Cancer Stage Compared With Mortality as End Points in Randomized Clinical Trials of Cancer Screening: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis.

Importance: Randomized clinical trials of cancer screening typically use cancer-specific mortality as the primary end point. The incidence of stage III-IV cancer is a potential alternative end point that may accelerate completion of randomized clinical trials of cancer screening. Objective: To compare cancer-specific mortality with stage III-IV cancer as end points in randomized clinical trials of cancer screening. Design, Setting, and Participants: This meta-analysis included 41 randomized clinical trials of cancer screening conducted in Europe, North America, and Asia published through February 19, 2024. Data extracted included numbers of participants, cancer diagnoses, and cancer deaths in the intervention and comparison groups. For each clinical trial, the effect of screening was calculated as the percentage reduction between the intervention and comparison groups in the incidence of participants with cancer-specific mortality and stage III-IV cancer. Exposures: Randomization to a cancer screening test or to a comparison group in a clinical trial of cancer screening. Main Outcomes and Measures: End points of cancer-specific mortality and incidence of stage III-IV cancer were compared using Pearson correlation coefficients with 95% CIs, linear regression, and fixed-effects meta-analysis. Results: The included randomized clinical trials tested benefits of screening for breast (n = 6), colorectal (n = 11), lung (n = 12), ovarian (n = 4), prostate (n = 4), and other cancers (n = 4). Correlation between reductions in cancer-specific mortality and stage III-IV cancer varied by cancer type (I2 = 65%; P = .02). Correlation was highest for trials that screened for ovarian (Pearson ρ = 0.99 [95% CI, 0.51-1.00]) and lung (Pearson ρ = 0.92 [95% CI, 0.72-0.98]) cancers, moderate for breast cancer (Pearson ρ = 0.70 [95% CI, -0.26 to 0.96]), and weak for colorectal (Pearson ρ = 0.39 [95% CI, -0.27 to 0.80]) and prostate (Pearson ρ = -0.69 [95% CI, -0.99 to 0.81]) cancers. Slopes from linear regression were estimated as 1.15 for ovarian cancer, 0.75 for lung cancer, 0.40 for colorectal cancer, 0.28 for breast cancer, and -3.58 for prostate cancer, suggesting that a given magnitude of reduction in incidence of stage III-IV cancer produced different magnitudes of change in incidence of cancer-specific mortality (P for heterogeneity = .004). Conclusions and Relevance: In randomized clinical trials of cancer screening, incidence of late-stage cancer may be a suitable alternative end point to cancer-specific mortality for some cancer types, but is not suitable for others. These results have implications for clinical trials of multicancer screening tests.

Age at diagnosis for lung, colon, breast and prostate cancers: An international comparative study.

Differences in the average age at cancer diagnosis are observed across countries. We therefore aimed to assess international variation in the median age at diagnosis of common cancers worldwide, after adjusting for differences in population age structure. We used IARC's Cancer Incidence in Five Continents (CI5) Volume XI database, comprising cancer diagnoses between 2008 and 2012 from population-based cancer registries in 65 countries. We calculated crude median ages at diagnosis for lung, colon, breast and prostate cancers in each country, then adjusted for population age differences using indirect standardization. We showed that median ages at diagnosis changed by up to 10 years after standardization, typically increasing in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) and decreasing in high-income countries (HICs), given relatively younger and older populations, respectively. After standardization, the range of ages at diagnosis was 12 years for lung cancer (median age 61-Bulgaria vs 73-Bahrain), 12 years for colon cancer (60-the Islamic Republic of Iran vs 72-Peru), 10 years for female breast cancer (49-Algeria, the Islamic Republic of Iran, Republic of Korea vs 59-USA and others) and 10 years for prostate cancer (65-USA, Lithuania vs 75-Philippines). Compared to HICs, populations in LMICs were diagnosed with colon cancer at younger ages but with prostate cancer at older ages (both pLMICS-vs-HICs < 0.001). In countries with higher smoking prevalence, lung cancers were diagnosed at younger ages in both women and men (both pcorr < 0.001). Female breast cancer tended to be diagnosed at younger ages in East Asia, the Middle East and Africa. Our findings suggest that the differences in median ages at cancer diagnosis worldwide likely reflect population-level variation in risk factors and cancer control measures, including screening.

Modifiable risk factors for subsequent lethal prostate cancer among men with an initially negative prostate biopsy.

