Percutaneous repair of moderate-to-severe or severe functional mitral regurgitation in patients with symptomatic heart failure: Baseline characteristics of patients in the RESHAPE-HF2 trial and comparison to COAPT and MITRA-FR trials.

AIM: The RESHAPE-HF2 trial is designed to assess the efficacy and safety of the MitraClip device system for the treatment of clinically important functional mitral regurgitation (FMR) in patients with heart failure (HF). This report describes the baseline characteristics of patients enrolled in the RESHAPE-HF2 trial compared to those enrolled in the COAPT and MITRA-FR trials. METHODS AND RESULTS: The RESHAPE-HF2 study is an investigator-initiated, prospective, randomized, multicentre trial including patients with symptomatic HF, a left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) between 20% and 50% with moderate-to-severe or severe FMR, for whom isolated mitral valve surgery was not recommended. Patients were randomized 1:1 to a strategy of delivering or withholding MitraClip. Of 506 patients randomized, the mean age of the patients was 70 ± 10 years, and 99 of them (20%) were women. The median EuroSCORE II was 5.3 (2.8-9.0) and median plasma N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) was 2745 (1407-5385) pg/ml. Most patients were prescribed beta-blockers (96%), diuretics (96%), angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors/angiotensin receptor blockers/angiotensin receptor-neprilysin inhibitors (82%) and mineralocorticoid receptor antagonists (82%). The use of sodium-glucose cotransporter 2 inhibitors was rare (7%). Cardiac resynchronization therapy (CRT) devices had been previously implanted in 29% of patients. Mean LVEF, left ventricular end-diastolic volume and effective regurgitant orifice area (EROA) were 31 ± 8%, 211 ± 76 ml and 0.25 ± 0.08 cm2, respectively, whereas 44% of patients had mitral regurgitation severity of grade 4+. Compared to patients enrolled in COAPT and MITRA-FR, those enrolled in RESHAPE-HF2 were less likely to have mitral regurgitation grade 4+ and, on average, HAD lower EROA, and plasma NT-proBNP and higher estimated glomerular filtration rate, but otherwise had similar age, comorbidities, CRT therapy and LVEF. CONCLUSION: Patients enrolled in RESHAPE-HF2 represent a third distinct population where MitraClip was tested in, that is one mainly comprising of patients with moderate-to-severe FMR instead of only severe FMR, as enrolled in the COAPT and MITRA-FR trials. The results of RESHAPE-HF2 will provide crucial insights regarding broader application of the transcatheter edge-to-edge repair procedure in clinical practice.

Evaluating palliative care case conferences in primary care for patients with advanced non-malignant chronic conditions: a cluster-randomised controlled trial (KOPAL).

BACKGROUND: Patients with congestive heart failure (CHF), chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) and dementia are underrepresented in specialist palliative home care (SPHC). However, the complexity of their conditions requires collaboration between general practitioners (GPs) and SPHC teams and timely integration into SPHC to effectively meet their needs. OBJECTIVE: To facilitate joint palliative care planning and the timely transfer of patients with advanced chronic non-malignant conditions to SPHC. METHODS: A two-arm, unblinded, cluster-randomised controlled trial. 49 GP practices in northern Germany were randomised using web-based block randomisation. We included patients with advanced CHF, COPD and/or dementia. The KOPAL intervention consisted of a SPHC nurse-patient consultation followed by an interprofessional telephone case conference between SPHC team and GP. The primary outcome was the number of hospital admissions 48 weeks after baseline. Secondary analyses examined the effects on health-related quality of life and self-rated health status, as measured by the EuroQol 5D scale. RESULTS: A total of 172 patients were included in the analyses. 80.4% of GP practices had worked with SHPC before, most of them exclusively for cancer patients. At baseline, patients reported a mean EQ-VAS of 48.4, a mean quality of life index (EQ-5D-5L) of 0.63 and an average of 0.80 hospital admissions in the previous year. The intervention did not significantly reduce hospital admissions (incidence rate ratio = 0.79, 95%CI: [0.49, 1.26], P = 0.31) or the number of days spent in hospital (incidence rate ratio = 0.65, 95%CI: [0.28, 1.49], P = 0.29). There was also no significant effect on quality of life (∆ = -0.02, 95%CI: [-0.09, 0.05], P = 0.53) or self-rated health (∆ = -2.48, 95%CI: [-9.95, 4.99], P = 0.51). CONCLUSIONS: The study did not show the hypothesised effect on hospitalisations and health-related quality of life. Future research should focus on refining this approach, with particular emphasis on optimising the timing of case conferences and implementing discussed changes to treatment plans, to improve collaboration between GPs and SPHC teams.

Randomized investigation of the MitraClip device in heart failure: Design and rationale of the RESHAPE-HF2 trial design.

