An ECG-based machine learning model for predicting new-onset atrial fibrillation is superior to age and clinical features in identifying patients at high stroke risk.

BACKGROUND: Several large trials have employed age or clinical features to select patients for atrial fibrillation (AF) screening to reduce strokes. We hypothesized that a machine learning (ML) model trained to predict AF risk from 12­lead electrocardiogram (ECG) would be more efficient than criteria based on clinical variables in indicating a population for AF screening to potentially prevent AF-related stroke. METHODS: We retrospectively included all patients with clinical encounters in Geisinger without a prior history of AF. Incidence of AF within 1 year and AF-related strokes within 3 years of the encounter were identified. AF-related stroke was defined as a stroke where AF was diagnosed at the time of stroke or within a year after the stroke. The efficiency of five methods was evaluated for selecting a cohort for AF screening. The methods were selected from four clinical trials (mSToPS, GUARD-AF, SCREEN-AF and STROKESTOP) and the ECG-based ML model. We simulated patient selection for the five methods between the years 2011 and 2014 and evaluated outcomes for 1 year intervals between 2012 and 2015, resulting in a total of twenty 1-year periods. Patients were considered eligible if they met the criteria before the start of the given 1-year period or within that period. The primary outcomes were numbers needed to screen (NNS) for AF and AF-associated stroke. RESULTS: The clinical trial models indicated large proportions of the population with a prior ECG for AF screening (up to 31%), coinciding with NNS ranging from 14 to 18 for AF and 249-359 for AF-associated stroke. At comparable sensitivity, the ECG ML model indicated a modest number of patients for screening (14%) and had the highest efficiency in NNS for AF (7.3; up to 60% reduction) and AF-associated stroke (223; up to 38% reduction). CONCLUSIONS: An ECG-based ML risk prediction model is more efficient than contemporary AF-screening criteria based on age alone or age and clinical features at indicating a population for AF screening to potentially prevent AF-related strokes.

Impact of a Population Genomic Screening Program on Health Behaviors Related to Familial Hypercholesterolemia Risk Reduction.

BACKGROUND: Limited information is available regarding clinician and participant behaviors after disclosure of genomic risk variants for familial hypercholesterolemia (FH) from a population genomic screening program. METHODS: We conducted a retrospective cohort study of MyCode participants with an FH risk variant beginning 2 years before disclosure until January 16, 2019. We analyzed lipid-lowering prescriptions (clinician behavior), medication adherence (participant behavior), and LDL (low-density lipoprotein) cholesterol levels (health outcome impact) pre- and post-disclosure. Data were collected from electronic health records and claims. RESULTS: The cohort included 96 participants of mean age 57 (22-90) years with median follow-up of 14 (range, 3-39) months. Most (90%) had a hypercholesterolemia diagnosis but no specific FH diagnosis before disclosure; 29% had an FH diagnosis post-disclosure. After disclosure, clinicians made 36 prescription changes in 38% of participants, mostly in participants who did not achieve LDL cholesterol goals pre-disclosure (81%). However, clinicians wrote prescriptions for fewer participants post-disclosure (71/96, 74.0%) compared with pre-disclosure (81/96, 84.4%); side effects were documented for most discontinued prescriptions (23/25, 92%). Among the 16 participants with claims data, medication adherence improved (proportion of days covered pre-disclosure of 70% [SD, 24.7%] to post-disclosure of 79.1% [SD, 27.3%]; P=0.05). Among the 52 (54%) participants with LDL cholesterol values both before and after disclosure, average LDL cholesterol decreased from 147 to 132 mg/dL (P=0.003). CONCLUSIONS: Despite disclosure of an FH risk variant, nonprescribing and nonadherence to lipid-lowering therapy remained high. However, when clinicians intensified medication regimens and participants adhered to medications, lipid levels decreased.

A genome-wide association study of polycystic ovary syndrome identified from electronic health records.

