Is there a link between infertility, miscarriage, stillbirth, and premature or early menopause? Results from pooled analyses of 9 cohort studies.

BACKGROUND: Some reproductive factors (such as age at menarche and parity) have been shown to be associated with age at natural menopause, but there has been little quantitative analysis of the association between infertility, miscarriage, stillbirth, and premature (<40 years) or early menopause (40-44 years). In addition, it has been unknown whether the association differs between Asian and non-Asian women, although the age at natural menopause is younger among Asian women. OBJECTIVE: This study aimed to investigate the association of infertility, miscarriage, and stillbirth with age at natural menopause, and whether the association differed by race (Asian and non-Asian). STUDY DESIGN: This was a pooled individual participant data analysis from 9 observational studies contributing to the InterLACE consortium. Naturally postmenopausal women with data on at least 1 of the reproductive factors (ie, infertility, miscarriage, and stillbirth), age at menopause, and confounders (ie, race, education level, age at menarche, body mass index, and smoking status) were included. A multinomial logistic regression model was used to estimate relative risk ratios and 95% confidence intervals for the association of infertility, miscarriage, and stillbirth with premature or early menopause, adjusting for confounders. Between-study difference and within-study correlation were taken into account by including study as a fixed effect and indicating study as a cluster variable. We also examined the association with number of miscarriages (0, 1, 2, ≥3) and stillbirths (0, 1, ≥2), and tested whether the strength of association differed between Asian and non-Asian women. RESULTS: A total of 303,594 postmenopausal women were included. Their median age at natural menopause was 50.0 years (interquartile range, 47.0-52.0). The percentages of women with premature and early menopause were 2.1% and 8.4%, respectively. The relative risk ratios (95% confidence intervals) of premature and early menopause were 2.72 (1.77-4.17) and 1.42 (1.15-1.74) for women with infertility; 1.31 (1.08-1.59) and 1.37 (1.14-1.65) for women with recurrent miscarriages; and 1.54 (1.52-1.56) and 1.39 (1.35-1.43) for women with recurrent stillbirths. Asian women with infertility, recurrent miscarriages (≥3), or recurrent stillbirths (≥2) had higher risk of premature and early menopause compared with non-Asian women with the same reproductive history. CONCLUSION: Histories of infertility and recurrent miscarriages and stillbirths were associated with higher risk of premature and early menopause, and the associations differed by race, with stronger associations for Asian women with such reproductive history.

Early childhood lower respiratory tract infection and premature adult death from respiratory disease in Great Britain: a national birth cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Lower respiratory tract infections (LRTIs) in early childhood are known to influence lung development and lifelong lung health, but their link to premature adult death from respiratory disease is unclear. We aimed to estimate the association between early childhood LRTI and the risk and burden of premature adult mortality from respiratory disease. METHODS: This longitudinal observational cohort study used data collected prospectively by the Medical Research Council National Survey of Health and Development in a nationally representative cohort recruited at birth in March, 1946, in England, Scotland, and Wales. We evaluated the association between LRTI during early childhood (age <2 years) and death from respiratory disease from age 26 through 73 years. Early childhood LRTI occurrence was reported by parents or guardians. Cause and date of death were obtained from the National Health Service Central Register. Hazard ratios (HRs) and population attributable risk associated with early childhood LRTI were estimated using competing risks Cox proportional hazards models, adjusted for childhood socioeconomic position, childhood home overcrowding, birthweight, sex, and smoking at age 20-25 years. We compared mortality within the cohort studied with national mortality patterns and estimated corresponding excess deaths occurring nationally during the study period. FINDINGS: 5362 participants were enrolled in March, 1946, and 4032 (75%) continued participating in the study at age 20-25 years. 443 participants with incomplete data on early childhood (368 [9%] of 4032), smoking (57 [1%]), or mortality (18 [<1%]) were excluded. 3589 participants aged 26 years (1840 [51%] male and 1749 [49%] female) were included in the survival analyses from 1972 onwards. The maximum follow-up time was 47·9 years. Among 3589 participants, 913 (25%) who had an LRTI during early childhood were at greater risk of dying from respiratory disease by age 73 years than those with no LRTI during early childhood (HR 1·93, 95% CI 1·10-3·37; p=0·021), after adjustment for childhood socioeconomic position, childhood home overcrowding, birthweight, sex, and adult smoking. This finding corresponded to a population attributable risk of 20·4% (95% CI 3·8-29·8) and 179 188 (95% CI 33 806-261 519) excess deaths across England and Wales between 1972 and 2019. INTERPRETATION: In this prospective, life-spanning, nationally representative cohort study, LRTI during early childhood was associated with almost a two times increased risk of premature adult death from respiratory disease, and accounted for one-fifth of these deaths. FUNDING: National Institute for Health and Care Research Imperial Biomedical Research Centre, Royal Brompton and Harefield National Health Service (NHS) Foundation Trust, Royal Brompton and Harefield Hospitals Charity and Imperial College Healthcare NHS Trust, UK Medical Research Council.

