Systematic Analysis of Mobile Genetic Elements Mediating ß-Lactamase Gene Amplification in Noncarbapenemase-Producing Carbapenem-Resistant Enterobacterales Bloodstream Infections.

Noncarbapenemase-producing carbapenem-resistant Enterobacterales (non-CP-CRE) are increasingly recognized as important contributors to prevalent carbapenem-resistant Enterobacterales (CRE) infections. However, there is limited understanding of mechanisms underlying non-CP-CRE causing invasive disease. Long- and short-read whole-genome sequencing was used to elucidate carbapenem nonsusceptibility determinants in Enterobacterales bloodstream isolates at MD Anderson Cancer Center in Houston, Texas. We investigated carbapenem nonsusceptible Enterobacterales (CNSE) mechanisms (i.e., isolates with carbapenem intermediate resistance phenotypes or greater) through a combination of phylogenetic analysis, antimicrobial resistance gene detection/copy number quantification, porin assessment, and mobile genetic element (MGE) characterization. Most CNSE isolates sequenced were non-CP-CRE (41/79; 51.9%), whereas 25.3% (20/79) were Enterobacterales with intermediate susceptibility to carbapenems (CIE), and 22.8% (18/79) were carbapenemase-producing Enterobacterales (CPE). Statistically significant copy number variants (CNVs) of extended-spectrum ß-lactamase (ESBL) genes (Wilcoxon Test; P-value < 0.001) were present in both non-CP-CR E. coli (median CNV = 2.6×; n = 17) and K. pneumoniae (median CNV = 3.2×, n = 17). All non-CP-CR E. coli and K. pneumoniae had predicted reduced expression of at least one outer membrane porin gene (i.e., ompC/ompF or ompK36/ompK35). Completely resolved CNSE genomes revealed that IS26 and ISEcp1 structures harboring blaCTX-M variants along with other antimicrobial resistance elements were associated with gene amplification, occurring in mostly IncFIB/IncFII plasmid contexts. MGE-mediated ß-lactamase gene amplifications resulted in either tandem arrays, primarily mediated by IS26 translocatable units, or segmental duplication, typically due to ISEcp1 transposition units. Non-CP-CRE strains were the most common cause of CRE bacteremia with carbapenem nonsusceptibility driven by concurrent porin loss and MGE-mediated amplification of blaCTX-M genes. IMPORTANCE Carbapenem-resistant Enterobacterales (CRE) are considered urgent antimicrobial resistance (AMR) threats. The vast majority of CRE research has focused on carbapenemase-producing Enterobacterales (CPE) even though noncarbapenemase-producing CRE (non-CP-CRE) comprise 50% or more of isolates in some surveillance studies. Thus, carbapenem resistance mechanisms in non-CP-CRE remain poorly characterized. To address this problem, we applied a combination of short- and long-read sequencing technologies to a cohort of CRE bacteremia isolates and used these data to unravel complex mobile genetic element structures mediating ß-lactamase gene amplification. By generating complete genomes of 65 carbapenem nonsusceptible Enterobacterales (CNSE) covering a genetically diverse array of isolates, our findings both generate novel insights into how non-CP-CRE overcome carbapenem treatments and provide researchers scaffolds for characterization of their own non-CP-CRE isolates. Improved recognition of mechanisms driving development of non-CP-CRE could assist with design and implementation of future strategies to mitigate the impact of these increasingly recognized AMR pathogens.

The role of the genetic testing industry in patient education of hereditary cancer: An observational study assessing the quality of patient education videos.

