Pairwise association of key lifestyle factors and risk of solid cancers - A prospective pooled multi-cohort register study.

Smoking, alcohol consumption, obesity, and physical inactivity are key lifestyle risk factors for cancer. Previously these have been mostly examined singly or combined as an index, assuming independent and equivalent effects to cancer risk. The aim of our study was to systematically examine the joint pairwise and interactive effects of these lifestyle factors on the risk of a first solid primary cancer in a multi-cohort prospective setting. We used pooled data from seven Finnish health survey studies during 1972-2015, with 197,551 participants diagnosed with 16,373 solid malignant primary tumors during follow-up. Incidence of any cancer was analyzed separately without and with lung cancers using Poisson regression with main and interaction effects of key lifestyle factors. When excluding lung cancer, the highest risk of any cancer in men was observed for smokers with a BMI of ≥25 kg/m2 (HR 1.36, 95 % CI 1.25-1.48) and in women for smokers consuming alcohol (HR 1.22, 1.14-1.30). No statistically significant interactions between any studied risk factor pairs were observed. When including lung cancer, the highest HRs among men were observed for smokers who consume alcohol (HR 1.72, 1.57-1.89) and among women for smokers who were physically inactive (HR 1.38, 1.27-1.49). Smoking combined with other lifestyle factors at any exposure level resulted in highest pairwise risks, both in men and women. These results highlight the importance of smoking prevention, but also the importance of preventing obesity and reducing alcohol consumption.

Every tenth malignant solid tumor attributed to overweight and alcohol consumption: A population-based cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Recent studies have shown that some four in ten cancers are attributable to a few key risk factors. The aim of this study was to estimate cohort-based population attributable fractions (PAFs) in Finland for potentially modifiable cancer risk factors. METHODS: Data from eight health studies including 253,953 subjects with 29,802 incident malignant solid tumors were analysed using Bayesian multivariate regression model with multiplicative risk factor effects. We estimated the effects of smoking, excess body weight, alcohol consumption, physical activity, parity and education on cancer incidence and related PAFs by cancer site, accounting for competing mortality. RESULTS: PAF for all cancer sites and exposures combined was 34% (95% credible interval 29%-39%) in men and 24% (19%-28%) in women. In men, 23% (21%-27%) and in women 8% (6%-9%) of all cancers were attributed to smoking. PAF related to excess body weight was 4% (2%-6%) in men and 5% (2%-7%) in women, to alcohol 7% (3%-10%) in men and 4% (0%-7%) in women, and to excess body weight and alcohol combined 10% (6%-15%) in men and 9% (4%-13%) in women. CONCLUSION: Smoking was the most important factor contributing to cancer burden in Finnish men and women over the last 40 years. The contribution of excess body weight and alcohol consumption together outweighed the role of smoking in women. As the prevalence of overweight is expected to increase, more efficient public health measures supporting adherence to healthy weight are essential to reduce cancer burden.

A Nationally Representative Study of the Hardening Hypothesis Among Educational Groups Over Four Decades.

INTRODUCTION: As smoking prevalence has decreased, there has been debate about "hardening" (smokers are more resistant to established tobacco control measures) or "softening" (smokers are more responsive to interventions) of the remaining smoking population. Despite growing evidence to reject the "hardening" hypothesis, there is lack of long-term population-based studies to test this hypothesis by educational level. AIMS AND METHODS: Repeated cross-sectional population-based surveys during 1978-2014 and in 2018 were utilized. The target population consisted of ~5000 25-64-year-old Finns annually. The data included 109 257 respondents of which 53 351 ever-smoking individuals were included in the analyses. Response rates varied between 84% and 43%. Five hardening indicators considering smoking frequency, intensity and smoking cessation were used as the dependent variables. The main independent variable was study year (time). Statistical analyses were based on regression models using restricted cubic splines by educational level. RESULTS: Contrary to the hardening hypothesis, hardening indicators showed softening over time among all educational groups. However, educational groups differed from each other. Compared with the highly educated, the quit ratio was lower, number of cigarettes per day (CPD) was higher, the proportions of daily smokers among current smokers and heavy smokers among daily smokers were higher among the less educated. CONCLUSIONS: In accordance with growing evidence, also the Finnish smoking population has "softened" over time. Although the change has been predominantly in the same direction for all educational groups, the rate of change has been stronger among the highly educated, highlighting the continued burden of smoking among the less educated. IMPLICATIONS: Even though "softening" of smoking has occurred, lighter smoking also poses health risks. Therefore, tobacco control policies and cessation services should be developed and targeted to a greater extent also for people who smoke less than daily and for those who smoke fewer CPD. Furthermore, interventions should focus on special requirements of the lower educational groups to promote health equity.

