Efficient risk-based collection of biospecimens in cohort studies: Designing a prospective study of diagnostic performance for multicancer detection tests.

In cohort studies, it can be infeasible to collect specimens on an entire cohort. For example, to estimate sensitivity of multiple Multi-Cancer Detection (MCD) assays, we desire an extra 80mL of cell-free DNA (cfDNA) blood, but this much extra blood is too expensive for us to collect on everyone. We propose a novel epidemiologic study design that efficiently oversamples those at highest baseline disease risk from whom to collect specimens, to increase the number of future cases with cfDNA blood collection. The variance reduction ratio from our risk-based subsample versus a simple random (sub)sample (SRS) depends primarily on the ratio of risk model sensitivity to the fraction of the cohort selected for specimen collection subject to constraining the risk model specificity. In a simulation where we chose 34% of Prostate, Lung, Colorectal, and Ovarian Screening Trial cohort at highest risk of lung cancer for cfDNA blood collection, we could enrich the number of lung cancers 2.42-fold and the standard deviation of lung-cancer MCD sensitivity was 31-33% reduced versus SRS. Risk-based collection of specimens on a subsample of the cohort could be a feasible and efficient approach to collecting extra specimens for molecular epidemiology.

Multivitamin Use and Mortality Risk in 3 Prospective US Cohorts.

Importance: One in 3 US adults uses multivitamins (MV), with a primary motivation being disease prevention. In 2022, the US Preventive Services Task Force reviewed data on MV supplementation and mortality from randomized clinical trials and found insufficient evidence for determining benefits or harms owing, in part, to limited follow-up time and external validity. Objective: To estimate the association of MV use with mortality risk, accounting for confounding by healthy lifestyle and reverse causation whereby individuals in poor health initiate MV use. Design, Setting, and Participants: This cohort study used data from 3 prospective cohort studies in the US, each with baseline MV use (assessed from 1993 to 2001), and follow-up MV use (assessed from 1998 to 2004), extended duration of follow-up up to 27 years, and extensive characterization of potential confounders. Participants were adults, without a history of cancer or other chronic diseases, who participated in National Institutes of Health-AARP Diet and Health Study (327 732 participants); Prostate, Lung, Colorectal, and Ovarian Cancer Screening Trial (42 732 participants); or Agricultural Health Study (19 660 participants). Data were analyzed from June 2022 to April 2024. Exposure: Self-reported MV use. Main Outcomes and Measures: The main outcome was mortality. Cox proportional hazard models were used to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% CIs. Results: Among 390 124 participants (median [IQR] age, 61.5 [56.7-66.0] years; 216 202 [55.4%] male), 164 762 deaths occurred during follow-up; 159 692 participants (40.9%) were never smokers, and 157 319 participants (40.3%) were college educated. Among daily MV users, 49.3% and 42.0% were female and college educated, compared with 39.3% and 37.9% among nonusers, respectively. In contrast, 11.0% of daily users, compared with 13.0% of nonusers, were current smokers. MV use was not associated with lower all-cause mortality risk in the first (multivariable-adjusted HR, 1.04; 95% CI, 1.02-1.07) or second (multivariable-adjusted HR, 1.04; 95% CI, 0.99-1.08) halves of follow-up. HRs were similar for major causes of death and time-varying analyses. Conclusions and Relevance: In this cohort study of US adults, MV use was not associated with a mortality benefit. Still, many US adults report using MV to maintain or improve health.

The risk and benefit profiles of US eligible lung cancer screening attendees vs. non-attendees.

BACKGROUND: The United States Preventive Services Task Force (USPSTF) recommend lung-cancer screening for individuals aged 50-80 with ≥20 pack-years and ≤15 quit-years, but uptake is low. The risk and benefit profiles of screening attendees are unknown; consequently, the impact and lost opportunity of ongoing lung-cancer screening in the US remains unclear. METHODS: We estimated lung-cancer death risk (using the Lung Cancer Death Risk Assessment Tool) and life gained from screening (using the LYFS-CT model) for individuals 50-79 who ever-smoked in the US-representative 2022 Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System. We compared lung-cancer death risk and life-gained among USPSTF-eligible individuals by screening status (self-reported screened vs not screened in past year), and estimated the number of lung-cancer deaths averted and life-years gained under current screening levels and if everyone eligible was screened. RESULTS: USPSTF-eligibility was 33.7% (95%CI:33.1-34.4%), of whom 17.9% (95%CI : 17.0-18.8%) self-reported screening. Screening uptake increased with increasing lung-cancer death risk quintile (Q1 = 5.2% (95%CI : 3.0%-8.8%); Q5 = 21.8% (95%CI : 20.3%-23.3%)) and life-gain from screening quintile (Q1 = 6.2% (95%CI : 3.8%-9.9%); Q5 = 20.8% (95%CI : 19.5%-22.2%)). Screened individuals had higher lung-cancer death risk (Risk Ratio [RR]=1.35, 95%CI : 1.26-1.46) and life-years gained (RR = 1.19, 95%CI : 1.12-1.25) than unscreened individuals. Currently screening averts 19,306 lung-cancer deaths and gains 237,564 life-years; screening everyone eligible would additionally avert 56,956 lung-cancer deaths and gain 751,850 life-years. Two-thirds of USPSTF-lung-eligible women were up-to-date with breast-cancer screening, but only 17.3% attended lung screening in the past year. CONCLUSIONS: Eligible screening attendees had higher lung-cancer death risk and benefit from screening. Higher rates of screening could substantially increase the number of lung-cancer deaths prevented.