OBJECTIVES: Genetic testing (GT) companies have developed patient education videos to supplement or replace pre-test genetic counseling (GC) by certified genetic counselors (CGC). The aim of this study was to assess the quality of these videos compared to the standard of care (SOC). METHODS: Videos from four major GT companies were selected from an internet search identifying pre-test patient education videos. A scoring rubric with 22 questions and 36 total points was devised to assess quality metrics, as described by the National Cancer Institute and National Society of Genetic Counselors. Twenty-two individuals with varying genetics expertise (3 gynecologic oncologists, 3 academic generalists, 4 CGC, a genetics community health worker, 3 cancer care navigators, and 8 medical students) scored each video. Scorers were blinded to others' assessments. RESULTS: Invitae had the highest median score (26/36), followed by Myriad (22/36), Ambry (17.5/36), and Color (15/36). All videos scored highly in explaining DNA basics, cancer development, and hereditary cancer predisposition. All addressed benefits of GT but failed to address potential disadvantages. All scored poorly in explaining medical terms and different GT options. There was variability in addressing patient concerns including cost, privacy, and procedure. CONCLUSIONS: There is significant variation in the content of pre-test patient education videos between GT companies. None of the videos met the SOC for pre-test GC, and none addressed disadvantages of GT, possibly due to a conflict of interest. With improvement in content, accessibility, and use of interactive platforms, these videos may serve as an adjunct to in-person pre-test GC.

Disease burden in offspring is associated with changing paternal demographics in the United States.

BACKGROUND: Average paternal age in the United States has increased substantially in the last few decades. Children of advanced age fathers have a higher incidence of early onset cancer and neuropsychiatric disease. OBJECTIVES: To quantify the number of population adjusted cases of early-onset cancer and neuropsychiatric disease in children attributable to increasing paternal age in the United States. METHODS: Paternal age in the United States from 1972 to 2015 was collected using the National Vital Statistics System (NVSS). Population attributable fraction and paternal age-specific cumulative incidence rates of several cancers and neuropsychiatric disorders were obtained from peer-reviewed publications. Paternal age-specific birth rates were correlated with paternal age-specific cumulative incidence rates to determine the number of attributable cases of disease caused by advancing age of fathers in the United States. RESULTS: The 2015 birth cohort in the United States is estimated to expect 9.2% more cases of acute lymphoblastic leukemia (ALL) diagnosed before 16 years of age (157 additional cases), 13.2% more cases of embryonal tumors in children <5 years of age (209 additional cases), and 13.0% more cases of breast cancer in females younger than 40 years old (424 additional cases) compared to the 1972 birth cohort. We can estimate to expect 10.5% more cases of schizophrenia diagnosed before 21 years of age (2864 additional cases), 6.3% more cases of autism spectrum disorder (ASD) in adolescents <17 years of age (2934 additional cases), 4.5% more cases of anorexia nervosa (AN) in females 8-30 years old (620 additional cases), and 9.2% more cases of bipolar disorder in young patients 16-25 years old (252 additional cases) in the 2015 birth cohort compared to the 1972 birth cohort. CONCLUSION: Increasing paternal age in the United States is associated with a substantial increase in the number of cases of early-onset cancer and neuropsychiatric disease in offspring.

Local recurrence after 'standard' abdominoperineal resection: do we really need ELAPE?

Introduction Low rectal cancers requiring abdominoperineal resection tend to have a worse prognosis than higher tumours, which may be treated by anterior resection. One of the reasons for this may be inadequate local surgery, in particular the narrow waist of the resection specimen of a standard abdominoperineal resection may be associated with a high positive circumferential resection margin. The extralevator abdominoperineal excision (ELAPE) aims to improve the R0 resection rate but carries significant morbidity. We examined our own results of standard abdominoperineal resection to assess the need for a change of policy. Methods We operformed a retrospective analysis of consecutive standard abdominoperineal resections for rectal cancer in a single centre from June 2002 to December 2011. Results A total of 102 patients underwent standard abdominoperineal resection with curative intent; 19 had no preoperative treatment, 42 had short course radiotherapy, 9 had long course radiotherapy and 32 had neoadjuvant chemotherapy followed by long course chemoradiotherapy. In 17/102(16.6%), there was a positive circumferential resection margin. Over a median follow up of 32 months, 20 patients developed recurrence of any type. Local recurrence occurred in five patients (two of which also had distant recurrence), of whom two had a positive circumferential resection margin (P = 0.10). Actuarial two-year local only recurrence was 3.4% and any recurrence was 17.7%. Overall five-year cancer specific survival was 77%. Conclusions In this series we found low rates of local recurrence after standard abdominoperineal resection even with a circumferential margin rate positivity of 16.6%.Performing an ELAPE in selected cases may improve these results further but is not necessarily required for all patients.