Risk factors for natural menopause before the age of 45: evidence from two British population-based birth cohort studies.

BACKGROUND: Menopause that occurs before the age of 45 and is not medically induced (referred to here as 'early natural menopause') affects around one in 10 women and has serious health consequences. These consequences include increased risk of all-cause mortality, cardiovascular disease, osteoporosis, and type 2 diabetes. METHODS: We investigate risk factors for the onset of natural menopause before the age of 45 in two population-based prospective cohort studies in Britain: the 1958 cohort following 8959 women and the 1970 cohort following 8655 women. These studies follow women from birth to adulthood, and we use harmonized data on birth and early life characteristics, reproductive health, health behaviour, and socioeconomic characteristics for 6805 women who were pre-menopausal, peri-menopausal or had undergone natural menopause. Of these 6805 women, 3614 participated in the 1958 cohort (of which 368 had early menopause) and 3191 participated in the 1970 cohort (of which 206 had early menopause). Taking a life course approach, we focus on three distinct life stages - birth/early life, childhood, and early adulthood - to understand when risk factors are most harmful. Respecting the temporal sequence of exposures, we use a series of multivariable logistic regression models to estimate associations between early menopause and each potential risk factor adjusted for confounders. RESULTS: We find that early menopause is influenced by circumstances at birth. Women born in lower social class families, whose mother smoked during the pregnancy or who were breastfed 1 month or less were more likely to undergo early menopause. Early menopause is also associated with poorer cognitive ability and smoking in childhood. Adult health behaviour also matters. Smoking is positively correlated with early menopause, while regular exercise and moderate frequency of alcohol drinking in women's early thirties are associated with reduced risk of early menopause. The occurrence of gynaecological problems by women's early thirties is also linked to early menopause. CONCLUSIONS: We demonstrate that characteristics at different periods of life are associated with early menopause. Some of these associations relate to modifiable behaviours and thus the risks of early menopause and the adverse health outcomes associated with it may be preventable.

Infertility, recurrent pregnancy loss, and risk of stroke: pooled analysis of individual patient data of 618 851 women.

OBJECTIVE: To examine the associations of infertility, recurrent miscarriage, and stillbirth with the risk of first non-fatal and fatal stroke, further stratified by stroke subtypes. DESIGN: Individual participant pooled analysis of eight prospective cohort studies. SETTING: Cohort studies across seven countries (Australia, China, Japan, Netherlands, Sweden, the United Kingdom, and the United States) participating in the InterLACE (International Collaboration for a Life Course Approach to Reproductive Health and Chronic Disease Events) consortium, which was established in June 2012. PARTICIPANTS: 618 851 women aged 32.0-73.0 years at baseline with data on infertility, miscarriage, or stillbirth, at least one outcome event (non-fatal or fatal stroke), and information on covariates were included; 93 119 women were excluded. Of the participants, 275 863 had data on non-fatal and fatal stroke, 54 716 only had data on non-fatal stroke, and 288 272 only had data on fatal stroke. MAIN OUTCOME AND MEASURES: Non-fatal strokes were identified through self-reported questionnaires, linked hospital data, or national patient registers. Fatal strokes were identified through death registry data. RESULTS: The median follow-up for non-fatal stroke and fatal stroke was 13.0 years (interquartile range 12.0-14.0) and 9.4 years (7.6-13.0), respectively. A first non-fatal stroke was experienced by 9265 (2.8%) women and 4003 (0.7%) experienced a fatal stroke. Hazard ratios for non-fatal or fatal stroke were stratified by hypertension and adjusted for race or ethnicity, body mass index, smoking status, education level, and study. Infertility was associated with an increased risk of non-fatal stroke (hazard ratio 1.14, 95% confidence interval 1.08 to 1.20). Recurrent miscarriage (at least three) was associated with higher risk of non-fatal and fatal stroke (1.35, 1.27 to 1.44, and 1.82, 1.58 to 2.10, respectively). Women with stillbirth were at 31% higher risk of non-fatal stroke (1.31, 1.10 to 1.57) and women with recurrent stillbirth were at 26% higher risk of fatal stroke (1.26, 1.15 to 1.39). The increased risk of stroke (non-fatal or fatal) associated with infertility or recurrent stillbirths was mainly driven by a single stroke subtype (non-fatal ischaemic stroke and fatal haemorrhagic stroke), while the increased risk of stroke (non-fatal or fatal) associated with recurrent miscarriages was driven by both subtypes. CONCLUSION: A history of recurrent miscarriages and death or loss of a baby before or during birth could be considered a female specific risk factor for stroke, with differences in risk according to stroke subtypes. These findings could contribute to improved monitoring and stroke prevention for women with such a history.

Do the associations of body mass index and waist circumference with back pain change as people age? 32 years of follow-up in a British birth cohort.

