A Comparison of XGBoost, Random Forest, and Nomograph for the Prediction of Disease Severity in Patients With COVID-19 Pneumonia: Implications of Cytokine and Immune Cell Profile.

Background and Aims: The aim of this study was to apply machine learning models and a nomogram to differentiate critically ill from non-critically ill COVID-19 pneumonia patients. Methods: Clinical symptoms and signs, laboratory parameters, cytokine profile, and immune cellular data of 63 COVID-19 pneumonia patients were retrospectively reviewed. Outcomes were followed up until Mar 12, 2020. A logistic regression function (LR model), Random Forest, and XGBoost models were developed. The performance of these models was measured by area under receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) analysis. Results: Univariate analysis revealed that there was a difference between critically and non-critically ill patients with respect to levels of interleukin-6, interleukin-10, T cells, CD4+ T, and CD8+ T cells. Interleukin-10 with an AUC of 0.86 was most useful predictor of critically ill patients with COVID-19 pneumonia. Ten variables (respiratory rate, neutrophil counts, aspartate transaminase, albumin, serum procalcitonin, D-dimer and B-type natriuretic peptide, CD4+ T cells, interleukin-6 and interleukin-10) were used as candidate predictors for LR model, Random Forest (RF) and XGBoost model application. The coefficients from LR model were utilized to build a nomogram. RF and XGBoost methods suggested that Interleukin-10 and interleukin-6 were the most important variables for severity of illness prediction. The mean AUC for LR, RF, and XGBoost model were 0.91, 0.89, and 0.93 respectively (in two-fold cross-validation). Individualized prediction by XGBoost model was explained by local interpretable model-agnostic explanations (LIME) plot. Conclusions: XGBoost exhibited the highest discriminatory performance for prediction of critically ill patients with COVID-19 pneumonia. It is inferred that the nomogram and visualized interpretation with LIME plot could be useful in the clinical setting. Additionally, interleukin-10 could serve as a useful predictor of critically ill patients with COVID-19 pneumonia.

Molecular Characterization of Pancreatic Ductal Adenocarcinoma Using a Next-Generation Sequencing Custom-Designed Multigene Panel.

Despite the efforts made in the management of PDAC, the 5-year relative survival rate of pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC) still remains very low (10%). To date, precision oncology is far from being ready to be applied in cases of PDAC, although studies exploring the molecular and genetic alterations have been conducted, and the genomic landscape of PDAC has been characterized. This study aimed to apply a next-generation sequencing (NGS) laboratory-developed multigene panel to PDAC samples to find molecular alterations that could be associated with histopathological features and clinical outcomes. A total of 68 PDACs were characterized by using a laboratory-developed multigene NGS panel. KRAS and TP53 mutations were the more frequent alterations in 75.0% and 44.6% of cases, respectively. In the majority (58.7%) of specimens, more than one mutation was detected, mainly in KRAS and TP53 genes. KRAS mutation was significantly associated with a shorter time in tumor recurrence compared with KRAS wild-type tumors. Intriguingly, KRAS wild-type cases had a better short-term prognosis despite the lymph node status. In conclusion, our work highlights that the combination of KRAS mutation with the age of the patient and the lymph node status may help in predicting the outcome in PDAC patients.

Molecular alterations in pancreatic tumors.

Genetic alterations in pancreatic tumors can usually be classified in: (1) Mutational activation of oncogenes; (2) Inactivation of tumor suppressor genes; and (3) Inactivation of genome maintenance genes controlling the repair of DNA damage. Endoscopic ultrasound-guided fine-needle aspiration has improved pre-operative diagnosis, but the management of patients with a pancreatic lesion is still challenging. Molecular testing could help mainly in solving these "inconclusive" specimens. The introduction of multi-gene analysis approaches, such as next-generation sequencing, has provided a lot of useful information on the molecular characterization of pancreatic tumors. Different types of pancreatic tumors (e.g., pancreatic ductal adenocarcinomas, intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasms, solid pseudopapillary tumors) are characterized by specific molecular alterations. The aim of this review is to summarize the main molecular alterations found in pancreatic tumors.