Coping strategies, satisfaction with life, and quality of life in Crohn's disease: A gender perspective using structural equation modeling analysis.

OBJECTIVE: To identify coping strategies and socio-demographics impacting satisfaction with life and quality of life in Crohn's disease (CD). METHODS: 402 patients completed the Patient Harvey-Bradshaw Index, Brief COPE Inventory, Satisfaction with Life Scale (SWLS), Short Inflammatory Bowel Disease Questionnaire (SIBDQ). We performed structural equation modeling (SEM) of mediators of quality of life and satisfaction with life. RESULTS: The cohort comprised: men 39.3%, women 60.1%; P-HBI 4.75 and 5.74 (p = 0.01). In inactive CD (P-HBI≤4), both genders had SWLS score 23.8; men had SIBDQ score 57.4, women 52.6 (p = 0.001); women reported more use of emotion-focused, problem-focused and dysfunctional coping than men. In active CD, SWLS and SIBDQ scores were reduced, without gender differences; men and women used coping strategies equally. A SEM model (all patients) had a very good fit (X2(6) = 6.68, p = 0.351, X2/df = 1.114, SRMR = 0.045, RMSEA = 0.023, CFI = 0.965). In direct paths, economic status impacted SWLS (ß = 0.39) and SIBDQ (ß = 0.12), number of children impacted SWLS (ß = 0.10), emotion-focused coping impacted SWLS (ß = 0.11), dysfunctional coping impacted SWLS (ß = -0.25). In an indirect path, economic status impacted dysfunctional coping (ß = -0.26), dysfunctional coping impacted SIBDQ (ß = -0.36). A model split by gender and disease activity showed that in active CD economic status impacted SIBDQ in men (ß = 0.43) more than women (ß = 0.26); emotional coping impacted SWLS in women (ß = 0.36) more than men (ß = 0.14). CONCLUSIONS: Gender differences in coping and the impacts of economic status and emotion-focused coping vary with activity of CD. Psychological treatment in the clinic setting might improve satisfaction with life and quality of life in CD patients.

Merkel Cell Carcinoma: rising incidence in the East of England.

BACKGROUND: Merkel Cell Carcinoma (MCC) is an infrequent but highly aggressive skin cancer. Five-year survival rates are poor, as there are high rates of metastases at primary diagnoses. Recurrences are also common. There is controversy about actual incidence rates which vary considerably between developed countries with majority populations of fair skin types. OBJECTIVES: We report the age-standardized incidence rates of MCC for both males and females from the East of England, and use linear regression analyses to estimate numbers of cases for 2020 and 2025 to aid healthcare planning and allocation of resources. METHODS: All cases of MCC diagnosed histopathologically between 1st January 2004 and 31st December 2013 were extracted from the databases of the Eastern Office, National Cancer Registration Service, Public Health England, and the Pathology department of the Norfolk and Norwich University Hospital, which serves as the tertiary referral centre for the region. Age-standardization incidence rate calculations (ASIs) and linear regression analyses were performed. RESULTS: The ASIs for males and females were 0.70 and 1.08 per 100 000 person-years respectively. The total age-adjusted incidence rate was therefore 1.78 per 100 000 person-years. The ratio of female: male disease was 3:2. The total number of cases for this region over the time period studied was 73. There has been a threefold increase over this period. Estimated cases for this region are 17 in 2020, and 22 in 2025. Estimated UK cases for 2020 are 920, and 1134 in 2025. CONCLUSIONS: MCC is increasing steadily in the East of England, and has risen threefold over the last 10 years and is similar to the highest reported rates from Western Australia. These data are 12-fold higher than previous UK estimates, and suggest that the incidence rate is also rising in other regions of the UK.

Validation of an RNA cell cycle progression score for predicting death from prostate cancer in a conservatively managed needle biopsy cohort.