AIMS: The safety and effectiveness of the MitraClip device to treat functional mitral regurgitation (FMR) has been tested in previous clinical trials yielding somewhat heterogeneous results in heart failure (HF) patients. Over time, the MitraClip device system has been modified and clinical practice evolved to consider also less severely diseased HF patients with FMR for this therapeutic option. The RESHAPE-HF2 trial aims to assess the safety and effectiveness of the MitraClip device system on top of medical therapy considered optimal in the treatment of clinically significant FMR in symptomatic patients with chronic HF. METHODS: The RESHAPE-HF2 is an investigator-initiated, prospective, randomized, parallel-controlled, multicentre trial designed to evaluate the use of the MitraClip device (used in the most up-to-date version as available at sites) plus optimal standard of care therapy (device group) compared to optimal standard of care therapy alone (control group). Eligible subjects have signs and symptoms of HF (New York Heart Association [NYHA] class II-IV despite optimal therapy), and have moderate-to-severe or severe FMR, as confirmed by a central echocardiography core laboratory; have an ejection fraction between ≥20% and ≤50% (initially 15-35% for NYHA class II patients, and 15-45% for NYHA class III/IV patients); have been adequately treated per applicable standards, and have received appropriate revascularization and cardiac resynchronization therapy, if eligible; had a HF hospitalization or elevated natriuretic peptides (B-type natriuretic peptide [BNP] ≥300 pg/ml or N-terminal proBNP ≥1000 pg/ml) in the last 90 days; and in whom isolated mitral valve surgery is not a recommended treatment option. The trial has three primary endpoints, which are these: (i) the composite rate of total (first and recurrent) HF hospitalizations and cardiovascular death during 24 months of follow-up, (ii) the rate of total (i.e. first and recurrent) HF hospitalizations within 24 months, and (iii) the change from baseline to 12 months in the Kansas City Cardiomyopathy Questionnaire overall score. The three primary endpoints will be analysed using the Hochberg procedure to control the familywise type I error rate across the three hypotheses. CONCLUSIONS: The RESHAPE-HF2 trial will provide sound evidence on the MitraClip device and its effects in HF patients with FMR. The recruitment was recently completed with 506 randomized patients.

Transition from asymptomatic to symptomatic systolic chronic heart failure: rationale and design of TransitionCHF.

AIMS: Chronic systolic heart failure (CHF) is a major health burden. A relevant number of patients shows asymptomatic left ventricular dysfunction (ALVSD) before symptomatic CHF or becomes asymptomatic after initiating heart failure therapy. Clinical course, prognosis, and response to pharmacological and device-based treatment are largely unknown in these two distinct groups of patients. Current pharmacological and interventional therapies do neither properly address the underlying pathophysiology nor prevent malignant loss of function. New therapeutic paradigms are needed to stop the progression from asymptomatic to symptomatic heart failure. Key questions are what causes progression of clinically asymptomatic New York Heart Association (NYHA) I heart failure to overt heart failure (>NYHA I) in some but not all patients and the underlying reasons for this transition. This requires the identification of disease mechanisms and biomarkers that predict outcome in well-defined cohorts for innovative preclinical and clinical trials. METHODS AND RESULTS: TransitionCHF is a prospective, multicentre, longitudinal pathophysiological evaluation cohort study in patients with asymptomatic systolic dysfunction NYHA I and left ventricular ejection fraction ≤40%. The cohort comprises both incidental findings and patients who had become asymptomatic after a previous symptomatic event. TransitionCHF has recruited 1000 patients with ALVSD caused by various aetiologies in 20 university heart failure clinics across Germany. Both patients with and without comorbidities at study entry will be recruited. Patients will be systematically investigated and followed up annually over the course of the study. The primary composite endpoint is time to hospitalization for heart failure and cardiovascular death. The secondary endpoints assess time to all-cause mortality, to cardiovascular mortality, to heart failure mortality, to all-cause hospitalization, to heart failure hospitalization, and to recurrent heart failure hospitalizations, as well as time to assist device implantation/transplantation. Additional investigations focusing on biomarkers, comorbidities, gender aspects, nutrition, and functional parameters including quality of life will be performed. CONCLUSIONS: TransitionCHF will provide a more thorough pathophysiological understanding of the progression of asymptomatic systolic dysfunction into symptomatic heart failure that will help develop therapies tailored to prevent progressive heart failure.

A diagnostic phase III/IV seamless design to investigate the diagnostic accuracy and clinical effectiveness using the example of HEDOS and HEDOS II.

The development process of medical devices can be streamlined by combining different study phases. Here, for a diagnostic medical device, we present the combination of confirmation of diagnostic accuracy (phase III) and evaluation of clinical effectiveness regarding patient-relevant endpoints (phase IV) using a seamless design. This approach is used in the Thyroid HEmorrhage DetectOr Study (HEDOS & HEDOS II) investigating a post-operative hemorrhage detector named ISAR-M THYRO® in patients after thyroid surgery. Data from the phase III trial are reused as external controls in the control group of the phase IV trial. An unblinded interim analysis is planned between the two study stages which includes a recalculation of the sample size for the phase IV part after completion of the first stage of the seamless design. The study concept presented here is the first seamless design proposed in the field of diagnostic studies. Hence, the aim of this work is to emphasize the statistical methodology as well as feasibility of the proposed design in relation to the planning and implementation of the seamless design. Seamless designs can accelerate the overall trial duration and increase its efficiency in terms of sample size and recruitment. However, careful planning addressing numerous methodological and procedural challenges is necessary for successful implementation as well as agreement with regulatory bodies.

