Design of the SPIROMICS Study of Early COPD Progression: SOURCE Study.

The biological mechanisms leading some tobacco-exposed individuals to develop early-stage chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) are poorly understood. This knowledge gap hampers development of disease-modifying agents for this prevalent condition. Accord-ingly, with National Heart, Lung and Blood Institute support, we initiated the SPIROMICS Study of Early COPD Progression (SOURCE), a multicenter observational cohort study of younger individuals with a history of cigarette smoking and thus at-risk for, or with, early-stage COPD. Our overall objectives are to identify those who will develop COPD earlier in life, characterize them thoroughly, and by contrasting them to those not developing COPD, define mechanisms of disease progression. SOURCE utilizes the established SPIROMICS clinical network. Its goal is to enroll n=649 participants, ages 30-55 years, all races/ethnicities, with ≥10 pack-years cigarette smoking, in either Global Initiative for Chronic Obstructive Lung Disease (GOLD) groups 0-2 or with Preserved Ratio Impaired Spirometry (PRISm); and an additional n=40 never-smoker controls. Participants undergo baseline and three-year follow-up visits, each including high-resolution computed tomography; respiratory oscillometry and spirometry (pre- and post-bronchodilator administration), exhaled breath condensate (baseline only); and extensive biospecimen collection, including sputum induction. Symptoms, interim healthcare utilization, and exacerbations are captured every six months via follow-up phone calls. An embedded bronchoscopy sub-study involving n=100 participants (including all never-smokers) will allow collection of lower airway samples for genetic, epigenetic, genomic, immunological, microbiome, mucin analyses, and basal cell culture. SOURCE should provide novel insights into the natural history of lung disease in younger individuals with a smoking history, and its biological basis.

Unsupervised Exercise in Interstitial Lung Disease: A Delphi Study to Develop a Consensus Preparticipation Screening Tool for Lymphangioleiomyomatosis.

BACKGROUND: Little research is available to provide practical guidance to health-care providers for exercise preparticipation screening and referral of patients with interstitial lung diseases (ILDs), including lymphangioleiomyomatosis (LAM), to participate in remote, unsupervised exercise programs. RESEARCH QUESTION: What exercise preparticipation screening steps are essential to determine whether a patient with LAM is medically appropriate to participate in a remote, unsupervised exercise program? STUDY DESIGN AND METHODS: Sixteen experts in LAM and ILD participated in a two-round modified Delphi study, ranking their level of agreement for 10 statements related to unsupervised exercise training in LAM, with an apriori definition of consensus. Additionally, 60 patients with LAM completed a survey of the perceived risks and benefits of remote exercise training in LAM. RESULTS: Seven of the 10 statements reached consensus among experts. Experts agreed that an in-person clinical exercise test is indicated to screen for exercise-induced hypoxemia and prescribe supplemental oxygen therapy as indicated prior to initiating a remote exercise program. Patients with recent pneumothorax should wait to start an exercise program for at least 4 weeks until after resolution of pneumothorax and clearance by a physician. Patients with high cardiovascular risk for event during exercise, severe resting pulmonary hypertension, or risk for falls may be more appropriate for referral to a rehabilitation center. A LAM-specific remote exercise preparticipation screening tool was developed from the consensus statements and agreed upon by the panelists. INTERPRETATION: A modified Delphi study approach was useful to develop disease-specific recommendations for safety and preparticipation screening prior to unsupervised, remotely administered exercise in LAM. The primary product of this study is a clinical decision aid for providers to use when medically screening patients prior to participation in the newly launched LAMFit remote exercise program.

Biological Age, Chronological Age, and Survival in Pulmonary Fibrosis: A Causal Mediation Analysis.

Rationale: Accelerated biological aging has been implicated in the development of interstitial lung disease (ILD) and other diseases of aging but remains poorly understood. Objectives: To identify plasma proteins that mediate the relationship between chronological age and survival association in patients with ILD. Methods: Causal mediation analysis was performed to identify plasma proteins that mediated the chronological age-survival relationship in an idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis discovery cohort. Proteins mediating this relationship after adjustment for false discovery were advanced for testing in an independent ILD validation cohort and explored in a chronic obstructive pulmonary disease cohort. A proteomic-based measure of biological age was constructed and survival analysis performed, assessing the impact of biological age and peripheral blood telomere length on the chronological age-survival relationship. Measurements and Main Results: Twenty-two proteins mediated the chronological age-survival relationship after adjustment for false discovery in the idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis discovery cohort (n = 874), with 19 remaining significant mediators of this relationship in the ILD validation cohort (n = 983) and one mediating this relationship in the chronic obstructive pulmonary disease cohort. Latent transforming growth factor-ß binding protein 2 and ectodysplasin A2 receptor showed the strongest mediation across cohorts. A proteomic measure of biological age completely attenuated the chronological age-survival association and better discriminated survival than chronological age. Results were robust to adjustment for peripheral blood telomere length, which did not mediate the chronological age-survival relationship. Conclusions: Molecular measures of aging completely mediate the relationship between chronological age and survival, suggesting that chronological age has no direct effect on ILD survival.

