Multimorbidity is common in women across the life course. Preterm birth is the single biggest cause of neonatal mortality and morbidity. We aim to estimate the prevalence of multimorbidity in pregnant women and to examine the association between maternal multimorbidity and PTB. METHODS: This is a retrospective cohort study using electronic health records from the Scottish Morbidity Records. All pregnancies among women aged 15 to 49 with a conception date between 1 January 2014 and 31 December 2018 were included. Multimorbidity was defined as the presence of two or more pre-existing long-term physical or mental health conditions, and complex multimorbidity as the presence of four or more. It was calculated at the time of conception using a predefined list of 79 conditions published by the MuM-PreDiCT consortium. PTB was defined as babies born alive between 24 and less than 37 completed weeks of gestation. We used Generalised Estimating Equations adjusted for maternal age, socioeconomic status, number of previous pregnancies, BMI, and smoking history to estimate the effect of maternal pre-existing multimorbidity. Absolut rates are reported in the results and tables, whilst Odds Ratios (ORs) are adjusted (aOR). RESULTS: Thirty thousand five hundred fifty-seven singleton births from 27,711 pregnant women were included in the analysis. The prevalence of pre-existing multimorbidity and complex multimorbidity was 16.8% (95% CI: 16.4-17.2) and 3.6% (95% CI: 3.3-3.8), respectively. The prevalence of multimorbidity in the youngest age group was 10.2%(95% CI: 8.8-11.6), while in those 40 to 44, it was 21.4% (95% CI: 18.4-24.4), and in the 45 to 49 age group, it was 20% (95% CI: 8.9-31.1). In women without multimorbidity, the prevalence of PTB was 6.7%; it was 11.6% in women with multimorbidity and 15.6% in women with complex multimorbidity. After adjusting for maternal age, socioeconomic status, number of previous pregnancies, Body Mass Index (BMI), and smoking, multimorbidity was associated with higher odds of PTB (aOR = 1.64, 95% CI: 1.48-1.82). CONCLUSIONS: Multimorbidity at the time of conception was present in one in six women and was associated with an increased risk of preterm birth. Multimorbidity presents a significant health burden to women and their offspring. Routine and comprehensive evaluation of women with multimorbidity before and during pregnancy is urgently needed.

Radiomic analysis in contrast-enhanced mammography using a multivendor data set: accuracy of models according to segmentation techniques.

OBJECTIVE: Radiomic analysis of contrast-enhanced mammographic (CEM) images is an emerging field. The aims of this study were to build classification models to distinguish benign and malignant lesions using a multivendor data set and compare segmentation techniques. METHODS: CEM images were acquired using Hologic and GE equipment. Textural features were extracted using MaZda analysis software. Lesions were segmented with freehand region of interest (ROI) and ellipsoid_ROI. Benign/Malignant classification models were built using extracted textural features. Subset analysis according to ROI and mammographic view was performed. RESULTS: 269 enhancing mass lesions (238 patients) were included. Oversampling mitigated benign/malignant imbalance. Diagnostic accuracy of all models was high (>0.9). Segmentation with ellipsoid_ROI produced a more accurate model than with FH_ROI, accuracy:0.947 vs 0.914, AUC:0.974 vs 0.86, p < 0.05. Regarding mammographic view all models were highly accurate (0.947-0.955) with no difference in AUC (0.985-0.987). The CC-view model had the greatest specificity:0.962, the MLO-view and CC + MLO view models had higher sensitivity:0.954, p < 0.05. CONCLUSIONS: Accurate radiomics models can be built using a real-life multivendor data set segmentation with ellipsoid-ROI produces the highest level of accuracy. The marginal increase in accuracy using both mammographic views, may not justify the increased workload. ADVANCES IN KNOWLEDGE: Radiomic modelling can be successfully applied to a multivendor CEM data set, ellipsoid_ROI is an accurate segmentation technique and it may be unnecessary to segment both CEM views. These results will help further developments aimed at producing a widely accessible radiomics model for clinical use.