Periostin, tenascin, osteopontin isoforms in long- and non-long survival patients with pancreatic cancer: a pilot study.

Pancreatic adenocarcinoma (PDAC) is the most frequent histological type of malignancy in the pancreas. Extracellular matrix (ECM), plays a critical role during the process of human carcinogenesis and the possible diversity in matricellular proteins composition of ECM may have a significant impact on the clinical course of PDAC. Aim of this paper was to evaluate the expression of three matricellular proteins, including Periostin (POSTN), Tenascin (TNS) and Osteopontin (OPN), in PDAC from long-survival (LS) and non-long survival (NLS) patients. A total of 30 PDAC were analyzed, 15 from patients that survived more than 60 months after surgery (LS) and 15 that died from the disease within 24 (NLS). RNA was extracted and OPN, TNS and POSTN mRNA levels were evaluated by qRT-PCR. LS and NLS samples showed the same type of POSTN and TN isoforms. On the contrary, OPN seems to be preferentially expressed in NLS PDAC. Moreover, OPNb and OPNc isoforms were expressed exclusively in NLS samples. In conclusion, Our data led to hypothesize a possible relationship between the expression of different isoforms of each of these proteins and the clinical outcome of patients with PDAC.

Computer-aided assessment of the extra-cellular matrix during pancreatic carcinogenesis: a pilot study.

BACKGROUND: A hallmark of pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma is the desmoplastic reaction, but its impact on the tumor behavior remains controversial. Our aim was to introduce a computer -aided method to precisely quantify the amount of pancreatic collagenic extra-cellular matrix, its spatial distribution pattern, and the degradation process. METHODS: A series of normal, inflammatory and neoplastic pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma formalin-fixed and paraffin-embedded Sirius red stained sections were automatically digitized and analyzed using a computer-aided method. RESULTS: We found a progressive increase of pancreatic collagenic extra-cellular matrix from normal to the inflammatory and pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma. The two-dimensional fractal dimension showed a significant difference in the collagenic extra-cellular matrix spatial complexity between normal versus inflammatory and pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma. A significant difference when comparing the number of cycles necessary to degrade the pancreatic collagenic extra-cellular matrix in normal versus inflammatory and pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma was also found. The difference between inflammatory and pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma was also significant. Furthermore, the mean velocity of collagenic extra-cellular matrix degradation was found to be faster in inflammatory and pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma than in normal. CONCLUSION: These findings demonstrate that inflammatory and pancreatic ductal adenocarcinomas are characterized by an increased amount of pancreatic collagenic extra-cellular matrix and by changes in their spatial complexity and degradation. Our study defines new features about the pancreatic collagenic extra-cellular matrix, and represents a basis for further investigations into the clinical behavior of pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma and the development of therapeutic strategies.

The role of matricellular proteins and tissue stiffness in breast cancer: a systematic review.

Malignancies consist not only of cancerous and nonmalignant cells, but also of additional elements, as extracellular matrix. The aim of this review is to summarize meta-analyses, describing breast tissue stiffness and risk of breast carcinoma (BC) assessing the potential relationship between matricellular proteins (MPs) and survival. A systematic computer-based search of published articles, according to PRISMA statement, was conducted through Ovid interface. Mammographic density and tissue stiffness are associated with the risk of BC development, suggesting that MPs may influence BC prognosis. No definitive conclusions are available and additional researches are required to definitively clarify the role of each MP, mammographic density and stiffness in BC development and the mechanisms involved in the onset of this malignancy.

Matricellular proteins and survival in patients with pancreatic cancer: A systematic review.

