Derivation and Validation of a 10-Year Risk Score for Symptomatic Abdominal Aortic Aneurysm: Cohort Study of Nearly 500 000 Individuals.

BACKGROUND: Abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA) can occur in patients who are ineligible for routine ultrasound screening. A simple AAA risk score was derived and compared with current guidelines used for ultrasound screening of AAA. METHODS: United Kingdom Biobank participants without previous AAA were split into a derivation cohort (n=401 820, 54.6% women, mean age 56.4 years, 95.5% White race) and validation cohort (n=83 816). Incident AAA was defined as first hospital inpatient diagnosis of AAA, death from AAA, or an AAA-related surgical procedure. A multivariable Cox model was developed in the derivation cohort into an AAA risk score that did not require blood biomarkers. To illustrate the sensitivity and specificity of the risk score for AAA, a theoretical threshold to refer patients for ultrasound at 0.25% 10-year risk was modeled. Discrimination of the risk score was compared with a model of US Preventive Services Task Force (USPSTF) AAA screening guidelines. RESULTS: In the derivation cohort, there were 1570 (0.40%) cases of AAA over a median 11.3 years of follow-up. Components of the AAA risk score were age (stratified by smoking status), weight (stratified by smoking status), antihypertensive and cholesterol-lowering medication use, height, diastolic blood pressure, baseline cardiovascular disease, and diabetes. In the validation cohort, over 10 years of follow-up, the C-index for the model of the USPSTF guidelines was 0.705 (95% CI, 0.678-0.733). The C-index of the risk score as a continuous variable was 0.856 (95% CI, 0.837-0.878). In the validation cohort, the USPSTF model yielded sensitivity 63.9% and specificity 71.3%. At the 0.25% 10-year risk threshold, the risk score yielded sensitivity 82.1% and specificity 70.7% while also improving the net reclassification index compared with the USPSTF model +0.176 (95% CI, 0.120-0.232). A combined model, whereby risk scoring was combined with the USPSTF model, also improved prediction compared with USPSTF alone (net reclassification index +0.101 [95% CI, 0.055-0.147]). CONCLUSIONS: In an asymptomatic general population, a risk score based on patient age, height, weight, and medical history may improve identification of asymptomatic patients at risk for clinical events from AAA. Further development and validation of risk scores to detect asymptomatic AAA are needed.

The impact of body mass index on breast cancer incidence among women at increased risk: an observational study from the International Breast Intervention Studies.

BACKGROUND: We investigated the association between body mass index (BMI) and breast cancer risk in women at increased risk of breast cancer receiving tamoxifen or anastrozole compared with placebo using data from the International Breast Cancer Intervention Studies [IBIS-I (tamoxifen) and IBIS-II (anastrozole)]. METHODS: Baseline BMI was calculated from nurse assessed height and weight measurements for premenopausal (n = 3138) and postmenopausal (n = 3731) women in IBIS-I and postmenopausal women in IBIS-II (n = 3787). The primary endpoint was any breast cancer event (invasive and ductal carcinoma in situ). We used Cox proportional hazards regression to calculate hazard ratios (HRs) for risk after adjustment for covariates. RESULTS: There were 582 (IBIS-I) and 248 (IBIS-II) breast cancer events [median follow-up = 16.2 years (IQR 14.4-17.7) and 10.9 years (IQR 8.8-13.0), respectively]. In adjusted analysis, women with a higher BMI had an increased breast cancer risk in both IBIS-I [HR = 1.06 per 5 kg/m2 (0.99-1.15), p = 0.114] and in IBIS-II [HR per 5 kg/m2 = 1.21 (1.09-1.35), p < 0.001]. In IBIS-I, the association between BMI and breast cancer risk was positive in postmenopausal women [adjusted HR per 5 kg/m2 = 1.14 (1.03-1.26), p = 0.01] but not premenopausal women [adjusted HR per 5 kg/m2 = 0.97 (0.86-1.09), p = 0.628]. There was no interaction between BMI and treatment group for breast cancer risk in either IBIS-I (p = 0.62) or IBIS-II (p = 0.55). CONCLUSIONS: Higher BMI is associated with greater breast cancer risk in postmenopausal women at increased risk of the disease, but no effect was observed in premenopausal women. The lack of interaction between BMI and treatment group on breast cancer risk suggests women are likely to experience benefit from preventive therapy regardless of their BMI. Trial registration Both trials were registered [IBIS-I: ISRCTN91879928 on 24/02/2006, retrospectively registered ( http://www.isrctn.com/ISRCTN91879928 ); IBIS-II: ISRCTN31488319 on 07/01/2005, retrospectively registered ( http://www.isrctn.com/ISRCTN31488319 )].

