Multidisciplinary treatment of hepatocellular carcinoma in 2023: Italian practice Treatment Guidelines of the Italian Association for the Study of the Liver (AISF), Italian Association of Medical Oncology (AIOM), Italian Association of Hepato-Bilio-Pancreatic Surgery (AICEP), Italian Association of Hospital Gastroenterologists (AIGO), Italian Association of Radiology and Clinical Oncology (AIRO), Italian Society of Pathological Anatomy and Diagnostic Cytology (SIAPeC-IAP), Italian Society of Surgery (SIC), Italian Society of Gastroenterology (SIGE), Italian Society of Medical and Interventional Radiology (SIRM), Italian Organ Transplant Society (SITO), and Association of Patients with Hepatitis and Liver Disease (EpaC) - Part II - Non-surgical treatments.

Worldwide, hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is the third most common cause of cancer-related death. The remarkable improvements in treating HCC achieved in the last years have increased the complexity of its management. Following the need to have updated guidelines on the multidisciplinary treatment management of HCC, the Italian Scientific Societies involved in the management of this cancer have promoted the drafting of a new dedicated document. This document was drawn up according to the GRADE methodology needed to produce guidelines based on evidence. Here is presented the second part of guidelines, focused on the multidisciplinary tumor board of experts and non-surgical treatments of HCC.

Multidisciplinary Treatment of Hepatocellular Carcinoma in 2023: Italian practice Treatment Guidelines of the Italian Association for the Study of the Liver (AISF), Italian Association of Medical Oncology (AIOM), Italian Association of Hepato-Bilio-Pancreatic Surgery (AICEP), Italian Association of Hospital Gastroenterologists (AIGO), Italian Association of Radiology and Clinical Oncology (AIRO), Italian Society of Pathological Anatomy and Diagnostic Cytology (SIAPeC-IAP), Italian Society of Surgery (SIC), Italian Society of Gastroenterology (SIGE), Italian Society of Medical and Interventional Radiology (SIRM), Italian Organ Transplant Society (SITO), and Association of Patients with Hepatitis and Liver Disease (EpaC) - Part I - Surgical treatments.

Worldwide, hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is the third most common cause of cancer-related death. The remarkable improvements in treating HCC achieved in the last years have increased the complexity of HCC management. Following the need to have updated guidelines on the multidisciplinary treatment management of HCC, the Italian Scientific Societies involved in the management of this cancer have promoted the drafting of a new dedicated document. This document was drawn up according to the GRADE methodology needed to produce guidelines based on evidence. Here is presented the first part of guidelines, focused on the multidisciplinary tumor board of experts and surgical treatments of HCC.

Reduction of Fecal Calprotectin Levels Induced by a Short Course of Escherichia Coli Nissle is Associated with a Lower Likelihood of Disease Flares in Patients with Ulcerative Colitis in Clinical Remission.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Fecal calprotectin (FC) is a biomarker of gut inflammation, and Escherichia coli Nissle 1917 (EcN) is a probiotic strain able to reduce gut inflammation and maintain disease remission in patients with inflammatory bowel disease (IBD). The aim is to assess the effects of EcN administration in patients with IBD in clinical remission and altered FC values. METHODS: We prospectively included 82 patients with ulcerative colitis (UC) (n=49) and Crohn's disease (CD) (n=33) in clinical remission and with FC values above 250 mcg/g (T0) who were treated with EcN alone for 2 months. FC values were assessed at the end of EcN treatment (T1) and clinical disease activity at 3 months (T2). RESULTS: At T1 median FC values were significantly lower compared to T0 both in patients with CD (312 mcg/g vs 626 mcg/g, p<0.0001) and UC (100 mcg/g vs 584 mcg/g; p<0.0001). Patients with UC who experienced disease relapse at T2 had lesser reduction in median FC values at T1 (-229 mcg/g, vs -397 mcg/g, p=0.049), while in patients with CD we observed no statistically significant difference (-358 mcg/g, vs -427; p=0.568). In patients with UC, a reduction of at least 532 mcg/g in FC had an accuracy of 69.7% and a positive predictive value of 65.7% in predicting maintenance of remission. CONCLUSIONS: A short course of EcN was associated with a reduction of FC values in patients with IBD in clinical remission and baseline altered FC values, and in patients with UC this decrease was associated with maintenance of clinical remission.