OBJECTIVES: To investigate whether cross-sectional and longitudinal associations of body mass index (BMI) and waist circumference (WC) with back pain change with age and extend into later life. DESIGN: British birth cohort study. SETTING: England, Scotland and Wales. PARTICIPANTS: Up to 3426 men and women from the MRC National Survey of Health and Development. PRIMARY OUTCOME MEASURES: Back pain (sciatica, lumbago or recurring/severe backache all or most of the time) was self-reported during nurse interviews at ages 36, 43, 53 and 60-64 years and in a postal questionnaire using a body manikin at age 68. RESULTS: Findings from mixed-effects logistic regression models indicated that higher BMI was consistently associated with increased odds of back pain across adulthood. Sex-adjusted ORs of back pain per 1 SD increase in BMI were: 1.13 (95% CI: 1.01 to 1.26), 1.11 (95% CI: 1.00 to 1.23), 1.17 (95% CI: 1.05 to 1.30), 1.31 (95% CI: 1.15 to 1.48) and 1.08 (95% CI: 0.95 to 1.24) at ages 36, 43, 53, 60-64 and 68-69, respectively. Similar patterns of associations were observed for WC. These associations were maintained when potential confounders, including education, occupational class, height, cigarette smoking status, physical activity and symptoms of anxiety and depression were accounted for. BMI showed stronger associations than WC in models including both measures. CONCLUSIONS: These findings demonstrate that higher BMI is a persistent risk factor for back pain across adulthood. This highlights the potential lifelong consequences on back pain of the rising prevalence of obesity within the population.

Type of menopause, age of menopause and variations in the risk of incident cardiovascular disease: pooled analysis of individual data from 10 international studies.

STUDY QUESTION: How does the risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD) vary with type and age of menopause? SUMMARY ANSWER: Earlier surgical menopause (e.g. <45 years) poses additional increased risk of incident CVD events, compared to women with natural menopause at the same age, and HRT use reduced the risk of CVD in women with early surgical menopause. WHAT IS KNOWN ALREADY: Earlier age at menopause has been linked to an increased risk of CVD mortality and all-cause mortality, but the extent that this risk of CVD varies by type of menopause and the role of postmenopausal HRT use in reducing this risk is unclear. STUDY DESIGN, SIZE, DURATION: Pooled individual-level data of 203 767 postmenopausal women from 10 observational studies that contribute to the International collaboration for a Life course Approach to reproductive health and Chronic disease Events (InterLACE) consortium were included in the analysis. PARTICIPANTS/MATERIALS, SETTING, METHODS: Postmenopausal women who had reported menopause (type and age of menopause) and information on non-fatal CVD events were included. Type of menopause (natural menopause and surgical menopause) and age at menopause (categorised as <35, 35-39, 40-44, 45-49, 50-54 and ≥55 years) were exposures of interest. Natural menopause was defined as absence of menstruation over a period of 12 months (no hysterectomy and/or oophorectomy) and surgical menopause as removal of both ovaries. The study outcome was the first non-fatal CVD (defined as either incident coronary heart disease (CHD) or stroke) event ascertained from hospital medical records or self-reported. We used Cox proportional hazards models to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% CI for non-fatal CVD events associated with natural menopause and surgical menopause. MAIN RESULTS AND THE ROLE OF CHANCE: Compared with natural menopause, surgical menopause was associated with over 20% higher risk of CVD (HR 1.22, 95% CI 1.16-1.28). After the stratified analysis by age at menopause, a graded relationship for incident CVD was observed with lower age at menopause in both types of natural and surgical menopause. There was also a significant interaction between type of menopause and age at menopause (P < 0.001). Compared with natural menopause at 50-54 years, women with surgical menopause before 35 (2.55, 2.22-2.94) and 35-39 years (1.91, 1.71-2.14) had higher risk of CVD than those with natural menopause (1.59, 1.23-2.05 and 1.51, 1.33-1.72, respectively). Women who experienced surgical menopause at earlier age (<50 years) and took HRT had lower risk of incident CHD than those who were not users of HRT. LIMITATIONS, REASONS FOR CAUTION: Self-reported data on type and age of menopause, no information on indication for the surgery (e.g. endometriosis and fibroids) and the exclusion of fatal CVD events may bias our results. WIDER IMPLICATIONS OF THE FINDINGS: In clinical practice, women who experienced natural menopause or had surgical menopause at an earlier age need close monitoring and engagement for preventive health measures and early diagnosis of CVD. Our findings also suggested that timing of menopause should be considered as an important factor in risk assessment of CVD for women. The findings on CVD lend some support to the position that elective bilateral oophorectomy (surgical menopause) at hysterectomy for benign diseases should be discouraged based on an increased risk of CVD. STUDY FUNDING/COMPETING INTEREST(S): InterLACE project is funded by the Australian National Health and Medical Research Council project grant (APP1027196). GDM is supported by Australian National Health and Medical Research Council Principal Research Fellowship (APP1121844). There are no competing interests.

Associations Between Factors Across Life and One-Legged Balance Performance in Mid and Later Life: Evidence From a British Birth Cohort Study.