Estimating impacts of reducing acrylonitrile exposure on lung cancer mortality in an occupational cohort with the parametric g-formula.

OBJECTIVES: To inform the potential human carcinogenicity of acrylonitrile, we estimate associations between acrylonitrile exposures and lung cancer mortality in US workers with the objectives of (1) assessing potential for healthy worker survivor bias and (2) adjusting for this bias while assessing the expected lung cancer mortality under different hypothetical occupational exposure limits on acrylonitrile exposure using the parametric g-formula. METHODS: We used data from a cohort of 25 460 workers at facilities making or using acrylonitrile in the USA. We estimated HRs to quantify associations between employment and lung cancer mortality, and exposure and leaving employment. Using the parametric g-formula, we estimated cumulative lung cancer mortality at hypothetical limits on acrylonitrile exposure. RESULTS: Recent and current employment was associated with lung cancer, and exposure was associated with leaving employment, indicating potential for healthy worker survivor bias. Relative to no intervention, reducing the historical exposure under limits of 2.0, 1.0 and 0.45 parts per million would have been expected to reduce lung cancer mortality by age 90 by 4.46 (95% CI 0.78 to 8.15), 5.03 (95% CI 0.96 to 9.11) and 6.45 (95% CI 2.35 to 10.58) deaths per 1000 workers, respectively. A larger lung cancer mortality reduction would be expected under elimination of exposure: 7.21 (95% CI 2.72 to 11.70) deaths per 1000 workers. CONCLUSIONS: Healthy worker survivor bias likely led to underestimation of excess risk. Our results corroborate previous study findings of an excess hazard of lung cancer among the highest exposed workers.

White Blood Cell Count, Neutrophil-to-Lymphocyte Ratio, and Incident Cancer in the UK Biobank.

BACKGROUND: The peripheral white blood cell (WBC) and neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR) reflect levels of inflammation and adaptive immunity. They are associated with cancer prognosis, but their associations with cancer incidence are not established. METHODS: We evaluated 443,540 cancer-free adults in the UK Biobank with data on total WBC and its subsets, follow-up starting one year after baseline. Cox regression was used to estimate hazard ratios (HR) per quartile of WBC or NLR for incidence of 73 cancer types. RESULTS: 22,747 incident cancers were diagnosed during a median of 6.9 years of follow-up. WBC was associated with risk of cancer overall [HR, 1.05; 95% confidence interval (CI), 1.03-1.06], chronic lymphocytic leukemia/small lymphocytic leukemia (CLL/SLL, 2.79; 95% CI, 2.45-3.18), lung cancer (1.14, 95% CI, 1.08-1.20), and breast cancer (95% CI, 1.05-1.02-1.08). NLR was positively associated with cancer overall (HR, 1.03; 95% CI, 1.02-1.04, per quartile) and kidney cancer (1.16; 95% CI, 1.07-1.25), and inversely with CLL/SLL (0.38; 95% CI, 0.33-0.42). CONCLUSIONS: High WBC or NLR may reflect excessive inflammatory status, promoting development of some cancers. Conversely, low NLR indicates a relative rise in lymphocytes, which could reflect an increase in circulating premalignant cells before CLL/SLL diagnosis. Peripheral WBC and NLR, in combination with other clinical information or biomarkers, may be useful tools for cancer risk stratification. IMPACT: Elevated levels of WBCs or an increased NLR may indicate an overly active inflammatory response, potentially contributing to the eventual onset of certain types of cancer.