BACKGROUND: The natural history of prostate cancer is highly variable and difficult to predict accurately. Better markers are needed to guide management and avoid unnecessary treatment. In this study, we validate the prognostic value of a cell cycle progression score (CCP score) independently and in a prespecified linear combination with standard clinical variables, that is, a clinical-cell-cycle-risk (CCR) score. METHODS: Paraffin sections from 761 men with clinically localized prostate cancer diagnosed by needle biopsy and managed conservatively in the United Kingdom, mostly between 2000 and 2003. The primary end point was prostate cancer death. Clinical variables consisted of centrally reviewed Gleason score, baseline PSA level, age, clinical stage, and extent of disease; these were combined into a single predefined risk assessment (CAPRA) score. Full data were available for 585 men who formed a fully independent validation cohort. RESULTS: In univariate analysis, the CCP score hazard ratio was 2.08 (95% CI (1.76, 2.46), P<10(-13)) for one unit change of the score. In multivariate analysis including CAPRA, the CCP score hazard ratio was 1.76 (95% CI (1.44, 2.14), P<10(-6)). The predefined CCR score was highly predictive, hazard ratio 2.17 (95% CI (1.83, 2.57), χ(2)=89.0, P<10(-20)) and captured virtually all available prognostic information. CONCLUSIONS: The CCP score provides significant pretreatment prognostic information that cannot be provided by clinical variables and is useful for determining which patients can be safely managed conservatively, avoiding radical treatment.

Dog bites and maxillofacial surgery: what can we do?

The number of injuries caused by dog bites is increasing in the United Kingdom. We review patients admitted with dog bites to a single maxillofacial department in a district general hospital over a 21-month period. Data include patients' characteristics, and the site and severity of injury. The relationship of the victim to the animal and its breed and classification were added where possible. In total, 65 patients, mean age 22 years (range 1-71, median 14) were included. There were 84 wounds, and their site and severity were recorded according to the Lackmann classification. Twelve different breeds of dog were responsible for the bites. An appreciable proportion of those injured were young children. Educational strategies should aim to reduce the incidence of all dog bites, particularly in young children, as their needs after initial treatment are complex. We propose specific strategies to reduce the number of these injuries.

Stage at diagnosis and early mortality from cancer in England.

BACKGROUND: Stage at diagnosis is a key predictor of overall cancer outcome. For the first time, stage completeness is high enough for robust analysis for the whole of England. METHODS: We analysed data from the National Cancer Registration Service's (NCRS) Cancer Analysis System on persons diagnosed with breast, colorectal, lung, prostate or ovarian cancers in England in 2012. One-year relative survival (followed-up to the end of 2013) was calculated along with adjusted excess rate ratios, for mortality within 1 year. RESULTS: One-year relative survival decreased with increasing stage at diagnosis. For breast, prostate and colorectal cancers survival showed a major reduction for stage 4 cancers, whereas for lung and ovarian cancers there were substantial decreases in relative survival for each level of increase in stage. Excess rate ratios for mortality within 1 year of diagnosis showed that stage and age were the most important cofactors, but they also identified the statistically significant effects of sex, income deprivation and geographic area of residence. CONCLUSIONS: Further reductions in mortality may be most effectively achieved by diagnosing all cancers before they progress to stage 4, but for lung and ovarian cancers there is also a need for a stage shift to earlier stages together with efforts to improve stage-specific survival at all stages.

Estimating the potential survival gains by eliminating socioeconomic and sex inequalities in stage at diagnosis of melanoma.

BACKGROUND: Although inequalities in cancer survival are thought to reflect inequalities in stage at diagnosis, little evidence exists about the size of potential survival gains from eliminating inequalities in stage at diagnosis. METHODS: We used data on patients diagnosed with malignant melanoma in the East of England (2006-2010) to estimate the number of deaths that could be postponed by completely eliminating socioeconomic and sex differences in stage at diagnosis after fitting a flexible parametric excess mortality model. RESULTS: Stage was a strong predictor of survival. There were pronounced socioeconomic and sex inequalities in the proportion of patients diagnosed at stages III-IV (12 and 8% for least deprived men and women and 25 and 18% for most deprived men and women, respectively). For an annual cohort of 1025 incident cases in the East of England, eliminating sex and deprivation differences in stage at diagnosis would postpone approximately 24 deaths to beyond 5 years from diagnosis. Using appropriate weighting, the equivalent estimate for England would be around 215 deaths, representing 11% of all deaths observed within 5 years from diagnosis in this population. CONCLUSIONS: Reducing socioeconomic and sex inequalities in stage at diagnosis would result in substantial reductions in deaths within 5 years of a melanoma diagnosis.