Mortality of asthma, COPD, and asthma-COPD overlap during an 18-year follow up.

BACKGROUND: We studied asthma, COPD, and asthma-COPD overlap (ACO) to predict mortality in a cohort of Finnish adults with an 18-year follow up. METHODS: A national health examination survey representing Finnish adults aged ≥30 years was performed in 2000-2001. The study cohort included 5922 participants (73.8% of the sample) with all relevant data, including a comprehensive clinical examination and spirometry. These participants were followed continuously from baseline until end of 2018 for total, cardiovascular, cancer, and respiratory mortality through a record linkage. Asthma, COPD, and ACO were defined based on the survey data, including spirometry and register data. There were three separate groups of obstructive subjects (one definition excluding the others). RESULTS: Asthma and COPD were significantly associated with higher total mortality in Cox's model adjusted for sex, age, smoking, education level, BMI, leisure time physical activity, cardiovascular disease, diabetes, and hypertension. Hazard ratios (HR) (95% confidence interval [CI]) for asthma, COPD, and ACO were 1.29 (1.05-1.58), 1.50 (1.20-1.88), and 1.26 (0.97-1.65), respectively. Additionally, asthma (HR 1.47, 95% CI 1.09-1.97) and COPD (HR 1.53, 95% CI 1.08-2.16) were associated with cardiovascular mortality. Although ACO did not predict mortality in the whole cohort, there was a significant association with mortality risk among those with hs-CRP 1-2.99 mg/l. CONCLUSIONS: Asthma or COPD predicts higher total mortality and premature death from cardiovascular diseases.

Probable Sarcopenia, Obesity, and Risk of All-Cause Mortality: A Pooled Analysis of 4,612 Participants.

INTRODUCTION: Conflicting evidence exists concerning whether having sarcopenic obesity has additive mortality risk over having only sarcopenia or obesity. We examined the independent and combined associations of obesity and probable sarcopenia with all-cause mortality. METHODS: The pooled analysis included three large, harmonized datasets (Health 2000 Survey; Health, Aging and Body Composition Study; Longitudinal Aging Study Amsterdam) with mortality follow-up data on individuals aged 70 years and over at baseline (n = 4,612). Obesity indicators included body mass index and waist circumference, and probable sarcopenia was defined based on grip strength. The mixed effects Cox model was used for statistical analyses, adjusting for age, sex, marital status, education, race, physical activity, alcohol consumption, smoking, and baseline diseases. RESULTS: Risk of death increased for those having probable sarcopenia only (hazard ratio [HR]: 1.61, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.39-1.85) or probable sarcopenia with obesity (HR: 1.36, 95% CI: 1.13-1.64) but not for the obese-only group (HR: 0.92, 95% CI: 0.85-1.01), when compared to non-obese non-sarcopenic individuals. The results were similar regardless of adjustments for covariates or different obesity criteria applied. CONCLUSION: Probable sarcopenia, whether combined with obesity or not, is associated with increased mortality. Obesity did not increase mortality among older adults. Maintaining muscle strength and identifying older adults at risk of sarcopenia is important for the prevention of premature mortality.

Development of non-communicable disease risk factors in Finland: projections up to 2040.

