The effect of residential greenness on cardiovascular mortality from a large cohort in South China: An in-depth analysis of effect modification by multiple demographic and lifestyle characteristics.

BACKGROUND: The potential for residential greenness to improve cardiovascular health through both physical and psychological mechanisms is well recognized. However, evidence from rapidly urbanizing developing countries and cohort-based causal inference approaches, remains limited. We aim to examine the effect of residential greenness and time to cardiovascular mortality in South China. METHODS: We utilized data from a community-based population survey involving 748,209 participants at baseline from 2009 to 2015, followed up until 2020. Residential greenness exposure was assessed by the annual Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) in the 500 m radius of each participant's residence. We used time-varying proportional hazard Cox models coupled with inverse probability weighting to fit marginal structural models and obtain hazard ratios (HRs) for cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality after adjusting for confounders. Multiple effect modifiers on both additive and multiplicative scales were further explored. RESULTS: A total of 15,139 CVD-related deaths were identified during a median of 7.9 years of follow-up. A protective effect was found between higher greenness exposure and reduced CVD mortality, with a 9.3 % lower rate of total CVD mortality (HR 0.907, 95 % CI 0.859-0.957) based on a 0.1 increase in annual average NDVI. Demographic (age, marital status) and lifestyle factors (smoking, drinking status) were found to modify the association between residential greenness and CVD mortality (all P interaction values < 0.05 or 95 %CI for RERI excluded the value 0). Notably, this effect was more pronounced among older adults, married, and individuals having healthier lifestyles, indicating a greater benefit from greenness for these subgroups. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings support a causal link between increased residential greenness exposure and a reduced risk of CVD mortality in South China with marked heterogenous effects, which has public health implications for cultivating greener urban environments to mitigate the impact of CVD within the context of rapid urbanization.

How long-term PM exposure may affect all-site cancer mortality: Evidence from a large cohort in southern China.

BACKGROUND: Evidence of a potential causal link between long-term exposure to particulate matter (PM) and all-site cancer mortality from large population cohorts remained limited and suffered from residual confounding issues with traditional statistical methods. AIMS: We aimed to examine the potential causal relationship between long-term PM exposure and all-site cancer mortality in South China using causal inference methods. METHODS: We used a cohort in southern China that recruited 580,757 participants from 2009 through 2015 and tracked until 2020. Annual averages of PM1, PM2.5, and PM10 concentrations were generated with validated spatiotemporal models. We employed a causal inference approach, the Marginal Structural Cox model, based on observational data to evaluate the association between long-term exposure to PM and all-site cancer mortality. RESULTS: With an increase of 1 µg/m³ in PM1, PM2.5, and PM10, the hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence interval (CI) for all-site cancer were 1.033 (95% CI: 1.025-1.041), 1.032 (95% CI: 1.027-1.038), and 1.020 (95% CI: 1.016-1.025), respectively. The HRs (95% CI) for digestive system and respiratory system cancer mortality associated with each 1 µg/m³ increase in PM1 were 1.022 (1.009-1.035) and 1.053 (1.038-1.068), respectively. In addition, inactive participants, who never smoked, or who lived in areas of low surrounding greenness were more susceptible to the effects of PM exposure, the HRs (95% CI) for all-site cancer mortality were 1.042 (1.031-1.053), 1.041 (1.032-1.050), and 1.0473 (1.025-1.070) for every 1 µg/m³ increase in PM1, respectively. The effect of PM1 tended to be more pronounced in the low-exposure group than in the general population, and multiple sensitivity analyses confirmed the robustness of the results. CONCLUSION: This study provided evidence that long-term exposure to PM may elevate the risk of all-site cancer mortality, emphasizing the potential health benefits of improving air quality for cancer prevention.

Global Burden and Trends of Primary Liver Cancer Attributable to Comorbid Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus Among People Living with Hepatitis B: An Observational Trend Study from 1990 to 2019.

