Disparities in surgical outcomes for low socioeconomic status patients in Australia.

BACKGROUND: There are disparities in surgical outcomes for patients of low socioeconomic status globally, including in countries with universal healthcare systems. There is limited data on the impact of low socioeconomic status on surgical outcomes in Australia. This study examines surgical outcomes by both self-reported unemployment and neighbourhood level socioeconomic status in Australia. METHODS: A retrospective administrative data review was conducted at a tertiary care centre over a 10-year period (2008-2018) including all adult surgical patients. Multivariable logistic regression adjusting for year, age, sex and Charlson Comorbidity Index was performed. RESULTS: 106 197 patients underwent a surgical procedure in the decade examined. The overall adverse event rates were mortality (1.13%), total postoperative complications (10.9%), failure to rescue (0.75%) and return to theatre (4.31%). Following multivariable testing, unemployed and low socioeconomic patients had a higher risk of postoperative mortality (OR 2.06 (1.50-2.82), OR 1.37 (1.15-1.64)), all complications (OR 1.43 (1.31-1.56), OR 1.21 (1.14-1.28)), failure to rescue (OR 2.03 (1.39-2.95), OR 1.38 (1.11-1.72)) and return to theatre (OR 1.42 (1.27-1.59), OR 1.24 (1.14-1.36)) (P < 0.005 for all). CONCLUSIONS: Despite universal healthcare, there are disparities in surgical adverse events for patients of low socioeconomic status in Australia. Disparities in surgical outcomes can stem from three facets: a patient's access to healthcare (the severity of disease at the time of presentation), variation in perioperative care delivery, and social determinants of health. Further work is required to pinpoint why these disparities are present and to evaluate the impact of strategies that aim to reduce disparities.

Disparities in Advanced Peripheral Arterial Disease Presentation by Socioeconomic Status.

BACKGROUND: Diabetes and peripheral arterial disease (PAD) often synergistically lead to foot ulceration, infection, and gangrene, which may require lower limb amputation. Worldwide there are disparities in the rates of advanced presentation of PAD for vulnerable populations. This study examined rates of advanced presentations of PAD for unemployed patients, those residing in low Index of Economic Resources (IER) areas, and those in rural areas of Australia. METHODS: A retrospective study was conducted at a regional tertiary care centre (2008-2018). To capture advanced presentations of PAD, the proportion of operative patients presenting with complications (gangrene/ulcers), the proportion of surgeries that are amputations, and the rate of emergency to elective surgeries were examined. Multivariable logistic regression adjusting for year, age, sex, Charlson Comorbidity Index, and sociodemographic variables was performed. RESULTS: In the period examined, 1115 patients underwent a surgical procedure for PAD. Forty-nine per cent of patients had diabetes. Following multivariable testing, the rates of those requiring amputations were higher for unemployed (OR 1.99(1.05-3.79), p = 0.036) and rural patients (OR 1.83(1.21-2.76), p = 0.004). The rate of presentation with complications was higher for unemployed (OR 7.2(2.13-24.3), p = 0.001), disadvantaged IER (OR 1.91(1.2-3.04), p = 0.007), and rural patients (OR 1.73(1.13-2.65), p = 0.012). The rate of emergency to elective surgery was higher for unemployed (OR 2.32(1.18-4.54), p = 0.015) and rural patients (OR 1.92(1.29-2.86), p = 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: This study found disparities in metrics capturing delayed presentations of PAD: higher rates of presentations with complications, higher amputation rates, and increased rates of emergency to elective surgery, for patients of low socioeconomic status and those residing in rural areas. This suggests barriers to appropriate, effective, and timely care exists for these patients.

Development and validation of a multivariable prediction model in open abdomen patients for entero-atmospheric fistula.

BACKGROUND: Laparostomy or Open Abdomen (OA) has matured into an effective strategy in the management of abdominal catastrophe. Single prognostic factors have been identified in a previous systematic review regarding entero-atmospheric fistula (EAF). Unfortunately, no prognostic multivariable model for EAF exist. The aim was to develop and validate a multivariable prediction model from a retrospective cohort study involving three hospital's databases. METHODS: Fifty-seven variables were evaluated to develop a multivariable model. Univariate and multivariable logistic regression analyses were performed for on a developmental data set from two hospitals. Receiver operator characteristics analysis with area under the curve (AUC) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) were performed on the developmental data set (internal validation) as well as on an additional validation data set from another hospital (external validation). RESULTS: Five-hundred and forty-eight patients managed with an OA. Two variables remained in the multivariable prediction model for EAF. The AUC for EAF on internal validation were 0.74 (95% CI: 0.58-0.86) and 0.79 (95% CI: 0.67-0.92) on external validation. CONCLUSIONS: A multivariable prediction model for EAF was externally validated and an easy-to-use probability nomogram was constructed using the two predictor variables. LEVEL OF EVIDENCE: III; prognostic.