Fiber and whole grain intakes in relation to liver cancer risk: An analysis in 2 prospective cohorts and systematic review and meta-analysis of prospective studies.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: The association between fiber or whole grain intakes and the risk of liver cancer remains unclear. We assessed the associations between fiber or whole grain intakes and liver cancer risk among 2 prospective studies, and systematically reviewed and meta-analyzed these results with published prospective studies. APPROACH AND RESULTS: A total of 111,396 participants from the Prostate, Lung, Colorectal, and Ovarian Cancer Screening Trial (PLCO) and 26,085 men from the Alpha-Tocopherol, Beta-Carotene Cancer Prevention Study were included. Intakes of total fiber and whole grains were estimated from validated food frequency questionnaires. Study-specific HRs and 95% CI with liver cancer risk were estimated using multivariable-adjusted Cox regression. We systematically reviewed existing literature, and studies were combined in a dose-response meta-analysis. A total of 277 (median follow-up = 15.6 y) and 165 (median follow-up = 16.0 y) cases of liver cancer were observed in Prostate, Lung, Colorectal, and Ovarian Cancer Screening Trial and Alpha-Tocopherol, Beta-Carotene Cancer Prevention Study, respectively. Dietary fiber was inversely associated with liver cancer risk in Prostate, Lung, Colorectal, and Ovarian Cancer Screening Trial (HR 10g/day : 0.69; 95% CI: 0.55-0.86). No significant associations were observed between whole grain intakes and liver cancer risk in either study. Our meta-analysis included 2383 incident liver cancer cases (7 prospective cohorts) for fiber intake and 1523 cases (5 prospective cohorts) for whole grain intake; combined HRs for liver cancer risk were 0.83 (0.76-0.91) per 10 g/day of fiber and 0.92 (0.85-0.99) per 16 g/day (1 serving) of whole grains. CONCLUSIONS: Dietary fiber and whole grains were inversely associated with liver cancer risk. Further research exploring potential mechanisms and different fiber types is needed.

Sociodemographic inequities in the burden of carcinogenic industrial air emissions in the United States.

BACKGROUND: Industrial facilities are not located uniformly across communities in the United States, but how the burden of exposure to carcinogenic air emissions may vary across population characteristics is unclear. We evaluated differences in carcinogenic industrial pollution among major sociodemographic groups in the United States and Puerto Rico. METHODS: We evaluated cross-sectional associations of population characteristics including race and ethnicity, educational attainment, and poverty at the census tract level with point-source industrial emissions of 21 known human carcinogens using regulatory data from the US Environmental Protection Agency. Odds ratios and 95% confidence intervals comparing the highest emissions (tertile or quintile) to the referent group (zero emissions [ie, nonexposed]) for all sociodemographic characteristics were estimated using multinomial, population density-adjusted logistic regression models. RESULTS: In 2018, approximately 7.4 million people lived in census tracts with nearly 12 million pounds of carcinogenic air releases. The odds of tracts having the greatest burden of benzene, 1,3-butadiene, ethylene oxide, formaldehyde, trichloroethylene, and nickel emissions compared with nonexposed were 10%-20% higher for African American populations, whereas White populations were up to 18% less likely to live in tracts with the highest emissions. Among Hispanic and Latino populations, odds were 16%-21% higher for benzene, 1,3-butadiene, and ethylene oxide. Populations experiencing poverty or with less than high school education were associated with up to 51% higher burden, irrespective of race and ethnicity. CONCLUSIONS: Carcinogenic industrial emissions disproportionately impact African American and Hispanic and Latino populations and people with limited education or experiencing poverty thus representing a source of pollution that may contribute to observed cancer disparities.

Identification of pre-diagnostic lipid sets associated with liver cancer risk using untargeted lipidomics and chemical set analysis: A nested case-control study within the ATBC cohort.

In pre-disposed individuals, a reprogramming of the hepatic lipid metabolism may support liver cancer initiation. We conducted a high-resolution mass spectrometry based untargeted lipidomics analysis of pre-diagnostic serum samples from a nested case-control study (219 liver cancer cases and 219 controls) within the Alpha-Tocopherol, Beta-Carotene Cancer Prevention (ATBC) Study. Out of 462 annotated lipids, 158 (34.2%) were associated with liver cancer risk in a conditional logistic regression analysis at a false discovery rate (FDR) <0.05. A chemical set enrichment analysis (ChemRICH) and co-regulatory set analysis suggested that 22/28 lipid classes and 47/83 correlation modules were significantly associated with liver cancer risk (FDR <0.05). Strong positive associations were observed for monounsaturated fatty acids (MUFA), triacylglycerols (TAGs) and phosphatidylcholines (PCs) having MUFA acyl chains. Negative associations were observed for sphingolipids (ceramides and sphingomyelins), lysophosphatidylcholines, cholesterol esters and polyunsaturated fatty acids (PUFA) containing TAGs and PCs. Stearoyl-CoA desaturase enzyme 1 (SCD1), a rate limiting enzyme in fatty acid metabolism and ceramidases seems to be critical in this reprogramming. In conclusion, our study reports pre-diagnostic lipid changes that provide novel insights into hepatic lipid metabolism reprogramming may contribute to a pro-cell growth and anti-apoptotic tissue environment and, in turn, support liver cancer initiation.