BACKGROUND: Polycystic ovary syndrome is the most common endocrine disorder affecting women of reproductive age. A number of criteria have been developed for clinical diagnosis of polycystic ovary syndrome, with the Rotterdam criteria being the most inclusive. Evidence suggests that polycystic ovary syndrome is significantly heritable, and previous studies have identified genetic variants associated with polycystic ovary syndrome diagnosed using different criteria. The widely adopted electronic health record system provides an opportunity to identify patients with polycystic ovary syndrome using the Rotterdam criteria for genetic studies. OBJECTIVE: To identify novel associated genetic variants under the same phenotype definition, we extracted polycystic ovary syndrome cases and unaffected controls based on the Rotterdam criteria from the electronic health records and performed a discovery-validation genome-wide association study. STUDY DESIGN: We developed a polycystic ovary syndrome phenotyping algorithm on the basis of the Rotterdam criteria and applied it to 3 electronic health record-linked biobanks to identify cases and controls for genetic study. In the discovery phase, we performed an individual genome-wide association study using the Geisinger MyCode and the Electronic Medical Records and Genomics cohorts, which were then meta-analyzed. We attempted validation of the significant association loci (P<1×10-6) in the BioVU cohort. All association analyses used logistic regression, assuming an additive genetic model, and adjusted for principal components to control for population stratification. An inverse-variance fixed-effect model was adopted for meta-analysis. In addition, we examined the top variants to evaluate their associations with each criterion in the phenotyping algorithm. We used the STRING database to characterize protein-protein interaction network. RESULTS: Using the same algorithm based on the Rotterdam criteria, we identified 2995 patients with polycystic ovary syndrome and 53,599 population controls in total (2742 cases and 51,438 controls from the discovery phase; 253 cases and 2161 controls in the validation phase). We identified 1 novel genome-wide significant variant rs17186366 (odds ratio [OR]=1.37 [1.23, 1.54], P=2.8×10-8) located near SOD2. In addition, 2 loci with suggestive association were also identified: rs113168128 (OR=1.72 [1.42, 2.10], P=5.2×10-8), an intronic variant of ERBB4 that is independent from the previously published variants, and rs144248326 (OR=2.13 [1.52, 2.86], P=8.45×10-7), a novel intronic variant in WWTR1. In the further association tests of the top 3 single-nucleotide polymorphisms with each criterion in the polycystic ovary syndrome algorithm, we found that rs17186366 (SOD2) was associated with polycystic ovaries and hyperandrogenism, whereas rs11316812 (ERBB4) and rs144248326 (WWTR1) were mainly associated with oligomenorrhea or infertility. We also validated the previously reported association with DENND1A1. Using the STRING database to characterize protein-protein interactions, we found both ERBB4 and WWTR1 can interact with YAP1, which has been previously associated with polycystic ovary syndrome. CONCLUSION: Through a discovery-validation genome-wide association study on polycystic ovary syndrome identified from electronic health records using an algorithm based on Rotterdam criteria, we identified and validated a novel genome-wide significant association with a variant near SOD2. We also identified a novel independent variant within ERBB4 and a suggestive association with WWTR1. With previously identified polycystic ovary syndrome gene YAP1, the ERBB4-YAP1-WWTR1 network suggests involvement of the epidermal growth factor receptor and the Hippo pathway in the multifactorial etiology of polycystic ovary syndrome.

Healthcare Utilization and Costs after Receiving a Positive BRCA1/2 Result from a Genomic Screening Program.

Population genomic screening has been demonstrated to detect at-risk individuals who would not be clinically identified otherwise. However, there are concerns about the increased utilization of unnecessary services and the associated increase in costs. The objectives of this study are twofold: (1) determine whether there is a difference in healthcare utilization and costs following disclosure of a pathogenic/likely pathogenic (P/LP) BRCA1/2 variant via a genomic screening program, and (2) measure the post-disclosure uptake of National Comprehensive Cancer Network (NCCN) guideline-recommended risk management. We retrospectively reviewed electronic health record (EHR) and billing data from a female population of BRCA1/2 P/LP variant carriers without a personal history of breast or ovarian cancer enrolled in Geisinger's MyCode genomic screening program with at least a one-year post-disclosure observation period. We identified 59 women for the study cohort out of 50,726 MyCode participants. We found no statistically significant differences in inpatient and outpatient utilization and average total costs between one-year pre- and one-year post-disclosure periods ($18,821 vs. $19,359, p = 0.76). During the first year post-disclosure, 49.2% of women had a genetic counseling visit, 45.8% had a mammography and 32.2% had an MRI. The uptake of mastectomy and oophorectomy was 3.5% and 11.8%, respectively, and 5% of patients received chemoprevention.

Prevalence and Electronic Health Record-Based Phenotype of Loss-of-Function Genetic Variants in Arrhythmogenic Right Ventricular Cardiomyopathy-Associated Genes.

