Bayesian pairwise meta-analysis of time-to-event outcomes in the presence of non-proportional hazards: A simulation study of flexible parametric, piecewise exponential and fractional polynomial models.

BACKGROUND: Traditionally, meta-analysis of time-to-event outcomes reports a single pooled hazard ratio assuming proportional hazards (PH). For health technology assessment evaluations, hazard ratios are frequently extrapolated across a lifetime horizon. However, when treatment effects vary over time, an assumption of PH is not always valid. The Royston-Parmar (RP), piecewise exponential (PE), and fractional polynomial (FP) models can accommodate non-PH and provide plausible extrapolations of survival curves beyond observed data. METHODS: Simulation study to assess and compare the performance of RP, PE, and FP models in a Bayesian framework estimating restricted mean survival time difference (RMSTD) at 50 years from a pairwise meta-analysis with evidence of non-PH. Individual patient data were generated from a mixture Weibull distribution. Twelve scenarios were considered varying the amount of follow-up data, number of trials in a meta-analysis, non-PH interaction coefficient, and prior distributions. Performance was assessed through bias and mean squared error. Models were applied to a metastatic breast cancer example. RESULTS: FP models performed best when the non-PH interaction coefficient was 0.2. RP models performed best in scenarios with complete follow-up data. PE models performed well on average across all scenarios. In the metastatic breast cancer example, RMSTD at 50-years ranged from -14.6 to 8.48 months. CONCLUSIONS: Synthesis of time-to-event outcomes and estimation of RMSTD in the presence of non-PH can be challenging and computationally intensive. Different approaches make different assumptions regarding extrapolation and sensitivity analyses varying key assumptions are essential to check the robustness of conclusions to different assumptions for the underlying survival function.

The impact of varying levels of residual disease following cytoreductive surgery on survival outcomes in patients with ovarian cancer: a meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: Residual disease following cytoreductive surgery in patients with ovarian cancer has been associated with poorer survival outcomes compared with no residual disease. We performed a meta-analysis to assess the impact of varying levels of residual disease status on survival outcomes in patients with ovarian cancer who have undergone primary cytoreductive surgery or interval cytoreductive surgery in the setting of new therapies for this disease. METHODS: Medline, Embase, and Cochrane databases (January 2011 - July 2020) and grey literature, bibliographic and key conference proceedings, were searched for eligible studies. Fixed and random-effects meta-analyses compared progression and survival by residual disease level across studies. Heterogeneity between comparisons was explored via type of surgery, disease stage, and type of adjuvant chemotherapy. RESULTS: Of 2832 database and 16 supplementary search articles screened, 50 studies were selected; most were observational studies. The meta-analysis showed that median progression-free survival and overall survival decreased progressively with increasing residual disease (residual disease categories of 0 cm, > 0-1 cm and > 1 cm). Compared with no residual disease, hazard ratios (HR) for disease progression increased with increasing residual disease category (1.75 [95% confidence interval: 1.42, 2.16] for residual disease > 0-1 cm and 2.14 [1.34, 3.39] for residual disease > 1 cm), and also for reduced survival (HR versus no residual disease, 1.75 [ 1.62, 1.90] for residual disease > 0-1 cm and 2.32 [1.97, 2.72] for residual disease > 1 cm). All comparisons were significant (p < 0.05). Subgroup analyses showed an association between residual disease and disease progression/reduced survival irrespective of type of surgery, disease stage, or type of adjuvant chemotherapy. CONCLUSIONS: This meta-analysis provided an update on the impact of residual disease following primary or interval cytoreductive surgery, and demonstrated that residual disease was still highly predictive of progression-free survival and overall survival in adults with ovarian cancer despite changes in ovarian cancer therapy over the last decade. Higher numerical categories of residual disease were associated with reduced survival than lower categories.