Albumin-bilirubin score in non-malignant liver diseases should be properly validated.

The albumin-bilirubin (ALBI) score to assess the risk of decompensation in patients with initially compensated cirrhosis may improve their prognostic evaluation. This letter critically evaluates the research, which utilizes the ALBI score to forecast decompensation in cirrhosis patients over a three-year period. This score was initially developed to assess liver function in hepatocellular carcinoma, its prognostic utility for non-malignant liver diseases has now been explored, recognizing decompensation as a pivotal event that significantly affects patient's survival. Some concerns regarding the methodology of this research may be raised, particularly the exclusive use of radiological diagnosis, potentially including patients without definite cirrhosis and thus skewing the decompensation risk assessment. The reported predominance of variceal bleeding as a decompensating event conflicts with established literature, that often reports ascites as the initial decompensation manifestation. The letter highlights the absence of details on esophageal varices and their management, which could introduce bias in evaluating the ALBI score's predictive power. Furthermore, the letter points out the small sample size of patients with high-risk ALBI grades, potentially compromising the score's validity in this context. We suggest prospective future research to investigate the dynamic changes in the ALBI score over time to reinforce the validity of the ALBI score as a predictor of decompensation in non-malignant liver disease.

Therapeutic drug monitoring in Crohn's disease patients treated with anti-TNF: a comparison of two techniques.

BACKGROUND: Therapeutic drug monitoring is a useful clinical decision aid in managing patients with inflammatory bowel disease treated with anti-tumor necrosis factor (anti-TNF). Various techniques are available to evaluate drug trough levels, and among these a point-of-care (POC) method has been proposed to overcome the limitations inherent to other methodologies. In this study we aimed to evaluate the capability of POC to discriminate between relapse and remission disease phases, and to assess the concordance of the POC and homogeneous mobility shift assay (HMSA) results. METHODS: Drug trough level of 46 Crohn's disease patients treated with either adalimumab or infliximab were evaluated with both a POC technique and an HMSA at various time points (week-16 and -48) during anti-TNF treatment. RESULTS: Median adalimumab trough level of patients in remission were significantly higher as compared to relapsing patients using both HMSA (week 16, P = 0.0001; week48, P = 0.001) and POC (week 16, P = 0.0003; week 48, P = 0.0012), and similar results were observed with infliximab trough level at week 16 (HMSA, P = 0.019; POC, P = 0.0072). Overall, we observed a good correlation between the techniques for both infliximab (r = 0.76; P < 0.0001) and adalimumab (r = 0.75; P < 0.0001), with no difference in discriminatory accuracy between assays (infliximab: HMSA versus POC c-index, 0.921 versus 0.895, P =0.149; adalimumab: HMSA versus POC c-index, 0.817 versus 0.850, P = 0.197). CONCLUSION: Both POC and HMSA assays are able to reliably differentiate relapse and remission phases in Crohn's disease patients treated with anti-TNF. These techniques showed good concordance and we feel that their preferential use should be based on local accessibility, physicians' experience and preference, and the need for timeliness availability of results.

A Nomogram-Based Prognostic Model for Advanced Hepatocellular Carcinoma Patients Treated with Sorafenib: A Multicenter Study.

Among scores and staging systems used for HCC, none showed a good prognostic ability in patients with advanced HCC treated with Sorafenib. We aimed to evaluate predictive factors of overall survival (OS) and drug response in HCC patients undergoing Sorafenib included in the Italian Liver Cancer (ITA.LI.CA.) multicenter cohort. Patients in the ITA.LI.CA database treated with Sorafenib and updated on 30 June 2019 were included. Demographic and clinical data before starting Sorafenib treatment were considered. For the evaluation of predictive factors for OS, a time-dependent Cox proportional hazard model was used. A total of 1107 patients were included in our analysis. The mean age was 64.3 years and 81.7% were male. Most patients were staged as BCLC B (205, 18.9%) or C (706, 65.1%). The median time of Sorafenib administration was 4 months (interquartile range (IQR) 2-12), and the median OS was 10 months (IQR: 4-20). A total of 263 patients (33.8%) out of 780 with available evaluation experienced objective tumoral response to Sorafenib. The Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group (ECOG) Performance Status (PS) (hazard ratio (HR) 1.284), maximum tumoral diameter (HR 1.100), plasma total bilirubin (HR 1.119), aspartate amino transferase assessed as multiple of the upper normal value (HR 1.032), alpha-fetoprotein ≥200 ng/mL (HR 1.342), hemoglobin (HR 0.903) and platelet count (HR 1.002) were associated with OS at multivariate Cox regression analysis. Drug response was predicted by maximum tumoral diameter and platelet count. A novel prognostic nomogram for patients undergoing Sorafenib is hereby proposed. The novelty introduced is the comprehensive patient's assessment using common markers of patient's general status, liver damage and function and HCC biology. Further studies are required to test its accuracy and provide external validation.