Emergency to Elective Surgery Ratio as a Disparities Sensitive Surgical Access Metric, A Study of Low Socioeconomic Status in Australia.

BACKGROUND: The emergency to elective surgery ratio is a proposed indicator for global access to surgical care. There is a well-established link between low socioeconomic status and increased morbidity and mortality. This study examined the emergency to elective surgery ratios for low socioeconomic patients utilising both self-reported unemployment and the neighbourhood Index of Economic Resources (IER). METHODS: A retrospective study was conducted at a regional tertiary care centre in Australia, including data over a ten-year period (2008-2018). Multivariable logistic regression adjusting for year, age, sex, Charlson Comorbidity Index, rurality, and if surgeries were due to trauma or injuries, was performed. RESULTS: 84,014 patients underwent a surgical procedure in the period examined; 29.0% underwent emergency surgery, 5.31% were unemployed, and 26.6% lived in neighbourhoods with the lowest IER. Following multivariable testing, the rate of emergency surgery was higher for unemployed patients (OR 1.42 [1.32-1.52], p < 0.001), and for those from the lowest IER (OR 1.13 [1.08-1.19], p < 0.001). For unemployed patients, this disparity increased during the study period (OR 1.32 [2008-2012], OR 1.48 [2013-2018]). When stratified by specialty, most (7/11) had significant disparities for unemployed patients: Cardiac/Cardiothoracic, Otolaryngology, Maxillofacial/Dental, Obstetrics/Gynaecology, Orthopaedics, Plastics, and Vascular surgery. CONCLUSIONS: Unemployed Australians and those residing in the most disadvantaged IER neighbourhoods had higher emergency to elective surgery rates. The disparity in emergency to elective surgery rates for unemployed patients was found in most surgical specialties and increased over the period examined. This suggests a widespread and potentially increasing disparity in access to surgical care for patients of socioeconomic disadvantage, specifically for those who are unemployed.

Achieving High Breast Cancer Survival for Women in Rural and Remote Areas.

BACKGROUND: Significant improvements in breast cancer survival have been made in the past few decades in many developed countries including Australia with a five-year relative survival of 90%. The aim of the present study is to obtain a brief estimate of the relative importance of demographic factors such as rurality, socio-economic standard and ethnicity versus traditional risk factors for women diagnosed with breast cancer in Far North Queensland, Australia. METHODS: This was a retrospective longitudinal study of all women diagnosed with their first episode of breast cancer in 1999-2013 in Far North Queensland, Australia. Cox proportional hazards regression analysis was used to identify factors independently associated with mortality for women with any type of breast cancer (in situ or invasive) and for women with invasive cancer. Life tables were used to assess five and ten-year absolute survival. Standard linear regression and binary logistic regression were used to identify any association between demographic factors and late presentation. RESULTS: Five and ten-year absolute survival was 0.90 and 0.86 respectively. Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander status, remoteness of area of residence, and socioeconomic status were not associated with more advanced disease at presentation or increased risk of breast cancer death. Only traditional risk factors such as increased tumour size, absence of progesterone receptor, high tumour grade and presence of metastasis in axillary lymph nodes were associated with increased risk of breast cancer death. CONCLUSION: The effect of the classical risk factors on breast cancer mortality outweighs the effects of demographic factors. The fact that ethnicity, remoteness and socioeconomic status is not associated with late presentation or breast cancer death suggests that given appropriate resources it may be possible to close the gap of inequalities in breast cancer.

Surgical Services for Breast Cancer Patients in Australia, is There a Gap for Aboriginal and/or Torres Strait Islander Women?