BACKGROUND: Previously suggested modifiable risk factors for prostate cancer could have resulted from detection bias because diagnosis requires a biopsy. We investigated modifiable risk factors for a subsequent cancer diagnosis among men with an initially negative prostate biopsy. METHODS: In total, 10,396 participants of the Health Professionals Follow-up Study with an initial negative prostate biopsy after 1994 were followed for incident prostate cancer until 2017. Potential risk factors were based on previous studies in the general population. Outcomes included localised, advanced, and lethal prostate cancer. RESULTS: With 1851 prostate cancer cases (168 lethal) diagnosed over 23 years of follow-up, the 20-year risk of any prostate cancer diagnosis was 18.5% (95% CI: 17.7-19.3). Higher BMI and lower alcohol intake tended to be associated with lower rates of localised disease. Coffee, lycopene intake and statin use tended to be associated with lower rates of lethal prostate cancer. Results for other risk factors were less precise but compatible with and of similar direction as for men in the overall cohort. CONCLUSIONS: Risk factors for future prostate cancer among men with a negative biopsy were generally consistent with those for the general population, supporting their validity given reduced detection bias, and could be actionable, if confirmed.

Lung cancer risk discrimination of prediagnostic proteomics measurements compared with existing prediction tools.

BACKGROUND: We sought to develop a proteomics-based risk model for lung cancer and evaluate its risk-discriminatory performance in comparison with a smoking-based risk model (PLCOm2012) and a commercially available autoantibody biomarker test. METHODS: We designed a case-control study nested in 6 prospective cohorts, including 624 lung cancer participants who donated blood samples at most 3 years prior to lung cancer diagnosis and 624 smoking-matched cancer free participants who were assayed for 302 proteins. We used 470 case-control pairs from 4 cohorts to select proteins and train a protein-based risk model. We subsequently used 154 case-control pairs from 2 cohorts to compare the risk-discriminatory performance of the protein-based model with that of the Early Cancer Detection Test (EarlyCDT)-Lung and the PLCOm2012 model using receiver operating characteristics analysis and by estimating models' sensitivity. All tests were 2-sided. RESULTS: The area under the curve for the protein-based risk model in the validation sample was 0.75 (95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.70 to 0.81) compared with 0.64 (95% CI = 0.57 to 0.70) for the PLCOm2012 model (Pdifference = .001). The EarlyCDT-Lung had a sensitivity of 14% (95% CI = 8.2% to 19%) and a specificity of 86% (95% CI = 81% to 92%) for incident lung cancer. At the same specificity of 86%, the sensitivity for the protein-based risk model was estimated at 49% (95% CI = 41% to 57%) and 30% (95% CI = 23% to 37%) for the PLCOm2012 model. CONCLUSION: Circulating proteins showed promise in predicting incident lung cancer and outperformed a standard risk prediction model and the commercialized EarlyCDT-Lung.

Evaluation of pre-diagnostic blood protein measurements for predicting survival after lung cancer diagnosis.

BACKGROUND: To evaluate whether circulating proteins are associated with survival after lung cancer diagnosis, and whether they can improve prediction of prognosis. METHODS: We measured up to 1159 proteins in blood samples from 708 participants in 6 cohorts. Samples were collected within 3 years prior to lung cancer diagnosis. We used Cox proportional hazards models to identify proteins associated with overall mortality after lung cancer diagnosis. To evaluate model performance, we used a round-robin approach in which models were fit in 5 cohorts and evaluated in the 6th cohort. Specifically, we fit a model including 5 proteins and clinical parameters and compared its performance with clinical parameters only. FINDINGS: There were 86 proteins nominally associated with mortality (p < 0.05), but only CDCP1 remained statistically significant after accounting for multiple testing (hazard ratio per standard deviation: 1.19, 95% CI: 1.10-1.30, unadjusted p = 0.00004). The external C-index for the protein-based model was 0.63 (95% CI: 0.61-0.66), compared with 0.62 (95% CI: 0.59-0.64) for the model with clinical parameters only. Inclusion of proteins did not provide a statistically significant improvement in discrimination (C-index difference: 0.015, 95% CI: -0.003 to 0.035). INTERPRETATION: Blood proteins measured within 3 years prior to lung cancer diagnosis were not strongly associated with lung cancer survival, nor did they importantly improve prediction of prognosis beyond clinical information. FUNDING: No explicit funding for this study. Authors and data collection supported by the US National Cancer Institute (U19CA203654), INCA (France, 2019-1-TABAC-01), Cancer Research Foundation of Northern Sweden (AMP19-962), and Swedish Department of Health Ministry.