Prevention Strategies for Esophageal Cancer-An Expert Review.

In the last 30 years, we have witnessed a rapid increase in the incidence and prevalence of esophageal cancer in many countries around the word. However, despite advancements in diagnostic technologies, the early detection of this cancer is rare, and its prognosis remains poor, with only about 20% of these patients surviving for 5 years. The two major forms are the esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC), which is particularly frequent in the so-called Asian belt, and the esophageal adenocarcinoma (EAC), which prevails in Western populations. This review provides a summary of the epidemiological features and risk factors associated with these tumors. Moreover, a major focus is posed on reporting and highlighting the various preventing strategies proposed by the most important international scientific societies, particularly in high-risk populations, with the final aim of detecting these lesions as early as possible and therefore favoring their definite cure. Indeed, we have conducted analysis with attention to the current primary, secondary and tertiary prevention guidelines in both ESCC and EAC, attempting to emphasize unresolved research and clinical problems related to these topics in order to improve our diagnostic strategies and management.

Procedure-related bleeding risk in patients with cirrhosis and severe thrombocytopenia.

BACKGROUND: Gaps of knowledge still exist about the potential association between severe thrombocytopenia and increased risk of procedure-associated bleeding in patients with liver disease. METHODS: In this narrative review, we aimed at examining the association between procedure-related bleeding risk and platelet count in patients with cirrhosis and severe thrombocytopenia in various settings. We updated to 2020 a previously conducted literature search using MEDLINE/PubMed and EMBASE. The search string included clinical studies, adult patients with chronic liver disease and thrombocytopenia undergoing invasive procedures, any interventions and comparators, and haemorrhagic events of any severity as outcome. RESULTS: The literature search identified 1276 unique publications, and 15 studies met the inclusion criteria and were analysed together with those identified by the previous search. Most of the new studies included in our analysis did not assess the association between post-procedural bleeding risk and platelet count alone in patients with chronic liver disease. Furthermore, some results could have been biased by prophylactic platelet transfusions. A few studies found that severe thrombocytopenia may be predictive of bleeding following percutaneous liver biopsy, dental extractions, percutaneous ablation of liver tumours and endoscopic polypectomy. CONCLUSIONS: Currently available literature cannot support definitive conclusions about the appropriate target platelet counts to improve the risk of bleeding in cirrhotic patients who underwent invasive procedures; moreover, it showed enormous variability in the use of prophylactic platelet transfusions.

Comparison of prognostic models in advanced hepatocellular carcinoma patients undergoing Sorafenib: A multicenter study.

BACKGROUND: Sorafenib is the gold standard therapy for the advanced hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). No scoring/staging is universally accepted to predict the survival of these patients. AIMS: To evaluate the accuracy of the available prognostic models for HCC to predict the survival of advanced HCC patients treated with Sorafenib included in the Italian Liver Cancer (ITA.LI.CA.) multicenter cohort. METHODS: The performance of several prognostic scores was assessed through a Cox regression-model evaluating the C-index and the Akaike Information Criterion (AIC). RESULTS: Data of 1129 patients were analyzed. The mean age of patients was 61.6 years, and 80.8% were male. During a median follow-up period of 13 months, 789 patients died. The median period of Sorafenib administration was 4 months. All the prognostic scores were able to predict the overall survival (p<0.001) at univariate analysis, except the Albumin-Bilirubin score. The Italian Liver Cancer score (CLIP) yielded the highest accuracy (C-index 0.604, AIC 9898), followed by the ITA.LI.CA. prognostic score (C-index 0.599, AIC 9915). CONCLUSIONS: The CLIP score had the highest accuracy in predicting the overall survival of HCC patients treated with Sorafenib, although its performance remained poor. Further studies are needed to refine the current ability to predict the outcome of HCC patients undergoing Sorafenib.