Serum glial fibrillary acidic protein and disability progression in progressive multiple sclerosis.

OBJECTIVE: Progression prediction is a significant unmet need in people with progressive multiple sclerosis (pwPMS). Studies on glial fibrillary acidic protein (GFAP) have either been limited to single center with relapsing MS or were based solely on Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS), which limits its generalizability to state-of-the-art clinical settings and trials applying combined outcome parameters. METHODS: Serum GFAP and NfL (neurofilament light chain) were investigated in EmBioProMS participants with primary (PP) or secondary progressive MS. Six months confirmed disability progression (CDP) was defined using combined outcome parameters (EDSS, timed-25-foot walk test (T25FW), and nine-hole-peg-test (9HPT)). RESULTS: 243 subjects (135 PPMS, 108 SPMS, age 55.5, IQR [49.7-61.2], 135 female, median follow-up: 29.3 months [17.9-40.9]) were included. NfL (age-) and GFAP (age- and sex-) adjusted Z scores were higher in pwPMS compared to HC (p < 0.001 for both). 111 (32.8%) CDP events were diagnosed in participants with ≥3 visits (n = 169). GFAP Z score >3 was associated with higher risk for CDP in participants with low NfL Z score (i.e., ≤1.0) (HR: 2.38 [1.12-5.08], p = 0.025). In PPMS, GFAP Z score >3 was associated with higher risk for CDP (HR: 2.88 [1.21-6.84], p = 0.016). Risk was further increased in PPMS subjects with high GFAP when NfL is low (HR: 4.31 [1.53-12.13], p = 0.006). INTERPRETATION: Blood GFAP may help identify pwPPMS at risk of progression. Combination of high GFAP and low NfL levels could distinguish non-active pwPMS with particularly high progression risk.

Association of health behaviour and clinical manifestation in early multiple sclerosis in Germany - Baseline characteristics of the POWER@MS1 randomised controlled trial.

BACKGROUND: Receiving a multiple sclerosis (MS) diagnosis is a significant stressor. Therefore, highly individualised counselling is needed, especially in early MS. Modifiable risk factors (e.g. smoking and obesity) are gaining relevance in MS. Despite evidence for worse MS-related health outcomes, prevalence of adverse health behaviours, such as smoking and physical inactivity, is high across all MS stages. However, knowledge regarding health behaviours as well as their association with MS-related health outcomes among newly diagnosed PwMS in Germany is scarce. Currently, the efficacy of an interactive digital lifestyle management application intended to be used as an add-on to standard care among newly diagnosed PwMS in Germany is evaluated in an ongoing multicentre randomised controlled trial (RCT) ('POWER@MS1'). OBJECTIVES: To describe baseline disease characteristics and health behaviours of the POWER@MS1 cohort and investigate associations between MS characteristics, quality of life (QOL), health behaviours and intention to optimise health behaviour habits. METHODS: This study included 234 persons with early MS from 20 study centres located across Germany who participate in the POWER@MS1 RCT. Participants were recruited by treating neurologists from different regions and health-care settings in Germany. Baseline data was obtained using paper-based questionnaires and a web-based healthy diet screener between July 2019 and end of March 2022 and analysed descriptively. RESULTS: In this early MS cohort (mean disease duration 4 months), a screening tool showed severe symptoms of anxiety in 15 % of the participants. Better means for stress management appeared to be particularly relevant for the whole cohort. Moreover, 19 % were current smokers, 15 % were obese and 36 % were insufficiently physically active. On average, participants only moderately adhered to dietary guidelines for recommended intake of key food groups (e.g. vegetables, fruits and fatty marine fish). Higher EDSS scores were associated with approximately 20 % higher T2-lesion burden (rate ratio RR=1.2, p<0.001) and 13 % higher relapse rate (RR=1.13,p=0.02) per EDSS disability level. Moreover, a higher T2-lesion burden was associated with current smoking (RR=0.76, p=0.033), resulting in approximately 24 % less T2-lesions at disease onset among non-smokers. In addition, smoking was associated with unhealthier dietary habits according to lower diet scores (linear regression coefficient ß=-1.27, p<0.001). Higher EDSS scores (ß=0.19,p<0.001) and higher BMI (ß=0.013,p=0.03) were associated with higher HAQUAMS (lower QOL). Further, lower diet scores (ß=-0.044,p=0.039) were associated with lower QOL. Moreover, higher HAQUAMS (lower QOL) indicated a higher intention to optimise stress management (ß=0.98,p<0.001), physical activity (ß=0.74,p=0.046) and sleep behaviour (ß=1.82,p<0.001). Further, higher intention to optimise stress management was accounted for by higher EDSS scores (ß=0.39,p=0.004) and a higher number of T2-lesions (ß=0.029,p=0.015) in this newly diagnosed MS cohort. CONCLUSION: Results indicate a clear need for modifications of health behaviours among newly diagnosed PwMS participating in POWER@MS1. Individualised psychological and health behaviour counselling appears to be an important factor in treatment, also for similar early MS cohorts and particularly in those who demonstrate a more severe disease in clinical and MRI metrics.