BACKGROUND: Breast cancer is the most commonly diagnosed cancer in Aboriginal and/or Torres Strait Islander women. When compared to other Australians, Aboriginal and/or Torres Strait Islander women have a higher breast cancer mortality rate. This systematic literature review examined disparities in breast cancer surgical access and outcomes for Aboriginal and/or Torres Strait Islander women. METHODS: This systematic literature review, following the PRISMA guidelines, compared measures of breast cancer surgical care for Aboriginal and/or Torres Strait Islander people and other Australians. RESULTS: The 13 included studies were largely state-based retrospective reviews of data collected prior to the year 2012. Eight studies reported more advanced breast cancer presentation among Aboriginal and/or Torres Strait Islander women. Despite the increased distance to a multidisciplinary, specialist team, there were no disparities in seeing a surgeon, or in the time from diagnosis to surgical treatment. Two studies reported disparities in the receipt of surgery and two reported no variations. Three studies reported disparities in the receipt of mastectomy versus breast conserving surgery, whilst four studies reported no variations. No studies examined postoperative surgical outcomes. CONCLUSIONS: Aboriginal and/or Torres Strait Islander women present with more advanced breast cancer. There may be disparities in the receipt of surgery and the type of surgery. However, the metrics tested were not related to optimal care guidelines, and the databases utilised contain limited data on individual factors contributing to surgical care decisions. It is therefore difficult to determine whether the reported differences in the receipt of surgical care reflect disparate or appropriate care.

Acute sore throat and Fusobacterium necrophorum in primary healthcare: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

PURPOSE: The main objective of this review was to describe and quantify the association between Fusobacterium necrophorum (FN) and acute sore throat in primary healthcare (PHC). METHODS: In this systematic review and meta-analysis, we searched Scopus and PubMed for case-control studies reporting the prevalence of FN in patients attending primary care for an uncomplicated acute sore throat as well as in healthy controls. Only studies published in English were considered. Publications were not included if they were case studies, or if they included patients prescribed antibiotics before the throat swab, patients with a concurrent malignant disease, on immunosuppression, having an HIV infection, or patients having another acute infection in addition to a sore throat. Inclusion criteria and methods were specified in advance and published in PROSPERO. The primary outcome was positive etiologic predictive value (P-EPV), quantifying the probability for an association between acute sore throat and findings of FN in the pharynx. For comparison, our secondary outcome was the corresponding P-EPV for group A Streptococcus (GAS). RESULTS: PubMed and Scopus yielded 258 and 232 studies, respectively. Removing duplicates and screening the abstracts resulted in 53 studies subsequently read in full text. For the four studies of medium to high quality included in the meta-analysis, the cumulative P-EPV regarding FN was 64% (95% CI 33% to 83%). GAS, based on data from the same publications and patients, yielded a positive EPV of 93% (95% CI 83% to 99%). CONCLUSIONS: The results indicate that FN may play a role in PHC patients with an acute sore throat, but the association is much weaker compared with GAS.

Factors associated with breast cancer awareness and breast self-examination in Fiji and Kashmir India - a cross-sectional study.

BACKGROUND: In low-income countries breast cancer awareness (BCA) is essential to reduce the proportion of advanced stage presentations of breast cancer. There is a lack of studies using multivariable techniques to explore factors related to BCA in low-income countries. The objective of this study was to identify to what extent women in Fiji and Kashmir, India have BCA and practice breast self-examination (BSE) as well as factors associated with BCA and BSE. METHODS: A survey of women aged ≥18 years was conducted in Fiji and Kashmir, India to assess BCA and rates of BSE. Comparison between Fiji and Kashmir was done using student's t-test for continuous data and chi-square for binary data. Factors associated with BCA and BSE were analysed using a multivariable logistic regression for Fiji and Kashmir separately. RESULTS: Data were collected from 399 and 1982 women in Kashmir and Fiji, respectively. Of 1968 women in Fiji 57% were deemed to have an acceptable BCA compared to only 7.3% of 395 women in Kashmir. Having some education was associated with having BCA with an odds ratio of 4.7 (1.7-13) in Fiji and 10 (1.7-59) in Kashmir. Of 1976 women in Fiji 40% had tertiary education while 40% of 392 women in Kashmir had no education at all. The marital status was similar in both samples (n = 1973 and 395) with 68-69% being married and 21-26% being single. The lack of female doctors or nurses with whom to discuss issues, was perceived as a problem in both countries. CONCLUSIONS: The key finding is an association between having any level of education and BCA. This correlation was much stronger than for a family history of breast cancer and BCA. Hence, general education to illiterate women may reduce the proportion of women in low-income countries presenting with advanced-stage breast cancer.

