Lipoprotein-Associated Phospholipase A2 and Incident Peripheral Arterial Disease in Older Adults: The Cardiovascular Health Study.

OBJECTIVE: Although prior studies report a relationship between elevated lipoprotein-associated phospholipase A2 (Lp-PLA2) and incident cardiovascular disease, the prospective association of Lp-PLA2 with incident peripheral arterial disease (PAD) has not been studied. We investigated the association between Lp-PLA2 mass and activity and the risk of developing clinical PAD and low ankle-brachial index (ABI). APPROACH AND RESULTS: Among Cardiovascular Health Study participants, a population-based cohort of 5888 adults aged ≥65 years enrolled in 1989 to 1990, Lp-PLA2 mass and activity were measured in 4537 individuals without baseline PAD. Clinical PAD, defined as leg artery revascularization or diagnosed claudication, was ascertained through 2011. Incident low ABI, defined as ABI <0.9 and decline of ≥0.15, was assessed among 3537 individuals who had an ABI >0.9 at baseline and a second ABI measurement 3 or 6 years later. Analyses were adjusted for demographics, cholesterol, smoking, comorbidities, and C-reactive protein. Each standard deviation increment in Lp-PLA2 mass (117 ng/mL) was associated with a higher risk of developing clinical PAD (hazard ratio 1.28; 95% confidence interval 1.13, 1.45) and incident low ABI (odds ratio 1.16; 95% confidence interval 1.00, 1.33). Results per standard deviation increment in Lp-PLA2 activity (13 nmol/min per mL) were similar for clinical PAD (hazard ratio 1.24; 95% confidence interval 1.07, 1.44) and low ABI (odds ratio 1.28; 95% confidence interval 1.09, 1.50). CONCLUSIONS: Higher Lp-PLA2 mass and activity were associated with development of both incident clinical PAD and low ABI. Future studies are needed to determine whether pharmacological inhibition of Lp-PLA2 reduces the incidence of PAD.

Development times, clinical testing, postmarket follow-up, and safety risks for the new drugs approved by the US food and drug administration: the class of 2008.

IMPORTANCE: The US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) has advanced multiple proposals to promote biomedical innovation by making new drugs available more quickly but with shorter, smaller, and more selective clinical trials and less rigorous end points. OBJECTIVE: To inform the debate about appropriate standards, we studied the development times, clinical testing, postmarket follow-up, and safety risks for the new drugs approved by the FDA in 2008, when most provisions of current law, regulation, and policies were in effect. DESIGN: Descriptive study of the drugs classified as new molecular entities using preapproval FDA evaluation documents, agency drug information databases, prescribing information, and other primary data sources. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: Comparison of drugs that received standard review and those deemed sufficiently innovative to receive expedited review with regard to clinical development and FDA review time, the size and duration of efficacy trials, safety issues, and postmarket follow-up. RESULTS: In 2008, the FDA approved 20 therapeutic drugs, 8 with expedited review and 12 with standard review. The expedited drugs took a median of 5.1 years (range, 1.6-10.6 years) of clinical development to obtain marketing approval compared with 7.5 years (range, 4.7-19.4 years) for the standard review drugs (P = .05). The expedited drugs were tested for efficacy in a median of 104 patients receiving the active drug (range, 23-599), compared with a median of 580 patients (range, 75-1207) for standard review drugs (P = .003). Nonclinical testing showed that 6 therapeutic drugs were animal carcinogens, 5 were in vitro mutagens, and 14 were animal teratogens. Other safety concerns resulted in 5 Boxed Warnings; 8 drugs required risk management plans. The FDA required 85 postmarket commitments. By 2013, 5 drugs acquired a new or expanded Boxed Warning; 26 of 85 (31%) of the postmarketing study commitments had been fulfilled, and 8 (9%) had been submitted for agency review. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: For new drugs approved by the FDA in 2008, those that received expedited review were approved more rapidly than those that received standard review. However, considerably fewer patients were studied prior to approval, and many safety questions remained unanswered. By 2013, many postmarketing studies had not been completed.

The causal exposure model of vascular disease.

