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OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study was to develop and validate a predictive nomogram model for long-term rebleeding events in patients with hemorrhagic moyamoya disease (HMMD). METHODS: In total, 554 patients with HMMD from the Fifth Medical Center of the Chinese PLA General Hospital (5-PLAGH cohort) were included and randomly divided into training (390 patients) and internal validation (164 patients) sets. An independent cohort from the First Medical Center and Eighth Medical Center of Chinese PLA General Hospital (the 1-PLAGH and 8-PLAGH cohort) was used for external validation (133 patients). Univariate Cox regression analysis and least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) regression algorithm were used to identify significant factors associated with rebleeding, which were used to develop a nomogram for predicting 5- and 10-year rebleeding. RESULTS: Intraventricular hemorrhage was the most common type of cerebral hemorrhage (39.0% of patients in the 5-PLAGH cohort and 42.9% of the 1-PLAGH and 8-PLAGH cohort). During the mean ± SD follow-up period of 10.4 ± 2.9 years, 91 (16.4%) patients had rebleeding events in the 5-PLAGH cohort. The rebleeding rates were 12.3% (68 patients) at 5 years and 14.8% (82 patients) at 10 years. Rebleeding events were observed in 72 patients (14.3%) in the encephaloduroarteriosynangiosis (EDAS) surgery group, whereas 19 patients (37.3%) experienced rebleeding events in the conservative treatment group. This difference was statistically significant (p < 0.001). We selected 4 predictors (age at onset, number of episodes of bleeding, posterior circulation involvement, and EDAS surgery) for nomogram development. The concordance index (C-index) values of the nomograms of the training cohort, internal validation cohort, and the external validation cohort were 0.767 (95% CI 0.704-0.830), 0.814 (95% CI 0.694-0.934), and 0.718 (95% CI 0.661-0.775), respectively. The nomogram at 5 years exhibited a sensitivity of 48.1% and specificity of 87.5%. The positive and negative predictive values were 38.2% and 91.3%, respectively. The nomogram at 10 years exhibited a sensitivity of 47.1% and specificity of 89.1%. The positive and negative predictive values were 48.5% and 88.5%, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: EDAS may prevent rebleeding events and improve long-term clinical outcomes in patients with HMMD. The nomogram accurately predicted rebleeding events and assisted clinicians in identifying high-risk patients and devising individual treatments. Simultaneously, comprehensive and ongoing monitoring should be implemented for specific patients with HMMD throughout their entire lifespan.
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OBJECTIVE: Diabetes is often linked to poorer outcomes in patients with moyamoya disease (MMD). However, experience has shown that certain individuals with diabetes have favorable outcomes after encephaloduroarteriosynangiosis (EDAS). The authors aimed to develop a nomogram to predict good neoangiogenesis in patients with MMD and type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) to aid neurosurgeons in the identification of suitable candidates for EDAS. METHODS: Adults with MMD and T2DM who underwent EDAS between June 2004 and December 2018 were included in the analysis. In total, 126 patients (213 hemispheres) with MMD and T2DM from the Fifth Medical Centre of the Chinese PLA General Hospital were included and randomly divided into training (152 hemispheres) and internal validation (61 hemispheres) cohorts at a ratio of 7:3. Univariate logistic and least absolute shrinkage and selection operator regression analyses were used to identify the significant factors associated with good neoangiogenesis, which were used to develop a nomogram. The discrimination, calibration, and clinical utility were assessed. RESULTS: A total of 213 hemispheres in 126 patients were reviewed, including 152 (71.36%) hemispheres with good postoperative collateral formation and 61 (28.64%) with poor postoperative collateral formation. The authors selected 4 predictors (FGD5 rs11128722, VEGFA rs9472135, Suzuki stage, and internal carotid artery [ICA] moyamoya vessels) for nomogram development. The C-indices of the nomogram in the training and internal validation cohorts were 0.873 and 0.841, respectively. The nomogram exhibited a sensitivity of 84.5% and specificity of 81.0%. The positive and negative predictive values were 92.1% and 66.7%, respectively. The calibration curves indicated high predictive accuracy, and receiver operating characteristic curve analysis showed the superiority of the nomogram. The decision-making analysis validated the fitness and clinical application value of this nomogram. Then a web-based calculator to facilitate clinical application was generated. CONCLUSIONS: The nomogram developed in this study accurately predicted neoangiogenesis in patients with MMD and T2DM after EDAS and may assist neurosurgeons in identifying suitable candidates for indirect revascularization surgery.
