Lassa fever outcomes and prognostic factors in Nigeria (LASCOPE): a prospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Lassa fever is a viral haemorrhagic fever endemic in parts of west Africa. New treatments are needed to decrease mortality, but pretrial reference data on the disease characteristics are scarce. We aimed to document baseline characteristics and outcomes for patients hospitalised with Lassa fever in Nigeria. METHODS: We did a prospective cohort study (LASCOPE) at the Federal Medical Centre in Owo, Nigeria. All patients admitted with confirmed Lassa fever were invited to participate and asked to give informed consent. Patients of all ages, including newborn infants, were eligible for inclusion, as were pregnant women. All participants received standard supportive care and intravenous ribavirin according to Nigeria Centre for Disease Control guidelines and underwent systematic biological monitoring for 30 days. Patients' characteristics, care received, mortality, and associated factors were recorded using standard WHO forms. We used univariable and multivariable logistic regression models to investigate an association between baseline characteristics and mortality at day 30. FINDINGS: Between April 5, 2018, and March 15, 2020, 534 patients with confirmed Lassa fever were admitted to hospital, of whom 510 (96%) gave consent and were included in the analysis. The cohort included 258 (51%) male patients, 252 (49%) female patients, 426 (84%) adults, and 84 (16%) children (younger than 18 years). The median time between first symptoms and hospital admission was 8 days (IQR 7-13). At baseline, 176 (38%) of 466 patients had a Lassa fever RT-PCR cycle threshold (Ct) lower than 30. From admission to end of follow-up, 120 (25%) of 484 reached a National Early Warning Score (second version; NEWS2) of 7 or higher, 67 (14%) of 495 reached a Kidney Disease-Improving Global Outcome (KDIGO) stage of 2 or higher, and 41 (8%) of 510 underwent dialysis. All patients received ribavirin for a median of 10 days (IQR 9-13). 62 (12%) patients died (57 [13%] adults and five [6%] children). The median time to death was 3 days (1-6). The baseline factors independently associated with mortality were the following: age 45 years or older (adjusted odds ratio 16·30, 95% CI 5·31-50·30), NEWS2 of 7 or higher (4·79, 1·75-13·10), KDIGO grade 2 or higher (7·52, 2·66-21·20), plasma alanine aminotransferase 3 or more times the upper limit of normal (4·96, 1·69-14·60), and Lassa fever RT-PCR Ct value lower than 30 (4·65, 1·50-14·50). INTERPRETATION: Our findings comprehensively document clinical and biological characteristics of patients with Lassa fever and their relationship with mortality, providing prospective estimates that could be useful for designing future therapeutic trials. Such trials comparing new Lassa fever treatments to a standard of care should take no more than 15% as the reference mortality rate and consider adopting a combination of mortality and need for dialysis as the primary endpoint. FUNDING: Institut National de la Santé et de la Recherche Médicale, University of Oxford, EU, UK Department for International Development, Wellcome Trust, French Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Agence Nationale de Recherches sur le SIDA et les hépatites virales, French National Research Institute for Sustainable Development.

Systematic or Test-Guided Treatment for Tuberculosis in HIV-Infected Adults.

BACKGROUND: In regions with high burdens of tuberculosis and human immunodeficiency virus (HIV), many HIV-infected adults begin antiretroviral therapy (ART) when they are already severely immunocompromised. Mortality after ART initiation is high in these patients, and tuberculosis and invasive bacterial diseases are common causes of death. METHODS: We conducted a 48-week trial of empirical treatment for tuberculosis as compared with treatment guided by testing in HIV-infected adults who had not previously received ART and had CD4+ T-cell counts below 100 cells per cubic millimeter. Patients recruited in Ivory Coast, Uganda, Cambodia, and Vietnam were randomly assigned in a 1:1 ratio to undergo screening (Xpert MTB/RIF test, urinary lipoarabinomannan test, and chest radiography) to determine whether treatment for tuberculosis should be started or to receive systematic empirical treatment with rifampin, isoniazid, ethambutol, and pyrazinamide daily for 2 months, followed by rifampin and isoniazid daily for 4 months. The primary end point was a composite of death from any cause or invasive bacterial disease within 24 weeks (primary analysis) or within 48 weeks after randomization. RESULTS: A total of 522 patients in the systematic-treatment group and 525 in the guided-treatment group were included in the analyses. At week 24, the rate of death from any cause or invasive bacterial disease (calculated as the number of first events per 100 patient-years) was 19.4 with systematic treatment and 20.3 with guided treatment (adjusted hazard ratio, 0.95; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.63 to 1.44). At week 48, the corresponding rates were 12.8 and 13.3 (adjusted hazard ratio, 0.97 [95% CI, 0.67 to 1.40]). At week 24, the probability of tuberculosis was lower with systematic treatment than with guided treatment (3.0% vs. 17.9%; adjusted hazard ratio, 0.15; 95% CI, 0.09 to 0.26), but the probability of grade 3 or 4 drug-related adverse events was higher with systematic treatment (17.4% vs. 7.2%; adjusted hazard ratio 2.57; 95% CI, 1.75 to 3.78). Serious adverse events were more common with systematic treatment. CONCLUSIONS: Among severely immunosuppressed adults with HIV infection who had not previously received ART, systematic treatment for tuberculosis was not superior to test-guided treatment in reducing the rate of death or invasive bacterial disease over 24 or 48 weeks and was associated with more grade 3 or 4 adverse events. (Funded by the Agence Nationale de Recherches sur le Sida et les Hépatites Virales; STATIS ANRS 12290 ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT02057796.).