Preterm Birth and Antiretroviral Exposure in Infants HIV-exposed Uninfected.

BACKGROUND: Infants HIV-exposed and uninfected (IHEU) who are born to women living with HIV are at an increased risk of preterm birth (PTB). Antenatal exposure to certain maternal antiretroviral therapy (ART) regimens has been associated with PTB, although existing studies in this domain are limited and report discordant findings. We determined odds of PTB among IHEU by antenatal ART regimens and timing of exposure, adjusting for maternal risk factors. METHODS: We retrospectively studied IHEU born in British Columbia (BC), Canada between 1990 and 2012 utilizing provincial health administrative databases. We included data from a control group of infants HIV-unexposed and uninfected (IHUU) matched ~3:1 for each IHEU on age, sex and geocode. RESULTS: A total of 411 IHEU and 1224 IHUU were included in univariable analysis. PTB was more frequent among IHEU (20%) compared with IHUU (7%). IHEU were more often antenatally exposed to alcohol, tobacco, as well as prescription, nonprescription, and illicit drugs (IHEU: 36%, 8% and 35%; vs. IHUU: 3%, 1% and 9%, respectively). After adjusting for maternal substance use and smoking exposure, IHEU remained at increased odds of PTB [adjusted odds ratio (aOR) (95% CI): 2.66; (1.73, 4.08)] compared with matched IHUU controls. ART-exposed IHEU (excluding those with NRTIs only ART) had lower adjusted odds of PTB compared with IHEU with no maternal ART exposure, regardless of regimen [aOR range: 0.16-0.29 (0.02-0.95)]. Odds of PTB between IHEU exposed to ART from conception compared with IHEU exposed to ART postconception did not differ [aOR: 0.91 (0.47, 1.76)]; however, both groups experienced lower odds of PTB compared with IHEU with no maternal ART [preconception: aOR: 0.28 (0.08, 0.89); postconception: aOR 0.30 (0.11, 0.83)]. CONCLUSIONS: BC IHEU were over twice as likely to be born preterm compared with demographically matched controls. Maternal substance use in pregnancy modulated this risk; however, we found no adverse associations of PTB with exposure to antenatal ART.

Investigation of factors associated with spontaneous preterm birth in pregnant women living with HIV.

OBJECTIVE: To investigate factors contributing to preterm birth (PTB), including cART use and clinical and social determinants of health, in women living with HIV (WLWH) from British Columbia, Canada. DESIGN: Retrospective observational cohort. METHODS: We investigated the effect of cART use and other clinical and demographic factors on spontaneous PTB (sPTB) rates (<37 weeks gestational age) among 631 singleton pregnancies between 1997 and 2018. Exposure to cART was modelled in comparison to no exposure, exposure in the first trimester, and between regimens. Differences in sPTB risk were estimated using time-dependent Cox's proportional hazards models. RESULTS: Overall, the sPTB rate was 16%. Cumulative cART use was associated with lower risk of PTB (Wald test P = 0.02; hazard ratio = 0.98, 95% CI = 0.96-0.99) and specific cART regimens were not associated with increased risk of sPTB. Exposure in the first trimester was not associated with sPTB and for each week of cART exposure, the risk of sPTB decreased by 2%. In a multivariable model, HIV viral load and substance use remained associated with risk of sPTB, but not cART exposure. CONCLUSION: The sPTB rate among pregnant WLWH was more than three times higher than in the general population. However, sPTB was not related specifically to use of cART; in fact, cART appeared to reduce the risk of sPTB. Uncontrolled HIV replication and substance use were associated with increased risk of sPTB among pregnant WLWH. This emphasizes the important role of prenatal care, access to cART, and smoking cessation and harm reduction to reduce the risk of sPTB in WLWH.

Use of anastrozole for breast cancer prevention (IBIS-II): long-term results of a randomised controlled trial.

