Prediction of plasma ctDNA fraction and prognostic implications of liquid biopsy in advanced prostate cancer.

No consensus strategies exist for prognosticating metastatic castration-resistant prostate cancer (mCRPC). Circulating tumor DNA fraction (ctDNA%) is increasingly reported by commercial and laboratory tests but its utility for risk stratification is unclear. Here, we intersect ctDNA%, treatment outcomes, and clinical characteristics across 738 plasma samples from 491 male mCRPC patients from two randomized multicentre phase II trials and a prospective province-wide blood biobanking program. ctDNA% correlates with serum and radiographic metrics of disease burden and is highest in patients with liver metastases. ctDNA% strongly predicts overall survival, progression-free survival, and treatment response independent of therapeutic context and outperformed established prognostic clinical factors. Recognizing that ctDNA-based biomarker genotyping is limited by low ctDNA% in some patients, we leverage the relationship between clinical prognostic factors and ctDNA% to develop a clinically-interpretable machine-learning tool that predicts whether a patient has sufficient ctDNA% for informative ctDNA genotyping (available online: https://www.ctDNA.org ). Our results affirm ctDNA% as an actionable tool for patient risk stratification and provide a practical framework for optimized biomarker testing.

Multiregion sampling of de novo metastatic prostate cancer reveals complex polyclonality and augments clinical genotyping.

De novo metastatic prostate cancer is highly aggressive, but the paucity of routinely collected tissue has hindered genomic stratification and precision oncology. Here, we leveraged a rare study of surgical intervention in 43 de novo metastatic prostate cancers to assess somatic genotypes across 607 synchronous primary and metastatic tissue regions plus circulating tumor DNA. Intra-prostate heterogeneity was pervasive and impacted clinically relevant genes, resulting in discordant genotypes between select primary restricted regions and synchronous metastases. Additional complexity was driven by polyclonal metastatic seeding from phylogenetically related primary populations. When simulating clinical practice relying on a single tissue region, genomic heterogeneity plus variable tumor fraction across samples caused inaccurate genotyping of dominant disease; however, pooling extracted DNA from multiple biopsy cores before sequencing can rescue misassigned somatic genotypes. Our results define the relationship between synchronous treatment-sensitive primary and metastatic lesions in men with de novo metastatic prostate cancer and provide a framework for implementing genomics-guided patient management.

A generalizable machine learning framework for classifying DNA repair defects using ctDNA exomes.

Specific classes of DNA damage repair (DDR) defect can drive sensitivity to emerging therapies for metastatic prostate cancer. However, biomarker approaches based on DDR gene sequencing do not accurately predict DDR deficiency or treatment benefit. Somatic alteration signatures may identify DDR deficiency but historically require whole-genome sequencing of tumour tissue. We assembled whole-exome sequencing data for 155 high ctDNA fraction plasma cell-free DNA and matched leukocyte DNA samples from patients with metastatic prostate or bladder cancer. Labels for DDR gene alterations were established using deep targeted sequencing. Per sample mutation and copy number features were used to train XGBoost ensemble models. Naive somatic features and trinucleotide signatures were associated with specific DDR gene alterations but insufficient to resolve each class. Conversely, XGBoost-derived models showed strong performance including an area under the curve of 0.99, 0.99 and 1.00 for identifying BRCA2, CDK12, and mismatch repair deficiency in metastatic prostate cancer. Our machine learning approach re-classified several samples exhibiting genomic features inconsistent with original labels, identified a metastatic bladder cancer sample with a homozygous BRCA2 copy loss, and outperformed an existing exome-based classifier for BRCA2 deficiency. We present DARC Sign (DnA Repair Classification SIGNatures); a public machine learning tool leveraging clinically-practical liquid biopsy specimens for simultaneously identifying multiple types of metastatic prostate cancer DDR deficiencies. We posit that it will be useful for understanding differential responses to DDR-directed therapies in ongoing clinical trials and may ultimately enable prospective identification of prostate cancers with phenotypic evidence of DDR deficiency.