Trends in smoking-attributable and smoking-unrelated lung cancer death rates in the U.S., 1991-2018.

BACKGROUND: In the U.S., lung cancer death rates have declined for decades, primarily due to pronounced decreases in cigarette smoking. However, it is unclear whether there have been similar declines in mortality rates of lung cancer unrelated to smoking. We estimated trends in U.S. lung cancer death rates attributable and not attributable to smoking from 1991-2018. METHODS: The study included 30-79-year-olds in the National Health Interview Survey who were linked to the National Death Index, 1991-2014. Adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) for smoking status and lung cancer death were estimated, and age-specific population attributable fractions (PAFs) were calculated. Annual PAFs were multiplied by annual U.S. national lung cancer mortality, partitioning rates into smoking-attributable and smoking-unrelated lung cancer deaths. All statistical tests were two-sided. RESULTS: During 1991-2018, the proportion of never smokers increased among both men (35.1% to 54.6%) and women (54.0% to 65.4%). Compared to ever smokers, never smokers had 86% lower risk (HR = 0.14; 95%CI 0.12, 0.16) of lung cancer death. The fraction of lung cancer deaths attributable to smoking decreased from 81.4% (95%CI 78.9, 81.4) to 74.7% (95%CI 78.1, 71.4). Smoking-attributable lung cancer death rates declined 2.7%/year (95%CI -2.9, -2.5) and smoking-unrelated lung cancer death rates declined 1.8%/year (95%CI -2.0, -1.5); these declines accelerated in recent years. CONCLUSIONS: An increasing proportion of lung cancer deaths are unrelated to smoking, due to declines in smoking prevalence. However, smoking-unrelated lung cancer death rates have declined, perhaps due to decreases in secondhand smoke and air pollution exposure and treatment improvements.

Trends in hepatocellular carcinoma stage by racial/ethnic group in the United States, 1992-2019.

Background & Aims: Although incidence rates of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) began to decline in the United States in the past decade, disparities in rates among racial/ethnic groups have persisted. Whether disparities in stage at diagnosis have remained over time, however, is unclear. Methods: National Cancer Institute's Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) program has created a new staging-over-time variable that facilitates the examination of trends in HCC stage. Thus, the proportions of HCCs diagnosed by stage between 1992 and 2019 were examined among non-Hispanic White, non-Hispanic Black (NHB), Hispanic, Asian/Pacific Islander, and American Indian/Alaska Native (AI/AN) individuals. HCC incidence between 1992 and 2019 was also analysed using Joinpoint regression. Results: Between 1992 and 2019, the proportion of stage 1 HCCs increased and the proportion of stage 4 HCCs decreased among non-Hispanic White, NHB, Hispanic, and Asian/Pacific Islander individuals. Among AI/AN persons, the proportion of stage 1 tumours remained stable, and the proportion of stage 4 tumours declined. In the most recent time period, NHB individuals had the lowest proportions of stage 1 HCCs (32%) and the highest proportion of stage 4 HCCs (20%) of any group. Joinpoint analysis found that HCC incidence began to decline by 2013 among all groups except AI/AN individuals, the only group that had an increase in incidence. Conclusions: Despite generally favourable trends in HCC stage and incidence rates, disparities remain. NHB persons continue to have less favourable stages at diagnosis, and incidence rates continue to increase among AI/AN persons. Impact and implications: HCC incidence rates among most United States racial/ethnic groups began to decline in recent years, but whether stage at diagnosis also improved was unclear. As a result, a new SEER stage variable was used to examine stage trends by race/ethnicity. Although the finding of generally favourable trends in stage as well as incidence is encouraging, continuity disparities in both stage and incidence require serious attention.

Prediagnostic Hormone Levels and Risk of Testicular Germ Cell Tumors: A Nested Case-Control Study in the Janus Serum Bank.

BACKGROUND: It has been hypothesized that poorly functioning Leydig and/or Sertoli cells of the testes, indicated by higher levels of serum gonadotropins and lower levels of androgens, are related to the development of testicular germ cell tumors (TGCT). To investigate this hypothesis, we conducted a nested case-control study within the Janus Serum Bank cohort. METHODS: Men who developed TGCT (n = 182) were matched to men who did not (n = 364). Sex steroid hormones were measured using LC/MS. Sex hormone binding globulin, follicle-stimulating hormone (FSH), and luteinizing hormone (LH) were quantified by direct immunoassay. Multivariable logistic regression was used to calculate ORs and 95% confidence intervals (CI) for associations between hormone levels and TGCT risk. RESULTS: Higher FSH levels [tertile (T) 3 vs. T2: OR = 2.89, 95% CI = 1.83-4.57] were associated with TGCT risk, but higher LH levels were not (OR = 1.26, 95% CI = 0.81-1.96). The only sex steroid hormone associated with risk was androstane-3α, 17ß-diol-3G (3α-diol-3G; OR = 2.37, 95% CI = 1.46-3.83). Analysis by histology found that increased FSH levels were related to seminoma (OR = 3.55, 95% CI = 2.12-5.95) but not nonseminoma (OR = 1.19, 95% CI = 0.38-3.13). Increased levels of 3α-diol-3G were related to seminoma (OR = 2.29, 95% CI = 1.35-3.89) and nonsignificantly related to nonseminoma (OR = 2.71, 95% CI = 0.82-8.92). CONCLUSIONS: Higher FSH levels are consistent with the hypothesis that poorly functioning Sertoli cells are related to the development of TGCT. In contrast, higher levels of 3α-diol-3G do not support the hypothesis that insufficient androgenicity is related to risk of TGCT. IMPACT: Clarifying the role of sex hormones in the development of TGCT may stimulate new research hypotheses.