BACKGROUND: Two large clinical trials have shown a reduced rate of breast cancer development in high-risk women in the initial 5 years of follow-up after use of aromatase inhibitors (MAP.3 and International Breast Cancer Intervention Study II [IBIS-II]). Here, we report blinded long-term follow-up results for the IBIS-II trial, which compared anastrozole with placebo, with the objective of determining the efficacy of anastrozole for preventing breast cancer (both invasive and ductal carcinoma in situ) in the post-treatment period. METHODS: IBIS-II is an international, randomised, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial. Postmenopausal women at increased risk of developing breast cancer were recruited and were randomly assigned (1:1) to either anastrozole (1 mg per day, oral) or matching placebo daily for 5 years. After treatment completion, women were followed on a yearly basis to collect data on breast cancer incidence, death, other cancers, and major adverse events (cardiovascular events and fractures). The primary outcome was all breast cancer. FINDINGS: 3864 women were recruited between Feb 2, 2003, and Jan 31, 2012. 1920 women were randomly assigned to 5 years anastrozole and 1944 to placebo. After a median follow-up of 131 months (IQR 105-156), a 49% reduction in breast cancer was observed for anastrozole (85 vs 165 cases, hazard ratio [HR] 0·51, 95% CI 0·39-0·66, p<0·0001). The reduction was larger in the first 5 years (35 vs 89, 0·39, 0·27-0·58, p<0·0001), but still significant after 5 years (50 vs 76 new cases, 0·64, 0·45-0·91, p=0·014), and not significantly different from the first 5 years (p=0·087). Invasive oestrogen receptor-positive breast cancer was reduced by 54% (HR 0·46, 95% CI 0·33-0·65, p<0·0001), with a continued significant effect in the period after treatment. A 59% reduction in ductal carcinoma in situ was observed (0·41, 0·22-0·79, p=0·0081), especially in participants known to be oestrogen receptor-positive (0·22, 0·78-0·65, p<0·0001). No significant difference in deaths was observed overall (69 vs 70, HR 0·96, 95% CI 0·69-1·34, p=0·82) or for breast cancer (two anastrozole vs three placebo). A significant decrease in non-breast cancers was observed for anastrozole (147 vs 200, odds ratio 0·72, 95% CI 0·57-0·91, p=0·0042), owing primarily to non-melanoma skin cancer. No excess of fractures or cardiovascular disease was observed. INTERPRETATION: This analysis has identified a significant continuing reduction in breast cancer with anastrozole in the post-treatment follow-up period, with no evidence of new late side-effects. Further follow-up is needed to assess the effect on breast cancer mortality. FUNDING: Cancer Research UK, the National Health and Medical Research Council Australia, Breast Cancer Research Foundation, Sanofi Aventis, and AstraZeneca.

Final Analysis of the Prevention of Early Menopause Study (POEMS)/SWOG Intergroup S0230.

Premature menopause is a serious long-term side effect of chemotherapy. We evaluated long-term pregnancy and disease-related outcomes for patients in S0230/POEMS, a study in premenopausal women with stage I-IIIA estrogen receptor-negative, progesterone receptor-negative breast cancer to be treated with cyclophosphamide-containing chemotherapy. Women were randomly assigned to standard chemotherapy with or without goserelin, a gonadotropin-releasing hormone agonist, and were stratified by age and chemotherapy regimen. All statistical tests were two-sided. Of 257 patients, 218 were eligible and evaluable (105 in the chemotherapy + goserelin arm and 113 in the chemotherapy arm). More patients in the chemotherapy + goserelin arm reported at least one pregnancy vs the chemotherapy arm (5-year cumulative incidence = 23.1%, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 15.3% to 31.9%; and 12.2%, 95% CI = 6.8% to 19.2%, respectively; odds ratio = 2.34; 95% CI = 1.07 to 5.11; P = .03). Randomization to goserelin + chemotherapy was associated with a nonstatistically significant improvement in disease-free survival (hazard ratio [HR] = 0.55; 95% CI = 0.27 to 1.10; P = .09) and overall survival (HR = 0.45; 95% CI = 0.19 to 1.04; P = .06). In this long-term analysis of POEMS/S0230, we found continued evidence that patients randomly assigned to receive goserelin + chemotherapy were not only more likely to avoid premature menopause, but were also more likely to become pregnant without adverse effect on disease-related outcomes.

Neurodevelopmental outcomes and in-utero antiretroviral exposure in HIV-exposed uninfected children.