The impact of eliminating age inequalities in stage at diagnosis on breast cancer survival for older women.

BACKGROUND: Older women with breast cancer have poorer relative survival outcomes, but whether achieving earlier stage at diagnosis would translate to substantial reductions in mortality is uncertain. METHODS: We analysed data on East of England women with breast cancer (2006-2010) aged 70+ years. We estimated survival for different stage-deprivation-age group strata using both the observed and a hypothetical stage distribution (assuming that all women aged 75+ years acquired the stage distribution of those aged 70-74 years). We subsequently estimated deaths that could be postponed beyond 5 years from diagnosis if women aged 75+ years had the hypothetical stage distribution. We projected findings to the English population using appropriate age and socioeconomic group weights. RESULTS: For a typically sized annual cohort in the East of England, 27 deaths in women with breast cancer aged 75+ years can be postponed within 5 years from diagnosis if their stage distribution matched that of the women aged 70-74 years (4.8% of all 566 deaths within 5 years post diagnosis in this population). Under assumptions, we estimate that the respective number for England would be 280 deaths (5.0% of all deaths within 5 years post diagnosis in this population). CONCLUSIONS: The findings support ongoing development of targeted campaigns aimed at encouraging prompt presentation in older women.

Changing presentation of prostate cancer in a UK population--10 year trends in prostate cancer risk profiles in the East of England.

BACKGROUND: Prostate cancer incidence is rising in the United Kingdom but there is little data on whether the disease profile is changing. To address this, we interrogated a regional cancer registry for temporal changes in presenting disease characteristics. METHODS: Prostate cancers diagnosed from 2000 to 2010 in the Anglian Cancer Network (n=21,044) were analysed. Risk groups (localised disease) were assigned based on NICE criteria. Age standardised incidence rates (IRs) were compared between 2000-2005 and 2006-2010 and plotted for yearly trends. RESULTS: Over the decade, overall IR increased significantly (P<0.00001), whereas metastasis rates fell (P<0.0007). For localised disease, IR across all risk groups also increased but at different rates (P<0.00001). The most striking change was a three-fold increase in intermediate-risk cancers. Increased IR was evident across all PSA and stage ranges but with no upward PSA or stage shift. In contrast, IR of histological diagnosis of low-grade cancers fell over the decade, whereas intermediate and high-grade diagnosis increased significantly (P<0.00001). CONCLUSION: This study suggests evidence of a significant upward migration in intermediate and high-grade histological diagnosis over the decade. This is most likely to be due to a change in histological reporting of diagnostic prostate biopsies. On the basis of this data, increasing proportions of newly diagnosed cancers will be considered eligible for radical treatment, which will have an impact on health resource planning and provision.

Variation in colorectal cancer treatment and survival: a cohort study covering the East Anglia region.

AIM: National guidelines for colorectal cancer management aim to optimize cancer outcomes irrespective of postcode. However, in order to ensure equal performance of cancer services, variation in outcome must be monitored and intelligently assessed. In this study, detailed regional cancer registry data were used to quantify and explore the reasons for variation in colorectal cancer outcomes at nine hospitals in East Anglia. METHOD: We analysed data on colorectal cancers registered by the Eastern Cancer Registry and Information Centre (ECRIC) between 1999 and 2005. Tumours were grouped by site, in keeping with surgical resection. Multivariable Cox regression models were used to identify the effects of patient, disease and treatment variables on an individual's risk of death. RESULTS: After adjusting for demographic, disease and treatment variables there were significant differences in survival among hospitals in emergency admissions with cancer of the right colon, in elective admissions with cancer of the left, sigmoid or recto-sigmoid colon and in emergency admissions with cancer of the rectum. There were also differences among hospitals in terms of perioperative death, nonsurgical management and numbers of nodes examined. For rectal cancers, rates of anterior resection compared with abdominoperineal excision differed, as well as the use of neoadjuvant radiotherapy. CONCLUSION: Detailed analysis of demographic, disease and treatment factors are required when comparing the survival of individuals with colorectal cancer across hospitals. The results imply that cancer management was not consistent across East Anglia in 1999-2005 but the reasons for this are uncertain. Nevertheless, 5-year age-standardized survival with colon cancer in the Anglia Cancer Network region is currently among the best in the UK.