Extracellular matrix (ECM) plays a fundamental role in tissue architecture and homeostasis and modulates cell functions through a complex interaction between cell surface receptors, hormones, several bioeffector molecules, and structural proteins like collagen. These components are secreted into ECM and all together contribute to regulate several cellular activities including differentiation, apoptosis, proliferation, and migration. The so-called "matricellular" proteins (MPs) have recently emerged as important regulators of ECM functions. The aim of our review is to consider all different types of MPs family assessing the potential relationship between MPs and survival in patients with pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC). A systematic computer-based search of published articles, according to the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic reviews and Meta-Analysis (PRISMA) Statement issued in 2009 was conducted through Ovid interface, and literature review was performed in May 2017. The search text words were identified by means of controlled vocabulary, such as the National Library of Medicine's MESH (Medical Subject Headings) and Keywords. Collected data showed an important role of MPs in carcinogenesis and in PDAC prognosis even though the underlying mechanisms are still largely unknown and data are not univocal. Therefore, a better understanding of MPs role in regulation of ECM homeostasis and remodeling of specific organ niches may suggest potential novel extracellular targets for the development of efficacious therapeutic strategies.

Long-term survivors of pancreatic adenocarcinoma show low rates of genetic alterations in KRAS, TP53 and SMAD4.

BACKGROUND: Pancreatic adenocarcinoma (PDAC) is one of the deadliest human malignancies. Although surgery is currently the only effective treatment for PDAC, most patients survive less than 20 months after tumor resection. OBJECTIVE: The primary goal was to investigate alterations in KRAS, TP53, SMAD4 and CDKN2A/p16 in tumors from patients with exceptionally long survival after surgery. METHODS: Tumors from 15 patients with PDAC that survived more than 55 months after surgery ("LS") were analyzed for KRAS, TP53, IDH1, NRAS and BRAF using next-generation sequencing. SMAD4 and CDKN2A/p16 was tested using immunohistochemistry. MGMT promoter methylation was investigated. RESULTS: Tumors from "LS" have a lower prevalence of KRAS and TP53 mutations and had more frequently SMAD4 retained expression, if compared with that of patients died within 24 months from surgery. The survival of patients with wild-type KRAS and TP53 tumors was more than twice longer than that of patients bearing KRAS and TP53 mutations (90.2 vs. 41.1 months). Patients with KRAS wild-type tumors and that retained SMAD4 expression had a survival twice longer than cases with alterations in both genes (83.8 vs. 36.7 months). Eleven tumors (39.3%) showed MGMT methylation. CONCLUSIONS: Our data indicate that absence of KRAS, TP53 and SMAD4 genetic alterations may identify a subset of pancreatic carcinomas with better outcome.

Italian prisoners with tuberculosis in the early nineteenth century: the experience in the Pianosa prison hospital.

In the late nineteenth century, with industrial growth and the resulting mass urbanisation, tuberculosis represented a plague mainly among the poor social classes. The outdated and crowded Italian prisons (formerly old monasteries) during the early 1900s were insufficient to "host" the multitude of inmates condemned or waiting for judgment. Italian prisoners were beset by hunger and poor hygiene facilities. Clothes did not differ between winter and summer. The Criminal Sanatorium of Pianosa was officially inaugurated in 1907, but from the 1860s it had been set up to host an agricultural penal colony. Here we report the excellent results obtained between 1907 and 1909 in the management of tuberculosis among prisoners in Pianosa, where surgery was also available. In those times, climate therapy with an enriched and varied nutrition was the only effective treatment for tuberculosis. Overall, of the 913 prisoners housed in Pianosa in that period and according to the acknowledged scientific criteria, the following results were achieved: complete cure in 182, improvement in 416, mild amelioration in 94, worsening in 80, no change in 20. The number of prisoners who died or were transferred to another prison is unknown. The case series of the prison hospital in Pianosa may be reconstructed thanks to data published by the Director Roberto Passini. The better outcome of the prisoners in Pianosa, in comparison with inmates of other Italian institutions, was due both to treatment standards (climate, nutritional, hygienic, and surgical) and to the proportionally longer period of stay in Pianosa for prisoners with already confirmed detention periods.

An Italian case of intestinal anisakiasis with a presurgical diagnosis: Could this parasite represent an emerging disease?