Adding a Gene Expression Profile Test to Aid Differential Diagnosis and Treatment in Aggressive Large B-Cell Lymphoma: An Early Exploratory Economic Evaluation.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE: Adding gene expression profiles (GEPs) to the current diagnostic work-up of aggressive large B-cell lymphomas may lead to the reclassification of patients, treatment changes and improved outcomes. A GEP test is in development using TempO-Seq® technology to distinguish Burkitt lymphoma (BL) and primary mediastinal large B-cell lymphoma (PMBCL) from diffuse large B-cell lymphoma (DLBCL), and to classify patients with DLBLC and to predict the benefit of (e.g.) adding bortezomib to R-CHOP therapy (RB-CHOP). This study aims to estimate the potential impact of a GEP test on costs and health outcomes to inform pricing and evidence generation strategies. METHODS: Three decision models were developed comparing diagnostic strategies with and without GEP signatures over a lifetime horizon using a UK health and social care perspective. Inputs were taken from a recent clinical trial, literature and expert opinion. We estimated the maximum price of the test using a threshold of Great Britain Pound (GBP) 30,000 per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY). Sensitivity analyses were conducted. RESULTS: The estimated maximum threshold price for a combined test to be cost effective is GBP 15,352. At base-case values, the BL signature delivers QALY gains of 0.054 at an additional cost of GBP 275. This results in a net monetary benefit at a threshold of GBP 30,000 per QALY of GBP 1345. For PMBCL, the QALY gain was 0.0011 at a cost saving of GBP 406 and the net monetary benefit was GBP 437. The hazard ratio for the impact of treating BL less intensively must be at least 1.2 for a positive net monetary benefit. For identifying patients with the DLBCL subtype responsive to bortezomib, QALY gain was 0.2465 at a cost saving of GBP 6175, resulting in a net monetary benefit of GBP 13,570. In a probabilistic sensitivity analysis using 1000 simulations, a testing strategy was superior to a treat all with R-CHOP strategy in 81% of the simulations and with a cost saving in 92% assuming a cost price of zero. CONCLUSIONS: Our estimates show that the combined test has a high probability of being cost effective. There is good quality evidence for the benefit of subtyping DLBCL but the evidence on the number of patients reclassified to or from BL and PMBCL and the impact of a more precise diagnosis and the cost of treatment is weak. The developers can use the price estimate to inform a return on investment calculations. Evidence will be required of how well the TempO-Seq® technology performs compared to the testing GEP technology used for subtyping in the recent clinical trial. For BL and PMBCL elements of the test, evidence would be required of the number of patients reclassified and improved costing information would be useful. The diagnostic and therapeutic environment in haematological malignancies is fast moving, which increases the risk for developers of diagnostic tests.

Central Venous Access Devices for the Delivery of Systemic Anticancer Therapy: An Economic Evaluation.

OBJECTIVES: Patients undergoing long-term anticancer therapy typically require one of 3 venous access devices: Hickman-type device (HICK), peripherally inserted central catheter (PICC), or implantable chest wall port (PORT). Recent evidence has shown PORT is safer and improves patient satisfaction. However, PORT did not show improvement in quality-adjusted life-years and was more expensive. Decisions regarding cost-effectiveness in the United Kingdom are typically informed by a cost-per-quality-adjusted life-year metric. However, this approach is limited in its ability to capture the full range of relevant outcomes, especially in the context of medical devices. This study assessed the potential cost-effectiveness of HICK, PICC, and PORT in routine clinical practice. METHODS: This is a cost-consequence analysis to determine the trade-offs between the following outcomes: complication, infection, noninfection, chemotherapy interruption, unplanned device removals, health utilities, device insertion cost, follow-up cost, and total cost, using data from the Cancer and Venous Access clinical trial. We conducted value of implementation analysis of a PORT service. RESULTS: PORT was superior in terms of overall complication rate compared with both HICK (incidence rate ratio 0.422; 95% CI 0.286-0.622) and PICC (incidence rate ratio 0.295; 95% CI 0.189-0.458) and less likely to lead to an unplanned device removal. There was no difference in chemotherapy interruption or health utilities. Total cost with device in situ was lower on PORT than HICK (-£98.86; 95% CI -189.20 to -8.53) and comparable with PICC -£48.57 (95% CI -164.99 to 67.86). Value of implementation analysis found that PORT was likely to be considered cost-effective within the National Health Service. CONCLUSION: Decision makers should consider including PORT within the suite of venous access devices available within in the National Health Service.