Cost-effectiveness of a specialist palliative care nurse-patient consultation followed by an interprofessional case conference for patients with non-oncological palliative care needs: results of the KOPAL trial.

BACKGROUND: Worldwide, progressive chronic, non-malignant diseases are highly prevalent. Especially with increasing age, they are characterised by high hospitalisation rates and high healthcare costs. Improved interprofessional collaboration between general practitioners (GPs) and specialist palliative home care (SPHC) teams might reduce hospitalisation while improving symptoms and quality of life, or preventing them from deterioration. The aim of this study was to examine the cost-effectiveness of a newly developed intervention in patients with advanced chronic, non-malignant diseases consisting of a structured palliative care nurse-patient consultation followed by an interprofessional telephone case conference. METHODS: The analysis was based on data from 172 participants of the KOPAL multi-centre, cluster randomised controlled trial. Patients with advanced congestive heart failure (CHF), chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), or dementia were randomised into intervention group (IG) and control group (CG, usual care). Cost-effectiveness was examined over 48 weeks from a societal and healthcare payer's perspective. Effects were quantified as quality-adjusted life years (QALYs, EQ-5D-5L). Incremental cost-effectiveness ratios were calculated and cost-effectiveness acceptability curves were constructed. RESULTS: Baseline imbalances in costs and effects could be observed between IG and CG. After adjusting for these imbalances and compared to the CG, mean costs in the IG were non-significantly higher from a societal and lower from a payer's perspective. On the effect side, the IG had marginally lower mean QALYs. The results were characterized by high statistical uncertainty, indicated by large confidence intervals for the cost and effect differences between groups and probabilities of cost-effectiveness between 18% and 65%, depending on the perspective and willingness-to-pay. CONCLUSIONS: Based on the results of this study, the cost-effectiveness of the KOPAL intervention was uncertain. The results highlighted (methodological) challenges of economic evaluations in patients with chronic, non-malignant diseases related to sample size, heterogeneity of participants, and the way the intervention effectiveness is typically captured in economic evaluations.

Efficacy of ferric carboxymaltose in heart failure with iron deficiency: an individual patient data meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Whereas a beneficial effect of intravenous ferric carboxymaltose (FCM) on symptoms and exercise capacity among patients with iron deficiency and heart failure (HF) has been consistently demonstrated, the effects of treatment on clinical events remain the subject of research. This meta-analysis aimed to characterize the effects of FCM therapy on hospitalizations and mortality. METHODS: Patient-level data from randomized, placebo-controlled FCM trials including adults with HF and iron deficiency with ≥52 weeks follow-up were analysed. The co-primary efficacy endpoints were (i) composite of total/recurrent cardiovascular hospitalizations and cardiovascular death and (ii) composite of total HF hospitalizations and cardiovascular death, through 52 weeks. Key secondary endpoints included individual composite endpoint components. Event rates were analysed using a negative binomial model. Treatment-emergent adverse events were also examined. RESULTS: Three FCM trials with a total of 4501 patients were included. Ferric carboxymaltose was associated with a significantly reduced risk of co-primary endpoint 1 (rate ratio 0.86; 95% confidence interval 0.75-0.98; P = .029; Cochran Q: 0.008), with a trend towards a reduction of co-primary endpoint 2 (rate ratio 0.87; 95% confidence interval 0.75-1.01; P = .076; Cochran Q: 0.024). Treatment effects appeared to result from reduced hospitalization rates, not improved survival. Treatment appeared to have a good safety profile and was well tolerated. CONCLUSIONS: In iron-deficient patients with HF with reduced left ventricular ejection fraction, intravenous FCM was associated with significantly reduced risk of hospital admissions for HF and cardiovascular causes, with no apparent effect on mortality.

Patient-reported ability to walk 4 m and to wash: New clinical endpoints and predictors of survival in patients with pre-terminal cancer.