INTRODUCTION: Despite its associations with falls, disability, and mortality, balance is an under-recognized and frequently overlooked aspect of aging. Studies investigating associations between factors across life and balance are limited. Understanding the factors related to balance performance could help identify protective factors and appropriate interventions across the life course. This study aimed to: (i) identify socioeconomic, anthropometric, behavioral, health, and cognitive factors that are associated with one-legged balance performance; and (ii) explore how these associations change with age. METHODS: Data came from 3,111 members of the MRC National Survey of Health and Development, a British birth cohort study. Multilevel models examined how one-legged standing balance times (assessed at ages 53, 60-64, and 69) were associated with 15 factors across life: sex, maternal education (4 years), paternal occupation (4 years), own education (26 years), own occupation (53 years), and contemporaneous measures (53, 60-64, 69 years) of height, BMI, physical activity, smoking, diabetes, respiratory symptoms, cardiovascular events, knee pain, depression and verbal memory. Age and sex interactions with each variable were assessed. RESULTS: Men had 18.8% (95%CI: 13.6, 23.9) longer balance times than women at age 53, although this difference decreased with age (11.8% at age 60-64 and 7.6% at age 69). Disadvantaged socioeconomic position in childhood and adulthood, low educational attainment, less healthy behaviors, poor health status, lower cognition, higher body mass index (BMI), and shorter height were associated with poorer balance at all three ages. For example, at age 53, those from the lowest paternal occupational classes had 29.6% (22.2, 38.8) worse balance than those from the highest classes. Associations of balance with socioeconomic indicators, cognition and physical activity became smaller with age, while associations with knee pain and depression became larger. There were no sex differences in these associations. In a combined model, the majority of factors remained associated with balance. DISCUSSION: This study identified numerous risk factors across life that are associated with one-legged balance performance and highlighted diverse patterns of association with age, suggesting that there are opportunities to intervene in early, mid and later life. A multifactorial approach to intervention, at both societal and individual levels, may have more benefit than focusing on a single risk factor.

Age at natural menopause and risk of incident cardiovascular disease: a pooled analysis of individual patient data.

BACKGROUND: Early menopause is linked to an increased risk of cardiovascular disease mortality; however, the association between early menopause and incidence and timing of cardiovascular disease is unclear. We aimed to assess the associations between age at natural menopause and incidence and timing of cardiovascular disease. METHODS: We harmonised and pooled individual-level data from 15 observational studies done across five countries and regions (Australia, Scandinavia, the USA, Japan, and the UK) between 1946 and 2013. Women who had reported their menopause status, age at natural menopause (if postmenopausal), and cardiovascular disease status (including coronary heart disease and stroke) were included. We excluded women who had hysterectomy or oophorectomy and women who did not report their age at menopause. The primary endpoint of this study was the occurrence of first non-fatal cardiovascular disease, defined as a composite outcome of incident coronary heart disease (including heart attack and angina) or stroke (including ischaemic stroke or haemorrhagic stroke). We used Cox proportional hazards models to estimate multivariate hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% CIs for the associations between age at menopause and incident cardiovascular disease event. We also adjusted the model to account for smoking status, menopausal hormone therapy status, body-mass index, and education levels. Age at natural menopause was categorised as premenopausal or perimenopausal, younger than 40 years (premature menopause), 40-44 years (early menopause), 45-49 years (relatively early), 50-51 years (reference category), 52-54 years (relatively late), and 55 years or older (late menopause). FINDINGS: Overall, 301 438 women were included in our analysis. Of these 301 438 women, 12 962 (4·3%) had a first non-fatal cardiovascular disease event after menopause, of whom 9369 (3·1%) had coronary heart disease and 4338 (1·4%) had strokes. Compared with women who had menopause at age 50-51 years, the risk of cardiovascular disease was higher in women who had premature menopause (age <40 years; HR 1·55, 95% CI 1·38-1·73; p<0·0001), early menopause (age 40-44 years; 1·30, 1·22-1·39; p<0·0001), and relatively early menopause (age 45-49 years; 1·12, 1·07-1·18; p<0·0001), with a significantly reduced risk of cardiovascular disease following menopause after age 51 years (p<0·0001 for trend). The associations persisted in never smokers, and were strongest before age 60 years for women with premature menopause (HR 1·88, 1·62-2·20; p<0·0001) and early menopause (1·40, 1·27-1·54; p<0·0001), but were attenuated at age 60-69 years, with no significant association observed at age 70 years and older. INTERPRETATION: Compared with women who had menopause at age 50-51 years, women with premature and early menopause had a substantially increased risk of a non-fatal cardiovascular disease event before the age of 60 years, but not after age 70 years. Women with earlier menopause need close monitoring in clinical practice, and age at menopause might also be considered as an important factor in risk stratification of cardiovascular disease for women. FUNDING: Australian National Health and Medical Research Council.

Associations of medical conditions, lifestyle and unintentional weight loss in early old age: The 1946 British Birth Cohort.

