Risk of Postoperative Renal Failure in Radical Nephrectomy and Nephroureterectomy: A Validated Risk Prediction Model.

INTRODUCTION: The study aimed to construct and validate a risk prediction model for incidence of postoperative renal failure (PORF) following radical nephrectomy and nephroureterectomy. METHODS: The American College of Surgeons National Surgical Quality Improvement Program (ACS-NSQIP) database years 2005-2014 were used for the derivation cohort. A stepwise multivariate logistic regression analysis was conducted, and the final model was validated with an independent cohort from the ACS-NSQIP database years 2015-2017. RESULTS: In cohort of 14,519 patients, 296 (2.0%) developed PORF. The final 9-factor model included age, gender, diabetes, hypertension, BMI, preoperative creatinine, hematocrit, platelet count, and surgical approach. Model receiver-operator curve analysis provided a C-statistic of 0.79 (0.77, 0.82; p < 0.001), and overall calibration testing R2 was 0.99. Model performance in the validation cohort provided a C-statistic of 0.79 (0.76, 0.81; p < 0.001). CONCLUSION: PORF is a known risk factor for chronic kidney disease and cardiovascular morbidity, and is a common occurrence after unilateral kidney removal. The authors propose a robust and validated risk prediction model to aid in identification of high-risk patients and optimization of perioperative care.

Exercise-Induced Ventricular Ectopy and Cardiovascular Mortality in Asymptomatic Individuals.

BACKGROUND: The prognosis of exercise-induced premature ventricular contractions (PVCs) in asymptomatic individuals is unclear. OBJECTIVES: This study sought to investigate whether high-grade PVCs during stress testing predict mortality in asymptomatic individuals. METHODS: A cohort of 5,486 asymptomatic individuals who took part in the Lipid Research Clinics prospective cohort had baseline interview, physical examination, blood tests, and underwent Bruce protocol treadmill testing. Adjusted Cox survival models evaluated the association of exercise-induced high-grade PVCs (defined as either frequent (>10 per minute), multifocal, R-on-T type, or ≥2 PVCs in a row) with all-cause and cardiovascular mortality. RESULTS: Mean baseline age was 45.4 ± 10.8 years; 42% were women. During a mean follow-up of 20.2 ± 3.9 years, 840 deaths occurred, including 311 cardiovascular deaths. High-grade PVCs occurred during exercise in 1.8% of individuals, during recovery in 2.4%, and during both in 0.8%. After adjusting for age, sex, diabetes, hypertension, lipids, smoking, body mass index, and family history of premature coronary disease, high-grade PVCs during recovery were associated with cardiovascular mortality (hazard ratio [HR]: 1.82; 95% CI: 1.19-2.79; P = 0.006), which remained significant after further adjusting for exercise duration, heart rate recovery, achieving target heart rate, and ST-segment depression (HR: 1.68; 95% CI: 1.09-2.60; P = 0.020). Results were similar by clinical subgroups. High-grade PVCs occurring during the exercise phase were not associated with increased risk. Recovery PVCs did not improve 20-year cardiovascular mortality risk discrimination beyond clinical variables. CONCLUSIONS: High-grade PVCs occurring during recovery were associated with long-term risk of cardiovascular mortality in asymptomatic individuals, whereas PVCs occurring only during exercise were not associated with increased risk.

The association of cardiovascular mortality with a first-degree family member history of different cardiovascular diseases.

OBJECTIVE: To investigate which history of cardiovascular disease [coronary heart disease (CHD), stroke, or peripheral arterial disease] in a first-degree family member predicts cardiovascular mortality. METHODS: We studied a prospective cohort (the Lipid Research Clinics Prevalence Study) from ten primary care centers across North America. The primary outcome was cardiovascular mortality, assessed using Cox survival models. RESULTS: There were 8,646 participants (mean age: 47.4 ± 12.1 years, 46% women, 52% of participants with hyperlipidemia) who were followed up for a mean duration of 19.4 ± 4.9 years. There were 1,851 deaths (21%), including 852 cardiovascular deaths. A paternal, maternal or sibling history of premature CHD (before 60 years) was present in 26% of participants, of stroke in 27% of participants, and of peripheral arterial disease in 24% of participants. After adjusting for risk factors (age, sex, systolic blood pressure, diastolic blood pressure, body mass index, smoking, fasting glucose, low-density lipoprotein cholesterol and triglycerides), only a paternal history of premature or any CHD, a maternal history of diabetes mellitus or premature or any CHD, and a sibling history of premature CHD, hypertension, or hyperlipidemia were individually predictive of cardiovascular mortality. After adjusting for risk factors and the mentioned familial factors, only paternal and maternal histories of CHD, especially before 60 years, remained predictive of cardiovascular mortality, with a somewhat higher association for a maternal history [adjusted hazard ratio (aHR) = 1.99, 95% CI: 1.36-2.92,P < 0.001 for maternal history of premature CHD; aHR = 1.52, 95% CI: 1.10-2.10, P = 0.011 for paternal history of premature CHD]. Family history of stroke or peripheral arterial disease did not predict cardiovascular mortality. Parental history of premature CHD predicted cardiovascular mortality independently of baseline age (< 60 years and ≥ 60 years), hypertension, or hyperlipidemia and carried more important prognostic value in men rather than women. CONCLUSIONS: In this study, a parental history of CHD, especially before 60 years, best predicted cardiovascular mortality. This finding could help more accurately identify high-risk patients who would benefit from preventive strategies.