BACKGROUND: Maintaining the ability to perform self-care is a critical goal in patients with cancer. We assessed whether the patient-reported ability to walk 4 m and wash oneself predict survival in patients with pre-terminal cancer. METHODS: We performed a prospective observational study on 169 consecutive hospitalized patients with cancer (52% female, 64 ± 12 years) and an estimated 1-12 months prognosis at an academic, inpatient palliative care unit. Patients answered functional questions for 'today', 'last week', and 'last month', performed patient-reported outcomes (PROs), and physical function assessments. RESULTS: Ninety-two (54%) patients reported the ability to independently walk 4 m and 100 (59%) to wash 'today'. The median number of days patients reported the ability to walk 4 m and wash were 6 (IQR 0-7) and 7 (0-7) days ('last week'); and 27 (5-30) and 26 (10-30) days ('last month'). In the last week, 32% of patients were unable to walk 4 m on every day and 10% could walk on 1-3 days; 30% were unable to wash on every day and 10% could wash on 1-3 days. In the last months, 14% of patients were unable to walk 4 m on every day and 10% could only walk on 1-10 days; 12% were unable to wash on every day and 11% could wash on 1-10 days. In patients who could walk 'today' average 4 m gait speed was 0.78 ± 0.28 m/s. Patients who reported impaired walking and washing experienced more symptoms (dyspnoea, exertion, and oedema) and decreased physical function (higher Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group Performance Status, and lower Karnofsky Performance Status and hand-grip strength [unable vs. able to walk 'today': 205 ± 87 vs. 252 ± 78 Newton, P = 0.001; unable vs. able to wash 'today': 204 ± 86 vs. 250 ± 80 Newton, P = 0.001]). During the 27 months of observation, 152 (90%) patients died (median survival 46 days). In multivariable Cox proportional hazards regression analyses, all tested parameters were independent predictors of survival: walking 4 m 'today' (HR 0.63, P = 0.015), 'last week' (per 1 day: HR 0.93, P = 0.011), 'last month' (per 1 day: HR 0.98, P = 0.012), 4 m gait speed (per 1 m/s: HR 0.45, P = 0.002), and washing 'today' (HR 0.67, P = 0.024), 'last week (per 1 day HR 0.94, p=0.019), and 'last month' (per 1 day HR 0.99, P = 0.040). Patients unable to walk and wash experienced the shortest survival and most reduced functional status. CONCLUSIONS: In patients with pre-terminal cancer, the self-reported ability to walk 4 m and wash were independent predictors of survival and associated with decreased functional status.

Effect of intravenous iron replacement on recurrent heart failure hospitalizations and cardiovascular mortality in patients with heart failure and iron deficiency: A Bayesian meta-analysis.

AIMS: Iron deficiency is common in patients with heart failure (HF) and reduced ejection fraction (HFrEF) and is associated with a poor prognosis. Whether intravenous iron replacement improves recurrent HF hospitalizations and cardiovascular mortality of these patients is uncertain although several trials were conducted. Moreover, none of the trials were powered to assess the effect of intravenous iron in clinically important subgroups. Therefore, we conducted a Bayesian analysis to derive precise estimates of the effect of intravenous iron replacement on recurrent HF hospitalizations and cardiovascular mortality in iron-deficient HFrEF patients using consistent subgroup definitions across trials. METHODS AND RESULTS: Individual participant data were used from the FAIR-HF (n = 459), CONFIRM-HF (n = 304) and AFFIRM-AHF (n = 1108) trials. These data were re-analysed following as closely as possible the approach taken in the analyses of IRONMAN (n = 1137), for which study level data were used. Definitions of outcomes and subgroups from the FAIR-HF, CONFIRM-HF and AFFIRM-AHF were matched with those used in IRONMAN. The primary endpoint was recurrent HF hospitalizations and cardiovascular mortality. The analysis of recurrent events was based on rate ratios (RR) derived from the Lin-Wei-Yang-Ying model, and the data were pooled using Bayesian random-effects meta-analysis. Compared with placebo, intravenous iron significantly reduced the rates of recurrent HF hospitalizations and cardiovascular mortality (RR 0.73, 95% credible interval [CI] 0.48-0.99; between-trial heterogeneity tau = 0.16). The pooled treatment effects did not provide evidence for any differential effects for subgroups based on sex (ratio of rate ratios [RRR] 1.49 [95% CI 0.95-2.37], age <69.4 vs. ≥69.4 years) (RRR 0.68 [0.40-1.15]), ischaemic versus non-ischaemic aetiology of HF (RRR 0.73 [0.42-1.33]), transferrin saturation <20% vs. ≥20% (RRR 0.75 [0.40-1.34]), estimated glomerular filtration rate ≤60 versus >60 ml/min/1.73 m2 (RRR 0.97 [0.56-1.68]), haemoglobin <11.8 versus ≥11.8 (RRR 0.95 [0.53-1.60]), ferritin <35 versus ≥35 µg/L (RRR 1.26 [0.72-2.48]) and New York Heart Association class II versus III/IV (RRR 0.91 [0.54-1.56]). CONCLUSIONS: Treatment of iron-deficient HFrEF patients with intravenous iron - namely with ferric carboxymaltose or ferric derisomaltose - results in significant reduction in recurrent HF hospitalizations and cardiovascular mortality. Results were nominally consistent across the subgroups studied, but for several of these subgroups uncertainty remains present.

Minimal Clinically Important Differences in 6-Minute Walk Test in Patients With HFrEF and Iron Deficiency.