OBJECTIVES: To assess and compare neurodevelopmental disorders in HIV-exposed uninfected (HEU) and HIV-unexposed uninfected (HUU) children in British Columbia, Canada. To determine associations between these outcomes and in-utero exposure to antiretroviral drugs. DESIGN: Retrospective controlled cohort study. METHODS: Data were collected on 446 HEU children and 1323 HUU children (matched ∼1 : 3 for age, sex, and geocode) born between 1990 and 2012. Multivariable logistic regressions determined odds ratios of neurodevelopmental disorder diagnoses. RESULTS: HEUs had three times higher odds of being born preterm (P < 0.0001), and a more than two-fold increase in odds for autism, disturbance of emotions, hyperkinetic syndrome, and developmental delay compared with matched HUUs (P < 0.02) in unadjusted analysis. This association was reduced [adjusted neurodevelopmental disorder odds ratio (AOR) = 1.67; 95% confidence interval: 1.12-2.48; P = 0.011] after adjusting for maternal substance use and/or smoking (children born after April 2000). Regardless of antiretroviral exposure type (i.e. none, treatment with one or multiple drug classes), HEUs had higher odds of any neurodevelopmental disorders compared with matched HUUs; however, there was no evidence suggesting any specific classes of antiretroviral drugs or exposure durations increased their likelihood of neurodevelopmental disorders. CONCLUSION: The results suggest no adverse associations between antiretroviral drugs and neurodevelopmental disorders within antiretroviral-exposed HEU children in our cohort. Prevalence of neurodevelopmental disorders is higher in HEUs; however, maternal substance use plays a role, as could other environmental factors not captured. These findings highlight a need for holistic support for pregnant women as well as careful developmental monitoring of HEUs past infancy, and access to early interventions, particularly among those born preterm and those exposed to addictive substances.

Participant-Reported Symptoms and Their Effect on Long-Term Adherence in the International Breast Cancer Intervention Study I (IBIS I).

Purpose To assess the role of participant-reported symptoms on long-term adherence to preventive therapy in the United Kingdom sample of the International Breast Cancer Intervention Study (IBIS-I). IBIS-I was a randomized controlled trial that investigated the effectiveness of tamoxifen in reducing the risk of breast cancer among women at increased risk of the disease. Participants and Methods Women were randomly assigned to tamoxifen versus placebo (20 mg/day; n = 4,279). After 456 exclusions, 3,823 women were included in this analysis. Adherence (< 4.5 years or ≥ 4.5 years) was calculated using data from six monthly clinical visits. Analyses were adjusted for age, Tyrer-Cuzick risk, smoking, use of hormone replacement therapy, menopausal status, baseline menopausal symptoms, and treatment. Results Overall, 69.7% of women were adherent for at least 4.5 years (tamoxifen: 65.2% v placebo: 74.0%; P < .001). Differences in adherence between treatment arms were observed from 12 months onward (all P < .01) and were largest at 54 months. Dropout rates were highest in the first 12 to 18 months and decreased thereafter. Women reporting nausea/vomiting were less likely to be adherent in both the tamoxifen (odds ratio [OR], 0.57; 95% CI, 0.37 to 0.86; P = .007) and placebo (OR, 0.58; 95% CI, 0.37 to 0.93; P = .023) arms. Headaches were associated with adherence only in the placebo arm (OR, 0.62; 95% CI, 0.42 to 0.91; P = .016), whereas gynecologic symptoms were significant only in the tamoxifen arm (OR, 0.77; 95% CI, 0.62 to 0.97; P = .024). Effect sizes for each symptom on adherence were not significantly different between the treatment groups ( P > .05). In both treatment arms, we observed significant trends for lower adherence with increasing severity for all symptoms ( P < .01) except headaches ( P = .054). Conclusion In the IBIS-I trial, experiencing predefined symptoms in the first 6 months reduced long-term adherence. Effects were similar between treatment arms, suggesting that women were attributing age-related symptoms to preventive therapy. Interventions were required to support symptom management.

HER2 status predicts for upfront AI benefit: A TRANS-AIOG meta-analysis of 12,129 patients from ATAC, BIG 1-98 and TEAM with centrally determined HER2.