Effectiveness of fibrin glue in skin graft survival: A systematic review and meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: The objective of this study is to assess the current literature on the effectiveness of fibrin glue on survival of skin grafts. Fibrin glue is a possible alternative to secure skin grafts instead of traditional methods (i.e. sutures or staples). METHODS: Data Sources: MEDLINE, Scopus, Embase, Informit, CINAHL and the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials, no limit on the earliest date of publication. STUDY ELIGIBILITY CRITERIA: Randomised, non-randomised controlled trials and cohort studies. PARTICIPANTS: and Interventions: Participants were patients with skin grafting/skin transplantation. The intervention was fibrin glue in any form (bovine, human pooled plasma or autologous) and comparator any form of affixing skin grafts (e.g. sutures or staples).Study Appraisal and Synthesis Methods: Studies were appraised using the Cochrane risk of bias tool and assessed for clinical heterogeneity. Effect sizes were calculated and illustrated with forest plots. RESULTS: 190 publications were narrowed to 15 relevant publications, of which eight were pooled in meta-analysis. The outcomes examined were: graft survival by percentage; graft survival reported as events; post-operative incidence of haematoma or seroma; pain reported after dressing changes via a visual analogue scale; length of stay in days (Glass's delta 2 was 0.48 95% CI 0.09, 0.97); and surgical time in minutes. Only length of stay showed a difference between groups and it favoured fibrin glue. CONCLUSIONS: While there may be benefits to the use of fibrin glue in skin graft patients, it is difficult to conclude this from the current evidence. Limitations were significant heterogeneity in outcomes measured and exclusion off non-English papers.

Group C beta hemolytic Streptococci as a potential pathogen in patients presenting with an uncomplicated acute sore throat - a systematic literature review and meta-analysis.

Objective: The pathogenicity of beta-hemolytic Streptococcus group C (GCS) in patients attending for an uncomplicated acute sore throat is unknown and it was the objective to clarify this.Design: Systematic literature review with meta-analysis. Setting Medline and Scopus were searched from inception to February 2019, with searches of reference lists, Subjects case-control studies stating prevalence of GCS in patients as well as healthy controls presented for children and adults separately. Studies including patients already treated with antibiotics and studies focused on patients with HIV, malignancy or immunosuppression were not included. Main outcome measures Pooled prevalence of GCS was compared between patients and controls using chi-square and was further explored by calculating the positive etiologic predictive value (P-EPV) showing the post-test probability of a link between a sore throat and the bacterial finding. P-EPV for GCS was compared with that for group A Streptococci (GAS) using figures from the same publications and patients.Results: Eleven studies were included. The prevalence of GCS among patients versus controls was similar in children (3.15 versus 2.87%, p = .44) but for adults higher in patients (11%) than in controls (5.6%) (p < .0001). The P-EPV for finding GCS in children with a sore throat was 9.3% (0.0-41%). The corresponding P-EPV for GCS in adults with a sore throat was 53% (36-67%) while the corresponding P-EPV for GAS in adults was 94% (90-96%).Conclusions: GCS do not seem associated with the uncomplicated acute sore throat in children but there is support for an association in adults being weaker than for GAS. A possible consequence is to ignore GCS in otherwise healthy patients at their first visit for an uncomplicated sore throat. This would enable a stronger focus on the use of modern point of care tests (POCTs) to detect GAS.Key pointsThere is no current consensus on the pathogenicity of group C beta-hemolytic Streptococcus (GCS) in patients attending for an uncomplicated acute sore throat.This systematic literature review concludes it is unlikely that GCS is involved in the uncomplicated sore throat in otherwise healthy children.This meta-analysis found a moderate link between GCS and the uncomplicated sore throat in adults.The link in adults between GCS and the sore throat is much weaker than the corresponding link for group A beta-hemolytic Streptococcus.

Factors influencing breast cancer outcomes in Australia: A systematic review.

PURPOSE: This systematic review evaluates factors influencing breast cancer outcomes for women treated in Australia, facilitating the exploration of disparities in breast cancer outcomes for certain groups of women in Australia. METHOD: A systematic literature search was performed using MEDLINE and Scopus focusing on breast cancer in Australia with outcome measures being breast cancer survival and recurrence with no restrictions on date. Risk of bias was assessed using Cairns Assessment Scale for Observational studies of Risk factors (CASOR). RESULTS: Fifteen quantitative studies were included: two were high quality, 11 were intermediate quality, and two were low quality. Traditional risk factors such as invasive tumour type, larger size, higher grade and stage, lymph node involvement and absence of hormone receptors were found to be associated with breast cancer mortality. Being younger (<40 years old) and older (>70 years old), having more comorbidities, being of lower socioeconomic status, identifying as Aboriginal or Torres Strait Islander, living in more rural areas or having a mastectomy were factors found to be associated with poorer breast cancer outcomes. CONCLUSION: Despite the heterogeneity of the studies, this review identified significant risk factors for breast cancer mortality and recurrence. The use of this data would be most useful in developing evidence-based interventions and in optimising patient care through creation of a prediction model. PROSPERO REGISTRATION: CRD42017072857.