BACKGROUND: Type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) increases the risk of liver cancer among people living with hepatitis B virus (HBV). Our study aimed to estimate the global burden and trends of liver cancer attributable to comorbid T2DM among people living with HBV from 1990 to 2019. METHODS: We calculated the population attributable fractions (PAFs) of liver cancer attributable to comorbid T2DM among the burden of HBV-related liver cancer. We applied the PAFs to the burden of HBV-related liver cancer derived from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2019 database to obtain the burden of liver cancer attributable to HBV-T2DM comorbidity. The prevalence, disability-adjusted life year (DALY), and deaths of liver cancer attributable to the comorbidity were assessed at the global, regional, and country levels and then stratified by the sociodemographic index (SDI), sex, and age group. Estimated annual percentage changes (EAPCs) were calculated to quantify the temporal trends. RESULTS: In 2019, the global age-standardized prevalence and DALY rates of liver cancer attributable to HBV-T2DM comorbidity were 9.9 (8.4-11.5) and 182.4 (154.9-212.7) per 10,000,000 individuals, respectively. High-income Asia Pacific and East Asia had the highest age-standardized prevalence and DALY rates of liver cancer attributable to HBV-T2DM comorbidity, respectively. From 1990 to 2019, age-standardized prevalence and DALY rates increased in 16 out of 21 GBD regions. High-income North America had the largest annual increases in both age-standardized prevalence rates (EAPC = 6.07; 95% UI, 5.59 to 6.56) and DALY rates (EAPC = 4.77; 95% UI, 4.35 to 5.20), followed by Australasia and Central Asia. Across all SDI regions, the high SDI region exhibited the most rapid increase in age-standardized prevalence and DALY rates from 1990 to 2019. Additionally, men had consistently higher disease burdens than women across all age groups. The patterns of mortality burden and trends are similar to those of DALYs. CONCLUSIONS: The burden of liver cancer attributable to comorbid T2DM among people living with HBV has exhibited an increasing trend across most regions over the last three decades. Tailored prevention strategies targeting T2DM should be implemented among individuals living with HBV.

Assessing the impact of comorbid type 2 diabetes mellitus on the disease burden of chronic hepatitis B virus infection and its complications in China from 2006 to 2030: a modeling study.

BACKGROUND: China bears a high burden of both hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection and type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM). T2DM accelerates the progression of liver disease among individuals infected with HBV. This study aims to assess the excess disease burden caused by comorbid T2DM among HBV-infected individuals in China. METHODS: We estimated the disease burden of HBV and its complications in China from 2006 to 2030 using individual-based Markov models. The baseline population consisted of 93 million HBV-infected individuals derived from the 2006 National Serological Epidemiological Survey. We developed two models: one incorporated the impact of T2DM on the disease progression of HBV infection, while the other did not consider the impact of T2DM. By comparing the outcomes between these two models, we estimated the excess disease burden attributable to comorbid T2DM among HBV-infected individuals. RESULTS: The incidence of severe HBV complications, including cirrhosis, hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), and liver-related deaths, exhibited an increasing trend from 2006 to 2030 among the Chinese HBV-infected population. Comorbid T2DM increased the annual incidence and cumulative cases of severe HBV complications. From 2006 to 2022, comorbid T2DM caused 791,000 (11.41%), 244,000 (9.27%), 377,000 (8.78%), and 796,000 (12.19%) excess cases of compensated cirrhosis, decompensated cirrhosis, HCC, and liver-related deaths, respectively. From 2023 to 2030, comorbid T2DM is projected to result in an 8.69% excess in severe HBV complications and an 8.95% increase in liver-related deaths. Among individuals aged 60 and older at baseline, comorbid T2DM led to a 21.68% excess in severe HBV complications and a 28.70% increase in liver-related deaths from 2006 to 2022, with projections indicating a further 20.76% increase in severe HBV complications and an 18.31% rise in liver-related deaths over the next seven years. CONCLUSIONS: Comorbid T2DM imposes a substantial disease burden on individuals with HBV infection in China. Healthcare providers and health policymakers should develop and implement tailored strategies for the effective management and control of T2DM in individuals with HBV infection.

Potential causal links and mediation pathway between urban greenness and lung cancer mortality: Result from a large cohort (2009 to 2020).

Urban greenness, as a vital component of the urban environment, plays a critical role in mitigating the adverse effects of rapid urbanization and supporting urban sustainability. However, the causal links between urban greenness and lung cancer mortality and its potential causal pathway remain poorly understood. Based on a prospective community-based cohort with 581,785 adult participants in southern China, we applied a doubly robust Cox proportional hazard model to estimate the causal associations between urban greenness exposure and lung cancer mortality. A general multiple mediation analysis method was utilized to further assess the potential mediating roles of various factors including particulate matter (PM1, PM2.5-1, and PM10-2.5), temperature, physical activity, and body mass index (BMI). We observed that each interquartile range (IQR: 0.06) increment in greenness exposure was inversely associated with lung cancer mortality, with a hazard ratio (HR) of 0.89 (95 % CI: 0.83, 0.96). The relationship between greenness and lung cancer mortality might be partially mediated by particulate matter, temperature, and physical activity, yielding a total indirect effect of 0.826 (95 % CI: 0.769, 0.887) for each IQR increase in greenness exposure. Notably, the protective effect of greenness against lung cancer mortality could be achieved primarily by reducing the particulate matter concentration.