BACKGROUND: A meta-analysis of the effects of HER2 status, specifically within the first 2-3 years of adjuvant endocrine therapy, has the potential to inform patient selection for upfront aromatase inhibitor (AI) therapy or switching strategy tamoxifen followed by AI. The pre-existing standardisation of methodology for HER2 (immunohistochemistry/fluorescence in situ hybridization) facilitates analysis of existing data for this key marker. METHODS: Following a prospectively designed statistical analysis plan, patient data from 3 phase III trials Arimidex, Tamoxifen, Alone or in Combination Trial (ATAC), Breast International Group (BIG) 1-98 and Tamoxifen Exemestane Adjuvant Multicentre Trial (TEAM)] comparing an AI to tamoxifen during the first 2-3 years of adjuvant endocrine treatment were collected and a treatment-by-marker analysis of distant recurrence-free interval-censored at 2-3 years treatment - for HER2 status × AI versus tamoxifen treatment was performed to address the clinical question relating to efficacy of 'upfront' versus 'switch' strategies for AIs. RESULTS: A prospectively planned, patient-level data meta-analysis across 3 trials demonstrated a significant treatment (AI versus tamoxifen) by marker (HER2) interaction in a multivariate analysis; (interaction hazard ratio [HR] = 1.61, 95% CI 1.01-2.57; p < 0.05). Heterogeneity between trials did not reach statistical significance. The HER2 negative (HER2-ve) group gained greater benefit from AI versus tamoxifen (HR = 0.70, 95% CI 0.56-0.87) than the HER2-positive (HER2+ve) group (HR = 1.13, 95% CI 0.75-1.71). However, the small number of HER2+ve cases (n = 1092 across the 3 trials) and distant recurrences (n = 111) may explain heterogeneity between trials. CONCLUSIONS: A patient-level data meta-analysis demonstrated a significant interaction between HER2 status and treatment with AI versus tamoxifen in the first 2-3 years of adjuvant endocrine therapy. Patients with HER2-ve cancers experienced improved outcomes (distant relapse) when treated with upfront AI rather than tamoxifen, whilst patients with HER2+ve cancers fared no better or slightly worse in the first 2-3 years. However, the small number of HER2+ve cancers/events may explain a large degree of heterogeneity in the HER2+ve groups across all 3 trials. Other causes, perhaps related to subtle differences between AIs, cannot be excluded and warrant further exploration.

DNA methylation profile of triple negative breast cancer-specific genes comparing lymph node positive patients to lymph node negative patients.

Triple negative breast cancer (TNBC) is the most aggressive breast cancer subtype with no targeted treatment available. Our previous study identified 38 TNBC-specific genes with altered expression comparing tumour to normal samples. This study aimed to establish whether DNA methylation contributed to these expression changes in the same cohort as well as disease progression from primary breast tumour to lymph node metastasis associated with changes in the epigenome. We obtained DNA from 23 primary TNBC samples, 12 matched lymph node metastases, and 11 matched normal adjacent tissues and assayed for differential methylation profiles using Illumina HumanMethylation450 BeadChips. The results were validated in an independent cohort of 70 primary TNBC samples. The expression of 16/38 TNBC-specific genes was associated with alteration in DNA methylation. Novel methylation changes between primary tumours and lymph node metastases, as well as those associated with survival were identified. Altered methylation of 18 genes associated with lymph node metastasis were identified and validated. This study reveals the important role DNA methylation plays in altered gene expression of TNBC-specific genes and lymph node metastases. The novel insights into progression of TNBC to secondary disease may provide potential prognostic indicators for this hard-to-treat breast cancer subtype.

Treatment Adherence and Its Impact on Disease-Free Survival in the Breast International Group 1-98 Trial of Tamoxifen and Letrozole, Alone and in Sequence.

PURPOSE: To investigate adherence to endocrine treatment and its relationship with disease-free survival (DFS) in the Breast International Group (BIG) 1-98 clinical trial. METHODS: The BIG 1-98 trial is a double-blind trial that randomly assigned 6,193 postmenopausal women with hormone receptor-positive early breast cancer in the four-arm option to 5 years of tamoxifen (Tam), letrozole (Let), or the agents in sequence (Let-Tam, Tam-Let). This analysis included 6,144 women who received at least one dose of study treatment. Conditional landmark analyses and marginal structural Cox proportional hazards models were used to evaluate the relationship between DFS and treatment adherence (persistence [duration] and compliance with dosage). Competing risks regression was used to assess demographic, disease, and treatment characteristics of the women who stopped treatment early because of adverse events. RESULTS: Both aspects of low adherence (early cessation of letrozole and a compliance score of < 90%) were associated with reduced DFS (multivariable model hazard ratio, 1.45; 95% CI, 1.09 to 1.93; P = .01; and multivariable model hazard ratio, 1.61; 95% CI, 1.08 to 2.38; P = .02, respectively). Sequential treatments were associated with higher rates of nonpersistence (Tam-Let, 20.8%; Let-Tam, 20.3%; Tam 16.9%; Let 17.6%). Adverse events were the reason for most trial treatment early discontinuations (82.7%). Apart from sequential treatment assignment, reduced adherence was associated with older age, smoking, node negativity, or prior thromboembolic event. CONCLUSION: Both persistence and compliance are associated with DFS. Toxicity management and, for sequential treatments, patient and physician awareness, may improve adherence.

Adjuvant ovarian function suppression and cognitive function in women with breast cancer.