Implementation of the World Health Organization Surgical Safety Checklist Correlates with Reduced Surgical Mortality and Length of Hospital Admission in a High-Income Country.

BACKGROUND: The World Health Organization Surgical Safety Checklist (WHO SSC) has been widely implemented in an effort to decrease surgical adverse events. The effects of the checklist on postoperative outcomes have not previously been examined in Australia, and there is limited evidence on the effects of the checklist in the long term. METHODS: A retrospective review was conducted using administrative databases to examine the effects of the implementation of the checklist on postoperative outcomes. Data from 21,306 surgical procedures, performed over a 5-year time period at a tertiary care centre in Australia where the WHO SSC was introduced in the middle of this period, were analysed using multivariate logistic regression. RESULTS: Postoperative mortality rates decreased from 1.2 to 0.92% [p = 0.038, OR 0.74 (0.56-0.98)], and length of admission decreased from 5.2 to 4.7 days (p = 0.014). The reduction in mortality rates reached significance at the 2-3 years post-implementation period [p = 0.017, OR 0.61 (0.41-0.92)]. The observed decrease in mortality rates was independent of the surgical procedure duration. CONCLUSION: Implementation of the WHO SSC was associated with a statistically significant reduction in mortality and length of admission over a 5-year time period. This is the first study demonstrating a reduction in postoperative mortality after the implementation of the checklist in an Australian setting. In this study, a relatively longer period examined, comparative to previous international studies, may have allowed factors like surgical culture change to take effect.

Selective Cholecystectomy: using an evidence-based prediction model to plan for cholecystectomy.

BACKGROUND: Symptomatic gall stones are treated safely and efficiently with laparoscopic cholecystectomy. Conversion to open cholecystectomy may be associated with adverse outcomes. Accurate prediction of conversion should decrease the incidence of conversion and improve patient care. METHODS: The recent literature on conversion at laparoscopic cholecystectomy is reviewed to identify robust prediction models that are both internally and externally validated. RESULTS: Two prediction models are identified which meet these criteria. CONCLUSIONS: The Cairns Prediction Model using nomograms, is an easily applied tool predicting conversion, which is presently in use. Routine use of this tool should decrease conversion, and improve the process of patient consent.

External validation of the Cairns Prediction Model (CPM) to predict conversion from laparoscopic to open cholecystectomy.

BACKGROUND: Valid and user-friendly prediction models for conversion to open cholecystectomy allow for proper planning prior to surgery. The Cairns Prediction Model (CPM) has been in use clinically in the original study site for the past three years, but has not been tested at other sites. METHODS: A retrospective, single-centred study collected ultrasonic measurements and clinical variables alongside with conversion status from consecutive patients who underwent laparoscopic cholecystectomy from 2013 to 2016 in The Townsville Hospital, North Queensland, Australia. An area under the curve (AUC) was calculated to externally validate of the CPM. RESULTS: Conversion was necessary in 43 (4.2%) out of 1035 patients. External validation showed an area under the curve of 0.87 (95% CI 0.82-0.93, p = 1.1 × 10-14). CONCLUSIONS: In comparison with most previously published models, which have an AUC of approximately 0.80 or less, the CPM has the highest AUC of all published prediction models both for internal and external validation.

Symptoms and diagnostic criteria of acquired Megacolon - a systematic literature review.

