Overall survival and objective response in advanced unresectable hepatocellular carcinoma: A subanalysis of the REFLECT study.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Validated surrogate endpoints for overall survival (OS) are important for expediting the clinical study and drug-development processes. Herein, we aimed to validate objective response as an independent predictor of OS in individuals with unresectable hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) receiving systemic anti-angiogenic therapy. METHODS: We investigated the association between objective response (investigator-assessed mRECIST, independent radiologic review [IRR] mRECIST and RECIST v1.1) and OS in REFLECT, a phase III study of lenvatinib vs. sorafenib. We conducted landmark analyses (Simon-Makuch) of OS by objective response at 2, 4, and 6 months after randomization. RESULTS: Median OS was 21.6 months (95% CI 18.6-24.5) for responders (investigator-assessed mRECIST) vs. 11.9 months (95% CI 10.7-12.8) for non-responders (hazard ratio [HR] 0.61; 95% CI 0.49-0.76; p <0.001). Objective response by IRR per mRECIST and RECIST v1.1 supported the association with OS (HR 0.61; 95% CI 0.51-0.72; p <0.001 and HR 0.50; 95% CI 0.39-0.65; p <0.001, respectively). OS was significantly prolonged for responders vs. non-responders (investigator-assessed mRECIST) at the 2-month (HR 0.61; 95% CI 0.49-0.76; p <0.001), 4-month (HR 0.63; 95% CI 0.51-0.80; p <0.001), and 6-month (HR 0.68; 95% CI 0.54-0.86; p <0.001) landmarks. Results were similar when assessed by IRR, with both mRECIST and RECIST v1.1. An exploratory multivariate Cox regression analysis identified objective response by investigator-assessed mRECIST (HR 0.55; 95% CI 0.44-0.68; p <0.0001) and IRR-assessed RECIST v1.1 (HR 0.49; 95% CI, 0.38-0.64; p <0.0001) as independent predictors of OS in individuals with unresectable HCC. CONCLUSIONS: Objective response was an independent predictor of OS in individuals with unresectable HCC in REFLECT; additional studies are needed to confirm surrogacy. Participants achieving a complete or partial response by mRECIST or RECIST v1.1 had significantly longer survival vs. those with stable/progressive/non-evaluable disease. GOV NUMBER: NCT01761266. IMPACT AND IMPLICATIONS: This analysis of data taken from a completed clinical trial (REFLECT) looked for any link between objective response and overall survival time in individuals with unresectable HCC receiving anti-angiogenic treatments. Significantly longer median overall survival was found for responders (21.6 months) vs. non-responders (11.9 months). Overall survival was also significantly longer for responders vs. non-responders (based on objective response status at 2, 4, and 6 months) in the landmark analysis. Our results indicate that objective response is an independent predictor of overall survival in this setting, confirming its validity as a rapid marker of efficacy that can be applied in phase II trials; however, further validation is required to determine is validity for other systemic treatments (e.g. immunotherapies), or as a surrogate of overall survival.

Applications of molecular barcode sequencing for the detection of low-frequency variants in circulating tumour DNA from hepatocellular carcinoma.

PURPOSE: Liquid biopsy has emerged as a promising tool for minimally invasive and accurate detection of various malignancies. We aimed to apply molecular barcode sequencing to circulating tumour DNA (ctDNA) from liquid biopsies of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). STUDY DESIGN: Patients with HCC or benign liver disease were enrolled between 2017 and 2018. Matched tissue and serum samples were obtained from these patients. Plasma cell-free DNA was extracted and subjected to targeted sequencing with ultra-high coverage and molecular barcoding. RESULTS: The study included 143 patients: 102 with HCC, 7 with benign liver tumours and 34 with chronic liver disease. No tier 1/2 or oncogenic mutations were detected in patients with benign liver disease. Among the HCC patients, 49 (48%) had tier 1/2 mutations in at least one gene; detection rates were higher in advanced stages (75%) than in early stages (26%-33%). TERT was the most frequently mutated gene (30%), followed by TP53 (16%), CTNNB1 (14%), ARID2 (5%), ARID1A (4%), NFE2L2 (4%), AXIN1 (3%) and KRAS (1%). Survival among patients with TP53 mutations was significantly worse (p = 0.007) than among patients without these mutations, whereas CTNNB1 and TERT mutations did not affect survival. ctDNA testing combined with α-fetoprotein and prothrombin induced by vitamin K absence-II analyses improved HCC detection, even in early stages. CONCLUSIONS: ctDNA detection using molecular barcoding technology offers dynamic and personalized information concerning tumour biology, such information can guide clinical diagnosis and management. This detection also has the potential as a minimally invasive approach for prognostic stratification and post-therapeutic monitoring.