Esophageal reflux hypersensitivity: Non-GERD or still GERD?

The most recent iteration of the classifications for functional esophageal disorders, Rome IV, proposed relevant modifications of the previous definitions for Rome III. They specifically considered increased esophageal acid exposure as the marker of gastroesophageal reflux disease (GERD), including the remaining part of non-erosive reflux disease patients with normal acid in the group with functional alterations, considering both reflux hypersensitivity and functional heartburn. However, recent pathophysiological and therapeutic data suggest the need for a return to including reflux hypersensitivity in the GERD spectrum. Indeed, physiologic alterations in esophageal mucosal integrity and chemical clearance, the presence of microscopic esophagitis, and strict symptom-reflux association support the concept that reflux hypersensitivity pertains to GERD. Surgical anti-reflux therapy has resulted in positive outcomes, even in the long term, in patients with reflux hypersensitivity and not in those with functional heartburn. Moreover, clinical trials using neuromodulators have been scarce and provided conflicting results. As a result, the real progress of the Rome IV classifications is in dispute. This article aims to summarize the most recent knowledge of non-erosive reflux disease and reflux hypersensitivity to discuss the utility of Rome IV criteria in the identification and management of functional esophageal disorders.

Undefined/non-malignant hepatic nodules are associated with early occurrence of HCC in DAA-treated patients with HCV-related cirrhosis.

BACKGROUND & AIM: An unexpected early increase in incidence, recurrence and clinical aggressiveness of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) has been reported (and refuted) in patients with HCV-related cirrhosis following direct-acting antiviral (DAA) treatment. To address this controversy, we performed a prospective multicenter study on consecutively enrolled cirrhotic patients, with or without a history of HCC, undergoing DAA therapy. PATIENTS AND METHODS: A total of 1,161 HCC-free cirrhotics (group 1) and 124 cirrhotics who had received a curative treatment for an HCC (group 2) were enrolled. Clinical features, including presence of undefined/non-malignant liver nodules (UNMNs), were analyzed with respect to HCC incidence and recurrence. RESULTS: During a median study time of 17 months in group 1 and 16 months in group 2, de novo HCC developed in 48 patients (yearly incidence 3.1/100 patient-years, 75% BCLC 0-A) and recurred in 40 (mean yearly incidence 29.9/100 patient-years, 83% BCLC 0-A). A peak of HCC instant incidence was observed at 4.2 months in group 1 patients with UNMNs, and at 7.7 months in group 2. By multivariable Cox regression models, UNMNs (hazard ratio [HR] 3.11; 95% CI 1.47-6.57: p = 0.003), ascites detected any time before enrolment (HR 3.04; 95% CI 1.23-7.51; p = 0.02), and alpha-fetoprotein log-value (HR 1.90; 95% CI 1.05-3.44; p = 0.03) were the variables independently associated with the incidence of de novo HCC, while history of alcohol abuse (HR 2.10; 95% CI 1.08-4.09; p = 0.03) and history of recurrence of HCC (HR 2.87; 95% CI 1.35-6.09; p = 0.006) were associated with HCC recurrence. CONCLUSION: An early high incidence of both de novo HCC, in patients with UNMNs, and recurrent HCC was observed in DAA-treated patients; this was not accompanied by increased tumor aggressiveness. LAY SUMMARY: This prospective study focuses on the risk of developing de novo or recurrent hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) after direct-acting antiviral (DAA) treatment in patients with hepatitis C-related cirrhosis. We found that DAA treatment was associated with an early high HCC incidence in patients with undefined or non-malignant nodules, as well as in those with a history of complete response to HCC treatment. Whether this is related to the presence of clinically undetectable nests of cancer cells or to precancerous lesions that may progress to overt HCC upon DAA treatment remains unanswered. No evidence of increased clinical aggressiveness was reported in de novo or recurrent HCC.

Long term results of down-staging and liver transplantation for patients with hepatocellular carcinoma beyond the conventional criteria.