Primary prevention of cardiovascular disease is governed at present by the risk factor model for cardiovascular events, a model which is widely accepted by physicians and professional associations, but which has important limitations: most critically, that effective treatment to reduce arterial damage is often delayed until the age at which cardiovascular events become common. This delay means that many of the early victims of vascular disease will not be identified in time. This delay also allows atherosclerosis to develop and progress unchecked within the arterial tree with the result that the absolute effectiveness of preventive therapy is limited by the time it is eventually initiated. The causal exposure model of vascular disease is an alternative to the risk factor model for cardiovascular events. Whereas the risk factor model aims to identify and treat those at markedly increased risk of vascular events within the next decade, the causal exposure model of vascular disease aims to prevent events by treating the causes of the disease when they are identified. In the risk factor model, age is an independent non-modifiable risk factor and the predictive power of age far outweighs that of the other risk factors. In the causal exposure model, age is the duration of time the arterial wall is exposed to the causes of atherosclerosis: apoB (apolipoprotein B) lipoproteins, hypertension, diabetes and smoking. Preventing the development of advanced atherosclerotic lesions by treating the causes of vascular disease is the simplest, surest and most effective way to prevent clinical events.

Suicidal behavior and depression in smoking cessation treatments.

BACKGROUND: Two treatments for smoking cessation--varenicline and bupropion--carry Boxed Warnings from the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) about suicidal/self-injurious behavior and depression. However, some epidemiological studies report an increased risk in smoking or smoking cessation independent of treatment, and differences between drugs are unknown. METHODOLOGY: From the FDA's Adverse Event Reporting System (AERS) database from 1998 through September 2010 we selected domestic, serious case reports for varenicline (n = 9,575), bupropion for smoking cessation (n = 1,751), and nicotine replacement products (n = 1,917). A composite endpoint of suicidal/self-injurious behavior or depression was defined as a case with one or more Preferred Terms in Standardized MedDRA Query (SMQ) for those adverse effects. The main outcome measure was the ratio of reported suicide/self-injury or depression cases for each drug compared to all other serious events for that drug. RESULTS: Overall we identified 3,249 reported cases of suicidal/self-injurious behavior or depression, 2,925 (90%) for varenicline, 229 (7%) for bupropion, and 95 (3%) for nicotine replacement. Compared to nicotine replacement, the disproportionality results (OR (95% CI)) were varenicline 8.4 (6.8-10.4), and bupropion 2.9 (2.3-3.7). The disproportionality persisted after excluding reports indicating concomitant therapy with any of 58 drugs with suicidal behavior warnings or precautions in the prescribing information. An additional antibiotic comparison group showed that adverse event reports of suicidal/self-injurious behavior or depression were otherwise rare in a healthy population receiving short-term drug treatment. CONCLUSIONS: Varenicline shows a substantial, statistically significant increased risk of reported depression and suicidal/self-injurious behavior. Bupropion for smoking cessation had smaller increased risks. The findings for varenicline, combined with other problems with its safety profile, render it unsuitable for first-line use in smoking cessation.

Risk of serious adverse cardiovascular events associated with varenicline: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: There have been postmarketing reports of adverse cardiovascular events associated with the use of varenicline, a widely used smoking cessation drug. We conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis of randomized controlled trials to ascertain the serious adverse cardiovascular effects of varenicline compared with placebo among tobacco users. METHODS: We searched MEDLINE, EMBASE, the Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews, websites of regulatory authorities and registries of clinical trials, with no date or language restrictions, through September 2010 (updated March 2011) for published and unpublished studies. We selected double-blind randomized controlled trials of at least one week's duration involving smokers or people who used smokeless tobacco that reported on cardiovascular events (ischemia, arrhythmia, congestive heart failure, sudden death or cardiovascular-related death) as serious adverse events asociated with the use of varenicline. RESULTS: We analyzed data from 14 double-blind randomized controlled trials involving 8216 participants. The trials ranged in duration from 7 to 52 weeks. Varenicline was associated with a significantly increased risk of serious adverse cardiovascular events compared with placebo (1.06% [52/4908] in varenicline group v. 0.82% [27/3308] in placebo group; Peto odds ratio [OR] 1.72, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.09-2.71; I(2) = 0%). The results of various sensitivity analyses were consistent with those of the main analysis, and a funnel plot showed no publication bias. There were too few deaths to allow meaningful comparisons of mortality. INTERPRETATION: Our meta-analysis raises safety concerns about the potential for an increased risk of serious adverse cardiovascular events associated with the use of varenicline among tobacco users.