Association of Ground Glass Opacities with Systemic Inflammation and Progression of Emphysema.

RATIONAL: Ground glass opacities (GGO) in the absence of interstitial lung disease are understudied. OBJECTIVE: To assess the association of GGO with white blood cells (WBCs) and progression of quantified chest CT emphysema. METHODS: We analyzed data of participants in the Subpopulations and Intermediate Outcome Measures In COPD Study (SPIROMICS). Chest radiologists and pulmonologists labeled regions of the lung as GGO and adaptive multiple feature method (AMFM) trained the computer to assign those labels to image voxels and quantify the volume of the lung with GGO (%GGOAMFM). We used multivariable linear regression, zero-inflated negative binomial, and proportional hazards regression models to assess the association of %GGOAMFM with WBC, changes in %emphysema, and clinical outcomes. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: Among 2,714 participants, 1,680 had COPD and 1,034 had normal spirometry. Among COPD participants, based on the multivariable analysis, current smoking and chronic productive cough was associated with higher %GGOAMFM. Higher %GGOAMFM was cross-sectionally associated with higher WBCs and neutrophils levels. Higher %GGOAMFM per interquartile range at visit 1 (baseline) was associated with an increase in emphysema at one-year follow visit by 11.7% (Relative increase; 95%CI 7.5-16.1%;P<0.001). We found no association between %GGOAMFM and one-year FEV1 decline but %GGOAMFM was associated with exacerbations and all-cause mortality during a median follow-up time of 1,544 days (Interquartile Interval=1,118-2,059). Among normal spirometry participants, we found similar results except that %GGOAMFM was associated with progression to COPD at one-year follow-up. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings suggest that GGOAMFM is associated with increased systemic inflammation and emphysema progression.

The prevalence and mortality risks of PRISm and COPD in the United States from NHANES 2007-2012.

BACKGROUND: We estimated the prevalence and mortality risks of preserved ratio impaired spirometry (PRISm) and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) in the US adult population. METHODS: We linked three waves of pre-bronchodilator spirometry data from the US National Health and Nutritional Examination Survey (2007-2012) with the National Death Index. The analytic sample included adults ages 20 to 79 without missing data on age, sex, height, BMI, race/ethnicity, and smoking status. We defined COPD (GOLD 1, 2, and 3-4) and PRISm using FEV1/FVC cut points by the Global Initiative for Chronic Obstructive Lung Disease (GOLD). We compared the prevalence of GOLD stages and PRISm by covariates across the three waves. We estimated adjusted all-cause and cause-specific mortality risks by COPD stage and PRISm using all three waves combined. RESULTS: Prevalence of COPD and PRISm from 2007-2012 ranged from 13.1%-14.3% and 9.6%-10.2%, respectively. We found significant differences in prevalence by sex, age, smoking status, and race/ethnicity. Males had higher rates of COPD regardless of stage, while females had higher rates of PRISm. COPD prevalence increased with age, but not PRISm, which was highest among middle-aged individuals. Compared to current and never smokers, former smokers showed lower rates of PRISm but higher rates of GOLD 1. COPD prevalence was highest among non-Hispanic White individuals, and PRISm was notably higher among non-Hispanic Black individuals (range 31.4%-37.4%). We found associations between PRISm and all-cause mortality (hazard ratio [HR]: 2.3 95% CI: 1.9-2.9) and various cause-specific deaths (HR ranges: 2.0-5.3). We also found associations between GOLD 2 (HR: 2.1, 95% CI: 1.7-2.6) or higher (HR: 4.2, 95% CI: 2.7-6.5) and all-cause mortality. Cause-specific mortality risk varied within COPD stages but typically increased with higher GOLD stage. CONCLUSIONS: The prevalence of COPD and PRISm remained stable from 2007-2012. Greater attention should be paid to the potential impacts of PRISm due to its higher prevalence in minority groups and its associations with mortality across various causes including cancer.

Association of Acute Respiratory Disease Events with Quantitative Interstitial Abnormality Progression at CT in Individuals with a History of Smoking.