BACKGROUND: Unintentional weight loss in older people has been linked to increased risk of mortality. We aimed to investigate common medical conditions and lifestyle factors, including body fat distribution, as potential determinants of recent and prospective unintentional weight loss in early old age. METHODS: From the Medical Research Council (MRC) National Survey of Health and Development (NSHD), we included a total of 2234 study members aged 60-64 with information on unintentional weight loss in 2006-2010. Of these, 2136 also had information on unintentional weight loss recorded in 2015. Logistic regression was conducted to examine the associations between medical conditions, lifestyle, and body fat distribution at age 60-64 and unintentional weight loss at age 60-64 and 69. RESULTS: A total of 109 of 2234 study members had unintentional weight loss at ages 60-64, and 166 of 2136 at age 69. Never smoking was associated with lower risk of unintentional weight loss at age 60-64 (OR = 0.29, 95%CI = 0.12-0.68 compared to current smokers), and this association remained when adjusted for other determinants. Greater waist-hip ratio (OR = 0.95, 95%CI = 0.91-0.99) and body fat-lean mass ratio (OR = 0.96, 95%CI = 0.94-0.99) were associated with less likelihood of unintentional weight loss at age 60-64. Never smoking and greater hip circumference at age 60-64 were associated with lower odds of unintentional weight loss at age 69. CONCLUSIONS: Smoking status and body fat distribution may help identify those at risk of unintentional weight loss in early old age. Their benefit in interventions to prevent age-associated weight loss needs to be further investigated.

Premenopausal cardiovascular disease and age at natural menopause: a pooled analysis of over 170,000 women.

Early menopause is associated with an increased risk of subsequent cardiovascular disease (CVD). Few studies have investigated the converse. We examined whether premenopausal CVD events are associated with early age at menopause. We pooled the individual data of 177,131 women from nine studies. We used multinomial logistic regression models to estimate multivariable relative risk ratios (RRR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) for the associations between age at onset of premenopausal CVD events-including coronary heart disease (CHD) and stroke-and age at natural menopause. Altogether 1561 (0.9%) premenopausal participants reported CVD events (including 1130 CHD and 469 stroke) at a mean age of 41.3 years. Compared with women without any premenopausal CVD events, women who experienced a first CVD event before age 35 years had a twofold risk of menopause before age 45 years (early menopause); adjusted RRR (95% CI) of 1.92 (1.17, 3.14) for any CVD, 1.86 (1.01, 3.43) for CHD and 2.17 (1.43, 3.30) for stroke. Women who experienced a first premenopausal CVD event after age 40 years underwent a natural menopause at the expected age (around 51 years). These associations were robust to adjustment for smoking status, BMI, educational level, race/ethnicity, age at menarche, parity, hypertension and family history of CVD. For premenopausal women, a first CVD event before age 35 years is associated with a doubling of the risk of an early menopause, while a first CVD event occurred after 35 years indicates a normal menopause at around 51 years. Shared genetic and environmental factors (such as smoking), as well as compromised vasculature following CVD events, may contribute to this outcome.

Systemic Inflammation and Cardio-Renal Organ Damage Biomarkers in Middle Age Are Associated With Physical Capability Up to 9 Years Later.

BACKGROUND: Physical capability, a key component of healthy aging, is associated with cardiovascular and other risk factors across life. We investigated whether midlife biomarkers of heart and kidney damage capturing the cumulative impact of long-term adverse exposures were associated with the level and decline in physical capability over 9 years of follow-up, taking account of systemic inflammatory biomarkers and conventional cardiovascular risk factors. METHODS: We used data on 1736 men and women from the oldest British birth cohort study with walking speed, chair rise speed, balance time, and grip strength assessed at ages 60 to 64 and 69 years. We tested associations between logged and standardized measures of cystatin C, NT-proBNP (N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide), interleukin (IL)-6, and E-selectin at age 60 to 64 years with performance at age 69 years, adjusting for sex, height, and body mass index; then for performance at age 60 to 64 years. These biomarkers were mutually adjusted, and additionally adjusted for cardiovascular risk factors (pulse pressure, total/high density lipoprotein cholesterol, glycosylated hemoglobin), diabetes mellitus, cardiovascular and kidney disease, smoking status, and lifetime socioeconomic position. RESULTS: Cystatin C, NT-proBNP, and IL-6 (but not E-selectin) were inversely associated with all outcomes, adjusted for sex, height, and body mass index. For example, a 1-SD increase in logged NT-proBNP was associated with weaker grip (-0.63 kg, 95% CI, -0.99 to -0.28); the equivalent association for cystatin C was -0.60 kg (95% CI, -0.94 to -0.25) and for IL-6 was -0.76 kg (95% CI, -1.11 to -0.41). Most associations remained, albeit attenuated, after adjustment for previous performance and mutual adjustment of the biomarkers. NT-proBNP and IL-6 (but not cystatin C) were more strongly associated with the outcomes than many of the conventional risk factors after mutual adjustment. CONCLUSIONS: Higher levels of NT-proBNP may identify those in midlife at risk of accelerated physical decline. Before considering the use of NT-proBNP for risk stratification, further research should untangle whether these associations exist because the biomarker is an integrated measure of cumulative exposures to relevant stressors across life, or whether it is marking additional risk pathways. Randomized trials to reduce the rate of decline in physical capability or delay incident disability could benefit from including middle-aged adults and adding NT-proBNP and IL-6 as intermediate outcomes.