The role of illness-related cognition in the relationships between resilience and depression/anxiety in nasopharyngeal cancer patients.

OBJECTIVE: Resilience has been reported as an important predictor of better mental health and prognoses in cancer patients, while its mechanisms were not clearly elucidated. In this study, we surveyed a large sample of nasopharyngeal carcinoma patients to investigate the mediating role of illness-related cognition (illness perception, stigma and meaning in life) on the associations between resilience and symptoms of anxiety and depression. METHODS: This cross-sectional study involved 773 participants diagnosed with nasopharyngeal carcinoma. Participants completed a self-reported structured questionnaire to assess their illness perception, stigma and meaning in life, resilience and symptoms of anxiety and depression. Structural equation models (SEM) were employed to explore the relationship between resilience and symptoms of anxiety and depression in the entire sample, as well as in two subgroups: Subgroup I (0-1 year since diagnosis), and Subgroup II (over 1 year since diagnosis). RESULTS: In the entire sample, after adjusting for potential confounders, illness perception, stigma and meaning in life were found to mediate the protective effect of resilience on symptoms of depression (mediating effect proportion: 65.25%) and anxiety (mediating effect proportion: 67.63%). In Subgroup I, direct effects were dominant in the associations between resilience and symptoms of anxiety (mediating effect proportion: 37.95%) and depression (mediating effect proportion: 29.13%). However, in Subgroup II, the associations between resilience and symptoms of anxiety (mediating effect proportion: 98.92%) and depression (mediating effect proportion: 81.04%) were completely mediated. CONCLUSIONS: Our study suggests that direct and indirect effects of resilience on depression and anxiety dominate in early periods (0-1 year) and long-term periods (over 1 year) following the cancer diagnosis, respectively. The findings indicate that comprehensive intervention considering both the direct effect of resilience in early stages (e.g., health education prescription and social support groups) and the indirect effects of illness cognition in long-term periods (e.g., cognitive behavioral therapies) are likely to yield the most favorable outcomes for cancer patients.

Prevalence and trends of polypharmacy in U.S. adults, 1999-2018.

BACKGROUND: Polypharmacy is one of the most important health issues for its potential impacts on disease burden and healthcare costs. The aim of this study was to update a comprehensive picture of prevalence and trends in polypharmacy over 20 years in U.S. adults. METHODS: Participants included 55,081 adults aged ≥ 20 from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey, January 1, 1999, through December 31, 2018. The simultaneously use of ≥ 5 drugs in one individual was defined as polypharmacy. National prevalence and trends in polypharmacy were evaluated among U.S. adults within different demo-socioeconomic status and pre-existing diseases. RESULTS: From 1999-2000 to 2017-2018, the overall percentages of adults with polypharmacy remained on the rise, increasing from 8.2% (7.2-9.2%) to 17.1% (15.7-18.5%) (average annual percentage change [AAPC] = 2.9%, P = .001). The polypharmacy prevalence was considerably higher in the elderly (from 23.5% to 44.1%), in adults with heart disease (from 40.6% to 61.7%), and in adults with diabetes (from 36.3% to 57.7%). Also, we observed a greater increase rate of polypharmacy in men (AAPC = 4.1%, P < .001), in the Mexican American (AAPC = 6.3%, P < .001), and in the non-Hispanic Black (AAPC = 4.4%, P < .001). CONCLUSIONS: From 1999-2000 to 2017-2018, the prevalence of polypharmacy is continually increasing in U.S. adults. The polypharmacy was especially higher in the older, in patients with heart disease, or diabetes. The high prevalence urges the healthcare providers and health policymakers to manage polypharmacy among specific population groups.

Polypharmacy, chronic kidney disease, and mortality among older adults: A prospective study of National Health and nutrition examination survey, 1999-2018.