Background Acute respiratory disease (ARD) events are often thought to be airway-disease related, but some may be related to quantitative interstitial abnormalities (QIAs), which are subtle parenchymal abnormalities on CT scans associated with morbidity and mortality in individuals with a smoking history. Purpose To determine whether QIA progression at CT is associated with ARD and severe ARD events in individuals with a history of smoking. Materials and Methods This secondary analysis of a prospective study included individuals with a 10 pack-years or greater smoking history recruited from multiple centers between November 2007 and July 2017. QIA progression was assessed between baseline (visit 1) and 5-year follow-up (visit 2) chest CT scans. Episodes of ARD were defined as increased cough or dyspnea lasting 48 hours and requiring antibiotics or corticosteroids, whereas severe ARD episodes were those requiring an emergency room visit or hospitalization. Episodes were recorded via questionnaires completed every 3 to 6 months. Multivariable logistic regression and zero-inflated negative binomial regression models adjusted for comorbidities (eg, emphysema, small airway disease) were used to assess the association between QIA progression and episodes between visits 1 and 2 (intercurrent) and after visit 2 (subsequent). Results A total of 3972 participants (mean age at baseline, 60.7 years ± 8.6 [SD]; 2120 [53.4%] women) were included. Annual percentage QIA progression was associated with increased odds of one or more intercurrent (odds ratio [OR] = 1.29 [95% CI: 1.06, 1.56]; P = .01) and subsequent (OR = 1.26 [95% CI: 1.05, 1.52]; P = .02) severe ARD events. Participants in the highest quartile of QIA progression (≥1.2%) had more frequent intercurrent ARD (incidence rate ratio [IRR] = 1.46 [95% CI: 1.14, 1.86]; P = .003) and severe ARD (IRR = 1.79 [95% CI: 1.18, 2.73]; P = .006) events than those in the lowest quartile (≤-1.7%). Conclusion QIA progression was independently associated with higher odds of severe ARD events during and after radiographic progression, with higher frequency of intercurrent severe events in those with faster progression. Clinical trial registration no. NCT00608764 © RSNA, 2024 Supplemental material is available for this article. See also the editorial by Little in this issue.

Air Pollution Exposure and Interstitial Lung Features in SPIROMICS Participants with Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease.

Rationale: It is unknown whether air pollution is associated with radiographic features of interstitial lung disease in individuals with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). Objectives: To determine whether air pollution increases the prevalence of interstitial lung abnormalities (ILA) or percent high-attenuation areas (HAA) on computed tomography (CT) in individuals with a heavy smoking history and COPD. Methods: We performed a cross-sectional study of SPIROMICS (Subpopulations and Intermediate Outcome Measures in COPD Study), focused on current or former smokers with COPD. Ten-year exposure to particulate matter ⩽2.5 µm in aerodynamic diameter (PM2.5), nitrogen oxides (NOx), nitrogen dioxide (NO2), and ozone before enrollment CT (completed between 2010 and 2015) were estimated with validated spatiotemporal models at residential addresses. We applied adjusted multivariable modified Poisson regression and linear regression to investigate associations between pollution exposure and relative risk (RR) of ILA or increased percent HAA (between -600 and -250 Hounsfield units), respectively. We assessed for effect modification by MUC5B-promoter polymorphism (variant allele carriers GT or TT vs. GG at rs3705950), smoking status, sex, and percent emphysema. Results: Among 1,272 participants with COPD assessed for HAA, 424 were current smokers, and 249 were carriers of the variant MUC5B allele. A total of 519 participants were assessed for ILA. We found no association between pollution exposure and ILA or HAA. Associations between pollutant exposures and risk of ILA were modified by the presence of MUC5B polymorphism (P value interaction term for NOx = 0.04 and PM2.5 = 0.05) and smoking status (P value interaction term for NOx = 0.05; NO2 = 0.01; and ozone = 0.05). With higher exposure to NOx and PM2.5, MUC5B variant carriers had an increased risk of ILA (RR per 26 ppb NOx, 2.41; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.97-6.0; and RR per 4 µg ⋅ m-3 PM2.5, 1.43; 95% CI, 0.93-2.2, respectively). With higher exposure to NO2, former smokers had an increased risk of ILA (RR per 10 ppb, 1.64; 95% CI, 1.0-2.7). Conclusions: Exposure to ambient air pollution was not associated with interstitial features on CT in this population of heavy smokers with COPD. MUC5B modified the association between pollution and ILA, suggesting that gene-environment interactions may influence prevalence of interstitial lung features in COPD.