The objective of the study is to evaluate 10 years of down-staging strategy for liver transplantation (LT) with a median follow-up of 5 years. Data on long-term results are poor and less information is available for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) non-responder patients or those ineligible for down-staging. The outcome of 308 HCC candidates and the long-term results of 231 LTs for HCC performed between 2003 and 2013 were analyzed. HCCs were divided according to tumor stage and response to therapy: 145 patients were T2 (metering Milan Criteria, MC), 43 were T3 successfully down-staged to T2 (Down-Achieved), 20 were T3 not fully down-staged to T2 (Down-not Achieved), and 23 patients were T3 not receiving down-staging treatments (No-Down). The average treatment effect (ATE) of LT for T3 tumors was estimated using the outcome of 535 T3 patients undergoing non-LT therapies, using inverse probability weighting regression adjustment. The 24-month drop-out rate during waiting time was significantly higher in the down-staging groups: 27.6% vs. 9.2%, p < 0.005. After LT, the tumor recurrence rate was significantly different: MC 7.6%, Down-Achieved 20.9%, Down-not Achieved 31.6%, and No-Down 30.4% (p < 0.001). The survival rates at 5 years were: 63% in Down-Achieved, 62% in Down-not Achieved, 63% in No-Down, and 77% in MC (p = n.s.). The only variable related to a better outcome was the effective down-staging to T2 at the histological evaluation of the explanted liver: recurrence rate = 7.8% vs. 26% (p < 0.001) and 5-year patient survival = 76% vs. 67% (p < 0.05). The ATE estimation showed that the mean survival of T3-LT candidates was significantly better than that of T3 patients ineligible for LT [83.3 vs 39.2 months (+44.6 months); p < 0.001]. Long term outcome of T3 down-staged candidates was poorer than that of MC candidates, particularly for cases not achieving down-staging. However, their survival outcome was significantly better than that achieved with non-transplant therapies.

The role of small intestinal bacterial overgrowth in cystic fibrosis: a randomized case-controlled clinical trial with rifaximin.

BACKGROUND: Scientific literature shows a high prevalence of Small Intestinal Bacterial Overgrowth (SIBO) in patients with Cystic Fibrosis (CF). The role of SIBO in nutritional status and gastrointestinal symptoms in CF is not known. Our aim was to study epidemiology and clinical impact of SIBO while assessing the efficacy of rifaximin in eradicating SIBO in CF patients. METHODS: Symptoms questionnaire and Glucose Breath Test (GBT) were given to 79 CF patients (median age 19.6 years; 9.2-36.9). Subjects with a positive GBT were enrolled in a randomized controlled trial and received rifaximin 1200 mg for 14 days or no treatment. Questionnaire and GBT were repeated 1 month after the end of treatment or 45 days after the first negative GBT. RESULTS: Out of 79 patients, 25 were affected by SIBO (31.6%) with a significant correlation with lower BMI, SDS-BMI (p < 0.05) and serum albumin levels (p < 0.05), independently from pancreas insufficiency. Twenty-three patients took part in the randomized trial, 13 patients (56.5%) in rifaximin group and 10 patients (43.5%) in control group. Eradication rate of SIBO was 9/10 (90%) in rifaximin group and 2/6 (33.3%) in control group (p < 0.05). In the rifaximin group, gastrointestinal symptom improvement was observed in 4/5 patients aged ≤ 14 years and in 0/5 patients aged > 14 years (p < 0.05); in 2/6 patients in the control group. CONCLUSIONS: CF patients show a high prevalence of SIBO, related to a poorer nutritional status. Rifaximin therapy is well tolerated and the results are promising in terms of efficacy in eradicating small intestinal bacterial overgrowth in CF.

Recurrence of hepatocellular carcinoma after direct acting antiviral treatment for hepatitis C virus infection: Literature review and risk analysis.

Although studies suggest decreased incident hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) after treatment with direct-acting antivirals (DAAs) for hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection, data are conflicting regarding risk and aggressiveness of recurrence in patients who have a history of treated HCC. This review analyses data available in literature in order to elucidate the impact of DAAs on the risk of HCC recurrence after successful treatment of the tumor. Overall 24 papers were identified. The available data cannot be considered definitive, but the initial alarmist data indicating an increased risk of recurrence have not been confirmed by most subsequent studies. The suggested aggressive pattern (rapid growth and vascular invasion) of tumor recurrence after DAAs still remains to be confirmed. Several limitations of the available studies were highlighted, and should drive future researches. The time-to-recurrence should be computed since the last HCC treatment and results stratified for cirrhosis and sustained viral response. Any comparison with historical series is of limited interest because of a number of biases affecting these studies and differences between enrolled patients. Prospective intention-to-treat analyses will be probably the best contribution to drive clinical practice, provided that a randomized trial can be difficult to design.