Smoking Cessation After Diagnosis of Kidney Cancer Is Associated With Reduced Risk of Mortality and Cancer Progression: A Prospective Cohort Study.

PURPOSE: To investigate whether postdiagnosis smoking cessation may affect the risk of death and disease progression in patients with renal cell carcinoma (RCC) who smoked at the time of diagnosis. METHODS: Two hundred twelve patients with primary RCC were recruited between 2007 and 2016 from the Urological Department in N.N. Blokhin National Medical Research Center of Oncology, Moscow, Russia. Upon enrollment, a structured questionnaire was completed, and the patients were followed annually through 2020 to repeatedly assess their smoking status and disease progression. Survival probabilities and hazards for all-cause and cancer-specific mortality and disease progression were investigated using extended the Kaplan-Meier method, time-dependent Cox proportional hazards regression, and Fine-Gray competing-risk models. RESULTS: Patients were followed for a median of 8.2 years. During this time, 110 cases of disease progression, 100 total deaths, and 77 cancer-specific deaths were recorded. Eighty-four patients (40%) quit smoking after diagnosis. The total person-years at risk for this analysis were 748.2 for continuing smoking and 611.2 for quitting smoking periods. At 5 years of follow-up, both overall survival (85% v 61%) and progression-free survival (80% v 57%) rates were higher during the quitting than continuing smoking periods (both P < .001). In the multivariable time-dependent models, quitting smoking was associated with lower risk of all-cause mortality (hazard ratio [HR], 0.51; 95% CI, 0.31 to 0.85), disease progression (HR, 0.45; 95% CI, 0.29 to 0.71), and cancer-specific mortality (HR, 0.54; 95% CI, 0.31 to 0.93). The beneficial effect of quitting smoking was evident across all subgroups, including light smokers versus moderate-heavy smokers and those with early-stage versus late-stage tumors. CONCLUSION: Quitting smoking after RCC diagnosis may significantly improve survival and reduce the risk of disease progression and cancer mortality among patients who smoke.

Design and methodological considerations for biomarker discovery and validation in the Integrative Analysis of Lung Cancer Etiology and Risk (INTEGRAL) Program.

The Integrative Analysis of Lung Cancer Etiology and Risk (INTEGRAL) program is an NCI-funded initiative with an objective to develop tools to optimize low-dose CT (LDCT) lung cancer screening. Here, we describe the rationale and design for the Risk Biomarker and Nodule Malignancy projects within INTEGRAL. The overarching goal of these projects is to systematically investigate circulating protein markers to include on a panel for use (i) pre-LDCT, to identify people likely to benefit from screening, and (ii) post-LDCT, to differentiate benign versus malignant nodules. To identify informative proteins, the Risk Biomarker project measured 1161 proteins in a nested-case control study within 2 prospective cohorts (n = 252 lung cancer cases and 252 controls) and replicated associations for a subset of proteins in 4 cohorts (n = 479 cases and 479 controls). Eligible participants had a current or former history of smoking and cases were diagnosed up to 3 years following blood draw. The Nodule Malignancy project measured 1078 proteins among participants with a heavy smoking history within four LDCT screening studies (n = 425 cases diagnosed up to 5 years following blood draw, 430 benign-nodule controls, and 398 nodule-free controls). The INTEGRAL panel will enable absolute quantification of 21 proteins. We will evaluate its performance in the Risk Biomarker project using a case-cohort study including 14 cohorts (n = 1696 cases and 2926 subcohort representatives), and in the Nodule Malignancy project within five LDCT screening studies (n = 675 cases, 680 benign-nodule controls, and 648 nodule-free controls). Future progress to advance lung cancer early detection biomarkers will require carefully designed validation, translational, and comparative studies.

Assessment of the EarlyCDT-Lung test as an early biomarker of lung cancer in ever-smokers: A retrospective nested case-control study in two prospective cohorts.