BACKGROUND: Non-communicable diseases are a major cause of mortality and morbidity worldwide. They share the same behavioural risk factors (smoking, sedentary behaviour, alcohol consumption and an unhealthy diet), all of which are modifiable risk factors, and biological consequences (hypertension, elevated total cholesterol, obesity and diabetes). METHODS: Using data from a series of cross-sectional health examination surveys conducted among the adult population in Finland from 1997 to 2017, a projection of risk factor development (smoking, leisure time sedentary behaviour, hypertension, elevated total cholesterol, overweight and obesity, and diabetes) up to the year 2040 was made. The projections were estimated using a multiple imputation method. RESULTS: Smoking prevalence is estimated to continue to decline up to 2040, similar to hypertension and elevated total cholesterol. By contrast, obesity and diabetes will develop unfavourably, with an increase in prevalence. The increase in obesity is mainly due to polarisation - that is, normal-weight people remain of a normal weight, but overweight people tend to gain more weight and become obese. The observed and estimated changes for leisure time sedentary lifestyle were not statistically significant. CONCLUSIONS: Projections of risk factors for non-communicable diseases are needed to guide public health policies and programmes, decision-making and the allocation of health care resources for prevention and care. In Finland, favourable developments have been seen in many of the risk factors, but obesity and diabetes show unfavourable development. There is a need to continue regular, systematic monitoring of the development of risk factors through health examination surveys and to set national goals and programmes to tackle the existing problems.

Circulating cell-free DNA in health and disease - the relationship to health behaviours, ageing phenotypes and metabolomics.

Circulating cell-free DNA (cf-DNA) has emerged as a promising biomarker of ageing, tissue damage and cellular stress. However, less is known about health behaviours, ageing phenotypes and metabolic processes that lead to elevated cf-DNA levels. We sought to analyse the relationship of circulating cf-DNA level to age, sex, smoking, physical activity, vegetable consumption, ageing phenotypes (physical functioning, the number of diseases, frailty) and an extensive panel of biomarkers including blood and urine metabolites and inflammatory markers in three human cohorts (N = 5385; 17-82 years). The relationships were assessed using correlation statistics, and linear and penalised regressions (the Lasso), also stratified by sex.cf-DNA levels were significantly higher in men than in women, and especially in middle-aged men and women who smoke, and in older more frail individuals. Correlation statistics of biomarker data showed that cf-DNA level was higher with elevated inflammation (C-reactive protein, interleukin-6), and higher levels of homocysteine, and proportion of red blood cells and lower levels of ascorbic acid. Inflammation (C-reactive protein, glycoprotein acetylation), amino acids (isoleucine, leucine, tyrosine), and ketogenesis (3-hydroxybutyrate) were included in the cf-DNA level-related biomarker profiles in at least two of the cohorts.In conclusion, circulating cf-DNA level is different by sex, and related to health behaviour, health decline and metabolic processes common in health and disease. These results can inform future studies where epidemiological and biological pathways of cf-DNA are to be analysed in details, and for studies evaluating cf-DNA as a potential clinical marker.

Projections for obesity, smoking and hypertension based on multiple imputation.

AIMS: Information on the future development of prevalences of risk factors and health indicators is needed to prepare for the forthcoming burden of disease in the population and to allocate resources properly for prevention. We aim to present how multiple imputation can be used flexibly to project future prevalences. METHODS: The proposed approach uses data on repeated cross-sectional surveys from different years. We create future samples with age and sex distributions corresponding to the official national population forecasts. Then, the risk factors are simulated using multiple imputation by chained equations. Finally, the imputations are pooled to obtain the prevalences of interest. Covariates, such as sociodemographic variables as well as their possible interactions and non-linear terms, can be included in the modelling. The future development of these covariates is also projected simultaneously. We apply the procedure to data from five Finnish health examination surveys conducted between 1997 and 2017, and project the prevalences of obesity, smoking and hypertension to 2020 and 2025. RESULTS: The prevalence of obesity is projected to increase to 24% for both men and women in 2025. The prevalences of hypertension and smoking are expected to continue decreasing, and the differences between men and women are projected to remain so that men will have higher prevalences. CONCLUSIONS: Simulation of future observations by multiple imputation can be used as a flexible yet relatively easy-to-use projection method.

Temporal changes in health-related lifestyle during the COVID-19 epidemic in Finland - a series of cross-sectional surveys.

