Assessing performance of pathogenicity predictors using clinically relevant variant datasets.

BACKGROUND: Pathogenicity predictors are integral to genomic variant interpretation but, despite their widespread usage, an independent validation of performance using a clinically relevant dataset has not been undertaken. METHODS: We derive two validation datasets: an 'open' dataset containing variants extracted from publicly available databases, similar to those commonly applied in previous benchmarking exercises, and a 'clinically representative' dataset containing variants identified through research/diagnostic exome and panel sequencing. Using these datasets, we evaluate the performance of three recent meta-predictors, REVEL, GAVIN and ClinPred, and compare their performance against two commonly used in silico tools, SIFT and PolyPhen-2. RESULTS: Although the newer meta-predictors outperform the older tools, the performance of all pathogenicity predictors is substantially lower in the clinically representative dataset. Using our clinically relevant dataset, REVEL performed best with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.82. Using a concordance-based approach based on a consensus of multiple tools reduces the performance due to both discordance between tools and false concordance where tools make common misclassification. Analysis of tool feature usage may give an insight into the tool performance and misclassification. CONCLUSION: Our results support the adoption of meta-predictors over traditional in silico tools, but do not support a consensus-based approach as in current practice.

Using Structural Analysis In Silico to Assess the Impact of Missense Variants in MEN1.

Despite the rapid expansion in recent years of databases reporting either benign or pathogenic genetic variations, the interpretation of novel missense variants remains challenging, particularly for clinical or genetic testing laboratories where functional analysis is often unfeasible. Previous studies have shown that thermodynamic analysis of protein structure in silico can discriminate between groups of benign and pathogenic missense variants. However, although structures exist for many human disease‒associated proteins, such analysis remains largely unexploited in clinical laboratories. Here, we analyzed the predicted effect of 338 known missense variants on the structure of menin, the MEN1 gene product. Results provided strong discrimination between pathogenic and benign variants, with a threshold of >4 kcal/mol for the predicted change in stability, providing a strong indicator of pathogenicity. Subsequent analysis of seven novel missense variants identified during clinical testing of patients with MEN1 showed that all seven were predicted to destabilize menin by >4 kcal/mol. We conclude that structural analysis provides a useful tool in understanding the effect of missense variants in MEN1 and that integration of proteomic with genomic data could potentially contribute to the classification of novel variants in this disease.