A Trial of Early Antiretrovirals and Isoniazid Preventive Therapy in Africa.

BACKGROUND: In sub-Saharan Africa, the burden of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-associated tuberculosis is high. We conducted a trial with a 2-by-2 factorial design to assess the benefits of early antiretroviral therapy (ART), 6-month isoniazid preventive therapy (IPT), or both among HIV-infected adults with high CD4+ cell counts in Ivory Coast. METHODS: We included participants who had HIV type 1 infection and a CD4+ count of less than 800 cells per cubic millimeter and who met no criteria for starting ART according to World Health Organization (WHO) guidelines. Participants were randomly assigned to one of four treatment groups: deferred ART (ART initiation according to WHO criteria), deferred ART plus IPT, early ART (immediate ART initiation), or early ART plus IPT. The primary end point was a composite of diseases included in the case definition of the acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS), non-AIDS-defining cancer, non-AIDS-defining invasive bacterial disease, or death from any cause at 30 months. We used Cox proportional models to compare outcomes between the deferred-ART and early-ART strategies and between the IPT and no-IPT strategies. RESULTS: A total of 2056 patients (41% with a baseline CD4+ count of ≥500 cells per cubic millimeter) were followed for 4757 patient-years. A total of 204 primary end-point events were observed (3.8 events per 100 person-years; 95% confidence interval [CI], 3.3 to 4.4), including 68 in patients with a baseline CD4+ count of at least 500 cells per cubic millimeter (3.2 events per 100 person-years; 95% CI, 2.4 to 4.0). Tuberculosis and invasive bacterial diseases accounted for 42% and 27% of primary end-point events, respectively. The risk of death or severe HIV-related illness was lower with early ART than with deferred ART (adjusted hazard ratio, 0.56; 95% CI, 0.41 to 0.76; adjusted hazard ratio among patients with a baseline CD4+ count of ≥500 cells per cubic millimeter, 0.56; 95% CI, 0.33 to 0.94) and lower with IPT than with no IPT (adjusted hazard ratio, 0.65; 95% CI, 0.48 to 0.88; adjusted hazard ratio among patients with a baseline CD4+ count of ≥500 cells per cubic millimeter, 0.61; 95% CI, 0.36 to 1.01). The 30-month probability of grade 3 or 4 adverse events did not differ significantly among the strategies. CONCLUSIONS: In this African country, immediate ART and 6 months of IPT independently led to lower rates of severe illness than did deferred ART and no IPT, both overall and among patients with CD4+ counts of at least 500 cells per cubic millimeter. (Funded by the French National Agency for Research on AIDS and Viral Hepatitis; TEMPRANO ANRS 12136 ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT00495651.).

Two-months-off, four-months-on antiretroviral regimen increases the risk of resistance, compared with continuous therapy: a randomized trial involving West African adults.

BACKGROUND: A randomized trial was launched in Côte d'Ivoire in 2002 to compare continuous antiretroviral treatment (hereafter, "C-ART") to an ART regimen of 2 months off and 4 months on therapy (hereafter, "2/4-ART"). We report the final analysis. METHODS: A total of 435 adults who were receiving successful ART ((median CD4 cell count prior to ART, 272 cells/mm(3); 88% were receiving a zidovudine-lamivudine-efavirenz regimen) were randomized to receive C-ART or 2/4-ART. The main primary end point was the percentage of patients with <350 CD4 cells/mm(3) at 24 months. The sample size ensured 80% power to demonstrate noninferiority (noninferiority bound, -15%), assuming that 30% of the patients in the C-ART arm would have <350 CD4 cells/mm(3). Other end points were mortality, morbidity, cost of care, genotypic resistance, adherence, and toxicity. RESULTS: The percentage of patients with <350 CD4 cells/mm(3) at 24 months was 5.6% (6 of 107) in the C-ART arm and 14.6% (46 of 315) in the 2/4-ART arm (lower bound of the 95% CI for the difference, -14%). Cost was 18% higher in the C-ART arm, and resistance to nonnucleoside reverse-transcriptase inhibitors (NNRTIs) was 20% higher in the 2/4-ART arm. Other end points were nonconclusive. CONCLUSIONS: Although 2/4-ART met the predetermined criteria for noninferiority, the percentage of patients with <350 CD4 cells/mm(3) in the C-ART arm was lower than anticipated, which makes the clinical significance of this noninferiority uncertain. In addition, 2/4-ART led to an unacceptable additional risk of selecting for drug-resistant virus. This new argument against episodic ART strategies is also a caveat against any unplanned ART interruptions in Africa, where most patients receive NNRTIs.