A Risk Prediction Model for Mortality Among Smokers in the COPDGene® Study.

BACKGROUND: Risk factor identification is a proven strategy in advancing treatments and preventive therapy for many chronic conditions. Quantifying the impact of those risk factors on health outcomes can consolidate and focus efforts on individuals with specific high-risk profiles. Using multiple risk factors and longitudinal outcomes in 2 independent cohorts, we developed and validated a risk score model to predict mortality in current and former cigarette smokers. METHODS: We obtained extensive data on current and former smokers from the COPD Genetic Epidemiology (COPDGene®) study at enrollment. Based on physician input and model goodness-of-fit measures, a subset of variables was selected to fit final Weibull survival models separately for men and women. Coefficients and predictors were translated into a point system, allowing for easy computation of mortality risk scores and probabilities. We then used the SubPopulations and InteRmediate Outcome Measures In COPD Study (SPIROMICS) cohort for external validation of our model. RESULTS: Of 9867 COPDGene participants with standard baseline data, 17.6% died over 10 years of follow-up, and 9074 of these participants had the full set of baseline predictors (standard plus 6-minute walk distance and computed tomography variables) available for full model fits. The average age of participants in the cohort was 60 for both men and women, and the average predicted 10-year mortality risk was 18% for women and 25% for men. Model time-integrated area under the receiver operating characteristic curve statistics demonstrated good predictive model accuracy (0.797 average), validated in the external cohort (0.756 average). Risk of mortality was impacted most by 6-minute walk distance, forced expiratory volume in 1 second and age, for both men and women. CONCLUSIONS: Current and former smokers exhibited a wide range of mortality risk over a 10- year period. Our models can identify higher risk individuals who can be targeted for interventions to reduce risk of mortality, for participants with or without chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) using current Global initiative for obstructive Lung Disease (GOLD) criteria.

Transnational Mortality Comparisons Between Archipelago and Mainland Puerto Ricans.

Puerto Ricans in the US experience higher deaths from diabetes and other causes compared to non-Hispanic Whites and other Hispanic groups. We compared mortality in Puerto Rico to that of Puerto Ricans in the US as a first step to investigate if similar or worse mortality patterns originate from the sending country (Puerto Rico). Age-adjusted death rates were generated using national vital statistics databases in the US and territories for all-cause and the top ten causes of death among Hispanics in 2009. Mortality ratios in the archipelago of Puerto Rico (APR) were compared to mainland US Puerto Ricans (MPR). Rates for other ethnic/racial groups (Mexican Americans, Cubans, and non-Hispanic Whites, Blacks, American Indians, and Asians) were calculated to provide a context. APR had significantly higher all-cause mortality and death rates for diabetes, nephritis, pneumonia/influenza, and homicide/assault compared to MPR (APR/MPR ratio for all-cause: 1.08, diabetes: 2.04, nephritis: 1.84, pneumonia/influenza: 1.33, homicide/assault: 3.15). Death rates for diabetes and homicide/assault (particularly among men) were higher among APR compared to any other racial/ethnic groups in the US. In contrast, deaths from heart disease, cancer, and chronic liver disease were significantly lower for APR compared to MPR (MPR/APR ratio 0.72, 0.91, 0.41, respectively). Among APR women, death rates for these causes were also lower compared to any other group in the US. Substantial mortality variability exists between Puerto Ricans in Puerto Rico and those in the US, re-emphasizing the need to study of how socio-environmental determinants of health differ in sending and receiving countries. Explanations for disparate rates include access to and availability of healthcare and unique factors related to the migration experience of this group.

Factors affecting clinician educator encouragement of routine HIV testing among trainees.

BACKGROUND: Adoption of CDC recommendations for routine, voluntary HIV screening of all Americans age 13­64 years has been slow. One method to increase adherence to clinical practice guidelines is through medical school and residency training. OBJECTIVE: To explore the attitudes, barriers, and behaviors of clinician educators (CEs) regarding advocating routine HIV testing to their trainees. DESIGN/PARTICIPANTS: We analyzed CE responses to a 2009 survey of Society of General Internal Medicine members from community, VA, and university-affiliated clinics regarding HIV testing practices. MAIN MEASURES: Clinician educators were asked about their outpatient practices, knowledge and attitudes regarding the revised CDC recommendations and whether they encouraged trainees to perform routine HIV testing. Associations between HIV testing knowledge and attitudes and encouraging trainees to perform routine HIV testing were estimated using bivariate and multivariable logistic regression. RESULTS: Of 515 respondents, 367 (71.3%) indicated they supervised trainees in an outpatient general internal medicine clinic. These CEs demonstrated suboptimal knowledge of CDC guidelines and over a third reported continued risk-based testing. Among CEs, 196 (53.4%) reported that they encourage trainees to perform routine HIV testing. Higher knowledge scores (aOR 5.10 (2.16, 12.0)) and more positive attitudes toward testing (aOR 8.83 (4.21, 18.5)) were independently associated with encouraging trainees to screen for HIV. Reasons for not encouraging trainees to screen included perceived low local prevalence (37.2%), competing teaching priorities (34.6%), and a busy clinic environment (34.0%). CONCLUSIONS: Clinician educators have a special role in the dissemination of the CDC recommendations as they impact the knowledge and attitudes of newly practicing physicians. Despite awareness of CDC recommendations, many CEs do not recommend universal HIV testing to trainees. Interventions that improve faculty knowledge of HIV testing recommendations and address barriers in resident clinics may enhance adoption of routine HIV testing.