Association between CFTR modulators and changes in iron deficiency markers in cystic fibrosis.

BACKGROUND: Iron deficiency (ID) is a common extrapulmonary manifestation in cystic fibrosis (CF). CF transmembrane conductance regulator (CFTR) modulator therapies, particularly highly-effective modulator therapy (HEMT), have drastically improved health status in a majority of people with CF. We hypothesize that CFTR modulator use is associated with improved markers of ID. METHODS: In a multicenter retrospective cohort study across 4 United States CF centers 2012-2022, the association between modulator therapies and ID laboratory outcomes was estimated using multivariable linear mixed effects models overall and by key subgroups. Summary statistics describe the prevalence and trends of ID, defined a priori as transferrin saturation (TSAT) <20 % or serum iron <60 µg/dL (<10.7 µmol/L). RESULTS: A total of 568 patients with 2571 person-years of follow-up were included in analyses. Compared to off modulator therapy, HEMT was associated with +8.4 % TSAT (95 % confidence interval [CI], +6.3-10.6 %; p < 0.0001) and +34.4 µg/dL serum iron (95 % CI, +26.7-42.1 µg/dL; p < 0.0001) overall; +5.4 % TSAT (95 % CI, +2.8-8.0 %; p = 0.0001) and +22.1 µg/dL serum iron (95 % CI, +13.5-30.8 µg/dL; p < 0.0001) in females; and +11.4 % TSAT (95 % CI, +7.9-14.8 %; p < 0.0001) and +46.0 µg/dL serum iron (95 % CI, +33.3-58.8 µg/dL; p < 0.0001) in males. Ferritin was not different in those taking modulator therapy relative to off modulator therapy. Hemoglobin was overall higher with use of modulator therapy. The prevalence of ID was high throughout the study period (32.8 % in those treated with HEMT). CONCLUSIONS: ID remains a prevalent comorbidity in CF, despite availability of HEMT. Modulator use, particularly of HEMT, is associated with improved markers for ID (TSAT, serum iron) and anemia (hemoglobin).

Risk Factors for Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease Exacerbations among Individuals without a History of Recent Exacerbations: A COPDGene Analysis.

Rationale: Acute exacerbations of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (AE-COPD) are detrimental events in the natural history of COPD, but the risk factors associated with future exacerbations in the absence of a history of recent exacerbations are not fully understood. Objectives: To identify risk factors for COPD exacerbations among participants in the Genetic Epidemiology of COPD Study (COPDGene) without a history of exacerbation in the previous year. Methods: We identified participants with a smoking history enrolled in COPDGene who had COPD (defined as forced expiratory volume in 1 second [FEV1]/forced vital capacity < 0.70), no exacerbation in the year before their second study site visit, and who completed at least one longitudinal follow-up questionnaire in the following 36 months. We used univariable and multivariable zero-inflated negative binomial regression models to identify risk factors associated with increased rates of exacerbation. Each risk factor's regression coefficient (ß) was rounded to the nearest 0.25 and incorporated into a graduated risk score. Results: Among the 1,528 participants with a smoking history and COPD enrolled in COPDGene without exacerbation in the year before their second study site visit, 508 participants (33.2%) had at least one moderate or severe exacerbation in the 36 months studied. Gastroesophageal reflux disease, chronic bronchitis, high symptom burden (as measured by Modified Medical Research Council Dyspnea Scale and COPD Assessment Test), and lower FEV1% predicted were associated with an increased risk of exacerbation. Each 1-point increase in our graduated risk score was associated with a 25-30% increase in exacerbation rate in the 36 months studied. Conclusions: In patients with COPD without a recent history of exacerbations, gastroesophageal reflux disease, chronic bronchitis, high symptom burden, and lower lung function are associated with increased risk of future exacerbation using a simple risk score that can be used in clinical practice.

Plasma metabolomics and quantitative interstitial abnormalities in ever-smokers.