Pharmacodynamic Biomarkers Predictive of Survival Benefit with Lenvatinib in Unresectable Hepatocellular Carcinoma: From the Phase III REFLECT Study.

PURPOSE: In REFLECT, lenvatinib demonstrated an effect on overall survival (OS) by confirmation of noninferiority to sorafenib in unresectable hepatocellular carcinoma. This analysis assessed correlations between serum or tissue biomarkers and efficacy outcomes from REFLECT. EXPERIMENTAL DESIGN: Serum biomarkers (VEGF, ANG2, FGF19, FGF21, and FGF23) were measured by ELISA. Gene expression in tumor tissues was measured by the nCounter PanCancer Pathways Panel. Pharmacodynamic changes in serum biomarker levels from baseline, and associations of clinical outcomes with baseline biomarker levels, were evaluated. RESULTS: Four hundred and seven patients were included in the serum analysis set (lenvatinib n = 279, sorafenib n = 128); 58 patients were included in the gene-expression analysis set (lenvatinib n = 34, sorafenib n = 24). Both treatments were associated with increases in VEGF; only lenvatinib was associated with increases in FGF19 and FGF23 at all time points. Lenvatinib-treated responders had greater increases in FGF19 and FGF23 versus nonresponders at cycle 4, day 1 (FGF19: 55.2% vs. 18.3%, P = 0.014; FGF23: 48.4% vs. 16.4%, P = 0.0022, respectively). Higher baseline VEGF, ANG2, and FGF21 correlated with shorter OS in both treatment groups. OS was longer for lenvatinib than sorafenib [median, 10.9 vs. 6.8 months, respectively; HR, 0.53; 95% confidence interval (CI), 0.33-0.85; P-interaction = 0.0397] with higher baseline FGF21. In tumor tissue biomarker analysis, VEGF/FGF-enriched groups showed improved OS with lenvatinib versus the intermediate VEGF/FGF group (HR, 0.39; 95% CI, 0.16-0.91; P = 0.0253). CONCLUSIONS: Higher baseline levels of VEGF, FGF21, and ANG2 may be prognostic for shorter OS. Higher baseline FGF21 may be predictive for longer OS with lenvatinib compared with sorafenib, but this needs confirmation.

Safety and efficacy of lenvatinib by starting dose based on body weight in patients with unresectable hepatocellular carcinoma in REFLECT.

BACKGROUND: REFLECT was an open-label, phase 3 study comparing the efficacy and safety of lenvatinib versus sorafenib in patients with unresectable hepatocellular carcinoma (uHCC). Based on phase 2 study (Study 202) results, body weight-based dosing for lenvatinib was used in REFLECT to minimize dose disruptions and modifications needed to address dose-related adverse events. This post hoc analysis of REFLECT data assessed lenvatinib efficacy and safety by body weight group. METHODS: The study randomly administered lenvatinib (n = 476) or sorafenib (n = 475) to patients with untreated (no prior systemic therapy) uHCC. Lenvatinib starting-dose data were stratified by body weight: patients weighing < 60 kg received 8 mg/day; patients weighing ≥ 60 kg received 12 mg/day. Overall survival (OS), progression-free survival (PFS), objective response rate, and safety were assessed. RESULTS: Survival outcomes and safety profiles appeared similar between the two body-weight-based lenvatinib starting-dose groups. Median OS for patients in the < 60 kg body weight group (n = 153) was 13.4 months [95% confidence interval (CI) 10.5-15.7] compared to 13.7 months (95% CI 12.0-15.6) in the ≥ 60 kg body weight group (n = 325). In both lenvatinib groups, PFS was 7.4 months (< 60 kg group: 95% CI 5.4-9.2; ≥ 60 kg group: 95% CI 6.9-9.0). Treatment-emergent adverse events (TEAEs) required dose modifications in 43.0% in the < 60 kg body weight group and 57.5% in the ≥ 60 kg body weight group. CONCLUSIONS: This exploratory analysis of data from REFLECT indicated that body weight-based lenvatinib dosing in patients with uHCC was successful in maintaining efficacy, with comparable rates of TEAEs and dose modifications in the two body weight groups. CLININCAL TRIAL: Trial registration ID: ClinicalTrials.gov # NCT01761266.

Revised Korean Antiviral Guideline Reduces the Hepatitis B-related Hepatocellular Carcinoma Risk in Cirrhotic Patients.