BACKGROUND: Public health recommendations and governmental restrictions during the COVID-19 epidemic have affect everyday life. This study aimed to examine temporal changes in health-related lifestyle and the accumulation of positive and negative changes in the key lifestyle factors (vegetable consumption, leisure-time physical activity, sleeping, alcohol consumption, smoking) in the same individuals among Finnish adults during the epidemic. METHODS: This study was based on a series of cross-sectional surveys conducted between April 2020 and June 2021 to investigate antibody levels for the new coronavirus in the population. In each survey, a random sample of adults (18 to 69 years) from five university hospital regions were invited. A total of 5655 (response rate 32%) responded to the questionnaire including questions on lifestyle changes during epidemic. RESULTS: On average one-sixth of respondents (17%) reported at least two negative changes in the key lifestyle factors during the study period. An increase in snacking and sleep problems and decrease in leisure-time physical activity and active commuting to work were the most common of individual negative changes. The proportion of negative changes in physical activity increased as the epidemic drags on. In contrast, on average every seventh of the respondents (14%) reported at least two positive lifestyle changes in the key lifestyle factors. The most common individual positive changes were increased consumption of fruit, berries and vegetables and decreased consumption of alcohol. More negative changes were reported on average, when both negative and positive changes in the key lifestyle factors were summed. The most negative changes were reported in the late 2020. CONCLUSION: The results of the present study suggest that the lifestyle changes during the COVID-19 epidemic have been diverse being on average more commonly unfavorable than favorable for health. The deteriorated epidemic situation in the late 2020 and, on the other hand, prolonged epidemic predisposed to negative lifestyle changes. Further studies are important to examine whether these changes are maintained over time and to identify the factors that contribute to changes and their accumulation in the same individuals. Health promotion actions are needed to prevent the long-term effects of the epidemic on health and welfare.

Pairwise association of key lifestyle factors and risk of colorectal cancer: a prospective pooled multicohort study.

BACKGROUND: Several lifestyle factors are associated with an increased risk of colorectal cancer (CRC). Although lifestyle factors co-occur, in most previous studies these factors have been studied focusing upon a single risk factor or assuming independent effects between risk factors. AIM: To examine the pairwise effects and interactions of smoking, alcohol consumption, physical inactivity, and body mass index (BMI) with risk of subsequent colorectal cancer (CRC). METHODS AND RESULTS: We used METCA cohort data (pooled data from seven population-based Finnish health behavior survey studies during years 1972-2015) consisting of 171 063 women and men. Participants' smoking, alcohol consumption, physical inactivity and BMI measures were gathered, and participants were categorized into those exposed and those not exposed. The incidence of CRC was modeled by Poisson regression with main and interaction effects of key lifestyle factors. The cohort members were followed-up through register linkage to the Finnish Cancer Registry for first primary CRC case until the end of 2015. Follow-up time was 1715, 690 person years. The highest pairwise CRC risk was among male smokers who had overweight (BMI ≥ 25 kg/m2 ) (HR 1.75, 95% CI 1.36-2.26) and women who had overweight and consumed alcohol (HR 1.45, 95% CI 1.14-1.85). Overall, among men the association of lifestyle factors and CRC risk was stronger than among women. In men, both having overweight and being a smoker combined with any other adverse lifestyle factor increased CRC risk. Among women, elevated CRC risks were observed for those who were physically inactive and who consumed alcohol or had overweight. No statistically significant interactions were detected between pairs of lifestyle factors. CONCLUSIONS: This study strengthens the evidence of overweight, smoking, and alcohol consumption as CRC risk factors. Substantial protective benefits in CRC risk can be achieved by preventing smoking, maintaining BMI to <25 kg/m2 and not consuming alcohol.

Association between overall diet quality and postmenopausal breast cancer risk in five Finnish cohort studies.

There is limited evidence for any dietary factor, except alcohol, in breast cancer (BC) risk. Therefore, studies on a whole diet, using diet quality indices, can broaden our insight. We examined associations of the Nordic Diet (mNDI), Mediterranean diet (mMEDI) and Alternative Healthy Eating Index (mAHEI) with postmenopausal BC risk. Five Finnish cohorts were combined including 6374 postmenopausal women with dietary information. In all, 8-9 dietary components were aggregated in each index, higher total score indicating higher adherence to a healthy diet. Cox proportional hazards regression was used to estimate the combined hazard ratio (HR) and 95% confidence interval (CI) for BC risk. During an average 10-year follow-up period, 274 incident postmenopausal BC cases were diagnosed. In multivariable models, the HR for highest vs. lowest quintile of index was 0.67 (95 %CI 0.48-1.01) for mNDI, 0.88 (0.59-1.30) for mMEDI and 0.89 (0.60-1.32) for mAHEI. In this combined dataset, a borderline preventive finding of high adherence to mNDI on postmenopausal BC risk was found. Of the indices, mNDI was more based on the local food culture than the others. Although a healthy diet has beneficially been related to several chronic diseases, the link with the etiology of postmenopausal BC does not seem to be that obvious.