Overall survival in the UK in mycosis fungoides or Sézary syndrome cutaneous T-cell lymphoma: comparative effectiveness of mogamulizumab versus current standard of care.

Aim: Due to extensive treatment switching in the MAVORIC trial, lack of UK regulatory licence for the comparator, overall survival (OS) with mogamulizumab was compared with patients with previously treated advanced mycosis fungoides/Sézary syndrome (MF/SS) in real-world setting. Design, setting & participants: Data were from the Hospital Episode Statistics database (all patients in NHS secondary care system in 2009-2019). Patients were selected according to trial inclusion criteria, then trial and HES samples were matched on selected variables with significant imbalance. Outcomes: The analysis indicated significant improvement in OS for mogamulizumab treatment compared with UK clinical practice (hazard ratio: 0.36, 95% CI: 0.24, 0.53). Conclusion: Results suggest an OS advantage for patients with advanced MF/SS treated with mogamulizumab in MAVORIC trial compared with UK clinical practice.

Correlation between progression-free survival and overall survival in patients with ovarian cancer after cytoreductive surgery: a systematic literature review.

OBJECTIVES: This analysis aimed to better define the relationship between progression-free survival and overall survival in adult patients with ovarian cancer (including fallopian tube or primary peritoneal cancer) following primary cytoreductive surgery or interval cytoreductive surgery. METHODS: A systematic literature review was carried out across the Medline, Embase, and Cochrane Central databases on 7 July 2020 (date limits 1 January 2011 to 7 July 2020) to identify studies with the following eligibility criteria: clinical trials/observational studies including >200 patients with ovarian cancer aged ≥18 years, evaluating overall survival/progression-free survival following cytoreductive surgery by residual disease status in the United States, Europe, Japan, or China. Weighted linear regression models were used to assess any correlation between median progression-free survival and overall survival, and between logHR for progression-free survival and logHR for overall survival. Risk of bias was assessed for all included studies. RESULTS: Of the 50 studies reported, 43 were observational studies (41 retrospective and two prospective cohort studies), and seven were reporting for randomized clinical trials-of which four were retrospective data analyses. For analyses of the relationship between overall survival and progression-free survival, 21 studies were eligible. The weighted linear regression model showed a strong positive association between the two survival endpoints. Goodness-of-fit analysis measured the adjusted R2 as 0.84 (p<0.001); a positive association was also observed between logHRs for overall survival and progression-free survival in the included studies. CONCLUSIONS: Median progression-free survival was predictive of median overall survival. This correlation between progression-free survival and overall survival after primary treatment for ovarian cancer highlights the validity of progression-free survival as a primary endpoint. Observational studies contributed most data, with limited information on disease stage and histology.

Is Intention to Treat Still the Gold Standard or Should Health Technology Assessment Agencies Embrace a Broader Estimands Framework?: Insights and Perspectives From the National Institute for Health and Care Excellence and Institut für Qualität und Wirtschaftlichkeit im Gesundheitswesen on the International Council for Harmonisation of Technical Requirements for Pharmaceuticals for Human Use E9 (R1) Addendum.

OBJECTIVES: The International Council for Harmonisation of Technical Requirements for Pharmaceuticals for Human Use (ICH) E9 (R1) addendum will have an important impact on the design and analysis of randomized controlled clinical trials, which represent crucial sources of evidence in health technology assessments, and on the intention-to-treat (ITT) principle in particular. This article brings together a task force of health economists and statisticians in academic institutes and the pharmaceutical industry, to examine the implications of the addendum from the perspective of the National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE) and the Institut für Qualität und Wirtschaftlichkeit im Gesundheitswesen (IQWiG) and to address the question of whether the ITT principle should be considered the gold standard for estimating treatment effects. METHODS: We review the ITT principle, as introduced in the ICH E9 guideline. We then present an overview of the ICH E9 (R1) addendum and its estimand framework, highlighting its premise and the proposed strategies for handling intercurrent events, and examine some cases among submissions to IQWiG and NICE. RESULTS: IQWiG and NICE appear to have diverging perspectives around the relevance of the ITT principle and, in particular, the acceptance of hypothetical strategies for estimating treatment effects, as suggested by examples where the sponsor proposed an alternative approach to the ITT principle when accounting for treatment switching for interventional oncology trials. CONCLUSIONS: The ICH E9 (R1) addendum supports the use of methods that depart from the ITT principle. The relevance of estimands using these methods depends on the perspectives and objectives of payers. It is challenging to design a study that meets all stakeholders' research questions. Different estimands may serve to answer different relevant questions or decision problems.