Treatment of early stage chronic hepatitis C virus infection.

INTRODUCTION: Treatment of Hepatitis C Virus (HCV) with direct acting antivirals (DAAs) is able to achieve the cure of infection in almost the totality of patients, independently of the characteristics of the individual and the virus, using short treatment schedules, and without the need of ribavirin. The high cost of DAAs is the main limiting factor for universal treatment of HCV. However, there is a strong evidence that treatment of infection at the early stage of disease may be the most rewarding approach. Areas covered: This review evaluates the aspects underlying the benefit of treating chronic HCV infection at the early stage of disease. It outlines the considerations that have to be taken into account when planning treatment in patients with HCV and minimal liver disease, assessing the positive reflex of viral eradication on several HCV-associated extra-hepatic conditions such as the risk of lymphoma, insulin-resistance and glycaemic control, and renal function. Lastly, it also covers the improvement of patients' quality of life and the pharmaco-economic aspects associated with early treatment. Expert commentary: Treatment of patients with HCV and minimal liver disease is associated with a beneficial, pleiotropic effect of viral eradication that goes beyond the simplistic consideration of the improvement in liver disease-related outcomes.

Patients with advanced hepatocellular carcinoma need a personalized management: A lesson from clinical practice.

The Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer (BCLC) advanced stage (BCLC C) of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) includes a heterogeneous population, where sorafenib alone is the recommended treatment. In this study, our aim was to assess treatment and overall survival (OS) of BCLC C patients subclassified according to clinical features (performance status [PS], macrovascular invasion [MVI], extrahepatic spread [EHS] or MVI + EHS) determining their allocation to this stage. From the Italian Liver Cancer database, we analyzed 835 consecutive BCLC C patients diagnosed between 2008 and 2014. Patients were subclassified as: PS1 alone (n = 385; 46.1%), PS2 alone (n = 146; 17.5%), MVI (n = 224; 26.8%), EHS (n = 51; 6.1%), and MVI + EHS (n = 29; 3.5%). MVI, EHS, and MVI + EHS patients had larger and multifocal/massive HCCs and higher alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) levels than PS1 and PS2 patients. Median OS significantly declined from PS1 (38.6 months) to PS2 (22.3 months), EHS (11.2 months), MVI (8.2 months), and MVI + EHS (3.1 months; P < 0.001). Among MVI patients, OS was longer in those with peripheral than with central (portal trunk) MVI (11.2 vs. 7.1 months; P = 0.005). The most frequent treatments were: curative approaches in PS1 (39.7%), supportive therapy in PS2 (41.8%), sorafenib in MVI (39.3%) and EHS (37.3%), and best supportive care in MVI + EHS patients (51.7%). Independent prognostic factors were: Model for End-stage Liver Disease score, Child-Pugh class, ascites, platelet count, albumin, tumor size, MVI, EHS, AFP levels, and treatment type. CONCLUSION: BCLC C stage does not identify patients homogeneous enough to be allocated to a single stage. PS1 alone is not sufficient to include a patient into this stage. The remaining patients should be subclassified according to PS and tumor features, and new patient-tailored therapeutic indications are needed. (Hepatology 2018;67:1784-1796).