BACKGROUND: Quantitative interstitial abnormalities (QIA) are an automated computed tomography (CT) finding of early parenchymal lung disease, associated with worse lung function, reduced exercise capacity, increased respiratory symptoms, and death. The metabolomic perturbations associated with QIA are not well known. We sought to identify plasma metabolites associated with QIA in smokers. We also sought to identify shared and differentiating metabolomics features between QIA and emphysema, another smoking-related advanced radiographic abnormality. METHODS: In 928 former and current smokers in the Genetic Epidemiology of COPD cohort, we measured QIA and emphysema using an automated local density histogram method and generated metabolite profiles from plasma samples using liquid chromatography-mass spectrometry (Metabolon). We assessed the associations between metabolite levels and QIA using multivariable linear regression models adjusted for age, sex, body mass index, smoking status, pack-years, and inhaled corticosteroid use, at a Benjamini-Hochberg False Discovery Rate p-value of ≤ 0.05. Using multinomial regression models adjusted for these covariates, we assessed the associations between metabolite levels and the following CT phenotypes: QIA-predominant, emphysema-predominant, combined-predominant, and neither- predominant. Pathway enrichment analyses were performed using MetaboAnalyst. RESULTS: We found 85 metabolites significantly associated with QIA, with overrepresentation of the nicotinate and nicotinamide, histidine, starch and sucrose, pyrimidine, phosphatidylcholine, lysophospholipid, and sphingomyelin pathways. These included metabolites involved in inflammation and immune response, extracellular matrix remodeling, surfactant, and muscle cachexia. There were 75 metabolites significantly different between QIA-predominant and emphysema-predominant phenotypes, with overrepresentation of the phosphatidylethanolamine, nicotinate and nicotinamide, aminoacyl-tRNA, arginine, proline, alanine, aspartate, and glutamate pathways. CONCLUSIONS: Metabolomic correlates may lend insight to the biologic perturbations and pathways that underlie clinically meaningful quantitative CT measurements like QIA in smokers.

Longitudinal Follow-Up of Participants With Tobacco Exposure and Preserved Spirometry.

Importance: People who smoked cigarettes may experience respiratory symptoms without spirometric airflow obstruction. These individuals are typically excluded from chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) trials and lack evidence-based therapies. Objective: To define the natural history of persons with tobacco exposure and preserved spirometry (TEPS) and symptoms (symptomatic TEPS). Design, Setting, and Participants: SPIROMICS II was an extension of SPIROMICS I, a multicenter study of persons aged 40 to 80 years who smoked cigarettes (>20 pack-years) with or without COPD and controls without tobacco exposure or airflow obstruction. Participants were enrolled in SPIROMICS I and II from November 10, 2010, through July 31, 2015, and followed up through July 31, 2021. Exposures: Participants in SPIROMICS I underwent spirometry, 6-minute walk distance testing, assessment of respiratory symptoms, and computed tomography of the chest at yearly visits for 3 to 4 years. Participants in SPIROMICS II had 1 additional in-person visit 5 to 7 years after enrollment in SPIROMICS I. Respiratory symptoms were assessed with the COPD Assessment Test (range, 0 to 40; higher scores indicate more severe symptoms). Participants with symptomatic TEPS had normal spirometry (postbronchodilator ratio of forced expiratory volume in the first second [FEV1] to forced vital capacity >0.70) and COPD Assessment Test scores of 10 or greater. Participants with asymptomatic TEPS had normal spirometry and COPD Assessment Test scores of less than 10. Patient-reported respiratory symptoms and exacerbations were assessed every 4 months via phone calls. Main Outcomes and Measures: The primary outcome was assessment for accelerated decline in lung function (FEV1) in participants with symptomatic TEPS vs asymptomatic TEPS. Secondary outcomes included development of COPD defined by spirometry, respiratory symptoms, rates of respiratory exacerbations, and progression of computed tomographic-defined airway wall thickening or emphysema. Results: Of 1397 study participants, 226 had symptomatic TEPS (mean age, 60.1 [SD, 9.8] years; 134 were women [59%]) and 269 had asymptomatic TEPS (mean age, 63.1 [SD, 9.1] years; 134 were women [50%]). At a median follow-up of 5.76 years, the decline in FEV1 was -31.3 mL/y for participants with symptomatic TEPS vs -38.8 mL/y for those with asymptomatic TEPS (between-group difference, -7.5 mL/y [95% CI, -16.6 to 1.6 mL/y]). The cumulative incidence of COPD was 33.0% among participants with symptomatic TEPS vs 31.6% among those with asymptomatic TEPS (hazard ratio, 1.05 [95% CI, 0.76 to 1.46]). Participants with symptomatic TEPS had significantly more respiratory exacerbations than those with asymptomatic TEPS (0.23 vs 0.08 exacerbations per person-year, respectively; rate ratio, 2.38 [95% CI, 1.71 to 3.31], P < .001). Conclusions and Relevance: Participants with symptomatic TEPS did not have accelerated rates of decline in FEV1 or increased incidence of COPD vs those with asymptomatic TEPS, but participants with symptomatic TEPS did experience significantly more respiratory exacerbations over a median follow-up of 5.8 years.

Indoor Pollution and Lung Function Decline in Current and Former Smokers: SPIROMICS AIR.