BACKGROUND: Since September 2015, the initiation of antiviral therapy (AVT) for patients with chronic hepatitis B (CHB)-related cirrhosis has been reimbursed according to the revised Korean Association for the Study of Liver (KASL) guideline, if the patient had hepatitis B virus DNA level ≥ 2,000 IU/L, regardless of aminotransferase or alanine aminotransferase levels. This study investigated whether the KASL guideline implementation reduced the risk of CHB-related hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in patients with cirrhosis in South Korea. METHODS: A total of 429 patients with CHB-related cirrhosis who initiated AVT between 2014 and 2016 were recruited. The risk of HCC development was compared between patients who initiated AVT before and after September 2015 (pre-guideline [n = 196, 45.7%] vs. post-guideline implementation [n = 233, 54.3%]). RESULTS: Univariate analysis showed that AVT initiation before guideline implementation, older age, male gender, and diabetes significantly predicted increased risk of HCC development (all P < 0.05). Subsequent multivariate analysis showed that AVT initiation before guideline implementation (HR = 1.941), older age (HR = 5.762), male gender (HR = 2.555), and diabetes (HR = 1.568) independently predicted increased risk of HCC development (all P < 0.05). Additionally, multivariate analysis showed that AVT initiation before guideline implementation (HR = 2.309), male gender (HR = 3.058), and lower platelet count (HR = 0.989) independently predicted mortality (P < 0.05). The cumulative incidences of HCC and mortality were significantly higher in patients who initiated AVT before guideline implementation than in those who initiated AVT after guideline implementation (all P < 0.05, log-rank test). CONCLUSION: The prognosis of patients with CHB-related cirrhosis who initiated AVT improved after guideline implementation according to the revised KASL guideline.

Treatment efficacy by hepatic arterial infusion chemotherapy vs. sorafenib after liver-directed concurrent chemoradiotherapy for advanced hepatocellular carcinoma.

BACKGROUND: We compared the clinical efficacies of hepatic arterial infusion chemotherapy (HAIC) vs. sorafenib as sequential maintenance therapy following liver-directed concurrent chemoradiotherapy (LD-CCRT) for locally advanced-stage hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). METHODS: Patients undergoing HAIC with 5-fluorouracil and cisplatin (HAIC-maintain group, n = 151) or sorafenib (Sorafenib-maintain group, n = 37) after LD-CCRT were consecutively enrolled. The study endpoints were overall survival (OS), progression-free survival (PFS), and treatment response rates. RESULTS: The median OS among HAIC-maintain and Sorafenib-maintain groups were 15.9 and 24.3 months (p = 0.287), whereas the median PFS were 8.1 and 9.1 months (p = 0.651), respectively. During the planned treatments, the radiological objective response rate (54.3% vs. 64.9%; p = 0.246), and conversion rate to surgical resection or liver transplantation after successful down-staging (15.9% vs. 18.9%; p = 0.657) were comparable between the HAIC-maintain and Sorafenib-maintain groups. Similar results were found after the inverse probability of treatment weighting and propensity score-matching analyses. Regarding treatment-related adverse events, the HAIC-maintain group showed worse profiles in terms of leukopenia (all grades [p = 0.001] and grades 3 or 4 [p = 0.041]) and hypoalbuminemia (p = 0.001) than the Sorafenib-maintain group. CONCLUSIONS: The overall clinical efficacies between the sequential treatment of HAIC vs. sorafenib after LD-CCRT were comparable for locally advanced HCC.

Direct-Acting Antivirals Improve Treatment Outcomes in Patients with Hepatitis C Virus-Related Hepatocellular Carcinoma Treated with Transarterial Chemoembolization: A Nationwide, Multi-center, Retrospective Cohort Study.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: The influence of direct-acting antivirals (DAAs) on chronic hepatitis C (CHC)-related hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) remains controversial. We investigated the effect of eradicating CHC using DAAs on treatment outcomes in patients with CHC-related HCC treated with transarterial chemoembolization (TACE). METHODS: This nationwide, multi-center, retrospective study recruited patients with CHC-related HCC treated with TACE as the first-line anti-cancer treatment, and who achieved a sustained virological response (SVR) using DAAs (DAA group) between 2006 and 2017. Patients achieving an SVR following interferon-based treatment (IFN group) and those without treatment (control group) were also recruited for comparison. RESULTS: A total of 425 patients were eligible for the study. Of these, 356 (83.8%), 26 (6.1%), and 43 (10.1%) were allocated to the control, IFN, and DAA groups, respectively. A multivariate analysis showed that liver cirrhosis, segmental portal vein thrombosis, and larger maximal tumor size independently predicted an increased risk of progression (all p < 0.05), whereas, the DAA group (vs. IFN and control groups) independently predicted a reduced risk of progression (hazard ratio (HR) = 0.630, 95% confidence interval 0.411-0.966, p = 0.034). The cumulative incidence rate of HCC progression in the DAA group was significantly lower than that in the IFN and control groups (p = 0.033, log-rank test). In addition, the DAA group (vs. IFN and control groups) was independently associated with a reduced risk of mortality (p = 0.042). CONCLUSIONS: DAA treatment provided significantly prolonged progression-free survival in patients with CHC-related HCC treated with TACE compared to that in patients administered IFN or no treatment.