Anisakiasis is a parasitic infection caused by the consumption of raw fish containing larvae of the Anisakis species. Since the first description in 1960 of a patient suffering from this pathogen, in the Netherlands, most of the cases have been reported in Japan, where consumption of raw fish is common, but the number of cases is increasing worldwide. The first case identified in Italy dates back to 1996 and a few cases have been reported since then. In Italy the intestinal form occurs almost as frequently as the gastric form, which is far more frequent in Japan. Intestinal Anisakiasis represents a diagnostic challenge as it is clinically misdiagnosed and most of the patients require surgery due to the occurrence of complications such as bowel occlusion or perforation. Practically no cases of the intestinal form are diagnosed preoperatively. We report the first case, to our knowledge, of intestinal Anisakiasis in which surgery was avoided, due to a prompt diagnosis suspected on intestinal biopsies. A literature review of Anisakiasis cases reported in Italy is also carried out.

Team work and cytopathology molecular diagnosis of solid pancreatic lesions.

Pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC) is expected to become the second leading cause of cancer-associated death in the next decade or so. It is widely accepted that tumorigenesis is linked to specific alterations in key genes and pancreatic neoplasms are some of the best characterized at the genomic level. Recent whole-exome and whole-genome sequencing analyses confirmed that PDAC is frequently characterized by mutations in a set of four genes among others: KRAS, TP53, CDKN2A/p16, and SMAD4. Sequencing, for example, is the preferable technique available for detecting KRAS mutations, whereas in situ immunochemistry is the main approach for detecting TP53 gene alteration. Nevertheless, the diagnosis of PDAC is still a clinical challenge, involving adequate acquisition of endoscopic ultrasound (EUS)-guided fine-needle aspiration (FNA) and specific pathological assessment from tissue architecture to specific biomolecular tests. The aim of the present review is to provide a complete overview of the current knowledge of the biology of pancreatic cancer as detected by the latest biomolecular techniques and, moreover, to propose a paradigm for strict teamwork collaboration in order to improve the correct use of diagnostic sources.

MicroRNAs as possible biomarkers for diagnosis and prognosis of hepatitis B- and C-related-hepatocellular-carcinoma.

Aim of the present review is to summarize the current knowledge about the potential relationship between miRNAs and hepatitis B virus (HBV)-hepatitis C virus (HCV) related liver diseases. A systematic computer-based search of published articles, according to the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic reviews and Meta-Analysis Statement, was performed to identify relevant studies on usefulness of serum/plasma/urine miRNAs, as noninvasive biomarkers for early detection of HBV and HCV-induced hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) development, as well as for its prognostic evaluation. The used Medical Subject Headings terms and keywords were: "HBV", "HCV", "hepatocellular carcinoma", "microRNAs", "miRNAs", "diagnosis", "prognosis", "therapy", "treatment". Some serum/plasma miRNAs, including miR-21, miR-122, mi-125a/b, miR-199a/b, miR-221, miR-222, miR-223, miR-224 might serve as biomarkers for early diagnosis/prognosis of HCC, but, to date, not definitive results or well-defined panels of miRNAs have been obtained. More well-designed studies, focusing on populations of different geographical areas and involving larger series of patients, should be carried out to improve our knowledge on the potential role of miRNAs for HCC early detection and prognosis.

Possible association between hepatitis C virus and malignancies different from hepatocellular carcinoma: A systematic review.