The EarlyCDT-Lung test is a blood-based autoantibody assay intended to identify high-risk individuals for low-dose computed tomography lung cancer screening. However, there is a paucity of evidence on the performance of the EarlyCDT-Lung test in ever-smokers. We conducted a nested case-control study within two prospective cohorts to evaluate the risk-discriminatory performance of the EarlyCDT-Lung test using prediagnostic blood samples from 154 future lung cancer cases and 154 matched controls. Cases were selected from those who had ever smoked and had a prediagnostic blood sample <3 years prior to diagnosis. Conditional logistic regression was used to estimate the association between EarlyCDT-Lung test results and lung cancer risk. Sensitivity and specificity of the EarlyCDT-Lung test were calculated in all subjects and subgroups based on age, smoking history, lung cancer stage, sample collection time before diagnosis and year of sample collection. The overall lung cancer odds ratios were 0.89 (95% CI: 0.34-2.30) for a moderate risk EarlyCDT-Lung test result and 1.09 (95% CI: 0.48-2.47) for a high-risk test result compared to no significant test result. The overall sensitivity was 8.4% (95% CI: 4.6-14) and overall specificity was 92% (95% CI: 87-96) when considering a high-risk result as positive. Stratified analysis indicated higher sensitivity (17%, 95% CI: 7.2-32.1) in subjects with blood drawn up to 1 year prior to diagnosis. In conclusion, our study does not support a role of the EarlyCDT-Lung test in identifying the high-risk subjects in ever-smokers for lung cancer screening in the EPIC and NSHDS cohorts.

Association between Temporal Glycemic Change and Risk of Pancreatic Cancer in Men: A Prospective Cohort Study.

Hyperglycemia has been reported to increase the risk of pancreatic cancer (PC), while the association between glycemic change and PC risk has rarely been explored. Using data from a prospective cohort study conducted in China since 2006, 138,870 males with available fasting blood glucose (FBG) levels, including 106,632 males with at least two FBG measurements, were analyzed. The associations between FBG (level, change, and stability) and PC incidence were evaluated using Cox proportional hazard regression and restricted cubic splines. Baseline (p = 0.109) and recent (p = 0.070) FBG levels and incident PC were not significantly associated. U-shaped associations were observed between the annual FBG change and PC risk. Compared with stable FBG, participants with annual FBG change rates <−0.05 mmol/L or >0.15 mmol/L had about four-fold (HR, 4.010; 95% CI: 1.920−8.375) and six-fold (HR, 5.897; 95% CI: 2.935−11.848) higher PC risks, respectively. The PC risk increased by 2.5% (HRlinear = 1.025, 95% CI:1.009−1.042) for every 1% increase in the coefficient of variation for FBG. A subgroup analysis of males without diabetes at baseline showed stronger associations. Temporal FBG changes may be an important factor for identifying populations with high PC risks.

Association Between Baseline C-Reactive Protein and the Risk of Lung Cancer: A Prospective Population-Based Cohort Study.

C-reactive protein (CRP), a systemic marker of diagnosing chronic inflammation, has been associated with the incidence of multiple types of cancer. However, little is known about the impact of CRP on lung cancer incidence in Chinese population. A total of 97,950 participants without cancer at baseline (2006-2007) of the Kailuan Cohort Study were followed up. The concentration of plasma high-sensitivity CRP (hsCRP) was tested for all participants at baseline interview. Multivariable Cox proportional hazards regression models were used to assess the association between levels of hsCRP and incident lung cancer. During 8.7-year follow-up, 890 incident lung cancer cases occurred and were divided into three groups according to the level of hsCRP. The risk of incident lung cancer was significantly increased with elevated levels of hsCRP [HRMedium/Low, 1.21; 95% confidence interval (CI), 1.03-1.42; HRHigh/Low, 1.42, 95% CI, 1.20-1.68; Ptrend < 0.001], compared with the low group after adjusting confounders. Moreover, after stratifying by BMI, the significantly positive associations between the hsCRP level and the risk of lung cancer were found among those with BMI < 24 (HRHigh/Low, 1.51; 95% CI, 1.18-1.94; Ptrend = 0.001) and BMI = 24-28 (HRHigh/Low, 1.47; 95% CI, 1.13-1.92; Ptrend = 0.003), but not among those with BMI ≥ 28 (HRHigh/Low, 1.01; 95% CI, 0.64-1.57; Ptrend = 0.991). There was an antagonistic interaction between hsCRP levels and BMI that contributed to development of lung cancer (Pinteraction = 0.049). In conclusion, these findings indicate a dose-dependent relationship between hsCRP and lung cancer risk among Chinese population, especially in nonobese participants, suggesting that CRP could serve as a potential biomarker for prediction of lung cancer risk and identification of high-risk population. PREVENTION RELEVANCE: In this prospective population-based cohort study, we found an association between higher plasma hsCRP and an increased risk of developing lung cancer, with stronger associations observed among nonobese participants.