Incidence trends and risk factors of lung cancer in never smokers: Pooled analyses of seven cohorts.

The trends in incidence of lung cancer in never smokers are unclear as well as the significance of risk factors. We studied time trends in the incidence and risk factors of lung cancer in never smokers in Finland in a large, pooled cohort. We pooled data from seven Finnish health cohorts from the period between 1972 and 2015 with 106 193 never smokers. The harmonised risk factors included education, alcohol consumption, physical activity, height and BMI. We retrieved incident lung cancers from the nation-wide Finnish Cancer Registry. We estimated average annual percent change (AAPC) and the effects of risk factors on cause-specific hazard ratios (HRs) of lung cancer using Poisson regression. We detected 47 lung cancers in never smoking men (n = 31 859) and 155 in never smoking women (n = 74 334). The AAPC of lung cancer incidence was -3.30% (95% confidence interval [CI]: -5.68% to -0.88%, P = .009) in never smoking men and 0.00% (95% CI: -1.57% to 1.60%, P = .996) in never smoking women. Of the five studied risk factors only greater height in women had a statistically significant increased risk of lung cancer (multivariate HR = 1.84, 95%CI: 1.08 to 3.12). It is plausible that tobacco control measures focused on working places have reduced passive smoking among men more than among women, which could explain the declining trend in lung cancer incidence in never smoker men but not in never smoker women. As tobacco control measures have not been targeted to domestic environments, it is likely that women's exposure to passive smoking has continued longer.

Association between educational level and smoking cessation in an 11-year follow-up study of a national health survey.

Aims: There is a lack of longitudinal, population-based studies on the association between education and smoking cessation. A more thorough examination of this association is needed to address inequalities in smoking. Methods: The longitudinal Health 2000 Survey and Health 2011 Survey, representing the Finnish population aged ⩾30 years, were analysed. Of the 1352 baseline daily smokers, 945 (70%) provided a smoking status at the follow-up. The analytic sample size was 884 (excluding the follow-up occasional smokers). Self-reported questionnaire data and measurements (e.g. plasma cotinine) from the baseline were utilised. The outcome variable was smoking cessation at the follow-up, and the main explanatory variable was education. Logistic regression was the main method for statistical analyses. All of the analyses accounted for the sampling design. Results: At the follow-up, 28% of the baseline daily smokers had quit smoking. An adjusted regression model showed that highly educated respondents had a higher likelihood of quitting smoking compared with those with basic education. Controlling for demographic and health-related variables had a modest effect on this association. Higher scores for plasma cotinine, symptoms of depression and heavy alcohol use were associated with a lower likelihood of quitting smoking. The association between education and smoking cessation was weaker for women than it was for men. Conclusions: High education is associated with smoking cessation among the general adult population, especially among men. A higher plasma cotinine level is strongly associated with continued smoking among both sexes. Background variables only modestly affected the association between education and smoking cessation.

Joint effects of alcohol use, smoking and body mass index as an explanation for the alcohol harm paradox: causal mediation analysis of eight cohort studies.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Lower socio-economic status (SES) is associated with higher alcohol-related harm despite lower levels of alcohol use. Differential vulnerability due to joint effects of behavioural risk factors is one potential explanation for this 'alcohol harm paradox'. We analysed to what extent socio-economic inequalities in alcohol-mortality are mediated by alcohol, smoking and body mass index (BMI), and their joint effects with each other and with SES. DESIGN: Cohort study of eight health examination surveys (1978-2007) linked to mortality data. SETTING: Finland. PARTICIPANTS: A total of 53 632 Finnish residents aged 25+ years. MEASUREMENTS: The primary outcome was alcohol-attributable mortality. We used income as an indicator of SES. We assessed the joint effects between income and mediators (alcohol use, smoking and BMI) and between the mediators, adjusting for socio-demographic indicators. We used causal mediation analysis to calculate the total, direct, indirect and mediated interactive effects using Aalen's additive hazards models. FINDINGS: During 1 085 839 person-years of follow-up, we identified 865 alcohol-attributable deaths. We found joint effects for income and alcohol use and income and smoking, resulting in 46.8 and 11.4 extra deaths due to the interaction per 10 000 person-years. No interactions were observed for income and BMI or between alcohol and other mediators. The lowest compared with the highest income quintile was associated with 5.5 additional alcohol deaths per 10 000 person-years (95% confidence interval = 3.7, 7.3) after adjusting for confounders. The proportion mediated by alcohol use was negative (-69.3%), consistent with the alcohol harm paradox. The proportion mediated by smoking and BMI and their additive interactions with income explained 18.1% of the total effect of income on alcohol-attributable mortality. CONCLUSIONS: People of lower socio-economic status appear to be more vulnerable to the effects of alcohol use and smoking on alcohol-attributable mortality. Behavioural risk factors and their joint effects with income may explain part of the alcohol harm paradox.