Genomic Features of Lung-Recurrent Hormone-Sensitive Prostate Cancer.

PURPOSE: Pulmonary involvement is rare in metastatic hormone-sensitive prostate cancer (mHSPC) that recurs after treatment for localized disease. Guidelines recommend intensive systemic therapy, similar to patients with liver metastases, but some lung-recurrent mHSPC may have good outcomes. Genomic features of lung metastases may clarify disease aggression, but are poorly understood since lung biopsy is rarely performed. We present a comparative assessment of genomic drivers and heterogeneity in metachronous prostate tumors and lung metastases. METHODS: We leveraged a prospective functional imaging study of 208 biochemically recurrent prostate cancers to identify 10 patients with lung-recurrent mHSPC. Histologic diagnosis was attained via thoracic surgery or fine-needle lung biopsy. We retrieved clinical data and performed multiregion sampling of primary tumors and metastases. Targeted and/or whole-exome sequencing was applied to 46 primary and 32 metastatic foci. RESULTS: Unusually for mHSPC, all patients remained alive despite a median follow-up of 11.5 years. Several patients experienced long-term freedom from systemic treatment. The genomic landscape of lung-recurrent mHSPC was typical of curable prostate cancer with frequent PTEN, SPOP, and chromosome 8p alterations, and there were no deleterious TP53 and DNA damage repair gene mutations that characterize aggressive prostate cancer. Despite a long median time to recurrence (76.8 months), copy number alterations and clonal mutations were highly conserved between metastatic and primary foci, consistent with intrapatient homogeneity and limited genomic evolution. CONCLUSION: In this retrospective hypothesis-generating study, we observed indolent genomic etiology in selected lung-recurrent mHSPC, cautioning against grouping these patients together with liver or bone-predominant mHSPC. Although our data do not generalize to all patients with lung metastases, the results encourage prospective efforts to stratify lung-recurrent mHSPC by genomic features.

BRCA2, ATM, and CDK12 Defects Differentially Shape Prostate Tumor Driver Genomics and Clinical Aggression.

PURPOSE: DNA damage repair (DDR) defects are common across cancer types and can indicate therapeutic vulnerability. Optimal exploitation of DDR defects in prostate cancer requires new diagnostic strategies and a better understanding of associated clinical genomic features. EXPERIMENTAL DESIGN: We performed targeted sequencing of 1,615 plasma cell-free DNA samples from 879 patients with metastatic prostate cancer. Depth-based copy-number calls and heterozygous SNP imbalance were leveraged to expose DDR-mutant allelic configuration and categorize mechanisms of biallelic loss. We used split-read structural variation analysis to characterize tumor suppressor rearrangements. Patient-matched archival primary tissue was analyzed identically. RESULTS: BRCA2, ATM, and CDK12 were the most frequently disrupted DDR genes in circulating tumor DNA (ctDNA), collectively mutated in 15% of evaluable cases. Biallelic gene disruption via second somatic alteration or mutant allele-specific imbalance was identified in 79% of patients. A further 2% exhibited homozygous BRCA2 deletions. Tumor suppressors TP53, RB1, and PTEN were controlled via disruptive chromosomal rearrangements in BRCA2-defective samples, but via oncogene amplification in context of CDK12 defects. TP53 mutations were rare in cases with ATM defects. DDR mutations were re-detected across 94% of serial ctDNA samples and in all available archival primary tissues, indicating they arose prior to metastatic progression. Loss of BRCA2 and CDK12, but not ATM, was associated with poor clinical outcomes. CONCLUSIONS: BRCA2, ATM, and CDK12 defects are each linked to distinct prostate cancer driver genomics and aggression. The consistency of DDR status in longitudinal samples and resolution of allelic status underscores the potential for ctDNA as a diagnostic tool.