Factors that affect efficacy of ultrasound surveillance for early stage hepatocellular carcinoma in patients with cirrhosis.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Ultrasound surveillance does not detect early stage hepatocellular carcinomas (HCCs) in some patients with cirrhosis, although the reasons for this have not been well studied. We assessed the rate at which ultrasound fails to detect early stage HCCs and factors that affect its performance. METHODS: We collected information on 1170 consecutive patients included in the Italian Liver Cancer (ITA.LI.CA) database who had Child-Pugh A or B cirrhosis and were diagnosed with HCC during semiannual or annual ultrasound surveillance, from January 1987 through December 2008. Etiologies included hepatitis C virus infection (59.3%), alcohol abuse (11.3%), hepatitis B virus infection (9%), a combination of factors (15.6%), and other factors (4.7%). Surveillance was considered to be a failure when patients were diagnosed with HCC at a stage beyond the Milan criteria (1 nodule ≤5 cm or ≤3 nodules each ≤3 cm). RESULTS: HCC was found beyond Milan criteria in 34.3% of surveilled patients (32.2% during semi-annual surveillance and 41.3% during annual surveillance; P < .01). Nearly half of surveillance failures were associated with at least one indicator of aggressive HCC (levels of AFP >1000 ng/mL, infiltrating tumors, or vascular invasion and metastases). Semiannual surveillance, female sex, Child-Pugh class A, and α-fetoprotein levels of 200 ng/mL or less were associated independently with successful ultrasound screening for HCC. CONCLUSIONS: Based on our analysis of surveillance for HCC in patients with cirrhosis, the efficacy of ultrasound-based screening is acceptable. Ultrasound was least effective in identifying aggressive HCC, and at surveillance intervals of more than 6 months.

Cost-effectiveness of semi-annual surveillance for hepatocellular carcinoma in cirrhotic patients of the Italian Liver Cancer population.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: It was recently shown that semi-annual surveillance for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in cirrhotic patients provides a prognostic advantage over the annual program; however, its cost-effectiveness (CE) in the general cirrhotic population still needs to be defined. METHODS: A Markov model was built to compare CE of these two strategies, considering literature results and treatment modalities of 918 cirrhotic patients from the Italian Liver Cancer (ITA.LI.CA) database. RESULTS: Results from the Markov model suggest that, compared to annual surveillance, semi-annual surveillance leads to a gain in quality-adjusted life expectancy, in an unselected cirrhotic population, of 1.35 quality-adjusted life-months (QALMs) over 10 years since surveillance start in compensated patients, and of 0.73 QALMs in decompensated patients. Semi-annual surveillance was more cost-effective in compensated than in decompensated cirrhosis, with an incremental CE ratio (ICER) of 1997 and 3814€/QALM, respectively. In compensated cirrhosis, semi-annual surveillance was more cost-effective than the annual program when the annual HCC incidence was ≥3.2% and the relative survival gain after cancer diagnosis was ≥20% with respect to the annual program. In decompensated cirrhosis, semi-annual surveillance was cost-effective in patients amenable to liver transplantation. In both groups, CE of semi-annual surveillance improved with the increase of annual incidence and the survival benefit obtainable with HCC treatment. CONCLUSIONS: Both surveillance strategies for HCC in cirrhotic patients can be recommended, according to the individual risk profile for HCC occurrence and the expected survival gain obtainable after tumor diagnosis and therapy.

The changing scenario of hepatocellular carcinoma over the last two decades in Italy.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: This study investigates whether the aetiologic changes in liver disease and the improved management of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) have modified the clinical scenario of this tumour over the last 20 years in Italy. METHODS: Retrospective study based on the analysis of the ITA.LI.CA (Italian Liver Cancer) database including 3027 HCC patients managed in 11 centres. Patients were divided into 3 groups according to the period of HCC diagnosis: 1987-1996 (year of the "Milano criteria" publication), 1997-2001 (year of release of the EASL guidelines for HCC), and 2002-2008. RESULTS: The significant changes were: (1) progressive patient ageing; (2) increasing prevalence of HCV infection until 2001, with a subsequent decrease, when the alcoholic aetiology increased; (3) liver function improvement, until 2001; (4) increasing "incidental" at the expense of "symptomatic" diagnoses, until 2001; (5) unchanged prevalence of tumours diagnosed during surveillance (around 50%), with an increasing use of the 6-month schedule; (6) favourable HCC "stage migration", until 2001; (7) increasing use of percutaneous ablation; (8) improving survival, until 2001. CONCLUSIONS: Over the last 20 years, several aetiologic and clinical features regarding HCC have changed. The survival improvement observed until 2001 was due to an increasing number of tumours diagnosed in early stages and in a background of compensated cirrhosis, and a growing and better use of locoregional treatments. However, the prevalence of early cancers and survival did not increase further in the last years, a result inciting national policies aimed at implementing surveillance programmes for at risk patients.