Change in the Recurrence Pattern and Predictors over Time after Complete Cure of Hepatocellular Carcinoma.

Background/Aims: We investigated changes in recurrence rates and significant recurrence predictors over time after complete cure of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). Methods: A total of 1,491 patients with first-time diagnosis of Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer stage A HCC, completely cured by treatment between 2007 and 2016, were recruited from two Korean tertiary institutes. Results: The mean age of the population (1,144 men and 347 women) was 58.6 years. Of the total population, 914 patients (61.3%) had liver cirrhosis. Nine-hundred and forty-one (63.1%) and 550 (36.9%) patients were treated with surgical resection and radiofrequency ablation (RFA), respectively. One-year cumulative incidences of HCC recurrence were 14.3%, 9.9%, and 5.1% from the time of treatment, 3 years after treatment, and 5 years after treatment, respectively. Upon multivariate analysis, multiple tumors, maximal tumor size ≥3 cm, and high Model for End-Stage Liver Disease scores were independently associated with increased HCC recurrence risk from the time of treatment and 1 and 2 years after curative treatment (all p<0.05, except for maximal tumor size ≥3 cm for recurrence 2 years after treatment). Meanwhile, liver cirrhosis and RFA were independently associated with the increased HCC recurrence risk for almost all time points (liver cirrhosis: all p<0.05; RFA: all p<0.005 except for recurrence from 5 years after treatment). Conclusions: The recurrence rate of HCC after curative treatment gradually decreased over time. Two years after treatment, when tumor-related factors lose their prognostic implications, may be used as a cutoff to define the boundary between early and late recurrence of HCC.

Dynamics of liver stiffness-based risk prediction model during antiviral therapy in patients with chronic hepatitis B.

OBJECTIVE: The liver stiffness-based risk prediction models predict hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) development. We investigated the influence of antiviral therapy (AVT) on liver stiffness-based risk prediction model in patients with chronic hepatitis B (CHB). METHODS: Patients with CHB who initiated AVT were retrospectively recruited from 13 referral Korean institutes. The modified risk estimation for hepatocellular carcinoma in chronic hepatitis B (mREACH-B) model was selected for the analysis. RESULTS: Between 2007 and 2015, 1034 patients with CHB were recruited. The mean age of the study population (639 men and 395 women) was 46.8 years. During AVT, the mREACH-B score significantly decreased from the baseline to 3 years of AVT (mean 9.21 → 7.46, P < 0.05) and was maintained until 5 years of AVT (mean 7.23, P > 0.05). The proportion of high-risk patients (mREACH-B score ≥11) was significantly reduced from the baseline to 2 years of AVT (36.4% → 16.4%, P < 0.001) and was maintained until 5 years of AVT (12.2%, P > 0.05). The mREACH-B scores at baseline and 1 year of AVT independently predicted HCC development (hazard ratio = 1.209-1.224) (all P < 0.05). The cumulative incidence rate of HCC was significantly different at 5 years of AVT among risk groups (high vs. high-intermediate vs. low-intermediate vs. low) from baseline (4.5% vs. 3.2% vs. 1.5% vs. 0.8%) and 1 year (11.8% vs. 4.6% vs. 1.8% vs. 0.6%) (all P < 0.05, log-rank tests). CONCLUSIONS: The mREACH-B score was dynamically changed during AVT. Thus, repeated assessment of the mREACH-B score is required to predict the changing risk of HCC development in patients with CHB undergoing AVT.

Negligible risks of hepatocellular carcinoma during biomarker-defined immune-tolerant phase for patients with chronic hepatitis B.

BACKGROUND/AIMS: The immune-tolerant (IT) phase of chronic hepatitis B (CHB) patients is not generally indicative of antiviral therapy (AVT). We assessed and compared the risk of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) during the IT-phase stringently defined by a low fibrosis-4 (FIB-4) index, compared to that in patients undergoing AVT. METHODS: Among 125 untreated patients that were hepatitis B e-antigen positive, hepatitis B virus-DNA >20,000 IU/mL, with normal alanine aminotransferase level from 2012 to 2018, those with a FIB-4 index of <1.45 were classified into the IT-group. The cumulative probability of HCC was estimated using Kaplan-Meier analysis. All patients were assessed until HCC development (intention-to-treat [ITT] analysis), whereas those suspected of experiencing CHB phase switch were assessed using the per-protocol (PP) and censored at the time of phase switch. RESULTS: The cumulative probability of HCC at 1-, 3-, and 5-years among the IT-group was zero, compared to AVT-treated patients with FIB-4 indices <1.45 during the same period: 0.2%, 0.6%, and 1.4%, respectively (P=0.264 for ITT and P=0.533 for PP). Among the initially screened 125 untreated patients, those with a FIB-4 index of ≥1.45 had a higher risk of HCC compared to the IT-group (P=0.005). Furthermore, among AVT-treated patients, those with a FIB-4 index of ≥1.45 had a higher risk of HCC compared to their counterpart (P<0.001). CONCLUSION: The risk of HCC was negligible in the IT-group stringently defined by a low FIB-4 index. However, given that a higher HCC risk exists among untreated patients with higher FIB-4, appropriate criteria for AVT should be established.