Relationship of sleep duration and annual changes in sleep duration with the incidence of gastrointestinal cancers: a prospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Prospective analyses have yet to identify a consistent relationship between sleep duration and the incidence of gastrointestinal (GI) cancers. The effect of changes in sleep duration on GI cancer incidence has scarcely been studied. Therefore, we aimed to examine the association between baseline sleep duration and annual changes in sleep duration and GI cancer risk in a large population-based cohort study. METHODS: A total of 123,495 participants with baseline information and 83,511 participants with annual changes in sleep duration information were prospectively observed from 2006 to 2015 for cancer incidence. Cox proportional-hazards models were used to calculate hazard ratios (HRs) and their confidence intervals (CIs) for GI cancers according to sleep duration and annual changes in sleep duration. RESULTS: In baseline sleep duration analyses, short sleep duration (≤5 h) was significantly associated with a lower risk of GI cancer in females (HR: 0.31, 95% CI: 0.10-0.90), and a linear relationship between baseline sleep duration and GI cancer was observed (P = 0.010), especially in males and in the >50-year-old group. In the annual changes in sleep duration analyses, with stable category (0 to -15 min/year) as the control group, decreased sleep duration (≤-15 min/year) was significantly associated with the development of GI cancer (HR: 1.29; 95% CI: 1.04-1.61), especially in the >50-year-old group (HR: 1.32; 95% CI: 1.01-1.71), and increased sleep duration (>0 min/year) was significantly associated with GI cancer in females (HR: 2.89; 95% CI: 1.14-7.30). CONCLUSIONS: Both sleep duration and annual changes in sleep duration were associated with the incidence of GI cancer.

Risk Factors Associated With Early-Onset Colorectal Neoplasm in Chinese Youth: A Prospective Population-Based Study.

Evidence of the risk factors associated with early-onset colorectal neoplasm from prospective population-based studies is limited. We enrolled 17,293 participants younger than 50 years from the Shanghai colorectal cancer (CRC) screening program cohort. Face-to-face interviews were performed by trained primary care physicians using a standardized questionnaire to collect the information on potential risk factors at baseline entry. Furthermore, 124 cases of early-onset colorectal neoplasm, including six CRC cases and 118 colorectal adenoma (CRA) cases, were detected between 2012 and 2016. Multivariable logistic regression models and restricted cubic spline (RCS) were used to evaluate the risk factors associated with early-onset colorectal neoplasm. We found that sex, body mass index (BMI), and family history of CRC were associated with the early onset of colorectal neoplasm. The RCS model showed a positive dose-response and linear association between BMI and risk of early-onset colorectal neoplasm among young participants (p-overall = 0.19, p-nonlinear = 0.97). The findings indicated that it was beneficial for normal people younger than 50 years to start opportunistic CRC screening. As for those at high risk, increased surveillance is strongly recommended. Further close follow-up is required for research on the underlying causes of early-onset CRC.

Assessing Individual Risk for High-Risk Early Colorectal Neoplasm for Pre-Selection of Screening in Shanghai, China: A Population-Based Nested Case-Control Study.

OBJECTIVE: To identify people with high-risk early colorectal neoplasm is highly desirable for pre-selection in colorectal cancer (CRC) screening in low-resource countries. We aim to build and validate a risk-based model so as to improve compliance and increase the benefits of screening. PATIENTS AND METHODS: Using data from the Shanghai CRC screening cohort, we conducted a population-based nested case-control study to build a risk-based model. Cases of early colorectal neoplasm were extracted as colorectal adenomas and stage 0-I CRC. Each case was matched with five individuals without neoplasm (controls) by the screening site and year of enrollment. Cases and controls were then randomly divided into two groups, with two thirds for building the risk prediction model and the other one third for model validation. Known risk factors were included for risk prediction models using logistic regressions. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) and Hosmer-Lemeshow chi-square statistics were used to evaluate model discrimination and calibration. The predicted individual risk probability was calculated under the risk regression equation. RESULTS: The model incorporating age, sex, family history and lifestyle factors including body mass index (BMI), smoking status, alcohol, regular moderate-to-intensity physical activity showed good calibration and discrimination. When the risk cutoff threshold was defined as 17%, the sensitivity and specificity of the model were 63.99% and 53.82%, respectively. The validation data analysis also showed well discrimination. CONCLUSION: A risk prediction model combining personal and lifestyle factors was developed and validated for high-risk early colorectal neoplasm among the Chinese population. This risk-based model could improve the pre-selection for screening and contribute a lot to efficient population-based screening in low-resource countries.