BACKGROUND: Arrhythmogenic right ventricular cardiomyopathy (ARVC) is associated with variants in desmosome genes. Secondary findings of pathogenic/likely pathogenic variants, primarily loss-of-function (LOF) variants, are recommended for clinical reporting; however, their prevalence and associated phenotype in a general clinical population are not fully characterized. METHODS: From whole-exome sequencing of 61 019 individuals in the DiscovEHR cohort, we screened for putative loss-of-function variants in PKP2, DSC2, DSG2, and DSP. We evaluated measures from prior clinical ECG and echocardiograms, manually over-read to evaluate ARVC diagnostic criteria, and performed a PheWAS (phenome-wide association study). Finally, we estimated expected penetrance using Bayesian inference. RESULTS: One hundred forty individuals (0.23%; 59±18 years old at last encounter; 33% male) had an ARVC variant (G+). None had an existing diagnosis of ARVC in the electronic health record, nor significant differences in prior ECG or echocardiogram findings compared with matched controls without variants. Several G+ individuals satisfied major repolarization (n=4) and ventricular function (n=5) criteria, but this prevalence matched controls. PheWAS showed no significant associations of other heart disease diagnoses. Combining our best genetic and disease prevalence estimates yields an estimated penetrance of 6.0%. CONCLUSIONS: The prevalence of ARVC loss-of-function variants is ≈1:435 in a general clinical population of predominantly European descent, but with limited electronic health record-based evidence of phenotypic association in our population, consistent with a low penetrance estimate. Prospective deep phenotyping and longitudinal follow-up of a large sequenced cohort is needed to determine the true clinical relevance of an incidentally identified ARVC loss-of-function variant.

GSTM1 Copy Number Is Not Associated With Risk of Kidney Failure in a Large Cohort.

Deletion of glutathione S-transferase µ1 (GSTM1) is common in populations and has been asserted to associate with chronic kidney disease progression in some research studies. The association needs to be validated. We estimated GSTM1 copy number using whole exome sequencing data in the DiscovEHR cohort. Kidney failure was defined as requiring dialysis or receiving kidney transplant using data from the electronic health record and linkage to the United States Renal Data System, or the most recent eGFR < 15 ml/min/1.73 m2. In a cohort of 46,983 unrelated participants, 28.8% of blacks and 52.1% of whites had 0 copies of GSTM1. Over a mean of 9.2 years follow-up, 645 kidney failure events were observed in 46,187 white participants, and 28 in 796 black participants. No significant association was observed between GSTM1 copy number and kidney failure in Cox regression adjusting for age, sex, BMI, smoking status, genetic principal components, or comorbid conditions (hypertension, diabetes, heart failure, coronary artery disease, and stroke), whether using a genotypic, dominant, or recessive model. In sensitivity analyses, GSTM1 copy number was not associated with kidney failure in participants that were 45 years or older at baseline, had baseline eGFR < 60 ml/min/1.73 m2, or with baseline year between 1996 and 2002. In conclusion, we found no association between GSTM1 copy number and kidney failure in a large cohort study.

ALG9 Mutation Carriers Develop Kidney and Liver Cysts.

BACKGROUND: Mutations in PKD1 or PKD2 cause typical autosomal dominant polycystic kidney disease (ADPKD), the most common monogenic kidney disease. Dominantly inherited polycystic kidney and liver diseases on the ADPKD spectrum are also caused by mutations in at least six other genes required for protein biogenesis in the endoplasmic reticulum, the loss of which results in defective production of the PKD1 gene product, the membrane protein polycystin-1 (PC1). METHODS: We used whole-exome sequencing in a cohort of 122 patients with genetically unresolved clinical diagnosis of ADPKD or polycystic liver disease to identify a candidate gene, ALG9, and in vitro cell-based assays of PC1 protein maturation to functionally validate it. For further validation, we identified carriers of ALG9 loss-of-function mutations and noncarrier matched controls in a large exome-sequenced population-based cohort and evaluated the occurrence of polycystic phenotypes in both groups. RESULTS: Two patients in the clinically defined cohort had rare loss-of-function variants in ALG9, which encodes a protein required for addition of specific mannose molecules to the assembling N-glycan precursors in the endoplasmic reticulum lumen. In vitro assays showed that inactivation of Alg9 results in impaired maturation and defective glycosylation of PC1. Seven of the eight (88%) cases selected from the population-based cohort based on ALG9 mutation carrier state who had abdominal imaging after age 50; seven (88%) had at least four kidney cysts, compared with none in matched controls without ALG9 mutations. CONCLUSIONS: ALG9 is a novel disease gene in the genetically heterogeneous ADPKD spectrum. This study supports the utility of phenotype characterization in genetically-defined cohorts to validate novel disease genes, and provide much-needed genotype-phenotype correlations.

Exome Sequencing-Based Screening for BRCA1/2 Expected Pathogenic Variants Among Adult Biobank Participants.