Introduction: Polypharmacy might contribute to a range of adverse outcomes, which could get worse in the elderly with chronic kidney disease (CKD). Evidence on polypharmacy, CKD, and mortality is scarce. We aimed to investigate the prospective association between polypharmacy, CKD and all-cause and cause-specific mortality in adults aged ≥65 years. Methods: A total of 13,513 adults from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Surveys were included, following up from 1999 to 2018 until December 31, 2019. The simultaneous use of ≥5 medications by one individual was defined as polypharmacy. Survey-weighted Cox proportional hazard models were used to estimate the hazard ratio (HRs) for mortality from all-cause, cardiovascular diseases (CVD), and cancer after adjusting for potential confounding factors. Results: Among the elderly with CKD, we identified 3,825 total deaths (1,325 CVD and 714 cancer) during a median follow-up of 7.7 years. Participants with polypharmacy had a 27% (HR = 1.27 [1.15, 1.39]) and 39% (HR = 1.39 [1.19, 1.62]) higher risk of all-cause and CVD mortality, respectively, but not for cancer mortality. Compared with the elderly with no polypharmacy and no CKD, the corresponding HRs (95%CIs) for all-cause mortality were 1.04 (0.96, 1.14) for those with no polypharmacy but CKD, 1.24 (1.11, 1.39) for with polypharmacy but no CKD, and 1.34 (1.21, 1.49) for those with both polypharmacy and CKD. A similar pattern was detected for CVD mortality. Discussion: Polypharmacy was associated with elevated risks of all-cause and CVD mortality among the elderly CKD patients. More evidence-based approaches should be promoted for the appropriate deprescribing in the older adults with CKD.

Interactions between long-term ambient particle exposures and lifestyle on the prevalence of hypertension and diabetes: insight from a large community-based survey.

INTRODUCTION: Evidence on the interaction of lifestyle and long-term ambient particle (PM) exposure on the prevalence of hypertension, diabetes, particularly their combined condition is limited. We investigate the associations between PM and these outcomes and whether the associations were modified by various lifestyles. METHODS: This was a large population-based survey during 2019-2021 in Southern China. The concentrations of PM were interpolated and assigned to participants by the residential address. Hypertension and diabetes status were from questionnaires and confirmed with the community health centres. Logistic regression was applied to examine the associations, followed by a comprehensive set of stratified analyses by the lifestyles including diet, smoking, drinking, sleeping and exercise. RESULTS: A total of 82 345 residents were included in the final analyses. For each 1 µg/m3 increase in PM2.5, the adjusted OR for the prevalence of hypertension, diabetes and their combined condition were 1.05 (95% CI 1.05 to 1.06), 1.07 (95% CI 1.06 to 1.08) and 1.05 (95% CI 1.04 to 1.06), respectively. We observed that the association between PM2.5 and the combined condition was greatest in the group with 4-8 unhealthy lifestyles (OR=1.09, 95% CI 1.06 to 1.13) followed by the group with 2-3 and those with 0-1 unhealthy lifestyle (P interaction=0.026). Similar results and trends were observed in PM10 and/or in those with hypertension or diabetes. Individuals who consumed alcohol, had inadequate sleep duration or had poor quality sleep were more vulnerable. CONCLUSION: Long-term PM exposure was associated with increased prevalence of hypertension, diabetes and their combined condition, and those with unhealthy lifestyles suffered greater risks of these conditions.

Projections of Lung Cancer Incidence by 2035 in 40 Countries Worldwide: Population-Based Study.

BACKGROUND: The global burden of lung cancer (LC) is increasing. Quantitative projections of the future LC burden in different world regions could help optimize the allocation of resources and provide a benchmark for evaluating LC prevention and control interventions. OBJECTIVE: We aimed to predict the future incidence of LC in 40 countries by 2035, with an emphasis on country- and sex-specific disparities. METHODS: Data on LC incidence from 1978 to 2012 were extracted from 126 cancer registries of 40 countries in Cancer Incidence in Five Continents Volumes V-XI and used for the projection. Age-standardized incidence rates (ASRs) per 100,000 person-years and the number of incident cases were predicted through 2035, using the NORDPRED age-period-cohort model. RESULTS: Global ASRs of the 40 studied countries were predicted to decrease by 23% (8.2/35.8) among males, from 35.8 per 100,000 person-years in 2010 to 27.6 in 2035, and increase by 2% (0.3/16.8) among females, from 16.8 in 2010 to 17.1 in 2035. The ASRs of LC among females are projected to continue increasing dramatically in most countries by 2035, with peaks after the 2020s in most European, Eastern Asian, and Oceanian countries, whereas the ASRs among males will continue to decline in almost all countries. The ASRs among females are predicted to almost reach those among males in Ireland, Norway, the United Kingdom, the Netherlands, Canada, the United States, and New Zealand in 2025 and in Slovenia in 2035 and even surpass those among males in Denmark in 2020 and in Brazil and Colombia in 2025. In 2035, the highest ASRs are projected to occur among males in Belarus (49.3) and among females in Denmark (36.8). The number of new cases in 40 countries is predicted to increase by 65.32% (858,000/1,314,000), from 1.31 million in 2010 to 2.17 million in 2035. China will have the largest number of new cases. CONCLUSIONS: LC incidence is expected to continue to increase through 2035 in most countries, making LC a major public health challenge worldwide. The ongoing transition in the epidemiology of LC highlights the need for resource redistribution and improved LC control measures to reduce future LC burden worldwide.