Prognostic Value of Alpha-Fetoprotein in Patients Who Achieve a Complete Response to Transarterial Chemoembolization for Hepatocellular Carcinoma.

PURPOSE: Alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) is a prognostic marker for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). We investigated the prognostic value of AFP levels in patients who achieved complete response (CR) to transarterial chemoembolization (TACE) for HCC. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Between 2005 and 2018, 890 patients with HCC who achieved a CR to TACE were recruited. An AFP responder was defined as a patient who showed elevated levels of AFP (>10 ng/mL) during TACE, but showed normalization or a >50% reduction in AFP levels after achieving a CR. RESULTS: Among the recruited patients, 569 (63.9%) with naïve HCC and 321 (36.1%) with recurrent HCC after complete resection were treated. Before TACE, 305 (34.3%) patients had multiple tumors, 219 (24.6%) had a maximal tumor size >3 cm, and 22 (2.5%) had portal vein tumor thrombosis. The median AFP level after achieving a CR was 6.36 ng/mL. After a CR, 473 (53.1%) patients experienced recurrence, and 417 (46.9%) died [median progression-free survival (PFS) and overall survival (OS) of 16.3 and 62.8 months, respectively]. High AFP levels at CR (>20 ng/mL) were independently associated with a shorter PFS [hazard ratio (HR)=1.403] and OS (HR=1.284), together with tumor multiplicity at TACE (HR=1.518 and 1.666, respectively). AFP non-responders at CR (76.2%, n=359 of 471) showed a shorter PFS (median 10.5 months vs. 15.5 months, HR=1.375) and OS (median 41.4 months vs. 61.8 months, HR=1.424) than AFP responders (all p=0.001). CONCLUSION: High AFP levels and AFP non-responders were independently associated with poor outcomes after TACE. AFP holds clinical implications for detailed risk stratification upon achieving a CR after TACE.

Appraisal of Long-Term Outcomes of Liver-Directed Concurrent Chemoradiotherapy for Hepatocellular Carcinoma with Major Portal Vein Invasion.

BACKGROUNDS AND AIMS: Molecular-targeted agents are acceptable standards to treat advanced-stage hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), however, their therapeutic benefit, ie, sorafenib, was significantly offset in case of major vessel invasion. Liver-directed concurrent chemo-radiotherapy (LD-CCRT) provided favorable outcomes in terms of survivals and tumor shrinkage, so, we appraised its long-term therapeutic efficacy. PATIENTS AND METHODS: Advanced HCC patients with portal vein invasion (main trunk or the 1st order branch) were enrolled. During a 5-week radiotherapy course, concurrent hepatic arterial infusion chemotherapy (HAIC) with 5-fluorouracil and leucovorin was administered through an implanted port on the first and last 5 days. Four weeks after LD-CCRT, a maintenance HAIC using 5-fluorouracil and cisplatin was administered every 4 weeks. RESULTS: Among 152 patients, the objective response rates as the best response by modified Response Evaluation Criteria In Solid Tumors were 48.0% after LD-CCRT and 55.3% during subsequent HAIC maintenance. After LD-CCRT, biological responses in alpha-fetoprotein and protein induced by the absence of vitamin K or antagonist-II levels were achieved in 46.2% and 52.6%, respectively. Sixteen patients (10.5%) underwent curative resection or liver transplantation after down-staging. Median overall survival and progression-free survival were 13.5 and 6.9 months, respectively. CONCLUSION: LD-CCRT followed by maintenance HAIC yielded favorable survival outcomes in advanced HCC patients with major portal vein invasion. Through initial tumor reduction, LD-CCRT induced down-staging with subsequent curative treatment feasible in 10.5% of patients, resulting in long-term survival. Further prospective trials are warranted to confirm these results.