How much of the deprivation gap in cancer survival can be explained by variation in stage at diagnosis: an example from breast cancer in the East of England.

Socioeconomic differences in cancer patient survival exist in many countries and across cancer sites. In our article, we estimated the number of deaths in women with breast cancer that could be avoided within 5 years from diagnosis if it were possible to eliminate socioeconomic differences in stage at diagnosis. We analysed data on East of England women with breast cancer (2006-2010). We estimated survival for different stage-age-deprivation strata using both the observed and a hypothetical stage distribution (assuming all women acquired the stage distribution of the most affluent women). Data were analysed on 20,738 women with complete stage information (92%). Affluent women were less likely to be diagnosed in advanced stage. Relative survival decreased with increasing level of deprivation. Eliminating differences in stage at diagnosis could be expected to nearly eliminate differences in relative survival for women in deprivation groups 3 and 4, but would only approximately halve the difference in relative survival for women in the most deprived group (5). This means, for a typical cohort of women diagnosed in a calendar year with breast cancer, eliminating deprivation differences in stage at diagnosis would prevent ∼40 deaths in the East of England from occurring within 5 years from diagnosis. Using appropriate weighting we estimated the respective number of avoidable deaths for the whole of England to be ∼450. The findings suggest that policies aimed at reducing inequalities in stage at diagnosis between women with breast cancer are important to reduce inequalities in breast cancer survival.

Basal cell carcinoma epidemiology in the UK: the elephant in the room.

BACKGROUND: UK Cancer registries have difficulties in recording the incidence of basal cell carcinoma (BCC). AIM: To estimate the total numbers of BCCs in the UK requiring surgical treatment. METHODS: The histopathology records of each year from 1999 to 2010 were examined to estimate the total annual numbers of BCCs and of people with BCC in the East Norfolk and Waveney area of the UK. RESULTS: Over this period, the numbers of patients with surgically treated BCCs increased by 81%, and the numbers of BCCs by 70%. The ratio of BCCs recorded by the cancer registry was 2-2.2 times lower than that recorded in the histopathology data. Extrapolating the data to the UK population suggests that in 2010, approximately 200,000 patients had 247,000 BCCs treated surgically (this estimate does not include those treated by other means such as cryotherapy, topical chemotherapy, photodynamic therapy or radiotherapy, without histology). In 2008, 114,000 nonmelanoma skin cancers were registered in England and Wales and 309,000 total cancers (excluding nonmelanoma skin cancers) were registered in the UK. CONCLUSIONS: These data indicate that in the UK, BCC is nearly as common as all other cancers in all other body sites combined.

Socio-demographic inequalities in stage of cancer diagnosis: evidence from patients with female breast, lung, colon, rectal, prostate, renal, bladder, melanoma, ovarian and endometrial cancer.

BACKGROUND: Understanding socio-demographic inequalities in stage at diagnosis can inform priorities for cancer control. PATIENTS AND METHODS: We analysed data on the stage at diagnosis of East of England patients diagnosed with any of 10 common cancers, 2006-2010. Stage information was available on 88 657 of 98 942 tumours (89.6%). RESULTS: Substantial socio-demographic inequalities in advanced stage at diagnosis (i.e. stage III/IV) existed for seven cancers, but their magnitude and direction varied greatly by cancer: advanced stage at diagnosis was more likely for older patients with melanoma but less likely for older patients with lung cancer [odds ratios for 75-79 versus 65-69 1.60 (1.38-1.86) and 0.83 (0.77-0.89), respectively]. Deprived patients were more likely to be diagnosed in advanced stage for melanoma, prostate, endometrial and (female) breast cancer: odds ratios (most versus least deprived quintile) from 2.24 (1.66-3.03) for melanoma to 1.31 (1.15-1.49) for breast cancer. In England, elimination of socio-demographic inequalities in stage at diagnosis could decrease the number of patients with cancer diagnosed in advanced stage by ∼5600 annually. CONCLUSIONS: There are substantial socio-demographic inequalities in stage at diagnosis for most cancers. Earlier detection interventions and policies can be targeted on patients at higher risk of advanced stage diagnosis.

