Risk factors for fibrosis progression in non-alcoholic steatohepatitis: Analysis of the European cohort in the real-world GAIN study.

OBJECTIVE: To better understand drivers of disease progression in non-alcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH), we assessed clinical and sociodemographic markers of fibrosis progression in adults with NASH. PATIENTS AND METHODS: Physician-reported patient demographics and clinical characteristics were utilised from the real-world Global Assessment of the Impact of NASH (GAIN) study. Factors associated with likelihood of fibrosis progression since NASH diagnosis were identified using a logistic regression model. RESULTS: Overall, 2349 patients in Europe from the GAIN study were included; mean age was 54.6 years and 41% were women. Significant covariates included age, years since diagnosis, employment status, fibrosis stage at diagnosis, type 2 diabetes mellitus, hypertension, liver transplant and liver biopsy at diagnosis. Risk of progression was 1.16 (95% confidence interval 1.12-1.20; p<0.001) times higher for each additional year since NASH diagnosis and 5.43 (2.68-11.37; p<0.001) times higher when physicians proposed a liver transplant at diagnosis. Compared with full-time employed patients, risk of progression was 1.77 (1.19-2.60; p=0.004) times higher for unemployed patients and 3.16 (1.30-7.63; p=0.010) times higher for those unable to work due to NASH. CONCLUSIONS: Disease duration, NASH severity and presence of other metabolic comorbidities could help to assess risk of progression in patients with NASH.

Clinical and sociodemographic determinants of disease progression in patients with nonalcoholic steatohepatitis in the United States.

ABSTRACT: One fifth of patients with nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) may progress to nonalcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH), which can increase the risk of cirrhosis, cancer, and death. To date, reported predictors of NASH progression have been heterogeneous.We identified determinants of fibrosis progression in patients with NASH in the United States using physician-reported data from the real-world Global Assessment of the Impact of NASH (GAIN) study, including demographics and clinical characteristics, NASH diagnostic information, fibrosis stage, comorbidities, and treatment. We developed a logistic regression model to assess the likelihood of fibrosis progression since diagnosis, controlling for sociodemographic and clinical variables. An iterative nested model selection approach using likelihood ratio test determined the final model.A total of 989 patients from the GAIN US cohort were included; 46% were women, 58% had biopsy-proven NAFLD, and 74% had fibrosis stage F0-F2 at diagnosis. The final multivariable model included age, years since diagnosis, sex, employment status, smoking status, obesity, fibrosis stage, diagnostic biopsy, Vitamin E, and liver transplant proposed at diagnosis. Odds of progression were 17% higher (odds ratio, 1.17 [95% CI: 1.11-1.23]; P < .001) with each year since NASH diagnosis, 41% lower (0.59 [0.38-0.90]; P = .016) for women than men, 131% higher (2.31 [1.30-4.03]; P = .004) for smokers versus non-smokers, and 89% higher (1.89 [1.26-2.86]; P = .002) with obesity. Odds of progression were also higher with part-time, retired, unemployed, and unable to work due to NASH status versus full-time employment, and when a liver transplant was proposed at diagnosis.Disease duration and severity, obesity, smoking, and lack of full-time employment were significant determinants of fibrosis progression. These findings can support clinical and health-policy decisions to improve NASH management in the US.