Association between liver fibrosis and appendicular skeletal muscle mass during antiviral therapy in chronic hepatitis B.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Sarcopenia is associated with fibrotic burden in patients with chronic hepatitis B. We investigated the dynamic association between fibrosis changes and appendicular skeletal muscle mass during antiviral therapy in patients with chronic hepatitis B. METHODS: Between 2015 and 2018, chronic hepatitis B patients who received paired transient elastography to assess fibrotic burden in the liver and bioelectrical impedance analysis to assess appendicular skeletal muscle mass were recruited retrospectively. The sarcopenia index was calculated as total appendicular skeletal muscle mass/body mass index. Significant liver fibrosis was defined as a liver stiffness value≥8 kPa. RESULTS: In total, 223 (53.7%) received antiviral therapy, whereas 192 (46.3%) did not. Appendicular skeletal muscle mass decreased significantly in the antiviral therapy group (mean 21.16→21.00 kg, P = 0.01), but not in the non-antiviral therapy group (mean 20.77→20.64 kg, P = 0.134). In a subgroup with significant liver fibrosis, similar findings were observed (mean 20.73→20.54 kg in antiviral therapy group, P = 0.037; mean 21.39→21.07 kg in the non-antiviral therapy group, P = 0.097). Older age, male gender, higher body mass index, and higher aspartate aminotransferase were significantly associated with the increased risk of appendicular skeletal muscle mass reduction (≥5% from the baseline). CONCLUSIONS: Appendicular skeletal muscle mass significantly decreased during antiviral therapy in patients with chronic hepatitis B patients.

Liver-directed combined radiotherapy as a bridge to curative surgery in locally advanced hepatocellular carcinoma beyond the Milan criteria.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: Liver-directed combined radiotherapy (LDCRT) can provide substantial tumor control, which may be an effective bridge to curative surgery for selected patients. We aimed to investigate the outcomes of LDCRT for locally advanced hepatocellular carcinoma (LAHCC) beyond the Milan criteria. MATERIALS AND METHODS: We identified 1078 patients diagnosed with LAHCC who received LDCRT and compared the outcomes based on no surgery, conversion to surgical resection, and liver transplantation (LT). Predictive factors for conversion to curative surgery were identified using logistic regression analysis. RESULTS: The most frequently used LDCRT strategies were concurrent chemoradiation (CCRT) (497 patients, 46.1%) and transarterial chemoembolization (TACE) plus radiotherapy (251 patients 23.3%). After LDCRT, 96 (8.9%) and 42 patients (3.9%) received surgical resection and LT, respectively. After a median follow-up of 14.4 months, the 5-year overall survival (OS) rate was 16.5% for all patients. Conversion to curative surgery group had higher 5-year OS (surgical resection vs. LT vs. no surgery: 58.1% vs. 54.3% vs. 10.2%, p < 0.001). Patients aged < 60 years with a single tumor, no treatment history, pre-treatment Child class A, lower pre-treatment tumor marker levels, and radiologic complete or partial response (all p < 0.050) had a higher chance of conversion to surgery. CONCLUSION: LDCRT could convert tumors to within the Milan criteria as a bridge to curative surgery, and improved long-term survival for the selected patients. Clinicians should consider LDCRT followed by curative surgery for young patients who are treatment-naïve and have good liver function with favorable tumor characteristics showing radiologic response to LDCRT.

A Changing Paradigm for the Treatment of Intermediate-Stage Hepatocellular Carcinoma: Asia-Pacific Primary Liver Cancer Expert Consensus Statements.

The Asia-Pacific Primary Liver Cancer Expert (APPLE) Consensus Statement on the treatment strategy for patients with intermediate-stage hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) was established on August 31, 2019, in Sapporo, Hokkaido during the 10th Annual APPLE Meeting. This manuscript summarizes the international consensus statements developed at APPLE 2019. Transarterial chemoembolization (TACE) is the only guideline-recommended global standard of care for intermediate-stage HCC. However, not all patients benefit from TACE because intermediate-stage HCC is a heterogeneous disease in terms of tumor burden and liver function. Ten important clinical questions regarding this stage of HCC were raised, and consensus statements were generated based on high-quality evidence. In intermediate-stage HCC, preservation of liver function is as important as achieving a high objective response (OR) because the treatment goal is to prolong overall survival. Superselective conventional TACE (cTACE) is recommended as the first choice of treatment in patients eligible for effective (curative) TACE, whereas in patients who are not eligible, systemic therapy is recommended as the first choice of treatment. TACE is not indicated as the first-line therapy in TACE-unsuitable patients. Another important statement is that TACE should not be continued in patients who develop TACE failure/refractoriness in order to preserve liver function. Targeted therapy is the recommended first-line treatment for TACE-unsuitable patients. Especially, the drug, which can have higher OR rate, is preferred. Immunotherapy, transarterial radioembolization, TACE + targeted therapy or other modalities may be considered alternative options in TACE-unsuitable patients who are not candidates for targeted therapy. Better liver function, such as albumin-bilirubin grade 1, is an important factor for maximizing the therapeutic effect of systemic therapy.