BACKGROUND: To examine the effect on cognitive function of adjuvant ovarian function suppression (OFS) for breast cancer. METHODS: The Suppression of Ovarian Function (SOFT) trial randomised premenopausal women with hormone receptor-positive breast cancer to 5 years adjuvant endocrine therapy with tamoxifen+OFS, exemestane+OFS or tamoxifen alone. The Co-SOFT substudy assessed objective cognitive function and patient reported outcomes at randomisation (T0), and 1 year later (T1); the primary endpoint was change in global cognitive function, measured by the composite objective cognitive function score. Data were compared for the pooled tamoxifen+OFS and exemestane+OFS groups vs the tamoxifen alone group using the Wilcoxon rank-sum test. RESULTS: Of 86 participants, 74 underwent both T0 and T1 cognitive testing; 54 randomised to OFS+ either tamoxifen (28) or exemestane (26) and 20 randomised to tamoxifen alone. There was no significant difference in the changes in the composite cognitive function scores between the OFS+ tamoxifen or exemestane groups and the tamoxifen group (mean±s.d., -0.21±0.92 vs -0.04±0.49, respectively, P=0.71, effect size=-0.20), regardless of prior chemotherapy status, and adjusting for baseline characteristics. CONCLUSIONS: The Co-SOFT study, although limited by small samples size, provides no evidence that adding OFS to adjuvant oral endocrine therapy substantially affects global cognitive function.

Annual Hazard Rates of Recurrence for Breast Cancer During 24 Years of Follow-Up: Results From the International Breast Cancer Study Group Trials I to V.

PURPOSE: Predicting the pattern of recurrence can aid in the development of targeted surveillance and treatment strategies. We identified patient populations that remain at risk for an event at a median follow-up of 24 years from the diagnosis of operable breast cancer. PATIENTS AND METHODS: International Breast Cancer Study Group clinical trials I to V randomly assigned 4,105 patients between 1978 and 1985. Annualized hazards were estimated for breast cancer-free interval (primary end point), disease-free survival, and overall survival. RESULTS: For the entire group, the annualized hazard of recurrence was highest during the first 5 years (10.4%), with a peak between years 1 and 2 (15.2%). During the first 5 years, patients with estrogen receptor (ER)--positive disease had a lower annualized hazard compared with those with ER-negative disease (9.9% v 11.5%; P = .01). However, beyond 5 years, patients with ER-positive disease had higher hazards (5 to 10 years: 5.4% v 3.3%; 10 to 15 years: 2.9% v 1.3%; 15 to 20 years: 2.8% v 1.2%; and 20 to 25 years: 1.3% v 1.4%; P < .001). Among patients with ER-positive disease, annualized hazards of recurrence remained elevated and fairly stable beyond 10 years, even for those with no axillary involvement (2.0%, 2.1%, and 1.1% for years 10 to 15, 15 to 20, and 20 to 25, respectively) and for those with one to three positive nodes (3.0%, 3.5%, and 1.5%, respectively). CONCLUSION: Patients with ER-positive breast cancer maintain a significant recurrence rate during extended follow up. Strategies for follow up and treatments to prevent recurrences may be most efficiently applied and studied in patients with ER-positive disease followed for a long period of time.

Aromatase inhibitor induced musculoskeletal syndrome: a significant problem with limited treatment options.

BACKGROUND: Aromatase inhibitor induced musculoskeletal syndrome is experienced by approximately half of women taking aromatase inhibitors, impairing quality of life and leading some to discontinue treatment. Evidence for effective treatments is lacking. We aimed to understand the manifestations and impact of this syndrome in the Australian breast cancer community, and strategies used for its management. METHODS: A survey invitation was sent to 2390 members of the Breast Cancer Network Australia Review and Survey Group in April 2014. The online questionnaire included 45 questions covering demographics, aromatase inhibitor use, clinical manifestations and risk factors for the aromatase inhibitor musculoskeletal syndrome, reasons for treatment discontinuation and efficacy of interventions used. RESULTS: Aromatase inhibitor induced musculoskeletal syndrome was reported by 302 (82 %) of 370 respondents. Twenty-seven percent had discontinued treatment for any reason and of these, 68 % discontinued because of the musculoskeletal syndrome. Eighty-one percent had used at least one intervention from the following three categories to manage the syndrome: doctor prescribed medications, over-the-counter/complementary medicines or alternative/non-drug therapies. Anti-inflammatories, paracetamol (acetaminophen) and yoga were most successful in relieving symptoms in each of the respective categories. Almost a third of respondents reported that one or more interventions helped prevent aromatase inhibitor discontinuation. However, approximately 20 % of respondents found no intervention effective in any category. CONCLUSION: We conclude that aromatase inhibitor induced musculoskeletal syndrome is a significant issue for Australian women and is an important reason for treatment discontinuation. Women use a variety of interventions to manage this syndrome; however, their efficacy appears limited.