BACKGROUND: The 6-minute walk test (6MWT) is widely used to measure exercise capacity; however, the magnitude of change that is clinically meaningful for individuals is not well established in heart failure with reduced ejection fraction (HFrEF). OBJECTIVE: To calculate the minimal clinically important difference (MCID) for change in exercise capacity in the 6MWT in iron-deficient populations with HFrEF. METHODS: In this pooled secondary analysis of the FAIR-HF and CONFIRM-HF trials, mean changes in the 6MWT from baseline to weeks 12 and 24 were calculated and calibrated against the Patient Global Assessment (PGA) tool (clinical anchor) to derive MCIDs in improvement and deterioration. RESULTS: Of 760 patients included in the 2 trials, 6MWT and PGA data were available for 680 (89%) and 656 (86%) patients at weeks 12 and 24, respectively. The mean 6MWT distance at baseline was 281 ± 103 meters. There was a modest correlation between changes in 6MWT and PGA from baseline to week 12 (r = 0.31; P < 0.0001) and week 24 (r = 0.43; P < 0.0001). Respective estimates (95% confidence intervals) of MCID in 6MWT at weeks 12 and 24 were 14 meters (5;23) and 15 meters (3;27) for a "little improvement" (vs no change), 20 meters (10;30) and 24 meters (12;36) for moderate improvement vs a "little improvement,", -11 meters (-32;9.2) and -31 meters (-53;-8) for a "little deterioration" (vs no change), and -84 meters (-144;-24) and -69 meters (-118;-20) for "moderate deterioration" vs a "little deterioration". CONCLUSIONS: The MCID for improvement in exercise capacity in the 6MWT was 14 meters-15 meters in patients with HFrEF and iron deficiency. These MCIDs can aid clinical interpretation of study data.

A Guide to Selecting Flexible Survival Models to Inform Economic Evaluations of Cancer Immunotherapies.

OBJECTIVES: Parametric models are routinely used to estimate the benefit of cancer drugs beyond trial follow-up. The advent of immune checkpoint inhibitors has challenged this paradigm, and emerging evidence suggests that more flexible survival models, which can better capture the shapes of complex hazard functions, might be needed for these interventions. Nevertheless, there is a need for an algorithm to help analysts decide whether flexible models are required and, if so, which should be chosen for testing. This position article has been produced to bridge this gap. METHODS: A virtual advisory board comprising 7 international experts with in-depth knowledge of survival analysis and health technology assessment was held in summer 2021. The experts discussed 24 questions across 6 topics: the current survival model selection procedure, data maturity, heterogeneity of treatment effect, cure and mortality, external evidence, and additions to existing guidelines. Their responses culminated in an algorithm to inform selection of flexible survival models. RESULTS: The algorithm consists of 8 steps and 4 questions. Key elements include the systematic identification of relevant external data, using clinical expert input at multiple points in the selection process, considering the future and the observed hazard functions, assessing the potential for long-term survivorship, and presenting results from all plausible models. CONCLUSIONS: This algorithm provides a systematic, evidence-based approach to justify the selection of survival extrapolation models for cancer immunotherapies. If followed, it should reduce the risk of selecting inappropriate models, partially addressing a key area of uncertainty in the economic evaluation of these agents.

Direct proteomic and high-resolution microscopy biopsy analysis identifies distinct ventricular fates in severe aortic stenosis.

The incidence of aortic valve stenosis (AS), the most common reason for aortic valve replacement (AVR), increases with population ageing. While untreated AS is associated with high mortality, different hemodynamic subtypes range from normal left-ventricular function to severe heart failure. However, the molecular nature underlying four different AS subclasses, suggesting vastly different myocardial fates, is unknown. Here, we used direct proteomic analysis of small left-ventricular biopsies to identify unique protein expression profiles and subtype-specific AS mechanisms. Left-ventricular endomyocardial biopsies were harvested from patients during transcatheter AVR, and inclusion criteria were based on echocardiographic diagnosis of severe AS and guideline-defined AS-subtype classification: 1) normal ejection fraction (EF)/high-gradient; 2) low EF/high-gradient; 3) low EF/low-gradient; and 4) paradoxical low-flow/low-gradient AS. Samples from non-failing donor hearts served as control. We analyzed 25 individual left-ventricular biopsies by data-independent acquisition mass spectrometry (DIA-MS), and 26 biopsies by histomorphology and cardiomyocytes by STimulated Emission Depletion (STED) superresolution microscopy. Notably, DIA-MS reliably detected 2273 proteins throughout each individual left-ventricular biopsy, of which 160 proteins showed significant abundance changes between AS-subtype and non-failing samples including the cardiac ryanodine receptor (RyR2). Hierarchical clustering segregated unique proteotypes that identified three hemodynamic AS-subtypes. Additionally, distinct proteotypes were linked with AS-subtype specific differences in cardiomyocyte hypertrophy. Furthermore, superresolution microscopy of immunolabeled biopsy sections showed subcellular RyR2-cluster fragmentation and disruption of the functionally important association with transverse tubules, which occurred specifically in patients with systolic dysfunction and may hence contribute to depressed left-ventricular function in AS.

Development and Validation of a Predictive Model for Toxicity of Neoadjuvant Chemoradiotherapy in Rectal Cancer in the CAO/ARO/AIO-04 Phase III Trial.