Time-varying effect of sex on prognosis of lung adenocarcinoma surgical patients in China.

BACKGROUND: Little is known about the prognostic advantage of sex for pulmonary adenocarcinoma among Chinese patients. In this study, we aimed to investigate the true sex differences in prognosis by adjusting for confounders and to explore whether the differences were time-varying. METHODS: We identified 4438 lung adenocarcinoma patients who underwent surgery at a regional Cancer Center of China from 2008 to 2016, retrospectively. Sex, age group, smoking history, year of diagnosis and pathological stage were collected. Time-dependent Cox regression models with inverse probability of treatment weighting (IPTW) based on propensity score were used to assess the effect of sex and account for confounders. Landmark analyses were conducted to assess survival before, and after, five years. RESULTS: Of these patients, 1761 (39.7%) were men and 2677 (60.3%) were women. Median follow-up time was 52.6 months. After IPTW adjustment, women were found to have significantly better survival than men varying with time in both crude and IPTW models (hazard ratio [HR] [t] = 0.453*1.015t , where t is the length of time from treatment and its unit is month, p < 0.001). Women had significantly better survival than men within 0-5 years after surgery (HR = 0.763, 95% CI: 0.649-0.897, p = 0.001), whereas there was no difference after five years (HR = 1.135, 95% CI: 0.803-1.605, p = 0.472). In subgroup analysis, women in the 61-71+ age group, in the more than 20 year packs group, pathological stage 0-IB group, and 2013-2016 diagnosis period group revealed the same prognostic pattern. CONCLUSIONS: Compared with men, women had better survival after surgical resection of lung adenocarcinoma, especially those who were older and nonsmokers or heavy-smokers and were pathological stage 0-IB in early years, while the advantage for women diminished with time.

Association of Prediagnostic Blood Metabolomics with Prostate Cancer Defined by ERG or PTEN Molecular Subtypes.

BACKGROUND: The TMPRSS2:ERG gene fusion and PTEN loss are two of the most common somatic molecular alterations in prostate cancer. Here, we investigated the association of prediagnostic-circulating metabolomics and prostate cancer defined by ERG or PTEN status to improve understanding of these etiologically distinct molecular prostate cancer subtypes. METHODS: The study was performed among 277 prostate cancer cases with ERG status, 211 with PTEN status, and 294 controls nested in the Health Professionals Follow-up Study (HPFS) and the Physicians' Health Study (PHS). We profiled 223 polar and non-polar metabolites using LC-MS in prediagnostic plasma specimens. We applied enrichment analysis and multinomial logistic regression models to identify biological metabolite classes and individual metabolites associated with prostate cancer defined by ERG or PTEN status. RESULTS: Compared with noncancer controls, sphingomyelin (P: 0.01), ceramide (P: 0.04), and phosphatidylethanolamine (P: 0.03) circulating levels were enriched among ERG-positive prostate cancer cases. Sphingomyelins (P: 0.02), ceramides (P: 0.005), and amino acids (P: 0.02) were enriched among tumors exhibiting PTEN-loss; unsaturated diacylglycerols (P: 0.003) were enriched among PTEN-intact cases; and unsaturated triacylglycerols were enriched among both PTEN-loss (P: 0.001) and PTEN-intact (P: 0.0001) cases. Although several individual metabolites identified in the above categories were nominally associated with ERG or PTEN-defined prostate cancer, none remained significant after accounting for multiple testing. CONCLUSIONS: The molecular process of prostate carcinogenesis may be distinct for men with different metabolomic profiles. IMPACT: These novel findings provide insights into the metabolic environment for the development of prostate cancer.

Comparative study on artificial intelligence systems for detecting early esophageal squamous cell carcinoma between narrow-band and white-light imaging.