Lipid Lowering in "Very High Risk" Patients Undergoing Coronary Artery Bypass Surgery and Its Projected Reduction in Risk for Recurrent Vascular Events: A Monte Carlo Stepwise Simulation Approach.

ABSTRACT: 2018 AHA guidelines provide criteria to identify patients at very high risk (VHR) for adverse vascular events and recommend an low density lipoprotein-C (LDL-C) level <1.8 mmol/L. Data regarding the 10-year risk for adverse vascular events in coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG) patients at VHR and the need for nonstatin therapies in the VHR cohort are limited. We queried a national cohort of CABG patients to answer these questions. The projected reduction of LDL-C from stepwise escalation of lipid-lowering therapy (LLT) was simulated; Monte Carlo methods were used to account for patient-level heterogeneity in treatment effects. Data on preoperative statin therapy and LDL-C levels were obtained. In the first scenario, all eligible patients not at target LDL-C received high-intensity statins, followed by ezetimibe and then alirocumab; alternatively, bempedoic acid was also used. The 10-year risk for an adverse vascular event was estimated using a validated risk score. Potential risk reduction was estimated after simulating maximal LLT. Before CABG, 8948 of 27,443 patients (median LDL-C 85 mg/dL) were at VHR. In the whole cohort, 31% were receiving high-intensity statins. With stepwise LLT escalation, the proportion of patients at target were 60%, 78%, 86%, and 97% after high-intensity statins, ezetimibe, bempedoic acid, and alirocumab, respectively. The projected 10-year risk to suffer a vascular event reduced by 4.6%. A large proportion of CABG patients who are at VHR for vascular events fail to meet 2018 AHA LDL-C targets. A stepwise approach, particularly with the use of bempedoic acid, can significantly reduce the need for more expensive proprotein convertase subtilisin kexin 9 inhibitors.

Adjusting for treatment crossover in the MAVORIC trial: survival in advanced mycosis fungoides and Sézary syndrome.

Background: Relative overall survival (OS) estimates reported in the MAVORIC trial are potentially confounded by a high proportion of patients randomized to vorinostat switching to mogamulizumab; furthermore, vorinostat is not used in clinical practice in the UK. Methods: Three methods were considered for crossover adjustment. Survival post-crossover adjustment was compared with data from the Hospital Episode Statistics (HES) to contextualize estimates. Results: Following adjustment, the OS hazard ratio for mogamulizumab versus vorinostat was 0.42 (95% CI: 0.18, 0.98) using the method considered most appropriate based on an assessment of assumptions and comparison with HES. Conclusions: OS of mogamulizumab relative to vorinostat may be underestimated in MAVORIC due to the presence of crossover. The HES database was used to validate this adjustment.

Challenges of modelling approaches for network meta-analysis of time-to-event outcomes in the presence of non-proportional hazards to aid decision making: Application to a melanoma network.