A Polypill for primary prevention of cardiovascular disease: a feasibility study of the World Health Organization.

BACKGROUND: The feasibility of conducting a large-scale Polypill clinical trial in developing countries remains unclear. More information is needed regarding the efficacy in reducing the risk factors of cardiovascular disease (CVD), side effects, improvement in adherence and physician/patient "acceptability" of the Polypill. METHODS: We conducted an open-label, parallel-group, randomized clinical trial involving three sites in Sri Lanka that enrolled a total of 216 patients without established CVD. The trial compared a Polypill (75 mg aspirin, 20 mg simvastatin, 10 mg lisinopril and 12.5 mg hydrochlorothiazide) to Standard Practice. After randomization, patients were followed monthly for three months. Pre-specified primary outcomes included reduction in systolic blood pressure, total cholesterol and estimated 10-year CVD risk. We also evaluated the recruitment process and acceptability of the Polypill by both physicians and patients. RESULTS: Patients were recruited in a six-month period as planned. Two hundred three patients (94.0%) completed the treatment program and returned for their three-month follow-up visits. No safety concerns were reported. These findings suggest a high rate of patient acceptability, a finding that is bolstered by the majority of patients completing the trial (90%) indicating that they would take the Polypill "for life" if proven to be effective in reducing CVD risk. Approximately 86% of the physicians surveyed agreed with and supported use of the Polypill for primary prevention and 93% for secondary prevention of CVD. Both the Polypill and Standard Practice resulted in marked reductions in systolic blood pressure, total cholesterol and 10-year risk of CVD. However, the differences between the treatment groups were not statistically significant. CONCLUSIONS: We successfully completed a Polypill feasibility trial in Sri Lanka. We were able to document high acceptability of the Polypill to patients and physicians. We were unable to estimate the risk factor reductions on the Polypill because the control group received similar treatment with individual drugs. The Polypill was however simpler and achieved comparable risk factor reductions, highlighting its potential usefulness in the prevention of CVD. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: NCT00567307.

Acceptance of a Polypill approach to prevent cardiovascular disease among a sample of U.S. physicians.

OBJECTIVE: To examine US physicians' self-reported knowledge about the Polypill, factors considered in deciding whether to prescribe it, and acceptance of prescribing it for cardiovascular disease (CVD) prevention. METHODS: Numerical scales of 0 (lowest) to 5 (highest) were used to assess self-reported knowledge and importance of factors relevant to making a decision to prescribe a Polypill. Characteristics of physicians indicating they would prescribe a Polypill were compared. RESULTS: Among 952 physicians surveyed February through March 2010, mean self-rated knowledge about the Polypill was 2.0±1.5. Importance of degree of CVD event reduction, cost, and side effects were rated with means of 4.4, 4.3, and 4.3, respectively. 83% of respondents indicated they would "definitely" or "probably" prescribe it for high-risk patients; 62% would do so for moderate risk patients. Physicians with self-rated knowledge at ≥75th percentile were more likely to indicate they would prescribe a Polypill for moderate risk (adjusted OR 2.16; 95% CI 1.60-2.93) and high-risk (adjusted OR 1.57; 95% CI 1.07-2.32) patients. CONCLUSION: Among this sample of physicians, there is relatively high acceptance of prescribing a Polypill for CVD prevention despite relatively modest knowledge about it.

Prescription drugs associated with reports of violence towards others.

CONTEXT: Violence towards others is a seldom-studied adverse drug event and an atypical one because the risk of injury extends to others. OBJECTIVE: To identify the primary suspects in adverse drug event reports describing thoughts or acts of violence towards others, and assess the strength of the association. METHODOLOGY: From the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) Adverse Event Reporting System (AERS) data, we extracted all serious adverse event reports for drugs with 200 or more cases received from 2004 through September 2009. We identified any case report indicating homicide, homicidal ideation, physical assault, physical abuse or violence related symptoms. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Disproportionality in reporting was defined as a) 5 or more violence case reports, b) at least twice the number of reports expected given the volume of overall reports for that drug, c) a χ2 statistic indicating the violence cases were unlikely to have occurred by chance (p<0.01). RESULTS: We identified 1527 cases of violence disproportionally reported for 31 drugs. Primary suspect drugs included varenicline (an aid to smoking cessation), 11 antidepressants, 6 sedative/hypnotics and 3 drugs for attention deficit hyperactivity disorder. The evidence of an association was weaker and mixed for antipsychotic drugs and absent for all but 1 anticonvulsant/mood stabilizer. Two or fewer violence cases were reported for 435/484 (84.7%) of all evaluable drugs suggesting that an association with this adverse event is unlikely for these drugs. CONCLUSIONS: Acts of violence towards others are a genuine and serious adverse drug event associated with a relatively small group of drugs. Varenicline, which increases the availability of dopamine, and antidepressants with serotonergic effects were the most strongly and consistently implicated drugs. Prospective studies to evaluate systematically this side effect are needed to establish the incidence, confirm differences among drugs and identify additional common features.