Are BMI and inflammatory markers independently associated with physical fatigability in old age?

BACKGROUND: Obesity and chronic low-grade inflammation have both been implicated in the onset of physical fatigue. However, few studies have investigated the independence of these associations in older community-dwelling populations. We therefore aimed to investigate the associations of body mass index (BMI) and inflammatory markers at age 60-64 with perceived physical fatigability at age 68 and to assess whether any such associations were independent of each other and potential confounding factors. A secondary aim was to investigate whether any association with BMI extended back into earlier adulthood. METHODS: Participants of the MRC National Survey of Health and Development (N = 1580) had BMI and levels of interleukin-6 (IL-6) and C-reactive protein (CRP) measured during clinical assessments at age 60-64. These were related to self-perceived physical fatigability assessed at age 68 using the Pittsburgh Fatigability Scale (PFS) (total score:0 (no physical fatigue)-50 (extreme physical fatigue)). RESUTS: Women had higher mean PFS scores than men (mean (SD): 16.0 (9.1) vs 13.2 (8.9), p < 0.01). In sex-adjusted models, BMI, CRP and IL-6 were each associated with PFS scores. When all three factors were included in the same model, BMI and IL-6 remained associated with PFS scores whereas CRP did not. After adjustment for a range of potential confounders, associations of BMI and IL-6 with PFS scores were still evident; fully adjusted differences in mean PFS score = 3.41 (95% CI: 0.59, 6.24) and 1.65 (0.46, 2.84) for underweight and obese participants when compared with normal weight and, 2.78 (1.65, 3.91) when comparing those with an IL-6 of 2.51-8.49 pg/mL with levels <1.50. CONCLUSIONS: BMI and inflammation may both be suitable targets for intervention to reduce the burden of physical fatigability in later life. Further, interventions that target both obesity and elevated levels of IL-6 are likely to be more effective than those focusing on only one.

A dietary pattern derived using B-vitamins and its relationship with vascular markers over the life course.

BACKGROUND: Diet may influence vascular function through elevated homocysteine (Hcy) concentrations. However the relationship between dietary patterns (DP), characterised by Hcy and its associated nutrients is unknown. OBJECTIVE: To identify a DP characterised by plasma Hcy, dietary folate and dietary vitamin B12, and examine its associations with two markers of vascular function: carotid intima-media thickness (cIMT) and pulse wave velocity (PWV). METHODS: 1562 participants of the MRC National Survey of Health and Development (NSHD), a British birth cohort, with dietary data measured at least once between 36 and 60-64 years, and cIMT or PWV measured at 60-64 years were included. DPs were derived using reduced rank regression with three intermediate variables: 1) plasma Hcy (µmol/L) 2) folate intake (µg/1000 kcal) 3) vitamin B12 intake (µg/1000 kcal). Multiple regression models assessed associations between the derived DP z-scores and vascular function adjusting for dietary misreporting, socioeconomic position, BMI, smoking, physical activity and diabetes. RESULTS: A DP explaining the highest amount of shared variation (4.5%) in plasma Hcy, dietary folate and dietary vitamin B12 highly correlated with folate (r = 0.96), moderately correlated with vitamin B12 (r = 0.27), and weakly correlated with Hcy (r = 0.10). This "high B-vitamin" DP (including folate) was characterised by high intakes of vegetables, fruit and low fibre breakfast cereal, and low intakes of processed meat, white bread, sugar and preserves. No associations were observed between DP z-scores and vascular function at any time point following adjustment for covariates. CONCLUSION: This study explored a specific hypothesised pathway linking diet to vascular function. Although we found no consistent evidence for an association between a high B-vitamin DP and vascular function, we did observe an association with CRP and triglycerides in secondary analyses. Further analyses using strongly correlated and biologically relevant intermediate variables are required to refine investigations into diet and CVD in longitudinal cohort data.

Relationships between intensity, duration, cumulative dose, and timing of smoking with age at menopause: A pooled analysis of individual data from 17 observational studies.