BACKGROUND: Synthesis of clinical effectiveness from multiple trials is a well-established component of decision-making. Time-to-event outcomes are often synthesised using the Cox proportional hazards model assuming a constant hazard ratio over time. However, with an increasing proportion of trials reporting treatment effects where hazard ratios vary over time and with differing lengths of follow-up across trials, alternative synthesis methods are needed. OBJECTIVES: To compare and contrast five modelling approaches for synthesis of time-to-event outcomes and provide guidance on key considerations for choosing between the modelling approaches. METHODS: The Cox proportional hazards model and five other methods of estimating treatment effects from time-to-event outcomes, which relax the proportional hazards assumption, were applied to a network of melanoma trials reporting overall survival: restricted mean survival time, generalised gamma, piecewise exponential, fractional polynomial and Royston-Parmar models. RESULTS: All models fitted the melanoma network acceptably well. However, there were important differences in extrapolations of the survival curve and interpretability of the modelling constraints demonstrating the potential for different conclusions from different modelling approaches. CONCLUSION: The restricted mean survival time, generalised gamma, piecewise exponential, fractional polynomial and Royston-Parmar models can accommodate non-proportional hazards and differing lengths of trial follow-up within a network meta-analysis of time-to-event outcomes. We recommend that model choice is informed using available and relevant prior knowledge, model transparency, graphically comparing survival curves alongside observed data to aid consideration of the reliability of the survival estimates, and consideration of how the treatment effect estimates can be incorporated within a decision model.

Exploring the Impact of Treatment Switching on Overall Survival from the PROfound Study in Homologous Recombination Repair (HRR)-Mutated Metastatic Castration-Resistant Prostate Cancer (mCRPC).

BACKGROUND: In oncology trials, treatment switching from the comparator to the experimental regimen is often allowed but may lead to underestimating overall survival (OS) of an experimental therapy. OBJECTIVE: This study evaluates the impact of treatment switching from control to olaparib on OS using the final survival data from the PROfound study and compares validated adjustment methods to estimate the magnitude of OS benefit with olaparib. PATIENTS AND METHODS: The primary population from PROfound (Cohort A) was included, alongside two populations approved for treatment with olaparib by the European Medicines Agency and US Food and Drug Administration: BRCAm and Cohort A+B (excluding the PPP2R2A gene). Five methods were explored to adjust for switching: excluding or censoring patients in the control arm who receive subsequent olaparib, Rank Preserving Structural Failure Time Model (RPSFTM), Inverse Probability of Censoring Weights, and Two-Stage Estimation. RESULTS: The RPSFTM was considered the most appropriate approach for PROfound as the results were robust to sensitivity analysis testing of the common treatment effect assumption. For Cohort A, the final OS hazard ratio reduced from 0.69 (95% CI 0.5-0.97) to between 0.42 (0.18-0.90) and 0.52 (0.31-1.00) for olaparib versus control, depending on the RPSFTM selected. Median OS reduced from 14.7 months to between 11.73 and 12.63 months for control. CONCLUSIONS: The magnitude of the statistically significant (P < 0.05) survival benefit of olaparib versus control observed in Cohort A of PROfound is likely to be underestimated if adjustment for treatment switching from control to olaparib is not conducted. The RPSFTM was considered the most plausible method, although further development and validation of robust methods to estimate the magnitude of impact of treatment switching is needed.

Systematic review and network meta-analyses of third-line treatments for metastatic colorectal cancer.

BACKGROUND: Limited treatment options are available in chemotherapy-refractory metastatic colorectal cancer (mCRC). The objective was to conduct a systematic literature review (SLR) and exploratory network meta-analysis (NMA) to compare the tolerability and effectiveness of SIRT with Y-90 resin microspheres, regorafenib, TAS-102 (trifluridine/tipiracil), and best supportive care (BSC) as third-line treatment in patients with mCRC. METHODS: An SLR was conducted to identify studies comparing two or more of the treatments and reporting overall survival (OS), progression-free survival, tumor response, or adverse event (AE) incidence. An exploratory NMA was conducted to compare hazard ratios (HRs) for OS using Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) techniques. RESULTS: Seven studies were identified in the SLR: two double-blind randomized-controlled trials (RCT) for each drug, one open-label RCT, and two non-randomized comparative studies for SIRT. Patient selection criteria differed between studies, with SIRT studies including patients with liver-dominant colorectal metastases. Nausea and vomiting were more frequent with TAS-102 than regorafenib or SIRT; diarrhea was more common with TAS-102 and regorafenib than SIRT. The exploratory NMA suggested that all active treatments improved OS, with HRs of 0.48 (95% CrI 0.30-0.78) for SIRT with Y-90 resin microspheres, 0.63 (0.38-1.03) for TAS-102, and 0.67 (0.40-1.08) for regorafenib each compared to BSC. CONCLUSIONS: Regorafenib, TAS-102 and SIRT using Y-90 resin microspheres are more effective than BSC in third-line treatment of mCRC; however, study heterogeneity made comparisons between active treatments challenging. SIRT is a viable treatment for third-line mCRC and its favorable AE profile should be considered in the therapeutic decision-making process.