Entecavir and tenofovir on renal function in patients with hepatitis B virus-related hepatocellular carcinoma.

The use of tenofovir disoproxil fumarate (TDF) is associated with a risk of renal dysfunction. We investigated whether TDF is associated with the deterioration of renal function in patients with hepatitis B virus (HBV)-related hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) requiring frequent computed tomography (CT) evaluations and transarterial chemoembolization (TACE) sessions, when compared to entecavir (ETV). Between 2007 and 2017, 493 patients with HBV-related HCC were enrolled. The number of CT evaluations and TACE sessions were collected through 3 years of follow-up. The median age of the study population (373 men and 120 women; 325 with ETV and 168 with TDF) was 56.5 years. TDF was significantly associated with a serum creatinine increase (≥25% from the baseline; unadjusted hazard ratio [uHR] = 1.620) and an estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) reduction (<20% from the baseline) (uHR = 1.950) (all P < .05), when compared to ETV. In addition, CT evaluations ≥4 times/year were significantly associated with a serum creatinine increase (uHR = 2.709), eGFR reduction (uHR = 3.274) and chronic kidney disease (CKD) progression (≥1 CKD stage from the baseline) (uHR = 1.980) (all P < .05). In contrast, TACE was not associated with all renal dysfunction parameters (all P > .05). After adjustment, TDF use was independently associated with the increased risk of eGFR reduction (adjusted HR [aHR] = 1.945; P = .023), whereas CT evaluation ≥4 times/year was independently associated with the increased risk of serum creatinine increase (aHR = 2.898), eGFR reduction (aHR = 3.484) and CKD progression (aHR = 1.984) (all P < .01). In conclusion, patients with HBV-related HCC treated with TDF and frequent CT evaluations should be closely monitored for the detection of associated renal dysfunction.

Natural History of Untreated HBeAg-Positive Chronic HBV Infection With Persistently Elevated HBV DNA but Normal Alanine Aminotransferase.

OBJECTIVES: Nucleos(t)ide analogues (NUCs) are not routinely recommended for patients with hepatitis B e antigen-positive chronic hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection who have persistently elevated serum HBV DNA level (>20,000 IU/mL) but normal alanine aminotransferase (<40 IU/L) level. Here, we evaluated the cumulative risks of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in such patients (the untreated persistently elevated serum HBV DNA [pEDNA] group) compared with inactive carriers (the IC group). METHODS: Patients with untreated pEDNA (n = 126) and IC (n = 621) were enrolled between 2006 and 2012. Patients with cirrhosis or HCC at enrollment or a history of NUC treatment were excluded. RESULTS: The cumulative HCC risks at 5 and 9 years in the untreated pEDNA group were 1.1% and 1.9%, which were comparable with those of the IC group (P = 0.549). Inverse probability of treatment weighting and propensity score matching also showed similar HCC risks. In the untreated pEDNA group, there were no cases of HCC in the subgroup with serum HBV DNA level >1,000,000 IU/mL (immune-tolerant phase), which was significantly (P = 0.002) different compared with those with an intermediate serum HBV DNA level (20,000-1,000,000 IU/mL). DISCUSSION: The cumulative HCC risk in the untreated pEDNA group was minimal and comparable with that of the IC group. Further studies are required to determine whether early NUC treatment, indeed, reduces the HCC risk in patients with an intermediate serum HBV DNA level.

A nomogram based on liver stiffness predicts postoperative complications in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Liver stiffness measurement (LSM), assessed by transient elastography (Fibroscan), has been demonstrated to predict post-hepatectomy liver failure in patients who undergo hepatic resection for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). However, other complications are also likely to be related to the underlying grade of liver fibrosis. Herein, we aimed to identify predictors of postoperative complications and to build and develop a novel nomogram able to identify patients at risk of developing severe complications. METHODS: Data from patients who underwent hepatectomy for HCC between 2006 and 2016 at 2 referral centres were retrospectively reviewed. All surgical complications were recorded and scored using the comprehensive complication index (CCI), ranging from 0 (uneventful course) to 100 (death). A CCI ≥26.2 was used as a threshold to define severe complications. RESULTS: During the study period, 471 patients underwent hepatic resection for HCC. Among them, 50 patients (10.6%) had a CCI ≥26.2. Age, model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) score and LSM values, together with serum albumin, were independent predictors of high CCI. The nomogram built on these variables was internally validated and showed good performance (optimism-corrected c-statistic = 0.751). A regression equation to predict the CCI was also established by multiple linear regression analysis: [LSM (kPa) × 0.254] + [age (years) × 0.118] + [MELD score (pt.) × 1.050] - [albumin (g/dl) × 2.395] - 3.639. CONCLUSION: A novel nomogram, combining LSM values, age and liver function tests provided an excellent preoperative prediction of high CCI in patients with resectable HCC. This predictive model could be used as a reference for clinicians and surgeons to help them in clinical decision-making. LAY SUMMARY: Liver stiffness measurement is increasingly being used to assess the degree of liver fibrosis in patients with cirrhosis and/or chronic hepatitis. Using Fibroscan, we developed a novel nomogram to predict severe complications following liver resection for hepatocellular carcinoma, according to the new comprehensive complication index. This tool could be used as a reference for clinicians and surgeons to help them in clinical decision-making.