Anastrozole-Induced Carpal Tunnel Syndrome: Results From the International Breast Cancer Intervention Study II Prevention Trial.

PURPOSE: Carpal tunnel syndrome (CTS) occurs when the median nerve is compressed at the wrist in the carpal tunnel. It has been suggested that hormonal risk factors may be involved in the pathogenesis of CTS, and a higher incidence of CTS has been reported in randomized clinical trials with aromatase inhibitors (AIs) compared with tamoxifen. PATIENTS AND METHODS: This was an exploratory analysis of the International Breast Cancer Intervention Study II, a double-blind randomized clinical trial in which women at increased risk of breast cancer were randomly assigned to receive anastrozole or placebo. This is the first report of risk factors for and characteristics of CTS in women taking an AI in a placebo-controlled trial. RESULTS: Overall, 96 participants with CTS were observed: 65 (3.4%) in the anastrozole arm and 31 (1.6%) in the placebo arm (odds ratio, 2.16 [1.40 to 3.33]; P < .001). Ten participants were reported as having severe CTS, of which eight were taking anastrozole (P = .08). Eighteen women (0.9%) in the anastrozole arm and six women (0.3%) in the placebo arm reported surgical intervention, which was significantly different (odds ratio, 3.06 [1.21 to 7.72], P = .018). Six women discontinued with the allocated treatment because of the onset of CTS. Apart from treatment allocation, a high body mass index and an a prior report of musculoskeletal symptoms after trial entry were the only other risk factors for CTS identified in these postmenopausal women. CONCLUSIONS: The use of anastrozole was associated with a higher incidence of CTS but few participants required surgery. Further investigations are warranted into the risk factors and treatment of AI-induced CTS.

Anastrozole versus tamoxifen for the prevention of locoregional and contralateral breast cancer in postmenopausal women with locally excised ductal carcinoma in situ (IBIS-II DCIS): a double-blind, randomised controlled trial.

BACKGROUND: Third-generation aromatase inhibitors are more effective than tamoxifen for preventing recurrence in postmenopausal women with hormone-receptor-positive invasive breast cancer. However, it is not known whether anastrozole is more effective than tamoxifen for women with hormone-receptor-positive ductal carcinoma in situ (DCIS). Here, we compare the efficacy of anastrozole with that of tamoxifen in postmenopausal women with hormone-receptor-positive DCIS. METHODS: In a double-blind, multicentre, randomised placebo-controlled trial, we recruited women who had been diagnosed with locally excised, hormone-receptor-positive DCIS. Eligible women were randomly assigned in a 1:1 ratio by central computer allocation to receive 1 mg oral anastrozole or 20 mg oral tamoxifen every day for 5 years. Randomisation was stratified by major centre or hub and was done in blocks (six, eight, or ten). All trial personnel, participants, and clinicians were masked to treatment allocation and only the trial statistician had access to treatment allocation. The primary endpoint was all recurrence, including recurrent DCIS and new contralateral tumours. All analyses were done on a modified intention-to-treat basis (in all women who were randomised and did not revoke consent for their data to be included) and proportional hazard models were used to compute hazard ratios and corresponding confidence intervals. This trial is registered at the ISRCTN registry, number ISRCTN37546358. RESULTS: Between March 3, 2003, and Feb 8, 2012, we enrolled 2980 postmenopausal women from 236 centres in 14 countries and randomly assigned them to receive anastrozole (1449 analysed) or tamoxifen (1489 analysed). Median follow-up was 7·2 years (IQR 5·6-8·9), and 144 breast cancer recurrences were recorded. We noted no statistically significant difference in overall recurrence (67 recurrences for anastrozole vs 77 for tamoxifen; HR 0·89 [95% CI 0·64-1·23]). The non-inferiority of anastrozole was established (upper 95% CI <1·25), but its superiority to tamoxifen was not (p=0·49). A total of 69 deaths were recorded (33 for anastrozole vs 36 for tamoxifen; HR 0·93 [95% CI 0·58-1·50], p=0·78), and no specific cause was more common in one group than the other. The number of women reporting any adverse event was similar between anastrozole (1323 women, 91%) and tamoxifen (1379 women, 93%); the side-effect profiles of the two drugs differed, with more fractures, musculoskeletal events, hypercholesterolaemia, and strokes with anastrozole and more muscle spasm, gynaecological cancers and symptoms, vasomotor symptoms, and deep vein thromboses with tamoxifen. CONCLUSIONS: No clear efficacy differences were seen between the two treatments. Anastrozole offers another treatment option for postmenopausal women with hormone-receptor-positive DCIS, which may be be more appropriate for some women with contraindications for tamoxifen. Longer follow-up will be necessary to fully evaluate treatment differences. FUNDING: Cancer Research UK, National Health and Medical Research Council Australia, Breast Cancer Research Fund, AstraZeneca, Sanofi Aventis.