Cryptococcal Meningitis Screening and Community-based Early Adherence Support in People With Advanced Human Immunodeficiency Virus Infection Starting Antiretroviral Therapy in Tanzania and Zambia: A Cost-effectiveness Analysis.

BACKGROUND: A randomized trial demonstrated that among people living with late-stage human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection initiating antiretroviral therapy, screening serum for cryptococcal antigen (CrAg) combined with adherence support reduced all-cause mortality by 28%, compared with standard clinic-based care. Here, we present the cost-effectiveness. METHODS: HIV-infected adults with CD4 count <200 cells/µL were randomized to either CrAg screening plus 4 weekly home visits to provide adherence support or to standard clinic-based care in Dar es Salaam and Lusaka. The primary economic outcome was health service care cost per life-year saved as the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER), based on 2017 US dollars. We used nonparametric bootstrapping to assess uncertainties and univariate deterministic sensitivity analysis to examine the impact of individual parameters on the ICER. RESULTS: Among the intervention and standard arms, 1001 and 998 participants, respectively, were enrolled. The annual mean cost per participant in the intervention arm was US$339 (95% confidence interval [CI], $331-$347), resulting in an incremental cost of the intervention of US$77 (95% CI, $66-$88). The incremental cost was similar when analysis was restricted to persons with CD4 count <100 cells/µL. The ICER for the intervention vs standard care, per life-year saved, was US$70 (95% CI, $43-$211) for all participants with CD4 count up to 200 cells/µL and US$91 (95% CI, $49-$443) among those with CD4 counts <100 cells /µL. Cost-effectveness was most sensitive to mortality estimates. CONCLUSIONS: Screening for cryptococcal antigen combined with a short period of adherence support, is cost-effective in resource-limited settings.

Evaluation of the Economic Burden of Psoriatic Arthritis and the Relationship Between Functional Status and Healthcare Costs.

OBJECTIVE: This analysis aimed to evaluate the economic burden of patients with psoriatic arthritis (PsA) on the UK healthcare system and estimate the relationship between functional status and direct healthcare costs. METHODS: Functional status [measured using the Health Assessment Questionnaire-Disability Index (HAQ-DI)], demographics, disease history, and healthcare resource use data were extracted from a cohort of patients at the Royal National Hospital for Rheumatic Diseases, Bath, UK. Each resource use item per patient was then allocated a unit cost. Linear regression models were used to predict costs as a function of HAQ-DI. Medication costs were not included in the primary analysis, which was carried out from the UK National Health Service perspective. RESULTS: Data were available for 101 patients. Mean HAQ-DI score was 0.84 (SD 0.75) and mean age at HAQ-DI measurement was 57.8 (SD 10.7). Total annual healthcare costs per patient, excluding medication costs, ranged between £174 and £8854, with a mean of £1586 (SD £1639). A 1-point increase in HAQ-DI score was associated with an increase in total costs of £547.49 (standard error £224), with secondary care consultations appearing to be the primary factor. Subgroup analyses suggested higher cost increases in patients with HAQ-DI scores of 2-3 and with a disease duration > 10 years. CONCLUSION: Patients with PsA place a significant economic burden on the healthcare system. Functional status is highly correlated with costs and appears to be driven mainly by the cost of secondary care consultations. Results were similar to previous studies in rheumatoid arthritis populations.

Tumor burden and liver function in HCC patient selection for selective internal radiation therapy: SARAH post-hoc study.