BACKGROUND: Non-magnifying endoscopy with narrow-band imaging (NM-NBI) has been frequently used in routine screening of esophagus squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC). The performance of NBI for screening of early ESCC is, however, significantly affected by operator experience. Artificial intelligence may be a unique approach to compensate for the lack of operator experience. AIM: To construct a computer-aided detection (CAD) system for application in NM-NBI to identify early ESCC and to compare it with our previously reported CAD system with endoscopic white-light imaging (WLI). METHODS: A total of 2167 abnormal NM-NBI images of early ESCC and 2568 normal images were collected from three institutions (Zhongshan Hospital of Fudan University, Xuhui Hospital, and Kiang Wu Hospital) as the training dataset, and 316 pairs of images, each pair including images obtained by WLI and NBI (same part), were collected for validation. Twenty endoscopists participated in this study to review the validation images with or without the assistance of the CAD systems. The diagnostic results of the two CAD systems and improvement in diagnostic efficacy of endoscopists were compared in terms of sensitivity, specificity, accuracy, positive predictive value, and negative predictive value. RESULTS: The area under receiver operating characteristic curve for CAD-NBI was 0.9761. For the validation dataset, the sensitivity, specificity, accuracy, positive predictive value, and negative predictive value of CAD-NBI were 91.0%, 96.7%, 94.3%, 95.3%, and 93.6%, respectively, while those of CAD-WLI were 98.5%, 83.1%, 89.5%, 80.8%, and 98.7%, respectively. CAD-NBI showed superior accuracy and specificity than CAD-WLI (P = 0.028 and P ≤ 0.001, respectively), while CAD-WLI had higher sensitivity than CAD-NBI (P = 0.006). By using both CAD-WLI and CAD-NBI, the endoscopists could improve their diagnostic efficacy to the highest level, with accuracy, sensitivity, and specificity of 94.9%, 92.4%, and 96.7%, respectively. CONCLUSION: The CAD-NBI system for screening early ESCC has higher accuracy and specificity than CAD-WLI. Endoscopists can achieve the best diagnostic efficacy using both CAD-WLI and CAD-NBI.

Influence of adjuvant chemotherapy on survival for patients with stage IB and IIA non-small cell lung cancer.

BACKGROUND: The role of adjuvant chemotherapy (ACT) for patients with stage IB-IIA non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) according to the eighth edition of the AJCC TNM staging system remains controversial. METHODS: Data were collected from patients with NSCLC stage IB-IIA according to the eighth edition of the AJCC TNM staging system who underwent surgical resection from 2008 to 2015. The relationship between ACT and overall survival (OS) or disease-free survival (DFS) was analyzed using the Kaplan-Meier method and Cox proportional hazards model. RESULTS: The study included 648 patients with completely resected NSCLC stage IB-IIA; 312 underwent ACT after surgical resection and 336 were placed under observation. After propensity score matching, 247 pairs of patients were matched and the five-year OS was 88.08% and 83.12% (P = 0.13) in ACT and non-ACT settings, respectively. Subgroup analyses demonstrated that ACT treatment was correlated with an improved five-year OS in patients with visceral pleural invasion (VPI) in the 3 < tumor ≤ 4 cm subgroup (93.98% and 68.93%, P < 0.01). CONCLUSIONS: ACT was not significantly associated with improved five-year OS in stage IB-IIA NSCLC patients. However, further subgroup analysis showed that patients with VPI in the 3 < tumor ≤ 4 cm (T2aN0M0, stage IB) subgroup might benefit more from ACT. Further studies are required to validate the findings and better systemic strategies need to be developed in these patients. KEY POINTS: SIGNIFICANT FINDINGS OF THE STUDY: For patients with stage IB-IIA NSCLC according to the eighth edition of the AJCC TNM staging system, the effect of ACT remains unclear. ACT was not significantly associated with improved five-year OS in stage IB-IIA NSCLC patients. However, it was correlated with better DFS before or after PSM. Patients with VPI in the 3 < tumor ≤ 4 cm subgroup may benefit from ACT. WHAT THIS STUDY ADDS: ACT was not significantly associated with improved five-year OS in stage IB-IIA NSCLC patients. However, it was correlated with better DFS before or after PSM. Patients with VPI in the 3 < tumor ≤ 4 cm subgroup may benefit from ACT.

The association of diabetes with risk of prostate cancer defined by clinical and molecular features.