Parameter Heterogeneity In Breast Cancer Cost Regressions - Evidence From Five European Countries.

We investigate parameter heterogeneity in breast cancer 1-year cumulative hospital costs across five European countries as part of the EuroHOPE project. The paper aims to explore whether conditional mean effects provide a suitable representation of the national variation in hospital costs. A cohort of patients with a primary diagnosis of invasive breast cancer (ICD-9 codes 174 and ICD-10 C50 codes) is derived using routinely collected individual breast cancer data from Finland, the metropolitan area of Turin (Italy), Norway, Scotland and Sweden. Conditional mean effects are estimated by ordinary least squares for each country, and quantile regressions are used to explore heterogeneity across the conditional quantile distribution. Point estimates based on conditional mean effects provide a good approximation of treatment response for some key demographic and diagnostic specific variables (e.g. age and ICD-10 diagnosis) across the conditional quantile distribution. For many policy variables of interest, however, there is considerable evidence of parameter heterogeneity that is concealed if decisions are based solely on conditional mean results. The use of quantile regression methods reinforce the need to consider beyond an average effect given the greater recognition that breast cancer is a complex disease reflecting patient heterogeneity.

Novel genes associated with lymph node metastasis in triple negative breast cancer.

Triple negative breast cancer (TNBC) is the most aggressive breast cancer subtype with the worst prognosis and no targeted treatments. TNBC patients are more likely to develop metastases and relapse than patients with other breast cancer subtypes. We aimed to identify TNBC-specific genes and genes associated with lymph node metastasis, one of the first signs of metastatic spread. A total of 33 TNBCs were used; 17 of which had matched normal adjacent tissues available, and 15 with matched lymph node metastases. Gene expression microarray analysis was used to reveal genes that were differentially expressed between these groups. We identified and validated 66 genes that are significantly altered when comparing tumours to normal adjacent samples. Further, we identified 83 genes that are associated with lymph node metastasis and correlated these with miRNA-expression. Pathway analysis revealed their involvement in DNA repair, recombination and cell death, chromosomal instability and other known cancer-related pathways. Finally, four genes were identified that were specific for TNBC, of which one was associated with overall survival. This study has identified novel genes involved in LN metastases in TNBC and genes that are TNBC specific that may be used as treatment targets or prognostic indicators in the future.

Estrogen Receptor Expression in 21-Gene Recurrence Score Predicts Increased Late Recurrence for Estrogen-Positive/HER2-Negative Breast Cancer.

PURPOSE: To identify the individual genes or gene modules that lead to the OncoptypeDx 21-gene recurrence score's reduced performance after 5 years and thereby identify indices of residual risk that may guide selection of patients for extended adjuvant therapy. EXPERIMENTAL DESIGN: We conducted a retrospective assessment of the relationship between (i) the individual genes and gene modules of the Recurrence Score and (ii) early (0-5 years) and late (5-10 years) recurrence rates in 1,125 postmenopausal patients with primary estrogen receptor-positive breast cancer treated with anastrozole or tamoxifen in the Arimidex, Tamoxifen, Alone or Combined (ATAC) randomized clinical trial. RESULTS: In the HER2-negative population (n = 1,009), estimates of recurrence risk were similar between years 0-5 and 5-10 for proliferation and invasion modules but markedly different for the estrogen module and genes within it (all split at the median): for low estrogen module, annual recurrence rates were similar across the two time windows (2.06% vs. 2.46%, respectively); for high estrogen module, annual rates were 1.14% versus 2.72%, respectively (P interaction = 0.004). Estrogen receptor transcript levels showed inverse prediction across the time windows: HR, 0.88 (0.73-1.07) and 1.19 (0.99-1.43), respectively (P interaction = 0.03). Similar time-, module-, and estrogen-dependent relationships were seen for distant recurrence. CONCLUSIONS: Patients with tumors with high estrogen receptor transcript levels benefit most from 5 years' endocrine therapy but show increased recurrence rates after 5 years and may benefit from extended therapy. Improved prognostic profiles may be created by considering period of treatment and follow-up time.