The Diesel Exhaust in Miners Study (DEMS) II: Temporal Factors Related to Diesel Exhaust Exposure and Lung Cancer Mortality in the Nested Case-Control Study.

BACKGROUND: The Diesel Exhaust in Miners Study (DEMS) was an important contributor to the International Agency for Research on Cancer reclassification of diesel exhaust as a Group I carcinogen and subsequent risk assessment. We extended the DEMS cohort follow-up by 18 y and the nested case-control study to include all newly identified lung cancer deaths and matched controls (DEMS II), nearly doubling the number of lung cancer deaths. OBJECTIVE: Our purpose was to characterize the exposure-response relationship with a focus on the effects of timing of exposure and exposure cessation. METHODS: We conducted a case-control study of lung cancer nested in a cohort of 12,315 workers in eight nonmetal mines (376 lung cancer deaths, 718 controls). Controls were selected from workers who were alive when the case died, individually matched on mine, sex, race/ethnicity, and birth year (within 5 y). Based on an extensive historical exposure assessment, we estimated respirable elemental carbon (REC), an index of diesel exposure, for each cohort member. Odds ratios (ORs) were estimated by conditional regression analyses controlling for smoking and other confounders. To evaluate time windows of exposure, we evaluated the joint OR patterns for cumulative REC within each of four preselected exposure time windows, <5, 5-9, 10-19, and ≥20 y prior to death/reference date, and we evaluated the interaction of cumulative exposure across time windows under additive and multiplicative forms for the joint association. RESULTS: ORs increased with increasing 15-y lagged cumulative exposure, peaking with a tripling of risk for exposures of ∼950 to<1,700 µg/m3-y [OR=3.23; 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.47, 7.10], followed by a plateau/decline among the heavily exposed (OR=1.85; 95% CI: 0.85, 4.04). Patterns of risk by cumulative REC exposure varied across four exposure time windows (phomogeneity<0.001), with ORs increasing for exposures accrued primarily 10-19 y prior to death (ptrend<0.001). Results provided little support for a waning of risk among workers whose exposures ceased for ≥20 y. CONCLUSION: DEMS II findings provide insight into the exposure-response relationship between diesel exhaust and lung cancer mortality. The pronounced effect of exposures occurring in the window 10-19 y prior to death, the sustained risk 20 or more years after exposure ceases, and the plateau/decline in risk among the most heavily exposed provide direction for future research on the mechanism of diesel-induced carcinogenesis in addition to having important implications for the assessment of risk from diesel exhaust by regulatory agencies. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP11980.

Diesel Exhaust Exposure and Cause-Specific Mortality in the Diesel Exhaust in Miners Study II (DEMS II) Cohort.

BACKGROUND: With the exception of lung cancer, the health effects associated with diesel exhaust for other cancers and nonmalignant health outcomes are not well understood. OBJECTIVES: We extended the mortality follow-up of the Diesel Exhaust in Miners Study, a cohort study of 12,315 workers, by 18 y (ending 31 December 2015), more than doubling the number of observed deaths to n=4,887, to evaluate associations between mortality and diesel exhaust exposure. METHODS: Quantitative estimates of historical exposure to respirable elemental carbon (REC), a surrogate for diesel exhaust, were created for all jobs, by year and facility, using measurements collected from each mine, as well as historical measurements. Standardized mortality ratios (SMRs) and hazard ratios (HRs) were estimated for the entire cohort and by worker location (surface, underground). RESULTS: We observed an excess of death for cancers of the lung, trachea, and bronchus (n=409; SMR=1.24; 95% CI: 1.13, 1.37). Among workers who ever worked underground, where the majority of diesel exposure occurred, excess deaths were evident for lung, trachea, and bronchus cancers (n=266; SMR=1.26; 95% CI: 1.11, 1.42). Several nonmalignant diseases were associated with excess mortality among workers ever-employed underground, including ischemic heart disease (SMR=1.08; 95% CI: 1.00, 1.16), cerebrovascular disease (SMR=1.22; 95% CI: 1.04, 1.43), and nonmalignant diseases of the respiratory system (SMR=1.13; 95% CI: 1.01, 1.26). Continuous 15-y lagged cumulative REC exposure <1,280 µg/m3-y was associated with increased lung cancer risk (HR=1.93; 95% CI: 1.24, 3.03), but the risk declined at the highest exposures (HR=1.29; 95% CI: 0.74, 2.26). We also observed a significant trend in non-Hodgkin lymphoma (NHL) risk with increasing 20-y lagged cumulative REC (HRTertile3 vs. Tertile1=3.12; 95% CI: 1.00, 9.79; p-trend=0.031). DISCUSSION: Increased risks of lung cancer mortality observed in the original study were sustained. Observed associations between diesel exposure and risk of death from NHL and the excesses in deaths for diseases of the respiratory and cardiovascular system, including ischemic heart disease and cerebrovascular disease, warrant further study and provide evidence of the potential widespread public health impact of diesel exposure. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP12840.