Polypharmacy during pregnancy and associated risk factors: a retrospective analysis of 577 medication exposures among 1.5 million pregnancies in the UK, 2000-2019.

BACKGROUND: The number of medications prescribed during pregnancy has increased over the past few decades. Few studies have described the prevalence of multiple medication use among pregnant women. This study aims to describe the overall prevalence over the last two decades among all pregnant women and those with multimorbidity and to identify risk factors for polypharmacy in pregnancy. METHODS: A retrospective cohort study was conducted between 2000 and 2019 using the Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD) pregnancy register. Prescription records for 577 medication categories were obtained. Prevalence estimates for polypharmacy (ranging from 2+ to 11+ medications) were presented along with the medications commonly prescribed individually and in pairs during the first trimester and the entire pregnancy period. Logistic regression models were performed to identify risk factors for polypharmacy. RESULTS: During the first trimester (812,354 pregnancies), the prevalence of polypharmacy ranged from 24.6% (2+ medications) to 0.1% (11+ medications). During the entire pregnancy period (774,247 pregnancies), the prevalence ranged from 58.7 to 1.4%. Broad-spectrum penicillin (6.6%), compound analgesics (4.5%) and treatment of candidiasis (4.3%) were commonly prescribed. Pairs of medication prescribed to manage different long-term conditions commonly included selective beta 2 agonists or selective serotonin re-uptake inhibitors (SSRIs). Risk factors for being prescribed 2+ medications during the first trimester of pregnancy include being overweight or obese [aOR: 1.16 (1.14-1.18) and 1.55 (1.53-1.57)], belonging to an ethnic minority group [aOR: 2.40 (2.33-2.47), 1.71 (1.65-1.76), 1.41 (1.35-1.47) and 1.39 (1.30-1.49) among women from South Asian, Black, other and mixed ethnicities compared to white women] and smoking or previously smoking [aOR: 1.19 (1.18-1.20) and 1.05 (1.03-1.06)]. Higher and lower age, higher gravidity, increasing number of comorbidities and increasing level of deprivation were also associated with increased odds of polypharmacy. CONCLUSIONS: The prevalence of polypharmacy during pregnancy has increased over the past two decades and is particularly high in younger and older women; women with high BMI, smokers and ex-smokers; and women with multimorbidity, higher gravidity and higher levels of deprivation. Well-conducted pharmaco-epidemiological research is needed to understand the effects of multiple medication use on the developing foetus.

Epidemiology of pre-existing multimorbidity in pregnant women in the UK in 2018: a population-based cross-sectional study.

BACKGROUND: Although maternal death is rare in the United Kingdom, 90% of these women had multiple health/social problems. This study aims to estimate the prevalence of pre-existing multimorbidity (two or more long-term physical or mental health conditions) in pregnant women in the United Kingdom (England, Northern Ireland, Wales and Scotland). STUDY DESIGN: Pregnant women aged 15-49 years with a conception date 1/1/2018 to 31/12/2018 were included in this population-based cross-sectional study, using routine healthcare datasets from primary care: Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD, United Kingdom, n = 37,641) and Secure Anonymized Information Linkage databank (SAIL, Wales, n = 27,782), and secondary care: Scottish Morbidity Records with linked community prescribing data (SMR, Tayside and Fife, n = 6099). Pre-existing multimorbidity preconception was defined from 79 long-term health conditions prioritised through a workshop with patient representatives and clinicians. RESULTS: The prevalence of multimorbidity was 44.2% (95% CI 43.7-44.7%), 46.2% (45.6-46.8%) and 19.8% (18.8-20.8%) in CPRD, SAIL and SMR respectively. When limited to health conditions that were active in the year before pregnancy, the prevalence of multimorbidity was still high (24.2% [23.8-24.6%], 23.5% [23.0-24.0%] and 17.0% [16.0 to 17.9%] in the respective datasets). Mental health conditions were highly prevalent and involved 70% of multimorbidity CPRD: multimorbidity with ≥one mental health condition/s 31.3% [30.8-31.8%]). After adjusting for age, ethnicity, gravidity, index of multiple deprivation, body mass index and smoking, logistic regression showed that pregnant women with multimorbidity were more likely to be older (CPRD England, adjusted OR 1.81 [95% CI 1.04-3.17] 45-49 years vs 15-19 years), multigravid (1.68 [1.50-1.89] gravidity ≥ five vs one), have raised body mass index (1.59 [1.44-1.76], body mass index 30+ vs body mass index 18.5-24.9) and smoked preconception (1.61 [1.46-1.77) vs non-smoker). CONCLUSION: Multimorbidity is prevalent in pregnant women in the United Kingdom, they are more likely to be older, multigravid, have raised body mass index and smoked preconception. Secondary care and community prescribing dataset may only capture the severe spectrum of health conditions. Research is needed urgently to quantify the consequences of maternal multimorbidity for both mothers and children.

