Malaria hospitalisation in East Africa: age, phenotype and transmission intensity.

BACKGROUND: Understanding the age patterns of disease is necessary to target interventions to maximise cost-effective impact. New malaria chemoprevention and vaccine initiatives target young children attending routine immunisation services. Here we explore the relationships between age and severity of malaria hospitalisation versus malaria transmission intensity. METHODS: Clinical data from 21 surveillance hospitals in East Africa were reviewed. Malaria admissions aged 1 month to 14 years from discrete administrative areas since 2006 were identified. Each site-time period was matched to a model estimated community-based age-corrected parasite prevalence to provide predictions of prevalence in childhood (PfPR2-10). Admission with all-cause malaria, severe malaria anaemia (SMA), respiratory distress (RD) and cerebral malaria (CM) were analysed as means and predicted probabilities from Bayesian generalised mixed models. RESULTS: 52,684 malaria admissions aged 1 month to 14 years were described at 21 hospitals from 49 site-time locations where PfPR2-10 varied from < 1 to 48.7%. Twelve site-time periods were described as low transmission (PfPR2-10 < 5%), five low-moderate transmission (PfPR2-10 5-9%), 20 moderate transmission (PfPR2-10 10-29%) and 12 high transmission (PfPR2-10 ≥ 30%). The majority of malaria admissions were below 5 years of age (69-85%) and rare among children aged 10-14 years (0.7-5.4%) across all transmission settings. The mean age of all-cause malaria hospitalisation was 49.5 months (95% CI 45.1, 55.4) under low transmission compared with 34.1 months (95% CI 30.4, 38.3) at high transmission, with similar trends for each severe malaria phenotype. CM presented among older children at a mean of 48.7 months compared with 39.0 months and 33.7 months for SMA and RD, respectively. In moderate and high transmission settings, 34% and 42% of the children were aged between 2 and 23 months and so within the age range targeted by chemoprevention or vaccines. CONCLUSIONS: Targeting chemoprevention or vaccination programmes to areas where community-based parasite prevalence is ≥10% is likely to match the age ranges covered by interventions (e.g. intermittent presumptive treatment in infancy to children aged 2-23 months and current vaccine age eligibility and duration of efficacy) and the age ranges of highest disease burden.

Reducing HIV infection in people who inject drugs is impossible without targeting recently-infected subjects.

OBJECTIVE: Although our understanding of viral transmission among people who inject drugs (PWID) has improved, we still know little about when and how many times each injector transmits HIV throughout the duration of infection. We describe HIV dynamics in PWID to evaluate which preventive strategies can be efficient. DESIGN: Due to the notably scarce interventions, HIV-1 spread explosively in Russia and Ukraine in 1990s. By studying this epidemic between 1995 and 2005, we characterized naturally occurring transmission dynamics of HIV among PWID. METHOD: We combined publicly available HIV pol and env sequences with prevalence estimates from Russia and Ukraine under an evolutionary epidemiology framework to characterize HIV transmissibility between PWID. We then constructed compartmental models to simulate HIV spread among PWID. RESULTS: In the absence of interventions, each injector transmits on average to 10 others. Half of the transmissions take place within 1 month after primary infection, suggesting that the epidemic will expand even after blocking all the post-first month transmissions. Primary prevention can realistically target the first month of infection, and we show that it is very efficient to control the spread of HIV-1 in PWID. Treating acutely infected on top of primary prevention is notably effective. CONCLUSION: As a large proportion of transmissions among PWID occur within 1 month after infection, reducing and delaying transmissions through scale-up of harm reduction programmes should always form the backbone of HIV control strategies in PWID. Growing PWID populations in the developing world, where primary prevention is scarce, constitutes a public health time bomb.

Modelling challenges in context: lessons from malaria, HIV, and tuberculosis.