Rationale: Indoor pollutants have been associated with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease morbidity, but it is unclear whether they contribute to disease progression. Objectives: We aimed to determine whether indoor particulate matter (PM) and nitrogen dioxide (NO2) are associated with lung function decline among current and former smokers. Methods: Of the 2,382 subjects with a history of smoking in SPIROMICS AIR, 1,208 participants had complete information to estimate indoor PM and NO2, using individual-based prediction models, in relation to measured spirometry at two or more clinic visits. We used a three-way interaction model between time, pollutant, and smoking status and assessed the indoor pollutant-associated difference in FEV1 decline separately using a generalized linear mixed model. Measurements and Main Results: Participants had an average rate of FEV1 decline of 60.3 ml/yr for those currently smoking compared with 35.2 ml/yr for those who quit. The association of indoor PM with FEV1 decline differed by smoking status. Among former smokers, every 10 µg/m3 increase in estimated indoor PM was associated with an additional 10 ml/yr decline in FEV1 (P = 0.044). Among current smokers, FEV1 decline did not differ by indoor PM. The results of indoor NO2 suggest trends similar to those for PM ⩽2.5 µm in aerodynamic diameter. Conclusions: Former smokers with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease who live in homes with high estimated PM have accelerated lung function loss, and those in homes with low PM have lung function loss similar to normal aging. In-home PM exposure may contribute to variability in lung function decline in people who quit smoking and may be a modifiable exposure.

Airway-Occluding Mucus Plugs and Mortality in Patients With Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease.

Importance: Airway mucus plugs are common in patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD); however, the association of airway mucus plugging and mortality in patients with COPD is unknown. Objective: To determine whether airway mucus plugs identified on chest computed tomography (CT) were associated with increased all-cause mortality. Design, Setting, and Participants: Observational retrospective analysis of prospectively collected data of patients with a diagnosis of COPD in the Genetic Epidemiology of COPD cohort. Participants were non-Hispanic Black or White individuals, aged 45 to 80 years, who smoked at least 10 pack-years. Participants were enrolled at 21 centers across the US between November 2007 and April 2011 and were followed up through August 31, 2022. Exposures: Mucus plugs that completely occluded airways on chest CT scans, identified in medium- to large-sized airways (ie, approximately 2- to 10-mm lumen diameter) and categorized as affecting 0, 1 to 2, or 3 or more lung segments. Main Outcomes and Measures: The primary outcome was all-cause mortality, assessed with proportional hazard regression analysis. Models were adjusted for age, sex, race and ethnicity, body mass index, pack-years smoked, current smoking status, forced expiratory volume in the first second of expiration, and CT measures of emphysema and airway disease. Results: Among the 4483 participants with COPD, 4363 were included in the primary analysis (median age, 63 years [IQR, 57-70 years]; 44% were women). A total of 2585 (59.3%), 953 (21.8%), and 825 (18.9%) participants had mucus plugs in 0, 1 to 2, and 3 or more lung segments, respectively. During a median 9.5-year follow-up, 1769 participants (40.6%) died. The mortality rates were 34.0% (95% CI, 32.2%-35.8%), 46.7% (95% CI, 43.5%-49.9%), and 54.1% (95% CI, 50.7%-57.4%) in participants who had mucus plugs in 0, 1 to 2, and 3 or more lung segments, respectively. The presence of mucus plugs in 1 to 2 vs 0 and 3 or more vs 0 lung segments was associated with an adjusted hazard ratio of death of 1.15 (95% CI, 1.02-1.29) and 1.24 (95% CI, 1.10-1.41), respectively. Conclusions and Relevance: In participants with COPD, the presence of mucus plugs that obstructed medium- to large-sized airways was associated with higher all-cause mortality compared with patients without mucus plugging on chest CT scans.

Machine learning for screening of at-risk, mild and moderate COPD patients at risk of FEV1 decline: results from COPDGene and SPIROMICS.