Correlating WHO COVID-19 interim guideline 2020.5 and testing capacity, accuracy, and logistical challenges in Africa.

Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), a severe acute respiratory syndrome caused by SARS-CoV-2 was declared a global pandemic by the World Health Organization (WHO) in March 2020. As of 21st April 2021, the disease had affected more than 143 million people with more than 3 million deaths worldwide. Urgent effective strategies are required to control the scourge of the pandemic. Rapid sample collection and effective testing of appropriate specimens from patients meeting the suspect case definition for COVID-19 is a priority for clinical management and outbreak control. The WHO recommends that suspected cases be screened for SARS-CoV-2 virus with nucleic acid amplification tests such as real-time Reverse Transcription-Polymerase Chain Reaction (rRT-PCR). Other COVID-19 screening techniques such as serological and antigen tests have been developed and are currently being used for testing at ports of entry and for general surveillance of population exposure in some countries. However, there are limited testing options, equipment, and trained personnel in many African countries. Previously, positive patients have been screened more than twice to determine viral clearance prior to discharge after treatment. In a new policy directive, the WHO now recommends direct discharge after treatment of all positive cases without repeated testing. In this review, we discuss COVID-19 testing capacity, various diagnostic methods, test accuracy, as well as logistical challenges in Africa with respect to the WHO early discharge policy.

Age at the onset of tobacco smoking in South Africa: a discrete-time survival analysis of the prognostic factors.

BACKGROUND: While knowledge of onset of smoking tobacco, and associated risk factors can aid the formulation of evidence-based policy and interventions, such information is scarce in South Africa. We assessed age at onset of tobacco smoking in South Africa and identified its risk factors. METHODS: We analysed data of 15,316 respondents aged 15-98 years from the 2012 South African National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey. Descriptive statistics and survival analysis techniques were used alongside weighted percentages. RESULTS: Overall lifetime prevalence of smoking was 20.5%. Among the 3360 ever-smoked respondents, the overall median age at smoking onset was 18 years (Inter-quartile range (IQR) =5) with 2% starting before age 10 while 60% had smoked before age 20. Likelihood of tobacco smoking was higher among adolescents (<=20 years) and those aged 20-29 years than those aged > = 60 years, thrice higher among males, 29% higher among urban dwellers and thrice higher in Western Cape and Free State than in North West Province. The onset of tobacco smoking was earlier among males, wealthier and "coloured" people from Northern and Eastern Capes. CONCLUSION: The onset of tobacco smoking peaked at 15-22 years and varied by province, sex, location, race and other characteristics. The age restrictions on smoking in South Africa has changed over time, coupled with the recent open and electronic advertisement of tobacco, and social media could have influenced the earlier onset of tobacco smoking in South Africa. Stricter regulations on tobacco-related advertisement and sales should be implemented.