Thoughts and acts of aggression/violence toward others reported in association with varenicline.

BACKGROUND: Thoughts and acts of aggression/violence toward others have been reported in postmarketing surveillance of varenicline, an aid to smoking cessation. OBJECTIVE: To identify the common characteristics of these thoughts and acts of aggression/violence toward others and assess the likely relationship to varenicline treatment. METHODS: We obtained 78 adverse event reports from the Food and Drug Administration MedWatch database containing medical terms describing possible acts or thoughts of aggression/violence; 4 additional cases were reported in clinical trials, and 3 others came from the published literature. We used psychiatric diagnostic criteria and an adverse event causality assessment tool to identify 26 case reports for study. RESULTS: The selected cases described 10 events with assault, 9 cases of homicidal ideation, and 7 cases of other thoughts or acts of aggression/violence. The most frequent common characteristics were (1) inexplicable and unprovoked event, (2) the victim was anyone nearby, (3) no indication of a prior history of similar behavior in the patient, and (4) early onset of psychiatric adverse effects, often before stopping smoking. Where dechallenge/rechallenge information was available, psychiatric adverse effects resolved in 13/14 (93%) cases after discontinuation. CONCLUSIONS: The clear temporal relationship, lack of prior history of this behavior, and unusual nature of these events strengthens the accumulating scientific evidence that varenicline is associated with thoughts and acts of aggression/violence. We recommend that physicians and pharmacists ensure that all patients are informed of possible psychiatric symptoms of varenicline, including violent and aggressive thoughts. All patients should be advised to contact a health-care provider immediately if these symptoms occur and varenicline should be discontinued without delay.

Does Ginkgo biloba reduce the risk of cardiovascular events?

BACKGROUND: Cardiovascular disease (CVD) was a preplanned secondary outcome of the Ginkgo Evaluation of Memory Study. The trial previously reported that Ginkgo biloba had no effect on the primary outcome, incident dementia. METHODS AND RESULTS: The double-blind trial randomly assigned 3069 participants over 75 years of age to 120 mg of G biloba EGb 761 twice daily or placebo. Mean follow-up was 6.1 years. The identification and classification of CVD was based on methods used in the Cardiovascular Health Study. Differences in time to event between G biloba and placebo were evaluated using Cox proportional hazards regression adjusted for age and sex. There were 355 deaths in the study, 87 due to coronary heart disease with no differences between G biloba and placebo. There were no differences in incident myocardial infarction (n=164), angina pectoris (n=207), or stroke (151) between G biloba and placebo. There were 24 hemorrhagic strokes, 16 on G biloba and 8 on placebo (not significant). There were only 35 peripheral vascular disease events, 12 (0.8%) on G biloba and 23 (1.5%) on placebo (P=0.04, exact test). Most of the peripheral vascular disease cases had either vascular surgery or amputation. CONCLUSIONS: There was no evidence that G biloba reduced total or CVD mortality or CVD events. There were more peripheral vascular disease events in the placebo arm. G biloba cannot be recommended for preventing CVD. Further clinical trials of peripheral vascular disease outcomes might be indicated. CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION: clinicaltrials.gov Identifier: NCT00010803.

Lipoprotein-associated phospholipase A(2) and risk of congestive heart failure in older adults: the Cardiovascular Health Study.