Extremely low risk of hepatocellular carcinoma development in patients with chronic hepatitis B in immune-tolerant phase.

BACKGROUND: Anti-viral therapy is not indicated for patients with chronic hepatitis B (CHB) in the immune-tolerant phase. AIMS: To investigate the cumulative incidence of phase change and hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) and independent predictors for phase change in patients with CHB in immune-tolerant phase. METHODS: In total, 946 patients in immune-tolerant phase, defined as hepatitis B e antigen positivity, HBV-DNA >20 000 IU/mL and alanine aminotransferase (ALT) ≤40 IU/L, between 1989 and 2017 were enrolled from eight institutes. RESULTS: The mean age of study population (429 men and 517 women) was 36.7 years. The mean ALT and HBV-DNA levels were 24.6 IU/L and 8.50 log10 IU/mL, respectively. Of the study population, 476 (50.3%) patients remained in immune-tolerant phase throughout the study period (median: 63.6 months). The cumulative incidence rates of phase change and HCC at 10 years were 70.7% and 1.7%, respectively. Multivariate analyses revealed that HBV-DNA level >107  IU/mL was associated independently with a reduced risk of phase change (hazard ratio [HR] = 0.734, P = 0.008), whereas a high ALT level, above the cut-off recommended in the Korean Association for the Study of the Liver guidelines (34 IU/L for men and 30 IU/L for women), was associated independently with a greater risk of phase change (HR = 1.885, P < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: The criterion of HBV-DNA level > 107  IU/mL may be useful to define immune-tolerant phase. In addition, an extremely low risk of HCC development was observed in patients with CHB in immune-tolerant phase.

A tool to measure the impact of inaction toward elimination of hepatitis C: A case study in Korea.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Hepatitis C virus (HCV) and its sequelae present a significant source of economic and societal burden. Introduction of highly effective curative therapies has made HCV elimination attainable. The study used a predictive model to assess the clinical and economic impact of implementing national screening and treatment policies toward HCV elimination in Korea. METHODS: A previously validated Markov disease progression model of HCV infection was employed to analyze the clinical and economic impact of various strategies for HCV diagnosis and treatment in Korea. In this analysis, the model compared the clinical and economic outcomes of current HCV-related interventions in Korea (7,000 patients treated and 4,200 patients newly diagnosed annually, starting in 2017) to four elimination scenarios: 1) initiating sufficient diagnosis and treatment interventions to meet the World Health Organization's GHSS elimination targets by 2030, 2) delaying initiation of interventions by one year, 3) delaying initiation of interventions by two years and 4) accelerating initiation of interventions to meet elimination targets by 2025. Modelled historical incidence of HCV was calibrated to match a viremic HCV prevalence of 0.44% in 2009. Elimination scenarios required 24,000 treatments and 34,000 newly diagnosed patients annually, starting in 2018, to reach the 2030 targets. RESULTS: Compared to current "status quo" interventions, elimination (or accelerated elimination by 2025) would avert 23,700 (27,000) incident cases of HCV, 1,300 (1,400) liver-related deaths (LRDs) and 2,900 (3,100) cases of end-stage liver disease (ESLD) over the 2017-2030 time period. Postponing interventions by one (or two) years would avert 21,100 (18,600) new HCV infections, 920 (660) LRDs and 2,000 (1,400) cases of ESLD by 2030. Following elimination or accelerated elimination strategies would save 860 million USD or 1.1 billion USD by 2030, respectively, compared to the status quo, requiring an up-front investment in prevention that decreases spending on liver-related complications and death. CONCLUSIONS: By projecting the impact of interventions and tracking progress toward GHSS elimination targets using modelling, we demonstrate that Korea can prevent significant morbidity, mortality and spending on HCV. Results should serve as the backbone for policy and decision-making, demonstrating how aggressive prevention measures are designed to reduce future costs and increase the health of the public.