Aim: To determine whether a liver tumor burden ≤25% and well-preserved liver function (albumin-bilirubin grade 1) are appropriate criteria for identifying patients with unresectable hepatocellular carcinoma who may benefit from selective internal radiation therapy (SIRT) using 90yttrium resin microspheres versus sorafenib. Patients & methods: Post-hoc analysis of patients in the intention-to-treat population of the SARAH trial (SIRT vs sorafenib) with ≤25% tumor burden and albumin-bilirubin grade 1. Primary end point: overall survival. Results: Median overall survival was 21.9 months (95% CI: 15.2-32.5, n = 37) with SIRT and 17.0 months (11.6-20.8, n = 48) with sorafenib (hazard ratios: 0.73; 95% CI: 0.44-1.21; p = 0.22). Conclusion: A combination of good liver function and low tumor burden may be relevant for selection of hepatocellular carcinoma patients for SIRT.

Context-Specific Economic Evaluation for Molecular Pathology Tests: An Application in Colorectal Cancer in the West of Scotland.

OBJECTIVES: The cost-effectiveness of molecular pathology testing is highly context dependent. The field is fast-moving, and national health technology assessment may not be relevant or timely for local decision makers. This study illustrates a method of context-specific economic evaluation that can be carried out in a limited timescale without extensive resources. METHODS: We established a multi-disciplinary group including an oncologist, pathologists and a health economist. We set out diagnostic and treatment pathways and costs using registry data, health technology assessments, guidelines, audit data, and estimates from the group. Sensitivity analysis varied input parameters across plausible ranges. The evaluation setting was the West of Scotland and UK NHS perspective was adopted. The evaluation was assessed against the AdHopHTA checklist for hospital-based health technology assessment. RESULTS: A context-specific economic evaluation could be carried out on a timely basis using limited resources. The evaluation met all relevant criteria in the AdHopHTA checklist. Health outcomes were expected to be at least equal to the current strategy. Annual cost savings of £637,000 were estimated resulting primarily from a reduction in the proportion of patients receiving intravenous infusional chemotherapy regimens. The result was not sensitive to any parameter. The data driving the main cost saving came from a small clinical audit. We recommended this finding was confirmed in a larger population. CONCLUSIONS: The method could be used to evaluate testing changes elsewhere. The results of the case study may be transferable to other jurisdictions where the organization of cancer services is fragmented.

Economic evaluation of the introduction of the Prostate Health Index as a rule-out test to avoid unnecessary biopsies in men with prostate specific antigen levels of 4-10 in Hong Kong.

A recent study showed that the Prostate Health Index may avoid unnecessary biopsies in men with prostate specific antigen 4-10ng/ml and normal digital rectal examination in the diagnosis of prostate cancer in Hong Kong. This study aimed to conduct an economic evaluation of the impact of adopting this commercially-available test in the Hong Kong public health service to determine whether further research is justified. A cost-consequence analysis was undertaken comparing the current diagnostic pathway with a proposed diagnostic pathway using the Prostate Health Index. Data for the model was taken from a prospective cohort study recruited at a single-institution and micro-costing studies. Using a cut off PHI score of 35 to avoid biopsy would cost HK$3,000 and save HK$7,988 per patient in biopsy costs and HK$511 from a reduction in biopsy-related adverse events. The net cost impact of the change was estimated to be HK$5,500 under base case assumptions. At the base case sensitivity and specificity for all grades of cancer (61.3% and 77.5% respectively) all grade cancer could be missed in 4.22% of the population and high grade cancer in 0.53%. The introduction of the prostate health index into the diagnostic pathway for prostate cancer in Hong Kong has the potential to reduce biopsies, biopsy costs and biopsy-related adverse events. Policy makers should consider the clinical and economic impact of this proposal.

An efficacy comparison of anti-vascular growth factor agents and laser photocoagulation in diabetic macular edema: a network meta-analysis incorporating individual patient-level data.