Endogenous sex steroid hormones and risk of liver cancer among US men: Results from the Liver Cancer Pooling Project.

Background & Aims: Incidence rates of liver cancer in most populations are two to three times higher among men than women. The higher rates among men have led to the suggestion that androgens are related to increased risk whereas oestrogens are related to decreased risk. This hypothesis was investigated in the present study via a nested case-control analysis of pre-diagnostic sex steroid hormone levels among men in five US cohorts. Methods: Concentrations of sex steroid hormones and sex hormone-binding globulin were quantitated using gas chromatography-mass spectrometry and a competitive electrochemiluminescence immunoassay, respectively. Multivariable conditional logistic regression was used to calculate odds ratios (ORs) and 95% CIs for associations between hormones and liver cancer among 275 men who subsequently developed liver cancer and 768 comparison men. Results: Higher concentrations of total testosterone (OR per one-unit increase in log2 = 1.77, 95% CI = 1.38-2.29), dihydrotestosterone (OR = 1.76, 95% CI = 1.21-2.57), oestrone (OR = 1.74, 95% CI = 1.08-2.79), total oestradiol (OR = 1.58, 95% CI=1.22-20.05), and sex hormone-binding globulin (OR = 1.63, 95% CI = 1.27-2.11) were associated with increased risk. Higher concentrations of dehydroepiandrosterone (DHEA), however, were associated with a 53% decreased risk (OR = 0.47, 95% CI = 0.33-0.68). Conclusions: Higher concentrations of both androgens (testosterone, dihydrotestosterone) and their aromatised oestrogenic metabolites (oestrone, oestradiol) were observed among men who subsequently developed liver cancer compared with men who did not. As DHEA is an adrenal precursor of both androgens and oestrogens, these results may suggest that a lower capacity to convert DHEA to androgens, and their subsequent conversion to oestrogens, confers a lower risk of liver cancer, whereas a greater capacity to convert DHEA confers a greater risk. Impact and implications: This study does not fully support the current hormone hypothesis as both androgen and oestrogen levels were associated with increased risk of liver cancer among men. The study also found that higher DHEA levels were associated with lower risk, thus suggesting the hypothesis that greater capacity to convert DHEA could be associated with increased liver cancer risk among men.

Updating the Know Your Chances Website to Include Smoking Status as a Risk Factor for Mortality Estimates.

Importance: To make wise decisions about the health risks they face, people need information about the magnitude of the threats as well as the context, such as how risks compare. Such information is often presented by age, sex, and race but rarely accounts for smoking status, a major risk factor for many causes of death. Objective: To update the National Cancer Institute's Know Your Chances website to present mortality estimates for a broad set of causes of death and all causes combined by smoking status in addition to age, sex, and race. Design, Setting, and Participants: In this cohort study, mortality estimates using life table methods were calculated with the National Cancer Institute's DevCan software package, combining data from the US National Vital Statistics System, National Health Interview Survey-Linked Mortality Files, National Institutes of Health-AARP (American Association of Retired Persons), Cancer Prevention Study II, Nurses' Health and Health Professions follow-up studies, and Women's Health Initiative. Data were collected from January 1, 2009, to December 31, 2018, and analyzed from August 27, 2019, to February 28, 2023. Main Outcomes and Measures: Age-conditional probabilities of dying due to various causes and all causes combined, accounting for competing causes of death, for people aged 20 to 75 years over the next 5, 10, or 20 years by sex, race, and smoking status. Results: A total of 954 029 individuals aged 55 years or older (55.8% women) were included in the analysis. Regardless of sex or race, for never-smokers, coronary heart disease represented the highest 10-year chance of death after about 50 years of age, which is higher than for any malignant neoplasm. Among current smokers, the 10-year chance of death due to lung cancer was almost as high as for coronary heart disease in each group. For Black and White female current smokers aged from the mid-40s onward, the 10-year probability of death due to lung cancer was substantially higher than for breast cancer. After 40 years of age, the observed effect of never vs current smoking on the 10-year chance of death due to all causes approximated adding 10 years of age. After 40 years of age when conditioning on smoking status, mortality risk for Black individuals was approximately that of White individuals 5 years older. Conclusions and Relevance: Using life table methods and accounting for competing risks, the revised Know Your Chances website presents age-conditional mortality estimates according to smoking status for a broad set of causes in the context of other conditions and all-cause mortality. The findings of this cohort study suggest that failing to account for smoking status results in inaccurate mortality estimates for many causes-namely, they are too low for smokers and too high for nonsmokers.