Inequalities by education and marital status in the co-occurrence of cardiovascular risk factors in Finland persisted between 1997-2017.

Understanding on sociodemographic variation of the co-occurrence of cardiovascular disease risk factors is crucial for planning future prevention strategies. We aimed at examining (1) the co-occurrence of smoking, obesity, hypertension and elevated serum cholesterol by education and marital status, and (2) its trends in different sociodemographic groups in Finland. We used data from cross-sectional health examination surveys among the general population (25-64 years): for 1997-2012 the National FINRISK Study and for 2017 the FinHealth 2017 Survey (n = 25036). A risk factor accumulation score with categories (1) zero, (2) one, (3) two, and (4) three or four elevated risk factors was the outcome in multinomial logistic regression. The risk factor score was more favourable among women, among high education groups, and slightly among participants living with a spouse. Among men, the lowest risk factor score class became more prevalent especially in the intermediate education group, which approached the highest education group over time. Our results indicate an overall transition towards a more favourable risk factor distribution. However, risk factor accumulation among the least educated remained emphasizing the need to develop and implement more targeted prevention interventions and public health policies to decrease the risk factor burden particularly in this group.

Pregnancy complications in women of Russian, Somali, and Kurdish origin and women in the general population in Finland.

OBJECTIVE: We compared the prevalence of gestational diabetes and hypertensive disorders in the most recent pregnancy among women of Russian, Somali, and Kurdish origin and women in the general population in Finland. METHODS: The study groups were selected from population-based samples of 18- to 64-year-old women. The women were of Russian (n = 318), Somali (n = 583), and Kurdish (n = 373) origin or from the general population (n = 243), and had given birth in Finland between 2004 and 2014. The data were obtained from the National Medical Birth Register and the Hospital Discharge Register. Data on gestational diabetes and hypertensive disorders were extracted based on relevant International Classification of Diseases, Tenth Revision codes. The main statistical methods were logistic regression analyses adjusted for age, parity, body mass index, socioeconomic status, and smoking. RESULTS: The prevalence of gestational diabetes was 19.1% in Kurdish, 14.4% in Somali, 9.3% in Russian, and 11.8% in the general population. The prevalence of hypertensive disorders was 5.4% in the general population, 3.8% in Somali, 3.1% in Kurdish, and 1.7% in Russian. When adjusted for confounders, Kurdish women had two-fold odds for gestational diabetes (odds ratio = 1.98; 95% confidence interval = 1.20-3.32) compared with the general population, but the odds for hypertensive disorders did not differ between groups. CONCLUSION: Women of Kurdish origin were more likely to develop gestational diabetes. Studies with larger samples are required to confirm these findings to develop prevention strategies for later development of type 2 diabetes. Future research including other migrant groups is recommended to identify differences in pregnancy complications among the women in migrant and general population.

Estimating expected life-years and risk factor associations with mortality in Finland: cohort study.