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Objective: This study aimed to explore the long-term outcome of unilateral moyamoya disease and predict the clinical and genetic factors associated with contralateral progression in unilateral moyamoya disease. Methods: We retrospectively recruited unilateral moyamoya disease patients with available genetic data who underwent encephaloduroarteriosynangiosis (EDAS) surgery at our institution from January 2009 to November 2017. Long-term follow-up data, including clinical outcomes, angiographic features, and genetic information, were analyzed. Results: A total of 83 unilateral moyamoya disease patients with available genetic data were enrolled in our study. The mean duration of clinical follow-up was 7.9 ± 2.0 years. Among all patients, 19 patients demonstrated contralateral progression to bilateral disease. Heterozygous Ring Finger Protein 213 p.R4810K mutations occurred significantly more frequently in unilateral moyamoya disease patients with contralateral progression. Furthermore, patients with contralateral progression typically demonstrated an earlier age of onset than those with non-progressing unilateral moyamoya disease. In the contralateral progression group, posterior circulation involvement was observed in 11 (11/19, 57.9%) patients compared to 12 (12/64, 18.8%) in the non-contralateral progression group (P = 0.001). The time to peak of cerebral perfusion and neurological status showed significant postoperative improvement. Conclusion: Long-term follow-up revealed that the EDAS procedure might provide benefits for unilateral moyamoya disease patients. Ring Finger Protein 213 p.R4810K mutations, younger age, and posterior circulation involvement might predict the contralateral progression of unilateral moyamoya disease.
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Background and objective: The natural course and risk factors of moyamoya disease (MMD) associated with unruptured intracranial aneurysms involving stenosed parental arteries are scarcely studied. This study aimed to elucidate the natural course of MMD and its associated risk factors in patients with MMD with unruptured aneurysms. Methods: Between September 2006 and October 2021, patients with MMD with intracranial aneurysms at our center were examined. The natural course, clinical features, radiological features, and follow-up outcomes after revascularization were analyzed. Results: This study included 42 patients with MMD with intracranial aneurysms (42 aneurysms). The age distribution of MMD cases ranged from 6 to 69 years, with four children (9.5%) and 38 adults (90.5%). A total of 17 male and 25 female subjects were included (male-to-female ratio: 1:1.47). The first symptom was cerebral ischemia in 28 cases, and cerebral hemorrhage occurred in 14 cases. There were 35 trunk aneurysms and seven peripheral aneurysms. There were 34 small aneurysms (<5 mm) and eight medium aneurysms (5-15 mm). During the average clinical follow-up period of 37.90 ± 32.53 months, there was no rupture or bleeding from aneurysms. Twenty-seven of these patients underwent a cerebral angiography review, in which it was found that one aneurysm had enlarged, 16 had remained unchanged, and 10 had shrunk or disappeared. A correlation exists between the reduction or disappearance of aneurysms and the progression of the Suzuki stages of MMD (P = 0.015). Nineteen patients underwent EDAS on the aneurysm side, and nine aneurysms disappeared, while eight patients did not undergo EDAS on the aneurysm side and one aneurysm disappeared. Conclusion: The risk of rupture and hemorrhage of unruptured intracranial aneurysms is low when the parent artery already has stenotic lesions, thus, direct intervention may not be necessary for such aneurysms. The progression of the Suzuki stage of moyamoya disease may play a role in the shrinkage or disappearance of the aneurysms, thereby decreasing the risk of rupture and hemorrhage. Encephaloduroarteriosynangiosis (EDAS) surgery may also help promote atrophy or even the disappearance of the aneurysm, thus reducing the risk of further rupture and bleeding.