Morbidity, Mortality, and Pathologic Outcomes of Transanal Versus Laparoscopic Total Mesorectal Excision for Rectal Cancer Short-term Outcomes From a Multicenter Randomized Controlled Trial.

OBJECTIVE: To determine the morbidity, mortality, and pathologic outcomes of transanal total mesorectal resection (taTME) versus laparoscopic total mesorectal excision (laTME) among patients with rectal cancer with clinical stage I to III rectal cancer below the peritoneal reflection. BACKGROUND: Studies with sufficient numbers of patients allowing clinical acceptance of taTME for rectal cancer are lacking. Thus, we launched a randomized clinical trial to compare the safety and efficacy of taTME versus laTME. METHODS: A randomized, open-label, phase 3, noninferiority trial was performed at 16 different hospitals in 10 Chinese provinces. The primary endpoints were 3-year disease-free survival and 5-year overall survival. The morbidity and mortality within 30 days after surgery, and pathologic outcomes were compared based on a modified intention-to-treat principle; this analysis was preplanned. RESULTS: Between April 13, 2016, and June 1, 2021, 1115 patients were randomized 1:1 to receive taTME or laTME. After exclusion of 26 cases, modified intention-to-treat set of taTME versus laTME groups included 544 versus 545 patients. There were no significant differences between taTME and laTME groups in intraoperative complications [26 (4.8%) vs 33 (6.1%); difference, -1.3%; 95% confidence interval (CI), -4.2% to 1.7%; P =0.42], postoperative morbidity [73 (13.4%) vs 66 (12.1%); difference, 1.2%; 95% CI, -2.8% to 5.2%; P =0.53), or mortality [1 (0.2%) vs 1 (0.2%)]. Successful resection occurred in 538 (98.9%) versus 538 (98.7%) patients in taTME versus laTME groups (difference, 0.2%; 95% CI, -1.9% to 2.2%; P >0.99). CONCLUSIONS: Experienced surgeons can safely perform taTME in selected patients with rectal cancer.

Potential Gains in Health-Adjusted Life Expectancy by Reducing Burden of Noncommunicable Diseases in 188 Countries: A Population-Based Study.

OBJECTIVES: This article quantifies the potential gains in health-adjusted life expectancy for people aged 30 to 70 years (HALE[30-70]) by examining the reductions in disability in addition to premature mortality from noncommunicable diseases (NCDs). METHODS: We extracted data from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019 for 4 major NCDs (cancers, cardiovascular diseases, chronic respiratory diseases, and diabetes mellitus) in 188 countries from 2010 to 2019. Estimates of the potential gains in HALE[30-70] were based on a counterfactual analysis involving 3 alternative future scenarios: (1) achieve Sustainable Development Goals target 3.4 but do not make any progress on disability reduction, (2) achieve Sustainable Development Goals target 3.4 and eliminate NCD-related disability, and (3) eliminate all NCD-related mortality and disability. RESULTS: In all scenarios, the high-income group has the greatest potential gains in HALE[30-70], above the global average. For all specific causes, potential gains in HALE[30-70] decrease as income levels fall. Across these 3 scenarios, the potential gains in HALE[30-70] globally of reducing premature mortality for 4 major NCDs are 3.13 years, 4.53 years, and 7.32 years, respectively. In scenario A, all income groups have the greatest potential gains in HALE[30-70] from diabetes and chronic respiratory diseases. In scenarios B and C, the high-income group has the greatest potential gains in HALE[30-70] from cancer intervention, and the other income groups have the greatest potential gains in HALE[30-70] from cardiovascular diseases intervention. CONCLUSION: Reducing premature death and disability from 4 major NCDs at once and attaching equal importance to each lead to a sizable improvement in HALE[30-70].

Joint association of smoking and physical activity with mortality in elderly hypertensive patients: A Chinese population-based cohort study in 2007-2018.