BACKGROUND: To prospectively examine the association between diabetes and risk of prostate cancer defined by clinical and molecular features. METHODS: A total of 49,392 men from the Health Professionals Follow-up Study (HPFS) were followed from 1986 to 2014. Data on self-reported diabetes were collected at baseline and updated biennially. Clinical features of prostate cancer included localised, advanced, lethal, low-grade, intermediate-grade, and high-grade. Molecular features included TMPRSS2: ERG and PTEN subtypes. Cox proportional hazards regression models were used to evaluate the association between diabetes and incidence of subtype-specific prostate cancer. RESULTS: During 28 years of follow-up, we documented 6733 incident prostate cancer cases. Relative to men free from diabetes, men with diabetes had lower risks of total (HR: 0.82, 95% CI: 0.75-0.90), localised (HR: 0.82, 95% CI: 0.74-0.92), low-and intermediate-grade prostate cancer (HR: 0.77, 95% CI: 0.66-0.90; HR: 0.77, 95% CI: 0.65-0.91, respectively). For molecular subtypes, the HRs for ERG-negative and ERG-positive cases were 0.63 (0.42-0.95) and 0.72 (0.46-1.12); and for PTEN-intact and PTEN-loss cases were 0.69 (0.48-0.98) and 0.52 (0.19-1.41), respectively. CONCLUSION: Besides providing advanced evidence for the inverse association between diabetes and prostate cancer, this study is the first to report associations between diabetes and ERG/PTEN defined prostate cancers.

Risk prediction model for lung cancer incorporating metabolic markers: Development and internal validation in a Chinese population.

BACKGROUND: Low-dose computed tomography screening has been proved to reduce lung cancer mortality, however, the issues of high false-positive rate and overdiagnosis remain unsolved. Risk prediction models for lung cancer that could accurately identify high-risk populations may help to increase efficiency. We thus sought to develop a risk prediction model for lung cancer incorporating epidemiological and metabolic markers in a Chinese population. METHODS: During 2006 and 2015, a total of 122 497 people were observed prospectively for lung cancer incidence with the total person-years of 976 663. Stepwise multivariable-adjusted logistic regressions with Pentry  = .15 and Pstay  = .20 were conducted to select the candidate variables including demographics and metabolic markers such as high-sensitivity C-reactive protein (hsCRP) and low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) into the prediction model. We used the C-statistic to evaluate discrimination, and Hosmer-Lemeshow tests for calibration. Tenfold cross-validation was conducted for internal validation to assess the model's stability. RESULTS: A total of 984 lung cancer cases were identified during the follow-up. The epidemiological model including age, gender, smoking status, alcohol intake status, coal dust exposure status, and body mass index generated a C-statistic of 0.731. The full model additionally included hsCRP and LDL-C showed significantly better discrimination (C-statistic = 0.735, P = .033). In stratified analysis, the full model showed better predictive power in terms of C-statistic in younger participants (<50 years, 0.709), females (0.726), and former or current smokers (0.742). The model calibrated well across the deciles of predicted risk in both the overall population (PHL  = .689) and all subgroups. CONCLUSIONS: We developed and internally validated an easy-to-use risk prediction model for lung cancer among the Chinese population that could provide guidance for screening and surveillance.

The association between fasting blood glucose trajectory and cancer risk in Chinese population without diabetes.

To examine the associations between fasting blood glucose (FBG) trajectories, the changes in FBG over time and the risk of cancer, particularly for gastrointestinal cancer, we enrolled 69,742 participants without diabetes from the Kailuan cohort. FBG trajectories (2006-2010) were modeled by group-based trajectory modeling, and five trajectories were identified: low-increasing (n = 6,275), moderate-stable (n = 44,120), moderate-increasing (n = 10,149), elevated-decreasing (n = 5,244) and elevated-stable (n = 3,954). A total of 1,364 cancer cases were accumulated between 2010 and 2015, including 472 gastrointestinal cancer cases. We used Cox proportional hazards regression models to evaluate the associations between FBG trajectory patterns and the risk of cancer. We further assessed the associations while carefully controlling for initial body mass index (BMI) in 2006 and for changes in BMI during 2006-2010. Relative to the moderate-stable group, we found a higher hazard ratio (HR) for overall cancer in the low-increasing group (HR = 1.26, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.06-1.50); and for gastrointestinal cancer in the elevated-stable group (HR = 1.66, 95% CI 1.22-2.26). Moreover, among participants with an initial BMI ≥25 kg/m2 , a positive association with the low-increasing group was observed for both overall cancer and gastrointestinal cancer (HR = 1.54, 95% CI 1.17-2.04; HR = 1.65, 95% CI 1.02-2.66; respectively); among participants with a stable BMI (4.40% loss-5.15% gain), a positive association with the elevated-stable group was observed both for overall cancer and gastrointestinal cancer (HR = 1.43, 95% CI 1.10-1.87; HR = 1.95, 95% CI 1.33-2.86; respectively). Our study observed that FBG trajectories were associated with cancer risk among participants without diabetes, and BMI may modify the associations.