Malaria, HIV, and tuberculosis (TB) collectively account for several million deaths each year, with all three ranking among the top ten killers in low-income countries. Despite being caused by very different organisms, malaria, HIV, and TB present a suite of challenges for mathematical modellers that are particularly pronounced in these infections, but represent general problems in infectious disease modelling, and highlight many of the challenges described throughout this issue. Here, we describe some of the unifying challenges that arise in modelling malaria, HIV, and TB, including variation in dynamics within the host, diversity in the pathogen, and heterogeneity in human contact networks and behaviour. Through the lens of these three pathogens, we provide specific examples of the other challenges in this issue and discuss their implications for informing public health efforts.

Epistasis and the sensitivity of phenotypic screens for beta thalassaemia.

Genetic disorders of haemoglobin, particularly the sickle cell diseases and the alpha and beta thalassaemias, are the commonest inherited disorders worldwide. The majority of affected births occur in low-income and lower-middle income countries. Screening programmes are a vital tool to counter these haemoglobinopathies by: (i) identifying individual carriers and allowing them to make informed reproductive choices, and (ii) generating population level gene-frequency estimates, to help ensure the optimal allocation of public health resources. For both of these functions it is vital that the screen performed is suitably sensitive. One popular first-stage screening option to detect carriers of beta thalassaemia in low-income countries is the One Tube Osmotic Fragility Test (OTOFT). Here we introduce a population genetic framework within which to quantify the likely sensitivity and specificity of the OTOFT in different epidemiological contexts. We demonstrate that interactions between the carrier states for beta thalassaemia and alpha thalassaemia, glucose-6-phosphate dehydrogenase deficiency and Southeast Asian Ovalocytosis have the potential to reduce the sensitivity of OTOFTs for beta thalassaemia heterozygosity to below 70%. Our results therefore caution against the widespread application of OTOFTs in regions where these erythrocyte variants co-occur.

Contrasting within- and between-host immune selection shapes Neisseria Opa repertoires.

Pathogen evolution is influenced strongly by the host immune response. Previous studies of the effects of herd immunity on the population structure of directly transmitted, short-lived pathogens have primarily focused on the impact of competition for hosts. In contrast, for long-lived infections like HIV, theoretical work has focused on the mechanisms promoting antigenic variation within the host. In reality, successful transmission requires that pathogens balance both within- and between-host immune selection. The Opa adhesins in the bacterial Neisseria genus provide a unique system to study the evolution of the same antigens across two major pathogens: while N. meningitidis is an airborne, respiratory pathogen colonising the nasopharynx relatively transiently, N. gonorrhoeae can cause sexually transmitted, long-lived infections. We use a simple mathematical model and genomic data to show that trade-offs between immune selection pressures within- and between-hosts can explain the contrasting Opa repertoires observed in meningococci and gonococci.

Larger mammalian body size leads to lower retroviral activity.

Retroviruses have been infecting mammals for at least 100 million years, leaving descendants in host genomes known as endogenous retroviruses (ERVs). The abundance of ERVs is partly determined by their mode of replication, but it has also been suggested that host life history traits could enhance or suppress their activity. We show that larger bodied species have lower levels of ERV activity by reconstructing the rate of ERV integration across 38 mammalian species. Body size explains 37% of the variance in ERV integration rate over the last 10 million years, controlling for the effect of confounding due to other life history traits. Furthermore, 68% of the variance in the mean age of ERVs per genome can also be explained by body size. These results indicate that body size limits the number of recently replicating ERVs due to their detrimental effects on their host. To comprehend the possible mechanistic links between body size and ERV integration we built a mathematical model, which shows that ERV abundance is favored by lower body size and higher horizontal transmission rates. We argue that because retroviral integration is tumorigenic, the negative correlation between body size and ERV numbers results from the necessity to reduce the risk of cancer, under the assumption that this risk scales positively with body size. Our model also fits the empirical observation that the lifetime risk of cancer is relatively invariant among mammals regardless of their body size, known as Peto's paradox, and indicates that larger bodied mammals may have evolved mechanisms to limit ERV activity.