Background: Although associations of physical activity and smoking with mortality have been well-established, the joint impact of physical activity and smoking on premature mortality among elderly hypertensive population was still unclear. This study aimed to assess association of physical activity, smoking, and their interaction with all-cause and cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality risk in elderly hypertensive patients. Methods: We included 125,978 Chinese hypertensive patients aged 60-85 years [mean (SD) age, 70.5 (6.9) years] who had records in electronic health information system of Minhang District of Shanghai, China in 2007-2015. Cox regression was used to estimate individual and joint association of smoking and physical activity on all-cause and CVD mortality. Interactions were measured both additively and multiplicatively. Additive interaction was evaluated by relative excess risk due to interaction (RERI), attributable proportion due to interaction (AP) and synergy index (S). Results: Among 125,978 elderly hypertensive patients (median age 70.1), 28,250 deaths from all causes and 13,164 deaths from CVD were observed during the follow-up up to 11 years. There was an additive interaction between smoking and physical inactivity [RERI: all-cause 0.19 (95% CI: 0.04-0.34), CVD 0.28 (0.06-0.50); AP: all-cause 0.09 (0.02-0.16), CVD 0.14 (0.04-0.23); S: all-cause 1.21 (1.04-1.42), CVD 1.36 (1.06-1.75)], while the concurrence of both risk factors was associated with more than 2-fold risk of death [hazard ratio (HR): all-cause 2.10 (1.99-2.21), CVD 2.19 (2.02-2.38)]. Conclusion: Our study suggested that smoking and physical inactivity together may have amplified association on premature death compared to the sum of their individual associations, highlighting the importance of improving behavioral factors in combination and promoting a comprehensive healthy lifestyle in hypertensive elderly.

Higher maternal thyroid resistance indices were associated with increased neonatal thyroid-stimulating hormone- analyses based on the Huizhou mother-infant cohort.

Objectives: This study aimed to explore the relationship of maternal thyroid function and thyroid resistance parameters with neonatal thyroid-stimulating hormone (TSH). Methods: This work was a longitudinal study. Singleton pregnant women without a history of thyroid disorders were recruited in their first prenatal visit from October 2018 to June 2020. Maternal thyroid markers including TSH, free triiodothyronine (FT3), free thyroxine (FT4), and neonatal TSH were tested in the clinical laboratory of the hospital by electrochemiluminescence immunoassay. Thyroid resistance indices including Thyroid Feedback Quantile-based Index (TFQI), TSH index (TSHI), and thyrotroph T4 resistance index (TT4RI) were estimated in accordance with maternal FT4 and TSH levels. Multivariable linear and logistic regression was applied to explore the associations of maternal thyroid indices with infantile TSH level. Results: A total of 3,210 mothers and 2,991 newborns with valid TSH data were included for analysis. Multivariable linear regression indicated that maternal thyroid variables were significantly and positively associated with neonatal TSH levels with standardized coefficients of 0.085 for TSH, 0.102 for FT3, 0.100 for FT4, 0.076 for TSHI, 0.087 for TFQI, and 0.089 for TT4RI (all P < 0.001). Compared with the lowest quartile, the highest quartile of TSHI [odds ratio (OR) = 1.590, 95% CI: 0.928-2.724; Ptrend = 0.025], TFQI (OR = 1.746, 95% CI: 1.005-3.034; Ptrend = 0.016), and TT4RI (OR = 1.730, 95% CI: 1.021-2.934; Ptrend = 0.030) were significantly associated with an increased risk of elevated neonatal TSH (>5 mIU/L) in a dose-response manner. Conclusion: The longitudinal data demonstrated that maternal thyroid resistance indices and thyroid hormones in the first half of gestation were positively associated with neonatal TSH levels. The findings offered an additionally practical recommendation to improve the current screening algorithms for congenital hypothyroidism.

Developing and validating a Chinese multimorbidity-weighted index for middle-aged and older community-dwelling individuals.

OBJECTIVE: To develop and validate an index to quantify the multimorbidity burden in Chinese middle-aged and older community-dwelling individuals. METHODS: We included 20,035 individuals aged 45 and older from the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study (CHARLS) and 19,297 individuals aged 65 and older from the Chinese Longitudinal Healthy Longevity Survey (CLHLS). Health outcomes of physical functioning (PF), basic and instrumental activities of daily living (ADL and IADL) and mortality were obtained. Based on self-reported disease status, we calculated five commonly used western multimorbidity indexes for CHARLS baseline participants. The one that predicted the health outcomes the best was selected and then modified through a linear mixed model using the repeated individual data in CHARLS. The performance of the modified index was internally and externally evaluated with CHARLS and CLHLS data. RESULTS: The multimorbidity-weighted index (MWI) performed the best among the five indexes. In the modified Chinese multimorbidity-weighted index (CMWI), the weights of the diseases varied greatly (range 0.2-5.1). The top three diseases with the highest impact were stroke, memory-related diseases and cancer, corresponding to weights of 5.1, 4.3 and 3.4, respectively. Compared with the MWI, the CMWI showed better model fits for PF and IADL with larger R2 and smaller Akaike information criterion, and comparable prediction performances for ADL, IADL and mortality (e.g. the same predictive accuracy of 0.80 for ADL disability). CONCLUSION: The CMWI is an adequate index to quantify the multimorbidity burden for Chinese middle-aged and older community-dwelling individuals. It can be directly computed via disease status examined in regular community health check-ups to facilitate health management.

