Use of health services among long-term breast cancer survivors in Spain: longitudinal study based on real-world data.

PURPOSE: This study aimed to evaluate health service utilization in Spain among long-term breast cancer survivors and to compare it with that among women with no history of breast cancer. METHODS: Study based on the SURBCAN cohort includes a sample of long-term breast cancer survivors and a sample of women without breast cancer from 5 Spanish regions. Healthcare utilization was assessed through primary care, hospital visits, and tests during the follow-up period (2012 to 2016) by using electronic health records. Annual contact rates to healthcare services were calculated, and crude and multivariate count models were fitted to estimate the adjusted relative risk of healthcare services use. RESULTS: Data were obtained from 19,328 women, including 6512 long-term breast cancer survivors. Healthcare use was higher among breast cancer survivors (20.9 vs 16.6; p < 0.0001) and decreased from >10 years of survival. Breast cancer survivors who underwent a mastectomy were more likely to have a primary care visit (RR = 3.10 95% CI 3.08-3.11). Five to ten years survivors were more likely to have hospital inpatient visits and imaging test compared to women without breast cancer (RRa = 1.35 95% CI 1.30-1.39 and RRa = 1.27 95% CI 1.25-1.29 respectively). CONCLUSION: This study shows higher use of health services in long-term breast cancer survivors than in women without breast cancer regardless of survival time. IMPLICATIONS FOR CANCER SURVIVORS: These results help to estimate the health resources needed for the growing group of breast cancer survivors and to identify risk factors that drive higher use of health services.

Multisystem chronic illness prognostication in non-oncologic integrated care.

OBJECTIVES: To develop a mortality-predictive model for correct identification of patients with non-cancer multiple chronic conditions who would benefit from palliative care, recognise predictive indicators of death and provide with tools for individual risk score calculation. DESIGN: Retrospective observational study with multivariate logistic regression models. PARTICIPANTS: All patients with high-risk multiple chronic conditions incorporated into an integrated care strategy that fulfil two conditions: (1) they belong to the top 5% of the programme's risk pyramid according to the adjusted morbidity groups stratification tool and (2) they suffer simultaneously at least three selected chronic non-cancer pathologies (n=591). MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE: 1 year mortality since patient inclusion in the programme. RESULTS: Among study participants, 201 (34%) died within the 1 year follow-up. Variables found to be independently associated to 1 year mortality were the Barthel Scale (p<0.001), creatinine value (p=0.032), existence of pressure ulcers (p=0.029) and patient global status (p<0.001). The area under the curve (AUC) for our model was 0.751, which was validated using bootstrapping (AUC=0.751) and k-fold cross-validation (10 folds; AUC=0.744). The Hosmer-Lemeshow test (p=0.761) showed good calibration. CONCLUSIONS: This study develops and validates a mortality prediction model that will guide transitions of care to non-cancer palliative care services. The model determines prognostic indicators of death and provides tools for the estimation of individual death risk scores for each patient. We present a nomogram, a graphical risk calculation instrument, that favours a practical and easy use of the model within clinical practices.