BACKGROUND: Inflammation may be a causative factor in congestive heart failure (CHF). Lipoprotein-associated phospholipase A(2) (Lp-PLA(2)) is an inflammation marker associated with vascular risk. One previous study showed an association of Lp-PLA(2) activity with CHF risk, but there were only 94 CHF cases and Lp-PLA(2) antigen, which is available clinically in the United States, was not measured. METHODS AND RESULTS: We measured baseline Lp-PLA(2) antigen and activity in 3991 men and women without baseline CHF or cardiovascular disease who were participating in the Cardiovascular Health Study, a prospective observational study of adults 65 years or older. Cox proportional hazards models adjusted for age, sex, clinic site, race, low-density and high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, body mass index, systolic and diastolic blood pressure, hypertension, smoking status, pack-years, and diabetes were used to calculate hazard ratios and 95% CIs for incident CHF. Further models adjusted for coronary disease events during follow-up and C-reactive protein. Eight hundred twenty-nine participants developed CHF during 12.1 years. Adjusted hazard ratios for CHF with Lp-PLA(2) in the fourth compared with the first quartile were 1.44 (95% CI, 1.16 to 1.79) for Lp-PLA(2) antigen and 1.06 (95% CI, 0.84 to 1.32) for activity. Adjustment for incident coronary disease attenuated the hazard ratio for Lp-PLA(2) antigen to 1.26 (95% CI, 1.02 to 1.57), adjustment for C-reactive protein had minimal impact. CONCLUSIONS: Lp-PLA(2) antigen was associated with risk of future CHF in older people, independent of CHF and coronary risk factors, and partly mediated by coronary disease events. Further clinical and basic research is needed to better understand the role of Lp-PLA(2) in CHF.

Lipoprotein-associated phospholipase A2 and risk of venous thrombosis in older adults.

Lipoprotein-associated phospholipase A2 (Lp-PLA2) is an enzyme involved in inflammation and platelet function. Inherited deficiency and elevated levels are associated with atherosclerosis. Given potential common etiologies of atherosclerosis and venous thrombosis (VT), we hypothesized that low and high Lp-PLA2 would be associated with VT risk. Lp-PLA(2) mass and activity were measured in baseline samples of Cardiovascular Health Study participants (5,888 men and women age > or =65), excluding 354 reporting pre-baseline VT. The study endpoint was VT unrelated to cancer after 11.6 years follow-up. Hazard ratios were estimated using Cox proportional hazard models, adjusting for age, race, sex, and body-mass index. With 129 cases of VT, there was no association of Lp-PLA2 activity with risk. Adjusted hazard ratios were 1.19 (CI 0.62, 2.29) and 0.87 (CI 0.43, 1.76) for the lowest and highest decile, respectively, compared to the 10-25th percentile. Corresponding hazard ratios for Lp-PLA2 mass were 1.63 (CI 0.79, 3.34) and 1.33 (CI 0.61, 2.87). Results were robust to several definitions of low or high Lp-PLA2. While the association of Lp-PLA(2) levels with arterial disease events implies a role for this enzyme in atherogenesis, our findings suggest that it is not prothrombotic.

Statin use and breast cancer: prospective results from the Women's Health Initiative.

BACKGROUND: Despite experimental observations suggesting that 3-hydroxy-3-methylglutaryl coenzyme A inhibitors (statins) have antitumor activity, clinical studies have reached mixed conclusions about the relationship between statin use and breast cancer risk. METHODS: To investigate associations between potency, duration of use, and type of statin used and risk of invasive breast cancer, we examined data for 156,351 postmenopausal women who were enrolled in the Women's Health Initiative. Information was collected on breast cancer risk factors and on the use of statins and other lipid-lowering drugs. Cox proportional hazards regression was used to calculate hazard ratios (HRs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs). Statistical tests were two-sided. RESULTS: Over an average follow-up of 6.7 years, 4383 invasive breast cancers were confirmed by medical record and pathology report review. Statins were used by 11,710 (7.5%) of the cohort. Breast cancer incidence was 4.09 per 1000 person-years (PY) among statin users and 4.28 per 1000 PY among nonusers. In multivariable models, the hazard ratio of breast cancer among users of any statin, compared with nonusers, was 0.91 (95% CI = 0.80 to 1.05, P = .20). There was no trend in risk by duration of statin use, with HR = 0.80 (95% CI = 0.63 to 1.03) for < 1 year of use, HR = 0.99 (95% CI = 0.80 to 1.23) for 1- < 3 years of use, and HR = 0.94 (95% CI = 0.75 to 1.18) for > or = 3 years of use. Hydrophobic statins (i.e., simvastatin, lovastatin, and fluvastatin) were used by 8106 women, and their use was associated with an 18% lower breast cancer incidence (HR = 0.82, 95% CI = 0.70 to 0.97, P = .02). Use of other statins (i.e., pravastatin and atorvastatin) or nonstatin lipid-lowering agents was not associated with breast cancer incidence. CONCLUSIONS: Overall statin use was not associated with invasive breast cancer incidence. Our finding that use of hydrophobic statins may be associated with lower breast cancer incidence suggests possible within-class differences that warrant further evaluation.