Time trends of major cancers incidence and mortality in Guangzhou, China 2004-2015: A Joinpoint and Age-Period-Cohort Analysis.

BACKGROUND: Cancer is an important focus of public health worldwide. This study aims to provide a comprehensive overview of temporal trends in incidence and mortality of leading cancer in Guangzhou, China from 2004 to 2015. METHODS: Data were collected from the population-based registry in Guangzhou. Age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) and age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR) were calculated and Joinpoint regression was used for evaluating the average annual percent changes (AAPC) among the entire study period and the estimated annual percent changes (EAPC) in time segments. The effects of age, period, and birth cohort were assessed by the age-period-cohort model. RESULTS: The age-standardized incidence and mortality by the world standard population decreased significantly among males with AAPC of -1.7% (95% CI: -3.0%, 0.2%) and -2.7% (95% CI: -4.3%, -1.1%) for all malignancies during 2004-2015, while among females, the age-standardized incidence had a non-significant reduction with AAPC of -1.3% (95% CI: -2.8%, 0.2%) and the age-standardized mortality demonstrated a remarkable decline (AAPC -2.0%, 95% CI: -3.6%, -0.3%). For males, the most commonly diagnosed cancers were trachea, bronchus, and lung (TBL), liver, colorectal, nasopharyngeal, stomach, and prostate cancer. For females, breast, TBL, colorectal, liver stomach, and thyroid cancer ranked the top. Unfavorable trends were observed in ASIR of colorectal, thyroid, and prostate cancer. APC models yielded different ages, periods, and birth cohort effect patterns by cancer sites. CONCLUSIONS: Cancer burden remained a public health challenge in Guangzhou as the aging population and lifestyles changes, despite declines in incidence and mortality rates in some cancers. Surveillance of cancer trends contributed to valuable insights into cancer prevention and control.

Global Patterns and Trends in Lung Cancer Incidence: A Population-Based Study.

INTRODUCTION: Lung cancer (LC) has been the most common cancer worldwide for several decades. This study comprehensively examines recent geographic patterns and temporal trends in LC incidence from 1978 to 2012 in 43 countries and evaluates the effects of birth cohort and period on temporal trends. METHODS: Data were retrieved from the Cancer Incidence in Five Continents database. Joinpoint regression and age-period-cohort models were applied. RESULTS: The age-standardized rate was highest in Turkey (69.3 per 100,000 person-years) for men and in Denmark (36.7) for women in the period 2008 to 2012. Sex disparities were noted in most countries. From 1978 to 2012, a total of 19 countries had significantly declining trends among men, whereas 26 countries had significantly increasing trends among women (all p < 0.05). Quasi-reversed V-shaped and U-shaped incidence rate ratio trends indicating birth cohort effects were detected in 26 countries for men, with the highest risks mainly occurring in the 1930 to 1950 birth cohorts. However, the risks among recent generations have moderately increased in the People's Republic of China and Japan for men and sharply increased in Lithuania, Belarus, and Republic of Korea for women. Incidence rate ratio increases were steep among earlier birth cohorts and gradual among the post-1930s cohorts in 15 countries for women. Period effects were more evident than birth cohort effects in five countries for both sexes. CONCLUSIONS: Disparities in LC incidence and carcinogenic risk persist worldwide. Our findings identified high-risk target populations for primary prevention to reduce the LC incidence and highlighted the urgent need for etiologic studies to identify the reasons for pronounced cohort-specific risk increases in certain countries.

Association of hepatitis B surface antigen seropositivity and hepatitis B surface antibody seropositivity with diabetes: a cross-sectional study based on two Chinese populations in Guangdong, China.

