Excessive intraoperative blood loss independently predicts recurrence of hepatocellular carcinoma after liver transplantation.

BACKGROUND: Several studies have investigated the effect of intraoperative blood loss (IBL) on recurrence of tumors. However, the independent effect of IBL on oncological outcome after liver transplantation (LT) for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is unclear. METHODS: A total of 479 patients who underwent LT for HCC from January 2001 to December 2012 at our institution were enrolled in this retrospective study. Kaplan-Meier and Cox regression methods were used to assess the recurrence rate, as well as its risk factors. Stratified analysis was performed to further examine the effect of IBL on HCC recurrence according to different characteristics of tumors. We also investigated the independent risk factors for excessive IBL using logistic regression analysis. RESULTS: The median follow-up was 28 months (range, 1-131 months). Kaplan-Meier analysis with the log-rank test according to IBL at per liter intervals showed that IBL > 4 L was significantly associated with a higher recurrence rate (P < 0.001). Multivariate analysis identified that IBL > 4 L (P < 0.001; hazard ratio [HR] = 2.32, 95 % confidence interval [CI] = 1.60-3.36) was an independent risk factor for post-LT HCC recurrence, as well as age < 60 years, exceeding Milan criteria, α-fetoprotein levels > 400 ng/mL, and micro- and macrovascular invasion. IBL > 4 L (P < 0.001; HR = 2.45, 95 % CI = 1.64-3.66) was also independently associated with early (within 1 year) recurrence after LT. Furthermore, a significant correlation between IBL > 4 L and vascular invasion (P = 0.019) was found. IBL > 4 L was independently associated with HCC recurrence for patients with vascular invasion, but not for patients without vascular invasion. Finally, we found that the presence of ascites, model for end-stage liver disease score, and operation time were independent risk factors for IBL > 4 L. CONCLUSIONS: Excessive IBL is an independent predictor of HCC recurrence after LT, especially in patients with vascular invasion.

Validation of a criteria-specific long-term survival prediction model for hepatocellular carcinoma patients after liver transplantation.

The aim of this study was to validate a criteria-specific long-term survival prediction model (MHCAT) in a large cohort of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) patients after liver transplantation (LT) in China. Independent risk factors in MHCAT were retrospectively analysed for HCC patients recorded in the China Liver Transplant Registry. Survival predictions for each patient were calculated using MHCAT scores and the Metroticket formula separately, and the prediction efficacy of MHCAT and Metroticket was compared using the area under ROC curve (c-statistic). A total of 1371 LTs for HCC were analysed in the study, with a median follow-up of 22.2 months (IQR 6.1-72.4 months). The proportions meeting the Milan, UCSF, Fudan and Hangzhou criteria were 34.4%, 39.7%, 44.2% and 51.9%, respectively. The c-statistics for MHCAT predictions of 3- and 5-year survival rates of HCC recipients were 0.712-0.727 and 0.726-0.741, respectively. Among these patients, 1298 LTs for HCC were ultimately selected for the comparison analysis for prediction efficacy. The c-statistic of MHCAT for predictions of 3-year survival with reference to the Milan, UCSF and Fudan criteria was significantly increased compared with that for Metroticket (p < 0.05). In conclusion, MHCAT can effectively predict long-term survival for HCC recipients after LT.