AIM: To summarize the current knowledge about the potential relationship between hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection and the risk of several extra-liver cancers. METHODS: We performed a systematic review of the literature, according to the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic reviews and Meta-Analysis (PRISMA) Statement. We extracted the pertinent articles, published in MEDLINE and the Cochrane Library, using the following search terms: neoplasm/cancer/malignancy/tumor/carcinoma/adeno-carcinoma and non-Hodgkin lymphomas, kidney/renal-, cholangio-, pancreatic-, thyroid-, breast-,oral-, skin-, prostate-, lung-, colon-, stomach-, haematologic. Case series, case-series with control-group, case-control, cohort-studies as well as meta-analyses, written in English were collected. Some of the main characteristics of retrieved trials, which were designed to investigate the prevalence of HCV infection in each type of the above-mentioned human malignancies were summarised. A main table was defined and included a short description in the text for each of these tumours, whether at least five studies about a specific neoplasm, meeting inclusion criteria, were available in literature. According to these criteria, we created the following sections and the corresponding tables and we indicated the number of included or excluded articles, as well as of meta-analyses and reviews: (1) HCV and haematopoietic malignancies; (2) HCV and cholangiocarcinoma; (3) HCV and pancreatic cancer; (4) HCV and breast cancer; (5) HCV and kidney cancer; (6) HCV and skin or oral cancer; and (7) HCV and thyroid cancer. RESULTS: According to available data, a clear correlation between regions of HCV prevalence and risk of extra-liver cancers has emerged only for a very small group of types and histological subtypes of malignancies. In particular, HCV infection has been associated with: (1) a higher incidence of some B-cell Non-Hodgkin-Lymphoma types, in countries, where an elevated prevalence of this pathogen is detectable, accounting to a percentage of about 10%; (2) an increased risk of intra-hepatic cholangiocarcinoma; and (3) a correlation between HCV prevalence and pancreatic cancer (PAC) incidence. CONCLUSION: To date no definitive conclusions may be obtained from the analysis of relationship between HCV and extra-hepatic cancers. Further studies, recruiting an adequate number of patients are required to confirm or deny this association.

Contribution of microRNA analysis to characterisation of pancreatic lesions: a review.

Pancreatic tumours are usually very aggressive cancer with a poor prognosis. A limitation of pancreatic imaging techniques is that lesions are often of ambiguous relevance. The inability to achieve a definitive diagnosis based on cytological evaluation of specimens, due to sampling error, paucicellular samples or coexisting inflammation, might lead to delay in clinical management. Given the morbidity associated with pancreatectomy, a proper selection of patients for surgery is fundamental. Many studies have been conducted in order to identify specific markers that could support the early diagnosis of pancreatic lesions, but, to date, none of them allow to diagnose pancreatic cancer with high sensitivity and specificity. MicroRNAs (miRNA) are small non-coding RNAs (19-25 nucleotides) that regulate gene expression interacting with mRNA targets. It is now established that each tissue shows a characteristic miRNA expression pattern that could be modified in association with a number of different diseases including neoplasia. Due to their key role in the regulation of gene expression, in the last years several studies have investigated miRNA tissue-specific expression, quantification and functional analysis to understand their peculiar involvement in cellular processes. The aim of this review is to focus on miRNA expression in pancreatic cancer and their putative role in early characterisation of pancreatic lesions.

Tensegrity model hypothesis: may this paradigm be useful to explain hepatic and pancreatic carcinogenesis in patients with persistent hepatitis B or hepatitis C virus infection?

CONTEXT: Hepatitis B (HBV) and hepatitis C virus (HCV) possess well-known oncogenic properties and may promote carcinogenesis in liver. However antigens and replicative sequences of HBV/HCV have been also detected in different extra-hepatic tissues, including the pancreas. Although epidemiological studies and meta-analyses have recently suggested that HBV/HCV may be also risk factors for pancreatic cancer and several researches have investigated the possible mechanisms and intra-/extra-cellular paths involved in pancreatic and hepatic carcinogenesis, to date, these complex processes remain largely unexplained. OBJECTIVES: In our paper, we aimed to propose a comprehensive and qualitative hypothetical model, describing how HBV/HCV may exert their oncogenic role. METHODS: We performed a systematic research of scientific literature, by searching MEDLINE, the Cochrane Library and EMBASE databases. The used keywords were: "chronic HBV/HCV", "pancreatic cancer", "liver carcinoma", "carcinogenesis mechanisms", "tensional integrity", "cytoskeleton", and "extracellular matrix". RESULTS: Taking advantage from available studies, we suggest an unifying hypothesis based on results and data, obtained from different areas of research. In particular we considered the well-defined model of tensional integrity and correlated it to changes induced by HBV/HCV in viscoelastic properties/stiffness of cellular/extracellular microenvironments. These events perturb the tightly-regulated feedback loop, which usually couples the intracellular-generated forces to substrate rigidity of extracellular compartments. Therefore, such a change strongly affects intracellular functions and cellular fate, by promoting a substantial deregulation of critical intracellular biochemical activities and genome expression. CONCLUSIONS: Our hypothesis might provide for the first time a reliable system, which correlates tensional integrity model with intra-/extra-cellular modifications, occurring in liver and pancreas during HBV/HCV-induced carcinogenesis. This approach might improve our understanding of pathogenetic mechanisms involved in the development of pancreatic and hepatic carcinogenesis , enhancing the possibility of their treatment. Furthermore, should the usefulness of this model be definitively confirmed, it might be also helpful to extend its field of application to other viruses-related cancers.