Upper age limits for US male human papillomavirus vaccination for oropharyngeal cancer prevention: a microsimulation-based modeling study.

BACKGROUND: Human papillomavirus (HVP)-positive oropharyngeal cancer is the most common HPV-associated cancer in the United States. The age at acquisition of oral HPV infections that cause oropharyngeal cancer (causal infections) is unknown; consequently, the benefit of vaccination of US men aged 27-45 years remains uncertain. METHODS: We developed a microsimulation-based, individual-level, state-transition model of oral HPV16 and HPV16-positive oropharyngeal cancer among heterosexual US men aged 15-84 years, calibrated to population-level data. We estimated the benefit of vaccination of men aged 27-45 years for prevention of oropharyngeal cancer, accounting for direct- and indirect effects (ie, herd effects) of male and female vaccination. RESULTS: In the absence of vaccination, most (70%) causal oral HPV16 infections are acquired by age 26 years, and 29% are acquired between ages 27 and 45 years. Among men aged 15-45 years in 2021 (1976-2006 birth cohorts), status quo vaccination of men through age 26 years is estimated to prevent 95% of 153 450 vaccine-preventable cancers. Assuming 100% vaccination in 2021, extending the upper age limit to 30, 35, 40, or 45 years for men aged 27-45 years (1976-1994 cohorts) is estimated to yield small benefits (3.0%, 4.2%, 5.1%, and 5.6% additional cancers prevented, respectively). Importantly, status quo vaccination of men through age 26 years is predicted to result in notable declines in HPV16-positive oropharyngeal cancer incidence in young men by 2035 (51% and 24% declines at ages 40-44 years and 45-49 years, respectively) and noticeable declines (12%) overall by 2045. CONCLUSION: Most causal oral HPV16 infections in US men are acquired by age 26 years, underscoring limited benefit from vaccination of men aged 27-45 years for prevention of HPV16-positive oropharyngeal cancers.

Geographic Patterns in U.S. Lung Cancer Mortality and Cigarette Smoking.

BACKGROUND: Despite the success of smoking cessation campaigns, lung cancer remains the leading cause of cancer death in the U.S. Variations in smoking behavior and lung cancer mortality are evident by sex and region. METHODS: Applying geospatial methods to lung cancer mortality data from the National Vital Statistics System and county-level estimates of smoking prevalences from the NCI's Small Area Estimates of Cancer-Related Measures, we evaluated patterns in lung cancer mortality rates (2005-2018) in relation to patterns in ever cigarette smoking prevalences (1997-2003). RESULTS: Overall, ever smoking spatial patterns were generally associated with lung cancer mortality rates, which were elevated in the Appalachian region and lower in the West for both sexes. However, we also observed geographic variation in mortality rates that is not explained by smoking. Using Lee's L statistic for assessing bivariate spatial association, we identified counties where the ever smoking prevalence was low and lung cancer rates were high. We observed a significant cluster of counties (n = 25; P values ranging from 0.001 to 0.04) with low ever smoking prevalence and high mortality rates among females around the Mississippi River region south of St. Louis, Missouri and a similar and smaller cluster among males in Western Mississippi (n = 12; P values ranging from 0.002 to 0.03) that has not been previously described. CONCLUSIONS: Our analyses identified U.S. counties where factors other than smoking may be driving lung cancer mortality. IMPACT: These novel findings highlight areas where investigation of environmental and other risk factors for lung cancer is needed.

Testosterone therapy and cancer risks among men in the SEER-Medicare linked database.