OBJECTIVE: To develop a tool to inform individuals and general practitioners about benefits of lifestyle changes by providing estimates of the expected age of death (EAD) for different risk factor values, and for those who plan and decide on preventive activities and health services at population level, to calculate potential need for these. DESIGN: Prospective cohort study to estimate EAD using a model with 27 established risk factors, categorised into four groups: (1) sociodemographic background and medical history, (2) lifestyles, (3) life satisfaction, and (4) biological risk factors. We apply a Poisson regression model on the survival data split into 1-year intervals. PARTICIPANTS: Total of 38 549 participants aged 25-74 years at baseline of the National FINRISK Study between 1987 and 2007. PRIMARY OUTCOME MEASURES: Register-based comprehensive mortality data from 1987 to 2014 with an average follow-up time of 16 years and 4310 deaths. RESULTS: Almost all risk factors included in the model were statistically significantly associated with death. The largest influence on the EAD appeared to be a current heavy smoker versus a never smoker as the EAD for a 30-year-old man decreased from 86.8 years, which corresponds to the reference values of the risk factors, to 80.2 years. Diabetes decreased EAD by >6.6 years. Whole or full milk consumers had 3.4 years lower EAD compared with those consuming skimmed milk. Physically inactive men had 2.4 years lower EAD than those with high activity. Men who found their life almost unbearable due to stress had 2.8 years lower EAD. CONCLUSIONS: The biological risk factors and lifestyles, and the factors connected with life satisfaction were clearly associated with EAD. Our model for estimating a person's EAD can be used to motivate lifestyle changes.

Protocol of a research project 'Projections of the burden of disease and disability in Finland - health policy prospects' using cross-sectional health surveys and register-based follow-up.

INTRODUCTION: With the rapid ageing of the population in Europe, reliable estimates of the future development of the disease and disability burden as well as healthy life years in the older sections of the population are crucial. Meanwhile, the future prospects of the health and functional ability of the working-aged population are critical. The aims of the Projections of the burden of disease and disability in Finland - health policy prospects research project are to provide information about the long-term consequences of health-related behaviours of the population and to project the potential improvement of the burden of disease and disability based on realistic scenarios about the development of risk behaviours in the total population and its subgroups. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: The analyses will be based on data from representative cross-sectional and longitudinal health examination surveys (HESs) conducted between 1972 to 2017 in Finland, and register data from several national administrative registers. Included HESs (FINRISK Surveys from 1972 to 2012, Mini-Finland Survey from 1978 to 1980, the Health 2000/2011 Surveys and the FinHealth 2017 Study) provide abundant information about biological and behavioural risk factors and the health and morbidity of the population. The modifiable risk factors used as predictors include hypertension, hyperlipidaemia, obesity, diabetes, physical inactivity, smoking, alcohol use and unfavourable diet. The main outcomes are ischaemic heart disease, cerebrovascular diseases, lung cancer, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, Alzheimer's disease and diabetes. Within the project, novel projection techniques of data-driven Bayesian hierarchical models to provide robust and comparable estimates will be developed. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: The prevailing legislation and regulations have been followed for all surveys. Surveys since 1997 have been approved by the respective Ethics Committees covering the scope of this project. A written informed consent was obtained from participants since 1997. The outputs of the project will include 8 to 10 scientific papers in peer-reviewed journals.

Predictors of New Airway Obstruction - An 11 Year's Population-Based Follow-Up Study.

In the present study we aimed to investigate the incidence and predictors of spirometry based airway obstruction in a representative population-based sample. Altogether 3,863 subjects, 1,651 males and 2,212 females aged ≥30 years had normal spirometry in year 2000. Fifty-three percent of them were never and 23% current smokers. A re-spirometry was performed 11 years later. Several characteristics, such as level of education, use of alcohol, physical activity, diet using Alternate healthy eating (AHEI) index, body mass index, circumwaist, sensitive C reactive protein (CRP) and cotinine of the laboratory values and co-morbidities including asthma, allergic rhinitis, sleep apnoea and chronic bronchitis, as potential risk factors for airway obstruction were evaluated. Using forced expiratory volume in one second/ forced vital capacity below the lower limit of normal, we observed 124 new cases of airway obstruction showing a cumulative 11-year incidence of 3.2% and corresponding to an incidence rate of 5.6/1,000 per year (PY). The incidence rate was higher in men than in women (6.3/1,000 PY vs. 5.0/1,000 PY, respectively). The strongest risk factors were current smoking (Odds ratio [OR] 2.5) and previously diagnosed asthma (OR 2.1). Sensitive CRP associated with the increased risk and high AHEI index with the decreased risk of airway obstruction. Using the similar study approach our findings on the incidence of airway obstruction are in line with the previously published figures in Europe. We were able to confirm the recent findings on the protective effect of healthy diet.