BACKGROUND: Cigarette smoking is associated with earlier menopause, but the impact of being a former smoker and any dose-response relationships on the degree of smoking and age at menopause have been less clear. If the toxic impact of cigarette smoking on ovarian function is irreversible, we hypothesized that even former smokers might experience earlier menopause, and variations in intensity, duration, cumulative dose, and age at start/quit of smoking might have varying impacts on the risk of experiencing earlier menopause. METHODS AND FINDINGS: A total of 207,231 and 27,580 postmenopausal women were included in the cross-sectional and prospective analyses, respectively. They were from 17 studies in 7 countries (Australia, Denmark, France, Japan, Sweden, United Kingdom, United States) that contributed data to the International collaboration for a Life course Approach to reproductive health and Chronic disease Events (InterLACE). Information on smoking status, cigarettes smoked per day (intensity), smoking duration, pack-years (cumulative dose), age started, and years since quitting smoking was collected at baseline. We used multinomial logistic regression models to estimate multivariable relative risk ratios (RRRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for the associations between each smoking measure and categorised age at menopause (<40 (premature), 40-44 (early), 45-49, 50-51 (reference), and ≥52 years). The association with current and former smokers was analysed separately. Sensitivity analyses and two-step meta-analyses were also conducted to test the results. The Bayesian information criterion (BIC) was used to compare the fit of the models of smoking measures. Overall, 1.9% and 7.3% of women experienced premature and early menopause, respectively. Compared with never smokers, current smokers had around twice the risk of experiencing premature (RRR 2.05; 95% CI 1.73-2.44) (p < 0.001) and early menopause (1.80; 1.66-1.95) (p < 0.001). The corresponding RRRs in former smokers were attenuated to 1.13 (1.04-1.23; p = 0.006) and 1.15 (1.05-1.27; p = 0.005). In both current and former smokers, dose-response relationships were observed, i.e., higher intensity, longer duration, higher cumulative dose, earlier age at start smoking, and shorter time since quitting smoking were significantly associated with higher risk of premature and early menopause, as well as earlier menopause at 45-49 years. Duration of smoking was a strong predictor of age at natural menopause. Among current smokers with duration of 15-20 years, the risk was markedly higher for premature (15.58; 11.29-19.86; p < 0.001) and early (6.55; 5.04-8.52; p < 0.001) menopause. Also, current smokers with 11-15 pack-years had over 4-fold (4.35; 2.78-5.92; p < 0.001) and 3-fold (3.01; 2.15-4.21; p < 0.001) risk of premature and early menopause, respectively. Smokers who had quit smoking for more than 10 years had similar risk as never smokers (1.04; 0.98-1.10; p = 0.176). A limitation of the study is the measurement errors that may have arisen due to recall bias. CONCLUSIONS: The probability of earlier menopause is positively associated with intensity, duration, cumulative dose, and earlier initiation of smoking. Smoking duration is a much stronger predictor of premature and early menopause than others. Our findings highlight the clear benefits for women of early smoking cessation to lower their excess risk of earlier menopause.

Physical Activity, Sedentary Time, and Cardiovascular Disease Biomarkers at Age 60 to 64 Years.

Background We examined associations of objectively measured physical activity ( PA ) and sedentary time with cardiovascular disease biomarkers at age 60 to 64 years. This included investigation of sex differences and the extent to which associations may be mediated by adiposity. Methods and Results Participants were 795 men and 827 women aged 60 to 64 years from the Medical Research Council National Survey of Health and Development. Combined heart rate and movement sensors worn for 5 consecutive days were used to derive overall PA energy expenditure, kJ /kg per day) and time spent sedentary (<1.5 metabolic equivalent of tasks), in light PA (1.5-3 metabolic equivalent of tasks) and moderate-to-vigorous intensity PA (>3 metabolic equivalent of tasks). Linear regression models were used to relate each PA parameter to inflammatory (C-reactive protein, interleukin-6), endothelial (tissue-plasminogen activator, E-selectin) and adipokine (leptin, adiponectin) markers extracted from fasting blood samples. Greater time in light PA and moderate-to-vigorous intensity PA and less sedentary time were associated with more favorable biomarker levels. For C-reactive protein, interleukin-6, and leptin, these differences were greater among women than men. For example, % differences (95% confidence intervals) in leptin for men and women per SD increases in sedentary time: 7.9 (2.7, 13.0) and 20.6 (15.3, 25.8); light intensity PA : -3.8 (-8.9, 12.7) and -17.7 (-23.1, -12.4), moderate-to-vigorous intensity PA : -12.9 (-17.9, -8.0) and -18.3 (-23.4, -13.1). Fat mass mediated a greater proportion of these associations in women than men. Conclusions Greater light PA and moderate-to-vigorous intensity PA and less sedentary time in early old age were associated with more favorable cardiovascular biomarker profiles. Fat mass partially mediated these associations but more strongly in women than men, which explained sex differences.

A Bayesian approach to investigate life course hypotheses involving continuous exposures.

Background: Different hypotheses have been proposed in life course epidemiology on how a time-varying exposure can affect health or disease later in life. Researchers are often interested in investigating the probability of these hypotheses based on observed life course data. However, current techniques based on model/variable selection do not provide a direct estimate of this probability. We propose an alternative technique for a continuous exposure, using a Bayesian approach that has specific advantages, to investigate which life course hypotheses are supported by the observed data. Methods: We demonstrate the technique, the relevant life course exposure model (RLM), using simulations. We also analyse data from a case-control study on risk factors of oral cancer, with repeated measurements of betel quid chewing across life. We investigate the relative importance of chewing one quid of betel per day, at three life periods: ≤20 years, 21-40 years and above 40 years of age, on the risk of developing oral cancer. Results: RLM was able to correctly identify the life course hypothesis under which the data were simulated. Results from the case-control study showed that there was 74.3% probability that betel quid exposure earlier in life, compared with later, results in higher odds of developing oral cancer later in life. Conclusions: RLM is a useful option to identify the life course hypothesis supported by the observed data prior to the estimation of a causal effect.