BACKGROUND: We examined associations between two forms of testosterone therapy (TT) and risks of seven cancers among men. METHODS: SEER-Medicare combines cancer registry data from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results programme with Medicare claims. Our population-based case-control study included incident cancer cases diagnosed between 1992-2015: prostate (n = 130,713), lung (n = 105,466), colorectal (n = 56,433), bladder (n = 38,873), non-Hodgkin lymphoma (n = 17,854), melanoma (n = 14,241), and oesophageal (n = 9116). We selected 100,000 controls from a 5% random sample of Medicare beneficiaries and used logistic regression to estimate odds ratios (OR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI). RESULTS: TT was associated with lower risk of distant-stage prostate cancer (injection/implantation OR = 0.72, 95% CI: 0.60-0.86; topical OR = 0.50, 95% CI: 0.24-1.03). We also observed inverse associations for distant-stage colorectal cancer (injection/implantation OR = 0.75, 95% CI: 0.62-0.90; topical OR = 0.11, 95% CI: 0.05-0.24). Risks of distant-stage colorectal and prostate cancers decreased with time after initiating TT by injection/implantation. By contrast, TT was positively associated with distant-stage melanoma (injection/implantation OR = 1.70, 95% CI: 1.37-2.11). TT was not associated with bladder cancer, oesophageal cancer, lung cancer or non-Hodgkin lymphoma. CONCLUSION: TT was inversely associated with distant-stage prostate and colorectal cancers but was positively associated with distant-stage melanoma. These observations may suggest an aetiologic role for TT or the presence of residual confounding.

Sex disparities in the incidence of 21 cancer types: Quantification of the contribution of risk factors.

BACKGROUND: Cancer incidence is higher in men than in women at most shared anatomic sites for currently unknown reasons. The authors quantified the extent to which behaviors (smoking and alcohol use), anthropometrics (body mass index and height), lifestyles (physical activity, diet, medications), and medical history collectively explain the male predominance of risk at 21 shared cancer sites. METHODS: Prospective cohort analyses (n = 171,274 male and n = 122,826 female participants; age range, 50-71 years) in the National Institutes of Health-AARP Diet and Health Study (1995-2011). Cancer-specific Cox regression models were used to estimate male-to-female hazard ratios (HRs). The degree to which risk factors explained the observed male-female risk disparity was quantified using the Peters-Belson method. RESULTS: There were 26,693 incident cancers (17,951 in men and 8742 in women). Incidence was significantly lower in men than in women only for thyroid and gallbladder cancers. At most other anatomic sites, the risks were higher in men than in women (adjusted HR range, 1.3-10.8), with the strongest increases for bladder cancer (HR, 3.33; 95% confidence interval [CI], 2.93-3.79), gastric cardia cancer (HR, 3.49; 95% CI, 2.26-5.37), larynx cancer (HR, 3.53; 95% CI, 2.46-5.06), and esophageal adenocarcinoma (HR, 10.80; 95% CI, 7.33-15.90). Risk factors explained a statistically significant (nonzero) proportion of the observed male excess for esophageal adenocarcinoma and cancers of liver, other biliary tract, bladder, skin, colon, rectum, and lung. However, only a modest proportion of the male excess was explained by risk factors (ranging from 50% for lung cancer to 11% for esophageal adenocarcinoma). CONCLUSIONS: Men have a higher risk of cancer than women at most shared anatomic sites. Such male predominance is largely unexplained by risk factors, underscoring a role for sex-related biologic factors.

Sweetened beverage consumption and risk of liver cancer by diabetes status: A pooled analysis.

BACKGROUND: Consumption of sweetened beverages has been linked to several risk factors for liver cancer including diabetes. Studies investigating the role of sweetened beverage consumption and liver cancer, however, are limited. As persons with diabetes are advised against consumption of sugar, the objective of this study was to examine the role of sweetened beverage consumption and liver cancer risk by diabetes status. METHODS: Data from two U.S. cohorts: the NIH-AARP Diet and Health Study, and the Prostate, Lung, Colorectal and Ovarian Cancer Screening Trial were harmonized and pooled. Hazard ratios and 95%CI were estimated using Cox proportional hazard models stratified by median follow-up time. RESULTS: Among persons without diabetes, there were no statistical evidence of associations between liver cancer and consumption of sweetened beverages overall, sugar sweetened beverages (SSB), or artificially sweetened beverages (ASB). Sugar sweetened (SS) soda consumption, however, was associated with liver cancer in the first follow-up interval (HR:1.18. 95%CI: 1.03, 1.35). In contrast, among persons with diabetes, there were significant associations between liver cancer and consumption of sweetened beverages overall (HR: 1.12, 95%CI 1.01, 1.24), ASBs (HR: 1.13, 95% CI: 1.02, 1.25), soda overall (HR: 1.13, 95% CI: 1.00, 1.26) and artificially sweetened (AS) soda (HR: 1.13, 95% CI: 1.01, 1.27) in the first follow-up interval. CONCLUSIONS: Increased soda consumption may be associated with risk of liver cancer. The results suggest that decreasing consumption of SS soda by persons without diabetes, and AS soda by persons with diabetes, could be associated with reduced liver cancer risk.