PREDICT Plus: development and validation of a prognostic model for early breast cancer that includes HER2.

BACKGROUND: Predict (www.predict.nhs.uk) is an online, breast cancer prognostication and treatment benefit tool. The aim of this study was to incorporate the prognostic effect of HER2 status in a new version (Predict+), and to compare its performance with the original Predict and Adjuvant!. METHODS: The prognostic effect of HER2 status was based on an analysis of data from 10 179 breast cancer patients from 14 studies in the Breast Cancer Association Consortium. The hazard ratio estimates were incorporated into Predict. The validation study was based on 1653 patients with early-stage invasive breast cancer identified from the British Columbia Breast Cancer Outcomes Unit. Predicted overall survival (OS) and breast cancer-specific survival (BCSS) for Predict+, Predict and Adjuvant! were compared with observed outcomes. RESULTS: All three models performed well for both OS and BCSS. Both Predict models provided better BCSS estimates than Adjuvant!. In the subset of patients with HER2-positive tumours, Predict+ performed substantially better than the other two models for both OS and BCSS. CONCLUSION: Predict+ is the first clinical breast cancer prognostication tool that includes tumour HER2 status. Use of the model might lead to more accurate absolute treatment benefit predictions for individual patients.

Variation in advanced stage at diagnosis of lung and female breast cancer in an English region 2006-2009.

BACKGROUND: Understanding variation in stage at diagnosis can inform interventions to improve the timeliness of diagnosis for patients with different cancers and characteristics. METHODS: We analysed population-based data on 17,836 and 13,286 East of England residents diagnosed with (female) breast and lung cancer during 2006-2009, with stage information on 16,460 (92%) and 10,435 (79%) patients, respectively. Odds ratios (ORs) of advanced stage at diagnosis adjusted for patient and tumour characteristics were derived using logistic regression. RESULTS: We present adjusted ORs of diagnosis in stages III/IV compared with diagnosis in stages I/II. For breast cancer, the frequency of advanced stage at diagnosis increased stepwise among old women (ORs: 1.21, 1.46, 1.68 and 1.78 for women aged 70-74, 75-79, 80-84 and ≥85, respectively, compared with those aged 65-69 , P<0.001). In contrast, for lung cancer advanced stage at diagnosis was less frequent in old patients (ORs: 0.82, 0.74, 0.73 and 0.66, P<0.001). Advanced stage at diagnosis was more frequent in more deprived women with breast cancer (OR: 1.23 for most compared with least deprived, P=0.002), and in men with lung cancer (OR: 1.14, P=0.011). The observed patterns were robust to sensitivity analyses approaches for handling missing stage data under different assumptions. CONCLUSION: Interventions to help improve the timeliness of diagnosis of different cancers should be targeted at specific age groups.

The incidence of basal cell carcinoma in the under-30s in the UK.

BACKGROUND: Basal cell carcinoma (BCC) is the commonest cancer in many countries, but the current incidence in young people from the UK is unknown. AIM: To ascertain a recent incidence of BCC in the under-30 population in the UK. Methods. Cancer registry data from part of the Eastern Region of the UK was analysed for two periods: 1981-1989 and 1998-2006. Case notes were examined for a cohort of the patients from 1998 to 2006. RESULTS: The incidence of BCC increased from 0.73 to 1.79 per 100 000 in those aged < 30 years over the study period. More than half (55%) of BCCs were on the head and neck, and the most common histological subtype was superficial BCC (38%). CONCLUSIONS: The reported incidence of BCC in those aged < 30 years has increased by 145% during this period, corresponding to an average annual increase of 8.53%. This may be partially due to earlier presentation and to increased use of surgical treatments.