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INTRODUCTION: Accurate detection of cardiometabolic risk in early psychosis is crucial to reducing somatic morbidity and mortality in people with psychotic disorders. We conducted an external validation of the psychosis metabolic risk calculator (PsyMetRiC), a cardiometabolic risk prediction tool developed in the UK and tailored for young people with psychosis. We compared the predictive accuracy and clinical usefulness of PsyMetRiC and a general population-based risk prediction tool for type 2 diabetes, the Finnish Diabetes Risk Score (FINDRISC). METHODS: We included first-episode psychosis and ultra-high-risk for psychosis patients without metabolic syndrome aged 18-35 years from the Helsinki Early Psychosis and Turku Early Psychosis Study cohorts. We tested two versions of PsyMetRiC: the full model including age, sex, ethnicity, body-mass index, smoking status, prescription of metabolically-active antipsychotic medication, high-density lipoprotein, and triglyceride concentrations, and the partial-model excluding biochemical predictors, and the simplified FINDRISC including BMI, sex, systolic blood pressure, and fasting glucose. Discrimination, calibration, and decision curve analyses were used to assess the predictive performance and clinical usefulness of both PsyMetRiC and FINDRISC. We performed a site-specific re-calibration of PsyMetRiC (PsyMetRiC-Fi). RESULTS: The study sample consisted of 278 individuals (all White European ethnicity, 58.6% male, mean age 24.8 years, 37.8% smoking, mean BMI 23.5). Discrimination was marginally better in the PsyMetRiC full model (C = 0.72, 95% CI, 0.59-0.82) compared with partial model (C = 0.70, 95% CI 0.59-0.80) or FINDRISC (C = 0.63, 95% CI 0.54-0.71). Calibration plots displayed evidence of minor miscalibration for PsyMetRiC, which corrected following recalibration. Miscalibration was more pronounced for FINDRISC. Decision curve analysis showed that PsyMetRiC offers likely clinical usefulness in improving cardiometabolic risk management in early psychosis compared with giving everyone or no one an intervention. CONCLUSION: PsyMetRiC has utility in predicting cardiometabolic risk in Finnish patients with early psychosis. It has better discriminatory accuracy and offers more accurate risk prediction compared to other available strategies.
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BACKGROUND: Birth cohort studies have shown that adverse childhood experiences (ACEs) are associated with all-cause mortality. The effect of ACEs on premature mortality among working-age people is less clear and may differ between the genders. OBJECTIVE: In this prospective population study, we investigated the association of ACEs with all-cause mortality in a working-age population. PARTICIPANTS AND METHODS: In a representative Finnish population study, Health 2000, individuals aged 30 to 64 years were interviewed in 2000, and their deaths were registered until 2020. At baseline, the participants (n = 4981, 2624 females) completed a questionnaire that included 11 questions on ACEs and questions on tobacco smoking, alcohol abuse, self-reported health and sufficiency of income. All-cause mortality was analysed by Cox regression analysis. RESULTS: Of the ACEs, financial difficulties, parental unemployment and individual's own chronic illness were associated with mortality. High number (4+) of ACEs was significantly associated with all-cause mortality in females (HR 2.11, p < 0.001), not in males. Poor health behaviour, self-reported health and low income were the major predictors of mortality in both genders. When the effects of these factors were controlled, childhood family conflicts associated with mortality in both genders. CONCLUSIONS: Among working-age people, females seem to be sensitive to the effects of numerous adverse childhood experiences, exhibiting higher premature all-cause mortality. Of the individual ACEs, family conflicts may increase risk of premature mortality in both genders. The effect of ACEs on premature mortality may partly be mediated via poor adult health behaviour and low socioeconomic status. WHAT IS ALREADY KNOWN: In birth cohort studies, adverse childhood experiences (ACEs) have been associated with all-cause mortality. In working-age people, the association of ACEs with premature mortality is less clear and may differ between the genders. WHAT THIS STUDY ADDS: In working-age people, high number of ACEs associate with all-cause premature mortality in females, not in males. The effect of ACEs on premature mortality may partly be mediated via poor adult health behaviour, self-reported health and low socioeconomic status.