Importance: Detection of disease-associated variants in the BRCA1 and BRCA2 (BRCA1/2) genes allows for cancer prevention and early diagnosis in high-risk individuals. Objectives: To identify pathogenic and likely pathogenic (P/LP) BRCA1/2 variants in an unselected research cohort, and to characterize the features associated with P/LP variants. Design, Setting, and Participants: This is a cross-sectional study of adult volunteers (n = 50 726) who underwent exome sequencing at a single health care system (Geisinger Health System, Danville, Pennsylvania) from January 1, 2014, to March 1, 2016. Participants are part of the DiscovEHR cohort and were identified through the Geisinger MyCode Community Health Initiative. They consented to a research protocol that included sequencing and return of actionable test results. Clinical data from electronic health records and clinical visits were correlated with variants. Comparisons were made between those with (cases) and those without (controls) P/LP variants in BRCA1/2. Main Outcomes: Prevalence of P/LP BRCA1/2 variants in cohort, proportion of variant carriers not previously ascertained through clinical testing, and personal and family history of relevant cancers among BRCA1/2 variant carriers and noncarriers. Results: Of the 50 726 health system patients who underwent exome sequencing, 50 459 (99.5%) had no expected pathogenic BRCA1/2 variants and 267 (0.5%) were BRCA1/2 carriers. Of the 267 cases (148 [55.4%] were women and 119 [44.6%] were men with a mean [range] age of 58.9 [23-90] years), 183 (68.5%) received clinically confirmed results in their electronic health record. Among the 267 participants with P/LP BRCA1/2 variants, 219 (82.0%) had no prior clinical testing, 95 (35.6%) had BRCA1 variants, and 172 (64.4%) had BRCA2 variants. Syndromic cancer diagnoses were present in 11 (47.8%) of the 23 deceased BRCA1/2 carriers and in 56 (20.9%) of all 267 BRCA1/2 carriers. Among women, 31 (20.9%) of 148 variant carriers had a personal history of breast cancer, compared with 1554 (5.2%) of 29 880 noncarriers (odds ratio [OR], 5.95; 95% CI, 3.88-9.13; P < .001). Ovarian cancer history was present in 15 (10.1%) of 148 variant carriers and in 195 (0.6%) of 29 880 variant noncarriers (OR, 18.30; 95% CI, 10.48-31.4; P < .001). Among 89 BRCA1/2 carriers without prior testing but with comprehensive personal and family history data, 44 (49.4%) did not meet published guidelines for clinical testing. Conclusions and Relevance: This study found that compared with previous clinical care, exome sequencing-based screening identified 5 times as many individuals with P/LP BRCA1/2 variants. These findings suggest that genomic screening may identify BRCA1/2-associated cancer risk that might otherwise remain undetected within health care systems and may provide opportunities to reduce morbidity and mortality in patients.

Electronic health record phenotype in subjects with genetic variants associated with arrhythmogenic right ventricular cardiomyopathy: a study of 30,716 subjects with exome sequencing.

PurposeArrhythmogenic right ventricular cardiomyopathy (ARVC) is an inherited heart disease. Clinical follow-up of incidental findings in ARVC-associated genes is recommended. We aimed to determine the prevalence of disease thus ascertained.MethodsIndividuals (n = 30,716) underwent exome sequencing. Variants in PKP2, DSG2, DSC2, DSP, JUP, TMEM43, or TGFß3 that were database-listed as pathogenic or likely pathogenic were identified and evidence-reviewed. For subjects with putative loss-of-function (pLOF) variants or variants of uncertain significance (VUS), electronic health records (EHR) were reviewed for ARVC diagnosis, diagnostic criteria, and International Classification of Diseases (ICD-9) codes.ResultsEighteen subjects had pLOF variants; none of these had an EHR diagnosis of ARVC. Of 14 patients with an electrocardiogram, one had a minor diagnostic criterion; the rest were normal. A total of 184 subjects had VUS, none of whom had an ARVC diagnosis. The proportion of subjects with VUS with major (4%) or minor (13%) electrocardiogram diagnostic criteria did not differ from that of variant-negative controls. ICD-9 codes showed no difference in defibrillator use, electrophysiologic abnormalities or nonischemic cardiomyopathies in patients with pLOF or VUSs compared with controls.ConclusionpLOF variants in an unselected cohort were not associated with ARVC phenotypes based on EHR review. The negative predictive value of EHR review remains uncertain.

Genetic identification of familial hypercholesterolemia within a single U.S. health care system.

Familial hypercholesterolemia (FH) remains underdiagnosed despite widespread cholesterol screening. Exome sequencing and electronic health record (EHR) data of 50,726 individuals were used to assess the prevalence and clinical impact of FH-associated genomic variants in the Geisinger Health System. The estimated FH prevalence was 1:256 in unselected participants and 1:118 in participants ascertained via the cardiac catheterization laboratory. FH variant carriers had significantly increased risk of coronary artery disease. Only 24% of carriers met EHR-based presequencing criteria for probable or definite FH diagnosis. Active statin use was identified in 58% of carriers; 46% of statin-treated carriers had a low-density lipoprotein cholesterol level below 100 mg/dl. Thus, we find that genomic screening can prompt the diagnosis of FH patients, most of whom are receiving inadequate lipid-lowering therapy.