BACKGROUND: This was an updated network meta-analysis (NMA) of anti-vascular endothelial growth factor (VEGF) agents and laser photocoagulation in patients with diabetic macular edema (DME). Unlike previous NMA that used meta-regression to account for potential confounding by systematic variation in treatment effect modifiers across studies, this update incorporated individual patient-level data (IPD) regression to provide more robust adjustment. METHODS: An updated review was conducted to identify randomised controlled trials for inclusion in a Bayesian NMA. The network included intravitreal aflibercept (IVT-AFL) 2 mg bimonthly (2q8) after 5 initial doses, ranibizumab 0.5 mg as-needed (PRN), ranibizumab 0.5 mg treat-and-extend (T&E), and laser photocoagulation. Outcomes included in the analysis were change in best-corrected visual acuity (BCVA), measured using an Early Treatment Diabetic Retinopathy Study (ETDRS) chart, and patients with ≥10 and ≥ 15 ETDRS letter gains/losses at 12 months. Analyses were performed using networks restricted to IPD-only and IPD and aggregate data with (i) no covariable adjustment, (ii) covariable adjustment for baseline BVCA assuming common interaction effects (against reference treatment), and (iii) covariable adjustments specific to each treatment comparison (restricted to IPD-only network). RESULTS: Thirteen trials were included in the analysis. IVT-AFL 2q8 was superior to laser in all analyses. IVT-AFL 2q8 showed strong evidence of superiority (95% credible interval [CrI] did not cross null) versus ranibizumab 0.5 mg PRN for mean change in BCVA (mean difference 5.20, 95% CrI 1.90-8.52 ETDRS letters), ≥15 ETDRS letter gain (odds ratio [OR] 2.30, 95% CrI 1.12-4.20), and ≥10 ETDRS letter loss (OR 0.25, 95% CrI 0.05-0.74) (IPD and aggregate random-effects model with baseline BCVA adjustment). IVT-AFL 2q8 was not superior to ranibizumab 0.5 mg T&E for mean change in BCVA (mean difference 5.15, 95% CrI -0.26-10.61 ETDRS letters) (IPD and aggregate random-effects model). CONCLUSIONS: This NMA, which incorporated IPD to improve analytic robustness, showed evidence of superiority of IVT-AFL 2q8 to laser and ranibizumab 0.5 mg PRN. These results were irrespective of adjustment for baseline BCVA.

A systematic review of hepatitis B screening economic evaluations in low- and middle-income countries.

BACKGROUND: Chronic hepatitis B infection is a significant cause of morbidity and mortality worldwide; low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) are disproportionately affected. Economic evaluations are a useful decision tool to assess costs versus benefits of hepatitis B virus (HBV) screening. No published study reviewing economic evaluations of HBV screening in LMICs has been undertaken to date. METHODS: The following databases were searched from inception to 21 April 2017: MEDLINE, PubMed, EMBASE, CINAHL Plus, the Cochrane Library, Global Health and the Cost-effectiveness Analysis Registry. English-language studies were included if they assessed the costs against the benefits of HBV screening in LMICs. PROSPERO registration: CRD42015024391, 20 July 2015. RESULTS: Nine studies fulfilled the eligibility criteria. One study from Thailand indicated that adding hepatitis B immunoglobulin (HBIG) to HBV vaccination for newborns following screening of pregnant women might be cost-effective for some LMICs, though inadequate total funding and health infrastructure were likely to limit feasibility. A similar study from China indicated a benefit to cost ratio of 2.7 from selective HBIG administration to newborns, if benefits were considered from a societal perspective. Of the two studies assessing screening amongst the general adult population, a single cost-benefit analysis from China found a benefit to cost ratio (BCR) of 1.73 with vaccination guided by HBV screening of adults aged 21-39, compared to 1.42 with vaccination with no screening, both from a societal perspective. Community-based screening of adults in The Gambia with linkage to treatment yielded an incremental cost per disability-adjusted life year averted of $566 (in 2017 USD), less than two-times gross domestic product per capita for that country. CONCLUSIONS: Screening with 'catch-up' vaccination for younger adults yielded benefits above costs, and screening linked with treatment has shown cost-effectiveness that may be affordable for some LMICs. However, interpretation needs to account for total cost implications and further research in LMICs is warranted as there were only nine included studies and evidence from high-income countries is not always directly applicable.