Attempted control of hyperglycemia during cardiopulmonary bypass fails to improve neurologic or neurobehavioral outcomes in patients without diabetes mellitus undergoing coronary artery bypass grafting.

OBJECTIVE: Hyperglycemia worsens outcomes in critical illness. This randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled clinical trial tested whether insulin treatment of hyperglycemia during cardiopulmonary bypass would reduce neurologic, neuro-ophthalmologic, and neurobehavioral outcomes after coronary artery bypass grafting. METHODS: Three hundred eighty-one nondiabetic patients undergoing isolated coronary artery bypass grafting were given infusions of insulin or placebo when their blood glucose concentration exceeded 100 mg/dL during cardiopulmonary bypass. The primary outcome measure was the combined incidence of new neurologic, neuro-ophthalmologic, or neurobehavioral deficits or neurologic death observed at 4 to 8 days postoperatively. This same measure was assessed secondarily at 6 weeks and 6 months. Length of hospital stay was also compared as a secondary assessment. RESULTS: The 2 groups were well matched at baseline. The insulin-treated group had significantly lower blood glucose concentrations during bypass. Sixty-six percent of subjects in the insulin-treated group and 67% of subjects in the control group demonstrated a new or worsening neurologic, neuro-ophthalmologic, or neurobehavioral deficit or neurologic death at the 4- to 8-day assessment. Outcomes were also similar in the 2 groups at 6 weeks (37% and 39% incidence, respectively) and 6 months (30% and 25%, respectively). Median lengths of stay were 7 and 6 days, respectively, in the treatment and control groups. None of these outcome differences was statistically significant. CONCLUSION: Attempted control of hyperglycemia during cardiopulmonary bypass had no significant effect on the combined incidence of neurologic, neuro-ophthalmologic, or neurobehavioral deficits or neurologic death and failed to shorten the length of hospital stay. These results do not contradict those of other studies showing that aggressive control of hyperglycemia in the postoperative period will improve outcome.

Incidence, manifestations, and predictors of worsening white matter on serial cranial magnetic resonance imaging in the elderly: the Cardiovascular Health Study.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: Magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) scans in the elderly commonly show white matter findings that may raise concerns. We sought to document incidence, manifestations, and predictors of worsening white matter grade on serial imaging. METHODS: The Cardiovascular Health Study is a population-based, longitudinal study of 5888 people aged 65 years and older, of whom 1919 have had extensive initial and follow-up evaluations, including 2 MRI scans separated by 5 years. Scans were read without clinical information in standard side-by-side fashion to determine worsening white matter grade. RESULTS: Worsening was evident in 538 participants (28%), mostly (85%) by 1 grade. Although similar at initial scan, participants with worsening white matter grade, compared with those without, experienced greater decline on modified Mini-Mental State examination and Digit-Symbol Substitution test (both P< or =0.001) after controlling for potential confounding factors, including occurrence of transient ischemic attack or stroke between scans. Independent predictors of worsening white matter grade included cigarette smoking before initial scan and infarct on initial scan. Otherwise, predictors differed according to white matter grade on initial scan. For low initial grade, increased age, increased diastolic blood pressure, increased high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, and decreased low-density lipoprotein cholesterol were associated with increased risk of worsening. For high initial grade, any cardiovascular disease and low ankle-arm index were associated with decreased risk of worsening, whereas use of diuretics and statins were associated with increased risk. CONCLUSIONS: Worsening white matter grade on serial MRI scans in elderly is common, is associated with cognitive decline, and has complex relations with cardiovascular risk factors.