HBV- and HCV-related infections and risk of pancreatic cancer.

Pancreatic carcinoma is one of the most lethal cancers in humans. The poor prognosis of this malignancy depends on several factors, such as: lack of early symptoms, advanced stage at detection, early metastatic spread and no effective systemic treatment. To date, only few risk factors for this malignancy are known; therefore, considerable efforts are required to identify additional causative agents involved in the process of pancreatic carcinogenesis. In the last years, a large series of epidemiological investigations have suggested that both bacteria and viruses may play a important role in the initiation and progression of several animal and human cancers. In particular, some studies have showed that hepatitis B (HBV) and hepatitis C (HCV) viruses, two hepatotropic pathogens with well-known oncogenic properties for liver, may be detected also in extra-hepatic tissues, such as pancreas. The aim of this paper is to briefly report the results of available studies, assessing the possible association between HBV/HCV and pancreatic cancer development as well as to discuss the limiting factors of these researches.

The emerging of the fifth malaria parasite (Plasmodium knowlesi): a public health concern?

After examining the most recent scientific evidences, which assessed the role of some malaria plasmodia that have monkeys as natural reservoirs, the authors focus their attention on Plasmodium knowlesi. The infective foci attributable to this last Plasmodium species have been identified during the last decade in Malaysia, in particular in the states of Sarawak and Sabah (Malaysian Borneo), and in the Pahang region (peninsular Malaysia). The significant relevance of molecular biology assays (polymerase chain reaction, or PCR, performed with specific primers for P. knowlesi), is underlined, since the traditional microscopic examination does not offer distinguishing features, especially when the differential diagnosis with Plasmodium malariae is of concern. Furthermore, Plasmodium knowlesi disease may be responsible of fatal cases, since its clinical presentation and course is more severe compared with those caused by P. malariae, paralleling a more elevated parasitemia. The most effective mosquito vector is represented by Anopheles latens; this mosquito is a parasite of both humans and monkeys. Among primates, the natural hosts are Macaca fascicularis, M. nemestina, M. inus, and Saimiri scirea. When remarking the possible severe evolution of P. knowlesi malaria, we underline the importance of an early recognition and a timely management, especially in patients who have their first onset in Western Hospitals, after journeys in Southeast Asian countries, and eventually participated in trekking excursions in the tropical forest. When malaria-like signs and symptoms are present, a timely diagnosis and treatment become crucial. In the light of its emerging epidemiological features, P. knowlesi may be added to the reknown human malaria parasites, whith includes P. vivax, P. ovale, P. malariae, and P. falciparum, as the fifth potential ethiologic agent of human malaria. Over the next few years, it will be mandatory to support an adequate surveillance and epidemiological network. In parallel with epidemiological and health care policy studies, also an accurate appraisal of the clinical features of P. knowlesi-affected patients will be strongly needed, since some preliminary experiences seem to show an increased disease severity, associated with increased parasitemia, in parallel with the progressive increase of inter-human infectious passages of this emerging Plasmodium.