Purpose: The purpose of this study was to train and validate machine learning models for predicting rapid decline of forced expiratory volume in 1 s (FEV1) in individuals with a smoking history at-risk-for chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), Global Initiative for Chronic Obstructive Lung Disease (GOLD 0), or with mild-to-moderate (GOLD 1-2) COPD. We trained multiple models to predict rapid FEV1 decline using demographic, clinical and radiologic biomarker data. Training and internal validation data were obtained from the COPDGene study and prediction models were validated against the SPIROMICS cohort. Methods: We used GOLD 0-2 participants (n = 3,821) from COPDGene (60.0 ± 8.8 years, 49.9% male) for variable selection and model training. Accelerated lung function decline was defined as a mean drop in FEV1% predicted of > 1.5%/year at 5-year follow-up. We built logistic regression models predicting accelerated decline based on 22 chest CT imaging biomarker, pulmonary function, symptom, and demographic features. Models were validated using n = 885 SPIROMICS subjects (63.6 ± 8.6 years, 47.8% male). Results: The most important variables for predicting FEV1 decline in GOLD 0 participants were bronchodilator responsiveness (BDR), post bronchodilator FEV1% predicted (FEV1.pp.post), and CT-derived expiratory lung volume; among GOLD 1 and 2 subjects, they were BDR, age, and PRMlower lobes fSAD. In the validation cohort, GOLD 0 and GOLD 1-2 full variable models had significant predictive performance with AUCs of 0.620 ± 0.081 (p = 0.041) and 0.640 ± 0.059 (p < 0.001). Subjects with higher model-derived risk scores had significantly greater odds of FEV1 decline than those with lower scores. Conclusion: Predicting FEV1 decline in at-risk patients remains challenging but a combination of clinical, physiologic and imaging variables provided the best performance across two COPD cohorts.

Causes of and Clinical Features Associated with Death in Tobacco Cigarette Users by Lung Function Impairment.

Rationale: Cigarette smoking contributes to the risk of death through different mechanisms. Objectives: To determine how causes of and clinical features associated with death vary in tobacco cigarette users by lung function impairment. Methods: We stratified current and former tobacco cigarette users enrolled in Genetic Epidemiology of Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (COPDGene) into normal spirometry, PRISm (Preserved Ratio Impaired Spirometry), Global Initiative for Chronic Obstructive Lung Disease (GOLD) 1-2 COPD, and GOLD 3-4 COPD. Deaths were identified via longitudinal follow-up and Social Security Death Index search. Causes of death were adjudicated after a review of death certificates, medical records, and next-of-kin interviews. We tested associations between baseline clinical variables and all-cause mortality using multivariable Cox proportional hazards models. Measurements and Main Results: Over a 10.1-year median follow-up, 2,200 deaths occurred among 10,132 participants (age 59.5 ± 9.0 yr; 46.6% women). Death from cardiovascular disease was most frequent in PRISm (31% of deaths). Lung cancer deaths were most frequent in GOLD 1-2 (18% of deaths vs. 9-11% in other groups). Respiratory deaths outpaced competing causes of death in GOLD 3-4, particularly when BODE index ⩾7. St. George's Respiratory Questionnaire score ⩾25 was associated with higher mortality in all groups: Hazard ratio (HR), 1.48 (1.20-1.84) normal spirometry; HR, 1.40 (1.05-1.87) PRISm; HR, 1.80 (1.49-2.17) GOLD 1-2; HR, 1.65 (1.26-2.17) GOLD 3-4. History of respiratory exacerbations was associated with higher mortality in GOLD 1-2 and GOLD 3-4, quantitative emphysema in GOLD 1-2, and airway wall thickness in PRISm and GOLD 3-4. Conclusions: Leading causes of death vary by lung function impairment in tobacco cigarette users. Worse respiratory-related quality of life is associated with all-cause mortality regardless of lung function.

Impact of Bronchiectasis on COPD Severity and Alpha-1 Antitrypsin Deficiency as a Risk Factor in Individuals with a Heavy Smoking History.

Rationale: Bronchiectasis is common among those with heavy smoking histories, but risk factors for bronchiectasis, including alpha-1 antitrypsin deficiency, and its implications for COPD severity are uncharacterized in such individuals. Objectives: To characterize the impact of bronchiectasis on COPD and explore alpha-1antitrypsin as a risk factor for bronchiectasis. Methods: SubPopulations and InteRmediate Outcome Measures In COPD Study (SPIROMICS) participants (N=914; ages 40-80 years; ≥20-pack-year smoking) had high-resolution computed tomography (CT) scans interpreted visually for bronchiectasis, based on airway dilation without fibrosis or cicatrization. We performed regression-based models of bronchiectasis with clinical outcomes and quantitative CT measures. We deeply sequenced the gene encoding -alpha-1 antitrypsin, SERPINA1, in 835 participants to test for rare variants, focusing on the PiZ genotype (Glu366Lys, rs28929474). Measurements and Main Results: We identified bronchiectasis in 365 (40%) participants, more frequently in women (45% versus 36%, p=0.0045), older participants (mean age=66[standard deviation (SD)=8.3] versus 64[SD=9.1] years, p=0.0083), and those with lower lung function (forced expiratory volume in 1 second [FEV1 ] percentage predicted=66%[SD=27] versus 77%[SD=25], p<0.0001; FEV1 to forced vital capacity [FVC] ratio=0.54[0.17] versus 0.63[SD=0.16], p<0.0001). Participants with bronchiectasis had greater emphysema (%voxels ≤-950 Hounsfield units, 11%[SD=12] versus 6.3%[SD=9], p<0.0001) and parametric response mapping functional small airways disease (26[SD=15] versus 19[SD=15], p<0.0001). Bronchiectasis was more frequent in the combined PiZZ and PiMZ genotype groups compared to those without PiZ, PiS, or other rare pathogenic variants (N=21 of 40 [52%] versus N=283 of 707[40%], odds ratio [OR]=1.97; 95% confidence interval [CI]=1.002, 3.90, p=0.049), an association attributed to White individuals (OR=1.98; 95%CI = 0.9956, 3.9; p=0.051). Conclusions: Bronchiectasis was common in those with heavy smoking histories and was associated with detrimental clinical and radiographic outcomes. Our findings support alpha-1antitrypsin guideline recommendations to screen for alpha-1 antitrypsin deficiency in an appropriate bronchiectasis subgroup with a significant smoking history.

