Glucagon-like-peptide 1 receptor agonism and attempted suicide: A Mendelian randomisation study to assess a potential causal association.

Glucagon-like-peptide 1 receptor agonists (GLP-1RA) have transformed type 2 diabetes (T2D) and obesity management. Multiple regulatory agencies are investigating reported associations between GLP1-RA and increased suicide attempts (SA), but observational data may be prone to confounding. Randomised control trials (RCT) of GLP-1RA were largely undertaken in people at lower risk of SA. Real-world data suggest semaglutide use associates with reduced suicidal ideation and depression but was under-powered to statistically assess risk of SA. Mendelian randomisation (MR) leverages genetic instrument(s) to infer potential causal association between an exposure and an outcome. We undertook MR using missense variants in the gene encoding GLP1R that improve glycemia, lower T2D risk and/or lower BMI, to investigate potential causal association between GLP-1RA and SA. In people of European ancestry, MR did not find evidence genetically proxied GLP1RA increased SA in a general population cohort: (rs10305492, exposure: HbA1c, odds ratio [OR] and 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.38, 0.41-4.62, p = .60), (rs10305492, exposure: FG, OR 1.27, 0.52-3.13, p = .60) and (rs1042044, exposure BMI, OR 0.30, 0.06-1.48) with concordant results in a multi-ancestry SA case-control cohort. In conclusion, we did not find MR evidence that increased GLP-1RA impacts SA. This awaits confirmation with RCT and real-world data.

Investigating the association between fasting insulin, erythrocytosis and HbA1c through Mendelian randomization and observational analyses.

Background: Insulin resistance (IR) with associated compensatory hyperinsulinemia (HI) are early abnormalities in the etiology of prediabetes (preT2D) and type 2 diabetes (T2D). IR and HI also associate with increased erythrocytosis. Hemoglobin A1c (HbA1c) is commonly used to diagnose and monitor preT2D and T2D, but can be influenced by erythrocytosis independent of glycemia. Methods: We undertook bidirectional Mendelian randomization (MR) in individuals of European ancestry to investigate potential causal associations between increased fasting insulin adjusted for BMI (FI), erythrocytosis and its non-glycemic impact on HbA1c. We investigated the association between the triglyceride-glucose index (TGI), a surrogate measure of IR and HI, and glycation gap (difference between measured HbA1c and predicted HbA1c derived from linear regression of fasting glucose) in people with normoglycemia and preT2D. Results: Inverse variance weighted MR (IVWMR) suggested that increased FI increases hemoglobin (Hb, b=0.54 ± 0.09, p=2.7 x 10-10), red cell count (RCC, b=0.54 ± 0.12, p=5.38x10-6) and reticulocyte (RETIC, b=0.70 ± 0.15, p=2.18x10-6). Multivariable MR indicated that increased FI did not impact HbA1c (b=0.23 ± 0.16, p=0.162) but reduced HbA1c after adjustment for T2D (b=0.31 ± 0.13, p=0.016). Increased Hb (b=0.03 ± 0.01, p=0.02), RCC (b=0.02 ± 0.01, p=0.04) and RETIC (b=0.03 ± 0.01, p=0.002) might modestly increase FI. In the observational cohort, increased TGI associated with decreased glycation gap, (i.e., measured HbA1c was lower than expected based on fasting glucose, (b=-0.09 ± 0.009, p<0.0001)) in people with preT2D but not in those with normoglycemia (b=0.02 ± 0.007, p<0.0001). Conclusions: MR suggests increased FI increases erythrocytosis and might potentially decrease HbA1c by non-glycemic effects. Increased TGI, a surrogate measure of increased FI, associates with lower-than-expected HbA1c in people with preT2D. These findings merit confirmatory studies to evaluate their clinical significance.