BACKGROUND: Acquired Megacolon (AMC) is a condition involving persistent dilatation and lengthening of the colon in the absence of organic disease. Diagnosis depends on subjective radiological, endoscopic or surgical findings in the context of a suggestive clinical presentation. This review sets out to investigate diagnostic criteria of AMC. METHODS: The literature was searched using the databases - PubMed, Medline via OvidSP, ClinicalKey, Informit and the Cochrane Library. Primary studies, published in English, with more than three patients were critically appraised based on study design, methodology and sample size. Exclusion criteria were studies with the following features: post-operative; megarectum-predominant; paediatric; organic megacolon; non-human; and failure to exclude organic causes. RESULTS: A review of 23 articles found constipation, abdominal pain, distension and gas distress were predominant symptoms. All ages and both sexes were affected, however, symptoms varied with age. Changes in anorectal manometry, histology and colonic transit are consistently reported. Studies involved varying patient numbers, demographics and data acquisition methods. CONCLUSIONS: Outcome data investigating the diagnosis of AMC must be interpreted in light of the limitations of the low-level evidence studies published to date. Proposed diagnostic criteria include: (1) the exclusion of organic disease; (2) a radiological sigmoid diameter of ~ 10 cm; (3) and constipation, distension, abdominal pain and/or gas distress. A proportion of patients with AMC may be currently misdiagnosed as having functional gastrointestinal disorders. Our conclusions are inevitably tentative, but will hopefully stimulate further research on this enigmatic condition.

The correlation between diverticulosis and redundant colon.

BACKGROUND: Diverticulosis and redundant colon are colonic conditions for which underlying pathophysiology, management and prevention are poorly understood. Historical papers suggest an inverse relationship between these two conditions. However, no further attempt has been made to validate this relationship. This study set out to assess the correlation between diverticulosis and colonic redundancy. METHODS: Redundant colon, diverticulosis and patient demographics were recorded during colonoscopy. Multivariate binary logistic regression was performed with redundant colon as the dependent variable and age, gender and diverticulosis as independent variables. Nagelkerke R 2 and a receiver operator curve were calculated to assess goodness of fit and internally validate the multivariate model. RESULTS: Redundant colon and diverticulosis were diagnosed in 31 and 113 patients, respectively. The probability of redundant colon was increased by female gender odds ratio (OR) 8.4 (95% CI 2.7-26, p = 0.00020) and increasing age OR 1.7 (95% CI 1.1-2.6, p = 0.017). Paradoxically, diverticulosis strongly reduced the probability of redundant colon with OR of 0.12 (95% CI 0.42-0.32, p = 0.000039). The Nagelkerke R 2 for the multivariate model was 0.29 and the area under the curve at ROC analysis was 0.81 (95% CI 0.73-0.90 p-value 3.1 × 10-8). CONCLUSIONS: This study found an inverse correlation between redundant colon and diverticulosis, supporting the historical suggestion that the two conditions rarely occur concurrently. The underlying principle for this relationship remains to be found. However, it may contribute to the understanding of the aetiology and pathophysiology of these colonic conditions.

Predictors for future activity limitation in women with chronic low back pain consulting primary care: a 2-year prospective longitudinal cohort study.

OBJECTIVES: To assess if body function, activity, participation, health-related quality of life and lifestyle behavioural factors can predict activity limitation in women with chronic low back pain (CLBP) in primary healthcare (PHC) 2 years later. DESIGN: A 2-year prospective longitudinal cohort study within PHC. SETTINGS: PHC in southwestern Sweden. PARTICIPANTS: The cohort comprised 130 women with CLBP attending PHC at baseline 2004-2005 and were reassessed after 2 years. MEASURES: The dependent outcome variable was self-reported activity limitation (Roland Morris disability questionnaire (RMDQ)) at 2-year follow-up. Independent predictors at baseline were age, body mass index, smoking, alcohol consumption, sleep quantity and quality, leisure time physical activity, a questionnaire of clinical manifestation of stress (Stress and Crises Inventory (SCI-93)), pain localisation, pain intensity, fatigue, anxiety, depression, RMDQ, work status, private social support, health-related quality of life and measures of physical performance specified as 6 min walk test (6MWT) and hand grip strength. Relation between baseline predictors and variation in later self-reported activity limitation (RMDQ) was analysed using multivariate linear regression. RESULTS: Ninety-five per cent (n=123/130) were followed up after 2 years. The participants were middle-aged (mean 45 (SD 10) years), mostly educated >9 years (88%; 108/123), mainly living with another adult (76%; 93/122) and born in Sweden (90%; 111/123). Seventy-nine per cent (97/123) were categorised as having work ability at baseline. The final prognostic model including 6MWT, SCI-93 and RMDQ at baseline explained 54% of the variance in self-reported activity limitation (RMDQ) at the 2-year follow-up. CONCLUSIONS: Lower physical performance, more severe clinical stress symptoms and more severe activity limitation predicted activity limitation after 2 years in women with CLBP within PHC. The results can give guidance for interventional trials aiming to improve physical capacity and decrease stress. The impact of the interaction between prognostic factors and interventions on activity limitation needs further investigation.