Impact of Marijuana Smoking on COPD Progression in a Cohort of Middle-Aged and Older Persons.

Background: Limited data are available regarding marijuana smoking's impact on the development or progression of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) in middle-aged or older adults with a variable history of tobacco cigarette smoking. Methods: We divided ever-tobacco smoking participants in the SubPopulations and InteRmediate Outcomes In COPD Study (SPIROMICS) into 3 groups based on self-reported marijuana use: current, former, or never marijuana smokers (CMSs, FMSs or NMSs, respectively). Longitudinal data were analyzed in participants with ≥2 visits over a period of ≥52 weeks. Measurements: We compared CMSs, FMSs, and NMSs, and those with varying amounts of lifetime marijuana use. Mixed effects linear regression models were used to analyze changes in spirometry, symptoms, health status, and radiographic metrics; zero-inflated negative binomial models were used for exacerbation rates. All models were adjusted for age, sex, race, baseline tobacco smoking amount, and forced expiratory volume in 1 second (FEV1) %predicted. Results: Most participants were followed for ≥4 years. Annual rates of change in FEV1, incident COPD, respiratory symptoms, health status, radiographic extent of emphysema or air trapping, and total or severe exacerbations were not different between CMSs or FMSs versus NMSs or between those with any lifetime amount of marijuana use versus NMSs. Conclusions: Among SPIROMICS participants with or without COPD, neither former nor current marijuana smoking of any lifetime amount was associated with evidence of COPD progression or its development. Because of our study's limitations, these findings underscore the need for further studies to better understand longer-term effects of marijuana smoking in COPD.

A blood and bronchoalveolar lavage protein signature of rapid FEV1 decline in smoking-associated COPD.

Accelerated progression of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) is associated with increased risks of hospitalization and death. Prognostic insights into mechanisms and markers of progression could facilitate development of disease-modifying therapies. Although individual biomarkers exhibit some predictive value, performance is modest and their univariate nature limits network-level insights. To overcome these limitations and gain insights into early pathways associated with rapid progression, we measured 1305 peripheral blood and 48 bronchoalveolar lavage proteins in individuals with COPD [n = 45, mean initial forced expiratory volume in one second (FEV1) 75.6 ± 17.4% predicted]. We applied a data-driven analysis pipeline, which enabled identification of protein signatures that predicted individuals at-risk for accelerated lung function decline (FEV1 decline ≥ 70 mL/year) ~ 6 years later, with high accuracy. Progression signatures suggested that early dysregulation in elements of the complement cascade is associated with accelerated decline. Our results propose potential biomarkers and early aberrant signaling mechanisms driving rapid progression in COPD.

Lung Imaging in COPD Part 2: Emerging Concepts.

The diagnosis, prognostication, and differentiation of phenotypes of COPD can be facilitated by CT scan imaging of the chest. CT scan imaging of the chest is a prerequisite for lung volume reduction surgery and lung transplantation. Quantitative analysis can be used to evaluate extent of disease progression. Evolving imaging techniques include micro-CT scan, ultra-high-resolution and photon-counting CT scan imaging, and MRI. Potential advantages of these newer techniques include improved resolution, prediction of reversibility, and obviation of radiation exposure. This article discusses important emerging techniques in imaging patients with COPD. The clinical usefulness of these emerging techniques as they stand today are tabulated for the benefit of the practicing pulmonologist.