OBJECTIVES: To examine whether hepatitis B surface antigen (HBsAg) seropositivity and hepatitis B surface antibody (HBsAb) seropositivity were associated with the presence of diabetes in two population-based studies in southern China, the Guangzhou Biobank Cohort Study (GBCS) and the Major Infectious Disease Prevention and Control (MIDPC) study. DESIGN: A cross-sectional study. SETTING: The GBCS was conducted among a community social and welfare organisation with branches in all 10 districts of Guangzhou. The MIDPC was conducted among the community residents in two districts of Guangzhou and three districts of Zhongshan. PARTICIPANTS: 4947 participants from the GBCS and 4357 participants from the MIDPC were included in this study. PRIMARY AND SECONDARY OUTCOME MEASURES: Type 2 diabetes was the main study outcome, which was diagnosed by fasting blood glucose ≥7.0 mmol/L, and/or self-reported history of diabetes. RESULTS: After adjusting for age, sex, education, occupation, smoking status, alcohol use, physical activity and body mass index, we found no association of HBsAg seropositivity in GBCS or MIDPC (OR=1.12, 95% CI 0.74 to 1.69, and OR=0.83, 95% CI 0.59 to 1.17, respectively), and HBsAb seropositivity (OR=0.85, 95% CI 0.65 to 1.12, OR=1.00, 95% CI 0.86 to 1.16, respectively) with the presence of diabetes. Null associations were found for analysis pooling GBCS and MIDPC data after similar adjustment. The adjusted OR for the associations of HBsAg seropositivity and HBsAb seropositivity with the presence of diabetes in the pooled sample was 0.91 (95% CI 0.70 to 1.19) and 0.98 (95% CI 0.86 to 1.12), respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Taking advantage of data from two large cross-sectional studies, we found no association of serological status of HBsAg and HBsAb with the presence of diabetes or glucose measures.

Peer education for HIV prevention among high-risk groups: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: Peer education has become a strategy for health promotion among high-risk groups for HIV infection worldwide. However, the extent to which peer education could have an impact on HIV prevention or the long-term effect of this impact is still unknown. This study thus quantifies the impact of peer education over time among high-risk HIV groups globally. METHOD: Following the PRISMA guidelines, a systematic review and meta-analysis was used to assess the effects and duration of peer education. A thorough literature search of PubMed, Web of Science, Embase and Cochrane Library was performed, and studies about peer education on high-risk HIV groups were reviewed. Pooled effects were calculated and the sources of heterogeneity were explored using meta-regression and subgroup analysis. RESULTS: A total of 60 articles with 96,484 subjects were identified, and peer education was associated with 36% decreased rates of HIV infection among overall high risk groups (OR: 0.64; 95%CI: 0.47-0.87). Peer education can promote HIV testing (OR = 3.19; 95%CI:2.13,4.79) and condom use (OR = 2.66, 95% CI: 2.11-3.36) while reduce equipment sharing (OR = 0.50; 95%CI:0.33,0.75) and unprotected sex (OR = 0.82; 95%CI: 0.72-0.94). Time trend analysis revealed that peer education had a consistent effect on behavior change for over 24 months and the different follow-up times were a source of heterogeneity. CONCLUSION: Our study shows that peer education is an effective tool with long-term impact for behavior change among high-risk HIV groups worldwide. Low and middle-income countries are encouraged to conduct large-scale peer education.

The Usefulness of Bayesian Network in Assessing the Risk of Triple-Negative Breast Cancer.

RATIONALE AND OBJECTIVES: To evaluate a Bayesian network (BN) model learned from epidemiological and clinical information, and various MRI parameters for predicting the risk of triple-negative breast cancer (TNBC). MATERIALS AND METHODS: For this retrospective study, 214 women (mean age ± standard deviation, 50.5±10.6 years) with breast cancer were included between April 2016 and April 2018. All patients underwent MRI, including dynamic contrast-enhanced (DCE)-MRI. The morphologic MRI features, the pattern of the time-signal intensity curve (TIC) and the kinetic parameters were obtained for each lesion. The epidemiological and clinical parameters and those imaging parameters were used to construct BN model to estimate TNBC risk. ROC curves upon probability estimates were used to determine the performance of the BN using area under the ROC curves (Az), sensitivity, specificity, and accuracy. RESULTS: A BN model consisted of 16 epidemiological and clinical characteristics, morphologic MRI features, and quantitative DCE-MRI parameters were established. The posttest probability table showed that patients with age <35 years, mass-like lesions, type I TIC, and MaxCon ≥ 0.186 were at the highest risk of TNBC. The constructed BN model had an Az of 0.663 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.654, 0.672), sensitivity of 0.660 (95% CI: 0.644, 0.675), specificity of 0.740 (95% CI: 0.726, 0.753) and accuracy of 0.724 (95% CI: 0.714, 0.733) in classifying TNBC. CONCLUSION: The BN model integrating epidemiological and clinical characteristics, morphologic and kinetic MRI parameters provide a noninvasive analytical approach for preoperative prediction of the risk of TNBC.