Hepatic steatosis risk is partly driven by increased de novo lipogenesis following carbohydrate consumption.

BACKGROUND: Diet is a major contributor to metabolic disease risk, but there is controversy as to whether increased incidences of diseases such as non-alcoholic fatty liver disease arise from consumption of saturated fats or free sugars. Here, we investigate whether a sub-set of triacylglycerols (TAGs) were associated with hepatic steatosis and whether they arise from de novo lipogenesis (DNL) from the consumption of carbohydrates. RESULTS: We conduct direct infusion mass spectrometry of lipids in plasma to study the association between specific TAGs and hepatic steatosis assessed by ultrasound and fatty liver index in volunteers from the UK-based Fenland Study and evaluate clustering of TAGs in the National Survey of Health and Development UK cohort. We find that TAGs containing saturated and monounsaturated fatty acids with 16-18 carbons are specifically associated with hepatic steatosis. These TAGs are additionally associated with higher consumption of carbohydrate and saturated fat, hepatic steatosis, and variations in the gene for protein phosphatase 1, regulatory subunit 3b (PPP1R3B), which in part regulates glycogen synthesis. DNL is measured in hyperphagic ob/ob mice, mice on a western diet (high in fat and free sugar) and in healthy humans using stable isotope techniques following high carbohydrate meals, demonstrating the rate of DNL correlates with increased synthesis of this cluster of TAGs. Furthermore, these TAGs are increased in plasma from patients with biopsy-confirmed steatosis. CONCLUSION: A subset of TAGs is associated with hepatic steatosis, even when correcting for common confounding factors. We suggest that hepatic steatosis risk in western populations is in part driven by increased DNL following carbohydrate rich meals in addition to the consumption of saturated fat.

Age at menopause and lifetime cognition: Findings from a British birth cohort study.

OBJECTIVE: We investigated whether cognitive performance between ages 43 and 69 years was associated with timing of menopause, controlling for hormone replacement therapy, childhood cognitive ability, and sociobehavioral factors. METHODS: We used data from 1,315 women participating in the Medical Research Council National Survey of Health and Development (a British birth cohort study) with known age at period cessation and up to 4 assessments of verbal memory (word-learning task) and processing speed (letter-cancellation task) at ages 43, 53, 60-64, and 69. We fitted multilevel models with linear and quadratic age terms, stratified by natural or surgical menopause, and adjusted for hormone replacement therapy, body mass index, smoking, occupational class, education, and childhood cognitive ability. RESULTS: Verbal memory increased with later age at natural menopause (0.17 words per year, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.07-0.27, p = 0.001); an association remained, albeit attenuated, after full adjustment (0.09, 95% CI: 0.02-0.17, p = 0.013). Verbal memory also increased with later age at surgical menopause (0.16, 95% CI: 0.06-0.27, p = 0.002), but this association was fully attenuated after adjustment. Search speed was not associated with age at menopause. CONCLUSION: Our findings suggest lifelong hormonal processes, not just short-term fluctuations during the menopause transition, may be associated with verbal memory, consistent with evidence from a variety of neurobiological studies; mechanisms are likely to involve estrogen receptor ß function. Further follow-up is required to assess fully the clinical significance of these associations.

Adherence to a Dietary Approaches to Stop Hypertension (DASH)-type diet over the life course and associated vascular function: a study based on the MRC 1946 British birth cohort.

Little is known about long-term associations between the Dietary Approaches to Stop Hypertension (DASH) diet and conventional cardiovascular (CV)-risk factors as well as novel measures of vascular function. This study aimed to examine whether long-term adherence to a DASH-type diet in a British birth cohort is associated with conventional CV-risk factors and two vascular function markers, carotid intima-media thickness (cIMT) and pulse wave velocity (PWV). Data came from 1409 participants of the Medical Research Council (MRC) National Survey of Health and Development. Dietary intake was assessed at 36, 43, 53 and 60-64 years using 5-d estimated food diaries. The DASH-type diet score was calculated using the Fung index. Conventional CV-risk factors (blood pressure (BP) and lipids), cIMT in the right and/or left common carotid artery and PWV was measured when participants were 60-64 years. Associations between the DASH-type diet score and outcomes were assessed using multiple regression models adjusted for socioeconomic position, BMI, smoking and physical activity. Participants in higher sex-specific quintiles (Q) of the long-term DASH-type diet had lower BP (P≤0·08), higher HDL-cholesterol (P<0·001) and lower TAG (P<0·001) compared with people in Q1. Participants in Q5 of the long-term DASH-type diet had lower PWV (-0·28 sd; 95 % CI -0·50, -0·07, P trend=0·01) and cIMT (-0·24 sd; 95 % CI -0·44, -0·04, P trend=0·02) compared with participants in the Q1. This association was independent of the conventional CV-risk factors. Greater adherence to a DASH diet over the life course is associated with conventional CV-risk factors and independently associated with cIMT and PWV.