Background: There is a lack of predictive models to identify patients at risk of high neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy (CRT)-related acute toxicity in rectal cancer. Patient and Methods: The CAO/ARO/AIO-04 trial was divided into a development (n = 831) and a validation (n = 405) cohort. Using a best subset selection approach, predictive models for grade 3−4 acute toxicity were calculated including clinicopathologic characteristics, pretreatment blood parameters, and baseline results of quality-of-life questionnaires and evaluated using the area under the ROC curve. The final model was internally and externally validated. Results: In the development cohort, 155 patients developed grade 3−4 toxicities due to CRT. In the final evaluation, 15 parameters were included in the logistic regression models using best-subset selection. BMI, gender, and emotional functioning remained significant for predicting toxicity, with a discrimination ability adjusted for overfitting of AUC 0.687. The odds of experiencing high-grade toxicity were 3.8 times higher in the intermediate and 6.4 times higher in the high-risk group (p < 0.001). Rates of toxicity (p = 0.001) and low treatment adherence (p = 0.007) remained significantly different in the validation cohort, whereas discrimination ability was not significantly worse (DeLong test 0.09). Conclusion: We developed and validated a predictive model for toxicity using gender, BMI, and emotional functioning. Such a model could help identify patients at risk for treatment-related high-grade toxicity to assist in treatment guidance and patient participation in shared decision making.

Effectiveness of a specialist palliative home care nurse-patient consultation followed by an interprofessional telephone case conference compared with usual care among patients with non-oncological palliative care needs: protocol for the multicentre KOPAL cluster-randomised controlled trial.

INTRODUCTION: Progressive chronic, non-malignant diseases (CNMD) like congestive heart failure (CHF), chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) and dementia are of growing relevance in primary care. Most of these patients suffer from severe symptoms, reduced quality of life and increased numbers of hospitalisations. Outpatient palliative care can help to reduce hospitalisation rate by up to 50%. Due to the complex medical conditions and prognostic uncertainty of the course of CNMD, early interprofessional care planning among general practitioners who provide general palliative care and specialist palliative home care (SPHC) teams seems mandatory. The KOPAL study (a concept for strenghtening interprofessional collaboration for patients with palliative care needs) will test the effectiveness of a SPHC nurse-patient consultation followed by an interprofessional telephone case conference. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: Multicentre two-arm cluster randomised controlled trial KOPAL with usual care as control arm. The study is located in Northern Germany and aims to recruit 616 patients in 56 GP practices (because of pandemic reasons reduced to 191 participants). Randomisation will take place on GP practice level immediately after inclusion (intervention group/control group). Allocation concealment is carried out on confirmation of participation. Patients diagnosed with CHF (New York Heart Association (NYHA) classification 3-4), COPD (Global Initiative for Chronic Obstructive Lung Disease (GOLD) stage classification 3-4, group D) or dementia GDS stage 4 or above). Primary outcome is a reduced hospital admission within 48 weeks after baseline, secondary outcomes include symptom burden, quality of life and health costs. The primary analysis will follow the intention-to-treat principle. Intervention will be evaluated after the observation period using qualitative methods. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: The responsible ethics committees of the cooperating centres approved the study. All steps of data collection, quality assurance and data analysis will continuously be monitored. The concept of KOPAL could serve as a blueprint for other regions and meet the challenges of geographical equity in end-of-life care. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: DRKS00017795; German Clinical Trials Register.

Immunotherapy for people with clinically isolated syndrome or relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis: treatment response by demographic, clinical, and biomarker subgroups (PROMISE)-a systematic review protocol.

BACKGROUND: Multiple sclerosis (MS) is an inflammatory and degenerative disease of the central nervous system with an increasing worldwide prevalence. Since 1993, more than 15 disease-modifying immunotherapies (DMTs) have been licenced and have shown moderate efficacy in clinical trials. Based on the heterogeneity of the disease and the partial effectiveness of therapies, a personalised medicine approach would be valuable taking individual prognosis and suitability of a chosen therapy into account to gain the best possible treatment effect. The primary objective of this review is to assess the differential treatment effects of all approved DMTs in subgroups of adults with clinically isolated syndrome or relapsing forms of MS. We will analyse possible treatment effect modifiers (TEM) defined by baseline demographic characteristics (gender, age), and diagnostic (i.e. MRI measures) and clinical (i.e. relapses, disability level) measures of MS disease activity. METHODS: We will include all published and accessible unpublished primary and secondary analyses of randomised controlled trials (RCTs) with a follow-up of at least 12 months investigating the efficacy of at least one approved DMT, with placebo or other approved DMTs as control intervention(s) in subgroups of trial participants. As the primary outcome, we will address disability as defined by the Expanded Disability Status Scale or multiple sclerosis functional composite scores followed by relapse frequency, quality of life measures, and side effects. MRI data will be analysed as secondary outcomes. MEDLINE, EMBASE, CINAHL, LILACS, CENTRAL and major trial registers will be searched for suitable studies. Titles and abstracts and full texts will be screened by two persons independently using Covidence. The risk of bias will be analysed based on the Cochrane "Risk of Bias 2" tool, and the certainty of evidence will be assessed using GRADE. Treatment effects will be reported as rate ratio or odds ratio. Primary analyses will follow the intention-to-treat principle. Meta-analyses will be carried out using random-effects models. DISCUSSION: Given that individual patient data from clinical studies are often not available, the review will allow to analyse the evidence on TEM in MS immunotherapy and thus support clinical decision making in individual cases. SYSTEMATIC REVIEW REGISTRATION: PROSPERO CRD42021279665 .

Reducing antibiotic use in uncomplicated urinary tract infections in adult women: a systematic review and individual participant data meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: Randomised controlled trials (RCTs) investigated analgesics, herbal formulations, delayed prescription of antibiotics, and placebo to prevent overprescription of antibiotics in women with uncomplicated urinary tract infections (uUTI). OBJECTIVES: To estimate the effect of these strategies and to identify symptoms, signs, or other factors that indicate a benefit from these strategies. DATA SOURCES: MEDLINE, EMBASE, Web of Science, LILACS, Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews and of Controlled Trials, and ClinicalTrials. STUDY ELIGIBILITY CRITERIA, PARTICIPANTS AND INTERVENTIONS: RCTs investigating any strategies to reduce antibiotics vs. immediate antibiotics in adult women with uUTI in primary care. METHODS: We extracted individual participant data (IPD) if available, otherwise aggregate data (AD). Bayesian random-effects meta-analysis of the AD was used for pairwise comparisons. Candidate moderators and prognostic indicators of treatment effects were investigated using generalised linear mixed models based on IPD. RESULTS: We analysed IPD of 3524 patients from eight RCTs and AD of 78 patients. Non-antibiotic strategies increased the rates of incomplete recovery (OR 3.0; 95% credible interval (CrI), 1.7-5.5; Bayesian p-value (pB) = 0.0017; τ = 0.6), subsequent antibiotic treatment (OR 3.5; 95% CrI, 2.1-5.8; pB = 0.0003) and pyelonephritis (OR 5.6; 95% CrI, 2.3-13.9; pB = 0.0003). Conversely, they decreased overall antibiotic use by 63%. Patients positive for urinary erythrocytes and urine culture were at increased risk for incomplete recovery (OR 4.7; 95% CrI, 2.1-10.8; pB = 0.0010), but no difference was apparent where both were negative (OR 0.8; 95% CrI, 0.3-2.0; pB = 0.667). In patients treated using non-antibiotic strategies, urinary erythrocytes and positive urine culture were independent prognostic indicators for subsequent antibiotic treatment and pyelonephritis. CONCLUSIONS: Compared to immediate antibiotics, non-antibiotic strategies reduce overall antibiotic use but result in poorer clinical outcomes. The presence of erythrocytes and tests to confirm bacteria in urine could be used to target antibiotic prescribing.

A straightforward meta-analysis approach for oncology phase I dose-finding studies.

Phase I early-phase clinical studies aim at investigating the safety and the underlying dose-toxicity relationship of a drug or combination. While little may still be known about the compound's properties, it is crucial to consider quantitative information available from any studies that may have been conducted previously on the same drug. A meta-analytic approach has the advantages of being able to properly account for between-study heterogeneity, and it may be readily extended to prediction or shrinkage applications. Here we propose a simple and robust two-stage approach for the estimation of maximum tolerated dose(s) utilizing penalized logistic regression and Bayesian random-effects meta-analysis methodology. Implementation is facilitated using standard R packages. The properties of the proposed methods are investigated in Monte Carlo simulations. The investigations are motivated and illustrated by two examples from oncology.

Health status improvement with ferric carboxymaltose in heart failure with reduced ejection fraction and iron deficiency.

AIM: Intravenous ferric carboxymaltose (FCM) has been shown to improve overall quality of life in iron-deficient heart failure with reduced ejection fraction (HFrEF) patients at a trial population level. This FAIR-HF and CONFIRM-HF pooled analysis explored the likelihood of individual improvement or deterioration in Kansas City Cardiomyopathy Questionnaire (KCCQ) domains with FCM versus placebo and evaluated the stability of this response over time. METHODS AND RESULTS: Changes versus baseline in KCCQ overall summary score (OSS), clinical summary score (CSS) and total symptom score (TSS) were assessed at weeks 12 and 24 in FCM and placebo groups. Mean between-group differences were estimated and individual responder analyses and analyses of response stability were performed. Overall, 760 (FCM, n = 454) patients were studied. At week 12, the mean improvement in KCCQ OSS was 10.6 points with FCM versus 4.8 points with placebo (least-square mean difference [95% confidence interval, CI] 4.36 [2.14; 6.59] points). A higher proportion of patients on FCM versus placebo experienced a KCCQ OSS improvement of ≥5 (58.3% vs. 43.5%; odds ratio [95% CI] 1.81 [1.30; 2.51]), ≥10 (42.4% vs. 29.3%; 1.73 [1.23; 2.43]) or ≥15 (32.1% vs. 22.6%; 1.46 [1.02; 2.11]) points. Differences were similar at week 24 and for CSS and TSS domains. Of FCM patients with a ≥5-, ≥10- or ≥15-point improvement in KCCQ OSS at week 12, >75% sustained this improvement at week 24. CONCLUSION: Treatment of iron-deficient HFrEF patients with intravenous FCM conveyed clinically relevant improvements in health status at an individual-patient level; benefits were sustained over time in most patients.